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View Full Version : Baseball Prospectus note on Josh Hamilton's return



mbgrayson
08-11-2007, 03:46 PM
From Basebal Prospectus: (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6577)
Under The Knife
(http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6577)Knee Problems

by Will Carroll

"Josh Hamilton (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hamiljo03.shtml) is closer to a return. The Reds (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=CIN) continue to keep the pace of his return slow for no apparent reason. More than one emailer asked why the Reds would want to make the typical Rule 5 move of "hiding" someone on the DL with a player as talented as Hamilton when the team really has no better option. It's one thing to do it with Adam Stern (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/sternad01.php) when Boston was loaded, but do the Reds really believe that Norris Hopper (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/hoppeno01.php) is a better option than Hamilton? Reds sources tell me that the team is convinced they are doing the right thing for Hamilton, making sure that he's absolutely ready to return and that there's no pressure. Also, we have to remember that Hamilton is being helped by Johnny Narron, brother of the ex-manager, and that could be an awkward situation. Hamilton will be back, but no one's in a rush. "


Interesting......

flyer85
08-11-2007, 03:55 PM
with this bunch ... you just never know.

11larkin11
08-11-2007, 03:57 PM
but do the Reds really believe that Norris Hopper is a better option than Hamilton

Marty does. He said it last night.

Sabo Fan
08-11-2007, 04:13 PM
I'm perfectly fine with waiting to make sure Hamilton's good to go. Here's a guy who hasn't played even a half season of baseball since I don't know when and who needs to build up some stamina so that he doesn't injure himself again. Sure he's a better option than Hopper, but this is a lost season and there's no incentive to rush him back just to play out the string. Let him rest for a while, let him come back and play the last month and a half and be completely healthy for 2008.

redsrule2500
08-11-2007, 04:34 PM
Why not Hamilton, Hopper, Griffey outfield and Freel back to utility?

This, of course, is once we let Dunn go ;)

11larkin11
08-11-2007, 04:36 PM
If we let go of Dunn or Griffey, Jay Bruce better be in the OF on Opening Day next year.

KronoRed
08-11-2007, 04:46 PM
Hopper is fine as a backup, he should never ever be a teams season long solution as a starting outfielder

RedsBaron
08-11-2007, 05:01 PM
Marty does. He said it last night.

And as he says, Marty will be here when we're gone. As a matter of fact, Marty is doing all he can to make sure the rest of us leave.

TeamBoone
08-12-2007, 12:20 AM
I'm perfectly fine with waiting to make sure Hamilton's good to go. Here's a guy who hasn't played even a half season of baseball since I don't know when and who needs to build up some stamina so that he doesn't injure himself again. Sure he's a better option than Hopper, but this is a lost season and there's no incentive to rush him back just to play out the string. Let him rest for a while, let him come back and play the last month and a half and be completely healthy for 2008.

I don't mean to sidetrack the thread, but why do people keep saying this... including Marty today.

The Reds play 30 games within the NL central before the season ends. IMHO, they're playing decent ball right now and anything can happen.

The season isn't over and quite possibly, neither are the Reds.

KronoRed
08-12-2007, 12:29 AM
TB at some point you have to accept the season is over and start thinking about the guys who are going to be here next year.

Ron Madden
08-12-2007, 12:36 AM
I heard the Reds will evaluate Josh Hamilton in Cincy tomorrow.

Who goes down if Josh is ready to return to the roster?

mth123
08-12-2007, 01:01 AM
I heard the Reds will evaluate Josh Hamilton in Cincy tomorrow.

Who goes down if Josh is ready to return to the roster?

Bellhorn unless somebody's drinking too much.

TeamBoone
08-12-2007, 01:37 AM
TB at some point you have to accept the season is over and start thinking about the guys who are going to be here next year.

But... I'm not throwing in the towel yet, even though everyone else apparently has. Like I said... 30 more intradivision games to be played.

I still have faith. Hmmm, maybe I should go to the Faith Day game.

Big Klu
08-12-2007, 01:54 AM
Bellhorn unless somebody's drinking too much.

Or Ellison. Or Majewski. Or maybe Conine and/or Stanton get traded.

KronoRed
08-12-2007, 03:10 AM
But... I'm not throwing in the towel yet, even though everyone else apparently has. Like I said... 30 more intradivision games to be played.

I still have faith. Hmmm, maybe I should go to the Faith Day game.

It's over TB, lets think about 2008 ;)

Eric_Davis
08-12-2007, 04:59 AM
I'm perfectly fine with waiting to make sure Hamilton's good to go. Here's a guy who hasn't played even a half season of baseball since I don't know when and who needs to build up some stamina so that he doesn't injure himself again. Sure he's a better option than Hopper, but this is a lost season and there's no incentive to rush him back just to play out the string. Let him rest for a while, let him come back and play the last month and a half and be completely healthy for 2008.


It's not like he's being hurt by being down there. There's so much for him to learn.

mth123
08-12-2007, 06:19 AM
Or Ellison. Or Majewski. Or maybe Conine and/or Stanton get traded.

All good candidates. I actually forgot about Elison and I'd be happy for Stanton to go but I was thinking a position player would go. Any of these options would be ok by me. I actually like the idea of Dumping Stanton and the $3 Million owed in 2008 the best. I hope that happens but it doesn't seem likely at this point.

LINEDRIVER
08-12-2007, 07:12 AM
If we let go of Dunn or Griffey, Jay Bruce better be in the OF on Opening Day next year.

Bruce will turn 21 on April 3, 2008.

Just curious.....Do you think that 250 or less minor league career AB's against AA and AAA pitching will have him ready for the big leagues in '08??

redsmetz
08-12-2007, 09:28 AM
Bruce will turn 21 on April 3, 2008.

Just curious.....Do you think that 250 or less minor league career AB's against AA and AAA pitching will have him ready for the big leagues in '08??

I know so many are chomping at the bit to get our future here now, if not sooner; I think he needs more seasoning at AAA. Maybe a late '08 call up, otherwise in 2009. Maybe moving one of our outfielders moves before the trade deadline next year and Bruce slides in there. I could see Junior being moved mid-season next year to a contender.

I do expect Votto to make the club out of Spring Training.

Unassisted
08-12-2007, 09:53 AM
Could it be a service time issue? I see nothing wrong with the Reds keeping Hamilton from becoming arb-eligible any sooner than they have to.

Big Klu
08-12-2007, 10:33 AM
Could it be a service time issue? I see nothing wrong with the Reds keeping Hamilton from becoming arb-eligible any sooner than they have to.

Service time isn't an issue. Hamilton is on the disabled list, so he is still accumulating service time.

mbgrayson
08-12-2007, 10:45 AM
Could it be a service time issue? I see nothing wrong with the Reds keeping Hamilton from becoming arb-eligible any sooner than they have to.

I am worried about Hamilton getting enough days of time with the Reds to be able to keep under Rule 5 guidelines. He will need 90 days on the active roster(25 man) for the Reds to keep him.

Anyone know how many more days he needs?

IslandRed
08-12-2007, 12:29 PM
I am worried about Hamilton getting enough days of time with the Reds to be able to keep uder Rule 5 guidelines. He will need 90 days on the active roster(25 man) for the Reds to keep him.

Anyone know how many more days he needs?

If I'm properly counting which days he was on the DL, he's around 72 games now, so he'll be fine. Worst case, when the active roster expands in September he can come up and log the time even if he can't play for some reason.

mth123
08-12-2007, 12:36 PM
Hamilton Activated and Bellhorn DFA per Trent.

remdog
08-12-2007, 01:55 PM
I don't mean to sidetrack the thread, but why do people keep saying this... including Marty today.

The Reds play 30 games within the NL central before the season ends. IMHO, they're playing decent ball right now and anything can happen.

The season isn't over and quite possibly, neither are the Reds.

Playing 'decent ball' in '06 was a big contributing factor to the scintillating acqusitions the Reds made in the off season. :)

Rem

KronoRed
08-12-2007, 02:22 PM
Bruce will turn 21 on April 3, 2008.

Just curious.....Do you think that 250 or less minor league career AB's against AA and AAA pitching will have him ready for the big leagues in '08??

Dunno about anyone else but I sure don't, yet the expectations for him are already growing, if he doesn't dominate on arrival and win rookie of the year I bet we start to hear he's a disappointment :confused:

TeamBoone
08-12-2007, 06:25 PM
Playing 'decent ball' in '06 was a big contributing factor to the scintillating acqusitions the Reds made in the off season. :)


That's management's fault and should not deter from putting the best players on the field during the current season instead of auditioning those on the bench and using pitchers in a close game who can not pitch.

REDREAD
08-12-2007, 07:29 PM
Could it be a service time issue? I see nothing wrong with the Reds keeping Hamilton from becoming arb-eligible any sooner than they have to.

No, that's not it, because he accumulates service time on the DL.

I have no problem with making sure Josh is 100% before activating him. I'm glad they are erring on the side of caution.

Think about how many times they rushed Jr before he was ready, and how many times he reinjured himself. I don't want them to repeat that mistake with Josh.

Last season, I wanted the Reds to shut down Maj for the entire season, since he had tendonitis/tired arm. It might not have made a difference to give him extra rest, but it might've helped.

Anyhow, I'm glad they are being extra cautious. It's a welcome change to the way they normally do things.

remdog
08-12-2007, 08:15 PM
That's management's fault and should not deter from putting the best players on the field during the current season instead of auditioning those on the bench and using pitchers in a close game who can not pitch.

That's a fair point, TB. Tom it appers that management simply can't judge talent regardless of the situation the team is in. :eek:

Rem