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Eric_Davis
08-12-2007, 05:49 AM
Anywhere you start him he deserves it with numbers like that.

Whoever hits in front of him has got to benefit from that.

I suppose word's getting around the league about him by now.

He doesn't walk much. Only 6 in those 90 plate appearances.

His Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC27) is at 8.29 compared to Hopper's 3.99, Dunn's 6.79, Junior's 7.27, Phillips' 4.73, Hatteberg's 7.23, Conine's 4.53, Valentin's 4.73, Ross' 3.31, Freel's 3.60, Hamilton's 7.03 and Encarnacion's 4.92.

Less I forget....Castro's is a whopping 1.05! LOL

BuckeyeRedleg
08-12-2007, 09:47 AM
The sad thing about this organization is that if Castro has not gotten hurt, Keppinger would have probably not received the chance.

AmarilloRed
08-12-2007, 10:00 AM
He really has been unbelievable this year.

Muggerd
08-12-2007, 10:00 AM
when you are hitting .354 there normally isnt much room to walk. :laugh:

pahster
08-12-2007, 11:47 AM
Keppinger's been very good so far. But lets not forget that he's only had 90 PAs this year.

I was definitely in favor of him starting the year with the Reds over the likes of Castro.

HumnHilghtFreel
08-12-2007, 11:56 AM
He definitely makes the most of his opportunities and has made a fan out of me so far, but as Pahster said, its only a small sampling.

Patrick Bateman
08-12-2007, 01:45 PM
He needed to be on the roster since day 1. But his future is still as a utility player. He has some nice skills (being able to hit the ball), but he's not very patient, and has little power. That makes him a fantastic utility player. In a lot of ways he's like Freddy Sanchez. He's another guy that is hugely overrated, but as a utility player they can be very valuable.

As a starter Kepp isn't all that enticing. He's not a great fielder, and the only place his bat really profiles well at all is 2nd base, which isn't a very good fit with the Reds. His 90 at-bat pace won't continue, but he can be an asset off the bench. Hopefully he doesn't get overexposed.

KeyMastur
08-12-2007, 01:49 PM
He needed to be on the roster since day 1. But his future is still as a utility player. He has some nice skills (being able to hit the ball), but he's not very patient, and has little power. That makes him a fantastic utility player. In a lot of ways he's like Freddy Sanchez. He's another guy that is hugely overrated, but as a utility player they can be very valuable.

As a starter Kepp isn't all that enticing. He's not a great fielder, and the only place his bat really profiles well at all is 2nd base, which isn't a very good fit with the Reds. His 90 at-bat pace won't continue, but he can be an asset off the bench. Hopefully he doesn't get overexposed.
not patient ?? nearly takes the first pitch every AB. he'll ambush lefties sometimes. he'll wait for a pitch on the outside corner (cause most times a pitcher will throw majority of pitches there) and flick it into right or up the middle.

he's a decent fielder. he can play anywhere, so utility is a good label.

which pace were you talking about ? i never thought he'd continue to hit 370 in AAA but day after day collected a couple hits a game....

mth123
08-12-2007, 02:05 PM
I like Keppinger in a Supersub role in 2008. I'd give him 1 start per week at SS and the RH ABs at 1B. Then I'd give him a start at 2nd or 3rd on alternate weeks with Phillips getting a day off one week and Encarnacion a day off the next week. He can play in the OF on Sunday Specials or in a pinch. If he gets hot maybe leave him in the for a few days, but I wouldn't commit any position to him day in and day out.

The thing about this year that has been successful (one of the few) is the emergence of Keppinger, Coutlangus, Hopper and Pedro Lopez. IMO the Reds need to pare some payroll to be able to put more money in the pitching staff. Rather than cut the muscle by trading Dunn or letting him walk, it seems like the Reds save just as much by replacing Freel, Stanton, Conine and Gonzalez with that group and that should save enough to keep Dunn and still have money for pitching.

When wisdom says you give up some offense to have money for pitching, most are talking about a downgrade from a Gonzalez to a Lopez, not a big drop from a Phillips to Keppinger or Dunn to Hopper. At this point Hopper and Keppinger look like an upgrade versus Freel and Conine IMO.

KronoRed
08-12-2007, 02:27 PM
Would have been nice if he'd been on the bench from the start and no Castro.

11larkin11
08-12-2007, 02:46 PM
He couldn't start the year off the bench because he broke his finger in ST, where he was doing very well.

Scrap Irony
08-12-2007, 02:49 PM
I know I'm in the minority here, but I'd start Keppinger at 2B, move Phillips to SS, and look to deal AGon (Toronto looks promising). Keepinger has shown me a penchant for knocking in runs, hitting the ball hard, and taking "professional at-bats" (groan). And he can't walk if he's being pitched to, as his .354 BA attests.

Keppinger, if he continues to hit, is one of two or three really bright spots for this team in a lost season.

dougdirt
08-12-2007, 03:23 PM
I think I like where scrap irony is going on this one.

At this point Keppinger to too hot to not be getting at bats 5-6 days a week. He doesn't have power and he isn't walking right now.... but when you are hitting .330, its likely due to you getting good pitches to hit, not swinging at everything.

fearofpopvol1
08-12-2007, 04:52 PM
Btw, he struck out once today, so 3 times for the year. ;)

AmarilloRed
08-12-2007, 06:58 PM
Let's see where his Ba is at season's end. If he is hitting .330 to .350 , start him somewhere. If he is hitting over .300, make him supersub. However, if he is hitting below .300, put him on the bench.

nate
08-12-2007, 07:11 PM
Man, if he could just walk once or twice more a week, he'd be a freaking on base machine.

RedsManRick
08-12-2007, 07:18 PM
Keppinger has a LD% of 27.3%. The qualified MLB leader is Michael Young at 25.8%. Either Jeff Keppinger is one of the best line drive hitters in baseball, or he's just on a really solid hot streak at the moment.

He reminds me a TON of Freddy Sanchez, who also makes a ton of contact and happened to lead MLB in LD% last year. Both are .300/.350/.425 guys, which makes them an asset up the middle, but not a great fit at 3B.

I see Kepp as a great utility IF and occasional starter over the next few years. Let's just not make the mistake of thinking having him around means we should ship off EE, who has a notably higher ceiling and deserves a chance to pursue it.

nate
08-12-2007, 07:20 PM
Keppinger has a LD% of 27.3%. The qualified MLB leader is Michael Young at 25.8%. Either Jeff Keppinger is one of the best line drive hitters in baseball, or he's just on a really solid hot streak at the moment.

He reminds me a TON of Freddy Sanchez, who also makes a ton of contact and happened to lead MLB in LD% last year. Both are .300/.350/.425 guys, which makes them an asset up the middle, but not a great fit at 3B.

I see Kepp as a great utility IF and occasional starter over the next few years. Let's just not make the mistake of thinking having him around means we should ship off EE, who has a notably higher ceiling and deserves a chance to pursue it.

Absolutely. Between him and Hopper, I think Freel and Farney should be worried.

Ron Madden
08-12-2007, 07:21 PM
Keppinger has a LD% of 27.3%. The qualified MLB leader is Michael Young at 25.8%. Either Jeff Keppinger is one of the best line drive hitters in baseball, or he's just on a really solid hot streak at the moment.

He reminds me a TON of Freddy Sanchez, who also makes a ton of contact and happened to lead MLB in LD% last year. Both are .300/.350/.425 guys, which makes them an asset up the middle, but not a great fit at 3B.

I see Kepp as a great utility IF and occasional starter over the next few years. Let's just not make the mistake of thinking having him around means we should ship off EE, who has a notably higher ceiling and deserves a chance to pursue it.

Good post. :thumbup:

Rojo
08-12-2007, 07:28 PM
The sad thing about this organization is that if Castro has not gotten hurt, Keppinger would have probably not received the chance.

Trade an a-ball pitcher for a guy who hits .350 in the bigs and this is what welcomes you. Tough crowd.

Team Clark
08-12-2007, 07:44 PM
Would have been nice if he'd been on the bench from the start and no Castro.

Even with his broken hand/finger sufferend in ST he may have been better than Castro. :D

remdog
08-12-2007, 08:24 PM
I'm liking Keppinger as the supper-sub/first one off the bench for next year. Solid with the bat and I thought he made a couple of nice plays on balls off the left-field wall the other night. If it would allow us to trade Freel for something decent (or at least replace his salary) I'd be all for it. Unfortunately, I think with Freel he's gonna' have to prove he's still capeable/healthy next year before someone is willing to bite on that deal.

Rem

westofyou
08-12-2007, 08:33 PM
Hopper and Keppinger

Reminds me of this.

http://reds.enquirer.com/img/photos/1997/08/082597stynes_400x419.jpg


They're getting young so quickly, even some of their young players are already out of the loop. Remember how Chris Stynes and Jon Nunnally were to be the future? Well, that's past. Nunnally is in Triple-A; through Friday, Stynes had five at-bats in the last seven games.

And poor Eduardo Perez. In less than a year, he has gone from has-potential to has-been. Perez hit cleanup on Opening Day.

http://www.enquirer.com/columns/daugherty/1998/07/071998pd.html

remdog
08-12-2007, 08:39 PM
Love the unis though. :)

Rem

vaticanplum
08-12-2007, 09:03 PM
Love the unis though. :)

Rem

I really like them too. How great is that picture? It just looks like, for lack of a better descriptor, pure baseball.

KronoRed
08-12-2007, 09:13 PM
Absolutely. Between him and Hopper, I think Freel and Farney should be worried.

Nah, Farney got himself a contract extension before this awful year of his, he's smiling because he knows the Reds will be keeping him ;)

GAC
08-12-2007, 10:25 PM
I'm just glad that Pete, in this second half, is giving kids like Keppinger and Hopper the playing time/opportunity. That is what they are playing for - to get that opportunity. Now it's up to them to show what they got.

And WHO acquired Keppinger? ;)

mth123
08-12-2007, 10:58 PM
I'm just glad that Pete, in this second half, is giving kids like Keppinger and Hopper the playing time/opportunity. That is what they are playing for - to get that opportunity. Now it's up to them to show what they got.

And WHO acquired Keppinger? ;)

The same guy who dumped Brendan Harris (.297/.355/.428 in 430 PA in a tougher park in a tougher division in a tougher league) for nothing to make room for him. Harris has about the same skillset, with maybe a little more power, and is the same age (Harris is 4 Months younger). I'm glad Keppinger is working out and I like him, but it took that much just for this to be a lateral move.

Boss-Hog
08-12-2007, 11:10 PM
Since I've received several private messages asking when certain Sun Deck members gained ORG access because they've posted in this thread, this thread was created in the Minor League forum until a moderator correctly moved it to the appropriate forum since it was MLB-related. Please ensure that you are posting content in the proper forum.

Blitz Dorsey
08-12-2007, 11:12 PM
I know I'm in the minority here, but I'd start Keppinger at 2B, move Phillips to SS, and look to deal AGon (Toronto looks promising). Keepinger has shown me a penchant for knocking in runs, hitting the ball hard, and taking "professional at-bats" (groan). And he can't walk if he's being pitched to, as his .354 BA attests.

Keppinger, if he continues to hit, is one of two or three really bright spots for this team in a lost season.

But Alex Gonzalez is the "best defensive shortstop" in MLB. LOL.

Gonzalez is the worst "great" defensive player I have ever seen. Was Tito Francona doing a live stand-up act when he made those comments?

I somewhat like this idea, however I would like to leave Phillips at 2B since he has blossomed into a star there. One might think that moving defensive positions wouldn't affect his offense, but it has happened many times before (I know it doesn't make any sense). But, I would definitely prefer the combination of Phillips SS/Kepp 2B over the combo of Gonzalez SS/Phillips 2B.

Gonzalez is the most overrated defensive player I can ever remember seeing.

Eric_Davis
08-13-2007, 04:28 AM
Keppinger's been very good so far. But lets not forget that he's only had 90 PAs this year.

I was definitely in favor of him starting the year with the Reds over the likes of Castro.


I doubt if any current Cincinnati RED ever in their entire career had a stretch of only 2 strikeouts in 90 plate appearances. I doubt if any of them ever even came close to that, and 8, 9, or 10 isn't close.

2 of 90 is exceptional. There really is something special about a guy who can do that. He's worth the price of a ticket by himself just to watch him take 3 or 4 at-bats in a game.

But, the thing is, he's a hacker. He takes fewer pitches per at-bat than 90% of the REDS' players. That may catch up to him as pitchers stop throwing him strikes knowing that he'll swing at pitches out of the strike zone.

Eric_Davis
08-13-2007, 04:40 AM
Would have been nice if he'd been on the bench from the start and no Castro.

It certainly would have. The REDS record whenever Castro started a game was horrible. They won 2 of 3 or 3 of 4 and couldn't win again after that until the first start after the All-Star break. Then he thankfully got hurt.

Eric_Davis
08-13-2007, 05:02 AM
I know I'm in the minority here, but I'd start Keppinger at 2B, move Phillips to SS, and look to deal AGon (Toronto looks promising). Keepinger has shown me a penchant for knocking in runs, hitting the ball hard, and taking "professional at-bats" (groan). And he can't walk if he's being pitched to, as his .354 BA attests.

Keppinger, if he continues to hit, is one of two or three really bright spots for this team in a lost season.

I heard that "professional at-bat" logo applied to Keppinger from Mackanin. That's a joke. Keppinger is the antithesis of a "professional" hitter.

As someone said, he's like Freddy Sanchez. He is a true hacker. When you average 3.26 pitches per plate appearance, there's nothing professional going on there.

Someone should tell Mackanin that "professional at-bats" involve patience, making the pitcher throw to you the pitch that you want to hit through a mental cat-and-mouse game each at-bat, even setting up a 2nd at-bat of the day with a 1st at-bat. Edgar Martinez was as good at that as anyone I've ever seen in 40 years. Being the only Right-Handed hitter to win 2 batting titles in the American League since Joe Dimaggio, a span of 60 years, speaks for itself.

But, Keppinger must have an amazing eye for putting the bat on the ball, while putting some good mustard on it at the same time.

He reminds me more of Pete Rose without the patience. If he takes the 1st pitch, that's fine. But, he's hacking at the 2nd and the 3rd and the 4th.

When he's swung at the 1st pitch, He's 4 for 13 with one Double and 2 RBI's. .308 AVG, .365 SLG

If he didn't swing at the first pitch and it was called a strike, he finished those at-bats by hitting .310/.341/.476/.817.

If he didn't swing at the first pitch and it was called a ball, he finished those at-bats by hitting .429/.515/.714/1.229.

Apparently, letting him see one pitch from a pitcher and he's good to go.

Eric_Davis
08-13-2007, 05:04 AM
Keppinger has a LD% of 27.3%. The qualified MLB leader is Michael Young at 25.8%. Either Jeff Keppinger is one of the best line drive hitters in baseball, or he's just on a really solid hot streak at the moment.

He reminds me a TON of Freddy Sanchez, who also makes a ton of contact and happened to lead MLB in LD% last year. Both are .300/.350/.425 guys, which makes them an asset up the middle, but not a great fit at 3B.

I see Kepp as a great utility IF and occasional starter over the next few years. Let's just not make the mistake of thinking having him around means we should ship off EE, who has a notably higher ceiling and deserves a chance to pursue it.

Absolutely. I see nothing but continued growth from Edwin. I see him also at someone who can start driving in 100 RBI's a year for several years.

Eric_Davis
08-13-2007, 05:11 AM
The same guy who dumped Brendan Harris (.297/.355/.428 in 430 PA in a tougher park in a tougher division in a tougher league) for nothing to make room for him. Harris has about the same skillset, with maybe a little more power, and is the same age (Harris is 4 Months younger). I'm glad Keppinger is working out and I like him, but it took that much just for this to be a lateral move.

At least he corrected his mistake.

When you read the stock market, you check out the stocks you used to own. I'm sure Krivsky is understanding (at least I hope he is) what a terrible mistake that was and remembers the scouts and coaches that gave him the information that said Harris wasn't to be this good in 2007 or maybe ever for all they might have told him considering what they got for him.

GAC
08-13-2007, 10:20 AM
As someone said, he's like Freddy Sanchez. He is a true hacker. When you average 3.26 pitches per plate appearance, there's nothing professional going on there.

Someone should tell Mackanin that "professional at-bats" involve patience, making the pitcher throw to you the pitch that you want to hit through a mental cat-and-mouse game each at-bat, even setting up a 2nd at-bat of the day with a 1st at-bat. Edgar Martinez was as good at that as anyone I've ever seen in 40 years. Being the only Right-Handed hitter to win 2 batting titles in the American League since Joe Dimaggio, a span of 60 years, speaks for itself.

But, Keppinger must have an amazing eye for putting the bat on the ball, while putting some good mustard on it at the same time.

He reminds me more of Pete Rose without the patience. If he takes the 1st pitch, that's fine. But, he's hacking at the 2nd and the 3rd and the 4th.

When he's swung at the 1st pitch, He's 4 for 13 with one Double and 2 RBI's. .308 AVG, .365 SLG

If he didn't swing at the first pitch and it was called a strike, he finished those at-bats by hitting .310/.341/.476/.817.

If he didn't swing at the first pitch and it was called a ball, he finished those at-bats by hitting .429/.515/.714/1.229.

Apparently, letting him see one pitch from a pitcher and he's good to go.

So if he has a good batting eye, recognizes quality pitches, while having a good understanding of the strikezone - why is that defined as hacking?

Big Klu
08-13-2007, 11:51 AM
Absolutely. I see nothing but continued growth from Edwin. I see him also at someone who can start driving in 100 RBI's a year for several years.

I hope you are right, but I don't see that kind of production from Encarnacion. I think he will grow, too, but I think he is a player who will hit in the .270-.285 range, with an occasional .300+ season. He will get his walks, which will boost his OBP somewhat. I see him as a guy who will hit 15-20 HR's (occasionally getting between 20-25), and driving in 70-85 RBI's. He might have a big season where he approaches or exceeds 100 RBI's, but I don't think it will be the norm for him. Think Buddy Bell or Chris Sabo in terms of offensive production, not Mike Schmidt.

Maybe I'm wrong about him, but even if I'm not, Buddy Bell or Chris Sabo-type production isn't a bad thing.


So if he has a good batting eye, recognizes quality pitches, while having a good understanding of the strikezone - why is that defined as hacking?

I guess because he isn't Sir Walksalot. (After all, walks are better than hits! :D)

westofyou
08-13-2007, 11:55 AM
I hope you are right, but I don't see that kind of production from Encarnacion. I think he is a player who will hit in the .270-.285 range, with an occasional .300+ season. He will get his walks, which will boost his OBP somewhat. I see him as a guy who will hit 15-20 HR's (occasionally getting between 20-25), and driving in 70-85 RBI's. He might have a big season where he approaches or exceeds 100 RBI's, but I don't think it will be the norm for him. Think Buddy Bell in terms of offensive production, not Mike Schmidt.

Maybe I'm wrong about him, but even if I'm not, Buddy Bell-type production isn't a bad thing.

That's what I see too, I don't see 45 doubles a year, nor 25 HR's and a GG.

It's early, but I have to admit I don't see anyone who will end up being the Reds all time games played at third. Personally I think he'll be flipped and Keppinger will get the lions share of his ab's next year.

Just a gut feeling I'm getting.

RedsManRick
08-13-2007, 12:34 PM
Thanks from the props ED, but I would define patience differently than you. A professional hitter hits the pitch he wants to hit, not the one the pitcher wants him to hit. He stays within himself. Keppinger seems to do just that. While that often involves taking many pitches or fouling off a number of pitches, if he gets a good pitch to drive early in the count, a professional hitter will drive it.

Keppinger has one of the highest contact rates in baseball. When he swings, he hits the ball. And so far, when he hits the ball he hits more line drives than anybody else in baseball. If that comes down because he starts to swing at pitches he can't drive well, then we can levy your criticism.

Regarding EE, in no way do I think he's a lock to fill expectations of .270/30/100. I do think that he deserves 1200-1500 at bats at the major league level before we decide if he does or doesn't have it -- especially when he's essentially free and we don't have any substantially better options. There's nothing wrong with free mediocrity when your other option is more costly mediocrity.

KronoRed
08-13-2007, 12:50 PM
That's what I see too, I don't see 45 doubles a year, nor 25 HR's and a GG.

It's early, but I have to admit I don't see anyone who will end up being the Reds all time games played at third. Personally I think he'll be flipped and Keppinger will get the lions share of his ab's next year.

Just a gut feeling I'm getting.

Sure hope your gut is wrong, there is no reason for EE to be dealt just because Keppinger has apparently caught a hot streak at age 27, both are cheap, so why not keep both? there will be plenty of at bats to go around.

KronoRed
08-13-2007, 12:51 PM
(After all, walks are better than hits! :D)
Who has ever said that?

I believe what gets said a lot is walks are better then outs.

BRM
08-13-2007, 12:54 PM
Sure hope your gut is wrong, there is no reason for EE to be dealt just because Keppinger has apparently caught a hot streak at age 27, both are cheap, so why not keep both? there will be plenty of at bats to go around.

I agree with you completely but my gut tells me the same thing. I can see EE being dealt this winter.

KronoRed
08-13-2007, 12:58 PM
I agree with you completely but my gut tells me the same thing. I can see EE being dealt this winter.

For magic beans no doubt, can't imagine he has much value at this point.

BRM
08-13-2007, 01:00 PM
That's the scary part. I don't think he'll bring much in return.

Doc. Scott
08-13-2007, 01:05 PM
I assume those of you who want to hand Keppinger a starting role after eighty plate appearances were also quick to brand this gentleman (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Anderson-Machado.shtml) as the shortstop of the future after his September 2004.

RedsManRick
08-13-2007, 01:08 PM
Machado's career minor league line: .228/.335/.339
Keppinger's career minor league line: .320/.373/.419

Keppinger is no all-star and I would not want to pencil him in as a starter anywhere except possibly 2nd base if we didn't have a better alternative, which we do. That said, he's a legitimate major leaguer, if just as a utility guy, which is more than can be said about Machado, who is barely a legitimate minor leaguer.

Roy Tucker
08-13-2007, 01:09 PM
Keppinger reminds me a bit of Jimmy Stewart, the Reds' super-sub from the '70 team. A bit of a string-bean, plays many positions, none of them with any great flair, and some gap power.

I think Freel's job may be in more danger than EE's. I just wish that, for once, the Reds would trade someone at peak value instead of running them into the ground.

It will be interesting to see how NL pitching adjusts to his hitting. He's proven he can hit fastballs over the plate. I see a lot of breaking stuff off the plate in his future.

Kc61
08-13-2007, 01:22 PM
I hope you are right, but I don't see that kind of production from Encarnacion. I think he will grow, too, but I think he is a player who will hit in the .270-.285 range, with an occasional .300+ season. He will get his walks, which will boost his OBP somewhat. I see him as a guy who will hit 15-20 HR's (occasionally getting between 20-25), and driving in 70-85 RBI's. He might have a big season where he approaches or exceeds 100 RBI's, but I don't think it will be the norm for him.



I guess because he isn't Sir Walksalot. (After all, walks are better than hits! :D)

I think your view of EE makes sense, although this year he won't even approach your power numbers (which are less optimistic than some other posters').

In the minor leagues, EE was more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter. He did hit 15 HRs at AAA in only 290 at bats in 2005, but otherwise never hit that many (he hit only 13 HRs at AA in 2004, in 469 at bats). EE had a high number of doubles in several minor league seasons. He also hit for a high average (over .300) at AAA.

So what I would like to see is EE hit .290, with 15 homers and a lot of doubles. This seems to be his profile. I don't see him as a 20 home run guy, except in a big year.

This year, EE has 21 extra base hits in 348 at bats. To put this in perspective, it is fewer than David Ross (22), a .207 hitter, who has only 271 at bats. I'm not giving up on EE, but his lack of power this year has really raised questions. He plays an offensive position and he really has to step things up next year.

As for Keppinger, he has been very impressive and should be a "fifth" infielder for the Reds for several seasons, if they are smart.

Big Klu
08-13-2007, 01:31 PM
Who has ever said that?

I believe what gets said a lot is walks are better then outs.

Did you see the :D?

GAC
08-13-2007, 10:12 PM
Thanks from the props ED, but I would define patience differently than you. A professional hitter hits the pitch he wants to hit, not the one the pitcher wants him to hit. He stays within himself. Keppinger seems to do just that. While that often involves taking many pitches or fouling off a number of pitches, if he gets a good pitch to drive early in the count, a professional hitter will drive it.

BINGO! Rick. That's what I see, and don't define as hacking. It's obviously too early to tell with Keppinger; but so far I like what I see.

woy said this recently, and I agree, that basically we need to "complement" this lineup with some guys that hit for average.

I personally think that is why Aurilia had success here the last couple of years, and was popular. Sure - I wouldn't want a lineup filled with Aurilia's; but you do need these types of players to support your OB% guys.

pahster
08-13-2007, 10:17 PM
but you do need these types of players to support your OB% guys.

I'm not sure the Reds have more than four of those guys. :p:

GAC
08-14-2007, 10:26 AM
I'm not sure the Reds have more than four of those guys. :p:

That consistently hit for a solid average?

KronoRed
08-14-2007, 03:17 PM
Did you see the :D?

Yep ;)

Caveat Emperor
08-14-2007, 05:09 PM
I'm not giving up on EE, but his lack of power this year has really raised questions.

He's a high-fastball hitter that isn't seeing a lot of high fastballs this year. He also, IMO, is one of the poorest on the team at pitch recognition.

Its up to EE to make the next adjustment and refine his game to make use of what pitchers are giving him, instead of making a lot of easy outs.

Always Red
08-14-2007, 05:19 PM
He's a high-fastball hitter that isn't seeing a lot of high fastballs this year. He also, IMO, is one of the poorest on the team at pitch recognition.

Its up to EE to make the next adjustment and refine his game to make use of what pitchers are giving him, instead of making a lot of easy outs.

I haven't seen a Red pop up as much as EE has this year since the days of Gary Redus.

GAC
08-14-2007, 09:48 PM
I'd like them to experiment with EE -what have they got to lose in the second half? - and try him at one of the top spots in the order and see if seeing better pitches might help him. His OB% is floating around .340. That's better than Hopper.

fearofpopvol1
08-15-2007, 12:18 AM
Keppinger struck out a 4th time tonight. What's wrong with this guy?!?!

CTA513
08-15-2007, 12:20 AM
Keppinger struck out a 4th time tonight. What's wrong with this guy?!?!

Hes trying to catch up to Ryan Howard.

;)

Eric_Davis
08-15-2007, 05:56 AM
So if he has a good batting eye, recognizes quality pitches, while having a good understanding of the strikezone - why is that defined as hacking?

Hacking quite often is a bad term, but in Keppinger's case I don't think it is.

I think of a hacker as a guy who goes up swinging, who will rarely walk and is always putting the ball in play, but without the power. I'm sure there are many definitions of the term, "hacker" or "hacking".

Rather than discuss the use of the term, I'll just say that Keppinger has been a joy to watch.

It's not too often you get to see a guy for the REDS hit .350 during his first 100 plate appearances for the team. Krivsky's had some good success with some players so far who've come in and had success as soon as they play for the REDS....Ross, Arroyo, Phillips, Hamilton, and now Keppinger. Ross, though even better defensively this year than last year, regressed offensively, and Arroyo has regressed, too, a little bit. Arroyo had a tough August last year and a torridly great September/October. It will be interesting to see how he does the end of this year.

Eric_Davis
08-15-2007, 07:18 AM
Keppinger struck out a 4th time tonight. What's wrong with this guy?!?!

Strike 1 was a ball and the Called Strike 3 was even further outside. Crappy calls by the ump on that one. He must have had a dinner waiting or something.

nate
08-15-2007, 08:24 AM
The same guy who dumped Brendan Harris (.297/.355/.428 in 430 PA in a tougher park in a tougher division in a tougher league) for nothing to make room for him. Harris has about the same skillset, with maybe a little more power, and is the same age (Harris is 4 Months younger). I'm glad Keppinger is working out and I like him, but it took that much just for this to be a lateral move.

Just for fun:




Projected to 162 games

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+
Harris 162 621 80 182 39 2 13 71 5 0 55 121 .294 .354 .423 103
Kep 162 538 71 188 52 6 13 117 0 0 39 19 .349 .400 .542 137


This is an exhibition not a competition, please...no wagering.

Cooper
08-15-2007, 10:39 AM
Poor man's Chris Sabo....Sabo didn't really come along till age 26-27.

Rich man's Ray Knight? They have the same kind of swing. Kind of inside out on the inside pitch -pushes it to right.

KronoRed
08-15-2007, 02:31 PM
So we should trade Keppinger for an aging CF? :D

bucksfan2
08-15-2007, 02:48 PM
I see Keppinger's batting style similar to that or Barry Larkin. He seems to hit it where the pitch is thrown. He doesn't have a lot of power but he tends to hit the ball hard. From what I have seen of Keppy I dont think he is going to have a whole lot of slumps or dry spells because of the way he hits the ball.

Eric_Davis
08-16-2007, 03:05 AM
Anyone remember Kurt Stillwell?

Jpup
08-16-2007, 06:06 AM
fool's gold.

BRM
08-16-2007, 02:01 PM
From Lonnie Wheeler.



Most likely, the Reds will find a position next year for Jeff Keppinger. More impressive than his .356 batting average (in 87 at-bats) is the professional way in which he has compiled it, and the prolific manner in which he has produced with runners in scoring position. In those respects, Keppinger is precisely what the Reds' offense needs most. None of that has escaped the attention of the organization, the question being: Where does he play? Third base is a possibility if Edwin Encarnacion is traded, or even if he isn't. Left field is a possibility if Adam Dunn's option is not picked up. And, in spite of the doubts surrounding his defense, there is nothing wrong with the way Keppinger has played shortstop

Matt700wlw
08-16-2007, 02:03 PM
Would have been nice if he'd been on the bench from the start and no Castro.

What about the veteran presence and "knowing how to win?"

Where would this team be without those qualities?

KronoRed
08-16-2007, 02:55 PM
What about the veteran presence and "knowing how to win?"

Where would this team be without those qualities?

Dead last? :D

KronoRed
08-16-2007, 02:55 PM
From Lonnie Wheeler.

The Reds wouldn't do such crazy things..


Would they? :help:

BRM
08-16-2007, 03:01 PM
The Reds wouldn't do such crazy things..


Would they? :help:

I think you already know the answer to that.

toledodan
08-16-2007, 03:02 PM
i really like kepp in the 2 spot ahead of griffey and one day bruce.

KronoRed
08-16-2007, 03:05 PM
I think you already know the answer to that.

Yep :(

deltachi8
08-16-2007, 03:09 PM
Chris Stynes, Jeff Branson...Jeff Keppinger....

westofyou
08-16-2007, 03:11 PM
In just looking at the Reds since the 1995 season Jeff Keppinger (.951 OPS) is pushing the envelope for the best OPS by a Red with at least 100 PA’s, but this doesn’t come without a caveat, that being the top 25 of is littered with one year wonders and stars.


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
1995-2006

OPS YEAR OPS AB
1 Kevin Mitchell 1996 1.026 114
2 Jose Guillen 2003 1.013 315
3 Jon Nunnally 1997 1.002 201
4 Barry Larkin 1996 .977 517
5 Reggie Sanders 1995 .975 484
6 Alex Ochoa 2000 .964 244
7 Adam Dunn 2004 .956 568
8 Adam Dunn 2001 .948 244
9 Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 .946 491
10 Ken Griffey Jr. 2000 .942 520
11 Ron Gant 1995 .940 410
12 Sean Casey 1999 .938 594
13 Ken Griffey Jr. 2003 .936 166
14 David Ross 2006 .932 247
15 Adam Dunn 2005 .927 543
16 Eric Davis 1996 .917 415
17 Sean Casey 2004 .915 571
18 Barry Larkin 1997 .913 224
19 Austin Kearns 2002 .907 372
20 Sean Casey 2000 .902 480
21 Barry Larkin 1998 .901 538
22 Ken Griffey Jr. 2001 .898 364
23 Jerome Walton 1995 .892 162
24 Michael Tucker 2000 .892 270
25 Mark Lewis 1995 .887 171

Eric_Davis
08-16-2007, 07:23 PM
I remember how much Mark Lewis helped us that year in '95, the last time we reached the playoffs (one-game playoffs don't count, and that game was over before it was started).

Eric_Davis
08-16-2007, 07:28 PM
One amazing stat this year is that whenever a REDS' Left-handed hitter has faced a Right-handed pitcher, as an entire team, they have a whopping .929 OPS.

And I can't believe that we didn't trade one single left-handed bat before the deadline considering how many teams heavily in the playoff hunt struggle against Right-handed batters. We had to have a lot of requests.

RedsManRick
08-16-2007, 07:42 PM
In all fairness, Keppinger has a better offensive track record than Stynes, Lewis, or Branson. The Freddy Sanchez comparison is much more apt, almost scary accurate in terms of defense, time spent in the minors, etc.

His contact rate and discipline really do put him a cut above the Mark Lewis, Jeff Branson class.

Eric_Davis
08-17-2007, 03:48 AM
One amazing stat this year is that whenever a REDS' Left-handed hitter has faced a Right-handed pitcher, as an entire team, they have a whopping .929 OPS.

And I can't believe that we didn't trade one single left-handed bat before the deadline considering how many teams heavily in the playoff hunt struggle against Right-handed pitchers. We had to have a lot of requests.

I thought I was editing and I hit the quote button instead...ever forgetting that you can't edit something 12 hours later (which I don't understand).

bucksfan2
08-17-2007, 10:00 AM
IMO Keppinger had a better chance of being successful in the 80's and early 90's than he does now. People will always look at him and say he doesn't OPS enough, is too old to be a prospect, isn't fast enough, doesn't play good enough defense, his OBP is too BA driven, etc. Fact of the matter is this kid has shown he can just play. He has shown the ability hit the ball and get on base. I dont care how it happens, if he doesn't hit for many extra bases, all I care is that he is the type of contact hitter that this team sorely needs.

Ltlabner
08-17-2007, 11:06 AM
In all fairness, Keppinger has a better offensive track record than Stynes, Lewis, or Branson. The Freddy Sanchez comparison is much more apt, almost scary accurate in terms of defense, time spent in the minors, etc.

His contact rate and discipline really do put him a cut above the Mark Lewis, Jeff Branson class.

As long as Kepp can maintain that BA driven OBP, and can cultivate it ala Hatteburg, it's a good thing to mix into the line-up IMO. We have plenty of feast-or-famine mistake pitch crushers, and a sparse number of guys who can consistantly take a walk. Would be nice to throw a different kind of hitter out there.

Not suggesting he get playing time every day, but *assuming* he keeps this up a while and it isn't a fluke, having him as your number 1 bench guy/infield utility guy isn't a bad problem to have IMO. IF Votto takes over 1b in 2008 and IF Hatteburg is back, having both of them on the bench isn't totally horrable either.

registerthis
08-17-2007, 11:15 AM
IMO Keppinger had a better chance of being successful in the 80's and early 90's than he does now. People will always look at him and say he doesn't OPS enough

There was never a time when a team sought out players that weren't effective offensive producers. The rate of production has ebbed and flowed over the decades, but there exists no time in baseball chronology when a judy hitter was a valued commodity. What has changed is a better understanding of the stats that drive the game, and their meaning. OPS isn't the be-all, end-all, but it's a very good measure of offensive performance.

This isn't a slam on Keppinger at all, but merely a statement that a good ballplayer is a good ballplayer, regardless of era--if he provides something of legitimate value, a home will found for him somewhere.

TOBTTReds
08-17-2007, 11:24 AM
There was never a time when a team sought out players that weren't effective offensive producers.

I don't think he is saying that, because Kepp is effective. I think he is saying that you didn't have to be a slugger at times to be thought of as very effective. Phil Rizzuto is one that comes to mind. Won the MVP in 1950 while posting a line of 324/415/439/854 the same year Dimaggio posted 301/396/585/981. There is NO doubt in my mind who wins the MVP today if those are the numbers.

Sluggin percentage is emphasized so much more now, like you mentioned. I think teams definitely have a different perspective of what success is, which in return makes Kepp "less" successful now. Only by perception though, which may have been your point to start with.

RedsManRick
08-17-2007, 11:57 AM
This isn't a slam on Keppinger at all, but merely a statement that a good ballplayer is a good ballplayer, regardless of era--if he provides something of legitimate value, a home will found for him somewhere.

Though there is certainly something to be said for players who's skill set doesn't afford them the same opportunities as it should have.

Take the example of Jack Cust or Carlos Pena. Often a player of value will get a limited opportunity because he doesn't fit a predetermined mold. I'm sure we could come up with examples of guys who have massive platoon splits but teams never considered using them in that manner.

bucksfan2
08-17-2007, 12:50 PM
There was never a time when a team sought out players that weren't effective offensive producers. The rate of production has ebbed and flowed over the decades, but there exists no time in baseball chronology when a judy hitter was a valued commodity. What has changed is a better understanding of the stats that drive the game, and their meaning. OPS isn't the be-all, end-all, but it's a very good measure of offensive performance.

This isn't a slam on Keppinger at all, but merely a statement that a good ballplayer is a good ballplayer, regardless of era--if he provides something of legitimate value, a home will found for him somewhere.

Don't get me wrong, a good player is going to be a good player across eras but I think in today's world OPS is largely viewed as the most important offensive stat. As a poster above mentioned Phil Rizzuto won an MVP with a season that in today's world would have only been thought of as a nice season. I think in today's game a walk has become overvalued and to some extent a hit has become undervalued. I think more GM's out there are looking at stat lines with high obp and ops and dont really look at guys who have a high average but whose obp is driven by that BA.

I think as reds fans we have all seen the flaws of the ops system. For how many years have the reds been in the top tier of hr hitters yet contniued to finish in the bottom tier of the division. I think in today's game ba has become so overshadowed that players who hit for high average but do not hit for a lot of power are thought lesser of.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-17-2007, 01:01 PM
Don't get me wrong, a good player is going to be a good player across eras but I think in today's world OPS is largely viewed as the most important offensive stat.

That's because OPS and RC correlate higher than hits or BA to actual run production and run production is the only goal of an offense.

pahster
08-17-2007, 01:02 PM
I think as reds fans we have all seen the flaws of the ops system. For how many years have the reds been in the top tier of hr hitters yet contniued to finish in the bottom tier of the division. I think in today's game ba has become so overshadowed that players who hit for high average but do not hit for a lot of power are thought lesser of.

Pitching...

bucksfan2
08-17-2007, 01:07 PM
That's because OPS and RC correlate higher than hits or BA to actual run production and run production is the only goal of an offense.

Let me ask you a question then. In OPS doesn't a walk and a single equal the same thing? For example if you take a walk with runners on second you load the bases. If you single in most cases you drive in two runs. However your OPS is the same regardless if you walk or get a hit.

registerthis
08-17-2007, 01:12 PM
Take the example of Jack Cust or Carlos Pena. Often a player of value will get a limited opportunity because he doesn't fit a predetermined mold. I'm sure we could come up with examples of guys who have massive platoon splits but teams never considered using them in that manner.

Well, managerial incompetence is another issue altogether.

Cyclone792
08-17-2007, 01:13 PM
Let me ask you a question then. In OPS doesn't a walk and a single equal the same thing? For example if you take a walk with runners on second you load the bases. If you single in most cases you drive in two runs. However your OPS is the same regardless if you walk or get a hit.

Uh, no.

This is why it would behoove people to actually learn about statistics they're unfamiliar with before automatically rejecting them. If you don't even understand a statistic, then it's awfully difficult to criticize it.

Big Klu
08-17-2007, 01:13 PM
Let me ask you a question then. In OPS doesn't a walk and a single equal the same thing? For example if you take a walk with runners on second you load the bases. If you single in most cases you drive in two runs. However your OPS is the same regardless if you walk or get a hit.

Actually, in terms of OPS, a single is worth more than a walk (unless the player in question is that extremely rare creature with a SLG greater than 1.000). A walk increases a player's OBP, but has no effect on his SLG. A single, however, raises both his OBP and his SLG (unless he is slugging over 1.000, then the single actually lowers his SLG).

In terms of OBP, a walk and a single hold the same value.

SteelSD
08-17-2007, 01:17 PM
Don't get me wrong, a good player is going to be a good player across eras but I think in today's world OPS is largely viewed as the most important offensive stat. As a poster above mentioned Phil Rizzuto won an MVP with a season that in today's world would have only been thought of as a nice season. I think in today's game a walk has become overvalued and to some extent a hit has become undervalued. I think more GM's out there are looking at stat lines with high obp and ops and dont really look at guys who have a high average but whose obp is driven by that BA.

I think as reds fans we have all seen the flaws of the ops system. For how many years have the reds been in the top tier of hr hitters yet contniued to finish in the bottom tier of the division. I think in today's game ba has become so overshadowed that players who hit for high average but do not hit for a lot of power are thought lesser of.

First, the failure of this team to win anything has everything to do with pitching and nothing to do with the Reds offensive performance. In fact, the "OPS system" is so not flawed that you can look directly at the Reds' team OPS Against and figure out why they've been losing.

Secondly, since 1990, only one MVP award was given to a hitter who produced a seasonal Batting Average lower than .300 (A-Rod- .298 in 2003). As recently as 2001 a low-power/high BA hitter (Suzuki) won an MVP award over a teammate (Bret Boone) who dramatically trumped his power numbers (37 HR, .578 SLG, 141 RBI).

Currently Detroit, Seattle, the Cubs, and the Angels all field teams predicated on BA-driven OBP. Of those teams, only Detroit is doing so with better than average IsoP numbers. They're not winning because of that, but those teams are paying a pretty penny for BA-driven offense.

Industry appreciation of Batting Average is alive and well.

KronoRed
08-17-2007, 02:44 PM
Batting average is by far still the most beloved stat in baseball, look at the Reds batters stats, who among them get a lot less criticism from the majority of fans? the ones with the highest batting average, what stats show up in 95% of baseball broadcasts? avg/hr/rbi.

OPS is nowhere near the point of shadowing anything..sadly.

registerthis
08-17-2007, 03:38 PM
I think as reds fans we have all seen the flaws of the ops system.

Actually, no. What we've seen are the flaws of the PITCHING. The Reds could have run Murderer's Row out there, and it would have mattered naught because guys like Milton, Livingston, Saarloos, Majewski, Stanton et al. are being run out there on a consistent basis.

westofyou
08-17-2007, 07:35 PM
Uh, no.

This is why it would behoove people to actually learn about statistics they're unfamiliar with before automatically rejecting them. If you don't even understand a statistic, then it's awfully difficult to criticize it.

Remember the Reds haven't stunk because of the worst run of pitching in franchise history, it's because of the combination of a players slugging percentage and on base percentage. This magical equation evidently is not only a talisman to the assumption that when used you aren't using any other criteria to judge a player but it evidently is also the sign of the baseball beast.

Eric_Davis
08-17-2007, 07:44 PM
That's because OPS and RC correlate higher than hits or BA to actual run production and run production is the only goal of an offense.

Of which Kepp has the highest RC/27 outs of anyone on the team, twice that of many REDS, 2-1/2 times that of Freel, and 8 times that of Castro.

RedsManRick
08-17-2007, 07:46 PM
Remember the Reds haven't stunk because of the worst run of pitching in franchise history, it's because of the combination of a players slugging percentage and on base percentage. This magical equation evidently is not only a talisman to the assumption that when used you aren't using any other criteria to judge a player but it evidently is also the sign of the baseball beast.

Score 1,000 runs and you can allow 800 and still make the playoffs... If you can score 7 runs a night, I guarantee you that you could win with this pitching staff.

But anyways... I suppose the way to fix the pitching is to sign/trade for the guys with the lowest ERA.... like Rheal Cormier.

In 2006 we had an OPS+ of 95 and an ERA+ of 106. That's right, we hit below average and pitched above average and we still sucked. But no, this team's losses are all about pitching.

This team has an OPS+ of 96 and an ERA+ of 95. It sucks because it can't hit or pitch very well. Factor in a home park that hurts our pitching and helps our offense and you could make an argument that our offense is a bigger problem than our pitching. People who claim that we'll win when we fix our pitching are going to find that that formula doesn't work too well either, ask the Twins.

Eric_Davis
08-17-2007, 07:47 PM
Pitching...

Yes. If our pitchers had low OPS' against, the REDS wouldn't be where they are.

side note: Harang is having the lowest OPS against of his career this year. It's a shame it's going to waste. Get out there and watch his last few starts. He's pitching like Cy Young.

DoogMinAmo
08-17-2007, 07:49 PM
Score 1,000 runs and you can allow 800 and still make the playoffs... If you can score 7 runs a night, I guarantee you that you could win with this pitching staff.

But anyways... I suppose the way to fix the pitching is to sign/trade for the guys with the lowest ERA.... like Rheal Cormier.

This team has an OPS+ of 96 and an ERA+ of 95. It sucks because it can't hit or pitch very well. Factor in a home park that hurts our pitching and helps our offense and you could make an argument that our offense is a bigger problem than our pitching.

Didn't last year's Indians fall victim to the antithesis of that logic?

Eric_Davis
08-17-2007, 07:50 PM
Well, managerial incompetence is another issue altogether.

That's even organizational incompetence for 14 American League teams for not recognizing that he just needed to put into a DH role and left alone.

Looks like my bet from the day he got called traded to the A's will cost me $25. ($50 if Cust finishes with an OPS of lower than .900 and $25 if he finishes with an OPS of above .900....he'll probably finish around where he's at right now....around .930-.940)

RedsManRick
08-17-2007, 07:57 PM
Didn't last year's Indians fall victim to the antithesis of that logic?

I don't follow. The Indians had an OPS+ of 110 and an ERA+ of 101. They scored half a run more per game than their opponents, outscoring their opponents 870 to 782. Give me that RS-RA total 100 times and I'll make the playoffs in 95 of 'em.

Both of those figures (110 and 101) would represent a significant improvement over the Reds.

Last year the Mets and Yankees tied for the most wins in baseball with 97.

Yankees: 117 OPS+, 99 ERA+
Mets: 108 OPS+, 104 ERA+

Pitching is clearly all that counts.

Eric_Davis
08-17-2007, 07:58 PM
Batting average is by far still the most beloved stat in baseball, look at the Reds batters stats, who among them get a lot less criticism from the majority of fans? the ones with the highest batting average, what stats show up in 95% of baseball broadcasts? avg/hr/rbi.

OPS is nowhere near the point of shadowing anything..sadly.


Which to me is very insulting to baseball fans. This isn't the 1960's and 1970's with Curt Gowdy and Joe Garagiola anymore. We're nearly a decade past the 20th Century. God, I feel old right now.

How hard would it be to post a pitcher's OPS-Against vs Left and Right, and a batter's OPS against vs Left and Right? That's only 2 numbers for the pitcher and 2 numbers for a hitter. Toss in Total Runs and RBI's for the hitter and Total K's and Walks for the pitcher. That gives me a much better understanding of the players than BA, HR, RBI.

They could at least "try" to show some understanding. They have direct access to STATS, Inc.

KronoRed
08-17-2007, 09:14 PM
Yes. If our pitchers had low OPS' against, the REDS wouldn't be where they are.

side note: Harang is having the lowest OPS against of his career this year. It's a shame it's going to waste. Get out there and watch his last few starts. He's pitching like Cy Young.

Harang and Mario Soto will get together and share stories in 20 years

DoogMinAmo
08-18-2007, 04:18 AM
I don't follow. The Indians had an OPS+ of 110 and an ERA+ of 101. They scored half a run more per game than their opponents, outscoring their opponents 870 to 782. Give me that RS-RA total 100 times and I'll make the playoffs in 95 of 'em.

Both of those figures (110 and 101) would represent a significant improvement over the Reds.

Last year the Mets and Yankees tied for the most wins in baseball with 97.

Yankees: 117 OPS+, 99 ERA+
Mets: 108 OPS+, 104 ERA+

Pitching is clearly all that counts.


But they didn't make the playoffs. Just scoring more runs than you allow does not guarantee a spot.

The Baumer
08-18-2007, 06:33 AM
I've noticed that if you divide a player's Trying Percentage with their Focus Magnitude Ranking you can get a pretty clear idea of how bad they want to win (WTW%). Right now Keppinger is at a 7.2WTW ratio, good for +4 above league average.

RedsBaron
08-18-2007, 08:48 AM
I think as reds fans we have all seen the flaws of the ops system. For how many years have the reds been in the top tier of hr hitters yet contniued to finish in the bottom tier of the division.

Very true. It is totally the fault of guys such as Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Junior for hitting all those home runs and having a good OPS, thereby causing the Reds to finish in the bottom tier of the division. The utter incompetence of most of the Reds pitchers has had nothing to do with with the Reds losing. ;)

RFS62
08-18-2007, 09:00 AM
I'll never understand how anyone could look at the last 7 years of Reds baseball and think it's anything but the pitching at fault.

I don't care what measure you use, I don't care if it comes to you in a dream.

It's the pitching.

Always Red
08-18-2007, 09:14 AM
It's the pitching.

Yep.

As of this morning, the Reds are last in the NL in runs allowed, 638. That has nothing to do with Dunn, Griffey, Phillips, whether Keppinger should play 3B rather than EE, or whether or not HR's are bad, or are rally-killers. (Have I missed something, somewhere along the line? Aren't HR's still the most efficient and quick way to score runs, and isn't scoring runs the offensive object of this game?)


The Reds offense is fine, and by and large it's been fine over these last 7 years, OPS system or not. ;)

It's the pitching.

**Edit- OK, it's MOSTLY the pitching;)...after reading RMR's posts on previous pages I went back and actually looked up (go figure, huh?:D) runs scored and runs against for our beloved Redlegs since 2000. What I found is that the pitching has been truly awful, as we suspected, but the hitting (I mean, runs scored- which is what really matters the most) hasn't been all that great either, other than in 2005, and 2000. But I would say that this year, by and large, it's all about the pitching. or lack of it.

Runs scored/game:
2007 4.76 (6th in NL)...so far
2006 4.62 (10th)
2005 5.03 (1st)
2004 4.63 (10th)
2003 4.28 (13th)
2002 4.38 (10th)
2001 4.54 (12th)
2000 5.06 (5th)

OK, now for the pitching (runs against/game)
2007 5.27 (16th)...so far
2006 4.94 (10th)
2005 5.45 (16th)
2004 5.60 (15th)
2003 5.47 (15th)
2002 4.78 (11th)
2001 5.25 (14th)
2000 4.69 (6th)

jojo
08-18-2007, 10:42 AM
I'll never understand how anyone could look at the last 7 years of Reds baseball and think it's anything but the pitching at fault.

I don't care what measure you use, I don't care if it comes to you in a dream.

It's the pitching.

The defense says :wave: too.....

KronoRed
08-18-2007, 02:40 PM
I've noticed that if you divide a player's Trying Percentage with their Focus Magnitude Ranking you can get a pretty clear idea of how bad they want to win (WTW%). Right now Keppinger is at a 7.2WTW ratio, good for +4 above league average.

Brilliant

BCubb2003
08-18-2007, 07:23 PM
I've noticed that if you divide a player's Trying Percentage with their Focus Magnitude Ranking you can get a pretty clear idea of how bad they want to win (WTW%). Right now Keppinger is at a 7.2WTW ratio, good for +4 above league average.

Is this adjusted for contract years?

fearofpopvol1
08-19-2007, 06:15 PM
3 for 5 today bringing his BA to .368 now for the season.

The guy thus far has been ridiculous.

Eric_Davis
08-19-2007, 07:25 PM
The defense says :wave: too.....

What's the old adage?

Pitching and defense wins Championships?

Drive for show, putt for dough. You have to do the little things, like hold leads after 6 innings and 7 innings.

Sea Ray
08-19-2007, 07:52 PM
I have liked what I've seen from Keppinger this year. A month ago I stated as much and compared his skills to Bill Mueller at which time a stat heavy poster replied:


Keppinger isn't "producing now". He came into the last game against the Marlins with a line of .238 BA/.333 OBP/.333 SLG (.666 SLG). He left that game with an OPS of .991 and he was 1-for-5 in tonight's game.

Holding back more projectible players like Encarnacion based on single-game performance is pure folly. Don't even get me started on why Jeff Keppinger isn't Bill Mueller.

I don't think the issue at this point is how many ABs a year he deserves. When you're producing like he is now keep playing him. Posting his stats after a week or so as was done above is pointless. Regardless of his BA, I was impressed with how approached the game a month ago. I think there is a role on a good team for a player like Kepp. Whether they move EE or AGon depends more on finances and what they can get for them than whether Kepp hits .350 or .290.

Always Red
08-19-2007, 08:04 PM
Can he really play SS? There was a ball today that went up the middle that I thought Gonzo gets every time; Kepp wasn't near it.

I don't know if Kepp can play major league quality SS or not; it's a serious question. Aurilia played it for stretches last year when Narron was trying to get his stick in the lineup more often, and it was clear to me that Rich was no longer an MLB SS.

I love what I see in Keppinger- who doesn't? A pleasant surprise coming from nowhere is always a good thing. Play the hot hand, and when (and if) he proves himself to be a utility player, then you haven't lost anything. I love a guy like him coming off the bench. If he can push Gonzo or EE for a starting job, well that's even better.

Competition is always a good thing. But don't count on him for a starter. Hopefully the Reds have learned that lesson from Ryan Freel. Don't overpay him, don't sign him to a LTC, don't hand him a starting position, but DO count on him for bench strength. That's what I'd do, and I'd do the same for Norris Hopper, as well.

But I love the way they are both hitting right now!

SteelSD
08-19-2007, 11:49 PM
I have liked what I've seen from Keppinger this year. A month ago I stated as much and compared his skills to Bill Mueller at which time a stat heavy poster replied.

Next time, cite my username when quoting a post I authored rather than using "stat-heavy poster". Keppinger didn't comp with Mueller then and doesn't comp with him now. That has to do with certain real-life historical performance numbers you don't care to understand.

camisadelgolf
08-20-2007, 12:23 AM
I just wish that, for once, the Reds would trade someone at peak value instead of running them into the ground.

It appears Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns were at peak value. :duel:

BCubb2003
08-20-2007, 01:04 AM
Are there any examples of Keppinger/Freel types who beat the odds and, when they finally got their chance, became solid major leaguers and never looked back?

westofyou
08-20-2007, 01:07 AM
Are there any examples of Keppinger/Freel types who beat the odds and, when they finally got their chance, became solid major leaguers and never looked back?

http://www.thrillofthegrass.com/Dad's%20Sports%20Photos/Sports%20Stars%20-%20Eddie%20Stanky%20-%20July.jpg

RedsManRick
08-20-2007, 09:51 AM
Are there any examples of Keppinger/Freel types who beat the odds and, when they finally got their chance, became solid major leaguers and never looked back?

Keppinger was a 4th round draft pick. Freel was a 10th round pick. Neither were complete surprises. Once you get past the first few rounds, there aren't too many superstar type talents left.

Keppinger reminds me a lot of Todd Walker. Consistent glove, but poor range. Great contact, good patience, mediocre pop.

KronoRed
08-20-2007, 02:39 PM
Shame we can never find a late bloomer like Phil Nevin :)

BRM
08-20-2007, 05:12 PM
Keppinger has a big fan in Lonnie Wheeler. Norris Hopper too.


The Reds are suddenly a pleasant diversion, and it’s not just because they’re winning a little. It’s because of Norris Hopper and Jeff Keppinger, and the way they play.

When the two of them are together at the top of the order, good things happen. Not big things, necessarily. Not home runs or even loud doubles, for the most part. But a chippie here, a bleeder there, a bunt in between, and men on base on a regular basis.

Largely because of those two, the Reds are suddenly very different than they were seven weeks ago. Pete Mackanin has a part in that, too. So does Jared Burton, who, in a short time, has demonstrated what a single sharp reliever can mean to a team with a disastrous shortage of those. Bill Bray is beginning to help in that regard, as well. Even Gary Majewski.

Maybe it’s just the winning . . . maybe it’s Mackanin . . . maybe it’s my imagination . . . but the Reds seem, also, to be playing with a lot more heart these days. They come from behind. They win games that seemed lost. They hold leads. They thrive under pressure. They succeed on the road.

It’s all probably not enough to get them back in the race for the division title. At the moment, though, it’s enough to restore a bit of interest.

There’s that, at least.

fearofpopvol1
08-20-2007, 10:59 PM
3 for 4 tonight with a walk bringing his BA up to .382. Who does he think he is with that high batting average? George Brett??

Big Klu
08-20-2007, 11:08 PM
Kepp-O-Meter: .382

The Baumer
08-21-2007, 04:29 AM
I don't know why Keppinger's average surprises anyone. If you look at the trend (42 base hits in 110 at bats) the stats point toward a batting average of .382.