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View Full Version : Junior '06 vs. '07



remdog
08-12-2007, 08:40 PM
I was looking at Juniors stats for '06 vs. '07 at 109 games played. Remarkably consistant with last year except that he's roughly doubled his walk totals with almost the same number of base hits to bump his average up 20 points and his OBP almost 70. His power numbers remain virturally the same. Oh yeah, he added 6 SBs. :) Pretty remarkable year for Junior. Especially with learning a 'new' position. ;)


2006 109 428 62 108 19 0 27 72 208 39 78 0 0 .316 .486 .252
2007 109 389 62 106 14 0 27 72 201 73 72 6 0 .384 .517 .272

Rem

camisadelgolf
08-12-2007, 08:43 PM
At the beginning of the year, and he was possibly being tongue in cheek, he was saying that his wrist injury probably helped him because it taught him to be more patient (since he wouldn't able to pull all the balls he could right before the injury).

GAC
08-12-2007, 08:49 PM
And while it's obvious that Jr has lost a step - and who wouldn't at not only his age, but also all the surgeries - but I don't think he has been playing a terrible RF. Of course I'm sure there are those who will tell me he has. ;)

I've stated it before that I have no problem whatsoever with Jr playing out his contract and manning RF till a more suitable answer appears. His contract is up after next year, with a team buyout of 4 mil for '09, and that coincides with the possibility of the readiness of Jay Bruce.

And I think that is the approach that is being taken. What other options do we have with Jr as long as he can void any trade deal, and there haven't been too many teams expressing interest in him, due to age and injury history?

jojo
08-12-2007, 08:51 PM
Unfortunately he has come down to earth after his great first half of the season:

First Half: .286/.390/.568
Second Half: .235/.361/.373

Jr's July was horrid while August has been more encouraging but I worry that despite his great first half, his year-end totals will be consistent with a trend downward over his last several seasons.

GAC
08-12-2007, 09:00 PM
Unfortunately he has come down to earth after his great first half of the season:

First Half: .286/.390/.568
Second Half: .235/.361/.373

Jr's July was horrid while August has been more encouraging but I worry that despite his great first half, his year-end totals will be consistent with a trend downward over his last several seasons.

But you can find even the best of players who have a mediocre to bad month during the course of the season. Consistency is sometimes a hard thing to come by. Lets see what he does overall.

remdog
08-12-2007, 09:04 PM
But you can find even the best of players who have a mediocre to bad month during the course of the season. Consistency is sometimes a hard thing to come by. Lets see what he does overall.

I agree with that. Unless he gets hurt tomorrow (I know, I know. I shouldn't even mention that)he's a virtual lock to surpass last year in every category.

Rem

Patrick Bateman
08-12-2007, 09:16 PM
Unfortunately he has come down to earth after his great first half of the season:

First Half: .286/.390/.568
Second Half: .235/.361/.373

Jr's July was horrid while August has been more encouraging but I worry that despite his great first half, his year-end totals will be consistent with a trend downward over his last several seasons.

At least he's still walking. I have always thought Junior's key was walking. If he remains patient, the power will come.

KoryMac5
08-12-2007, 09:21 PM
He is after all 38 and in the dog days of summer Mack and Narron haven't been able to get him a breather. I am sure this has something to do with his recent swoon. When I saw him in Pittsburgh he did look a bit tired.

jojo
08-12-2007, 09:23 PM
But you can find even the best of players who have a mediocre to bad month during the course of the season. Consistency is sometimes a hard thing to come by. Lets see what he does overall.

Here's the bigger point though. Jr's overall value as a RFer just isn't an advantage for the Reds. Among fulltime RFers, PBP metrics like UZR thinks Jr's the worst defensive right fielder in the majors (he's probably a legitimate -20 defender). Offensively, he's on pace for 91 RC if he gets 600 PA. NL average for LF will likely be somewhere around 78. Given his defense, his total impact to the RS/RA for the Reds might be something below that of an average right fielder. Thats pretty much meh.

remdog
08-12-2007, 09:32 PM
but I don't think he has been playing a terrible RF. Of course I'm sure there are those who will tell me he has. ;)

How could you have possibly known that! You must have been Karnak the Magnificent in another life! :p:

Rem

jojo
08-12-2007, 09:42 PM
How could you have possibly known that! You must have been Karnak the Magnificent in another life! :p:

Rem

Because reality seeps into our conscienciousness even though our subconscious may be rendered unconscious through existential impossibility?

http://www.freesmileys.org/emo/think005.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

Blitz Dorsey
08-12-2007, 10:17 PM
Has anyone else noticed that Griffey looks like he's in much better shape this season than in the past? Less of a double-chin, not quite as chubby, looks a little stronger.

mth123
08-12-2007, 10:25 PM
Has anyone else noticed that Griffey looks like he's in much better shape this season than in the past? Less of a double-chin, not quite as chubby, looks a little stronger.

I've noticed and if you are suggesting that it has helped his game, I'm in complete agreement.

Phhhl
08-12-2007, 10:30 PM
Junior is a once in a lifetime player. Last year was an aberration, as far as his .obp is conerned. It doesn't surprise me at all that he has a had a solid season at the plate and in right field this year. I am much more surprised when he struggles. His age is not prohibitive to the performance level he has shown this year for a couple of more seasons. In fact, I believe he has an outside shot at 700 home runs if he goes to the Junior Circuit as a dh.

VR
08-13-2007, 12:09 AM
Has anyone else noticed that Griffey looks like he's in much better shape this season than in the past? Less of a double-chin, not quite as chubby, looks a little stronger.

It was noted in the offseason that Jr. was working cardio all winter, as opposed to the weight regiment he's been on since he came to Cincy.

GAC
08-13-2007, 09:23 AM
How could you have possibly known that! You must have been Karnak the Magnificent in another life!



Rem

I just got BIG crystal balls.

http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/thumb/e/e1/180px-Johnny_as_carnac.jpg

GAC
08-13-2007, 09:33 AM
Here's the bigger point though. Jr's overall value as a RFer just isn't an advantage for the Reds. Among fulltime RFers, PBP metrics like UZR thinks Jr's the worst defensive right fielder in the majors (he's probably a legitimate -20 defender).

thinks? Don't they know if he is the worst RFer in MLB? Can't they show something more concrete?

Offensively, he's on pace for 91 RC if he gets 600 PA. NL average for LF will likely be somewhere around 78.

So that is above average. But he's a RFer, not LFer. And how does any of the above, runs created (which is offense), have anything to do with gauging his defensive ability/play in RF?

By the below?..... runs scored vs runs allowed


Given his defense, his total impact to the RS/RA for the Reds might be something below that of an average right fielder. Thats pretty much meh.

Again - might be?

Respectfully, it sounds like you're making assumptions and using guess work when utilizing the analogy of runs scored vs runs allowed.

PuffyPig
08-13-2007, 12:02 PM
Remarkably consistant with last year except that he's roughly doubled his walk totals with almost the same number of base hits to bump his average up 20 points and his OBP almost 70.


I'd suggest that his year has been the opposite of consistent, when comparted to last year.

A doubling of walks to bump up his OBA about 70 points is the difference between a fair year and an excellent one.

remdog
08-13-2007, 12:26 PM
I'd suggest that his year has been the opposite of consistent, when comparted to last year.

A doubling of walks to bump up his OBA about 70 points is the difference between a fair year and an excellent one.

That's why I said 'except'.

Rem

jojo
08-13-2007, 12:37 PM
thinks? Don't they know if he is the worst RFer in MLB? Can't they show something more concrete?

Based upon UZR, JR is the worst rated RFer among starting RFers in the majors. It's crystal clear from UZR's perspective. I used "thinks"-that's MY language. When I only refer to one PBP metric to support a point, generally I try to soften the language.


Offensively, he's on pace for 91 RC if he gets 600 PA. NL average for LF will likely be somewhere around 78.

So that is above average. But he's a RFer, not LFer. And how does any of the above, runs created (which is offense), have anything to do with gauging his defensive ability/play in RF?

By the below?..... runs scored vs runs allowed

I think it should be fairly obvious that the "LF" was a typo and should have read "RF" but I'm sorry for any confusion that may have caused.

The point of considering both offense and defense was to get a true sense of Jr's actual worth. It's not that his bat in some way informs his defense. Rather it's his defense that cancels out the the impact his bat has on the Reds run differential.

As it is, Jr's bat looks to be maybe a win or so above league average in RF assuming July was just a blip. His defense completely wipes out that advantage and really makes him a liability overall as an outfielder. Jr no longer is an elite player. If the Reds insist upon playing him in the outfield, Jr really is simply trying to tread water and the Reds are often at a disadvantage.

Given the drag represented by his glove, there is tremendous pressure on Jr's bat. Frankly, his bat isn't good enough to rise to the occasion as an outfielder. His range really is that bad.



Respectfully, it sounds like you're making assumptions and using guess work when utilizing the analogy of runs scored vs runs allowed.

What I am doing is using ranges rather than speaking in absolutes while erroring in Jr's favor with each estimate. The only real assumptions I've made are that Jr isn't as bad defensively as UZR suggests he's been through the ASB (it thinks Jr is much worse than an -20 defender given 150 games) and that Jr's July was simply a rough patch and he's more likely to finish the year closer to his current season totals than his July split.

Nobody has a crystal ball. I'm not sure why that would be used as an argument against an estimate.

PuffyPig
08-13-2007, 12:39 PM
That's why I said 'except'.

Rem

But isn't that like saying "I'm rich, except that I am poor?";)

GAC
08-13-2007, 09:05 PM
The point of considering both offense and defense was to get a true sense of Jr's actual worth.

And I understand that. They are trying to give a "sense" of overall. And comparing runs created with runs allowed will give that.


It's not that his bat in some way informs his defense. Rather it's his defense that cancels out the the impact his bat has on the Reds run differential.

And IMHO, that's what makes it an incomplete (fallible) forumula (or analogy) to try an evalute/gauge one's defensive capabilites by comparing them to offensive capabilities and come up with a differential.

For instance.... take a RFer who is a superb defensive OFer but is weak offensively. Wouldn't that give a (-) differential? And is that a sound way, using the differential, to evaluate him defensively?

If one's bat does not necessarily inform (or impact) his defense, then how one then say it does though the other way around?


Jr no longer is an elite player. If the Reds insist upon playing him in the outfield, Jr really is simply trying to tread water and the Reds are often at a disadvantage.

No one, including myself, denies that Jr is no longer that elite defensive OFer. Certainly he has "lost a step" and his range is not what it once was. That is the main reason he is no longer in CF.

But I have yet to see anything definitive that shows Jr as hurting/costing the Reds, and more importantly, is the worst RFer in MLB.

"treading water" in RF? I've watched practically every game this year, and while he has taken time to get acclimated to RF, he has played a very capable (not elite) RF IMO.

pahster
08-13-2007, 09:22 PM
GAC: To me, Jr. appears to be below average in RF because of the number of balls that fall in front of him. It seems as if (and I'd really need to see some kind of chart to be sure) nearly every shallow fly ball into right is either a hit or caught by Phillips.

jojo
08-13-2007, 11:10 PM
And I understand that. They are trying to give a "sense" of overall. And comparing runs created with runs allowed will give that.

So whats the debate about? :)


And IMHO, that's what makes it an incomplete (fallible) forumula (or analogy) to try an evalute/gauge one's defensive capabilites by comparing them to offensive capabilities and come up with a differential

For instance.... take a RFer who is a superb defensive OFer but is weak offensively. Wouldn't that give a (-) differential? And is that a sound way, using the differential, to evaluate him defensively?

It all depends upon just how good he is defensively and how weak he is offensively. But yes, clearly an above average defender could be a drag on a team's run differential. The minor leagues are full of feckless hitting, good fielding players whose gloves aren't good enough to carry their lack of production. Often times, a player like that can even make a team's 25 man roster. Occasionally there will be a rare player like an Everett whose defense will be so good that his bat can be really bad and overall he's still a significant advantage to his team relative to the league.

That said, there sees to be a physical limit to how much above average a defender can be simply because the human body has limits. However, how bad a defender can be seems only limited by the willingness of a manager to keep running a guy out there.

Generally the distribution is probably somewhere between -20 and +20 for major leaguers.


If one's bat does not necessarily inform (or impact) his defense, then how one then say it does though the other way around?

I'm not arguing one effects the other. I'm arguing that to accurately assess a player's true worth, you have to sum the values of both. A player may have a 3 win bat. But if he's a -2 win defender, then his true value is that of a 1 win player. You can then take it even another logical step further. Based upon market conditions there is a set price for a win. Right now it's roughly $3.5M. So if you're paying a 1 win player, $12M, you've made a bad personnel decision.


No one, including myself, denies that Jr is no longer that elite defensive OFer. Certainly he has "lost a step" and his range is not what it once was. That is the main reason he is no longer in CF.

But I have yet to see anything definitive that shows Jr as hurting/costing the Reds, and more importantly, is the worst RFer in MLB.

"treading water" in RF? I've watched practically every game this year, and while he has taken time to get acclimated to RF, he has played a very capable (not elite) RF IMO.

I'm not sure how it could get more definitive than charting every single defensive chance a player gets and categorizing them by where the ball was hit, how hard it was hit and what trajectory it took and then comparing his results to every single chance every other player who plays the same position has had while finally normalizing the data for a host of things like environment, handedness of the pitcher and batter etc.

It's not enough to watch every single game that Jr has played to get a sense of how he compares to the league. You have to also watch a significant portion of the games his colleagues played as well.

camisadelgolf
08-14-2007, 12:28 AM
One thing to keep in mind is that if you have a centerfielder and a second baseman with great range, it has less of an impact if your rightfielder has poor range. I don't think you can really say a player is hurting your team unless you take into consideration who is around him on the field.

jojo
08-14-2007, 06:32 AM
One thing to keep in mind is that if you have a centerfielder and a second baseman with great range, it has less of an impact if your rightfielder has poor range. I don't think you can really say a player is hurting your team unless you take into consideration who is around him on the field.

PBP metrics can account for the surrounding players.

GAC
08-14-2007, 09:23 AM
GAC: To me, Jr. appears to be below average in RF because of the number of balls that fall in front of him. It seems as if (and I'd really need to see some kind of chart to be sure) nearly every shallow fly ball into right is either a hit or caught by Phillips.

But respectfully, I've heard that position expounded before, that alot of balls hit to RF seem to fall in front of him OR it's the 2Bman going out and getting the shallow ones. There's that "no man's land" in the OF where a majority of OFers are going to have a hard time getting to the ball, and we see either the SS going back (left side of 2B) or the 2bman going back (right side of 2B).

And HOW does one determine that a ball hit into the OF, which falls in front of the Ofer, was catchable or should have been caught? Doesn't that lie more on the subjective? Does it take into account several other variables during that A/B, such as where the OFer positions himself due to who is A/B, runners on base, number of outs? Is he playing shallow, or is he playing deep?

For me to simply say, and I have done it, "Boy, so-and so should have had that ball" is IMO, pretty subjective."

When I have gone to to the games this year I, for the most part, like to sit in the RF seats or down along the 1bman line. To me, Jr's biggest problem, and it's a problem for most RFers, but maybe even a bigger one for Jr, are balls hit that go into the RF corner. He is not able to get over there fast enough to cut them off, and usually has to gauge them and try to play them off the walls.

Again - I'm not denying Jr's decreased lack of range and motion. Just the assumption that he is the worst RFer in MLB.

camisadelgolf
08-14-2007, 10:39 AM
PBP metrics can account for the surrounding players.

Cool. I don't really pay attention to defensive measurements too much (mainly because I trust what I see more than what paper tells me). Do you happen to know if most measurements account for the fields on which they're playing?

jojo
08-14-2007, 03:45 PM
Do you happen to know if most measurements account for the fields on which they're playing?

In the latest version of UZR, park is considered.

RedsManRick
08-14-2007, 04:07 PM
Again - I'm not denying Jr's decreased lack of range and motion. Just the assumption that he is the worst RFer in MLB.

To go the subjective route, who is worse defensively in RF than Junior?

As for the overall evaluation, given that we were using RC measurements which compared Junior to the average, aren't we merely saying that his defense brings the overall package down to average. Average is still better than half the starting RF out there right now and means Junior is an asset to the team. Whether average is worth 12M+ is another issue.

It would be very interesting do some RC analysis on the whole league, including defense, and just show the rank of Reds starting position players across the NL. The overall point being made is that while Junior (and Dunn for that matter) are both solidly above average offensive players, their below average defense tempers their overall value in the RS-RA equation.

pahster
08-14-2007, 07:06 PM
And HOW does one determine that a ball hit into the OF, which falls in front of the Ofer, was catchable or should have been caught? Doesn't that lie more on the subjective? Does it take into account several other variables during that A/B, such as where the OFer positions himself due to who is A/B, runners on base, number of outs? Is he playing shallow, or is he playing deep?

It would be relatively simple to determine how good or bad a job any fielder is doing relative to his peers with the correct dataset. In Jr.'s case, all we would have to do is compare the number and percent of plays he makes within his zones to that of every other RF. It's not perfect, but it would paint us a pretty good picture. I'd like to see a defensive chart of the 2007 Reds like the ones published in Dewan's Fielding Bible.

GAC
08-14-2007, 08:29 PM
To go the subjective route, who is worse defensively in RF than Junior?

That I couldn't tell you - subjectively. I'm really not able to watch alot of the other OFers throughout the majors.


It would be very interesting do some RC analysis on the whole league, including defense, and just show the rank of Reds starting position players across the NL. The overall point being made is that while Junior (and Dunn for that matter) are both solidly above average offensive players, their below average defense tempers their overall value in the RS-RA equation.

And I think the RS-RA equation can give one an indication of overall-ness. But I don't think it's a good indicator, is incomplete, when trying to breakdown/evaluate a player's offensive or defensive capabilites. Those, somehow, need to be broken down and looked at separatley to get an accurate "picture" IMHO.

And I am a huge skeptic at those defensive matrix that currently exist. I relaize that is all we have at this stage, but again, I think they are not a solid/reliable gauge.

With Runs Allowed - how is it charted? How is it determined what criteria must be met to classify a situation as "runs allowed"? Is it a group of guys sitting around charting balls hit into the OF (zones), and where run(s) are scored, subjectively saying "That ball should have been caught"? Or does it only qualify if the OFer commits an error on the play which allows run(s) to score? What is the criteria?

jojo
08-14-2007, 09:11 PM
And I think the RS-RA equation can give one an indication of overall-ness. But I don't think it's a good indicator, is incomplete, when trying to breakdown/evaluate a player's offensive or defensive capabilites. Those, somehow, need to be broken down and looked at separatley to get an accurate "picture" IMHO.

I'm starting to realize that we're probably not on the same page. A team's run differential isn't used to evaluate a player's ability. Rather a player's worth is determined by measuring how his overall ability effects his team's run differential.

Currently metrics such as RC or VORP estimate his true offensive value and PBP based metrics give the best picture of a player's true defensive value. A player's offensive and defensive abilities ARE determined separately. However to understand a player's true value, he must be evaluated by considering BOTH in concert-it's the sum of a player's defensive and offensive value that represents his effect on his team's run differential.

While traditionally estimating the offensive side of things was much more accurate than the defensive side of things, the defensive side is rapidly advancing. What's more, major league FOs are viewing players through this new prism since defense followed OBP as the market inefficiency that teams pounced upon.