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View Full Version : The Meaning of being 9 back on Aug 18....



jojo
08-18-2007, 06:30 PM
Basically when your record is 53-68, being 9 back on Aug 18th means your division sucks.

With 40 games left in the season, being 9 back is pretty much like Evel Knievel revving up his skycycle as it faces the ramp overlooking the snake river canyon... we might buy tickets to watch but really the potential for a miracle is much more illusion than reality. There's a reason an ambulance is standing by....

I want to believe. I do. I really do (as I suspect a lot of fellow Zoners do too).

Can you convince the cynics among us that we're way too down on the Reds? If so, this thread is for you....

Falls City Beer
08-18-2007, 06:53 PM
Three names: Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, and Dave Duncan.

That's why the Reds ain't winnin' zip.

Adam Wainwright, outside of Peavy and Webb, has been the NL's best starter over the last 2 1/2 or 3 months. He's absolutely smashed his competition. He should be plenty enough--with one more Pujols hot streak--to vault the Cards into the postseason.

And really, outside of San Diego's, St Louis's bullpen is outstanding.

NJReds
08-18-2007, 06:54 PM
And really, outside of San Diego's, St Louis's bullpen is outstanding.

Starring Ryan Franklin, AKA Redszone whipping boy. Go figure.

Matt700wlw
08-18-2007, 06:55 PM
Starring Ryan Franklin, AKA Redszone whipping boy. Go figure.

The magic that is Dave Duncan.

I don't know how he does it, but he does it.

Falls City Beer
08-18-2007, 06:56 PM
Go figure.

Hint: it begins with a "D" and ends with an "ave Duncan."

jojo
08-18-2007, 06:57 PM
Three names: Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, and Dave Duncan.

That's why the Reds ain't winnin' zip.

Adam Wainwright, outside of Peavy and Webb, has been the NL's best starter over the last 2 1/2 or 3 months. He's absolutely smashed his competition. He should be plenty enough--with one more Pujols hot streak--to vault the Cards into the postseason.

And really, outside of San Diego's, St Louis's bullpen is outstanding.

Hey...this thread is supposed to be for convincing us to believe...

We're not off to a good start.

http://www.freesmileys.org/emo/ad/bike2.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

Falls City Beer
08-18-2007, 06:59 PM
Hey...this thread is supposed to be for convincing us to believe...

We're not off to a good start.

http://www.freesmileys.org/emo/ad/bike2.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

The alpha dog still guards the trophy.

The Reds could be up 10 to 1 in the ninth inning of the game that would clench the division title, and they'd blow it--they lack the killer instinct. (And a bullpen).

Matt700wlw
08-18-2007, 06:59 PM
What does 9 back mean? Not much. It means the Reds aren't "out of it" and because of that, the young guys (like Votto) are going to stay put, at least until September...even then, they might if they're not going to get playing time...since the Reds may still be "in it"

jojo
08-18-2007, 07:01 PM
What does 9 back mean? Not much. It means the Reds aren't "out of it" and because of that, the young guys (like Votto) are going to stay put, at least until September...even then, they might if they're not going to get playing time...since the Reds may still be "in it"

So this could be argued as a worse case scenario if we were having this conversation back in June?

Matt700wlw
08-18-2007, 07:03 PM
So this could be argued as a worse case scenario if we were having this conversation back in June?

Could be, in a strange kind of way. That false sense to Krivsky that this team is closer than they really are....Pete Mackanin's the answer...he's getting the job done...

I still don't think Mackanin will be the manager in 2008...even if it's not Krivsky's call....but his boss' call. I sometimes wonder if Krivsky will survive this offseason, but a "dead cat bounce" could save his job and allow him to continue his tenure if it's even in doubt.


After 40 games (tonight is 40), I think Pete's done a good job......but maybe that just goes to show us what kind of job Narron really was doing...


What we're seeing is what we've seen the past 2 managerial changes. Miley comes in, gets fan support because he's "paid his dues" in the organization, gets the job....fails, gets fired. Narron takes over, has a good run, gets fan support, gets the job....GETS AN EXTENSION...gets fired. Mackanin comes in, having some success...getting some fan support...


The Reds have to think long and hard about if they want to do it again...

BCubb2003
08-18-2007, 07:06 PM
We need one of those stats that say, "Teams that are nine games back on Aug. 18 have an X percent chance of making the playoffs."

PuffyPig
08-18-2007, 07:06 PM
The Reds could be up 10 to 1 in the ninth inning of the game that would clench the division title, and they'd blow it--they lack the killer instinct. (And a bullpen).


Funny, as bad as that bullepn has been, we've won every game we've led into the 9th inning for over a year.

OnBaseMachine
08-18-2007, 07:06 PM
Ah yes. A thread praising the Cardinals, who are four games under .500 in a terrible division. And despite Wainwright's decent two months, his overall numbers are still very average at best. That 1.43 WHIP doesn't impress me at all.

IslandRed
08-18-2007, 07:09 PM
I don't know that I could construct a logical case for believing, but so what? If you want to believe, then suspend disbelief. I enjoy playing armchair GM as much as anyone, but we don't actually run the ballclub and there's no harm done if we have some irrational hope once in awhile.

oneupper
08-18-2007, 07:09 PM
We need one of those stats that say, "Teams that are nine games back on Aug. 18 have an X percent chance of making the playoffs."

Here's something, if it helps. If this team is a .500 team, as in that is their "fundamental" level, the chance that they can win AT LEAST 28 of the next 39 is 0.17%.

About 1 in 600, just to get back to .500.

Falls City Beer
08-18-2007, 07:10 PM
I just look at this division and see missed opportunity after missed opportunity to contend. And I blame it on Wayne Krivsky.

Does anyone honestly believe it will be any different next year if Wayne is still GM?

Falls City Beer
08-18-2007, 07:11 PM
Funny, as bad as that bullepn has been, we've won every game we've led into the 9th inning for over a year.

All the more reason to believe they'd choke it away.

BCubb2003
08-18-2007, 07:14 PM
I just look at this division and see missed opportunity after missed opportunity to contend. And I blame it on Wayne Krivsky.



He was rebuilding the farm system.

Razor Shines
08-18-2007, 07:16 PM
I don't know that I could construct a logical case for believing, but so what? If you want to believe, then suspend disbelief. I enjoy playing armchair GM as much as anyone, but we don't actually run the ballclub and there's no harm done if we have some irrational hope once in awhile.

I feel pretty much the same way. It doesn't hurt anything for me to hope that they have a chance.

WVRedsFan
08-18-2007, 07:22 PM
He was rebuilding the farm system.

I have one thing to say to that. In the famous words of Col. Parker of MASH fame, "Horse Hockey"!

jojo
08-18-2007, 07:24 PM
We need one of those stats that say, "Teams that are nine games back on Aug. 18 have an X percent chance of making the playoffs."

Based upon Clay Davenport's mega analysis (Baseball Prospectus), as of noon today, the Reds have between a .2 and .7% chance of making the playoffs.

PuffyPig
08-18-2007, 07:24 PM
Three names: Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, and Dave Duncan.

That's why the Reds ain't winnin' zip.

Adam Wainwright, outside of Peavy and Webb, has been the NL's best starter over the last 2 1/2 or 3 months. He's absolutely smashed his competition. He should be plenty enough--with one more Pujols hot streak--to vault the Cards into the postseason.

And really, outside of San Diego's, St Louis's bullpen is outstanding.


Harang has been much better than Wainwright over the last 2.5 months, as has Zambrano,Hudson,Penny,Oswalt,Lowry,Hamels etc.

Wainwright is pitching good since June 1, but he simply isn't as dominate as the others.

Wainwright is 7-5 with an ERA of about 3 since June 1.

Nice, but not close to being in the top group.

Matt700wlw
08-18-2007, 07:25 PM
Harang has been much better than Wainwright over the last 2.5 months, as has Zambrano,Hudson,Penny,Oswalt,Lowry,Hamels etc.

Wainwright is pitching good since June 1, but he simply isn't as dominate as the others.

Wainwright is 7-5 with an ERA of about 3 since June 1.

Nice, but not close to being in the top group.

But he's a Cardinal...that trumps everything :D

jojo
08-18-2007, 07:28 PM
I don't know that I could construct a logical case for believing, but so what? If you want to believe, then suspend disbelief. I enjoy playing armchair GM as much as anyone, but we don't actually run the ballclub and there's no harm done if we have some irrational hope once in awhile.

We as crazy devoted Reds fans all have irrational hope somewhere within us that gets entertained if only for a fleeting, quiet moment that may only creep briefly into our consciousness (yes that goes for FCB too even if he won't admit it to us or even himself for that matter).

I'm pleading for a reason to have rational hope....

PuffyPig
08-18-2007, 07:36 PM
But he's a Cardinal...that trumps everything :D


And Pineiro?

I was speechless on that one.

He's followed up a rough debut with 2 good outings. A liitle early to be giving him the Cy Young Award.

OnBaseMachine
08-18-2007, 07:40 PM
And Pineiro?

I was speechless on that one.

He's followed up a rough debut with 2 good outings. A liitle early to be giving him the Cy Young Award.

I lterally fell out of my chair laughing when I heard that Wainwright and Pineiro were the reasons why the Reds weren't winning anything this year. I sort of hope Jocketty and LaRussa come to the Reds this offseason just so we no longer have to listen to the Cardinals praise on this board.

Strikes Out Looking
08-18-2007, 08:02 PM
9 back on 8/18 shows that WK needs to have his radar fixed because when he needed to make a move in May, it wasn't on his radar yet. Now it's sadly too late, but 2 games in May, 2 in June and 2 in July would put the Reds right in the thick of things and with a different manager that may have happened.

nate
08-18-2007, 09:31 PM
I just look at this division and see missed opportunity after missed opportunity to contend. And I blame it on Wayne Krivsky.

Does anyone honestly believe it will be any different next year if Wayne is still GM?

Yes. I firmly believe a year from today we wont be 53-68 with 576 runs scored and 638 runs allowed.

KronoRed
08-18-2007, 10:43 PM
I believe ..

That the Reds will once again sit home this playoff season

:D

flyer85
08-18-2007, 10:44 PM
Based upon Clay Davenport's mega analysis (Baseball Prospectus), as of noon today, the Reds have between a .2 and .7% chance of making the playoffs.[Lloyd Christmas] So you're telling me there's a chance. [/Lloyd Christmas]

OldRightHander
08-18-2007, 11:17 PM
Funny, as bad as that bullepn has been, we've won every game we've led into the 9th inning for over a year.

And you know what else? Throughout their history, the Reds have won 100% of the games in which they lead after nine innings.