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View Full Version : Narron, Mackanin, and the Bullpen



camisadelgolf
08-19-2007, 03:00 AM
Here's a little food for thought about 2007:


Manager Overall Bullpen
WinPct. W L ERA
Jerry Narron .378 10 18 4.83
Pete Mackanin .550 8 3 6.01

I think the consensus would say that a large part of the Reds having done so poorly this year is due to the bullpen. Well, overall, the bullpen is performing significantly worse under Pete Mackanin than under Jerry Narron, and yet the Reds are still finding ways to win. What is the difference?

Here's how I see it: It's inevitable that your bullpen will give up runs. The key is being able to predict when that is so you can use them in mop-up situations. That's where Jerry Narron really failed, in my opinion. If he were able to manage the bullpen like Mackanin is doing, I think the Reds could be in a position similar to the Cardinals' this year. Oh, well. Maybe next year . . .

WVRedsFan
08-19-2007, 03:25 AM
Here's a little food for thought about 2007:


Manager Overall Bullpen
WinPct. W L ERA
Jerry Narron .378 10 18 4.83
Pete Mackanin .550 8 3 6.01

I think the consensus would say that a large part of the Reds having done so poorly this year is due to the bullpen. Well, overall, the bullpen is performing significantly worse under Pete Mackanin than under Jerry Narron, and yet the Reds are still finding ways to win. What is the difference?

Here's how I see it: It's inevitable that your bullpen will give up runs. The key is being able to predict when that is so you can use them in mop-up situations. That's where Jerry Narron really failed, in my opinion. If he were able to manage the bullpen like Mackanin is doing, I think the Reds could be in a position similar to the Cardinals' this year. Oh, well. Maybe next year . . .

Notice very closely. When Mackanin sends the same suspects into the bullpen Jerry did (Stanton, et al), you get the same results. Earlier on, he had Coutlangus, Burton and others to go to. Tonight he sent in Krivsky's boys (Stanton, Majewski, and Eddie--given Majik did a really good job) and the result was disaster. 3-1 going in and an 8-4 result. Avoiding Krivsky's contracts (Stanton, Majek, etc) is the key to success.

Razor Shines
08-19-2007, 03:32 AM
He may be better or may just be getting lucky. He, like Narron, seems to be locked into using Stanton in close games.

camisadelgolf
08-19-2007, 04:01 AM
Avoiding Krivsky's contracts (Stanton, Majek, etc) is the key to success.

If it weren't for Krivsky's contracts, the Reds wouldn't have David Weathers.

redsmetz
08-19-2007, 08:17 AM
Notice very closely. When Mackanin sends the same suspects into the bullpen Jerry did (Stanton, et al), you get the same results. Earlier on, he had Coutlangus, Burton and others to go to. Tonight he sent in Krivsky's boys (Stanton, Majewski, and Eddie--given Majik did a really good job) and the result was disaster. 3-1 going in and an 8-4 result. Avoiding Krivsky's contracts (Stanton, Majek, etc) is the key to success.

There is no one presently in the bullpen, except David Weathers, who isn't a "Krivsky boy" and one can argue that Weathers is one of "Krivsky's boys" because he resigned him. The only way to avoid "Krivsky's contracts" as "key to success" in relief is for all of your starters to never need to be relieved.

GAC
08-19-2007, 09:48 AM
There is no one presently in the bullpen, except David Weathers, who isn't a "Krivsky boy" and one can argue that Weathers is one of "Krivsky's boys" because he resigned him. The only way to avoid "Krivsky's contracts" as "key to success" in relief is for all of your starters to never need to be relieved.

Amen. And I have noticed that Pete is using Burton and Bray (since he's came back) more. It appears that he is giving these young guys more opps.

Coffeys gone, and rightfully so IMO, until he learns (or regains) how to throw something other than his fastball.

As far as Majewski - it's a given that this kid has sucked terribly in 2007.....

Due to injury he has only pitched 9.2 innings (that's not much). And here are his numbers....

12.10 ERA
13 ERS
21 HITS
2 HRS
.460 OB%
.625 SLG%
1.985 OPS
.438 BAA

Now if one looks at his two previously seasons with the Nationals (2005 - partial 2006), this kid put up some pretty decent numbers in 141.1 IPs....

3.25 ERA
1.36 WHIP
.240 BAA
.326 OB%
.346 SLG%
.672 OPS
30 HOLDS

So what is currently up with this kid? To simply say "he sucks!" doesn't address what is going on. If you were a GM hunting for a reliever, especially in this market, and looking at those numbers above, and the fact he is only making around the league minimum ($327,000), would you acquire him if available?

With the Bats in '07 he's pitched reasonably well with a 3.89 ERA, .239 BAA, and 30/15 K/BB ratio in 38 2/3 innings.

Now earlier this year, when Majewski was called back, I had listened to a few commentators on Gary that stated the BIG QUESTION MARK on him was will he get his fastball back after the "tired" (inflammed) shoulder? And he was hitting in the low 90s upon his initial return.

So is it an issue of getting IPs and getting back on form with Majewski? Is there an emotional element where he is now a "head case" over the shoulder? Or is he still damaged goods?

LvJ
08-19-2007, 10:15 AM
Narron was using the wrong guys at the wrong time giving up the wrong amount of runs at the wrong time. Mackanin has somehow, like you said, figured out a way to let the bullpen suck at times when it doesn't really matter. Not all the time, but at a lesser percentage than Narron did.

mbgrayson
08-19-2007, 11:27 AM
It is fairly simple, really, to explain why Mackanin's win-loss record is better, while the ERA is worse.

Mackanin saves the 'good' pitchers (Bray, Burton, & Weathers, previously Coutlangus) for games we have a good chance to win. They have mostly come through for him.

On games where innings have to be eaten up in a likely losing cause, we see Stanton, Eddie G., Coffey, et al.

It is guys knowing their roles. Some of it is luck, or a regression to the mean. Certainly the actual pitching is not better, but the management of it seems to be.

nate
08-19-2007, 11:29 AM
Amen. And I have noticed that Pete is using Burton and Bray (since he's came back) more. It appears that he is giving these young guys more opps.

Fay with a Pete quote from Thursday:


"If (Bill) Bray had been available all year, I might not be here."

VR
08-19-2007, 12:33 PM
I'd be surprised to see Tommy Hume back next year.

KronoRed
08-19-2007, 02:22 PM
Well I wouldn't be, Hume seems to be pretty immune

Cyclone792
08-19-2007, 05:53 PM
It is fairly simple, really, to explain why Mackanin's win-loss record is better, while the ERA is worse.

Mackanin saves the 'good' pitchers (Bray, Burton, & Weathers, previously Coutlangus) for games we have a good chance to win. They have mostly come through for him.

On games where innings have to be eaten up in a likely losing cause, we see Stanton, Eddie G., Coffey, et al.

It is guys knowing their roles. Some of it is luck, or a regression to the mean. Certainly the actual pitching is not better, but the management of it seems to be.

That's precisely my take too.

Today's game in Milwaukee is the perfect example.

Harang pitches into the 7th inning, but gives up another home run and gets yanked in a game in which the Reds are trailing by only one run. Mackanin brings in Bray to close down the 7th inning, and Bray gets out of the inning on one pitch.

Burton then comes in the 8th inning and strikes two guys out while giving up an infield hit. With the Reds leading by one (possibly more if they score right now in the 9th), I'm sure we'll see Weathers on to try to close it out.

One of Narron's main problems with the bullpen was that he couldn't figure out who were the better relievers on the staff. If Narron were still here, it'd be Stanton and Guardado pitching in seemingly all the late inning high leverage situations, the bullpen would still be blowing leads on a regular basis.

WVRedsFan
08-19-2007, 07:24 PM
That's precisely my take too.

Today's game in Milwaukee is the perfect example.

Harang pitches into the 7th inning, but gives up another home run and gets yanked in a game in which the Reds are trailing by only one run. Mackanin brings in Bray to close down the 7th inning, and Bray gets out of the inning on one pitch.

Burton then comes in the 8th inning and strikes two guys out while giving up an infield hit. With the Reds leading by one (possibly more if they score right now in the 9th), I'm sure we'll see Weathers on to try to close it out.

One of Narron's main problems with the bullpen was that he couldn't figure out who were the better relievers on the staff. If Narron were still here, it'd be Stanton and Guardado pitching in seemingly all the late inning high leverage situations, the bullpen would still be blowing leads on a regular basis.

Pete still does that and it drives me crazy. Take last night. In a close game and you bring in Majewski (who pitched well) after Stanton lets it get out of hand. You end it with Guardado, and I mean really end it. Today, he picked his relievers from that list with good ERA's and who allow less hits than innings pitched. Voila, they do well. Last night he picked pitchers with high ERA's (one still recovering from surgery) with high hit counts and the result was predictible.

Unlike Narron, Pete seems to learn from his mistakes.

dfs
08-20-2007, 10:57 AM
One of Narron's main problems with the bullpen was that he couldn't figure out who were the better relievers on the staff. If Narron were still here, it'd be Stanton and Guardado pitching in seemingly all the late inning high leverage situations, the bullpen would still be blowing leads on a regular basis.

I'm not sure if Narron didn't know or if he was just never willing to concede a game. Worked out the same either way.

RedsManRick
08-20-2007, 11:23 AM
There's a great article on BP right now about how the D'backs pythag is skewed by good bullpen management.

Weak offense + great back of the bullpen + horrible mop up guys = close wins and big losses.

It does seem like Burton has grabbed the job of set up guy. The walks are the only thing against him at the moment, and while they are still a problem, they're manageable. What's really notable is how unhittable he's been. .200/.342/.253. Walks don't hurt as much when guys aren't getting hits and are getting even fewer extra base hits. He's got some really nasty stuff. Great to see somebody back there striking guys out.

Sea Ray
08-20-2007, 11:33 AM
In Narron's defense, the Burton of August 2007 is nothing like the Burton of April. I don't like how Narron used the pen but he didn't have much to work with either.

camisadelgolf
08-20-2007, 02:08 PM
In Narron's defense, the Burton of August 2007 is nothing like the Burton of April. I don't like how Narron used the pen but he didn't have much to work with either.

It's not that I disagree with you, but I think part of the reason you see a difference is that Burton twice went over a month without pitching in MLB due to injury and that Jerry Narron refused to use him. Mackanin has nothing to lose (besides baseball games), so he's allowed for Jared Burton to pitch consistently and get in a groove. Mackanin has used Burton twice as much as Narron did, and Mackanin has been the manager for a little more than half as long this season.

Rojo
08-20-2007, 07:18 PM
Mackanin has nothing to lose (besides baseball games), so he's allowed for Jared Burton to pitch consistently and get in a groove.


I think "groove" is the right word. Narron never let anyone get into one. He'd throw a guy who was struggling into a tight game instead of easing back him with some no-pressure innings.

He'd underuse a hot hand by getting all crazy righty-lefty.

He would yank a guy who was giving up squibs and dunks and let others twist in the wind.

I think his main sin was a lack of perception. The pitchers will "tell" you who they are with their play. But he was too intent on telling them.

Sea Ray
08-20-2007, 08:01 PM
Narron's problem was that he'd overuse everyone in the pen. He'd get a guy up every night and often use them for one or two batters. He never understood that some nights guys need to entire night off and that includes warming up. He'd use folks like Coffey for less than an inning which resulted in burning through additional pitchers and denying Coffey the chance to get settled.

mth123
08-20-2007, 09:47 PM
I think "groove" is the right word. Narron never let anyone get into one. He'd throw a guy who was struggling into a tight game instead of easing back him with some no-pressure innings.

He'd underuse a hot hand by getting all crazy righty-lefty.

He would yank a guy who was giving up squibs and dunks and let others twist in the wind.

I think his main sin was a lack of perception. The pitchers will "tell" you who they are with their play. But he was too intent on telling them.

Quoted for truth. Rep, rep, a million times rep.

Rojo
08-22-2007, 01:14 AM
Its like Mackinin comes into a fork in the road every night. Close game, we head down Burton-Bray-Weather street, blow out we ramble down everyone-else Boulevard. Tonight he started down the Boulevard with Majewski and then, oops, we can win this thing, left on Burton!

Hoosier Red
08-22-2007, 01:19 AM
Maybe my memory's going funny, but Majewski may just be turning into one who gets in the close game fork in the road.

At the very least he is the one who seems to decide where to go next if the team is one run down or so.

fearofpopvol1
08-22-2007, 01:24 AM
Bray, Burton and Weathers to finish out games. It may be a winning combo.

WVRedsFan
08-22-2007, 03:12 AM
Bray, Burton and Weathers to finish out games. It may be a winning combo.

I have had this dream for some time. David Weathers will someday blow up. Tonight, he not only allowed a hit, but walked another and only a spectacular play got him the save. Bray and Burton have some upside, but most of this bullpen is fodder. you cannot continue to runt he same arms out every game.

Mac will learn this, but for tonight it worked again, but Weathers was only one inch from being the goat. Time for the Reds to spend some money on pitching. Trouble is, I don't trust Krivsky to do it. Same guy who brought us Stanton and Cromier. Think about it.

fearofpopvol1
08-22-2007, 03:38 AM
I have had this dream for some time. David Weathers will someday blow up. Tonight, he not only allowed a hit, but walked another and only a spectacular play got him the save. Bray and Burton have some upside, but most of this bullpen is fodder. you cannot continue to runt he same arms out every game.

Mac will learn this, but for tonight it worked again, but Weathers was only one inch from being the goat. Time for the Reds to spend some money on pitching. Trouble is, I don't trust Krivsky to do it. Same guy who brought us Stanton and Cromier. Think about it.

But he also got Burton. Bullpen guys can be a crapshoot to some extent. In all fairness, age aside, Mike Stanton had been an exceptional bullpen arm for his career. Obviously, it's turned out to be a disaster. Cormier was not a good pickup at all, but we were in a race and while I wish he traded someone else instead of Germano, it is what it is.

I'm curious to see what McBeth may do with some extended time up here. He's killing it in AAA. Coutlangus appeared to be very servicable while he was in the majors. Salmon has been up and down, but he may be useful too. I think the Reds really need to invest money in a proven closer and at least 1 more quality reliever. They just don't have any bullpen guys that are "automatic." Burton is the closest thing they have to that right now, but he's still somewhat unproven.

VR
08-22-2007, 09:33 AM
I think "groove" is the right word. Narron never let anyone get into one. He'd throw a guy who was struggling into a tight game instead of easing back him with some no-pressure innings.

He'd underuse a hot hand by getting all crazy righty-lefty.

He would yank a guy who was giving up squibs and dunks and let others twist in the wind.

I think his main sin was a lack of perception. The pitchers will "tell" you who they are with their play. But he was too intent on telling them.


I think you nailed it. He's leading the team by staying out of way.

Sea Ray
08-22-2007, 10:37 AM
Its like Mackinin comes into a fork in the road every night. Close game, we head down Burton-Bray-Weather street, blow out we ramble down everyone-else Boulevard. Tonight he started down the Boulevard with Majewski and then, oops, we can win this thing, left on Burton!

I'm guessing Narron would have pulled Burton and not allowed him to pitch that 2nd inning. That would have removed a "hot" pitcher, replacing him with a lesser one and burned another arm in the pen. That's why Narron is back in North Carolina as we speak.

camisadelgolf
08-23-2007, 05:25 AM
The Reds' bullpen need to lose their next 15 decisions in 2007 to have the same win-loss record under Pete Mackanin as Jerry Narron. Meanwhile, Mackanin's bullpen ERA is 0.82 worse than Narron's.