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icehole3
08-19-2007, 10:22 AM
Match the post with the poster

1. I think he will be a worse version of Mike Cameron.

2. I've seen Stubbs play...4-5 times now and I see Szymanski.

3. If he doesn't make it the bigs hes going to be a bust,
if he makes it and is an average player he will be a bust.

4. The guy is playing in Low A and came from a major college program.
He was a top 10 pick. Add that up and he should be tearing the league apart.

5. He seems like another Adam Dunn without the power.

6. People are hunting around in the dark with their hands to find something,
ANYTHING for which to praise this guy.

*answers below*







1. Benihana
2. dfs
3. bucksfan2
4. edabbs44
5. AmarilloRed
6. Falls City Beer


http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=58893&highlight=stubbs

AmarilloRed
08-19-2007, 08:57 PM
I am ashamed by that post now. At the time he was striking out a lot and not showing much power. It shows how much a prospect can change in a short amount of time. Still, I imagine we all post items that we would prefer to not have remembered. Goes with the territory.

camisadelgolf
08-19-2007, 10:05 PM
This is my favorite quote:


He's Chris Dickerson with a less famous father.

icehole3
08-20-2007, 06:31 AM
Amarillo, I think I said this before I appreciate you standing up to your comments. When I've said some things here at Redzone that I've been somewhat ashamed about I've apologized, I wish all these guys would stand up for these comments about one of our own in Drew Stubbs instead of waiting for him to go into a slump.

dfs
08-20-2007, 10:08 AM
I know his recent string of success has folks excited and as a fan I hope I'm wrong, but I'll stand by my comments. I've seen the guy hit 35-40 times now and I've still never seen him drive the ball. As he moves up the ladder and infield defenses get tighter and pitching gets better, he's going to evaporate.

icehole3
08-20-2007, 12:10 PM
if you have Time warner cable turn to channel 1111 and go to the Dragon's game either July 15 or 16 the lastest game they have uploaded, he hits a leadoff homer to start the game, it'll only take 5 minutes of your very valuable time.

edabbs44
08-20-2007, 12:51 PM
4. The guy is playing in Low A and came from a major college program.
He was a top 10 pick. Add that up and he should be tearing the league apart.


I think this is mine which I am still on board with. It's great to see him start to do something, but he's a long ways away. I think you should do another one on Sean Watson, as the board seems to have cooled considerably since the jump.

dougdirt
08-20-2007, 12:57 PM
I personally still love Watson. The stuff is still there, he just seems to have hit a brick wall. Its not surprising considering the innings he has thrown after being a reliever.

Patrick Bateman
08-20-2007, 01:08 PM
People should not be ashamed of what they wrote.

A hot stint in A ball shouldn't be enough to change somebody's opinions. If it is, then people shouldn't have been expressing such disdain for Stubbs in the first place.

Anyways, I continue to support Stubbs. I'm not at all surprised his game (and power) has taken an upwards surge. The key is to see how long he can continue this, and hopefully Stubbs can make a successful move to a higher level and prove some people wrong. He has the tools, and I firmly believe that he has the plate approach neccessary to be a success. As for now, it's much to early to be dishing out crow.

Caveat Emperor
08-20-2007, 01:19 PM
This is my favorite quote:

If I'd just gone for the simple "less famous last name," I'd have had a gold quote.

But NOOOOOooOOOO...I had to be the hero. ;)

OnBaseMachine
08-21-2007, 06:49 PM
I personally still love Watson. The stuff is still there, he just seems to have hit a brick wall. Its not surprising considering the innings he has thrown after being a reliever.

I agree with this. I am still a huge fan of Sean Watson. The stuff is there for him to be a very good starting pitcher IMO.

StillFunkyB
08-22-2007, 06:41 PM
This is my favorite quote:

Isn't he Eric Dickerson's cousin? That's what his bio says. That makes the quote even funnier! :D

cincyinco
08-24-2007, 02:19 AM
just goes to show what I constantly preach on here...

patience with prospects. 1 "bad" year does not make or break a prospect. just the same with a "good" year. gets frustrating sometimes at how quick the "faithful" stamp judgement on prospects around here without examining all possible info...

simply too early to write stubbs off... and too early to predict certain success as well

but you certainly have to feel better about stubb's status as a prospect than you did a year ago.

edabbs44
08-24-2007, 09:18 AM
just goes to show what I constantly preach on here...

patience with prospects. 1 "bad" year does not make or break a prospect. just the same with a "good" year. gets frustrating sometimes at how quick the "faithful" stamp judgement on prospects around here without examining all possible info...

simply too early to write stubbs off... and too early to predict certain success as well

but you certainly have to feel better about stubb's status as a prospect than you did a year ago.

Sure, but going from ice cold to lukewarm isn't great. He is still a far way from where he should be.

Benihana
08-24-2007, 11:34 AM
Ironically I stand by my quote. I still think he'll be a worse version of Mike Cameron.

That said, I'm happy to see his recent upsurge. Maybe he can be another Mike Cameron!

Or Steve Finley.

icehole3
08-24-2007, 12:09 PM
I figured you would wait until he cooled off, youre very funny.

Patrick Bateman
08-24-2007, 12:46 PM
You could do a lot worse than a version of Mike Cameron.

A terrific fielding centre fielder with on base abilities can be a very valuable commodity.

edabbs44
08-24-2007, 12:53 PM
You could do a lot worse than a version of Mike Cameron.

A terrific fielding centre fielder with on base abilities can be a very valuable commodity.

You could also do a lot better.

Patrick Bateman
08-24-2007, 01:10 PM
You could also do a lot better.

No question, and the expectations are certianly greater, but at this point, I think a lot of people would be pleased with that end result (including myself).

A more talented Chris Denorfia if you will. Not a bad player to have around. I didn't like the Stubbs pick either, but we can still be realistic here. He's likely not going to be more aluable than Tim Lincecum in his career, and likely won't reach his upside, but I could definitelysee Stubbs settling in to being a very solid player.

Anyways, what I was saying is that Benihana's description really isn't an insult to Stubbs right now like icehole was suggesting. A near Mike Cameron level player would be a nice commodity to have at the top of the order and could really give the Reds a shot to produce a decent fielding team.

camisadelgolf
08-24-2007, 02:30 PM
I think people have unrealistic expectations for first-round draft picks. I'm obviously over-generalizing, but typically, it seems like a third of them never make the Major Leagues, a third of them are role players or spare parts, and the last third get starting roles (and less than half of those become stars). If Drew Stubbs becomes a starting center fielder, the Reds made a good draft pick. I think having drafted Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce raised the bar too high.

dougdirt
08-24-2007, 02:36 PM
I think people have unrealistic expectations for first-round draft picks. I'm obviously over-generalizing, but typically, it seems like a third of them never make the Major Leagues, a third of them are role players or spare parts, and the last third get starting roles (and less than half of those become stars). If Drew Stubbs becomes a starting center fielder, the Reds made a good draft pick. I think having drafted Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce raised the bar too high.

I agree completely. Sure, it doesn't help that Lincecum is pitching great in the majors right now.... but in comparison, every pick sucks based off of Lincecum. We have Drew Stubbs and he is performing right now.

Blitz Dorsey
08-25-2007, 10:52 PM
Wake me up when Stubbs is playing (and hitting well) at a level where someone of his draft status/age should be playing.

In other words, color me not impressed about his "hot" streak in low-A ball. He should be at least in AA ball by now.

As for the Lincecum situation, the problem is that there were several Reds followers who felt he was an obvious choice. Then we pass on him to take Stubbs. Then the Giants take Lincecum right after that. We are not like other teams in that he was right there and we should have taken him. If you can't understand why Krivsky should take some criticism for that, I don't know what to tell you. We are going to regret that draft decision for a long time. Drew Stubbs is just not very good, is still in low-A ball, and Lincecum would already be the No. 3 pitcher on the Reds staff. That is a HUGE difference.

dougdirt
08-25-2007, 11:16 PM
Wake me up when Stubbs is playing (and hitting well) at a level where someone of his draft status/age should be playing.
So its his fault that he hasn't been promoted or that he started in Dayton?


In other words, color me not impressed about his "hot" streak in low-A ball. He should be at least in AA ball by now.

Well lets be honest, Drew has had 1 bad month in Dayton, and it was a really bad month. However outside of that 1 bad month, he has a .294/.393/.472 line for an OPS of .865. Its not a hot streak, he had 1 really bad month. Also, who are you to be suggesting where someone should or should not be? Is it a death stamp that he will never do something becuase he is 22 and in AA?


As for the Lincecum situation, the problem is that there were several Reds followers who felt he was an obvious choice. Then we pass on him to take Stubbs. Then the Giants take Lincecum right after that. We are not like other teams in that he was right there and we should have taken him. If you can't understand why Krivsky should take some criticism for that, I don't know what to tell you. We are going to regret that draft decision for a long time. Drew Stubbs is just not very good, is still in low-A ball, and Lincecum would already be the No. 3 pitcher on the Reds staff. That is a HUGE difference.
There is no Lincecum situation. Tim pitches for the San Francisco Giants. I could care 2 flying craps about who other people thought the Reds should have taken. I think we should have taken Billy Rowell. What does it matter? We didn't take either of them. We also didnt take Scott Kazmir, Jared Weaver or whoever else. It doesn't matter. Why do we have to have this conversation every month? Why focus on what we don't have when we can focus on what we do?

camisadelgolf
08-26-2007, 05:54 AM
You know who else the Reds passed on in the draft? More than 90% of Major League Baseball players. Some of those guys are way better than Tim Lincecum will ever be. Let's just cling to that fact for a while and talk about how badly the Reds make decisions since so much productive conversation can come from that?

The Reds didn't draft Lincecum. They didn't draft Mike Mussina. They didn't draft Derek Jeter. They didn't draft Barry Bonds. Get over it. Maybe when Stubbs is officially a bust (which has a good chance of never happening), you'll have a legitimate reason to complain about the pick, but until then, why not let things play out instead of acting like the sky has fallen when it hasn't even budged?

icehole3
08-26-2007, 08:13 AM
Wake me up when Stubbs is playing (and hitting well) at a level where someone of his draft status/age should be playing.

In other words, color me not impressed about his "hot" streak in low-A ball. He should be at least in AA ball by now.

As for the Lincecum situation, the problem is that there were several Reds followers who felt he was an obvious choice. Then we pass on him to take Stubbs. Then the Giants take Lincecum right after that. We are not like other teams in that he was right there and we should have taken him. If you can't understand why Krivsky should take some criticism for that, I don't know what to tell you. We are going to regret that draft decision for a long time. Drew Stubbs is just not very good, is still in low-A ball, and Lincecum would already be the No. 3 pitcher on the Reds staff. That is a HUGE difference.

I guess we can add Dorsey to the list, funny how there was no Dorsey in sight about a week ago when Stubbs was drilling everything thrown at him...very good Dorsey very good.

http://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Animations/44.gif

nate
08-26-2007, 09:22 AM
I guess we can add Dorsey to the list, funny how there was no Dorsey in sight about a week ago when Stubbs was drilling everything thrown at him...very good Dorsey very good.

http://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Animations/44.gif

He did say to wake him up.

Blitz Dorsey
08-26-2007, 12:48 PM
I guess we can add Dorsey to the list, funny how there was no Dorsey in sight about a week ago when Stubbs was drilling everything thrown at him...very good Dorsey very good.

http://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Animations/44.gif

Yep. Good call. I was avoiding this board at all costs because of the lukewarm streak that Stubbs is going through in low-A ball. The good thing is that others are convinced he "should" be promoted and he "would be" putting up similar numbers at high-A or AA. I will need to see it first.

It's time we make some side bets on when/if Stubbs will be a regular starter in the Majors. Talk is cheap. And I think we can all agree that if a former top 10 draft pick still isn't in the Majors by a certain date, he's probably a bust. And if he's never a full-time starter in the Bigs, he's probably a bust. And if he's still in low-A ball the year AFTER the draft, making him the only college player drafted in the top 10 in recent years to still be in low-A ball more than a full year after the draft (actually 14 going on 15 months), he's probably a bust.

Now back to killing the messenger! Commence.

Blitz Dorsey
08-26-2007, 12:56 PM
FYI, here are Stubbs' statistics this year. In other words, don't believe the hype!

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Drew%20Stubbs&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453211

Our boy Drew is rockin a .272 BA, 11 HRs, 38 RBI in 463 at-bats. Not good. Also, he has struck out 133 times, walked 63 and has an OPS of .784. He does have 22 stolen bases which is impressive, until you see that he has been caught stealing 15 times.

Did we mention that he's putting up these stellar numbers in low-A ball? A former college player should be putting up these mediocre numbers at least in AA ball by now. And it still wouldn't be impressive! But at least he would be playing at the level that corresponds with his draft status/age.

Don't let the facts get in the way of a good thread gentlemen!

dougdirt
08-26-2007, 01:24 PM
Blitz, maybe you skipped over my post where I showed that Drew, outside of 1 bad month, is hitting .294/.393/.472. As for RBI, the guy has hit leadoff almost all year until the last few weeks. No one piles up RBI in the leadoff spot.

Again though, don't let personal bias get in the way of seeing things. Lets also not forget that Drew Stubbs plays CF. Not 1B, 3B or a corner outfield position. He plays one of the lightest hitting positions on the field.

As for a bust.... If Drew Stubbs isn't in the majors by age 26, then he is a bust. Until then, I am not tossing in the towel completely unless he shows an inability to hit, which he has not done yet outside of one month.

We can have this arguement every day for the rest of Drew Stubbs career. I have no problem with that.

AmarilloRed
08-26-2007, 01:25 PM
He also suffered a foot injury that kept him out part of the year, and I am sure that had an effect on his play after he returned

camisadelgolf
08-26-2007, 03:20 PM
That's also not to mention that he's been a lead-off hitter for almost the entire year. If you want to bring RBIs into this, that's about as fair as saying he's 22 years old, but his body seems like a 19-year-old's, so let's treat him like he's a teenager.

Blitz Dorsey
08-26-2007, 07:58 PM
Hey, you guys are the ones talking about his RBIs. I just posted all of his stats and never said a word about his low RBI total.

Honestly, in addition to his hitting woes, the 15 times caught stealing concerns me. That indicates he's a good athlete with no clue how to run the bases. Yes, that can be taught to an extent, but he just doesn't seem to have good baseball instincts. 22 steals is impressive on the surface like I said, but if he's just running all the time with no thought of how to set up the pitcher, how to get a good jump, when to run, etc., it's really not impressive. 22/37 is not a very good percentage for a good base-stealer (59 percent) especially for low-A ball.

And for all you "he had a foot injury" excuse mongers, explain to me why the hell he was running so much? Lol. Again, let's not let personal bias get in the way. Let's just look at the facts.

BTW, I love the "Well, if you just take out his worst month his stats would look like this" excuse. Can you imagine what Todd Coffey's stats would look like the times he didn't choke? Can someone look that up? The facts are you can't do that in baseball. Overall, he is putting up average-at-best stats in low-A and I think he's on the fast train to bustville. I am not using any bias, just looking at the numbers. Not to mention the fact Stubbs is the only college player I can ever think of who was drafted in the top 10 and is still playing in low-A ball the following season.

dougdirt
08-26-2007, 10:29 PM
Hey, you guys are the ones talking about his RBIs. I just posted all of his stats and never said a word about his low RBI total.
Actually you listed his average and his RBI total 5 posts ago.



Honestly, in addition to his hitting woes, the 15 times caught stealing concerns me. That indicates he's a good athlete with no clue how to run the bases. Yes, that can be taught to an extent, but he just doesn't seem to have good baseball instincts. 22 steals is impressive on the surface like I said, but if he's just running all the time with no thought of how to set up the pitcher, how to get a good jump, when to run, etc., it's really not impressive. 22/37 is not a very good percentage for a good base-stealer (59 percent) especially for low-A ball.
Or that he has had a limp all season long. But lets not worry about that, he is probably just a real bad base runner.


And for all you "he had a foot injury" excuse mongers, explain to me why the hell he was running so much? Lol. Again, let's not let personal bias get in the way. Let's just look at the facts.
Im not his coach so I can't tell you.


BTW, I love the "Well, if you just take out his worst month his stats would look like this" excuse. Can you imagine what Todd Coffey's stats would look like the times he didn't choke? Can someone look that up? The facts are you can't do that in baseball. Overall, he is putting up average-at-best stats in low-A and I think he's on the fast train to bustville. I am not using any bias, just looking at the numbers. Not to mention the fact Stubbs is the only college player I can ever think of who was drafted in the top 10 and is still playing in low-A ball the following season.
There is a difference between sucking almost all the time and having 1 bad month. The fact is that Drew Stubbs has been very valuable to his team for the season. He gets on base at a very high rate and he plays great defense at one of the most important positions on the field.

I also could care less about where he is playing right now. He doesnt get to choose where he plays, the organization does. There is no need to rush him. You act like there is some set place that he must be at in order to ever be good or something.

Screwball
08-26-2007, 10:48 PM
Or that he has had a limp ass season long.

A limp ass, eh? Jeez, the guy just can't catch a break. ;)

dougdirt
08-26-2007, 10:49 PM
A limp ass, eh? Jeez, the guy just can't catch a break.

I dont know what you are talking about.... I didn't make a typo!

camisadelgolf
08-27-2007, 11:31 AM
The 15 caught stealings should be taken as further proof that he legitimately has a foot problem.

Blitz Dorsey
08-28-2007, 12:07 AM
Actually you listed his average and his RBI total 5 posts ago.

Do you have reading issues? I said I posted all of his stats (well, really I posted most of his stats -- BA, HR, RBI, AB, OPS, K, BB, SB, CS... sorry if that wasn't enough for you; plus a link to his full stats) it was others who were harping on his RBIs.

Blitz Dorsey
08-28-2007, 12:22 AM
But honestly, I think we've cleared a few things up here. I never bought the foot injury was serious enough to cause his poor production -- he wouldn't have 37 SB attempts if it was that serious. But I think there might be something to the aforementioned "limp ass" theory. He's just lucky it's not the more serious "limp (biskit)" variety.

Sorry DD, just messin with you. But you've got to admit that Stubbs isn't just behind schedule for a college player that was top 10 pick. He's WAY behind schedule. And get off the "it's not his fault that he's in low-A ball, he doesn't pick where he gets to play" argument. Players have a way of forcing the organization's hand if they do something crazy like play well. Ask Jay Bruce. Or Homer Bailey. And the only reason there haven't been any college players on the "fast track" is because a lot of our college draft picks have been or probably will be busts like Stubbs.

camisadelgolf
08-28-2007, 01:11 AM
I'll concede that he's behind schedule, but I won't agree about him being "way" behind schedule. If he ends 2008 with reasonable success in AA, I think he's perfectly on schedule. Even if he struggles in AA next year, I still wouldn't necessarily call him a bust.

dougdirt
08-28-2007, 01:22 AM
Sorry DD, just messin with you. But you've got to admit that Stubbs isn't just behind schedule for a college player that was top 10 pick. He's WAY behind schedule. And get off the "it's not his fault that he's in low-A ball, he doesn't pick where he gets to play" argument. Players have a way of forcing the organization's hand if they do something crazy like play well. Ask Jay Bruce. Or Homer Bailey. And the only reason there haven't been any college players on the "fast track" is because a lot of our college draft picks have been or probably will be busts like Stubbs.

I don't think he is that behind schedule. I figured he would end the season in Sarasota this year. I saw Drew Stubbs the day he was drafted a project with tons of upside.... but one who needed quite a bit of work. Lets be honest though, Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey are of a different ilk than most prospects. Comparing guys career paths to theirs is just silly. Ryan Howard, you know, that guy who won the MVP last year, he spent his entire 22 year old season in Low A too. He had an OPS of .836 that year, as a first baseman nonetheless. I would say he turned out just fine. I don't really care where the guy was drafted or not, I care about where he ends up and how he plays once he gets there. If it takes Drew Stubbs another 3 years to get to Cincinnati and then he can consistantly put up a .780 OPS and play gold glove defense in CF, then he was a great draft pick.