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The Snow Chief
08-19-2007, 04:29 PM
If we can re-up Dunn reasonably, then do so. But his impressive stats must be viewed in light of the large amount of singles that get turned into doubles due to his defense, singles to the right side where he does not make it to third base, and doubles where he does not score from first. Those need to be taken into account when deciding what to offer Dunn.

I've seen probably 75 Reds games this year and those instances are far too numerous for me to count.

muethibp
08-19-2007, 04:36 PM
Leaving aside your larger point, if you're referring to not scoring from second on that play, I don't understand why everyone thinks it's a given that he should have scored. It was a very hard hit ball.

The Snow Chief
08-19-2007, 04:38 PM
Leaving aside your larger point, if you're referring to not scoring from second on that play, I don't understand why everyone thinks it's a given that he should have scored. It was a very hard hit ball.

Not picking up the 3B coach and making it to 3B was the impetus for my post - that and dozens of similar things I have seen this season.

Jay Bruce
08-19-2007, 04:47 PM
While is it discouraging when Dunn these things, his bat still more than makes up for it. If we can get Dunn for 4-5 years at 15 million a year, we should jump at it, warts and all. There are no perfect baseball players, and I would rather have a player with Dunn's skillset over a player who consistently does the little things, but can't consistently get on base or hit for power (The Freel/ Hopper/ Podsednik type). Dunn does too much good for the Reds to harp on his deficiencies.

Doro
08-19-2007, 05:02 PM
He always has a lot of RBIs and a lot of Runs scored and that is the whole point of offense right?

The Snow Chief
08-19-2007, 05:03 PM
While is it discouraging when Dunn these things, his bat still more than makes up for it. If we can get Dunn for 4-5 years at 15 million a year, we should jump at it, warts and all. There are no perfect baseball players, and I would rather have a player with Dunn's skillset over a player who consistently does the little things, but can't consistently get on base or hit for power (The Freel/ Hopper/ Podsednik type). Dunn does too much good for the Reds to harp on his deficiencies.

Certainly you need some power and Freel, Hopper, etc. are not going to be starting outfielders on a contending ball club. However, my other concern with re-signing Dunn is the imbalance of lefties to righties at the power positions. If we re-sign Dunn long-term, then all starting OFs and the starting 1B project to be lefties (Hamilton, Bruce, Dunn, Votto). I think it will be a problem having to rely on 2B, SS, 3B, and catcher for your right handed power. Because they are so promising (and cheap), I would prefer not to trade Hamilton, Bruce, or Votto.

Thus, while I understand the arguments about re-signing him, if I were running the show, I might just pick up his option for next year (trading him mid-season if we are not contending or take the draft picks if we are contending). That way, in 2009, you can take the Jr. and Dunn money and buy a FA right handed OF with a little less power but more speed/defense and FA third starter.

In 2009, you have:

LF - RH FA
CF - Hamilton
RF - Bruce
1B - Votto
2B - Phillips
SS - Gonzo or Phillips (with Kepp. moving to 2B)
3B - EE or Kepp.
C - Ross, Valentin, or a reasonably priced FA

SP: Harang, Arroyo, FA, Bailey, Cueto
BP: Burton, Bray, Salmon, McBeth, Coutlangus, Livingson, Belise, etc.

The Snow Chief
08-19-2007, 05:04 PM
He always has a lot of RBIs and a lot of Runs scored and that is the whole point of offense right?

No doubt. The point is that he cannot be paid at a commensurate level with someone who has a similar number of runs scored, rbi, ops, etc. but who is faster and a better all around baseball player.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 05:11 PM
dont try to point these things out to Dunn lovers they much rather ignore them for.

Screwball
08-19-2007, 05:14 PM
No doubt. The point is that he cannot be paid at a commensurate level with someone who has a similar number of runs scored, rbi, ops, etc. but who is faster and a better all around baseball player.

And who is that player available for the Reds to pick up at ~$13 mill. next year? If there was a better option available (like the player you're referring to) for the same price then, yeah, sure, the Reds should pursue him and not Dunn. But as weak as the FA market is going to be this offseason (both position players AND pitchers), I just don't see any better alternative than paying Dunn his $3 mill. raise.


dont try to point these things out to Dunn lovers they much rather ignore them for.

Whatever, man. All the "Dunn lovers" (BTW, lame title to give to people who support Dunn) constantly acknowledge his faults. Many have stated (countless times) that he is not perfect. However, we also state he brings a lot to the table offensively, and ultimately is a key cog in the Reds' team. Thank goodness too, because otherwise this offense would be in a world of hurt.

Just because we don't constantly harp on him like you seem to want to do, doesn't mean we completely ignore faults in his game.

The Snow Chief
08-19-2007, 05:27 PM
[QUOTE=Screwball;1446152]And who is that player available for the Reds to pick up at ~$13 mill. next year? If there was a better option available (like the player you're referring to) for the same price then, yeah, sure, the Reds should pursue him and not Dunn. But as weak as the FA market is going to be this offseason (both position players AND pitchers), I just don't see any better alternative than paying Dunn his $3 mill. raise.
QUOTE]

I'm not saying don't pick up his $13M option. I'm saying possibly do not sign him to a long term deal for that kind of money. He is in the peak of his career. The weaknesses in athleticism will only get worse with age.

As you know, we don't have to replace him with one player. We could pick up a RH left fielder with less power but more speed and athleticism who is hitting 20-25 HR which would translate to 25-30 HR at GABP and he would help the team vis-a-vis Dunn with better speed and defense. We could get something like that for 7-8 million per year and use the rest to upgrade catcher or bullpen. I think that combination is arguably a better use of $15M per year than Dunn in his early 30's.

Then, with the Griffey money, you can go after a #2 or #3 starter.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 05:35 PM
Whatever, man. All the "Dunn lovers" (BTW, lame title to give to people who support Dunn) constantly acknowledge his faults. Many have stated (countless times) that he is not perfect. However, we also state he brings a lot to the table offensively, and ultimately is a key cog in the Reds' team. Thank goodness too, because otherwise this offense would be in a world of hurt.

Just because we don't constantly harp on him like you seem to want to do, doesn't mean we completely ignore faults in his game.

I say Dunn lovers go a little farther than just "supporting". Lovers say he isnt perfect but instantly come back with "well he hits 90 rbis so its ok"

Pointing out his faults then giving him a compliment isnt exactly acknowledging.

When I bash a player i dont say "he walks 5 guys but he throws 95". I dont just pick on Dunn either, when a player deserves credit ill give him credit when he screws up i wont say "oh well he will make up for it next time."

Screwball
08-19-2007, 05:37 PM
I'm not saying don't pick up his $13M option. I'm saying possibly do not sign him to a long term deal for that kind of money. He is in the peak of his career. The weaknesses in athleticism will only get worse with age.

As you know, we don't have to replace him with one player. We could pick up a RH left fielder with less power but more speed and athleticism who is hitting 20-25 HR which would translate to 25-30 HR at GABP and he would help the team vis-a-vis Dunn with better speed and defense. We could get something like that for 7-8 million per year and use the rest to upgrade catcher or bullpen. I think that combination is arguably a better use of $15M per year than Dunn in his early 30's.

Then, with the Griffey money, you can go after a #2 or #3 starter.


Fair enough. However, I think if Castellini continues to augment the payroll each year like he did this past one, we'll be able to afford Dunn AND the pitching this team so desperately needs. I just don't see a team being able to compete for a WS with a $70 million payroll. It may happen every once in a while, but to be competitive year in and year out like the Cardinals (and others), Castellini is going to need to open up his wallet so that we can afford to keep our productive players while acquiring others as well.


I say Dunn lovers go a little farther than just "supporting". Lovers say he isnt perfect but instantly come back with "well he hits 90 rbis so its ok"

Pointing out his faults then giving him a compliment isnt exactly acknowledging.


Yeah, ok. From now on we should all just dwell on the fault(s) of a player despite any other positives he might bring. That sounds like a good way to cheer for your favorite team/players.

And despite what you say, pointing out his faults - regardless of what may be said after that - is indeed acknowledging. And look no further than Jay Bruce's post earlier in this thread for a good example of that.

AmarilloRed
08-19-2007, 06:28 PM
Any free agent would cost more money than Dunn. A sound idea, but I would prefer to develop his successor from the minors. This is why I favor a short extension. Such an extension would give us time to develop a comparable outfielder.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 06:58 PM
And who is that player available for the Reds to pick up at ~$13 mill. next year? If there was a better option available (like the player you're referring to) for the same price then, yeah, sure, the Reds should pursue him and not Dunn. But as weak as the FA market is going to be this offseason (both position players AND pitchers), I just don't see any better alternative than paying Dunn his $3 mill. raise.



Whatever, man. All the "Dunn lovers" (BTW, lame title to give to people who support Dunn) constantly acknowledge his faults. Many have stated (countless times) that he is not perfect. However, we also state he brings a lot to the table offensively, and ultimately is a key cog in the Reds' team. Thank goodness too, because otherwise this offense would be in a world of hurt.

Just because we don't constantly harp on him like you seem to want to do, doesn't mean we completely ignore faults in his game.


Fair enough. However, I think if Castellini continues to augment the payroll each year like he did this past one, we'll be able to afford Dunn AND the pitching this team so desperately needs. I just don't see a team being able to compete for a WS with a $70 million payroll. It may happen every once in a while, but to be competitive year in and year out like the Cardinals (and others), Castellini is going to need to open up his wallet so that we can afford to keep our productive players while acquiring others as well.



Yeah, ok. From now on we should all just dwell on the fault(s) of a player despite any other positives he might bring. That sounds like a good way to cheer for your favorite team/players.

And despite what you say, pointing out his faults - regardless of what may be said after that - is indeed acknowledging. And look no further than Jay Bruce's post earlier in this thread for a good example of that.
"Adam Dunn strikes out a lot but its ok he has a good OBP."

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 06:59 PM
"Adam Dunn is a bad left fielder but he made an ok play once"

kyred14
08-19-2007, 08:03 PM
Of course you fail to point out Dunn actually came around to score, so it really didn't really matter, did it? Also, no one mentions he took 3rd on WP that got about 5 feet from the catcher. The Reds wouldn't scored Conine's flyball if he wasn't playing heads up. Not to mention the 2-run homer and other run he scored.

Without Dunn the Reds lose by 2 runs at least today. There's nothing wrong with critquing his game, but choosing to bash him on a day when he flat out carried the team to a win is borderline ridiculous.

texasdave
08-19-2007, 08:04 PM
However, my other concern with re-signing Dunn is the imbalance of lefties to righties at the power positions. If we re-sign Dunn long-term, then all starting OFs and the starting 1B project to be lefties (Hamilton, Bruce, Dunn, Votto).

I was thinking about this just the other day. It may be to a team's advantage to have a lineup loaded with left-handed batters. In 2006 NL right-handed pitchers faced about three times as many batters as NL left-handed. And since left-handed hitters hit right-handed pitchers better than right-handed hitters do, wouldn't that give a lineup loaded with lefties an advantage over the long haul?

This is how things shook out in 2006:



BATTER OBP SLG OPS
RH 0.326 0.419 0.745
LH 0.345 0.440 0.785


Left-handed hitters had an OPS 40 points higher than right-handed hitters. Is this because lefties can naturally hit better than righties? Probably not.

The Reds' hitting from the right side has been weak this season. And there is nothing wrong with trying to improve that. But I don't see any reason to trade away left-handed batters who can mash, simply because the Reds have too many of those.

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 08:09 PM
dont try to point these things out to Dunn lovers they much rather ignore them for.


I say Dunn lovers go a little farther than just "supporting". Lovers say he isnt perfect but instantly come back with "well he hits 90 rbis so its ok"

Pointing out his faults then giving him a compliment isnt exactly acknowledging.

When I bash a player i dont say "he walks 5 guys but he throws 95". I dont just pick on Dunn either, when a player deserves credit ill give him credit when he screws up i wont say "oh well he will make up for it next time."


"Adam Dunn strikes out a lot but its ok he has a good OBP."


"Adam Dunn is a bad left fielder but he made an ok play once"

Do you realize how annoying this is? It's not the man's fault the Reds haven't won during his time in Cincinnati. He does strike out too much but so does Ryan Howard. He's below average fielder. No one has said Dunn is perfect he is far from it but he is one of the best hitters on this team and he's helping it win as much as he can.

The Snow Chief
08-19-2007, 08:32 PM
Of course you fail to point out Dunn actually came around to score, so it really didn't really matter, did it? Also, no one mentions he took 3rd on WP that got about 5 feet from the catcher. The Reds wouldn't scored Conine's flyball if he wasn't playing heads up. Not to mention the 2-run homer and other run he scored.

Without Dunn the Reds lose by 2 runs at least today. There's nothing wrong with critquing his game, but choosing to bash him on a day when he flat out carried the team to a win is borderline ridiculous.

Good to hear from another Central Kentucky Reds fan. I grew up in Harrodsburg.

As for your post, I strongly disagree with your points.

1. I was referring to Dunn's previous miscues (the inning where Javy eventually doubled him in).

2. You cannot judge a good or bad baseball play based on the fact that a pitcher goes on to throw a wild pitch later or that Valentin hits him in anyway. You have to play the percentages - consistently not taking extra bases when you should ends up costing runs in the long term. It's kind of like saying an 8 earned run outing by a starting pitcher was okay because the other team scored 9. It's not because it is eventully going to bite you. You cannot count on teamates or the opposing pitcher to bail you out of bad play.

The last game I went to a week or two ago Dunn was on first and Keppinger hit a double to the right field wall. 98% of players score on that play. Mark Berry was waiving Dunn home. Dunn stopped at third. The pitcher got out of the inning.

What happens afterwards is irrelevant to the bad play. Don't make bad plays and you don't have to hope someone bails you out.

3. No doubt the Reds would have lost today without Dunn. My post was not a get rid of Dunn at all costs call. Rather, it is a response to people who simply post his HRs and OPS in comparison with other outfielders to support the argument that the Reds should give him a multi-year blockbuster deal. Any deal with Dunn should be discounted from the market value of a player with comparable offensive numbers and good or average defensive skills and base running. If Dunn wants that type of money without taking at least somewhat of a hit due to his deficiencies, then I think the smartest thing to do is let him walk after next season (or trade him if the Reds are not in contention).

SMcGavin
08-19-2007, 09:49 PM
I'm not saying don't pick up his $13M option. I'm saying possibly do not sign him to a long term deal for that kind of money. He is in the peak of his career. The weaknesses in athleticism will only get worse with age.

As you know, we don't have to replace him with one player. We could pick up a RH left fielder with less power but more speed and athleticism who is hitting 20-25 HR which would translate to 25-30 HR at GABP and he would help the team vis-a-vis Dunn with better speed and defense. We could get something like that for 7-8 million per year and use the rest to upgrade catcher or bullpen. I think that combination is arguably a better use of $15M per year than Dunn in his early 30's.

Then, with the Griffey money, you can go after a #2 or #3 starter.

I don't think the player you are describing (good contact/speed/defense with 30 HR power) exists for $7-8M. Your idea is sound, if we could do that I'd be all for it, I just don't think it is possible.

jmac
08-19-2007, 10:15 PM
I was just noticing Dunn has more RBI's than these "great" players:
Ortiz,Ramirez,Pujols.
I dont think Dunn will be a 280 hitter but his numbers this season stack up with about everyone except Arod and he definitely adds a presence to this lineup.

Screwball
08-19-2007, 10:28 PM
I was just noticing Dunn has more RBI's than these "great" players:
Ortiz,Ramirez,Pujols.


Now wait just one second. That can't be right. I distinctly remember being told that he's not a run producer. Take your facts elsewhere.

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 10:32 PM
Now wait just one second. That can't be right. I distinctly remember being told that he's not a run producer. Take your facts elsewhere.

How dare he say that here :D

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 10:32 PM
I was just noticing Dunn has more RBI's than these "great" players:
Ortiz,Ramirez,Pujols.
I dont think Dunn will be a 280 hitter but his numbers this season stack up with about everyone except Arod and he definitely adds a presence to this lineup.

And those guys are having their worst years this year and Dunn is having his best. I sure hope hes having a better year.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 10:34 PM
Do you realize how annoying this is? It's not the man's fault the Reds haven't won during his time in Cincinnati. He does strike out too much but so does Ryan Howard. He's below average fielder. No one has said Dunn is perfect he is far from it but he is one of the best hitters on this team and he's helping it win as much as he can.

Case and point, why cant you guys admit hes bad at something with out going out of your way to say hes a good hitter?

Also Ryan Howard is a far better hitter than Dunn ever hopes to be.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 10:35 PM
Now wait just one second. That can't be right. I distinctly remember being told that he's not a run producer. Take your facts elsewhere.

Its easier to hit 40 homers and not drive in 100 runs than he makes it out to be.

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 10:35 PM
Case and point, why cant you guys admit hes bad at something with out going out of your way to say hes a good hitter?
Also Ryan Howard is a far better hitter than Dunn ever hopes to be.

Because it's true he's a bad fielder and good hitter. He's not the only one in the history of the game to ever be like that.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 10:37 PM
Dunn does a lot of things right but when someone brings up the things he does wrong we just get labeled 'Dunn haters'.

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 10:40 PM
Dunn does a lot of things right but when someone brings up the things he does wrong we just get labeled 'Dunn haters'.

No, not everyone just the ones that are consistantly out for his head.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 10:40 PM
Because it's true he's a bad fielder and good hitter. He's not the only one in the history of the game to ever be like that.

Yes but Dunn lovers never point out the bad alone. Its always "Dunn is bad at making contact, but he hits it really far"

Its like saying "Ryan Freel isnt that great at hitting this year but once he gets on base hes a nuisance"

Can you guys not admit hes bad at something with out making sure you compliment him? I dont think the people that post positive thigns about Dunn need to point out his negatives in the same sentence.

boognish
08-19-2007, 10:41 PM
Now wait just one second. That can't be right. I distinctly remember being told that he's not a run producer. Take your facts elsewhere.

Well, Screwball, it is apparent the 468 Dunn sucks/Dunn does not suck threads did not get the point across. Let us make another so that the same argument can be rehashed again and again.

Also, in response to the original idea in the thread, play-by-play data shows that Dunn is far from the level of baserunner that can be characterized as one of the league's worst. http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5774 Furthermore, slow, plodding baserunners actually cost teams far fewer runs than the ill-advised practice of running into outs on the bases.

Maybe if he moved his limbs faster on the way to third, everyone would think Dunn is "doing the little things it takes to win" and this "debate" wouldn't come up every two days. Sometimes I think fans would rather one base be acquired in an "exciting" or "hustling" manner than two or four bases acquired via a "rally-killing" HR.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 10:41 PM
No, not everyone just the ones that are consistantly out for his head.

So saying something negative about a guy with big holes in his game makes me out for his head?

Screwball
08-19-2007, 10:42 PM
Case and point, why cant you guys admit hes bad at something with out going out of your way to say hes a good hitter?


It works both ways, pal. Why can't you admit he's good at something without going out of your way to say he's a bad player?

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 10:44 PM
It works both ways, pal. Why can't you admit he's good at something without going out of your way to say he's a bad player?

I admit what hes good at all the time. He has great power :dunno:

Is that good enough for you?

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 10:45 PM
Yes but Dunn lovers never point out the bad alone. Its always "Dunn is bad at making contact, but he hits it really far"

Its like saying "Ryan Freel isnt that great at hitting this year but once he gets on base hes a nuisance"

Can you guys not admit hes bad at something with out making sure you compliment him? I dont think the people that post positive thigns about Dunn need to point out his negatives in the same sentence.

Wow I didn't know it was so important to just look at the negatives. Okay here it goes, Dunn strikes out a ton, he plays below average defense, he hates puppies, he doesn't run out onto the field or off the field like he should, he looks like Will Ferrell, and I guess he's slow both physically and mentally.

Screwball
08-19-2007, 10:46 PM
I admit what hes good at all the time. He has great power


Whoa, whoa, whoa. Did Muggerd just say something positive about Adam Dunn?! I guess that explains the 4 horsemen riding around in my neighborhood.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 10:47 PM
Wow I didn't know it was so important to just look at the negatives. Okay here it goes, Dunn strikes out a ton, he plays below average defense, he hates puppies, he doesn't run out onto the field or off the field like he should, he looks like Will Ferrell, and I guess he's slow both physically and mentally.

It was a great start until you turned childish :dunno:

Like I said Dunn Lovers legitimately cannot say anything negative about Dunn because they just simply refuse too.

boognish
08-19-2007, 10:48 PM
Case and point, why cant you guys admit hes bad at something with out going out of your way to say hes a good hitter?

5044

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 10:50 PM
It was a great start until you turned childish :dunno:

Like I said Dunn Lovers legitimately cannot say anything negative about Dunn because they just simply refuse too.

I just did what you said. He strikes out too much and plays bad defense. Nuff said.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 10:50 PM
Woah, woah, woah. Did Muggerd just say something positive about Adam Dunn?! I guess that explains the 4 horsemen riding around in my neighborhood.

You want another one?

Hes has a good eye :dunno:

I can go on for a while but you dont see post of mine that are like this defending one thing with another completely opposite thing.

"yea he has a ton of power but has a noodle of an arm"

Normally when i post 2 things one negative one positive about Dunn they are on the same subject matter.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 10:52 PM
I just did what you said. He strikes out too much and plays bad defense. Nuff said.

You did what I said with enough sarcasm thrown in to make the point that you cant handle admitting his faults. You cannot sit there and defend his bad abilities like base running, bad arm, bad fielding with something that has nothing to do with the subject.

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 11:04 PM
You did what I said with enough sarcasm thrown in to make the point that you cant handle admitting his faults. You cannot sit there and defend his bad abilities like base running, bad arm, bad fielding with something that has nothing to do with the subject.

lol I just admitted some of his faults in the last post. Everyone on this team has faults but it seems Dunn is always the one that gets ragged on

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 11:09 PM
lol I just admitted some of his faults in the last post. Everyone on this team has faults but it seems Dunn is always the one that gets ragged on

Dunn is also the one of the biggest names and most tenured red on the team so its expected that hes going to have the most critics. Are we supposed to point out Hamiltons faults when he has a shorter track record? We at a point with Dunn where we dont expect him to get better. Thats why the opinions on Dunn are so concrete from person to person. Hes reached his peak where others are more likely to get passes because of the age and experience.

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 11:14 PM
And those guys are having their worst years this year and Dunn is having his best. I sure hope hes having a better year.


Dunn is also the one of the biggest names and most tenured red on the team so its expected that hes going to have the most critics. Are we supposed to point out Hamiltons faults when he has a shorter track record? We at a point with Dunn where we dont expect him to get better. Thats why the opinions on Dunn are so concrete from person to person. Hes reached his peak where others are more likely to get passes because of the age and experience.

The Snow Chief
08-19-2007, 11:15 PM
I don't think the player you are describing (good contact/speed/defense with 30 HR power) exists for $7-8M. Your idea is sound, if we could do that I'd be all for it, I just don't think it is possible.

I don't think it necessarily has to be good speed and defense - just mlb average speed and defense - which is a huge upgrade from Dunn in those areas. I think you can get a current 20-25 HR guy with average speed and defense for 7-8M per. GABP will likely turn that guy into a 30 HR producer.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-20-2007, 12:11 AM
Anyone watch rock of love with bret michaels.. his body guard big john looks straight up like the big loafer.. I now know why he hasnt been working out in the off season.. instead he is the body guard for a washed up celeb..

jmac
08-20-2007, 12:18 AM
And those guys are having their worst years this year and Dunn is having his best. I sure hope hes having a better year.

I said Dunn's numbers stacks up with everyone's but A-Rod.
So is everyone else having their worst year?
Dunn makes his share of mistakes,but if you watched the red sox, you would see Ortiz make baserunning blunders.Or STL, you would see Pujols make a bad throw. People that are reds fans see more of Dunn so therefore his blunders are what they focus on when in all actuality,he probably doesnt make that many more than anyone else.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-20-2007, 12:25 AM
I said Dunn's numbers stacks up with everyone's but A-Rod.
So is everyone else having their worst year?
Dunn makes his share of mistakes,but if you watched the red sox, you would see Ortiz make baserunning blunders.Or STL, you would see Pujols make a bad throw. People that are reds fans see more of Dunn so therefore his blunders are what they focus on when in all actuality,he probably doesnt make that many more than anyone else.

Not even worth responding to.. you're right.. Dunn has as many blunders as the best players in the league.. go put some gum to cover up a hole in hoover dam, if you really think that..

Screwball
08-20-2007, 12:37 AM
Not even worth responding to.. you're right.. Dunn has as many blunders as the best players in the league.. go put some gum to cover up a hole in hoover dam, if you really think that..

I think his point is that Dunn's blunders are magnified because we follow this team day in and day out. I can remember vividly baserunning errors by Griffey, Edwin, and Freel along with Dunn's, but I don't recall a single one of David Ortiz's, ALbert Pujols', or Alex Rodriguez's, although I'm pretty certain they've committed them.

Degenerate39
08-20-2007, 12:38 AM
I think his point is that Dunn's blunders are magnified because we follow this team day in and day out. I can remember vividly baserunning errors by Griffey, Edwin, and Freel along with Dunn's, but I don't recall a single one of David Ortiz's, ALbert Pujols', or Alex Rodriguez's, although I'm pretty certain they've committed them.

I know ARod's had them because the Yankee fans treat him like the scum of the earth when he does anything wrong

Screwball
08-20-2007, 12:41 AM
I know ARod's had them because the Yankee fans treat him like the scum of the earth when he does anything wrong

Ugh, Yankees fans. Another fan base that, by and large, continually bashes the guy who is arguably the team's best player.

kyred14
08-20-2007, 01:33 AM
Good to hear from another Central Kentucky Reds fan. I grew up in Harrodsburg.

As for your post, I strongly disagree with your points.

1. I was referring to Dunn's previous miscues (the inning where Javy eventually doubled him in).

2. You cannot judge a good or bad baseball play based on the fact that a pitcher goes on to throw a wild pitch later or that Valentin hits him in anyway. You have to play the percentages - consistently not taking extra bases when you should ends up costing runs in the long term. It's kind of like saying an 8 earned run outing by a starting pitcher was okay because the other team scored 9. It's not because it is eventully going to bite you. You cannot count on teamates or the opposing pitcher to bail you out of bad play.

The last game I went to a week or two ago Dunn was on first and Keppinger hit a double to the right field wall. 98% of players score on that play. Mark Berry was waiving Dunn home. Dunn stopped at third. The pitcher got out of the inning.

What happens afterwards is irrelevant to the bad play. Don't make bad plays and you don't have to hope someone bails you out.

3. No doubt the Reds would have lost today without Dunn. My post was not a get rid of Dunn at all costs call. Rather, it is a response to people who simply post his HRs and OPS in comparison with other outfielders to support the argument that the Reds should give him a multi-year blockbuster deal. Any deal with Dunn should be discounted from the market value of a player with comparable offensive numbers and good or average defensive skills and base running. If Dunn wants that type of money without taking at least somewhat of a hit due to his deficiencies, then I think the smartest thing to do is let him walk after next season (or trade him if the Reds are not in contention).

Well, I don't anyone will dispute that Dunn isn't the most fundamentally sound player out there. But, other than the occational gaffe, I think he's a pretty good baserunner.

On the market value point, I would look at Carlos Lee as a good comp for Dunn. They have pretty similar offensive numbers, and both aren't exactly graceful in LF. Lee got a 6-year, $100m deal this offseason. Dunn's value will be slighly less due to his K's and slightly less RBI's. I find Dunn even more attractive in in this case, because I find those stats highly overrated, anyway.

I guess it comes down to personal preference, I guess. I'd give Dunn a 4-year $55-60m deal in a second.

Jay Bruce
08-20-2007, 02:35 AM
I would agree that Dunn would be valued less than Lee, as his average is lower and he gets less RBI's. Dunn, however, is a superior player and more valuable commodity. While Lee has the higher career average by 40 points (.288 to .248), Dunn has an OBP of .378, compared to .341 by Lee. Additionally, Dunn has a career OPS of .896, while Lee's is only .840. When you take into consideration that Dunn is also 3 years younger than Lee, you can see that Dunn is the better bet for the future. That said, I would not give Dunn the contract that Lee was given, but if we can sign him for 4 years at 60 million, the Reds would be getting a bargain by comparison.

Muggerd
08-20-2007, 03:01 AM
Degenerate10

What did you quote me for?

Muggerd
08-20-2007, 03:06 AM
I said Dunn's numbers stacks up with everyone's but A-Rod.
So is everyone else having their worst year?
Dunn makes his share of mistakes,but if you watched the red sox, you would see Ortiz make baserunning blunders.Or STL, you would see Pujols make a bad throw. People that are reds fans see more of Dunn so therefore his blunders are what they focus on when in all actuality,he probably doesnt make that many more than anyone else.

Pujols is a gold glove 1st baseman...

Yes the 3 you listed are having bad years statistically for themselves.

Ortiz is a DH and an MVP perennial MVP candidate.

Dunn does make a large chunk of mistakes and no fan can deny it.

Muggerd
08-20-2007, 03:13 AM
Well, I don't anyone will dispute that Dunn isn't the most fundamentally sound player out there. But, other than the occational gaffe, I think he's a pretty good baserunner.

On the market value point, I would look at Carlos Lee as a good comp for Dunn. They have pretty similar offensive numbers, and both aren't exactly graceful in LF. Lee got a 6-year, $100m deal this offseason. Dunn's value will be slighly less due to his K's and slightly less RBI's. I find Dunn even more attractive in in this case, because I find those stats highly overrated, anyway.

I guess it comes down to personal preference, I guess. I'd give Dunn a 4-year $55-60m deal in a second.

Lee has 97 ribs, nothing similar about that compared to Dunn. Lee is also a better hitter in all the important situations.

How on earth can you find those stats overrated?

REDblooded
08-20-2007, 06:48 AM
I was just noticing Dunn has more RBI's than these "great" players:
Ortiz,Ramirez,Pujols.
I dont think Dunn will be a 280 hitter but his numbers this season stack up with about everyone except Arod and he definitely adds a presence to this lineup.



Without looking, I'm gonna guess Dunn's numbers (and I don't judge a player on numbers alone...............like most Dunn supporters try to get by with doing) don't stack up to....

Carlos Lee, Miggy Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez.

That's the list I came up with in the time it took me to tie my shoes before walking out the door to work.

jmac
08-20-2007, 11:00 AM
Without looking, I'm gonna guess Dunn's numbers (and I don't judge a player on numbers alone...............like most Dunn supporters try to get by with doing) don't stack up to....

Carlos Lee, Miggy Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez.

That's the list I came up with in the time it took me to tie my shoes before walking out the door to work.

It depends on what you call stack up.

Thru friday :
Holiday 21 hr 95 rbi
Lee 24-96
Cabrera 29-87
Hramirez 22-62
Dunn 33-81 (again,thru friday)

People are not saying Dunn has #'s better than all these guys but comparable.

Pujols 26-78
Ortiz 20-75
Vlad 18-96
Rios 20-66
MRamirez 19-80
Morneua 28-91
Konerko 23-67

some went up over weekend as Dunn's did also.

jmac
08-20-2007, 11:03 AM
I think his point is that Dunn's blunders are magnified because we follow this team day in and day out. I can remember vividly baserunning errors by Griffey, Edwin, and Freel along with Dunn's, but I don't recall a single one of David Ortiz's, ALbert Pujols', or Alex Rodriguez's, although I'm pretty certain they've committed them.

Thank you. You got my point :thumbup:

REDblooded
08-20-2007, 12:14 PM
It depends on what you call stack up.

Thru friday :
Holiday 21 hr 95 rbi
Lee 24-96
Cabrera 29-87
Hramirez 22-62
Dunn 33-81 (again,thru friday)

People are not saying Dunn has #'s better than all these guys but comparable.

Pujols 26-78
Ortiz 20-75
Vlad 18-96
Rios 20-66
MRamirez 19-80
Morneua 28-91
Konerko 23-67

some went up over weekend as Dunn's did also.

I really don't have the time, but by stacking up, I'm meaning more than just 2 stats that may help me win a 5x5 roto league. Though I'm not gonna lie, if that's really how many RBI's Dunn has this year, I'm pleasantly shocked.

jmac
08-20-2007, 12:41 PM
I really don't have the time, but by stacking up, I'm meaning more than just 2 stats that may help me win a 5x5 roto league. Though I'm not gonna lie, if that's really how many RBI's Dunn has this year, I'm pleasantly shocked.

Actually he has 83 now.
Look, I have not in the past been a big Dunn supporter or basher in the past.
However people have always said he doesnt produce and this season he is, so I am giving him credit. As far as other stats, I am sure on-base and slugging are right up there as well !

Muggerd
08-20-2007, 12:57 PM
Dunn has improved his contact making ability in the last couple weeks. Opposite field hits from a guy with as much power as him is a really nice thing.

Screwball
08-20-2007, 01:02 PM
As far as other stats, I am sure on-base and slugging are right up there as well !

Yep, he has the 2nd highest OPS on the team: .929. (Keppinger - .965, Griffey -.906, Hamilton - .922) When you're doing the most important things (getting on base, hitting for power) really well, not advancing from 1st to 3rd on a hard hit grounder to right is easier to swallow.

BLEEDS
08-20-2007, 02:23 PM
As you know, we don't have to replace him with one player. We could pick up a RH left fielder with less power but more speed and athleticism who is hitting 20-25 HR which would translate to 25-30 HR at GABP and he would help the team vis-a-vis Dunn with better speed and defense. We could get something like that for 7-8 million per year and use the rest to upgrade catcher or bullpen.

Please list your suggestions for FA RH LF-ers with 20-25 HR's who can be had for $7/8M ? I'd love to see this.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

REDblooded
08-20-2007, 04:37 PM
Please list your suggestions for FA RH LF-ers with 20-25 HR's who can be had for $7/8M ? I'd love to see this.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I flip-flop on this one constantly because I think he can still be a solid defensive third baseman, but EE is a right-handed bat with that kind of power potential who has the athleticism it would take to make the move to LF.......and it wouldn't cost the Reds a dime that they don't already have budgeted....................

Jay Bruce
08-20-2007, 04:55 PM
I flip-flop on this one constantly because I think he can still be a solid defensive third baseman, but EE is a right-handed bat with that kind of power potential who has the athleticism it would take to make the move to LF.......and it wouldn't cost the Reds a dime that they don't already have budgeted....................

If this situation were to occur, are you suggesting that Keppinger should be our starting 3rd baseman next year? If so, I cannot get behind this idea.

JLB5
08-20-2007, 04:59 PM
If this situation were to occur, are you suggesting that Keppinger should be our starting 3rd baseman next year? If so, I cannot get behind this idea.

I'd play Kepp in LF before Edwin. I was at the day game that he started in LF and I thought he did a great job out there. There would be no reason to move EE from 3rd in favor of Kepp unless you (REDblooded) think it would be less defensive pressure on EE and would improve his hitting. At any rate, I think it will be Dunn, Votto, or Bruce in LF so this conversation is moot.

REDblooded
08-20-2007, 07:15 PM
If this situation were to occur, are you suggesting that Keppinger should be our starting 3rd baseman next year? If so, I cannot get behind this idea.


I could see a platoon of Keppinger and Cantu working at third, with Cantu filling in more of a utility IF role, spelling Phillips and Votto/or Hatte at first.

REDblooded
08-20-2007, 07:16 PM
I'd play Kepp in LF before Edwin. I was at the day game that he started in LF and I thought he did a great job out there. There would be no reason to move EE from 3rd in favor of Kepp unless you (REDblooded) think it would be less defensive pressure on EE and would improve his hitting. At any rate, I think it will be Dunn, Votto, or Bruce in LF so this conversation is moot.

Yeah, I do think playing EE in left would lessen the pressure on him and allow him to focus more on his hitting, where he could become a 30/100 type with a bit more polish.

The Snow Chief
08-20-2007, 11:04 PM
Please list your suggestions for FA RH LF-ers with 20-25 HR's who can be had for $7/8M ? I'd love to see this.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Well, you are right that the FA market sucks. You will likely find guys wanting huge contracts (like Dunn) or garbage. But,

1. Would not have to be a FA. Could be part of a Dunn or Griffey deal next year (trade return) with arbitration years remaining.

2. Would not have to be a LF, just any OF. Could be any OF position and make a position change to LF (the easiest OF position to play).

Maybe 25 is on the high side for that kind of money but I am confident that an OF on the upswing (3-4 years of service time) and currently hitting say 18 HRs can get it to 25+ with gradual improvement and GABP. Hell, Alex Gonzalez is on pace to get over 20 HRs this year and he has been on and off the roster with the issue of his son. HRs are not the problem with the Reds.

Let's say the Reds save $7M on Dunn vis-a-vis his replacement and lose 15 HRs. 5 of those would probably be Reds losses anyway and another 5 Reds wins anyway. 15 home runs may be a difference maker in 5 games (i.e. change a loss without the HR to a win with the HR) and that is charitable.

Now suppose that we get 2-3 of those 5 lost games from Dunn back by improved speed, defense, etc. I don't think that is a stretch. Now, you are looking at another $7M to improve the bullpen or catchers spot. I think upgrades there will more than make up for 2-3 games deficiency caused by Dunn's absense.

Look, if we can lock Dunn up for a 4 year or less contract at $13M per I am all for it. However, I think he will ask for something like 5 years $75M (15M per). I would not invest that kind of money long term in Dunn, especially since his deficiencies (speed, agility, and defense) will magnify with age.

Would you support signing Dunn at $15M per for 5 years? I think that we will see one of the large metro teams offering that kind of money and I don't think the Reds should match it. For what he is paid now, Dunn is great. I just don't think he should be re-signed for what I feel he will ask.

BLEEDS
08-21-2007, 10:28 AM
Well, you are right that the FA market sucks. You will likely find guys wanting huge contracts (like Dunn) or garbage. But,

1. Would not have to be a FA. Could be part of a Dunn or Griffey deal next year (trade return) with arbitration years remaining.

2. Would not have to be a LF, just any OF. Could be any OF position and make a position change to LF (the easiest OF position to play).

Maybe 25 is on the high side for that kind of money but I am confident that an OF on the upswing (3-4 years of service time) and currently hitting say 18 HRs can get it to 25+ with gradual improvement and GABP.

Seems like a lot of typing to avoid the question...

SO, give me your options under #1 and #2. Of course this is like playing Madden MLB 2008 where you can just simply trade anybody at anytime - just like we did at the trade deadline this year. SO, I understand how EASY it is to pick up these 18 HR young guys for pennies on the dollar...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The Snow Chief
08-21-2007, 10:55 PM
Seems like a lot of typing to avoid the question...

SO, give me your options under #1 and #2. Of course this is like playing Madden MLB 2008 where you can just simply trade anybody at anytime - just like we did at the trade deadline this year. SO, I understand how EASY it is to pick up these 18 HR young guys for pennies on the dollar...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

1. There was another steller outfield play by Dunner tonight Bleeds. Look, I'd give Dunn a 4yr, 50M contract. I understand the value he brings. However, I have a feeling he will want money commensurate with those putting up similar offensive numbers. He does not deserve such money given his deficiencies. What I am saying is that I would not give him what I think he will seek (and may get from a large market team) - something like 5yrs, 75M. I don't think it is wise to allocate that much payroll to Dunn, especially since I don't think we are going to see a $100M - $110M payroll in the near future.

2. At what point would you let Dunn walk? Would you re-up him for 5yrs, 75M? If so/not, what would your cutoff be?

3. I am not going to go through each mlb roster and spend a couple hours going through stats and giving you a list of players. If you can trade for a outfielder hitting 18 home runs with less than 6 year service time, I have never heard of an arbitration award for more than $8M for such a player. I'll turn the question around to you since you seem to be advocating others comb through stats and give lists, show me a list of outfielders who hit 15-20 HRs last year (with 3-5 years of service time) who are making more than $8M from an arbitration award or one year contract signed to avoid arbitration.

4. I suggested trading Dunn for the replacement player. You then come back and say we would be offering "pennies on the dollar." I don't understand how Dunn can be so valuable in your mind and at the same time be not enough to bring back a 15-20 guy who is a couple years away from free agency. Sure he was not traded this summer, but that likely had more to do with Wayne asking a princely sum so as to not be accused of giving away players like he was with the great Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez.

5. I don't think I am being unrealistic in suggesting we could trade Dunn for an 18HR 3-5yr service time guy and pay that guy $8M. Even if I am, I would rather have some league minimum guy platoon with a cheap rent a vet (like Conine) to play LF along side Hamilton and Bruce in 2009 than commit to pay Dunn $15M for five years. We would have less than $3M in the LF position and an additional $12M to buy a catcher, starter, and/or some more bullpen help.

6. I am not worried about home run production. Our replacement players at positions at which we are old (RF and 1B) are both power guys. The Reds are going to get 50 HRs from their middle infield this year. Power is not the problem on this team and I don't think it will be over the next few years.

BLEEDS
08-21-2007, 11:36 PM
I didn't see the "stellar" defensive play you mentioned.

I did notice that he got a 2 out RBI to start a rally and take a lead, doubled and scored to get the lead back, got walked intentionally, and then singled with 2 outs with a guy on, had an OBP of .800 tonight, got 2 hits, an RBI and scored twice.

I know he's only responsible for over 20% of the entire "Runs Produced" on this team - Runs+RBI's-HR's - but I'm sure we can overcome that by improving one position (1B) and downgrading another - if it wasn't for the PLETHORA of FA OFer's who project to hit 30 HRS in GABP.

Dude, YOU were the one who made the statement that we can "easily" get a guy to hit 30 HR's in GABP for $7/8M. First you said FA, then you backed off and said we could trade for him. Again, not an EASY thing to do. YOU have to back-up your statements, not me. Otherwise, you can just admit that you pulled it out of your butt and you are wrong. Your choice.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 05:00 AM
10 year 200 million

Hes too much a part of our offense to get rid of

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 05:03 AM
Dunn has been cutting his swing down and taking the base hits lately and that is showing a bunch of promise that he is learning how to hit and not just swing 100% every time hes up. He still is due for a month long slump to end the season though.

Some might call that playing for a contract.

The Snow Chief
08-22-2007, 07:15 AM
I didn't see the "stellar" defensive play you mentioned.

I did notice that he got a 2 out RBI to start a rally and take a lead, doubled and scored to get the lead back, got walked intentionally, and then singled with 2 outs with a guy on, had an OBP of .800 tonight, got 2 hits, an RBI and scored twice.

I know he's only responsible for over 20% of the entire "Runs Produced" on this team - Runs+RBI's-HR's - but I'm sure we can overcome that by improving one position (1B) and downgrading another - if it wasn't for the PLETHORA of FA OFer's who project to hit 30 HRS in GABP.

Dude, YOU were the one who made the statement that we can "easily" get a guy to hit 30 HR's in GABP for $7/8M. First you said FA, then you backed off and said we could trade for him. Again, not an EASY thing to do. YOU have to back-up your statements, not me. Otherwise, you can just admit that you pulled it out of your butt and you are wrong. Your choice.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

He let a ball roll around in the corner, get past him, and allowed the batter to turn a double into a triple. Even Jim Day said after the game it should have been scored a double and an error on Dunn.

To the extent I said FA at 7-8M, that was a misstatement. I work 12 hours a day and post on here as a hobby so my posts can be rushed at times. I do, however, think we could trade Dunn for a younger 15-20 guy who could develop into a 25-30 guy at GABP without much difficulty. Look at the HRs Gonzo and Phillips have put up this year. I don' think that is a stretch. Do you think Dunn could bring that kind of return? I do.

As to the original premise of my thread, what is your opinion? I have not gotten it yet. Do you think Dunn merits a long term contract commensurate with others putting up his offensive numbers or do you think there should be some discount based on his defensive and base running liabilities? Are you in the 4yr, 50M camp like me or would you be in favor of signing a 5yr, 75M contract if needed?

redsfanmia
08-22-2007, 07:39 AM
10 year 200 million

Hes too much a part of our offense to get rid of

Do this and the Reds are doomed to lose for 10 more years.

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 08:45 AM
Do this and the Reds are doomed to lose for 10 more years.

truth.org

BLEEDS
08-22-2007, 11:02 AM
He let a ball roll around in the corner, get past him, and allowed the batter to turn a double into a triple. Even Jim Day said after the game it should have been scored a double and an error on Dunn.

To the extent I said FA at 7-8M, that was a misstatement. I work 12 hours a day and post on here as a hobby so my posts can be rushed at times. I do, however, think we could trade Dunn for a younger 15-20 guy who could develop into a 25-30 guy at GABP without much difficulty. Look at the HRs Gonzo and Phillips have put up this year. I don' think that is a stretch. Do you think Dunn could bring that kind of return? I do.

As to the original premise of my thread, what is your opinion? I have not gotten it yet. Do you think Dunn merits a long term contract commensurate with others putting up his offensive numbers or do you think there should be some discount based on his defensive and base running liabilities? Are you in the 4yr, 50M camp like me or would you be in favor of signing a 5yr, 75M contract if needed?

Okay, thanks for the retraction. I work about 11 hours a day, so the extra 1 hour is in my favor:beerme:

Yes, I would sign Dunn to a 5 year/$75M deal. If everybody didn't chastise him - including Marty - then he might be inclined to give us a "HomeTown" discount, but that's not going to happen. 5 years from now $15M per year will be considered a BARGAIN in MLB for a 40/100/100 ~.900 OPS guy. $13M already is a bargain for his Production in 2007/8 dollars.

I realize he is not a Gold Glove OF-er, but not many are that hit like him. You got to know what you're getting for the entire package.

Of course, I would also put him higher up in the lineup, and put some better guys behind him so they don't walk him as much. probably 4th. Once Griffy is out of here in 2009, I'd put him in the 3 hole and never look back. Surround him with a solid #2 hitter (we don't really have one that has a fulltime job (Keppinger)) and a Votto/Bruce behind him, and you'll see him getting less walks and more RBI's...

But that's just me.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 12:22 PM
Im tired of hearing this "hit like him" when talking about Dunn. The guy is not a great hitter. He has a ton of power and walks but when it comes to hitting hes far from a great hitter.

Screwball
08-22-2007, 02:06 PM
Im tired of hearing this "hit like him" when talking about Dunn. The guy is not a great hitter. He has a ton of power and walks but when it comes to hitting hes far from a great hitter.

You state this as though it's a fact. It's simply your opinion, and his .930 OPS disagrees with you.

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 02:09 PM
You state this as though it's a fact. It's simply your opinion, and his .930 OPS disagrees with you.

No his strike out rate, low BA, and situational hitting stats prove that his ability at the plate is very flawed.

Screwball
08-22-2007, 02:16 PM
No his strike out rate, low BA, and situational hitting stats prove that his ability at the plate is very flawed.

And yet, that "very flawed ability at the plate" gets him on base at a high rate and allows him to hit for monster power. I wish more Reds hitters were that flawed.

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 02:24 PM
And yet, that "very flawed ability at the plate" gets him on base at a high rate and allows him to hit for monster power. I wish more Reds hitters were that flawed.
What does his power have to do with his hitting ability? If he was such a great hitter he would bat higher for average and strike out less.

You think with that great eye of his he would be able to drop the strike outs down. He is a good batter, and brings a good AB most of the time to the plate but that doesn't designate him a great hitter.

Screwball
08-22-2007, 02:34 PM
I give up.

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 02:36 PM
I give up.

good because apparently you think Adam Dunn is a better hitter than Ichiro if you feel like basing this debate solely on OPS

Degenerate39
08-22-2007, 02:38 PM
I give up.

:lol: It happens to the best of us

BLEEDS
08-22-2007, 03:31 PM
Yes, his flawed hitting only accounts for over 20% of ALL OF THE RUNS PRODUCED BY THE TEAM (R+RBI-HR).

That's near the tops in the league. I know you and others feel you can just trade him for another guy who will make up for it, but it simply defies logic. You can't simply REPLACE that guy with a FA that doesn't exist, or a bench player who puts himself on the DL constantly because he "hustles" when he puts himself out of position and then has to use his great speed to dive to the turf for a ball the Average Fielder would have made look routine.
PEACE

-BLEEDS

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 03:40 PM
Yes, his flawed hitting only accounts for over 20% of ALL OF THE RUNS PRODUCED BY THE TEAM (R+RBI-HR).

That's near the tops in the league. I know you and others feel you can just trade him for another guy who will make up for it, but it simply defies logic. You can't simply REPLACE that guy with a FA that doesn't exist, or a bench player who puts himself on the DL constantly because he "hustles" when he puts himself out of position and then has to use his great speed to dive to the turf for a ball the Average Fielder would have made look routine.
PEACE

-BLEEDS

I think you are worried to much about signing you name to every post instead of actually reading the stuff you reply to.

So we are not going to say that Adam Dunn isnt a bad fielder because he doesnt have to dive for balls.

No where have I ever said we are going to replace Dunns offensive production with anyone through a trade or FA.

PEACE

-MUGGERDS

BLEEDS
08-22-2007, 04:04 PM
I think you are worried to much about signing you name to every post instead of actually reading the stuff you reply to.

So we are not going to say that Adam Dunn isnt a bad fielder because he doesnt have to dive for balls.

No where have I ever said we are going to replace Dunns offensive production with anyone through a trade or FA.

PEACE

-MUGGERDS

Hi Pot, this is Kettle...

You can't wait to jump on EVERY SINGLE thread to let everyone know you don't like Dunn.

You have said repeatedly that he is not worth the money for his production. We have been 'round and 'round on guys who make more/less with more/less production. We know your stance, get over it. You don't want to be replied to, don't jump in a conversation you weren't part of to begin with - this is kind of how this message board thing works.

As far as my signature, I've used it for over a decade on many other boards, and brought it with me here.

BLEEDS is because I BLEED for my team - Black & Gold (Steelers) and Red (Reds)

PEACE - to ensure no matter what I might say in my post, that at the end, it's all just conjecture, and nothing personal, and it's the last thing you read so it should be for your consideration as well. It's a psychological thing as well, so even if you're not smart enough to understand, your conscience will get it inadvertently.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 04:21 PM
I don't say Dunn isn't worth the money. Once again you just assume things I say and make it up as you go.

My post have been, Dunn has many holes that the yearly numbers don't show, and he is going to make too much money for the reds to keep with the current budget.

Now you feel like attacking me for jumping into a conversation I wasn't a part of to begin with? I think I was in this thread way before you chose to be a part of it.

Another thing while you say I cant wait to jump into a thread to say how much I hate Dunn, they same can be said for you saying that you cant wait to jump into every thread and say how much you love Dunn.

BLEEDS
08-22-2007, 04:53 PM
I don't say Dunn isn't worth the money. Once again you just assume things I say and make it up as you go.


http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1422911#post1422911
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muggerd
Alright guys its been a good night of argueing here. My whole arguement is comming down to money and what we get in return for his salary. I just dont feel like its as much as hes worth when you consider the other players in the league and the major flaws in this reds team.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1422902#post1422902
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muggerd
If you base Dunns yearly stats over the last few years with other players making as much money as him to be the big RBI we are getting completely ripped off.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1424303#post1424303
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muggerd
Id like you to find me a 3/4/5 hitter that isnt close to 100 runs/rbis a year. If Adam Dunn wasnt going to make 13million then 15 or what ever million after that then i wouldnt be so down on him, but for that type of money he needs to be as good as the players that make the same amount of money as him.


Hmm, sure sounds like you don't think he's worth his money.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 05:29 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1422911#post1422911
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muggerd
Alright guys its been a good night of argueing here. My whole arguement is comming down to money and what we get in return for his salary. I just dont feel like its as much as hes worth when you consider the other players in the league and the major flaws in this reds team.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1422902#post1422902
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muggerd
If you base Dunns yearly stats over the last few years with other players making as much money as him to be the big RBI we are getting completely ripped off.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1424303#post1424303
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muggerd
Id like you to find me a 3/4/5 hitter that isnt close to 100 runs/rbis a year. If Adam Dunn wasnt going to make 13million then 15 or what ever million after that then i wouldnt be so down on him, but for that type of money he needs to be as good as the players that make the same amount of money as him.


Hmm, sure sounds like you don't think he's worth his money.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

When you consider what other players are doing around the league and the holes on this team he isnt worth the money... Whats wrong with saying that?

If we are paying him to be the RBI guy then we are getting ripped off.

and the last comment was based on long term deals.

The problem is those players are not available on the FA market right now, and 13 million for 1 year is worth what he will give us.

Now skip through my post find the part you might have an argument with and pick it apart.

BLEEDS
08-22-2007, 05:34 PM
So, you admit you lied when you said, quote: "I don't say Dunn isn't worth the money. Once again you just assume things I say and make it up as you go."

Okay, I'm cool with that.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The Snow Chief
08-22-2007, 05:50 PM
I think Dunn is worth a very high salary. I just think the teams offering him a contract need to do more than look at his OPS, HRs, and RBIs. Those are great indicators of his offensive value but I don't think anyone will seriously argue that he is anywhere near average in fielding or base running vis-a-vis the average MLB outfielder.

If he is going to get paid much more than average based on his above average offensive performance, does it not stand to reason that he should also take a hit because of his fielding and base running shortcomings? Gold glove/speedy outfielders get larger contracts than their offensive numbers would otherwise garner because of what they bring to the table. Shouldn't it also be true that players with significant defensive and base running liabilities take a hit on their contract?

I just don't think that fielding and base running are given enough consideration by teams/fans in salary talks. It is partly because it is so difficult to qauntify by stats. Allowing a base runner to take an extra base is often not scored an error. Not getting to a ball because you have limited range is also not an error (see KGJ in center field the last few seasons, low error totals, terrible all-around defense). Not scoring from first on a double to the right field wall when 95% of major leagurers would have scored standing up also does not show up in the stat column. I have seen Dunn do all three of these within the past 10 games and several times this season. It can only be detected by watching the games, not the stat sheets. (With TIVO, I probably watch 120 games per year)

I'm not advocating a bunch of Ryan Freels. I think he is a terrible everyday OF option. I am just advocating being fiscally responsible by offering contracts reflecting a player's true worth after looking at the entire package - including defense and baserunning. Like it or not, the Reds are not going to take on the amount of payroll any time soon where they can afford to overpay very many people.

Screwball
08-22-2007, 05:58 PM
I think Dunn is worth a very high salary. I just think the teams offering him a contract need to do more than look at his OPS, HRs, and RBIs. Those are great indicators of his offensive value but I don't think anyone will seriously argue that he is anywhere near average in fielding or base running vis-a-vis the average MLB outfielder.

If he is going to get paid much more than average based on his above average offensive performance, does it not stand to reason that he should also take a hit because of his fielding and base running shortcomings? Gold glove/speedy outfielders get larger contracts than their offensive numbers would otherwise garner because of what they bring to the table. Shouldn't it also be true that players with significant defensive and base running liabilities take a hit on their contract?

I just don't think that fielding and base running are given enough consideration by teams/fans in salary talks. It is partly because it is so difficult to qauntify by stats. Allowing a base runner to take an extra base is often not scored an error. Not getting to a ball because you have limited range is also not an error (see KGJ in center field the last few seasons, low error totals, terrible all-around defense). Not scoring from first on a double to the right field wall when 95% of major leagurers would have scored standing up also does not show up in the stat column. I have seen Dunn do all three of these within the past 10 games and several times this season. It can only be detected by watching the games, not the stat sheets. (With TIVO, I probably watch 120 games per year)

I'm not advocating a bunch of Ryan Freels. I think he is a terrible everyday OF option. I am just advocating being fiscally responsible by offering contracts reflecting a player's true worth after looking at the entire package - including defense and baserunning. Like it or not, the Reds are not going to take on the amount of payroll any time soon where they can afford to overpay very many people.

Great post. I think those are very sound points.

Personally, I think you're right that Dunn should take a salary hit for defensive shortcomings, baserunning (in)ability, etc. But, slightly overpaying him for the immense production he brings to the plate is something I (and, IMHO, the Reds) can live with. As I've said previously, the only way the Reds are going to improve is with an increasing payroll, (unless all of our big prospects pan out perfectly, which is anything but guaranteed) paying the guys that produce, while still being able to afford to bring in outside help for the rotation, bullpen, or any other hole on this team. When you have a guy involved in something like 20-25% of the team's runs, you gotta pay him, even if it is a little bit more than he truly deserves. I liken it to the Cubs signing Ted Lilly - he probably didn't deserve as much $$ as he got, but the Cubs are a better team for paying it.

Muggerd
08-22-2007, 06:18 PM
So, you admit you lied when you said, quote: "I don't say Dunn isn't worth the money. Once again you just assume things I say and make it up as you go."

Okay, I'm cool with that.

PEACE

-BLEEDS
If you say so.

Heaven forbid there are contexts and multiple scenarios when talking about a player.

redsfanmia
08-22-2007, 07:31 PM
:deadhorse