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reds44
08-19-2007, 06:37 PM
Answers

Jeff Keppinger has to play somewhere everyday
Jared Burton is a great guy to have at the back of the pen, and maybe even closing.
Bill Bray is a great guy to have at the back of the pen, and maybe even closing.
David Weathers has another year in him, especially in middle relief.
Josh Hamilton and Norris Hopper are a great platoon parter in CF.
Adam Dunn needs to be re-signed long term.
Am I mssing anything?


Questions

How will Joey Votto do as an everyday 1st basemen?
When do Bruce, Cueto and Homer come up?
Does Pete McKanin come back?
Who are your 3,4,5 starters?
Can Brad Salmon, Jon Coutlangus, and Marcus McBeth fill spots in your bullpen?
Do you trade Alex Gonzalez?
Who do you go after in free agency?
Am I missing anything?
Can Javier Valentin catch vs. RHP?


How about this for an opening day lineup?
1. Josh Hamilton/Norris Hopper CF
2. Jeff Keppinger SS
3. Ken Griffey Jr. RF
4. Adam Dunn LF
5. Brandon Phillips 2B
6. Edwin Encarnacion 3B
7. Joey Votto 1B
8. Javier Valentin/David Ross C

Your thoughts.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 06:40 PM
How long term are we talking about here with dunn?

Jim Fazio
08-19-2007, 06:54 PM
I think EE will be traded to make room for Keppinger. Dunn better be back with a 5 yr deal worth 55M, I guess. I think Mckannin will get a 2 yr deal after the season. Hamilton will not platoon, he's the every day CF.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 06:57 PM
I wouldnt sign Dunn to anything more than a 3-4 year deal

Mutaman
08-19-2007, 07:05 PM
Hamilton will not platoon, he's the every day CF.

Not if he doesn't start learning how to hit lefthanded pitching he isn't. Plus did you ever notice how the Reds seem to score a lot of runs when Hopper's in the lineup. I know a lot of folks here are obsessed by power but I like speed and aggressivness. Hopper could do for us what Chone Figgins does for LA.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 07:09 PM
Not if he doesn't start learning how to hit lefthanded pitching he isn't. Plus did you ever notice how the Reds seem to score a lot of runs when Hopper's in the lineup. I know a lot of folks here are obsessed by power but I like speed and aggressivness. Hopper could do for us what Chone Figgins does for LA.

Chone Figgens walks

Mutaman
08-19-2007, 07:16 PM
Chone Figgens walks

Good point. But Hopper is still in his first year. I think he'll increase his OBP.

reds44
08-19-2007, 07:20 PM
Entering today

vs LHP:
Hamilton: .230/.319/.311
Hopper: .342/.373/.418

jmac
08-19-2007, 07:42 PM
I think weathers can be beneficial. Bring Burton on along and maybe work him into closing with Weathers pitching another year of 8th inning ball (unless someone else steps up)

Keppinger, myself I would try to deal AG and play Kepp at ss.
Work Votto in 08 at 1st and Hatt gives good bench strength.

I would try like crazy to sign Dunn at a good deal.
Hamilton hopefully can develope vs lefties.
Then after Jr contract runs out, you would be looking at Bruce,Dunn and JH in the OF.

jnwohio
08-19-2007, 08:06 PM
During the 2nd half of the 1998 season, those of us who took the time to keep on watching a team going no where realized a lot of pieces seemed to be falling into place. I think the same sort of thing is happening right now.

There are moves to be made but I hope the position players are kept entact, except that they need to do something at catcher. I am not sure they can live with Javy's defense every day for a season but I am even more certain they can't afford Ross's lack of offense just to have his defense in the line up.

Otherwise, they need an established middle of the rotation guy with the likes of Bailey, Livingston, Ramirez, Dumatrrait, and Cueto the candidates to fill it out.

In the pen they need one additonal guy with experience. A closer would be nice; then Stormy could go back to his 7th inning role with Burton in the 8th and Bray to fill the cracks. But if they can just get a good set up guy that should suffice.

Would these moves make them a power house? No. But they would make the Reds Central division contenders next year. You have to walk before you can run; and that is the step they need to take instead of blowing everything up for some shot at something 2 or 3 years down trhe line.

Chi-Town Red
08-19-2007, 08:11 PM
Dunn 3 yr...42-45 mill

reds44
08-19-2007, 08:25 PM
Dunn 3 yr...42-45 mill
3 years?

4 years, 55 mil.

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 08:26 PM
Dunn 3 yr...42-45 mill

Agree with that

Chris Sabowned
08-19-2007, 08:44 PM
Going into 2008 this is what the team should look like...

1) Hamilton CF
2) Keppinger SS
3) Griffey RF
4) Phillips 2B
5) Dunn LF
6) Votto 1B
7) Edwin 3B
8) Ross C

SP
1) Harang
2) Arroyo
3) Free Agent
4) Bailey
5) Livingston

RP
Free Agent CL
Burton SU
Bray MR
Weathers MR
Coutlangous MR
Salmon MR
Gosling LR

Bench
Valentin
Hopper
Cantu
Lopez
Ellison

Any other suggestions?

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 08:58 PM
Going into 2008 this is what the team should look like...

1) Hamilton CF
2) Keppinger SS
3) Griffey RF
4) Phillips 2B
5) Dunn LF
6) Votto 1B
7) Edwin 3B
8) Ross C

SP
1) Harang
2) Arroyo
3) Free Agent
4) Bailey
5) Livingston

RP
Free Agent CL
Burton SU
Bray MR
Weathers MR
Coutlangous MR
Salmon MR
Gosling LR

Bench
Valentin
Hopper
Cantu
Lopez
Ellison
Any other suggestions?

What would you do with Gonzo?

What free agent would you pick up?

Please God no more Ellison

Chris Sabowned
08-19-2007, 09:12 PM
Gonzo just doesn't impress me, he's still relatively young though so maybe we could get something/anything in return for him. And I kinda agree about Ellison, but anyone else we get for our 5th OF isn't gonna be much better.

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 09:17 PM
Gonzo just doesn't impress me, he's still relatively young though so maybe we could get something/anything in return for him. And I kinda agree about Ellison, but anyone else we get for our 5th OF isn't gonna be much better.

They'll have Freel back next season so Hopper is the 5th OF and they won't need Ellison (hopefully anyway).

AmarilloRed
08-19-2007, 09:52 PM
I doubt we will be unable to trade Gonzalez because of his age and contract. It might be best to put him on the bench until his contract expires. Bray, Burton or Weathers will be fine as our closer. The others can be set-up men. This will be Ellison's last year, and Freel or Dickerson can be back-up outfielders.

Degenerate39
08-19-2007, 09:55 PM
I think Gonzo's had an off year in the field because of his son Johan. It's got to be stressful on him.

fadetoblack2880
08-19-2007, 10:31 PM
I think making Keppinger an everyday player because he's hit well in limited time is a mistake. Gonzalez has been around a few years now and the fact that his son isn't doing well has to play into it.

SMcGavin
08-19-2007, 10:43 PM
Entering today

vs LHP:
Hamilton: .230/.319/.311
Hopper: .342/.373/.418

In 61 ABs for Hamilton and 79 ABs for Hopper. Small sample size anyone? No way I'm writing Josh off as a platoon player when he has faced lefties 61 times in his career, especially so a guy like Hopper can play instead (no offense to Hopper who is a serviceable backup OF).

Also the big question for me is how is Keppinger's defense at SS? I think his bat will cool to the point where it's a only average at 3B, but very good for a SS.

I do agree about the Dunn extension though!

Maldez
08-19-2007, 11:56 PM
Am I mssing anything?

Yes. Let's sign Pete Mackanin to a two-year deal and find out what kind of manager he really is. I hated the way the Reds looked and played under Narron, but Mackanin has breathed life into this team at a time when it would have been easy to just pack it in and wait for next year.

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 11:57 PM
Yes. Let's sign Pete Mackanin to a two-year deal and find out what kind of manager he really is. I hated the way the Reds looked and played under Narron, but Mackanin has breathed life into this team at a time when it would have been easy to just pack it in and wait for next year.

They did the same thing for Narron

Muggerd
08-19-2007, 11:59 PM
Dunn 3 yr...42-45 mill

If you can get a 27 year old to agree to that contract then great sign him up.

I really doubt he signs anything less than a 6 year deal.

kaldaniels
08-20-2007, 12:02 AM
They did the same thing for Narron

I agree and I've said this from Pete's hiring...after the year, the front office has to go out, do their due diligence, and determine the best guy for the job. If it is Pete, so be it...but the results of the last half of 07 should be minimally taken into account...it's one thing to be sucessful from opening day on...its another to have sucess in a pressureless intermin role assuming command of the worst team in the league. But...if they weigh all options and figure Pete is the best guy...I can't fault them.

Muggerd
08-20-2007, 12:06 AM
I agree and I've said this from Pete's hiring...after the year, the front office has to go out, do their due diligence, and determine the best guy for the job. If it is Pete, so be it...but the results of the last half of 07 should be minimally taken into account...it's one thing to be sucessful from opening day on...its another to have sucess in a pressureless intermin role assuming command of the worst team in the league. But...if they weigh all options and figure Pete is the best guy...I can't fault them.year.

Yea if Pete ends up being the best guy for the job I wont have a problem with it either.

The main thing is this team is playing like the team we expected all season. Pete has them playing better but Narron also had them playing awful. I would tend to think its more Narron being awful than Pete being good.

Either way if Pete is the guy at the end of the season then great.

AmarilloRed
08-20-2007, 12:36 AM
I think making Keppinger an everyday player because he's hit well in limited time is a mistake. Gonzalez has been around a few years now and the fact that his son isn't doing well has to play into it.

There are a lot of people who agree with you. However he hit about .360 in about 200 Ab at Louisville and he is hitting .368 in 106 AB in Cincinnati .He is simply having an outstanding year. The question is if he can hit like this consistantly. I remember when Ross hit like this last year, and then fell off this year. However, Jeff Keppinger is just starting out his major league career, and I would expect him to be a .300 hitter down the line. If he is hitting .350 at the end of the year,the Reds will have a tough choice to make.

mroby85
08-20-2007, 12:40 AM
you guys are way too easy to get along with, you have no free agent action involved, and you have them bringin back mackanin. i really hope thats not the case, or it's gonna be another long season.

AmarilloRed
08-20-2007, 12:45 AM
I believe most of us agree the Reds need to pick up a free agent starting pitcher. I don't want to assume anything, however. We are somewhat split on whether we need a free agent closer.

Boston Red
08-20-2007, 12:48 AM
Keppinger's numbers are Pete Rose like. I think I'd play him everyday until he shows me he's not Pete Rose.

Screwball
08-20-2007, 01:09 AM
and you have them bringin back mackanin.

Not me. Most of the things I've read make it sound like a combination of Jocketty and LaRussa taking over next year is a distinct possibility.

AdamDunn
08-20-2007, 04:14 AM
How about Adam Dunn to no money, no years, and two compensation picks?

Weird that I say this because he is my favorite player.

ChatterRed
08-20-2007, 09:51 AM
Answers

Jeff Keppinger has to play somewhere everyday
Jared Burton is a great guy to have at the back of the pen, and maybe even closing.
Bill Bray is a great guy to have at the back of the pen, and maybe even closing.
David Weathers has another year in him, especially in middle relief.
Josh Hamilton and Norris Hopper are a great platoon parter in CF.
Adam Dunn needs to be re-signed long term.
Am I mssing anything?


Questions

How will Joey Votto do as an everyday 1st basemen?
When do Bruce, Cueto and Homer come up?
Does Pete McKanin come back?
Who are your 3,4,5 starters?
Can Brad Salmon, Jon Coutlangus, and Marcus McBeth fill spots in your bullpen?
Do you trade Alex Gonzalez?
Who do you go after in free agency?
Am I missing anything?
Can Javier Valentin catch vs. RHP?


How about this for an opening day lineup?
1. Josh Hamilton/Norris Hopper CF
2. Jeff Keppinger SS
3. Ken Griffey Jr. RF
4. Adam Dunn LF
5. Brandon Phillips 2B
6. Edwin Encarnacion 3B
7. Joey Votto 1B
8. Javier Valentin/David Ross C

Your thoughts.

Good thread-starting post.

I need to see Votto in September to see if he's going to contribute or if he's the next Denorfia. If Votto is a bust. Then I might sign Dunn longterm contingent on him moving to 1B. I know he's said he won't move to 1B, but that's how I'd play it, if Votto shows nothing in September. Personally, I think Votto should come up now and have 5-6 weeks to show us something.

If Votto shows something, I guess I'd take a chance on not re-signing Dunn and take the compensation picks. You can't have two liabilities in the OF with Dunn and Griffey. I'm not sure how much longer the Reds are obligated to Junior.......1 more year? Two more years? I'm glad to see Junior having a solid year, but his age is really showing. He needs to go to the AL and DH.

Priority should be signing a #3 starter (or #2, however you want to put it).......but we need Harang, Arroyo, and quality Free agent for this team to go somewhere. I'm not sold on Bailey, but alot of people on here are. So I guess you stick Homer at #4 and possibly Livingston at #5.

We need a solid closer (free agent). I can handle the rest of the guys you listed. I think the bullpen is getting better. Most of the bad outings lately are from guys that have struggled and the Reds are testing - like Majewski and Guardado. Burton has been a solid find. Weathers has had a decent year. Bray has pitched better since coming back up. I think the rest of the season is a journey to find our bullpen for next year.

Anyway, good post.

JLB5
08-20-2007, 11:25 AM
I believe most of us agree the Reds need to pick up a free agent starting pitcher. I don't want to assume anything, however. We are somewhat split on whether we need a free agent closer.

They don't need to waste money on a free agent closer. Weathers has proven he can get the job done. Burton and Bray will get the rest of this year to prove they are capable of handling late inning pressure and one of them could slide into that role in the future (if Weathers is traded or moved back to middle relief). As bad as the bullpen was earlier in the year, it is not that bad with Weathers, Burton, and Bray at the back end.

eastkyred
08-20-2007, 12:07 PM
They don't need to waste money on a free agent closer. Weathers has proven he can get the job done. Burton and Bray will get the rest of this year to prove they are capable of handling late inning pressure and one of them could slide into that role in the future (if Weathers is traded or moved back to middle relief). As bad as the bullpen was earlier in the year, it is not that bad with Weathers, Burton, and Bray at the back end.

I agree that the back end of the bullpen seems to be shaping up pretty well. I also think with McBeth and Cout that the bullpen can be pretty good 5 deep.

HokieRed
08-20-2007, 12:39 PM
I don't see Dunn signing for any less than 6 for 90 million, and I don't see the Reds doing that. I think the plan might be something like this: Outfield: Votto, LF; Hamilton, CF; Griffey RF, with Hopper and Freel as backups unless we can move one of them, then Dickerson will move into the mix. When Bruce is ready, he goes to right, Hamilton/Hopper or Freel stays in CF, Junior moves to left. 1B is Hatteberg/Cantu until we see if Votto can actually hit; then Votto can go to 1b along with Cantu or possibly Rosales. (Don't overlook Rosales; this kid has very close to 50% of his hits for extra bases) Phillips at 2b, Gonzo at SS, EE at 3d, Kepp getting time at SS and 3b. There's no need for a quick decision there unless a trade comes up for EE that's just too good to pass up. Keppinger is a lot more valuable as a SS than as a 3B--that is, if he can really play SS. Who's catching probably depends on the manager--if it's Pete, Valentin will still be around, perhaps platooning with Ross but maybe with somebody like Miguel Perez. If it's not Pete, we might get Ross-Valentin or maybe Ross-Perez.

jmac
08-20-2007, 12:47 PM
I think Gonzo's had an off year in the field because of his son Johan. It's got to be stressful on him.

This is true. However I dont think Alex is worth 5 Mil a year, Though GABP will elevate is #'s.

UK Reds Fan
08-20-2007, 12:53 PM
1. I'd try to package Freel and or Belisle as salary dumps. Doubtful it would be successful.
2. I'd never pick up Guardado's option.
3. I'd try to move Gonzo if I could and plug in Kepp/Lopez for as long as possible.
4. I'd hold off on anymore BP acquisitions (especially closer) and go with what we've got which is a solid combination of production and potential from Left and Right side. Burton, Weathers, Salmon, McBeth from the right side and Bray, Couter and Stanton (has to stay with $$ apparently) from the left side.
5. DFA Belisle...not worth $1.2 Million that he could command next year (or try to trade..but doubtful you'll find a taker)
6. Save as much extra cash from purging roster to get a much needed 3/4 starter.

There really is no shot at having any kind of 2008 with Harang, an up/down Arroyo (The Boston Arroyo is more likely than year's Arroyo), Bailey (who knows if he can give a sub 5 ERA), Belisle (I've seen enough to know he ain't a starter), Livingston (decent 5th starter but nothing else) or Lizard (who knows if he can last a year), Dumtrait (is Miltonesque...no future at starter). If we can plug another Lohse type guy into the middle (at 5 to 6 Million) and hope Livingston, Bailey, Lizard can round out the back 2 spots there is atleast a puncher's chance of competing. Then you always have Cueto or Maloney that could step in by all star break if guys falter for 1/2 of season. But all is nill if we can't pitch better from the starting rotation...and nobody is progressing as a starter for the Reds.

So SS, backup OF, BP, etc..are all moot until we start the game better from the pitching standpoint.

Prf15
08-20-2007, 01:03 PM
Why have Hamilton platoon? So he sits on the bench against lefties and can't figure them out? Remember, he went from A ball up to the majors, even then that was like 15 games in A. Josh is just amazing and will be the superstar of this team in a couple years.

Why are some people wanting Pedro Lopez on this team? I know the games he played, he was a good defensive shortstop but no bat, I thought we had Juan Castro for that job.:ughmamoru

JLB5
08-20-2007, 01:36 PM
5. DFA Belisle...not worth $1.2 Million that he could command next year (or try to trade..but doubtful you'll find a taker).

1.2 Million is not very much $$. If Belisle can't get it together as a starter, he almost certainly could be effective out of the pen. I don't see any reason to give him away. There is not going to be much pitching available on the market this offseason, so I'd be very reluctant to give up anyone who has potential.

UK Reds Fan
08-20-2007, 01:42 PM
1.2 Million is not very much $$. If Belisle can't get it together as a starter, he almost certainly could be effective out of the pen. I don't see any reason to give him away. There is not going to be much pitching available on the market this offseason, so I'd be very reluctant to give up anyone who has potential.

Is an ERA a good bit over 5 as a starter much potential? I'd like to think Lizard, Livingston and Bailey can all match or outperform Belisle by a good margin as starters next year given the opportunity Belisle has been given.

As far as the pen, do you think Belisle will outperform anyone from the right side next year? Weathers and Burton are almost a lock to be better. McBeth and Salmon can make a case as well. All of those guys (excpetion of Weathers) will make substantially less $$$ than Belisle. Coffey is the real competition of who can outperfom the other and Coffey is sitting on guaranteed money...I'd just cut Belisle and save 1.2 million towards a starting pitcher than be get the job done.

I'd love to package him for a trade, but I don't see anyone biting on it. But in the end, Belisle has not lived up to much at Cincy and this year was his big shot and he simply has flunked out after 2-3 years of sporadic opportunities.

Muggerd
08-20-2007, 02:06 PM
Matt has been prone to homers too much as it is right now to be a solid starter. I think anytime you hear the game or watch the game no one can doubt his ability. Its the awful mistakes he makes and seems to not learn from them.

kaldaniels
08-20-2007, 03:01 PM
Is an ERA a good bit over 5 as a starter much potential? I'd like to think Lizard, Livingston and Bailey can all match or outperform Belisle by a good margin as starters next year given the opportunity Belisle has been given.

As far as the pen, do you think Belisle will outperform anyone from the right side next year? Weathers and Burton are almost a lock to be better. McBeth and Salmon can make a case as well. All of those guys (excpetion of Weathers) will make substantially less $$$ than Belisle. Coffey is the real competition of who can outperfom the other and Coffey is sitting on guaranteed money...I'd just cut Belisle and save 1.2 million towards a starting pitcher than be get the job done.

I'd love to package him for a trade, but I don't see anyone biting on it. But in the end, Belisle has not lived up to much at Cincy and this year was his big shot and he simply has flunked out after 2-3 years of sporadic opportunities.


I agree with you on many points. I will say at the beginning of this season I had Belisle pegged to be a decent starter given the chance and if he avoided injuries. I was wrong. His stats look servicable to some (not to me) to be a #5. Here's my problem with him...and this just an observation having seen most of his games, with no numbers to back me up (correct me if I'm mistaken). After midway through the year (really from May on) he never seemed to just go out, be dealing, and dominate a game. Is that too much to ask every now and then, even your #5? He started the season very well, so I don't know if it is just he isn't a pitcher that is built to go out and throw every 5th day. It seems the prevailing opinion is he's built for long relief...and I'd agree with that. I also wholeheartedly agree with your last statement...this was his chance to be a starter, and he's flunked. Not to say he can't be sucessful out of the pen.

eastkyred
08-20-2007, 03:06 PM
As far as the pen, do you think Belisle will outperform anyone from the right side next year? Weathers and Burton are almost a lock to be better.

I'd rather see Belisle in long relief than Gosling, as someone else mentioned. I'm not a huge Belisle fan, but I think he did show some promise this year. Remember, this was his first full season as a starter in the big leagues. Look around the league at ERA's for other teams fifth starter:

Capuano - 5.33
Reyes - 5.61
Jennings - 6.16
Armas - 6.58
Marquis - 4.25
Belisle - 5.40

I'm not saying its ok to have a 5.4 era, I'm just saying he has been par for the course for a #5 starter. He actually regressed as the year went on, maybe because he was throwing more innings than he ever has. At the end of May, after 11 starts, his ERA was 4.26 and everyone was pretty happy with him. Belisle has shown the potential to be able to help this team. You can't just throw him away. He's 27 yrs old. Look at Aaron Harang's numbers when he was 26 years old. They were a little better than Belisle, but not much.

BLEEDS
08-20-2007, 03:16 PM
I doubt we will be unable to trade Gonzalez because of his age and contract. It might be best to put him on the bench until his contract expires.

You aren't serious are you?

As long as he's healthy, he'll be the starting SS. He's got good pop in his bat, his average fluctuates quite a bit though but overall he's WAY better than anything else we've got.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

ThirdBaseCoach
08-20-2007, 03:24 PM
Not me. Most of the things I've read make it sound like a combination of Jocketty and LaRussa taking over next year is a distinct possibility.

That is not a possibility, distinct or otherwise. It's time to drop that rumor.

UK Reds Fan
08-20-2007, 03:33 PM
To compare Belisle to Gosling isn't a valid comparison. Gosling will make $340 k, Belisle will make 1.2 Million. Furthermore, Belisle will be no best than #3 righty of the of pen (behind Weathers and Burton...probably about the same as McBeth and Salmon) and #5 overall (behind Weathers, Burton, Bray and Couter).

Wouldn't it be smarter to let Belisle walk for 1.2 Million in hope of investing in a one year contract with other money for about 4 to 5 Million on a one year contract for another starter that can give us more than Belisle's over 5 ERA next year?

If a case could be made for Belisle to actually improve the next few years, sure I'd keep with him. But this is Matt's 3rd pitching in majors and he has not reallly improved at all looking at his numbers. I can't say the same for Harang in his first 3 years. You must show some improvement to justify potential.

kaldaniels
08-20-2007, 03:44 PM
I'd rather see Belisle in long relief than Gosling, as someone else mentioned. I'm not a huge Belisle fan, but I think he did show some promise this year. Remember, this was his first full season as a starter in the big leagues. Look around the league at ERA's for other teams fifth starter:

Capuano - 5.33
Reyes - 5.61
Jennings - 6.16
Armas - 6.58
Marquis - 4.25
Belisle - 5.40

I'm not saying its ok to have a 5.4 era, I'm just saying he has been par for the course for a #5 starter. He actually regressed as the year went on, maybe because he was throwing more innings than he ever has. At the end of May, after 11 starts, his ERA was 4.26 and everyone was pretty happy with him. Belisle has shown the potential to be able to help this team. You can't just throw him away. He's 27 yrs old. Look at Aaron Harang's numbers when he was 26 years old. They were a little better than Belisle, but not much.

As I said I don't think he's built to be a starter for the long haul...just check out his 6+ ERA since June...horrible.

BLEEDS
08-20-2007, 03:51 PM
How about this for an opening day lineup?
1. Josh Hamilton/Norris Hopper CF
2. Jeff Keppinger SS
3. Ken Griffey Jr. RF
4. Adam Dunn LF
5. Brandon Phillips 2B
6. Edwin Encarnacion 3B
7. Joey Votto 1B
8. Javier Valentin/David Ross C

Your thoughts.


Keppinger really needs a spot on this roster. Unfortunately it's probably best spent as a Utility player, a position currently held by Freel who's sucking up $3M or so in roster money next season.

I do like batting Dunn 4th though, it's a better position for him, although he's been hot lately.

I'd go this route:

Hamilton/Freel/Hopper - CF
Phillips - 2B
Griffey - RF
Dunn - LF
Keppinger - 3B
Votto - 1B
Gonzalez - SS
Ross - C

I think EE is the odd-man out. I hope I'm wrong, but looks like the Reds are ready to give up on him. I wish it was Freel, but I don't think they allow themselves to eat that much salary. Gonzo will be the SS barring some Miraculous off-season trade (I give it a .05% chance).

IMO, Phillips' speed is too valuable to be down in the lineup, and Dunn needs to be moved up. I don't give a horsepoo about the Lefty-Lefty combo. Seems we never worried about it the last couple years, not sure why we have to keep THAT Narron legacy.

Dunn needs more protection in the lineup. Keppinger is a solid contact guy and would deliver that, and they Votto gives HIM protection. You could switch Phillips and Keppinger if you wish to keep Kepp's bat in the #2, but he's only there now because of injury. When Freel returns healthy and Hamilton is ready to play every day, Keppinger has no real place in the lineup without us dropping someone. Anybody else think we start EE in AAA or trade him?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

JLB5
08-20-2007, 04:12 PM
Dunn needs more protection in the lineup. Keppinger is a solid contact guy and would deliver that, and they Votto gives HIM protection.

LOL, cracks me up everytime I read that Dunn needs "protection." I don't know of any other hitter with his paycheck who needs "protection." Dunn should be the protection in the lineup, not being protected by a guy making the league minimum.

BLEEDS
08-20-2007, 04:30 PM
LOL, cracks me up everytime I read that Dunn needs "protection." I don't know of any other hitter with his paycheck who needs "protection." Dunn should be the protection in the lineup, not being protected by a guy making the league minimum.


Just simple logic. I know you don't have much of that.

Wonder why Phillips is having a career year? People don't want to walk him to face Dunn.

When you've got Conine/Gonzalez/Ross behind you, people are going to pitch around you. I KNOW, I KNOW, he should be a better hitter and swing at those balls out of the strikezone, Muggerd Jr... but let's grow up. This is Big Boy Baseball. There is LOGIC to creating lineups, not simply putting your best Run Producer 5th in the lineup.

Look at his career stats too, you'll see just a SMALL advantage to batting him 4th versus 5th.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

JLB5
08-20-2007, 05:20 PM
Just simple logic. I know you don't have much of that.

Wonder why Phillips is having a career year? People don't want to walk him to face Dunn.

When you've got Conine/Gonzalez/Ross behind you, people are going to pitch around you. I KNOW, I KNOW, he should be a better hitter and swing at those balls out of the strikezone, Muggerd Jr... but let's grow up. This is Big Boy Baseball. There is LOGIC to creating lineups, not simply putting your best Run Producer 5th in the lineup.

Look at his career stats too, you'll see just a SMALL advantage to batting him 4th versus 5th.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

What exactly is illogical about my statement? It may be contrary to your opinion, but it is based upon sound logic. Dunn is one of the "protectors" in the Reds' lineup. If your protectors need protecting, than you are in trouble. Dunn doesn't need protection. He does NOT have a significant drop off in his numbers hitting 5th vs 4th. He has roughly the same number of PAs in his career in both spots with the exact same OBP (.381) in both positions, a little higher BA batting 4th, but more HR and RBI batting 5th. I would agree that the advantage to hitting him 4th vs 5th is SMALL. His career numbers are actually worst when batting 3rd, a position where he should have plenty of "protection" from the cleanup hitter.

I agree Dunn should hit higher in the lineup because he has a high OBP and you want those guys hitting higher in the order. That would be based upon logic, not a mythical construct known as "protection." You could hit Dunn 1st, 4th, or 8th in the lineup and I guarantee you his overall stats are going to come out roughly the same. His BA will be between .235-.275, he'll hit 35-45 HR, and drive in 85-115 runs, 90-110 BB, and K 175-195 times year in and year out. That's the hitter he is, no matter where you put him. You maximize his value by moving him up in the lineup.

I would say that Phillips is having a "career year" because his power is maturing in his 2nd full season. His HR are really the only number to jump since last year and have not been that much of a leap considering his age and experience level. His RBI are on the rise as a function of opportunity, but he's not driving in guys at significantly higher rate. His BA and OPB are the same.

BLEEDS
08-20-2007, 06:05 PM
I would agree that the advantage to hitting him 4th vs 5th is SMALL.

His BA will be between .235-.275, he'll hit 35-45 HR, and drive in 85-115 runs, 90-110 BB, and K 175-195 times year in and year out. That's the hitter he is, no matter where you put him. You maximize his value by moving him up in the lineup.

SO, you think 40 pts of BA, 10 HRs, 30 Runs and 20 BB's is SMALL?!?!?! It's not.

Yes, he's hit more HR's in his career, but up until about 9 days ago - with the games played the same - they were about even.

One thing you forgot to mention was the additional 45 BB's he has career in the 5 hole versus the 4 hole. In a little over 900 AB's that SIGNIFICANT and is called PROTECTION. Yeah, he's "taken" 12 BB's in the last 9 games or so...

Phillips HR's have increased you say? Hmmm, let me guess you can't see the correlation to him getting better balls to hit those HR's with because Dunn is batting behind him. - Wait, you are the same guy who said Dunn would have the same stats hitting 8th as 4th. Why am I wasting my time...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

ChatterRed
08-20-2007, 11:42 PM
I would keep Belisle and try him out of the bullpen the rest of the year. From time to time starters go down with injuries, end up on IR for 15 days or so, and Belisle would be a former starter who could step in. Matt may be suffering from pitching more innings than he's used to.

Pitch him out of the pen and spot start him every now in then when someone gets hurt, etc.

I'd keep him. $1.2 million isn't that much, compared to, say, Guardado's $3.5 million option.

Muggerd
08-20-2007, 11:59 PM
I would try to trade for Joe Blanton :dunno: guy is pretty sick for the As.

BEETTLEBUG
08-21-2007, 09:31 AM
Blanton is Kentucky guy that might revise his career back here near Kentucky. We helped Aaron lets try for two.

jmac
08-21-2007, 10:48 AM
I would try to trade for Joe Blanton :dunno: guy is pretty sick for the As.

Joe Blanton would be a decent addtion IMO.
However I wouldnt say his season is "sick" or needs "revised" (mentioned )by other poster

Blanton : 11-8 185 IP 29 BB 111 k 3.84 ERA whip 1.17

A 3.84 ERA in the AL is pretty good and the guy is already near 200 ip.

Muggerd
08-21-2007, 11:27 AM
Joe Blanton would be a decent addtion IMO.
However I wouldnt say his season is "sick" or needs "revised" (mentioned )by other poster

Blanton : 11-8 185 IP 29 BB 111 k 3.84 ERA whip 1.17

A 3.84 ERA in the AL is pretty good and the guy is already near 200 ip.
hes like 3rd in the AL in 1-2-3 innings, no idea if thats any good but it sounds good :dunno:

Yea well sick isnt a very proper term so i figured i could get away with it.

Hes having the best year of his short career so far but I would definitely look into acquiring.

Dunner44
08-21-2007, 12:39 PM
This is my attempt at making the best roster possible with the pieces the Reds have in place right now. I'm assuming that they let Dunn go at the end of the season and they pick up at least one solid BP guy, one solid starter and some RH power in FA.

1B - Cantu/Hatteberg
2B - Phillips
SS - Gonzo
3B - EE
LF - Votto
CF - Hamilton
RF - Griffey
C - Ross/ Valentin

Bench: Keppinger, Hopper, RH power bat

Rotation:
Harang
Arroyo
Livingston
Bailey
Free Agent

Pen:
CP: Weathers/ Burton
McBeth
Bray
Coutlangus
Majik (he may finally be healthy)
FA help

If Ryan Freel is owed 4 million next year, find a trading partner. Kepp is cheaper and has a much better OBP.

Boston Red
08-21-2007, 12:43 PM
Brandon Webb is a UK guy, too, from Ashland KY. I think he should consider it his duty to come back to the area and help the Reds out.

BLEEDS
08-21-2007, 01:11 PM
I'm assuming that they let Dunn go at the end of the season and they pick up at least one solid BP guy, one solid starter and some RH power in FA.

That's a HUGE assumption. The FA market keeps getting thinner and thinner. Our best Option is taking Dunn's option at $13M. We aren't going to find ANYTHING Remotely close to a RH Power Bat in FA.

The only reason we MIGHT not pick up Dunn's option is if we are truly going to bring up Jay Bruce next year. However, I think we are keeping him for Jr's replacement in '09. BUT, if we did, there's really not enough room for all those OF-ers - there barely is now as we speak with Hamilton/Hopper/Freel in the mix. Jr and Dunn are cornerstones in the OF, and you've got to get Hamilton his AB's. Problem is, with the advent of Votto at 1B - I don't see him playing LF (all reports are he makes Adam Dunn look like a Gold Glover in Left) - then we are seriously getting TOO lefty heavy, and apparently NONE of them can hit Lefties.

Hamilton
Votto
Jr
Dunn
Bruce

We can't have 5 guys in our lineup hitting from the left side. The only other guy we have at 1B is Hatteberg and he's a lefty too.


If Ryan Freel is owed 4 million next year, find a trading partner. Kepp is cheaper and has a much better OBP.

He's owed $3M in 2008, and $4M in 2009 - when he's 33 and he's already proven he can't stay healthy, especially since he's always diving for balls he took bad first steps on in the OF.

We'd all love to "find trading partners" for Freel, Stanton, et al when they are playing at their worst levels, but let's GET REAL!! these dreams don't get granted my friend. Wake Up.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
08-21-2007, 01:15 PM
update: forgot about Cantu. He will get his shot at 1B, maybe platooning with Votto.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Dunner44
08-21-2007, 06:18 PM
That's a HUGE assumption. The FA market keeps getting thinner and thinner. Our best Option is taking Dunn's option at $13M. We aren't going to find ANYTHING Remotely close to a RH Power Bat in FA.

The only reason we MIGHT not pick up Dunn's option is if we are truly going to bring up Jay Bruce next year. However, I think we are keeping him for Jr's replacement in '09. BUT, if we did, there's really not enough room for all those OF-ers - there barely is now as we speak with Hamilton/Hopper/Freel in the mix. Jr and Dunn are cornerstones in the OF, and you've got to get Hamilton his AB's. Problem is, with the advent of Votto at 1B - I don't see him playing LF (all reports are he makes Adam Dunn look like a Gold Glover in Left) - then we are seriously getting TOO lefty heavy, and apparently NONE of them can hit Lefties.

Hamilton
Votto
Jr
Dunn
Bruce

We can't have 5 guys in our lineup hitting from the left side. The only other guy we have at 1B is Hatteberg and he's a lefty too.



He's owed $3M in 2008, and $4M in 2009 - when he's 33 and he's already proven he can't stay healthy, especially since he's always diving for balls he took bad first steps on in the OF.

We'd all love to "find trading partners" for Freel, Stanton, et al when they are playing at their worst levels, but let's GET REAL!! these dreams don't get granted my friend. Wake Up.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


By "find a trading partner" for Freel, I meant find someone who will take him for part of his contract and maybe throw in an A minor leaguer or two.

As for the lefty problem, the lineup I had doesn't make it any worse. Against righty pitching you start all those lefties, and the lineup probably looks like this:

CF - Hamilton
SS - Gonzo
RF - Griffey
2B - Phillips
LF - Votto
1B - Hatteberg
3B - EE
C - Ross/Valentin (There's no platoon there, as both hit better off righties)
Pitcher Spot

That lineup is based on what the Cannon has tortted out in weeks past.

Against lefties, you minimize the number of lefties in the lineup.

CF- Hopper
SS- Gonzo
Rf - griffey
2B - Phillips
Lf - Votto
1B - Cantu
3B - EE
C - Ross/Javy
Pitcher

You inster Keppinger in there wherever you can, including LF to replace Votto if he can;t hit left handers. The LHP lineup only has two left handed hitters who don't fare as well, same as the lineups they trot out now. Find someone with moderate RF power to platoon in LF with Votto, and it looks even better....

BLEEDS
08-22-2007, 05:20 PM
By "find a trading partner" for Freel, I meant find someone who will take him for part of his contract and maybe throw in an A minor leaguer or two.

As for the lefty problem, the lineup I had doesn't make it any worse. Against righty pitching you start all those lefties, and the lineup probably looks like this:

CF - Hamilton
SS - Gonzo
RF - Griffey
2B - Phillips
LF - Votto
1B - Hatteberg
3B - EE
C - Ross/Valentin (There's no platoon there, as both hit better off righties)
Pitcher Spot

That lineup is based on what the Cannon has tortted out in weeks past.

Against lefties, you minimize the number of lefties in the lineup.

CF- Hopper
SS- Gonzo
Rf - griffey
2B - Phillips
Lf - Votto
1B - Cantu
3B - EE
C - Ross/Javy
Pitcher

You inster Keppinger in there wherever you can, including LF to replace Votto if he can;t hit left handers. The LHP lineup only has two left handed hitters who don't fare as well, same as the lineups they trot out now. Find someone with moderate RF power to platoon in LF with Votto, and it looks even better....

I see where you're coming from. However, I can't see us EVER batting Gonzo second. He's a terrible candidate. If there's any one glaring weakness on this team, it's our #2 hitter. We don't have one.

I remember Dunn hitting 2nd for a stretch and not doing too bad. Keppinger IMO would be the ideal #2 guy, but I don't think he's getting a starting job with us, more of a Super Utility guy.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Screwball
08-22-2007, 05:24 PM
If there's any one glaring weakness on this team, it's our #2 hitter. We don't have one.


Personally, I'd say that one glaring weakness is a little thing called pitching, but the 2 hole hitter is up there too. ;)

BLEEDS
08-22-2007, 05:56 PM
Personally, I'd say that one glaring weakness is a little thing called pitching, but the 2 hole hitter is up there too. ;)

touche'!
:duel:


I should have said "lineup"... thanks Mrs. Crabtree...


PEACE

-BLEEDS

Screwball
08-22-2007, 06:26 PM
BTW, I think this team does have an ideal #2 hitter: Josh Hamilton. He can hit for average, will work a walk - high OBP, can handle the bat on hit and runs, has speed to run the basepaths, and can hit for power to drive in the leadoff guy.

BLEEDS
08-22-2007, 06:44 PM
BTW, I think this team does have an ideal #2 hitter: Josh Hamilton. He can hit for average, will work a walk - high OBP, can handle the bat on hit and runs, has speed to run the basepaths, and can hit for power to drive in the leadoff guy.

You may be right - but who leads off then, because Josh is in CF instead of Freel?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Screwball
08-22-2007, 06:50 PM
You may be right - but who leads off then, because Josh is in CF instead of Freel?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Right now I think the choice would have to be Keppinger. But if/when he cools off, then we're stuck without a legitimate leadoff hitter.

BLEEDS
08-22-2007, 07:04 PM
Right now I think the choice would have to be Keppinger. But if/when he cools off, then we're stuck without a legitimate leadoff hitter.

Exactly my point, the leadoff guy is either Josh or Freel - whomever is in CF.

Josh is a good #2 hitter, but he's only good if someone else is injured and/or Freel/Hopper are spelling someone on the OF/IF...

Wonder what this looks like:

Freel - CF
Dunn - LF
Jr - RF
Phillips - 2B
Votto - 1B
EE - 3B
Gonzo - SS
Ross/Valentin - C

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Screwball
08-22-2007, 07:09 PM
Freel - CF
Dunn - LF
Jr - RF
Phillips - 2B
Votto - 1B
EE - 3B
Gonzo - SS
Ross/Valentin - C


No way I would start Freel over Hamilton. Honestly, I don't think he'll ever be the same again after his latest concussion.

BLEEDS
08-22-2007, 10:43 PM
No way I would start Freel over Hamilton. Honestly, I don't think he'll ever be the same again after his latest concussion.

That'd be against lefties. Can't start all of 'em vs. Lefties.

Unfortunately we are stuck with Freel and his contract. NObody's going to trade for him and pay him - we'd be stuck with the cash. Our only hope is that he recovers and makes a serviceable - albeit ridiculously expensive - reserve.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

AmarilloRed
08-22-2007, 10:53 PM
I would have Keppinger at lead-off. He can hit for a high average, has shown some power, and is starting to take walks. My only concern is if he has the speed to steal bases.

Screwball
08-22-2007, 10:55 PM
That'd be against lefties. Can't start all of 'em vs. Lefties.

Unfortunately we are stuck with Freel and his contract. NObody's going to trade for him and pay him - we'd be stuck with the cash. Our only hope is that he recovers and makes a serviceable - albeit ridiculously expensive - reserve.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Freel's actually MUCH worse against lefties than he is against righties.

vs. RHP: .315/.392/.412/.804
vs. LHP: .143/.172/.250/.422

IMO, Freel really shouldn't play any more than a couple of games a week, and that should only be against righties. His contract is too high for that, but with better players on the roster, that's just the way it is.

BLEEDS
08-23-2007, 12:18 AM
Freel's actually MUCH worse against lefties than he is against righties.

vs. RHP: .315/.392/.412/.804
vs. LHP: .143/.172/.250/.422

IMO, Freel really shouldn't play any more than a couple of games a week, and that should only be against righties. His contract is too high for that, but with better players on the roster, that's just the way it is.

Interesting. I'm sure that's just this year though. Career may be different (too lazy/tired to check). But nice stat!!

I agree, we are basically stuck with him, and have to play him only sparingly until he turns it around.

PEACE

-BLEEDS