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TOBTTReds
08-21-2007, 09:44 PM
I got touched up a here a couple weeks ago when I called Burton a "poor man's Mariano Rivera." But I'm sticking with it (consider pitch reputoir).

He has gained command of his fastball, which is a cutter, and he runs it hard in on LH'ers. Eventually, LH'ers will struggle mightely against him as they did tonight. He drops in a change around 89 and his slider at 85 is a tough pitch, though he doesn't throw it often. I REALLY like this guy.

Post All-Star break:

20 ip, 13 hits, 12 bb, 18 k, 4 er, 1.80 era

He's getting his command down, still has a bit to work on though. But I really like his future.

OnBaseMachine
08-21-2007, 09:51 PM
I'm right there with ya brother. I've been a huge fan of Jared Burton since the first day I saw him pitch, which was in spring training on TV against the Yankees. IIRC, he struckout Giambi and Jeter in the same inning with that split fingered-changeup. His stuff was nasty back then but it's even nastier now that he has established some command (though he still has room to improve upon that).

Very nice find by Wayne Krivsky.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2007, 09:54 PM
I'm glad they stuck with him--rather, I'm glad his rule 5 status forced Krivsky to keep him in the majors.

Still, anybody can be all-universe for a month (anybody remember Todd Coffey?); let's see him repeat it next season--when it might actually matter.

CTA513
08-21-2007, 09:59 PM
He looks more confident on the mound and it also looks like his fastball has gained a few more MPH compaired to what he showed earler in the season.

Cyclone792
08-21-2007, 10:06 PM
Burton's looked very impressive recently, and hopefully he continues to impress throughout the rest of the season and into next season. He's come a long way with commanding his pitches already this season, and gaining further command of all his pitches should only help him continue to improve.

For Mackanin, right now the best thing to do with Burton is to handle him properly. Don't bury Burton in the bullpen if he has a bad outing (a bad outing is bound to eventually happen), but don't overuse him either.

Matt700wlw
08-21-2007, 10:29 PM
His name's Levi?

smith288
08-21-2007, 10:44 PM
Its his chinstrap beard.

paulrichjr
08-21-2007, 10:55 PM
I would like to see him in the closer spot right now. The problem with PeteMac is that he is winning and won't try people in new places. Does he not know the tradition that we have in Cincy of losing?

TOBTTReds
08-22-2007, 12:19 AM
I would like to see him in the closer spot right now. The problem with PeteMac is that he is winning and won't try people in new places. Does he not know the tradition that we have in Cincy of losing?

I'm fine with him where he is. The Reds have won 90 games in a row when leading after 8. So closing isn't the problem, and Stormy will be here next year. I say continue to give him good innings in key innings, but not closing. For some reason, those last 3 outs can make or break a relievers mentality, no matter what the score. Let him grow still at his current role.

wally post
08-22-2007, 12:22 AM
Aves - nice post. I agree.

sonny
08-22-2007, 12:23 AM
Pleasant suprise. Give me 5 more relievers just like him.

oregonred
08-22-2007, 12:36 AM
I was very impressed with him in the game I went to in Miami last month (the lone Reds win). He was popping the glove and stood out on a night where about 10 guys blessed the mound.

Bray + Burton + Weathers and suddenly the bullpen starts to look almost respectable.

The Baumer
08-22-2007, 12:45 AM
Burton is great, which is no surprise here. When I chart Burton's iDIPS on graph paper it's like I'm peering through the scrolling 1's and 0's of the Matrix and seeing that beautiful blonde in a red dress.

remdog
08-22-2007, 01:22 AM
When I chart Burton's iDIPS on graph paper it's like I'm peering through the scrolling 1's and 0's of the Matrix and seeing that beautiful blonde in a red dress.

You need a hobby! :p:

And where the heck do ya' play tennis in New York?

Rem

harangatang
08-22-2007, 01:27 AM
The problem with PeteMac is that he is winning and won't try people in new places.The problem is Krivsky because he's running the team.

remdog
08-22-2007, 01:28 AM
.....closing isn't the problem, and Stormy will be here next year. I say continue to give him good innings in key innings, but not closing. For some reason, those last 3 outs can make or break a relievers mentality, no matter what the score. Let him grow still at his current role.

I agree that Burton should continue the way he's been used. However, I hold my breath when Weathers comes on----he always seems to walk a fine line between success and disaster. Personally, I hope the Reds can find a taker for Stormy either in the last month of the season or over the winter. Get something of value for David before his house of cards comes tumbleing down.

Rem

BCubb2003
08-22-2007, 02:07 AM
I agree that Burton should continue the way he's been used. However, I hold my breath when Weathers comes on----he always seems to walk a fine line between success and disaster. Personally, I hope the Reds can find a taker for Stormy either in the last month of the season or over the winter. Get something of value for David before his house of cards comes tumbleing down.

Rem

I agree. Weathers has been running on fumes for a while now. Or willpower. Sometimes he can step up and just will a victory. The next time, though, he's empty.

fearofpopvol1
08-22-2007, 02:40 AM
26/31 saves for Weathers with an ERA of around 3.5 is very impressive for a guy that's not a closer, has never been one and is by all accounts an older pleyer. He's certainly not a long term answer, but I'd say he's been pretty stellar for the Reds this year.

nate
08-22-2007, 07:30 AM
Fay had a cool little nugget (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/2007/08/reds-8-braves-7.asp) on Burton:


Interesting stat: Burton's ERA before the All-Star Break was 5.19. It's 1.96 since. But hitters hit .200 off him both before and after.

LoganBuck
08-22-2007, 07:36 AM
26/31 saves for Weathers with an ERA of around 3.5 is very impressive for a guy that's not a closer, has never been one and is by all accounts an older pleyer. He's certainly not a long term answer, but I'd say he's been pretty stellar for the Reds this year.

Especially when a couple of those blown saves came with him being brought in with multiple runners on and less than two outs in the eighth, nursing one run leads.

LoganBuck
08-22-2007, 07:41 AM
Fay had a cool little nugget (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/2007/08/reds-8-braves-7.asp) on Burton:

Burton wasn't bad before the break. He had a couple games where he walked or hit people, and then Narron pulled him, and then one of the other arsonists, let his inherited runners score, without Burton recording an out. The only thing wrong with Burton before the break was his propensity for being a little wild.

bucksfan2
08-22-2007, 08:17 AM
Burton was never about stuff he was about control. When he got into trouble it was because of wildness. Once he got comfortable and developed better control he has become lights out. Krivsky really gets no credit for getting this guy but he has been one heck of a find.

paulrichjr
08-22-2007, 09:04 AM
Burton was never about stuff he was about control. When he got into trouble it was because of wildness. Once he got comfortable and developed better control he has become lights out. Krivsky really gets no credit for getting this guy but he has been one heck of a find.

How can you say that Krivs gets no credit for getting this guy? Personally this is the kind of stuff that seems to make Krivs a respectable GM. I didn't like Krivs any at all last year. This year I actually think he deserves a lot of credit for some great moves such as getting Burton for nothing. Phillips, Burton, Hatte, Hamilton, Keppinger, Arroyo (argue if you want), and Ross were all had for nothing. These guys are all big reasons why the Reds are playing so much better now and why I think the future is much brighter now than it actually was last year. Some might even argue that Bray was had for nothing. :D

Reds1
08-22-2007, 09:18 AM
He's got the swag. I love it and it's something the pen needs. With him and Bray to set up Weathers we can win a game like we did last night. It's at least a step and hopefully Burton doesn't lose the magic like say Coffey has.

nate
08-22-2007, 09:19 AM
How can you say that Krivs gets no credit for getting this guy? Personally this is the kind of stuff that seems to make Krivs a respectable GM. I didn't like Krivs any at all last year. This year I actually think he deserves a lot of credit for some great moves such as getting Burton for nothing. Phillips, Burton, Hatte, Hamilton, Keppinger, Arroyo (argue if you want), and Ross were all had for nothing. These guys are all big reasons why the Reds are playing so much better now and why I think the future is much brighter now than it actually was last year. Some might even argue that Bray was had for nothing. :D

I think he's saying that Krivsky isn't getting any or much credit for the Burton signing/

lollipopcurve
08-22-2007, 09:41 AM
Credit for the Burton signing goes to the scouting effort they had on him in the Arizona Fall League (where Reds prospects were teamed with As prospects). I think I remember Krivsky crediting Scott Nethery or one of the other FO higher ups he has. You have to credit Krivsky for pushing his staff to be productive in the Rule V -- it looks as if they may have come out of it with 2 really good players, which may be unprecedented in the history of that draft.

Sea Ray
08-22-2007, 09:46 AM
The problem is Krivsky because he's running the team.

C'mon now. WK is the one that found Burton. In fact he found both Burton and Hamilton as Rule 5 pickups. You gotta give him credit for that. Think where this team will be if he finds a couple more talents like those two this year?

RedsManRick
08-22-2007, 10:45 AM
Burton and Hamilton. Not a bad Rule V. I still get the feeling that Krivsky is a solid scouting director sitting in a GMs chair.

TOBTTReds
08-22-2007, 10:50 AM
C'mon now. WK is the one that found Burton. In fact he found both Burton and Hamilton as Rule 5 pickups. You gotta give him credit for that. Think where this team will be if he finds a couple more talents like those two this year?

Think where they would be without his steals.

Arroyo
Phillips
Hatteberg
Ross (good for the staff at least)
Hamilton
Burton
Signing Harang LT, especially after seeing Big Z's deal with the Cubs

lollipopcurve
08-22-2007, 11:05 AM
I still get the feeling that Krivsky is a solid scouting director sitting in a GMs chair.

People ended up saying the same thing about O'Brien. But Krivsky's rep was as a guy who's good with contracts, and he's done a good job in that department, I think -- especially when you look at where he's spent the bulk of the $$$$ -- Harang, Arroyo, Dunn.

RedsManRick
08-22-2007, 11:08 AM
I find it interesting that on balance, it seems like Krivsky has done a pretty decent job acquiring free talent. And yet the team is no better (in terms of record) than it was when he got here. How does that work? Is he making progress or not?

Well, the good thing is that the Kent Merker in 2005, one which we could not expect to get again, from a Burton, who we can reasonably expect to do this going forward. The same comparison could be made with Phillips and Aurilia.

There is a case to be made that by making the roster younger without making it worse, he's set us up for a nice period of growth. While the amount of talent on the field is similar as of today, it should grow over the next 2-3 years as we are able to get repeat performances and continue to add on top of that. In 2005, we didn't have Bailey, Bruce, Votto, etc. ready to make plus contributions.

nate
08-22-2007, 11:16 AM
I find it interesting that on balance, it seems like Krivsky has done a pretty decent job acquiring free talent. And yet the team is no better (in terms of record) than it was when he got here. How does that work? Is he making progress or not?

Well, the good thing is that the Kent Merker in 2005, one which we could not expect to get again, from a Burton, who we can reasonably expect to do this going forward. The same comparison could be made with Phillips and Aurilia.

There is a case to be made that by making the roster younger without making it worse, he's set us up for a nice period of growth. While the amount of talent on the field is similar as of today, it should grow over the next 2-3 years as we are able to get repeat performances and continue to add on top of that. In 2005, we didn't have Bailey, Bruce, Votto, etc. ready to make plus contributions.

I think you've answered your own question. He's building up the org with younger talent. As many jokes as people want to make about our players getting AARP discounts and wearing the pants low to cover vericose veins, those moves were made to see if they could "stick" one last time _OR_ be moved for something else later _OR_ help mentor these young'uns into playing big league ball.

Yeah, not every move works out perfectly but I'd rather he takes cheap risks than expensive "Milton-sized" ones.

paulrichjr
08-22-2007, 11:22 AM
I think he's saying that Krivsky isn't getting any or much credit for the Burton signing/


Read it wrong... Thanks


Going back to the other posts about Rule V drafts.... How many teams have ever had 2 very good players added to their team in one year via the Rule V draft? It has to be a very small number.

I honestly believe that Krivs has found more talent in the past 2 years for virtually no cost than anyone else in MLB. (Cubs maybe have found more talent but adding $10 billion in payroll is a little different route than Krivs has taken)

I honestly hope that Cast gives him a chance to finish out his contract because if he keeps up these kind of moves, we should be setting very nice in 2009.

DoogMinAmo
08-22-2007, 11:58 AM
Burton and Hamilton. Not a bad Rule V. I still get the feeling that Krivsky is a solid scouting director sitting in a GMs chair.

He is a solid scouting director on a team that sorely lacked at scouting. He upgrades talent on the minor and major league rosters, which is the GMs primary goal. He is astute with contracts and bargain shopping (other than the Freel extension), necessary for a small market. Many still harp on him for the trade (which one could argue we won with talent, but didnt get enough of an upgrade), but other than that he has put a nice resume together.

I would say his biggest deficiancy, however, is his close to the vest nature. Armchair GMs get disappointed and the regular fan feels out of the loop. His swing and misses may be augemented by the fact that they are fan favorites or because he doesnt say much, but he is a pretty reliable contact hitter when all is said and done (jury is still out if he can hit the home run.)

He also can seem to discount OBP at times (but this could just be a moneyball-esque grabbing currently undervalued talent, and hoping to teach patience) and age (although I am with many others that he plans to flip the talent for prospect to contenders when younger talent is ready to replace them).

Otherwise, he has been a solid GM and a good pickup by Cast. What he is not good at currently, he can grow and learn. Also, even if many of the guys set to contribute soon were not his draft picks, they have thrived in his revamped development system. I as well would like to see him finish his contract.

redsfan4445
08-22-2007, 12:38 PM
If NARRON was still here Burton would still be buried in the bullpen... thats a FACT!... So thank Pete he changed it around...and gave him a chance. I like his stuff. And to keep EDDIE on the active roster is ridiculous...

RedsManRick
08-22-2007, 12:45 PM
I feel like WK is the recovery GM. He's akin to that coach who comes in to the losing team, instills the right attitude, but can't get them over the top. A Buck Showalter if you will. On the whole, WK is increasing the talent level of the organization without assuming a lot of bad costs. However, not sucking only takes you so far. What remains to be seem is his ability to continue to improve the team when the gains become harder to realize.

It's one thing to clear out the crap and make the best of the freely available talent. It's another thing entirely to continue improving once you've filled the biggest potholes. He seems be doing the former pretty well. I have very little confidence in this ability to do the latter, particularly given his aversion to analytics.

Getting to medicrity means avoiding the big mistakes like Milton. Getting to that next level means we cannot afford the stupid, smaller mistakes that erode our production on the fringes and counteract the good moves -- like Stanton and Castro. What you'll notice about most of the great teams in addition to their core of superstar players is that they get production from everywhere, or at a minimum aren't getting sub-replacement production. You can have an anti-superstar worth of poor production in the form of a weak bench and middle relief.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 12:46 PM
I think you've answered your own question. He's building up the org with younger talent. As many jokes as people want to make about our players getting AARP discounts and wearing the pants low to cover vericose veins, those moves were made to see if they could "stick" one last time _OR_ be moved for something else later _OR_ help mentor these young'uns into playing big league ball.

Yeah, not every move works out perfectly but I'd rather he takes cheap risks than expensive "Milton-sized" ones.

You can die of Stanton-itis just as easily as you can Milton-itis. Especially if you contract several different strains of Stanton-itis.

nate
08-22-2007, 12:49 PM
You can die of Stanton-itis just as easily as you can Milton-itis. Especially if you contract several different strains of Stanton-itis.

Its easier to control the smaller outbreaks.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 12:50 PM
Its easier to control the smaller outbreaks.

Not really; it kills the same numbers, only in different cities.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 12:59 PM
If WK is such a good scout, why have his drafts sucked something awful?

I think that WK, like Jim Bowden, seeks a particular, unattainable ideal skill set in position players and occasionally unearths a guy with one or two good skills. Guys like Hamilton and Burton are the happy accidents of low percentage shots in the dark.

We don't need Platonists in Cincy, we need a healthy dose of Aristotle.

Roy Tucker
08-22-2007, 01:06 PM
I would say his biggest deficiancy, however, is his close to the vest nature.

I agree..... A column from a couple weeks back from John Fay (yes, he hits the mark every so often).

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070812/COL09/708120397/1082/SPT

Molehill plus Reds equals mountain
Communication ills invite needless flak
What we got here is ... failure to communicate.

Always loved that line from "Cool Hand Luke." It describes things in Redsland these days.

This has not been the best of Reds seasons by any measure. But what's amazing from where I sit is how much flak the club takes needlessly over things that, if just handled a bit differently, would not be a big deal at all.

The classic example of that occurred Tuesday. That's the day the Reds sent out Jon Coutlangus, put Ryan Freel on the disabled list, brought up Gary Majewski and activated Eddie Guardado.

If the club had sent out Todd Coffey instead of Coutlangus, it would have been no big deal - a second item in the notebook in the newspaper, a mention in the updates on the radio.

But because the Reds sent out a pitcher who had good numbers (2.70 ERA since the All-Star break) and kept a pitcher who had horrible numbers since the break (10.61 ERA), the Reds got hammered on the radio and the Internet.

The move had no effect on any game. Coffey didn't pitch again before being optioned to Louisville. If the Reds were dead set on sending Coutlangus down and keeping Coffey up for those few days, a better explanation of why they did what they did might have lessened the grief they took over it.

The Reds obviously already had decided that they were going to claim Jason Ellison and Coffey was going to be the guy going to Louisville. But they chose to keep that a secret.

When asked if a position player would be coming up soon, general manager Wayne Krivsky said: "I have no idea. This is what we're doing tonight. I don't know what's going to happen in the future."

Reds manager Pete Mackanin had been asked minutes before why Coutlangus and not Coffey:

"I don't know how to answer that. There might be something else to it. He hasn't performed well. We need him to be better. But so much is involved that I'm not privy to."

This was a lot like the announcement of Homer Bailey's first start. The manager said one thing, the GM another.

The Reds lost a lot of credibility with the fans over the Coffey move, and needlessly.

The biggest complaint you get about the Reds these days is this: They have no plan.

Which might or might not be true. What is true is no one is willing to talk about the plan.

Because the Reds don't talk about the plan, there's an impression that the club won't pick up Adam Dunn's option for next year. I asked Krivsky about that the other day. He said:

"It's not on my plate right now, because I don't have to make a decision (right now)."

That is hard to believe. Dunn's option is for $13 million. That's one-fifth of the player payroll. When you're in the position the Reds are - hopelessly out of the race - shouldn't at least some focus be on next year?

The Reds have chosen to tighten the information spigot to CIA standards.

Krivsky returns all calls, but he won't talk specifics about anything. And his answer about anything general is, "We're doing everything we can to make the club better."

As opposed to what? Doing everything they can to make the club worse?

Krivsky has done a good job overall as GM. The 40-man roster is considerably better than when he arrived.

But I don't think the average fan believes that. Krivsky has made some moves that haven't worked out. He should take flak for that.

But the heat he took for the Coffey-Coutlangus deal was avoidable.

All it would have taken was a little better communication.

E-mail jfay@enquirer.com

RedsManRick
08-22-2007, 01:08 PM
If WK is such a good scout, why have his drafts sucked something awful?

I think that WK, like Jim Bowden, seeks a particular, unattainable ideal skill set in position players and occasionally unearths a guy with one or two good skills. Guys like Hamilton and Burton are the happy accidents of low percentage shots in the dark.

We don't need Platonists in Cincy, we need a healthy dose of Aristotle.

Sorry, but 14 months is not enough time to judge a draft class. I'm definitely not a big fan of his first round selections either, but you need at least 3 years before passing judgement. Playing the "he didn't draft Lincecum or Chamberlin" card would get a bunch of other GMs fired too.

Shots in the dark? What do you call Phillips? McBeth? Keppinger? Yes, but there's something to be said for taking enough shots that you hit something. It may not be the most efficient, but I'll take hitting something over nothing. I agree, he's not the big picture solution to building a sustainable winner. However, there's no argument that the system is stronger and the team has more young talent than it does when he inherited it. The question is can he successfully transition us from a sustainable 70's win level to a sustainable 80's win level to a sustainable 90's?

nate
08-22-2007, 01:51 PM
If WK is such a good scout, why have his drafts sucked something awful?

Golly, gee whiz...I planted an acorn yesterday and I still don't have a tree. These acorns sure sick something awful!

(Kicks dirt)


I think that WK, like Jim Bowden, seeks a particular, unattainable ideal skill set in position players and occasionally unearths a guy with one or two good skills. Guys like Hamilton and Burton are the happy accidents of low percentage shots in the dark.

Its only a good deal when its a high percentage shot in broad daylight?

The Reds' ship was malnourished to the point of scurvy and Cap'n Wayne found an island with a lime tree on it. Will it be enough? We'll have to stay tuned 'til next season.

Tree theme!

bucksfan2
08-22-2007, 02:11 PM
If WK is such a good scout, why have his drafts sucked something awful?

I think that WK, like Jim Bowden, seeks a particular, unattainable ideal skill set in position players and occasionally unearths a guy with one or two good skills. Guys like Hamilton and Burton are the happy accidents of low percentage shots in the dark.

We don't need Platonists in Cincy, we need a healthy dose of Aristotle.

FCR this statement speaks to a large percentage of the fan base who just dont have a clue. Baseball drafts are evaluated years after they initially happen. Its too early to call anyone in the draft a bust or lable anyone a sure fire bet. I am just dumbfounded that you can say that WK's draft sucked only 14 months after it took place.

So you are saying Hamilton and Burton are just pure luck? Not to mention that you take the risk of drafting a player and you use a roster spot for the entire season to retain the rights to each player. Its not "wow both Burton and Hamilton look like long time fixtures on the reds", rather its just "the only reason we have them is pure luck".

This statement just speaks to the fact that some people will continue to discount every thing that Krivsky does. No matter how good of a move he made Krivsky made it so it sucks. I dont get it, can you honestly tell me that this organization is worse off now than before Krivsky? Can you tell me that this organization was more talent rich before Krivsky came along? Can you tell me that Phillips, Hamilton, Ross, Burton, Arroyo, Keppinger, etc. were all "happy accidents"?

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 03:22 PM
Sorry, but 14 months is not enough time to judge a draft class. I'm definitely not a big fan of his first round selections either, but you need at least 3 years before passing judgement. Playing the "he didn't draft Lincecum or Chamberlin" card would get a bunch of other GMs fired too.

Shots in the dark? What do you call Phillips? McBeth? Keppinger? Yes, but there's something to be said for taking enough shots that you hit something. It may not be the most efficient, but I'll take hitting something over nothing. I agree, he's not the big picture solution to building a sustainable winner. However, there's no argument that the system is stronger and the team has more young talent than it does when he inherited it. The question is can he successfully transition us from a sustainable 70's win level to a sustainable 80's win level to a sustainable 90's?

There is every last bit of evidence that the farm system is no stronger than it was when DanO left. DanO's why it's gotten any kind of attention. Is the MLB product a tad bit better position player wise? Sure. But, honestly, so what?

I'm not taking away from Krivsky's Bowdening of toolsy guys from the scrap heap. It's a talent, and that's fine. But it's working the fringe, not striking at the heart of this team's problems.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 03:32 PM
Golly, gee whiz...I planted an acorn yesterday and I still don't have a tree. These acorns sure sick something awful!

(Kicks dirt)



While one never knows all the particulars of a draft class, I think it's pretty fair to judge a GM and franchise on the first several rounds of the draft AT THE TIME of the draft.

We know what skill sets these guys possess, and we can therefore judge to a great degree based on that.

TOBTTReds
08-22-2007, 03:33 PM
Is the MLB product a tad bit better position player wise? Sure. But, honestly, so what?


Ummm, so we have better players. BP or D'Angelo? Hamilton or Kearns? Ross or Corky? Arroyo or Jimmy Haynes. Come on man.

nate
08-22-2007, 03:51 PM
There is every last bit of evidence that the farm system is no stronger than it was when DanO left. DanO's why it's gotten any kind of attention. Is the MLB product a tad bit better position player wise? Sure. But, honestly, so what?

And that evidence is?

(use this space to provide your answer)

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 03:56 PM
And that evidence is?

(use this space to provide your answer)

Dude--how many farm products are making an impact on the MLB field or in trade?

Krivsky may be pimping the farm harder, but the product hasn't changed.

nate
08-22-2007, 04:03 PM
While one never knows all the particulars of a draft class, I think it's pretty fair to judge a GM and franchise on the first several rounds of the draft AT THE TIME of the draft.

We know what skill sets these guys possess, and we can therefore judge to a great degree based on that.

Might as well not even play the games then!

nate
08-22-2007, 04:17 PM
Dude--how many farm products are making an impact on the MLB field or in trade?

Krivsky may be pimping the farm harder, but the product hasn't changed.

Dude--how many farm products are making an impact on the MLB field or in trade for any teams whose GM has been on the job for a similar amount of time as Wayne?

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 05:23 PM
Dude--how many farm products are making an impact on the MLB field or in trade for any teams whose GM has been on the job for a similar amount of time as Wayne?

Okay--how many of Wayne's picks are making hard charges up through the minors? How many are aggressive movers?

BRM
08-22-2007, 05:43 PM
Okay--how many of Wayne's picks are making hard charges up through the minors? How many are aggressive movers?

Josh Roenicke and Danny Dorn are the only ones that come to mind.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 05:45 PM
Josh Roenicke and Danny Dorn are the only ones that come to mind.

And that ain't much, when you consider their pedigree.

fearofpopvol1
08-22-2007, 06:10 PM
Okay--how many of Wayne's picks are making hard charges up through the minors? How many are aggressive movers?

Yeah but in all fairness, you can't realistically expect that any players from this years draft would already be swiftly moving through the minors. So, that really leaves last years draft which is just a little bit older than a year. I don't think you're allowing very much time to evaluate these guys. A little bit over a year isn't very much time for players to develop.

Now, I'm also not saying the drafts were great either, but I think more time is needed before you can draw any definitive conclusions.

TOBTTReds
08-22-2007, 06:27 PM
Anyway...Jared Burton, what a guy?

RedsManRick
08-22-2007, 06:34 PM
Anyway...Jared Burton, what a guy?

Good thing WK didn't draft him. After 14 months he was only in A ball. Clearly a bust. Of course, he was an 8th rounder and we know that good prospects only come in the top 50 picks.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 06:35 PM
Yeah but in all fairness, you can't realistically expect that any players from this years draft would already be swiftly moving through the minors. So, that really leaves last years draft which is just a little bit older than a year. I don't think you're allowing very much time to evaluate these guys. A little bit over a year isn't very much time for players to develop.

Now, I'm also not saying the drafts were great either, but I think more time is needed before you can draw any definitive conclusions.

I can pretty much tell you that if you're not seeing some signs on last year's class by now, the signs ain't there. Not from everybody and not all bursting at the seams. But you'd have to be pretty dim not to see who could be impact at this point.

M2 and others have done some excellent research on teams that find impact players in the draft year after year. How do they do it? In most cases it isn't just propitious drafting slots and tons of money devoted to the draft. In most cases it's a clear and profitable method.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 06:38 PM
Good thing WK didn't draft him. After 14 months he was only in A ball. Clearly a bust. Of course, he was an 8th rounder and we know that good prospects only come in the top 50 picks.

Beane drafted him. And really, if you couldn't perceive that the kid had stuff, good stuff, after 14 months, then, well, I don't want you scouting for my team.

Now I ask you: who has Wayne drafted that's shown Burton-esque stuff in the minors?

RedsManRick
08-22-2007, 06:51 PM
Beane drafted him. And really, if you couldn't perceive that the kid had stuff, good stuff, after 14 months, then, well, I don't want you scouting for my team.

Now I ask you: who has Wayne drafted that's shown Burton-esque stuff in the minors?

Yes, I know Beane drafted him. But that was sort of my point. He wasn't a high draft pick and he didn't make it the majors in 14 months.

Sean Watson, R2, 2006
Jordan Smith, R6, 2006
Jeremy Burchett, R9, 2006
Joshua Roenicke, Rd 10, 2006
Derrick Lutz, Rd 19, 2006

Have all shown good numbers. He's had 2 drafts and we're 2 months after his second one. As for the stuff, I have a kid named Todd Van Poppel I'd like to trade you. He's got amazing stuff and is going to be the next Nolan Ryan. Same with Paul Wilson. And Brien Taylor. And Chris Gruler. And Ty Howington.

Let me try another approach. After 2 years in the minor leagues, Johan Santana had an ERA around 5, a 1.45 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, and 8.4 K/9. Yes, he was an undrafted FA rather than a draft but the point remains the same. The first 14 months don't tell you nearly enough to make any real judgment in either direction.

Something tells me you'll continue to disagree, so I'll let it go.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 06:53 PM
Yes, I know Beane drafted him. But that was sort of my point. He wasn't a high draft pick and he didn't make it the majors in 14 months.

Sean Watson, R2, 2006
Jordan Smith, R6, 2006
Jeremy Burchett, R9, 2006
Joshua Roenicke, Rd 10, 2006
Derrick Lutz, Rd 19, 2006

He's had 2 drafts and we're 2 months after his second one.

Let me try another approach. After 2 years in the minor leagues, Johan Santana had an ERA around 5, a 1.45 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, and 8.4 K/9. Yes, he was an undrafted FA rather than a draft but the point remains the same. The first 14 months don't tell you nearly enough to make any real judgment in either direction.

Something tells me you'll continue to disagree, so I'll let it go.

It's not that I totally disagree, but you're pointing to outliers like Santana and calling that a method.

Flukes happen. What the A's have done and what the Tigers are doing is a product of *method*.

nate
08-22-2007, 07:05 PM
It's not that I totally disagree, but you're pointing to outliers like Santana and calling that a method.

Flukes happen. What the A's have done and what the Tigers are doing is a product of *method*.

How long did it take those clubs to "find success"?

RedsManRick
08-22-2007, 07:06 PM
It's not that I totally disagree, but you're pointing to outliers like Santana and calling that a method.

Flukes happen. What the A's have done and what the Tigers are doing is a product of *method*.

And the point is that after 14 months we cannot accurate judge the *method* of Krivsky. I can't say I'm really jazzed about what we've seen so far either. However, it's simply premature to judge the 2006 or 2007 draft classes. If you are stuck on the ability to judge a draft class that quickly, or require a draft class which matures that quickly, I'd question your methods.

Santana is not some super rare case. Often, players who end up being quite productive do not show the extent of their potential in their first 2 years of professional baseball. Similarly, players who show great potential in their first 2 years often accomplish little or nothing in the majors.

In 2002, many Reds fans were thrilled with what Ty Howington had accomplished after his first 2 years. He was a first round pick and pitching like it. We could have claimed that draft a success. However, he proceeded to bomb out and we now consider it a bust. Sure, there are guys that start off great and continue to be great. I'd love to get 20 of them every year. However, many, many players follow an alternate trajectory.

I don't disagree that the A's and Tigers have drafted well. I do disagree that we can accurately gauge the quality of any draft in the time frame you are demanding and imagine that the scouting directors for the As and Tigers would agree.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 07:08 PM
How long did it take those clubs to "find success"?

Not long after the right management was in place. Not long at all. And I'm not just talking about in the MLB W-L columns. I'm talking about drafting and trading.

I'd be much more tolerant of the Reds' losing if I saw reasons to believe Wayne was winning trades and drafting horses.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 07:11 PM
And the point is that after 14 months we cannot accurate judge the *method* of Krivsky. I can't say I'm really jazzed about what we've seen so far either. However, it's simply premature to judge the 2006 or 2007 draft classes. If you are stuck on the ability to judge a draft class that quickly, or require a draft class which matures that quickly, I'd question your methods.

Santana is not some super rare case. Often, players who end up being quite productive do not show the extent of their potential in their first 2 years of professional baseball. Similarly, players who show great potential in their first 2 years often accomplish little or nothing in the majors.

In 2002, many Reds fans were thrilled with what Ty Howington had accomplished after his first 2 years. He was a first round pick and pitching like it. We could have claimed that draft a success. However, he proceeded to bomb out and we now consider it a bust. Sure, there are guys that start off great and continue to be great. I'd love to get 20 of them every year. However, many, many players follow an alternate trajectory.

I don't disagree that the A's and Tigers have drafted well. I do disagree that we can accurately gauge the quality of any draft in the time frame you are demanding and imagine that the scouting directors for the As and Tigers would agree.

Santana's not a super rare case? Coming out of nowhere to become the best pitcher in the major leagues for the last 4 or 5 seasons. That's not super rare?

RedsManRick
08-22-2007, 07:13 PM
Not long after the right management was in place. Not long at all. And I'm not just talking about in the MLB W-L columns. I'm talking about drafting and trading.

I'd be much more tolerant of the Reds' losing if I saw reasons to believe Wayne was winning trades and drafting horses.

Winning trades? Like Jeff Stevens for Brandon Phillips? Like Wily Mo Pena for Bronson Arroyo? Like 100 grand for Josh Hamilton and Jared Burton?

I'm not saying he walks on water. Hell, I've torn him apart within the last few weeks. But nobody completely fixes an organization in 14 months. They just don't. And Krivksy has done a number of things right.

nate
08-22-2007, 07:13 PM
Not long after the right management was in place. Not long at all. And I'm not just talking about in the MLB W-L columns. I'm talking about drafting and trading.

I'd be much more tolerant of the Reds' losing if I saw reasons to believe Wayne was winning trades and drafting horses.

The answer to the question was 2-3 years.

nate
08-22-2007, 07:15 PM
I'd be much more tolerant of the Reds' losing if I saw reasons to believe Wayne was winning trades and drafting horses.

I think he's "won" quite a few trades and drafted decent players.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 07:16 PM
I think he's "won" quite a few trades and drafted decent players.

You believe that all you want. I'll wait on the empirical proof that it's happened.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 07:20 PM
Winning trades? Like Jeff Stevens for Brandon Phillips? Like Wily Mo Pena for Bronson Arroyo? Like 100 grand for Josh Hamilton and Jared Burton?

I'm not saying he walks on water. Hell, I've torn him apart within the last few weeks. But nobody completely fixes an organization in 14 months. They just don't. And Krivksy has done a number of things right.

I'm not arguing that Krivsky's done nothing right. I thought Bowden did a bunch of things right too.

Matt700wlw
08-22-2007, 07:26 PM
You believe that all you want. I'll wait on the empirical proof that it's happened.

You've already determined that he hasn't drafted well, and said you can tell at this early stage, and can tell very shortly after the drafts are conducted....

Now you're waiting on the proof on whether he has or hasn't.


Which is it? You can't have it both ways. Can you determine the draft early on or do you have to wait and see? Or is it whichever supports your argument best?

I have no idea how to rate his drafts....to me, it's too soon to give a fair judgement.

Matt700wlw
08-22-2007, 07:36 PM
I'm not arguing that Krivsky's done nothing right. I thought Bowden did a bunch of things right too.

I think Bowden did more good earlier in his tenure....late in his tenure he got all kinds of crazy...and he still is.

His ego became bigger than anything, and he pretty much thought he can do no wrong.

He'll be out of another job soon...

The Baumer
08-22-2007, 08:47 PM
I want to see the episode of CSI where the suspect is cleared of murder charges after investigators find he spent the entire day of the crime arguing his point on a baseball message board.

nate
08-22-2007, 08:56 PM
I want to see the episode of CSI where the suspect is cleared of murder charges after investigators find he spent the entire day of the crime arguing his point on a baseball message board.

Its the sole reason I persist.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2007, 09:12 PM
I want to see the episode of CSI where the suspect is cleared of murder charges after investigators find he spent the entire day of the crime arguing his point on a baseball message board.

I want to spend my life being "meta."

RedsFan75
08-23-2007, 08:42 AM
So did anyone catch Thom last night giving us the scoop on where his name came from, or did I miss it in the Gm discussion?

If I did I apologize, but I think I heard Thom state Burton was named after his dad's favorite chewing tobacco, but they changed the middle name to Jared to make it fit a little better as a middle name?

Did anyone else catch that?

paulrichjr
08-23-2007, 10:53 AM
You believe that all you want. I'll wait on the empirical proof that it's happened.

I can honestly say that I cannot think of but two trades that he has lost.

Cody Ross to the Marlins
Harris to the D-Rays

Until earlier this year I felt that he lost "The Trade" but now I even felt that he slightly won it. (still appears to some that he lost it after giving away Harris but that is a separate deal) I don't know what proof you are looking for but personally I think the proof is staring you in the face.

Phillips, Arroyo, Keppinger, Ross, Hamilton, Burton are all deals that Wayne made that he easily won at. Easily...

Bray I think will turn out to be another on that list in most eyes by the end of next year.

bucksfan2
08-23-2007, 11:13 AM
I can honestly say that I cannot think of but two trades that he has lost.

Cody Ross to the Marlins
Harris to the D-Rays

Until earlier this year I felt that he lost "The Trade" but now I even felt that he slightly won it. (still appears to some that he lost it after giving away Harris but that is a separate deal) I don't know what proof you are looking for but personally I think the proof is staring you in the face.

Phillips, Arroyo, Keppinger, Ross, Hamilton, Burton are all deals that Wayne made that he easily won at. Easily...

Bray I think will turn out to be another on that list in most eyes by the end of next year.

A lot of people look back and say that the reds lost on the Cody Ross situation. I dont think so. They picked him up for nothing, didn't have room for him, and traded/released him. I looked at his stats and while his avg is ok and his obp is nice they really dont need another player who is going to strike out in 25% of his at bats. As of right now it is basically a debat about whether you would want Hopper or Ross. I would take Hopper because he brings a skill set that the reds are lacking.

Falls City Beer
08-23-2007, 12:10 PM
I can honestly say that I cannot think of but two trades that he has lost.

Cody Ross to the Marlins
Harris to the D-Rays

Until earlier this year I felt that he lost "The Trade" but now I even felt that he slightly won it. (still appears to some that he lost it after giving away Harris but that is a separate deal) I don't know what proof you are looking for but personally I think the proof is staring you in the face.

Phillips, Arroyo, Keppinger, Ross, Hamilton, Burton are all deals that Wayne made that he easily won at. Easily...

Bray I think will turn out to be another on that list in most eyes by the end of next year.

He lost "the trade." Not to rehash, but if the best you get is a middling 7th inning guy (who's injury-prone) for two everyday position players, you've failed. I don't give a damn what those position players do after the trade--they can turn into pumpkins. It's a loss in commodities. Hamilton and Burton were Rule 5 guys, not trades. Ross? Yeah, one good season. Arroyo? I've already said the guy did a great job with that trade; can't argue that; same goes for Phillips.

I and many others, though, are referring to his activity post-Phillips deal. I was on board with the guy up till that point. But really, it's all been treading water or total collapse since the Phillips acquisition.

When it's all said and done, the Reds are an awful team. They are well below .500 in a putrid division. They don't have any movers in the minor leagues that Wayne's brought on board. And they STILL don't have a bullpen, and they STILL need 3/5th of a rotation in order to contend next year--maybe 4/5th if Arroyo continues to slide or his arm falls off(which is likely considering his career trajectory). They are poised right now to do the same thing next season, too. Outside of Burton, the bullpen will have 5 or 6 big question marks.

Wayne simply can't get any traction. And it's his own fault. This is his team--this isn't DanO's team; it's not Bowden's team; it's not Marge Schott's team. It's Wayne's. And it's ugly. Still.

fearofpopvol1
08-23-2007, 12:58 PM
I can honestly say that I cannot think of but two trades that he has lost.

Cody Ross to the Marlins
Harris to the D-Rays

Until earlier this year I felt that he lost "The Trade" but now I even felt that he slightly won it. (still appears to some that he lost it after giving away Harris but that is a separate deal) I don't know what proof you are looking for but personally I think the proof is staring you in the face.

Phillips, Arroyo, Keppinger, Ross, Hamilton, Burton are all deals that Wayne made that he easily won at. Easily...

Bray I think will turn out to be another on that list in most eyes by the end of next year.

In order to get Keppinger, they had to let go of Harris. That's not a bad tradeoff, really.

Sea Ray
08-23-2007, 02:13 PM
When it's all said and done, the Reds are an awful team. They are well below .500 in a putrid division. They don't have any movers in the minor leagues that Wayne's brought on board. And they STILL don't have a bullpen, and they STILL need 3/5th of a rotation in order to contend next year--maybe 4/5th if Arroyo continues to slide or his arm falls off(which is likely considering his career trajectory).

They don't need 3/5th of a rotation to win this division. Look at the morning paper. The top team is playing .516 ball. The Cardinals won it with a similar record last year. This team can win the division with one more starter and one more reliever in 2008 and a decent manager. I think Salmon will contribute to the pen in 2008.

A small market team does need contributions from its farm system. If they get nothing from Bailey, Cueto and friends then it will be a struggle.

Falls City Beer
08-23-2007, 02:17 PM
They don't need 3/5th of a rotation to win this division. Look at the morning paper. The top team is playing .516 ball. The Cardinals won it with a similar record last year. This team can win the division with one more starter and one more reliever in 2008 and a decent manager. I think Salmon will contribute to the pen in 2008.

A small market team does need contributions from its farm system. If they get nothing from Bailey, Cueto and friends then it will be a struggle.


Maybe not 3/5th, but in case you didn't notice, the bottom 3/5 of this rotation has taken us to 15 games under .500 in the worst division in baseball. Time to improve that lot.

nate
08-23-2007, 02:29 PM
they STILL need 3/5th of a rotation in order to contend next year

We have come together, old flattop!

Here come old flattop he come grooving up slowly
He got joo-joo eyeball he one holy roller
He got hair down to his knee
Got to be a joker he just do what he please

Matt700wlw
08-23-2007, 02:59 PM
He lost "the trade."

The only winner in "The Trade" was the Devil Rays.

Really.

Matt700wlw
08-23-2007, 02:59 PM
We have come together, old flattop!

Here come old flattop he come grooving up slowly
He got joo-joo eyeball he one holy roller
He got hair down to his knee
Got to be a joker he just do what he please

What exactly does that song mean or is it jibberish? :)

nate
08-23-2007, 03:06 PM
What exactly does that song mean or is it jibberish? :)

Don't make us feel older than we already are!

nate
08-23-2007, 03:06 PM
The only winner in "The Trade" was the Devil Rays.

Really.

Maybe so far...

Matt700wlw
08-23-2007, 03:13 PM
Maybe so far...

So far is all we can go on... :)

nate
08-23-2007, 03:52 PM
So far is all we can go on... :)

Until later!

TOBTTReds
08-23-2007, 09:32 PM
I think Thom reads RZ. He just called Burton "Levi" for the first time I have heard before. I bet his awarness of his real name came from here.

TOBTTReds
08-23-2007, 09:34 PM
LEVI! Great 8th tonight. He's trying hard to end the 8th inning curse.

TOBTTReds
09-21-2007, 11:07 AM
Bump for use of the word NAILS. After another solid 8th inning yesterday, his era is at 2.36 and an opp. avg of .179.

He's finally getting LH'ers out the way I thought he would as stated in a previous post here.

vs. Left - .135/.324/.212
vs. Right - .204/.275/.258

As he continues to learn to dominate the k zone, those numbers, especially against LH, will only get better.

Since the AS break - 1.62 era, 33.1 ip, 20 h, 6 er, 26 k, 15 bb

He has also pitched better with runners ON base, which is a great attribute for a reliever

none on - .190/.312/.253
runners on - .167/.273/.227

Kudos to you know who on this pick up.

redsmetz
09-21-2007, 11:13 AM
Kudos to you know who on this pick up.

Have we moved WK into the realm of Voldemort?

http://www.harry-potter-games.com/Images/voldemort2.jpg

TOBTTReds
09-21-2007, 11:45 AM
Have we moved WK into the realm of Voldemort?


I just didn't want to start a debate on what good/bad he has done for the team. He is like Marty and Dunn. Mention their name, and it becomes a huge debate of what they do well or don't do well.

redsmetz
09-21-2007, 12:48 PM
I just didn't want to start a debate on what good/bad he has done for the team. He is like Marty and Dunn. Mention their name, and it becomes a huge debate of what they do well or don't do well.

I figured that was it, but any time you can throw in a Harry Potter reference, why pass on it?

RedsManRick
09-21-2007, 01:36 PM
I really like Burton as the fireman of the bullpen.

oneupper
09-21-2007, 01:43 PM
I figured that was it, but any time you can throw in a Harry Potter reference, why pass on it?

So from now on, he shall not be named?

Chip R
09-21-2007, 01:48 PM
He's come quite a way from his first outing.