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The Snow Chief
08-23-2007, 11:26 AM
Partly because of WK's own success (picking up Arroyo, Phillips, and Ross), 2006 was a better than expected season. It caused many Reds fans to become upset at WK for taking a step back this season. It was inevitable. This franchise was one of the most poorly run in all of baseball. If you look at the roster pre-spring training 2006 when WK, that might be one of the most disgusting rosters I have ever seen. Tony Womack was slotted as the starting 2B, we had no idea who was going to be on first base, and we had one legitimate started (Harang).

One the whole, look at the mlb ready players WK has brought in (without paying big FA bucks) versus what he has given up in return.

Brought in:

Hamilton (Rule 5)
Burton (Rule 5)
Bray (trade)
Majewski (trade)
Phillips (trade)
Keppinger (trade)
Arroyo (trade)
Ross (I don't remember)
McBeth (trade)

Given up:

Kearns (trade)
Lopez (trade)
Pena (trade)
Denorfia
some minor league scrap iron like the guys we traded for Keppinger and Phillips

What makes me encouraged is the vast majority of flyers WK has taken on young guys (Hamilton, Bray, Burton, McBeth, Phillips, Keppinger, etc.) have turned out much better than expected while the guys that have been given up have performed below expectations. That tells me that WK and his staff know a little something about player evaluation - both outside the organization and within.

While the bullpen combination of inexperience at one extreme and mopped up veterans at the other has caused this season to be dissappointing, I don't think anyone can look at the Reds as an organization and objectively say it is not MUCH better off than it was 1 1/2 years ago and we did not have to sell the farm in terms of players or long term contract commitments to do it.

I am the first to call for managment/coaching changes if needed. See Bowden, Jim. However, I have to question what anyone who has called for WK to be fired or even seriously considered it knows about the game of baseball.

ThirdBaseCoach
08-23-2007, 11:53 AM
you have made a very strong and accurate statement about WK's skill. how about including Pete as his choice for "interim" manager in his list of accomplishments? Perhaps he should get Pete a contract for 2008 before another team grabs him, which they most certainly will do.

Red in Atl
08-23-2007, 01:18 PM
I have been thinking this way for a bit as well. It's easy to jump on the guy in charge when we have high expectations and nothing to show for it. One problem is as Reds fans, we are literally "starved to death" for a good, playoff contending team.

As Eddie Murphy said playing a starving man eating a saltine, "What is this a Ritz?"

Last years start was an aberration. We hung in till the end in a very weak division. When people got hurt and pitchers showed their true colors, we had no one to step up. Years and years of minor league fodder and poor drafts took their toll.

Wayne has been on the job for a relative short time in the big picture. A team as messed up as the Reds were is going to take more than one season to clean up. As much as I and everyone else HATES IT!

Yes his bullpen woes are monumental. But what can you do when the cupboards are bare? He tried to patch what he could and sometimes things work and sometimes they don't. Unfortunately ball players don't have that tester bar installed like "Duracell batteries" and you don't know when they are out of juice (Cormier, Stanton).

I think the only way to truly tell how good a job Wayne has done will be 3-5 years out and then get a total evaluation of the organization top to bottom. My guess is that we will be in a much better position than the last 7 years. And WK will have had a lot to do with that.

As far as his good moves go, don't forget Hatteberg, a fine replacement for the very popular Casey and Jeff Conine, a great "teacher" in the clubhouse and good trading chip. My guess is also that he's kept Belhorn around only to trade to someone in need (desparate need albeit) like what happened with Conine. Don't forget Belhorn was the starting 2nd baseman for the WC Redsox.

big boy
08-23-2007, 01:44 PM
Given up:

Kearns (trade)
Lopez (trade)
Pena (trade)
Denorfia
some minor league scrap iron like the guys we traded for Keppinger and Phillips


Interesting we don't hear about giving up Germano or Harris anymore now that Germano has lost seven of his last eight decisions and Harris has looked very ordinary.

Vada Pinson Fan
08-23-2007, 02:02 PM
Nice thread Snow Chief! The Reds Mar 21, 2006 traded Bobby Basham to San Diego Padres for David Ross.

Basham's career stats:
Year Age* Lg Tm G GS SH IP H ER HR BB K G/F W L S ERA WHIP
2002 22 A A 13 13 3 87.2 64 16 4 9 97 - 6 4 0 1.64 .837
2003 23 A A 0 1 0 6.2 5 2 0 1 1 - 0 1 0 2.90 .968
2003 23 AA CHA 17 17 0 94.0 133 54 16 24 56 - 5 10 0 5.17 1.670
2004 24 AA CHA 0 0 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 999.99 .000
2005 25 AA CHA 10 10 0 51.3 52 17 5 9 46 - 5 3 0 2.98 1.188
2006 26 AA MOB 2 2 0 9.0 14 5 1 3 5 - 0 1 0 5.00 1.889
2007 27 AA SAN 7 0 0 8.7 26 16 2 3 3 - 0 1 0 16.62 3.346
2007 27 AA MOB 0 0 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 999.99 .000

I thought Basham would have been better. Good trade for Krivsky.

W.Krivsky has done a very good job OVERALL. All things considered. Krivsky needs to probably stay away from his Bowden-like fixation of former Reds that is so similar that WK has for the Twins. Sure the Twins have some great players but doubtful if Ryan turns any of them loose in a trade.

Again, Snow Chief, very nice thread! Also, just keep WK away from 40+ year old relievers that at one time, long ago, had an arm worth signing.

GoReds33
08-23-2007, 02:03 PM
you have made a very strong and accurate statement about WK's skill. how about including Pete as his choice for "interim" manager in his list of accomplishments? Perhaps he should get Pete a contract for 2008 before another team grabs him, which they most certainly will do.We should not have Pete as our manager next year. I like how he manages. He just doesn't command the type of respect of the players that Tony LaRussa does.:)

Muggerd
08-23-2007, 02:07 PM
Pete deserves the job but there are a few I would rather have before him thats for sure.

Vada Pinson Fan
08-23-2007, 02:12 PM
I tried to edit the above post and align the stats but the icon popped up saying you do not have permission to edit this post. Oh well. Sorry.

Vada Pinson Fan
08-23-2007, 02:29 PM
We should not have Pete as our manager next year. I like how he manages. He just doesn't command the type of respect of the players that Tony LaRussa does.:)

Sorry Go Reds, but unless your Smiley Face perhaps implies a "tongue-in-cheek" statement, just ask Scott Rolen how much respect he has for Tony LaRussa. Ask Albert Pujols after LaRussa didn't play him at this year's all-star game in San Francisco how much respect he has "NOW" for LaRussa.

I've read many posts at the Cards forum (with Swamp Turkey as a member, not a LaRussa detractor, I wouldn't say) where many Cards fans over the last three years have had great concerns about LaRussa's managing ability. I know all about LaRussa's lifetime managerial wins, but consider just how lost he was in the 1990 World Series when his heavily favored Oakland A's lost in 4 straight (A's were swept by the Reds!!!) and had no answers to try and get the A's to win at least one game.

Sure, LaRussa would be interesting, to say the least, about becoming the Reds 2008 manager. Maybe the Reds hire Tony for 2008. But give Pete Mackanin credit- he (Pete) has managed way above my expectations after replacing Jerry Narron. LaRussa will undoubtedly take major dollars away from the 2008 payroll if hired. Mackanin won't. You decide. I take my chances on Pete Mackanin for a one year contract to manage the Reds in 2008 and then let's see what Pete M. can do. Of course I don't expect LaRussa to then be available should Mackanin falter in 2008 or be hired (LaRussa) in 2009.

ThirdBaseCoach
08-23-2007, 02:33 PM
We should not have Pete as our manager next year. I like how he manages. He just doesn't command the type of respect of the players that Tony LaRussa does.:)

GoReds,

Here is an example of the respect that Pete has earned from the players. I have many more quotes to support the contention that the players have responded to Pete and will continue to do so in the future.

"The real good thing about Mackanin is that if you sit around and wait to get a guy into the perfect situation, his part of the game, he might sit for five, six or seven games," said Weathers. "By the time it's his time, he's rusty. Pete hasn't done that like it was done earlier in the year."

Pete has gained KGJ's respect as well as Dunn's, BP's, etc. The bullpen has responded well. This is the real deal.

AmarilloRed
08-23-2007, 03:06 PM
He also brought in Maloney, Smit, and Cantu who might help the club in the near future.

DannyB
08-23-2007, 05:29 PM
I can still see D.Ross standing at the plate looking dumbfounded.
I can still see Mike Stanton giving up hits with someone elses runners on base.
I can still see Ryan Freel trying to drive in Adam Dunn.
I can still see The Reds 9-9.5 games out and 10+under .500.
Who gets the blame?

SMcGavin
08-23-2007, 06:00 PM
I can still see D.Ross standing at the plate looking dumbfounded.
I can still see Mike Stanton giving up hits with someone elses runners on base.
I can still see Ryan Freel trying to drive in Adam Dunn.
I can still see The Reds 9-9.5 games out and 10+under .500.
Who gets the blame?

Put it this way... is there any possible way Krivsky could have turned this team into a 2007 contender without spending tens of millions in free agency? As the OP described he has hit some and missed some. Mike Stanton was a terrible idea, but BP, Hamilton and Burton are all pretty good and he gave up nothing to get them. I'm not fully on the WK bandwagon but he's shown me enough to give him some more time. Coming into this situation his first job was to upgrade the overall talent level of this organization, and in my opinion he has done that.

ChatterRed
08-23-2007, 06:08 PM
I agree. WK takes way too much blame for a GM who's been on the job this short of a time. Not to mention how bad this organization was before he took over. This organization was BEYOND BAD.

When you're saddled with big contracts on aging/oft-injured (Junior) players or non-productive players (Milton, Larue).......or you have very little quality trade-bait to make deals..........it is tough to turn a small market team around.

We had very few legit rising stars a few years back........now we have Phillips, Gonzalez, Keppinger, Encarnacion, and Cantu for our infield.........all young players that are either improving or arriving. Some might still be questionable chances......that are still worth taking. We have Hamilton in CF........you can't argue that acquisition.

We have alot of young arms in the bullpen.........and they are growing through the school of hard knocks. But I see some improvement. Most of the problems are with the aging rehab projects. Some worked out for a short while though......like Guardado last season.

Way too early to write WK off.

Screwball
08-23-2007, 07:13 PM
Wow, what a difference a manager can make. Krivsky was getting absolutely destroyed on these very boards (I've been guilty of it myself) no more than a couple months ago. Yet, now the Reds have started playing some good ball (with mostly the same players) under Mackanin, and there's a thread started praising Kriv where just about everybody agrees. :eek:

Krivsky has been described as the "Kyle Lohse of Gms". When he's going good, there's nobody better (Hamilton, Phillips, Burton, etc. for little to nothing). When he's off, he misses badly (passed on Lincecum, bullpen, inconsistent SP, etc.). Personally, I like him too, but I'd like him a helluva lot more if he was able to construct an effective bullpen for 2008 and beyond.

podgejeff_
08-23-2007, 07:36 PM
But can you totally blame WK for passing on Lincecum? He's not the guy in charge of the draft, is he?

Screwball
08-23-2007, 08:13 PM
But can you totally blame WK for passing on Lincecum? He's not the guy in charge of the draft, is he?

I'm almost positive the General Manager is in charge of the final decision on who gets drafted. Perhaps he was given bad information by his scouts and player development people, but he's the one that determines whom the Reds draft.

SMcGavin
08-23-2007, 09:42 PM
Personally, I like him too, but I'd like him a helluva lot more if he was able to construct an effective bullpen for 2008 and beyond.

Have to agree here, a LOT of Wayne's moves since taking over have been aimed at the bullpen (Bray, Majewski, Stanton, Cormier, Burton, McBeth, EddieG). They are showing the signs now with Bray-Burton-Weathers, next year it's time for all the moves to pay off.

The Snow Chief
08-24-2007, 12:21 AM
I can still see D.Ross standing at the plate looking dumbfounded.
I can still see Mike Stanton giving up hits with someone elses runners on base.
I can still see Ryan Freel trying to drive in Adam Dunn.
I can still see The Reds 9-9.5 games out and 10+under .500.
Who gets the blame?

Some people are amazing. Look at the Reds roster a year and a half ago and you would see a hell of alot worse than that. Rome was not built in a day. There is still a long way to go.

There are WK moves I don't like: Stanton, extending Freel, Cormier trade, etc. However, on the whole, I like most of the moves and this organization is improving from the farm system up.

If you think a team on the smaller end of the baseball market can go from one of the organizations in the worst shape in the league (which it was) to a serious contender in a year and a half then I would suggest that you know very little about the business of baseball as it exists under the current collective bargainning agreement.

dougflynn23
08-24-2007, 02:02 AM
:confused: You have to give WK credit for some very fortuitous moves as noted above. He has done a good job in most cases, but I will still ding him terribly for signing and/or trading for 2 seperate 40+ year old LH relievers with guaranteed contracts that have been or will need to be eaten.

He will be here for 2008 along with Pete Mackanin.

Jay Bruce
08-24-2007, 04:16 AM
While I found it questionable to trade for or sign the likes of Stanton, Cormier, etc, I didn't completely hate them. I have always assumed that Krivsky was signing these players because the Reds minor league system was not showing any signs of producing major league relievers in the short term. So, Krivsky signed some veteran relievers to short term deals to give some minor leaguers time to develop, while also having the ability to trade these veterans when replacements were ready. While the relievers he has targetted have been questionable at best, at least he has not given them franchise crippling deals

DannyB
08-24-2007, 07:25 AM
Some people are amazing. Look at the Reds roster a year and a half ago and you would see a hell of alot worse than that. Rome was not built in a day. There is still a long way to go.

There are WK moves I don't like: Stanton, extending Freel, Cormier trade, etc. However, on the whole, I like most of the moves and this organization is improving from the farm system up.

If you think a team on the smaller end of the baseball market can go from one of the organizations in the worst shape in the league (which it was) to a serious contender in a year and a half then I would suggest that you know very little about the business of baseball as it exists under the current collective bargainning agreement.

Yes. I am amazing.

I may not know much about the business of baseball but I know most of the players that are making this team win were in the orginazation at the beginning of the season.

The Snow Chief
08-24-2007, 08:40 AM
Yes. I am amazing.

I may not know much about the business of baseball but I know most of the players that are making this team win were in the orginazation at the beginning of the season.

We don't have the Yankees' checkbook, or even the Cubs'. Not even close to those. If we are going to go to being a contender from an absolute garbage organization, it is going to take significantly longer than a year and a half. I want to win now as much as you do. 1990, 1995, or even 1999 seem like centuries ago.

If you want to blame someone for the current state of the Reds, you have to blame Jim Bowden for not taking care of the farm system while he was here. A team like the Reds cannot win without getting the majority of their players from their farm systems because those are the players they can control and pay at or below market rates. Krivsky has done a good job trying to make up for the bad farm system by going out and getting diamonds in the rough that other organizations did not want - Phillips, Keppinger, Hamilton, and Burton.

Absent the Reds going to a 9-figure payroll, being a contender is just going to take some time. I know that is what we have heard before, but there is a difference between sucking and rebuilding. We have not rebuilt this decade, we have just sucked. Krivsky is trying to turn that around but it can't happen overnight - not in a smaller market like this one.

ChatterRed
08-24-2007, 09:32 AM
It was explained to me by someone in the Reds organization that the signing of the older bullpen pitchers served several purposes:

1. Stop-gap until the younger arms are ready
2. If you catch lightning in a bottle, you have somebody to trade at the deadline for more prospects. The Reds are hurting by not having much trade-bait.

ChatterRed
08-27-2007, 05:49 PM
A little over a year and half on the job and I think he's done a pretty decent job, all things considering.

1. Traded Willy Mo for Arroyo. Reds got the better end of that deal.
2. Picked up Brandon Phillips - already one of the best 2B in MLB including hitting with power and good defense
3. Got rid of Larue and picked up David Ross. Ross has struggled in terms of BA this year, but his defense and power numbers are still decent. May not be the long term answer at catcher, but an upgrade over Larue.
4. Got rid of overrated Kearns and Lopez. Filled their spots with...
5. Traded for Josh Hamilton. Not even debatable.
6. Signed Alex Gonzalez - an equal or upgrade over Lopez.
7. Signed Jeff Keppinger to a minor league deal. Currently ripping the hide off the ball in the major leagues.
8. Signed Harang and Arroyo to extensions.
9. Acquired Bray and Majewski in a controversial trade. Still remains to be seen how it turns out.....but both are currently pitching their best ball since they were obtained......and both were injured at times since we acquired them.
10. Jared Burton - need I say more.
11. Eddie Guardado - last season - filled the bill until his arm fell off.
12 Acquired Cantu - remains to be seen. But new scenery so far has paid off.

Anything I missed?

I know he's had a few miscues such as Cormier and Stanton. Maybe I missed others. Lohse really didn't hurt us.

His stop gap signings like Hatteberg and Conine didn't hurt us either.

We still have our prized possessions in EE, Votto, Bruce, Cueto, and Bailey.

Young bullpen is starting to figure things out and perform.

Checklist:
1. Needs to find a 3,4,5th starter
2. Needs to possibly bolster the bullpen, although it's starting to take form.
3. 1B needs to be addressed somehow.

ThirdBaseCoach
08-27-2007, 05:58 PM
with your summary, WK looks like a pretty talented GM.

improbus
08-27-2007, 07:56 PM
Last year, he turned the Reds greatest weakness into their greatest strength. People forget just how good Guardado and Schoeneweis were last year. Things went poorly this year with the bullpen, but no one can remake a bullpen twice. Not in todays market. If Bruton, the Magic Man, and Bray pitched like this at the beginning of the season, the Reds would be right in the thick of the playoff race. Not too bad.

Muggerd
08-27-2007, 08:13 PM
Wayne has been awful with the way he handles the small moves but at the end of the day they normally turn out positive.

Chi-Town Red
08-27-2007, 09:14 PM
sign Dunn long term and i would say a very successful season

Doro
08-27-2007, 09:31 PM
I like him as well. Definately compared to our past GMs that just didnt get "it". Krivsky definately understands how to build a winner but unfortunately has taken a lot of heat for trading two fan favorites. I was a Kearns fan but definately understood that every team has an outfielder just like him.

Fullboat
08-27-2007, 10:59 PM
I think he is doing a great job.:thumbup:

Rome was not built in a day and for all you naysayers
it wasn't destroyed in a day either.

ChatterRed
08-27-2007, 11:35 PM
Exactly. He's been the GM of the Reds for just over a season and a half. I think he has done a good job in a short time period.

HokieRed
08-28-2007, 12:49 AM
I've not been a Wayne Krivsky fan, but I'm starting to like what he's done more and more. The team has certainly begun to look really good and the organizational depth is much better. I see no reason not to keep Pete MacKanin; the guy's done a fantastic job and I doubt we'll do any better. If we don't hire him, somebody surely will. There are still some serious mistakes in the Krivsky record: he got less than value for Germano, Harris, C. Ross, and Hancock. (I don't understand the knocks on this board of Justin Germano; he's been a solid #4 starter on a team that will likely either win its division or be the wild card) He's gotten himself tied up contractually with people like Cormier, Stanton, Castro etc. He brought in a succession of pitchers last year who had no chance of success and he stayed with Jerry Narron too long. Also, the greatest part of the strength in the minor leagues is still due to Dan O'Brien's drafting, not Krivsky's. But the additions of Arroyo, Hamilton, Phillips, Hatteberg, Gonzalez, Keppinger, Burton, Majewski, Bray, Coutlangus are starting to pay off. Right now this is the best looking Reds team in recent memory.

Carolina Red
08-28-2007, 03:03 PM
Krivsky has done a terrific job since taking over. The Reds are a much better ball club now than 2 years ago. He has brought in some great position players and tied the two best pitchers we have up long term for peanuts compared to what they would have brought as FA's. He has had a few hiccps along the way, especially with pitching. Name me one GM who makes all the perfect personnel desicions. The fact of the matter is he was trying to make the team better with the money he had to work with. When it comes to pitching it's hard to get really good pitching without either giving up a lot or or paying more than they are really worth (like Zambrano). The fact of the matter is is that the Reds are only 6.5 games out with over a month left this year and the future (Phillips, Hamilton, etc.) looks brighter than it has for the Reds in 10 years. Most of the reason is because of things Wayne Krivsky has done. And he's not done yet.

jimbo
08-28-2007, 04:20 PM
(I don't understand the knocks on this board of Justin Germano; he's been a solid #4 starter on a team that will likely either win its division or be the wild card)

He was solid early for a few starts, but has been steadily coming back to earth since then. He has only made it out of the 5th inning 2 out of his last 9 starts and his ERA is still climbing.

I think the knocks on him are legit, and too many are basing their positive opinion of him on only a small number of starts. He stuff has always been average, at best, and he'll most likely never be more than a back of the rotation/AAA starter.

HokieRed
08-28-2007, 09:33 PM
And we're just loaded with guys who are better than "back of the rotation" starters!

jimbo
08-28-2007, 11:24 PM
And we're just loaded with guys who are better than "back of the rotation" starters!

Shearn, EZ, Gosling, Belisle, Livingston (until he got hurt), etc. All of the same mold and who fill the same role, or can.

The Snow Chief
08-29-2007, 12:21 AM
If selling Justin Germano too cheaply is the biggest gripe, then I think you're doing okay as a GM. I hated the Germano/Cormier trade then and now. However, Germano is a back of the rotation guy at best. I think WK thinks we have plenty of those and is looking at future 1-4 of Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Cueto.

Gary Redus
08-30-2007, 11:21 AM
I tend to agree with the Chief - on balance at the end of the day, Wayne Krivsky has done a nice job. My biggest gripes are the handling of Homer Bailey and signing Stanton to a multi-year contract. I'd like to see Dunn signed long term and then address the rotation problem in the off season but he's done a nice job. Remember this is real baseball with real limitations, it is not a video game.

AmarilloRed
08-30-2007, 04:21 PM
I believe Narron was behind calling up Homer. I agree on Stanton.

AmarilloRed
08-31-2007, 03:27 AM
Wayne is also responsible for Ellison.:confused:

Maldez
08-31-2007, 09:46 AM
Brandon Phillips
Scott Hamilton
Bronson Arroyo
Jeff Keppinger
Jorge Cantu

The Brandon Phillips and Scott Hamilton pickups alone should have made him GM of the Year. Krivsky has the best eye for talent in baseball.

Muggerd
08-31-2007, 10:09 AM
Wayne is also responsible for Ellison.:confused:

I dont see anything wrong with bringing in a guy to be the 5th OF.

HokieRed
08-31-2007, 11:40 PM
Anybody for having Justin Germano take Tom Shearn's next start?

GoReds33
08-31-2007, 11:44 PM
Anybody for having Justin Germano take Tom Shearn's next start?LOL. I hope you were joking. I wish.:)

Degenerate39
09-03-2007, 11:21 AM
Brandon Phillips
Scott Hamilton
Bronson Arroyo
Jeff Keppinger
Jorge Cantu

The Brandon Phillips and Scott Hamilton pickups alone should have made him GM of the Year. Krivsky has the best eye for talent in baseball.

Whose Scott Hamilton :D

AmarilloRed
09-03-2007, 02:11 PM
He has a good eye in picking up talent. I simply wish he could learn to not overpay for marginal talent. He gave Juan Castro a 2 year deal, and Mike Stanton a 2 year deal with an option for a third.

GoReds33
09-03-2007, 02:14 PM
He has a good eye in picking up talent. I simply wish he could learn to not overpay for marginal talent. He gave Juan Castro a 2 year deal, and Mike Stanton a 2 year deal with an option for a third.I agree. Remember that the reason Stanton signed with the Reds was that we were the only team to guarantee a second year.

HokieRed
09-03-2007, 03:55 PM
Sorry to intrude on the Krivsky love fest. Here's the case, in short, against Wayne Krivsky. The team has no more starting pitching right now than it did at the beginning of this season. He's made some great acquisitions--no doubt--but they are not of much value when we don't have enough starting pitching to keep us in games. Too many posters on RZ--IMHO--undervalue back of the rotation starters. There is an absolute difference between Justin Germano, on the one hand, and Phil Dumatrait, Tom Shearn, EZ (whom I actually still have a lot of hope for). Germano is going to keep you in a lot more games. So that's the first part of the case against Krivsky. The second is on passing Tim Lincecum to take a guy who, at best, is only going to be slightly better than a number of other players you already have in the system. This is not a knock on Stubbs, and I don't think GM's should be faulted for passing on guys--usually. But passing on Lincecum to take an outfielder suggests Krivsky failed to assess the team's weaknesses and he failed to understand the market economics of today--because it is going to be very expensive to replace what Germano and Lincecum would give a club.
Starting rotation right now with better assessment of the ballclub: Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Germano, Lincecum, with Bailey and Cueto developing.
What's it going to cost for next season to get what Germano and Lincecum would give the ballclub--15-20 million dollars conservatively.

redsupport
09-03-2007, 04:00 PM
letting griffey continually play the outfield costs the team infinite runs

GoReds33
09-03-2007, 04:00 PM
Sorry to intrude on the Krivsky love fest. Here's the case, in short, against Wayne Krivsky. The team has no more starting pitching right now than it did at the beginning of this season. He's made some great acquisitions--no doubt--but they are not of much value when we don't have enough starting pitching to keep us in games. Too many posters on RZ--IMHO--undervalue back of the rotation starters. There is an absolute difference between Justin Germano, on the one hand, and Phil Dumatrait, Tom Shearn, EZ (whom I actually still have a lot of hope for). Germano is going to keep you in a lot more games. So that's the first part of the case against Krivsky. The second is on passing Tim Lincecum to take a guy who, at best, is only going to be slightly better than a number of other players you already have in the system. This is not a knock on Stubbs, and I don't think GM's should be faulted for passing on guys--usually. But passing on Lincecum to take an outfielder suggests Krivsky failed to assess the team's weaknesses and he failed to understand the market economics of today--because it is going to be very expensive to replace what Germano and Lincecum would give a club.
Starting rotation right now with better assessment of the ballclub: Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Germano, Lincecum, with Bailey and Cueto developing.
What's it going to cost for next season to get what Germano and Lincecum would give the ballclub--15-20 million dollars conservatively.
I don't know if you can put a value on Lincecum. I agree that pick was stupid. I also think that EZ still can pitch pretty well. I think he would have been the number 3 pitcher in the rotation this year had he not of gotten hurt.

AmarilloRed
09-03-2007, 04:15 PM
He does some things well, and he will make some mistakes. He does a good job of picking up talented prospects, but he overpays for marginal players. He made a mistake by not picking up any starting pitchers in the off-season next year, and he over-rated the quality of our starting pitching last year. That being said, our minor league system is in better condition than when he arrived, and I think the 25 man roster is also better. I would give him 1 or 2 more years, and see where the team is next year.

GoReds33
09-03-2007, 04:59 PM
He does some things well, and he will make some mistakes. He does a good job of picking up talented prospects, but he overpays for marginal players. He made a mistake by not picking up any starting pitchers in the off-season next year, and he over-rated the quality of our starting pitching last year. That being said, our minor league system is in better condition than when he arrived, and I think the 25 man roster is also better. I would give him 1 or 2 more years, and see where the team is next year.I love how he picked up a few pitcers that add depth at the top. I love the aquisitions or McBeth, Livingston, and Maloney. I agree this system is in much better shape.:)

HokieRed
09-03-2007, 07:42 PM
Quality of the big league club is as good as the starting pitching. We began 2007 with Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, Belisle and the hope of Bailey stepping in big time. Lohse is gone, Belisle is marginal as a starter, Bailey made very little progress, Livingston has what may well be a career ending injury. Without major additions over the winter, we'll be worse next year than this year. I agree the minor league system is a lot better than when Bowden left. Whether Krivsky's two drafts are as productive as O'Brien's is still pretty doubtful.

redsfanmia
09-03-2007, 07:47 PM
Whose Scott Hamilton :D

When did he switch from figure skating? Isnt he a little long in the tooth? He might fit in with the bullpen.

redsfanmia
09-03-2007, 07:50 PM
I agree this system is in much better shape.:)

Thanks to DanO. If he was still here our minor league system would be much better than it is now. The Boss should have retained his services for a few more years to build the system.

UK Reds Fan
09-03-2007, 10:39 PM
Hard to call on the starting pitching...it was awful when Krivs got here and is still pretty bad, but we do have an additional arm in Arroyo and one less softball player (Pena) on our roster.

When Krivs got here we were looking at Harang, Milton, Dave Williams, Brandon Claussen, Paul Wilson, Luke Hudson or Ramon Ortiz.

We still are terrible in spots 3-5, but Arroyo is a definite upgrade over anyone other than Harang that we had before Krivs.

Secondly, our BP has been terrible but a future is in motion that should be an upgrade over the past few years. Burton and Bray are arms that weren 't around before. Coutlangus, is another solid looking BP. McBeth could be another bright spot as well.

I'll agree the Castro deal was a one-team bidding against itself. Cormier, Stanton and extended Coffee have not panned out...hopefully we get out of the Eddie G sweepstakes...but the talent level is increasing.

I'm not a big fan of the continued drafting of position players when we must have pitchers....Lincecum and Porcello were probably way more needed than Stubbs and Mesorasco...but you can't deny the amount of sluggers in the pipeline...Votto, Bruce were here when Krivs took over, but Warring, Turner, Francisco, Frazier, Stubbs rebounded nicely last 2 months of season, among others is some nice options. Hopefully Watson, Thompson and Maloney come thru to give depth in the rotation.

kaldaniels
09-03-2007, 10:43 PM
Quality of the big league club is as good as the starting pitching. We began 2007 with Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, Belisle and the hope of Bailey stepping in big time. Lohse is gone, Belisle is marginal as a starter, Bailey made very little progress, Livingston has what may well be a career ending injury. Without major additions over the winter, we'll be worse next year than this year. I agree the minor league system is a lot better than when Bowden left. Whether Krivsky's two drafts are as productive as O'Brien's is still pretty doubtful.

OK...timeout. Are you suggesting that if we had Loshe right now, WK would be viewed better in your eyes??? Loshe was going to be traded in July if the Reds weren't in it. Done deal. Bailey was hurt. Bobby got hurt. Belisle is lurking around. Thats some bad luck there. So what if WK didn't improve the starting pitching from April 1 until today...what could he have done and what means did he have to improve the rotation...short of getting ripped off in a deal just to "improve the starters". That is a question you need to be able to come close to answering before ripping WK for this. To even throw Loshe into the argument against WK is prepostourus. Every team in the majors, no team excluded, could upgrade their starting rotation by adding a simply average starter, hence, every team is trying to get another one...its not as easy as you make it sound. I understand the reasoning of some WK dissenters, but to get on him because the rotation is worse now than in April is ridiculous. :thumbdown

HokieRed
09-03-2007, 11:51 PM
I wasn't making any specific point about Lohse. I was comparing what we had at the beginning of 2007 with what we have right now. Kyle Lohse has about a 4.50 ERA this year and will pitch very close to 200 innings. He has to be replaced. It's as simple as that. Justin Germano will throw 150 plus innings this year with an ERA that will come in well under 5.00 corrected for GABP. That's something also that we don't have because Krivsky gave him away for a 41 year old reliever, whom he then gave a ridiculous contract to. My point is just that right now the starting pitching is no better than it was at beginning of 2007, and, with the Livingston injury and Bailey's not making much progress, it's in really bad shape. If the rotation is worse now than in April, who would you get on if not the GM who is paid to improve the ballclub? By the way, Kyle Lohse will get a multiple year contract worth at least 8 million a year this offseason. He's way underappreciated on RZ. He's a proven major league starter who can be penciled in at the beginning of the season for nearly 200 innings. It's a huge mistake not to differentiate between somebody like Lohse and Shearn, Dumatrait, Livingston, EZ and the rest of the list of hopefuls.

AmarilloRed
09-03-2007, 11:59 PM
The starting pitching might be much better next year. I would expect to see Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney all get chances to start at some point in 2008, and they should all be better than those currently in the 3 to 5 slots in the rotation. It is also possible but unlikely we could have Livingston back, but he might not be completely healthy until 2009. Still, I would like to see us acquire at least one FA starter in the off-season. Wayne made a mistake when he did not upgrade the SP last off-season.

kaldaniels
09-04-2007, 12:33 AM
I wasn't making any specific point about Lohse. I was comparing what we had at the beginning of 2007 with what we have right now. Kyle Lohse has about a 4.50 ERA this year and will pitch very close to 200 innings. He has to be replaced. It's as simple as that. Justin Germano will throw 150 plus innings this year with an ERA that will come in well under 5.00 corrected for GABP. That's something also that we don't have because Krivsky gave him away for a 41 year old reliever, whom he then gave a ridiculous contract to. My point is just that right now the starting pitching is no better than it was at beginning of 2007, and, with the Livingston injury and Bailey's not making much progress, it's in really bad shape. If the rotation is worse now than in April, who would you get on if not the GM who is paid to improve the ballclub? By the way, Kyle Lohse will get a multiple year contract worth at least 8 million a year this offseason. He's way underappreciated on RZ. He's a proven major league starter who can be penciled in at the beginning of the season for nearly 200 innings. It's a huge mistake not to differentiate between somebody like Lohse and Shearn, Dumatrait, Livingston, EZ and the rest of the list of hopefuls.

Your case against Krivsky, as anyone in here that scrolls up can read, is that the rotation is worse off now than in April. We all will agree on that. I'd like to know what he should have done, being that starting pitching is such a premium.

You did bring up Loshe though to supplement your argument...but it was a move in here 99 percent of the people would agree with.

My question to you was...was what should WK have done.

Just because tranactions (that had to be done) were done and injuries occured between point A and B (5 months) that weakened the staff, we do not need to call for WK's head.

Your argument comes down to the bottom 3 of the rotation.

Loshe - had to be traded (or re-signed) we knew that the day we traded for him.

Milton - this was a pitcher in your better April staff. I would argue WK did a nice job of replacing him with Livingston. You now seem to hold his freak injury as a knock on WK.

Belisle - Still here. Struggling. That's not WK's doing.

Again...starting pitchers are not something that you pluck out of thin air. I'd say a good GM with an average payroll would be able to add/sign 1 rotation quality starter a year. You gave Wayne 5 months to turn the staff around, coupled with a freak injury and a struggling phenom. He deserves more time on this issue.

AmarilloRed
09-04-2007, 01:46 AM
Your case against Krivsky, as anyone in here that scrolls up can read, is that the rotation is worse off now than in April. We all will agree on that. I'd like to know what he should have done, being that starting pitching is such a premium.

You did bring up Loshe though to supplement your argument...but it was a move in here 99 percent of the people would agree with.

My question to you was...was what should WK have done.

Just because tranactions (that had to be done) were done and injuries occured between point A and B (5 months) that weakened the staff, we do not need to call for WK's head.

Your argument comes down to the bottom 3 of the rotation.

Loshe - had to be traded (or re-signed) we knew that the day we traded for him.

Milton - this was a pitcher in your better April staff. I would argue WK did a nice job of replacing him with Livingston. You now seem to hold his freak injury as a knock on WK.

Belisle - Still here. Struggling. That's not WK's doing.

Again...starting pitchers are not something that you pluck out of thin air. I'd say a good GM with an average payroll would be able to add/sign 1 rotation quality starter a year. You gave Wayne 5 months to turn the staff around, coupled with a freak injury and a struggling phenom. He deserves more time on this issue.

I will try and answer it, though your question was not addressed to me. He might have tried to sign a starting pitcher in the off-season, instead of keeping the starting pitchers we had at the end of 2006. He seemed satisfied that the ones we had would be good enough to compete in the NL Central. I do hope he will rectify that oversight, and work on signing some FA starters in this off-season, as it will be very important if we hope to be competitive next year.

kaldaniels
09-04-2007, 01:51 AM
I will try and answer it, though your question was not addressed to me. He might have tried to sign a starting pitcher in the off-season, instead of keeping the starting pitchers we had at the end of 2006. He seemed satisfied that the ones we had would be good enough to compete in the NL Central. I do hope he will rectify that oversight, and work on signing some FA starters in this off-season, as it will be very important if we hope to be competitive next year.

Cool. However Hokie's statement was...

"Sorry to intrude on the Krivsky love fest. Here's the case, in short, against Wayne Krivsky. The team has no more starting pitching right now than it did at the beginning of this season"

My reply was...what could Wayne have done since April to have the staff in better shape than it is today???

AmarilloRed
09-04-2007, 02:02 AM
I see. Your question was about what he could have done since April; I only saw what he could have done to improve the staff. He has made marginal moves to improve the starting pitching since April in picking up Smit and Maloney. They will not help immediately but they could be MLB starters in the future. Another thing he might have done to improve the bullpen is keep players like Marcus McBeth, Brad Salmon, and some of the others who have been in AAA. They could have been performing on the MLB roster instead of sending them down to Louisville. He has an inclination toward keeping older players on the roster, and one day that will hurt him.

HokieRed
09-04-2007, 01:58 PM
I'll tell you exactly what he should have done, only it was to be done in 2006, not in 2007. He should not have traded Justin Germano and he should have drafted Tim Lincecum. I assume he did neither of those things because he has not identified starting pitching as the team's greatest weakness (even greater than the wretched bullpen). That he has not taken the problems in the starting pitching seriously enough seems to be further suggested by the fact the rotation is in worse shape now than it was in April. I like the Lohse for Maloney deal a lot. But the fact remains we go into next year with two reliable starting pitchers, one marginal one, and a lot of talented hopefuls. That is, unless he makes a free agent move this winter, which will probably result in paying very highly for a 3rd or 4th starter.

AmarilloRed
09-04-2007, 02:07 PM
In any case, it can be said that the relief pitching will be a lot better at the end of 2007 than it was at the end of 2006. Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney may be able to help the starting rotation at some point in 2008; but it is best to not count on them. We really need to try and get some SP free agents in the off-season; the problem is, the market will be really weak and they may not be worth what we pay for them. I would imagine Wayne Krivsky will try and make a trade for SP in the off-season. That may be better than going the FA route.

GoReds33
09-04-2007, 03:56 PM
This team is in much better shape than it was with Bowden or Dan-O. Even though I cringe now every time I hear the Reds made a trade, the team is much better. We have an influx of minor league talent. We have more depth, and more role players, and players to add energy to the club.

HokieRed
09-04-2007, 08:43 PM
Earl Weaver used to say that momentum is the next day's starting pitcher. The team will be as good as its starting pitching. The organization may be better, we may have more good role players etc., but none of that will mean anything without better starting pitching.