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Kc61
08-23-2007, 01:23 PM
Some ideas for the Reds. Many will be unpopular. I'm not wedded to them, just thoughts for now.

1. Sign Dunn long term if possible. Guy has convinced me. He is having a terrific season. Jacoby's influence, or maybe just maturity, really have helped. If he declines you can drop him down to 6th in the order. He is making steadier contact, has become a better hitter.

2. After 600, try to move Griffey. Jay Bruce is the heir apparent to right field. Griffey's salary will be a luxury when Jay is ready, presumably early next season.

3. Trade EE and Votto for pitching. Don't yell. It is hard to get good young pitching for high salaried players. Teams may be more willing to give up good young hurlers for younger guys like EE and Votto. In the case of Votto, Reds are overly lefthanded, they can go (for now) with Hatteberg and Cantu platoon. Eventually, install a righty bat, maybe Cantu alone at first or possibly someone like Todd Frazier can play there. As for EE, see number 4.

4. Install Keppinger at third base. A gamble for sure. JK may well come back to the pack if a regular. But a gamble worth taking if EE brings pitching in a deal. Reds need high OBP, table setter types, players like Kepp can be very valuable. Doesn't have EE's upside, but if pitching improves this trade-off still could work out. Freel can back up third and elsewhere. Some young third sackers on the farm could eventually take over.

5. Decline Guardado option, but re-sign for less $$ plus incentives. Guy is such a tremendous reliever, would hate to give up on him. (Also would hate to give him $3.5 mill next year.) Didn't expect much right after surgery, but would like to see him in a Reds uni next year, after a meaningful recup period. If healthy, can be a Weathers/Bray/Burton/Guardado late innings pen with competition for the middle/early roles among Maj, Coffey, Cout, McBeth, Salmon, Stanton, based on spring performance.

6. Keep Weathers one more year. Guy is tremendous. If he declines, move him to middle relief. You'll never get equal value in a deal.

7. Get another veteran starter. Next off-season, must get a third starter in a deal. Reds team has a lot of possibles for the pen, but the rotation is very weak after Har/Arroyo. I can live with Livingston or Belisle as a fifth starter (skipped occasionally). I can live with a youngster, likely Homer, as a fourth starter next year. But there must be another solid vet or the team goes no place.

bucksfan2
08-23-2007, 01:57 PM
1. I agree but I think that either Dunn or Griffey have to go this offseason. I would hate to see either move but this club would be in better shape if one would go.

3. I trade EE not Votto. This organizatoin has been so prospect starved for such a long time that you have to let Votto come up as a red and see what he can do. If the reds trade him we will get daily maybe even hourly updates on his progress on RZ. I am all for moving EE. I haven't lost faith with EE I just think he is losing his position to Keppinger and his high strike outs dont bode well for him.

4. I agree. This guy has earned a spot to play next year. I think a lot of people are waiting for him to fall and are hesitant on giving him a full time position. I am not worried about him. He may be hot but I think his hitting style is need on this reds team.

5. I would like to see Guardado back next season. No matter how it is done I think he can be an asset to this team. He will never have the stuff he once had but David Weathers doesn't have the stuff he once had either.

6. I keep Weathers but try and trade him during the year. His value will start to diminish soon and I would like to see the reds get good value for him.

7. There isn't a whole lot of starting pitching out there. The market is so bad that Lohse was recently listed as the 4th best FA this offseason. The only guy I would like to see the reds make a run at is Jennings. I know he is having a bad season but he had a few impressive ones in colorado.

- I would also like to see this organizatoin cut ties with Coffey, Freel, Hatty, Santos, and Stanton. I think Coffey needs a change of scenery and I don't wan't to see him ride the bus from Cincy to Louisville over and over again. Freel has shown that he isn't durable and Hopper is a better replacement for Freel. Hatty has been a good player and will be cheap next year but let Votto play. Santos and Stanton really have no buisness being with this club next season. The only reason I would retain Stanton is to hope he regains some form.

Kc61
08-23-2007, 01:59 PM
1. I agree but I think that either Dunn or Griffey have to go this offseason. I would hate to see either move but this club would be in better shape if one would go.

3. I trade EE not Votto. This organizatoin has been so prospect starved for such a long time that you have to let Votto come up as a red and see what he can do. If the reds trade him we will get daily maybe even hourly updates on his progress on RZ. I am all for moving EE. I haven't lost faith with EE I just think he is losing his position to Keppinger and his high strike outs dont bode well for him.

4. I agree. This guy has earned a spot to play next year. I think a lot of people are waiting for him to fall and are hesitant on giving him a full time position. I am not worried about him. He may be hot but I think his hitting style is need on this reds team.

5. I would like to see Guardado back next season. No matter how it is done I think he can be an asset to this team. He will never have the stuff he once had but David Weathers doesn't have the stuff he once had either.

6. I keep Weathers but try and trade him during the year. His value will start to diminish soon and I would like to see the reds get good value for him.

7. There isn't a whole lot of starting pitching out there. The market is so bad that Lohse was recently listed as the 4th best FA this offseason. The only guy I would like to see the reds make a run at is Jennings. I know he is having a bad season but he had a few impressive ones in colorado.

- I would also like to see this organizatoin cut ties with Coffey, Freel, Hatty, Santos, and Stanton. I think Coffey needs a change of scenery and I don't wan't to see him ride the bus from Cincy to Louisville over and over again. Freel has shown that he isn't durable and Hopper is a better replacement for Freel. Hatty has been a good player and will be cheap next year but let Votto play. Santos and Stanton really have no buisness being with this club next season. The only reason I would retain Stanton is to hope he regains some form.

Thanks for your comments. I wonder, though, about Coffey. He was overused so heavily this April/May, perhaps he gain re-gain his form after an off-season of rest.

Sea Ray
08-23-2007, 02:03 PM
1) I don't see how Dunn's 2007 varies from his past 5 yrs. He's still striking out like crazy; he's still very powerful.

2) Agreed

3) I'd shop them for pitching but you'll still have to get lucky to pry good pitching from an organization. Maybe Detroit would work. They have a lot of young powerful arms and Votto at 1B would be a great fit for them

4) I could live with Kepp at 3B or SS. I want him in the lineup a lot for the reasons you ennumerated

5) I disagree he's a tremendous reliever but I'd take him back at $500,000 plus incentives. That said I think he's got a less than 50:50 chance of becoming a back of the bullpen reliever. Prove me wrong Eddie

6) Agreed

7) Agreed

Kc61
08-23-2007, 02:23 PM
[QUOTE=Sea Ray;1449196]1) I don't see how Dunn's 2007 varies from his past 5 yrs. He's still striking out like crazy; he's still very powerful.

Dunn's 2006 reflected an overall decline in performance. This year, his BA is .30 points higher and OPS is .75 points higher than last. This is significantly better.

bucksfan2
08-23-2007, 03:54 PM
Thanks for your comments. I wonder, though, about Coffey. He was overused so heavily this April/May, perhaps he gain re-gain his form after an off-season of rest.

Here is what I see in Coffey. This is a guy who has a good fastball but it sits at a certain speed. He has had a few very effective months but those have all been early in the year. You can take that two ways. Either he is effective because he is fresh and then tires as the season goes on or that he is successful in the months where the pitchers have an advantage. When the weather is cooler and the season is fresher the pitcher has an advantage over the batter. Some things cause concerns for me with Coffey. First of all is his weight. He came into camp fat saying that he wanted a second chance at being the closer. First of all if you want to be a closer you need to come into camp fresh and in the best shape of your life. One final thing about him that concerns me is that in his trips to AAA he has come back to the bigs and not changed the way he pitches. He has not worked to develop a second good pitch. He hasn't approached the batters any differently. There are only a few pitchers in the game that can get by with one pitch. One is Rivera who has one of the nastiest cut fastballs in the history of baseball and others who can touch 100 mph. A 93-94 fastball coming out of the pen is just an ordinary pitch especially considering that you can't disguise it with anything else.

Does Coffey have potential, sure, it is bothers me that he has been sent down to AAA twice now and has been ineffective for the entire year but continues to pitch the same way.

Sea Ray
08-23-2007, 03:56 PM
[QUOTE=Sea Ray;1449196]1) I don't see how Dunn's 2007 varies from his past 5 yrs. He's still striking out like crazy; he's still very powerful.

Dunn's 2006 reflected an overall decline in performance. This year, his BA is .30 points higher and OPS is .75 points higher than last. This is significantly better.

Last year he was doomed by a horrible September. My guess is his numbers were similar to this year as of 8-23-06. Let's hope he doesn't experience another swoon in 2007 after football season starts

Johnny Footstool
08-23-2007, 04:12 PM
Here's an unpopular idea: Trade Harang for 3 prime prospects.

Reasoning: The Reds won't be competitive during the span of Harang's contract, and his value is incredibly high right now. The return would be astronomical and could revive the organization for the next 6 years.

BRM
08-23-2007, 04:15 PM
Here's an unpopular idea: Trade Harang for 3 prime prospects.

Reasoning: The Reds won't be competitive during the span of Harang's contract, and his value is incredibly high right now. The return would be astronomical and could revive the organization for the next 6 years.

I don't think the Reds front office would agree with the bolded part. I'm pretty sure they see a competitive team in 2008.

Johnny Footstool
08-23-2007, 04:20 PM
I don't think the Reds front office would agree with the bolded part. I'm pretty sure they see a competitive team in 2008.

They also thought Mike Stanton would shore up the bullpen.

KronoRed
08-23-2007, 04:22 PM
"competitive" meaning if all things break right they get to .500? sure I can see it too ;)

EE and Votto won't bring much back in terms of pitching, EE at this point has very little trade value and Votto alone won't do it, maybe a rebuild project of some sort, EE will probably get the rest of this season to show the Reds something, if not Keppinger is your 3B and EE is out of here.

BRM
08-23-2007, 04:29 PM
They also thought Mike Stanton would shore up the bullpen.

I'm not saying I agree with them. I just don't think trading Harang is anywhere on their radar.

Johnny Footstool
08-23-2007, 04:35 PM
I'm not saying I agree with them. I just don't think trading Harang is anywhere on their radar.

Yeah, I got that you didn't agree with them.

And I think you're right -- they honestly think the 2008 Reds will be contending for the NL Central title "with just a few tweaks". Kind of like they thought the 2007 Reds would be in the hunt without a major overhaul.

BRM
08-23-2007, 04:37 PM
Yeah, I got that you didn't agree with them.

And I think you're right -- they honestly think the 2008 Reds will be contending for the NL Central title "with just a few tweaks". Kind of like they thought the 2007 Reds would be in the hunt without a major overhaul.

Well, in the crummy Central, .500 is contending. A few tweaks can get them to .500 or at least near it. I'd rather they focused on building a 90 game winner and serious World Series contender but I think they are looking to just build an NL Central contender.

IslandRed
08-23-2007, 04:49 PM
Here's an unpopular idea: Trade Harang for 3 prime prospects.

Reasoning: The Reds won't be competitive during the span of Harang's contract, and his value is incredibly high right now. The return would be astronomical and could revive the organization for the next 6 years.

So you don't think there's any way they can put a competitive club on the field until 2011? In that case, you may as well deal Arroyo too, since they're signed for the same period.

Johnny Footstool
08-23-2007, 05:07 PM
So you don't think there's any way they can put a competitive club on the field until 2011? In that case, you may as well deal Arroyo too, since they're signed for the same period.

It's possible that they could compete before then, but it would require an influx of pitching talent, and I don't see Castellini opening his wallet for quality free agent pitchers.

Arroyo's value is too low right now, but if it rebounds next season, I'd advocate moving him as well.

Keep in mind that I'm not saying the Reds should dump either of those guys. But I think the team should be shopping them and seeing if someone will offer the right package in return.

coachw513
08-23-2007, 05:48 PM
Pick between Dunn and Votto over the next 10 months...they'd both start the season in my lineup next year (Hatty the lefty specialist off bench)... move the "loser" for RH offense and/or starting pitching...the LH imbalance of the lineup with Hatt/Votto, Dunn, Hamilton, Griffey, Bruce, Valentin (when playing) is extreme IMHO...

As someone mentioned, Jason Jennings...I don't know anyone available via FA that could bring greater reward...they ALL seem to involve risk...

Please say goodbye to Stanton and Every-Day Eddie...in Stanton's case, when you can't get anyone out except with the "ole yacker", then eventually folks just wait on it...and in EG's case, guile and guts only works when the chicken wing is at least healthy...it's not like he was "electric" before the injury...(btw, they both are "tough" baseball men...I'd have loved them 5 years ago)

We need a leadoff hitter...assuming Hatteburg won't play until he's Julio Franco, is Keppinger the choice???...or is it Hamilton???...this decision influences EE tremendously because I see the Reds being married to Gonzo a lot more than to Encarnacion...does the added offense Phillips bring allow the Reds to play a non-power guy in Keppinger at 3B and move EE for pitching???...maybe...

Do nothing with the bullpen (now questioning my personal sanity :eek:)...cultivate the guys we have...I for some ungodly reason see Majewski pulling out of the spiral and Salmon or McBeth giving us the 1 more arm needed. to go with the Bray-Burton-Weathers trifecta..if Weathers isn't this year's version, get a closer type during the season...IMO contenders seem to be able to find the ability to deal for closers at deadline time...

Bailey, Belisle and Livingston have to be able to get the Reds to the deadline next year as 3-5 starters...then either moving Dunn or a Votto/Cueto type package for a front-line starter at that time...

paulrichjr
08-23-2007, 05:48 PM
Yeah, I got that you didn't agree with them.

And I think you're right -- they honestly think the 2008 Reds will be contending for the NL Central title "with just a few tweaks". Kind of like they thought the 2007 Reds would be in the hunt without a major overhaul.

I honestly think this team can compete for a NL Central title with just a few tweaks. They could even win it all (not likely). The Cardinals did last year and I'm not real sure that they were a better team than the Reds were last year. (Larussa was better than Narron -the difference maker)

The Cubs went from horrible to contender in one season with a fairly large overhaul but honestly I don't think the Reds would have to spend that kind of money to make the jump. The Reds are no where near as bad as the 2006 Cubs. This team can compete next year and win the division with some good moves by 2009. Baily, Bruce, and Cueto will be the major tweaks that will get them over in 2009.

Sea Ray
08-23-2007, 11:53 PM
Bailey, Belisle and Livingston have to be able to get the Reds to the deadline next year as 3-5 starters...then either moving Dunn or a Votto/Cueto type package for a front-line starter at that time...

No way you trade a top flight minor league pitcher. We need those kids as we move forward.

Kc61
08-24-2007, 12:15 AM
[QUOTE=Kc61;1449222]

Last year he was doomed by a horrible September. My guess is his numbers were similar to this year as of 8-23-06. Let's hope he doesn't experience another swoon in 2007 after football season starts


Dunn hit .188 last August (2006) in over 100 at bats. By now he was well into his swoon. You are right that September was even worse, but at this point, 8/23, he is much better hitter than he was in 2006. And a great game winning homer tonight.

If Dunn hits about .260, as he is this year, with his power and OBP he is a tremendous threat. He has so far reversed the decline we saw over the last two seasons.

I would sign him up.

oregonred
08-24-2007, 12:36 AM
Here's an unpopular idea: Trade Harang for 3 prime prospects.

Reasoning: The Reds won't be competitive during the span of Harang's contract, and his value is incredibly high right now. The return would be astronomical and could revive the organization for the next 6 years.

Trading Harang is about the last thing they should do. Finally after 15 years a starter for the good guys that I have complete confidence in when he takes the mound. The Reds can compete in this sorry division and are a solid but not necessarily spectacular Homer Bailey away from contending all of next season. Heck they're only 8.5 games out of first after about the worst possible May/June stretch imaginable.

27-19 since Narron's firing and easily the best record in the divison (and maybe the entire NL) since that time. I also believe the Reds have a winning record against teams over .500 on the season. It's a small sample size but a lot of good things seem to be falling in place going into next season -- assuming Dunn's option is picked up. Work to be done for sure, but an 85 win NL Central team might be printing playoff tickets (do the Reds know who to call in such a rare event happens?)again next season.

TeamBoone
08-24-2007, 02:41 AM
The Reds finally have a pitcher that you can pretty much bet the bank on every time he takes the mound, and you not only think they should trade him, but for prospects? Surely he would be worth a whole lot more than that if the Reds were foolish enough to get rid of him.

Hopefully, they think he's worth keeping.

mth123
08-24-2007, 07:59 AM
Some ideas for the Reds. Many will be unpopular. I'm not wedded to them, just thoughts for now.

1. Sign Dunn long term if possible. Guy has convinced me. He is having a terrific season. Jacoby's influence, or maybe just maturity, really have helped. If he declines you can drop him down to 6th in the order. He is making steadier contact, has become a better hitter.

2. After 600, try to move Griffey. Jay Bruce is the heir apparent to right field. Griffey's salary will be a luxury when Jay is ready, presumably early next season.

3. Trade EE and Votto for pitching. Don't yell. It is hard to get good young pitching for high salaried players. Teams may be more willing to give up good young hurlers for younger guys like EE and Votto. In the case of Votto, Reds are overly lefthanded, they can go (for now) with Hatteberg and Cantu platoon. Eventually, install a righty bat, maybe Cantu alone at first or possibly someone like Todd Frazier can play there. As for EE, see number 4.

4. Install Keppinger at third base. A gamble for sure. JK may well come back to the pack if a regular. But a gamble worth taking if EE brings pitching in a deal. Reds need high OBP, table setter types, players like Kepp can be very valuable. Doesn't have EE's upside, but if pitching improves this trade-off still could work out. Freel can back up third and elsewhere. Some young third sackers on the farm could eventually take over.

5. Decline Guardado option, but re-sign for less $$ plus incentives. Guy is such a tremendous reliever, would hate to give up on him. (Also would hate to give him $3.5 mill next year.) Didn't expect much right after surgery, but would like to see him in a Reds uni next year, after a meaningful recup period. If healthy, can be a Weathers/Bray/Burton/Guardado late innings pen with competition for the middle/early roles among Maj, Coffey, Cout, McBeth, Salmon, Stanton, based on spring performance.

6. Keep Weathers one more year. Guy is tremendous. If he declines, move him to middle relief. You'll never get equal value in a deal.

7. Get another veteran starter. Next off-season, must get a third starter in a deal. Reds team has a lot of possibles for the pen, but the rotation is very weak after Har/Arroyo. I can live with Livingston or Belisle as a fifth starter (skipped occasionally). I can live with a youngster, likely Homer, as a fourth starter next year. But there must be another solid vet or the team goes no place.


Good post KC. These must be unpopular ideas because I agree with most of them.

1. I'd sign Dunn too.

2. Move Griffey this off-season whether he hits 600 or not. He could probably still be dealt in 2008, but he could get out of the gate with an injury as well. He usually has a poor April and I think he has more value coming off of a succesful season.

3. Not big on trading Votto or EE but if they can get good young pitching (starters) I'd do it. There are alternatives that are good enough at 1B and 3B but the pitching is always needed.

4.Kepp at 3B is fine if EE traded.

5. Not sure on Guardado's option. Not sure I'd bring him back, but a few more outings like last night and I'd go after a cheap deal (less than $1.5 Million and only 1 year). Seeing the money Gagne got, if Guardado shows anything, I imagine he'll have lots of options and I'd let some one else overpay. It may be an idea to invoke the option and then deal him. I think the rest of the season will tell a lot. I'm not optimistic though. He does have a rotator cuff issue that was diagnosed in 2005 or so and has never been dealt with beyond rest. They shouldn't give too much money unless they are fairly sure he can be dealt and a longer term deal would probably kill any trade value. If I'm the Reds I wouldn't want any commitment to him because the risk of him collecting money while on the DL is vey high.

6. I grudgingly agree on Weathers but I still wouldn't be shocked at him to falling apart at any time. Glad I've been wrong so far, but he can probably be dealt at the 2008 deadline if the team is out of it.

7. Absolutely need another veteran starter, but I'd rather go with kids than a suspect veteran. The Free agents don't interest me much now that Zambrano has signed and I'm not sure how the Reds acquire a veteran worth getting. They could probably take on a contract if anyone is dumping, but those are usually suspect vets. I see Carlos Silva in our future and I'm not thrilled.

Here are some added ideas.

1. The Reds need to get out from under some contracts to pursue pitching help. I'd deal Gonzalez and go with Pedro Lopez and/or any pure defensive guys that might be available for cheap. If the cost is more than a million or the length is more than a year, I pass. Hopefully the other moves could net a young SS of the future. I could see SF (Vizquel is a free agent and clears a $4 Million slot that could work for Gonzalez) and Toronto (they have no one and the best they have - John McDonanld - is a fee agent) both being interested in Gonzalez and both have enough pitching depth available to probably get a guy for the mix in the middle of the pen or the back of the rotation.

2. Ryan Freel needs to be marketed. This could be a bad year to deal him. Last offseason mediocre CF like Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews (who is better than I thought) were going for huge dollars and the demand exceeded the supply. I think the Reds missed the chance to cash in on Freel. This year Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron are going to flood the market and I'm not sure the Reds will be able to find a taker. Philly (Bourne and Victorino) and probabaly Atlanta (Kelly Johnson with Escobar taking over at 2B full time) have backfills in hand, so I think that there are more guys than openings right now. The Cubs will probably go with Pie ending their need and Johnny Damon and Coco Crisp may be available in trade as well - with Melky and Elsbury ready to step in - which will further flood the market. Some team might take Freel as a supersub, but if EE and Griffey really would be traded as suggested above, keeping Freel around as insurance in CF (with Hamilton taking over RF permanently) and 3B might not be so bad. This is especially true if Gonzalez can be dealt and Keppinger is used some at SS. Given the market conditions and Freel's bad year, he won't get much back.

3. With Starters on the market leaving a lot to be desired, the Reds should go hard for a top reliever. Joe Nathan has Twin/Krivsky ties and would take over the 9th and he'd be my top free agent target with Zambrano gone. The Reds are going to have a lot of suspects and kids making starts and going to the pen in the 6th is probably going to be the norm on a daily basis. Even Harang and Arroyo could use the relief. Those two have been used heavily and the trend has been to leave them in for that extra inning to dodge the pen and save it for the days the other starters go. The Pen needs to be deeper with at least three reliable guys available to pitch every day and to keep from using guys in roles not suited to them. A big time guy like Nathan could do the trick. Nathan gets the 9th, Weathers, Bray and Burton could set-up. Coutlangus could play the LOOGY role and there would be a lot to choose from to fill the other slots. Having 5 giys who can fill thier roles well would make it likely there would always be enough available while still getting these guys enough rest (which is a part of the problem IMO).

GAC
08-24-2007, 08:47 AM
1. I agree

2. Saying you want to move Griffey is easy. Accomplishing it is another thing. Griffey ain't going anywhere simply because of his veto rights. If it had been possible, then it would have already been accomplished by this FO. Next season is the last year of his contract w/ a team buyout of 4 Mil for '09. If he can put up the numbers he has this year, then I have no problem with Jr "holding down RF" next year while Bruce gets one more year of maturity at AAA. Then after '08, give Jr 4 Mil and say "Adios".

But no one is gonna take that Jr contract. Lets get real here.

3. Right now, with the way this market is, I doubt very much that EE and Votto would bring us much in the way of pitching prospects. Maybe low level ones. Votto hasn't proven anything at the ML level, and EE didn't have a stellar year (though his defense has definitely shown improvement. If you were a GM, would you trade promising pitching prospects (a valuable commodity) for the likes of EE/Votto?

5. I really don't think they are going to exercise that option. He is only pitching in certain situations (blowouts, large leads), which shows how much confidence they have in him at this stage. He's a class guy and a fierce competitor; but that alone is not enough to pick up that option. Very risky.

6. Weathers is already signed for '08.

We saved the hardest part for last.....

7. Get another veteran starter.

This off-season market is gonna be no better - and probably worse - when it comes to this particular area. The '07 class saw gys like Weaver, Suppan, Marquis, Lilly, and Zito gettting ridiculous guaranteed contracts.

And out of that lot, the only one who has really paid dividends has been Lilly.

I really don't want to see the Reds take this same route (see: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric Milton). And any established rotation guy that is (or may) be available this off-season (don't know of any right off hand) is gonna go to the highest bidder in this market. Do the Reds even have a chance? Would you want to pitch at GABP? Why pitch for the Reds when teams like the Yanks, Sox, and a few others are probably be beating at your door? Unless you really, really over pay for it.

My wife and I love to go the mall and walk through Maceys and Saks Fifth Ave. We then come to our senses, exit, and head over to WalMarts. ;)

And this is a plight that the Reds not only face, but a majority of teams in MLB. That is why it's important to develop it. If you hit, then you hold their rights for several years before they get too expensive (and they will). It's a sad state of affairs.

Johnny Footstool
08-24-2007, 09:21 AM
Trading Harang is about the last thing they should do. Finally after 15 years a starter for the good guys that I have complete confidence in when he takes the mound. The Reds can compete in this sorry division and are a solid but not necessarily spectacular Homer Bailey away from contending all of next season. Heck they're only 8.5 games out of first after about the worst possible May/June stretch imaginable.

You need more than just a single superstar starter. A lot more.

This is the problem with the current Reds -- they won't commit the cash to winning now, yet they refuse to make real moves that would build for the future.

Harang would bring 3 top prospects. ML-ready arms and bats that would be productive, cheap, and under the Reds' control for the next 6 years. Yet the front office would rather keep the current roster intact and hope to squeeze out 85 wins.

nate
08-24-2007, 09:28 AM
Some ideas for the Reds. Many will be unpopular. I'm not wedded to them, just thoughts for now.

I'll play!

1. Pick up Dunn's option. Someone had even proposed the idea of trying to get him to do a new 3 year deal in the (can't remember exactly) $36 - $40 million ranger (an absolute deal).

2. If Griffey's tradable for a starting pitcher whose abilities are closer to Arroyo than Belisle, I'd go for it regardless of where he is in pursuit of 600.

I suppose a fantasy trade would be Griffey to Tampa Bay for someone like James Shields. Pure fantasy, I know.

3&4. Here's a radical take on your radical idea. Trade Votto for pitching, put EE at 1st and Keppinger at 3rd. Hatte can spell EE. I think Votto may be one of our better trading chips.

5. I still don't know about EG. Accolades for striking out Tex last night but I'm not sure he's got more than "spirit" anymore.

6. I like Weathers, keep him.

7. I'd love to get 2 or 3 starters and not on the FA market. Oddly, I think the best "deal" to be had in free agent pitchers this offseason might be Kyle Lohse. That's how crappy the choices are.

The starters are going to have to come from trades I think. Maybe we get 1 decent guy and continue the musical Belisle / Lizard / Dr. Livingston thing next year. Or maybe even Maloney who had an OK debut in a loss at AAA last night.

I want Homer and Cueto to be so prepared when they come up that they don't go back to the farm.

nate
08-24-2007, 09:30 AM
You need more than just a single superstar starter. A lot more.

This is the problem with the current Reds -- they won't commit the cash to winning now, yet they refuse to make real moves that would build for the future.

Harang would bring 3 top prospects. ML-ready arms and bats that would be productive, cheap, and under the Reds' control for the next 6 years. Yet the front office would rather keep the current roster intact and hope to squeeze out 85 wins.

Totally serious question here:

Is there a team out there that has "3 top prospects. ML-ready arms and bats that would be productive, cheap" they would trade for a starting pitcher?

What team and which players? I'd like to take a look.

I guess if I turned this around, would we trade 3 of Bailey / Votto / Bruce / Cueto for another Harang?

Hmm...

Johnny Footstool
08-24-2007, 09:41 AM
Totally serious question here:

Is there a team out there that has "3 top prospects. ML-ready arms and bats that would be productive, cheap" they would trade for a starting pitcher?

What team and which players? I'd like to take a look.

I don't know. That's why I suggested Krivsky should be looking for offers.

It would have to be a big-market team. How about the Red Sox, Mets, or Yankees?


I guess if I turned this around, would we trade 3 of Bailey / Votto / Bruce / Cueto for another Harang?

Hmm...

No, because the Reds are a small-market team banking on those young players to turn the franchise around. No small-market team would empty their cupboard for a player unless they're 1 player away from a legitimate shot at the World Series.

Likewise, I don't think a small-market team in a rebuilding phase should cling to one star player.

Sea Ray
08-24-2007, 10:11 AM
If you pick up three prospects for Harang the best you can hope for is that one of them will become another Harang...not a good bet to take.

KronoRed
08-24-2007, 01:15 PM
But no one is gonna take that Jr contract. Lets get real here.


I disagree, with only one year left, and as next year goes along even less, a whole lot of teams should be willing to take the plunge if he's putting up decent numbers, especially if the Reds throw in the buy out money for 09, I also think JR will want to go to a team that is closer to actually winning a title.

Johnny Footstool
08-24-2007, 02:02 PM
If you pick up three prospects for Harang the best you can hope for is that one of them will become another Harang...not a good bet to take.

If your scouts are worth anything, you can get a Harang at a bargain basement price, for six years instead of two. Plus a guy who can pitch the 8th inning without giving up 3 runs. Plus maybe another ML average arm.

The alternative would be to keep Harang and limp along, trying to find those missing pieces on some scrap pile somewhere. That hasn't worked out well for the Reds.

lollipopcurve
08-24-2007, 02:08 PM
If your scouts are worth anything, you can get a Harang at a bargain basement price, for six years instead of two.

Really? Then where are all the bargain-basement transactions bringing Harangs to the teams with worthwhile scouts?

Johnny Footstool
08-24-2007, 02:24 PM
Really? Then where are all the bargain-basement transactions bringing Harangs to the teams with worthwhile scouts?

How many players of Harang's quality and contract status have been traded recently?

You have to give up talent to get talent in return.

lollipopcurve
08-24-2007, 02:34 PM
How many players of Harang's quality and contract status have been traded recently?

You have to give up talent to get talent in return.

Why would teams trade a "bargain-basement Harang" plus two other good arms for a multimillion dollar Harang? It's like you're assuming the Reds should ba able to hoodwink another organization about its own talent...

15fan
08-24-2007, 02:42 PM
Reds need more pitching. Not less. Rather than shopping Harang, I'd go with my plan of a couple weeks ago and shop Brandon Phillips. Cheap, young 2b for the next couple of years appeals to the vast majority of the teams out there. If he could fetch a legitimate 1-3 starter and a good bullpen arm, the Reds have the makings of at least a wild card contender next year.

In my Shop BP thread from a few weeks ago, M2 tossed out the idea of hard-selling the Pirates on Hamilton if they really were serious about trading Ian Snell for a bat.

Reds have 1 very good starter in Harang, and another good one in Arroyo. Get a 3rd arm to go with them in the rotation, and a solid arm for the bullpen, and the team can compete in the NL Central.

Hamilton for Snell and / or Phillips for very good pitching would be avenues I'd scour hard.

flyer85
08-24-2007, 02:44 PM
Hamilton for Snell and / or Phillips for very good pitching would be avenues I'd scour hard.probably be more inclined to trade Phillips than Hamilton. I see a potential replacement for Phillips(Keppinger), however, I don't see one for Hamilton. Although for Snell, the Pirates can have their pick.

Johnny Footstool
08-24-2007, 02:52 PM
Why would teams trade a "bargain-basement Harang" plus two other good arms for a multimillion dollar Harang? It's like you're assuming the Reds should ba able to hoodwink another organization about its own talent...

A team on the verge of playoff contention looking for a proven front-of-the-rotation starter without having the cash to buy a free agent. A team with old talent, or a rash of pending free agents. A team on the verge of immediate success, but with a small window for achieving such success.

TeamBoone
08-24-2007, 02:54 PM
Harang would bring 3 top prospects. ML-ready arms and bats that would be productive, cheap, and under the Reds' control for the next 6 years. Yet the front office would rather keep the current roster intact and hope to squeeze out 85 wins.

This is not a guarantee. In fact, more often than not, it's failure waiting to happen.

PuffyPig
08-24-2007, 03:26 PM
If your scouts are worth anything, you can get a Harang at a bargain basement price, for six years instead of two. Plus a guy who can pitch the 8th inning without giving up 3 runs. Plus maybe another ML average arm.




If that was a sure thing, why would the other team make that trade?

You can trade an Harang for a pitcher like Bailey/Hughes/Kershaw etc. who might become an Harang if everything turns out right.

But the odds are against it, even with the best scouting.

And you make that trade if you can't sign harang.

Patrick Bateman
08-24-2007, 03:42 PM
If that was a sure thing, why would the other team make that trade?

You can trade an Harang for a pitcher like Bailey/Hughes/Kershaw etc. who might become an Harang if everything turns out right.

But the odds are against it, even with the best scouting.

And you make that trade if you can't sign harang.

I agree. Replacing Harang is easier said than done. Any top pitching prospect would be very fortunate to become the pitcher Harang is.

If you deal Harang, you may not find a pitcher of his calibre for the next decade. Anyways, I look at Harang and see a really durable and consistent pitcher. I see him being a pretty good bet for the next 5 seasons or so. Perhaps you could trade him now and get optimal value, but the return would be risky. I'd keep what works, and that's Harang. He's as good a pitcher as I have seen where a Reds uniform and I'dprefer ot to risk that for a collection of unknowns.

Johnny Footstool
08-24-2007, 04:13 PM
Harang is the new Mario Soto.

Ltlabner
08-24-2007, 04:17 PM
He'll be this Reds team's Mario Soto, then.

I don't know Johnny, if you trade AH under the pricipal of "we woln't be competitive" anyway, then you have to say we'll never be competitive in the time frame of Dunn and BA either so you might as well trade them. Just keep going down the line with that reasoning until your best asset on the big club is Jorge Cantu.

All of that defacto fire-sale hinges on the quality of your scouting department. Do you trust the Reds scouting department to be top shelf and not squander any of these assets? Because if they sell it all off and don't stock the farm system with *real* prospects you've just doomed the club for many more years to come and we start the process all over again.

I don't know...I just don't like the idea of aiming to be competitive at a specfic point in the future. Just too many things that can go wrong. We can work with what we have now and be competitive. Krvi may or may not be the guy to do it, but we've got a core of young, tallented players can can be built around IMO.

KronoRed
08-24-2007, 04:21 PM
Harang is the new Mario Soto.

Only hope Harang isn't completely spent by the time some help arrives

Johnny Footstool
08-24-2007, 04:28 PM
Only hope Harang isn't completely spent by the time some help arrives

Yeah, his workload is ridiculous.

Johnny Footstool
08-24-2007, 04:32 PM
All of that defacto fire-sale hinges on the quality of your scouting department. Do you trust the Reds scouting department to be top shelf and not squander any of these assets? Because if they sell it all off and don't stock the farm system with *real* prospects you've just doomed the club for many more years to come and we start the process all over again.

Krivsky's whole plan is to build through the draft. How can we expect the scouts to do so if we can't trust them to evaluate the talent in a potential Harang deal?

We're also relying on that same scouting department to populate the rest of the roster surrounding Harang. If they stink, then the Reds are doomed with or without him.

lollipopcurve
08-24-2007, 04:36 PM
Krivsky's whole plan is to build through the draft. How can we expect the scouts to do so if we can't trust them to evaluate the talent in a potential Harang deal?

We're also relying on that same scouting department to populate the rest of the roster surrounding Harang. If they stink, then the Reds are doomed with or without him.

Minor point, but the Reds, like other teams, have separate scouts for looking at pro and amateur players.

nate
08-24-2007, 04:36 PM
Krivsky's whole plan is to build through the draft.

It is?

Ltlabner
08-24-2007, 04:43 PM
Krivsky's whole plan is to build through the draft. How can we expect the scouts to do so if we can't trust them to evaluate the talent in a potential Harang deal?

We're also relying on that same scouting department to populate the rest of the roster surrounding Harang. If they stink, then the Reds are doomed with or without him.

But that goes the other way too.

If you trust them to make a Harrang deal (or do a big time fire sale) and get three bang up guys, you can trust them to evaluate for the draft, make other trades, decide who to call up, etc. In other words, they can build a competitive team to surround Harrang before he's in a wheel chair.

Johnny Footstool
08-24-2007, 05:14 PM
But that goes the other way too.

If you trust them to make a Harrang deal (or do a big time fire sale) and get three bang up guys, you can trust them to evaluate for the draft, make other trades, decide who to call up, etc. In other words, they can build a competitive team to surround Harrang before he's in a wheel chair.

Sure, but if you can get multiple good, young players in a single deal, that's always better.

TeamBoone
08-24-2007, 07:13 PM
Only hope Harang isn't completely spent by the time some help arrives

I don't understand. He pitches every fifth day or are you talking pitch counts?

Sea Ray
08-24-2007, 11:53 PM
We're pretty competitive right now. Just ask the Braves, Brewers, Cubs and Padres...

Red Heeler
08-25-2007, 12:27 AM
Sure, but if you can get multiple good, young players in a single deal, that's always better.

Johnny,
I'm usually in line with your way of thinking, but I've got to say I think you're baked on this one. Even by putting Harang on the market, the Reds would be looking at what the Indians got back for Colon. Certainly not a bad deal at all. However, if you are going to go that route, Griffey, Dunn, Arroyo, Phillips, etc. are going to have to go as well. You are looking at a Marlins style firesale to get everything lined up.

The Reds have lots of payroll coming off the books this year. Free agency is a fools game for teams like Cincy. It gives you the Milton contracts of the world. OTOH, every off season, teams are putting players on the block who are starting to get expensive but who have yet to fully blossom. A smart team with Payflex can take advantage of that situation. By being willing to take on salary, teams can avoid paying a premium in talent for ready to break-out players.

Kc61
08-26-2007, 01:48 PM
On the idea of trading EE and Votto for pitching. Some folks say keep EE. Some say keep Votto. If one is to be kept, I'm leaning to EE. His defense is so vastly improved that I might take the gamble that his power bat will come around. Wonder what could be obtained for a package of Votto, A. Gonzalez, and a good lower level minor leaguer, say Valaika for example? Could you get a solid starter for that package?

Kepp would become the regular shortstop, which he as been for the past weeks. I like Gonzo, just trying to see who is expendable in a trade for pitching.

Matt700wlw
08-26-2007, 01:50 PM
Unpopular idea....

Trade Keppinger.









Thankfully, I don't mean that. :)

mth123
08-26-2007, 01:57 PM
Here is an idea so unpopular I'm not even sure how I feel about it.

Florida is looking for a CF and probably is willing to move Dontrelle for $ reasons. Would anyone trade Josh Hamilton for Dontrelle Willis straight-up? There is certainly some risk with Hamilton and cashing him in would make some sense. Of course I have no idea if Florida would do it either.

BTW, Dontrelle is no sure thing with an ERA of 4.96 and an FIP of 4.87. I have to think his HR per nine of 1.19 would skyrocket in GABP. As much as the Reds need help at the top of the rotation, I'd probably pass on the deal from a Reds perspective.

KronoRed
08-26-2007, 01:57 PM
I don't understand. He pitches every fifth day or are you talking pitch counts?

Just generally a work load comment, pitchers do hit walls suddenly and without much warning.

Patrick Bateman
08-26-2007, 02:01 PM
BTW, Dontrelle is no sure thing with and ERA of 4.96 and an FIP of 4.87. I have to think his HR per nine of 1.19 would skyrocket in GABP. As much as the Reds need help at the top of the rotation, I'd probably pass on the deal from a Reds perspective.

This is why I would promptly reject that deal. Willis has been really bad this year, and is going to be more expensive. Hamilton definitely has more value at this point IMO.

However, as much as I love Hamilton, your unpopular premise could have merit. I'm all in favour of trading guys that you can get tremendous value for. I wouldn't mind trading Phillips for that reason.

I'm more hesitant of moving Hamilton because I think his potential is monstrous, but if you could get a really good, young, cheap established pitcher, you may have to consider it. the pitcher would have to be the real deal, but if I found a package tempting enough I'd be willing to move any player.

mth123
08-26-2007, 02:04 PM
On the idea of trading EE and Votto for pitching. Some folks say keep EE. Some say keep Votto. If one is to be kept, I'm leaning to EE. His defense is so vastly improved that I might take the gamble that his power bat will come around. Wonder what could be obtained for a package of Votto, A. Gonzalez, and a good lower level minor leaguer, say Valaika for example? Could you get a solid starter for that package?

Kepp would become the regular shortstop, which he as been for the past weeks. I like Gonzo, just trying to see who is expendable in a trade for pitching.

I could see Gonzo to a team like SF who has Vizquel leaving and no one coming up to replace him. They have a pretty deep rotation and would probably be willing to give up Back of the Rotation potentials who could be thrown into the mix. I don't think anyone established could be acquired.

For Votto, the best bet is probably a similarly rated propsect who pitches. (The Reds may need to include a sweetener like a Guevara or so). The Reds may be able to use Votto in a deal where they take on a contract which may not be great but still may upgrade the rotation. Right now I can't come up with an example.

Kc61
08-26-2007, 02:05 PM
I could see Gonzo to a team like SF who has Vizquel leaving and no one coming up to replace him. They have a pretty deep rotation and would probably be willing to give up Back of the Rotation potentials who could be thrown into the mix. I don't think anyone established could be acquired.

For Votto, the best bet is probably a similarly rated propsect who pitches. (The Reds may need to include a sweetener like a Guevara or so). The Reds may be able to use Votto in a deal where they take on a contract which may not be great but still may upgrade the rotation. Right now I can't come up with an example.

The Giants are hitting starved. Maybe they would want both Gonzo and Votto. Maybe a deal including the Lincecum guy the Reds passed up in the draft?

mth123
08-26-2007, 02:26 PM
The Giants are hitting starved. Maybe they would want both Gonzo and Votto. Maybe a deal including the Lincecum guy the Reds passed up in the draft?

Packaging them is a thought, but I doubt Lincecum or Cain could be had. Maybe Lowry, but the Reds would probably need to throw in a pitcher of some type. Lowry is having a decent year but his K and BB rates don't look good and I wonder if he would be successful outside of SF's park and the big park NL West. I'd trade Votto and a couple pitchers for him (Say Ramirez and McBeth or something along those lines) if they'd take Gonzalez too. But I don't think he'd be much better than a lower echelon number 3. He's signed for $2.25 Million in 2008 and 4.5 Million in 2009 which makes him a better deal than say Lohse was. There is a club option of $6.25 Million in 2010 and he doesn't have enough service time to opt out due to being traded in the middle of a deal. IMO he's the type the Reds will need to go after right now (though I'd like a number 2 type). In Lowry's case specifically, he's having a good year from a traditinal stat standpoint and even though some of his indicators point to a bit of a drop, those traditional stats may make him harder to obtain than he could be worth.

I think a deal for any of the Giants rotation regulars is probably far fetched, but Gonzo for a swing type (Kevin Correia, Jonathon Sanchez, etc.) makes some sense IMO. SF will probably use the Bonds money to buy a couple bats.

Hoosier Red
08-26-2007, 02:29 PM
Are the free agent bats any better than the free agent pitchers?

mth123
08-26-2007, 02:37 PM
Are the free agent bats any better than the free agent pitchers?

A-Rod? I-Rod, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron. Not much in the IF beyond the A-Rod possibility. Its why trading Gonzo could work if the main goal is to move his dollars. Eckstein an aging Vizquel and an iffy Juan Uribe are the only other comparable SS this year. Gonzo may be better than all of those.

OldXOhio
08-26-2007, 02:53 PM
We're pretty competitive right now. Just ask the Braves, Brewers, Cubs and Padres...

Indeed

Which brings up the point (in light of the theme of this thread) as to what will WK do by 8/31 if this team is within 6 of the lead? Would he consider adding a veteran rental to the rotation and making a run at this thing? As has been pointed out, despite there being 3 teams in front of them, there are a lot of games w/ CHI and MIL left in Sept.

Kc61
08-26-2007, 03:13 PM
For many teams, Gonzo's salary is no big deal. He has 16 homers playing an abbreviated season and I'm not sure why obtaining such a player is a negative. For the Reds, it's only because of the emergence of Keppinger that Gonzo, perhaps, is expendable.

For a team needing offense, Gonzo, Votto plus something more could be an attractive package. I don't see why this package couldn't get a number 3 level starting pitcher. For most teams, this deal would save money because the pitcher might well be higher salaried than the combined Reds package.

As for being "buyers" by 8/31 for a starting pitcher, it is a possibility, but I don't see them adding anyone significant. Reds aren't close enough to add much salary (just traded off Conine, Lohse) or to trade good players/prospects.

mth123
08-26-2007, 03:25 PM
For many teams, Gonzo's salary is no big deal. He has 16 homers playing an abbreviated season and I'm not sure why obtaining such a player is a negative. For the Reds, it's only because of the emergence of Keppinger that Gonzo, perhaps, is expendable.

For a team needing offense, Gonzo, Votto plus something more could be an attractive package. I don't see why this package couldn't get a number 3 level starting pitcher. For most teams, this deal would save money because the pitcher might well be higher salaried than the combined Reds package.

Don't disagree completely. I was "meh" about the Gonzo signing. The thing is he makes too many outs to really consider his offense as a plus and the HRs will come in GABP (Keppinger already has 4 as compared to 2 in the minors). Pure defensive types are available for cheap. Gonzo is surely an everyday caliber SS and he's probably worth his money. The Reds needed to spend it on pitching though. Personally, I'd try to clear his dollars for whatever I could get, go with Pedro Lopez' defense and let Keppinger be a supersub who is in there almost every day (including some time at SS).

As for the package getting a number 3, I just think legit number 3's are pretty valuable these days. It would have to be the right situation and SF could be it. I'd guess most teams would want Bailey or Cueto to part with a legit number 3. You're right about the $ though. If the Reds took on a bunch of money it could make it more likely.

Johnny Footstool
08-26-2007, 04:30 PM
Johnny,
I'm usually in line with your way of thinking, but I've got to say I think you're baked on this one.

Well, the topic is "unpopular ideas"...


Even by putting Harang on the market, the Reds would be looking at what the Indians got back for Colon. Certainly not a bad deal at all.

Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore. A mid-rotation starter, plus two All-Stars. If the Reds could get that kind of return for Harang, would anyone here pass on the deal? I sure wouldn't.

That's all I'm suggesting here. Krivsky should be shopping Harang and seeing if any other team is willing to give up a package like that for him.

Sea Ray
08-26-2007, 04:38 PM
For Votto, the best bet is probably a similarly rated propsect who pitches. (The Reds may need to include a sweetener like a Guevara or so). The Reds may be able to use Votto in a deal where they take on a contract which may not be great but still may upgrade the rotation. Right now I can't come up with an example.

I'd ring up the Detroit Tigers for Votto. They need a young LH 1B with huge offensive upside and they have young pitching too.

mth123
08-26-2007, 05:21 PM
I'd ring up the Detroit Tigers for Votto. They need a young LH 1B with huge offensive upside and they have young pitching too.

Good idea. I was thinking Minnesota but Detroit could work. They won't be likely to get Miller, Verlander or Bonderman any time soon and the other young pitchers aren't as highly rated as prospects as Votto is. Maybe if the Reds were to expand the deal by included a young lefty like Dumatrait or Pelland the Reds could get two guys like Jair Jurjens and Jordan Tata. Votto for Jurjens and a lesser prospect/suspect would be more likely.

Johnny Footstool
08-27-2007, 09:51 AM
nm

Sea Ray
08-27-2007, 11:17 AM
We need to find a Jim Bowden GM to deal with. It was Jim Bowden who felt that trading his ace pitcher was worth it for the chance at an unproven LH hitting minor league 1B. That's what he did in 1998 in the Dave Burba for Sean Casey deal.

15fan
08-27-2007, 02:18 PM
We need to find a Jim Bowden GM to deal with. It was Jim Bowden who felt that trading his ace pitcher was worth it for the chance at an unproven LH hitting minor league 1B. That's what he did in 1998 in the Dave Burba for Sean Casey deal.

Ace in the relative sense, and not in the absolute sense, right?

OldXOhio
08-27-2007, 02:21 PM
We need to find a Jim Bowden GM to deal with. It was Jim Bowden who felt that trading his ace pitcher was worth it for the chance at an unproven LH hitting minor league 1B. That's what he did in 1998 in the Dave Burba for Sean Casey deal.

Please tell me we're not going to deal Votto in a similar fashion to what the Indians did in 98 with Casey.

And yes, one man's ace is another's #4.