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mbgrayson
08-24-2007, 11:50 AM
Many in RedsZone have debated whethert the Reds should pick up Adam Dunn’s 2008 option. I thought a quick look at his 2007 stats, broken down month by month, might add some fuel to this debate(as if it needs any....).

Home runs: 35
April: 6
May: 8
June: 9
July: 4
August: 8

OBP: .373
April: .363
May: .355
June: .352
July: .376
August: .427

Walks/Strikeouts/ BB-K rate: 76/144/.53
April: 14/32/.44
May: 16/41/.39
June: 9/25/.36
July: 19/28/.68
August: 18/18/1.0

Slugging Percentage: .557
April: .511
May: .573
June: .617
July: .455
August: .638

OPS: .929
April: .874
May: .928
June: .969
July: .831
August: 1.065

Strikeout rate: 32.6%
April: 31.4%
May: 34.5%
June: 24.3%
July: 26.2%
August: 20.7%

I don’t know exactly why, but Dunn’s strikeout rate has been dropping since May. I thought I had noticed this, and the stats bear it out.

When we see that including 2007, Dunn’s career strikeout rate is 32.7%, we can see that when he cuts down on strikeouts his OBP numbers take a nice upward turn. Not the striking out a fourth of the time is good, but is better than a third of the time.

Last year, Dunn’s hitting dropped dramatically in August and September. So far, no sign of a repeat. It will be interesting to see if the reduced K rate continues through the end of the year. If this trend continues, it may signal a change in approach by Dunn. If not, it probably just signifies a ‘hot streak’.

JaxRed
08-24-2007, 12:22 PM
Nice research

dfs
08-24-2007, 12:26 PM
good stuff.

lollipopcurve
08-24-2007, 12:27 PM
For me, Dunn's performance lately has answered 1 of 2 big questions I had about him after last year:

1. Does he get worn done and need more rest?
Answer, 2007: Not necessarily.

2. Does he struggle in a pennant race?
Answer, 2007: What's a pennant race?

I think he's improving now -- great to see. I really hope the Reds see the same thing and decide to keep him over Griffey. VERY interesting that Votto has been in RF in Louisville recently...........

Ltlabner
08-24-2007, 12:33 PM
Wait a sec....I thought it was proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that Dunn went on vacation in August and September and that's why no GM want's any part of him.

nate
08-24-2007, 12:36 PM
Wait a sec....I thought it was proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that Dunn went on vacation in August and September and that's why no GM want's any part of him.

Hello?

Its greed-driven production.

I'll bet his SPI's plummet this month.

KronoRed
08-24-2007, 02:18 PM
I like that his OBP is taking anice upward turn

vaticanplum
08-25-2007, 12:36 PM
2. Does he struggle in a pennant race?
Answer, 2007: What's a pennant race?

Touche :laugh:

What is it about Adam Dunn in June? I'm too lazy to look it up, but isn't that consistently his monster month?

Although I love the fact that he consistently plays 160 games a year, it does make me wonder if he shouldn't sit a little more often late in the season. That's not a brain surgeon statement, I guess.

mbgrayson
09-16-2007, 11:56 AM
[Updated stats through September 15th, 2007]

Home runs: 39
April: 6
May: 8
June: 9
July: 4
August: 9
September: 3

OBP: .387
April: .363
May: .355
June: .352
July: .376
August: .443
September: .472

Walks/Strikeouts/ BB-K rate: 94/158/.59
April: 14/32/.44
May: 16/41/.39
June: 9/25/.36
July: 19/28/.68
August: 26/23/1.13
September: 10/9/1.11

Slugging Percentage: .564
April: .511
May: .573
June: .617
July: .455
August: .621
September: .643

OPS: .951
April: .874
May: .928
June: .969
July: .831
August: 1.065
September: 1.115

Strikeout rate: 26.5%
April: 31.4%
May: 34.5%
June: 24.3%
July: 26.2%
August: 20.35%
September: 17.3%

Dunn’s strikeout rate has continued dropping since May.

As of now, mid-September, I think it is clear that Adam Dunn has changed his hitting approach. This is more than just a power streak, which we have seen before from Adam. It now looks to be a season long trend of improvement: better average, better K rate, better OPS each month.

He has also been routinely going the other way with the ball, and consciously putting the ball in play more with runners on base.

This is a very encouraging trend.

OnBaseMachine
09-16-2007, 12:58 PM
A little off-topic but...I was just looking at the boxscore from last night's game and I noticed that they said Dunn was HBP instead of giving him a walk. That is a terrible scoring. The 3-0 pitch was inside but it clearly didn't hit him. It was a good four inches from hitting him. So instead of him now having 95 walks he's still at 94. That could end up costing him a 100 walk season. It's not a huge deal but it's still a minor milestone you would like to see him reach.

Great post, mbgrayson. Adam Dunn was a great, great hitter before but these last few months he's really elevated his status to superstar level. Everytime he steps up to the plate you feel he is a lock to reach base. If this carries over into next season, you could be looking at a MVP.

OnBaseMachine
09-16-2007, 01:23 PM
Adam Dunn

Pre ASB: .258 BA/.356 OBP/.549 SLG - .905 OPS

306 AB, 55 runs, 13 2B, 24 HR, 58 RBI, 45 BB/105 K

Post ASB: .286 BA/.431 OBP/.587 SLG - 1.018 OPS

196 AB, 45 runs, 14 2B, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 49 BB/53 K

pedro
09-16-2007, 01:32 PM
A little off-topic but...I was just looking at the boxscore from last night's game and I noticed that they said Dunn was HBP instead of giving him a walk. That is a terrible scoring. The 3-0 pitch was inside but it clearly didn't hit him. It was a good four inches from hitting him. So instead of him now having 95 walks he's still at 94. That could end up costing him a 100 walk season. It's not a huge deal but it's still a minor milestone you would like to see him reach.

Great post, mbgrayson. Adam Dunn was a great, great hitter before but these last few months he's really elevated his status to superstar level. Everytime he steps up to the plate you feel he is a lock to reach base. If this carries over into next season, you could be looking at a MVP.

It did hit his shirt.

Cyclone792
09-16-2007, 01:45 PM
If people take a look and notice, Dunn's hit rates per PAs have jumped around and show no real trend despite his strikeout rate trending down. His walk rate, however, has jumped up in the past few months, meaning what we knew all along is correct in that a reduction in strikeouts will likely lead to an increase in walks (not really an increase in hits). The increase in walks directly increases OBP, and it also cuts down on the number of AB, which in turn raises BA, SLG and OPS.

At any rate, hopefully Dunn's new surge was soon enough for the Reds to actually be able to commit to a new deal with him. Either pick up the option and extend him for three more years after 2008, or scrap the option and extend him four more years. The Reds need to make sure Dunn's locked up through 2011, as that type of deal would carry Dunn right through his peak years and have him under the Reds' control next to Harang and Arroyo.

FWIW, here's Dunn since August 1st ...


G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+
40 168 129 35 38 7 0 12 36 36 4 32 2 0 1 2 1 0 .295 .452 .628 1.080

paintmered
09-16-2007, 01:46 PM
Adam Dunn

Pre ASB: .258 BA/.356 OBP/.549 SLG - .905 OPS

306 AB, 55 runs, 13 2B, 24 HR, 58 RBI, 45 BB/105 K

Post ASB: .286 BA/.431 OBP/.587 SLG - 1.018 OPS

196 AB, 45 runs, 14 2B, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 49 BB/53 K


Maybe Marty is doing us all a favor by shouting to the world all of Adam's faults and keeping his perceived value low. If the league catches wind of these numbers, $13 million/year will start to look like a steal.

When will the Reds announce if his option is picked up?

jojo
09-16-2007, 01:59 PM
I think we fans make way too much out of small samples so I'm a skeptic that we're watching any transformation.

However as cyclone indicated, Dunn has all but forced the Reds to pick up his option and his second half could have implications for the Reds roster for the next several years.

harangatang
09-16-2007, 02:40 PM
A .472 September OBP, YIKES!

HotCorner
09-18-2007, 12:54 PM
Has the light finally come on for Dunn? I hope so. His numbers post AS are quite encouraging.

Roy Tucker
09-18-2007, 01:20 PM
I listened to a little of last night's game on the radio with Marty and Thom.

I think it was Adam's first AB, Thom was doing his darndest to engage Marty in a discussion about how good of a year Dunn is having. Thom talked about the HRs, RBIs, walks, runs scored, etc etc and how he was getting better at RISP and going the other way hitting. A genuine effort at praising Dunn and the fine year he is having.

Marty's response was less than enthusiastic, mostly "yep", "uh-huh", and "yes he has". About as good as could expected, I suppose. As my dad said about my mom, "once she gets a bone in her mouth, she has to chew on it a while before she lets go". Hopefully some day soon, we'll hear Marty start saying some good things about Dunn. I think it will happen.

Chip R
09-18-2007, 01:26 PM
Marty's response was less than enthusiastic, mostly "yep", "uh-huh", and "yes he has". About as good as could expected, I suppose. As my dad said about my mom, "once she gets a bone in her mouth, she has to chew on it a while before she lets go". Hopefully some day soon, we'll hear Marty start saying some good things about Dunn. I think it will happen.


Mmmmmmm, crow.

Raisor
09-19-2007, 10:34 AM
Meanwhile, over at Reds.com....

I really think our old friend Bad Fundamentals=Marty.

BRM
09-19-2007, 10:40 AM
Thanks Raisor. I just went over and scanned a few posts since you mentioned that. I now feel slightly dumber for having gone there.

M2
09-19-2007, 10:42 AM
I think we fans make way too much out of small samples so I'm a skeptic that we're watching any transformation.

Agreed. That said, I think what we're seeing from Dunn this season is more consistent performance, which is what you'd expect from an experienced player at the top of his game.

M2
09-19-2007, 10:47 AM
Meanwhile, over at Reds.com....

I really think our old friend Bad Fundamentals=Marty.

He must be apopleptic this season.

NJReds
09-19-2007, 01:21 PM
He must be apopleptic this season.

Actually, since he and his Dunn-hating followers make up what is left of the Reds.com board, you can follow his "spin" on Dunn's year. I find his rantings amusing. He's incredibly one-minded and persistent on this issue.

M2
09-19-2007, 01:27 PM
Actually, since he and his Dunn-hating followers make up what is left of the Reds.com board, you can follow his "spin" on Dunn's year. I find his rantings amusing. He's incredibly one-minded and persistent on this issue.

I guess I could follow it, but there's zero chance of me doing so. This place picked up 20 IQ points the day he left.

KronoRed
09-19-2007, 02:15 PM
Actually, since he and his Dunn-hating followers make up what is left of the Reds.com board, you can follow his "spin" on Dunn's year. I find his rantings amusing. He's incredibly one-minded and persistent on this issue.

He's an "Internet guy", they are never wrong :D

Raisor
09-19-2007, 04:11 PM
For those of you that think that Dunn has made great strides this year, here's something to consider.

He's on pace to create about 11 more runs then last year, a "down" year for him. That's about 1 run every 14 games.

Better late then never on the bandwagon, but he's been good for a long time now.

Falls City Beer
09-19-2007, 07:35 PM
Agreed. That said, I think what we're seeing from Dunn this season is more consistent performance, which is what you'd expect from an experienced player at the top of his game.

Absolutely. It's not a sea change in Dunn's game. It's merely the fruit of an exquisite offensive skill set.