PDA

View Full Version : Looking at some Majewski stats



nate
08-25-2007, 02:14 PM
I was just looking through Mr. Majic's splits and noticed that his BABIP for the year is .404 compared to .315 for his career. He isn't striking out a lot of guys but he's been way better lately so his poor performance this year isn't entirely due to luck. However, wouldn't a high number like that indicate _some_ amount of bad luck? Can we expect him to regain some of what he had in 2004-2005?

camisadelgolf
08-25-2007, 02:19 PM
To answer your question, I think 'luck' (for lack of a better word) is a factor, and I believe his BABIP will come down a bit as the season progresses. Also, I'd like to compare the bullpen stats under Jerry Narron to the stats from every other manager for whom they've pitched. Stanton, Coffey, Saarloos, Majewski, and maybe a couple more veterans are having the worst year of their careers, and I've been a huge critic of the way Narron has used the bullpen. Maybe there's a correlation.

mth123
08-25-2007, 02:27 PM
I was just looking through Mr. Majic's splits and noticed that his BABIP for the year is .404 compared to .315 for his career. He isn't striking out a lot of guys but he's been way better lately so his poor performance this year isn't entirely due to luck. However, wouldn't a high number like that indicate _some_ amount of bad luck? Can we expect him to regain some of what he had in 2004-2005?

Agree Nate. Some bad luck was following him around. Maybe he changed his luck by cutting his hair.:)

I'm still not sold on him as an 8th inning guy but he's ok for the mix.

fearofpopvol1
08-25-2007, 02:28 PM
I was just looking through Mr. Majic's splits and noticed that his BABIP for the year is .404 compared to .315 for his career. He isn't striking out a lot of guys but he's been way better lately so his poor performance this year isn't entirely due to luck. However, wouldn't a high number like that indicate _some_ amount of bad luck? Can we expect him to regain some of what he had in 2004-2005?

I think Majewski will improve and will be a servicable pen guy for the team. He's looked a lot better as of late. The fact that he gets ground balls is something the pen needs. I do not think he will regain the numbers he put up in Washington and I do think Krivsky overvalued him when making the trade to get him.

nate
08-25-2007, 02:34 PM
I'm still not sold on him as an 8th inning guy but he's ok for the mix.

I'm not either. But earlier in the game, he might be OK.

I am liking Burton in that role, however!

nate
08-25-2007, 02:35 PM
I think Majewski will improve and will be a servicable pen guy for the team. He's looked a lot better as of late. The fact that he gets ground balls is something the pen needs. I do not think he will regain the numbers he put up in Washington and I do think Krivsky overvalued him when making the trade to get him.

Yeah, maybe!

Maybe Bowden undervauled Bill Bray to go along with that.

Patrick Bateman
08-25-2007, 02:38 PM
His .407 BAPIP is basically a lock to come down, and all things equal should really be in the .290-.300 range. Stuff like this happens in small (13 innings) sample sizes all the time.

However, this doesn't mean that Majewski is going to be good. His K/9 is 3.29 which is about 3-4 K's per 9 away from being around average. The one thing he really has going for him is that he isn't walking anyone. However, with his ridiculous K numbers, it appears he is just tossing the ball over the plate and hoping for the best (and this is the same impression I get when I watch him). Long term, this isn't going to work. It's basically what Ryan Franklin has done this season. It may work for small spurts, but Majewski is going to get pounded badly at some point. Majewski does also get his fair share of groundballs, but when you allow so many balls in play as Majewski does, the homerun rate is still going to be massive.

His FIP of 4.81 is pretty inidcative of his skills. He won't blow away hitters, and his performance will be dictated by luck and the defense behind him. IMO, he continues to be nothing more than a depth pitcher and I really hope that he's not going to find himself in any kind of meaningful role next season.

Rojo
08-25-2007, 05:45 PM
However, this doesn't mean that Majewski is going to be good. His K/9 is 3.29 which is about 3-4 K's per 9 away from being around average. The one thing he really has going for him is that he isn't walking anyone. However, with his ridiculous K numbers, it appears he is just tossing the ball over the plate and hoping for the best (and this is the same impression I get when I watch him). Long term, this isn't going to work. It's basically what Ryan Franklin has done this season. It may work for small spurts, but Majewski is going to get pounded badly at some point. Majewski does also get his fair share of groundballs, but when you allow so many balls in play as Majewski does, the homerun rate is still going to be massive.

His career K/9 is over 5, not great but acceptable for a heavy ground ball pitcher. Its not unheard of for these kind of guys to have an impact -- Tekulve, Quisenberry and, to a less extent Tom Hume. Having said that, I still think the odds are stacked against him.

jojo
08-25-2007, 06:35 PM
I was just looking through Mr. Majic's splits and noticed that his BABIP for the year is .404 compared to .315 for his career. He isn't striking out a lot of guys but he's been way better lately so his poor performance this year isn't entirely due to luck. However, wouldn't a high number like that indicate _some_ amount of bad luck? Can we expect him to regain some of what he had in 2004-2005?

When a pitcher is either hurt or done as a major leaguer, his BABIP would be expected to be unusually high....we know GM was hurt....we're awaiting the answer to the second one I think...

A guy's peripherals generally will clue you in but one ominous sign a pitcher is done-all of his luck/unluck factors suggest he's been unlucky even though he's been "healthy".

Patrick Bateman
08-25-2007, 07:35 PM
His career K/9 is over 5, not great but acceptable for a heavy ground ball pitcher. Its not unheard of for these kind of guys to have an impact -- Tekulve, Quisenberry and, to a less extent Tom Hume. Having said that, I still think the odds are stacked against him.

That's true, but if he's going to do that he needs pinpoint control. Whenever his K rate is in the 5's, his walk rate also takes a jump forward. His career K:BB is 1.53, which is really bad for pitchers of his kind. He's just not going to be a reliable reliever unless he is the beneficiary of some really fortunate luck.