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View Full Version : People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....



jojo
08-26-2007, 06:39 PM
Hey all. This was posted by Lance McAllister (http://www.lance1530homer.com) on his blog today:


This Reds job is now more attractive to potential managers than it was two months ago. I was told at the time of Narron's firing that two unemployed "potential" candidates would not touch this situation during the 2007 season because of how big a mess it was. That mess isn't as messy now.

I've enjoyed every second of the Pete Mackanin era so far but I don't think '08 is any brighter now than it was for the team before PM took the helm. I'd argue that the Reds situation today hasn't changed at all from what it was 2 months ago with the exception that now their W-L record is in line with their pythag record. It's the same personnel, same farm, same FO, same prevailing philosophy and MO.

In general we as fans make way too much of results in relatively small time frames. This team after July 3rd is no more fixed/turning a corner this year than the roster that was 12 games over .500 during the first half of the '06 season had turned a corner last season. In essence we're seeing that happy side of random. (BTW, RMR authored a great post on true skill level and randomness here (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1451830&postcount=137))

I'd submit that any managerial candidate that now would consider the job when he wouldn't have 2 months ago should automatically be crossed off of the list of potential candidates because to have that view necessitates an approach to player evaluation that would make them closer to part of the problem than part of the solution.

So what do you think?

StillFunkyB
08-26-2007, 06:41 PM
Hey all. This was posted by Lance McAllister (http://www.lance1530homer.com) on his blog today:



I've enjoyed every second of the Pete Mackanin era so far but I don't think '08 is any brighter now than it was for the team before PM took the helm. I'd argue that the Reds situation today hasn't changed at all from what it was 2 months ago with the exception that now their W-L record is in line with their pythag record. It's the same personnel, same farm, same FO, same prevailing philosophy and MO.

In general we as fans make way too much of results in relatively small time frames. This team after July 3rd is no more fixed/turning a corner this year than the roster that was 12 games over .500 during the first half of the '06 season had turned a corner last season. In essence we're seeing that happy side of random. (BTW, RMR authored a great post on true skill level and randomness here (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1451830&postcount=137))

I'd submit that any managerial candidate that now would consider the job when he wouldn't have 2 months ago should automatically be crossed of the list of potential candidates because to have that view necessitates an approach to player evaluation that would make them closer to part of the problem than part of the solution.

So what do you think?

I agree with you.

Though this does feel better than 2 months ago.

Mario-Rijo
08-26-2007, 07:11 PM
Hey all. This was posted by Lance McAllister (http://www.lance1530homer.com) on his blog today:



I've enjoyed every second of the Pete Mackanin era so far but I don't think '08 is any brighter now than it was for the team before PM took the helm. I'd argue that the Reds situation today hasn't changed at all from what it was 2 months ago with the exception that now their W-L record is in line with their pythag record. It's the same personnel, same farm, same FO, same prevailing philosophy and MO.

In general we as fans make way too much of results in relatively small time frames. This team after July 3rd is no more fixed/turning a corner this year than the roster that was 12 games over .500 during the first half of the '06 season had turned a corner last season. In essence we're seeing that happy side of random. (BTW, RMR authored a great post on true skill level and randomness here (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1451830&postcount=137))

I'd submit that any managerial candidate that now would consider the job when he wouldn't have 2 months ago should automatically be crossed off of the list of potential candidates because to have that view necessitates an approach to player evaluation that would make them closer to part of the problem than part of the solution.

So what do you think?

Oh I agree whole heartedly, if he can't see the forest for the trees what kind of guide is he?

One thing I do disagree with in that paragraph is that the Reds have changed. They are Narronless at the helm which should be good enough in itself for about 3-4 more wins, and with a guy like Pete he is good enough for another 2-3 assuming he continues to use the same approach if he get's another year at it. So all in all switching managers improved this team another 5-7 wins which makes them a changed team IMHO.

fearofpopvol1
08-26-2007, 07:18 PM
The big difference is that they are finally playing like a "team." I don't know if it's Mack, I don't know if it's mysterious leadership in the clubhouse, a spark underneath their rear-ends...I don't know. It has certainly made a difference though and it reminds me of the bright spots of the 2006 season.

nate
08-26-2007, 07:35 PM
Are they better? No, but I think Pete has coax their Pythag out of them. They are most certainly more fun to watch and have made the season enjoyable again.

Topcat
08-26-2007, 07:39 PM
The big difference is that they are finally playing like a "team." I don't know if it's Mack, I don't know if it's mysterious leadership in the clubhouse, a spark underneath their rear-ends...I don't know. It has certainly made a difference though and it reminds me of the bright spots of the 2006 season.


I think it is Mack, He is Like Kep and Burton and Majik along with giving a shot to Shearn has reached into the soul of all guys who dream of the Majors and finally getting there shot. Mack is showing faith and trusting his players and the attitude has shaken the vets out of the playing out the string , instead he has instilled pride and faith in the Players and they are rewarding his faith in them.

mth123
08-26-2007, 07:43 PM
I think they've changed. The team that broke spring training is missing its worst players. Season ending injuries to Freel, Milton and Castro. Dumpings of Moeller, Conine and Lohse. Cormier retires. Saarloos, Coffey and Santos in the minors. That is more than a third of the roster replaced and its the worst guys (except I liked Coffey and Freel has his uses) no longer here. Add in a horrible manager removed and this is quite a different team.

BCubb2003
08-26-2007, 07:45 PM
Why would you hire somebody who's only interested after someone else has turned things around?

vaticanplum
08-26-2007, 07:53 PM
Why would you hire somebody who's only interested after someone else has turned things around?

For one of the same reasons directors hire established actors who are used to doing the same thing movie after movie instead of hiring talent that will give a better performance, but require more direction and help. I guess the word might be laziness?

If the team's recent playing has made it more attractive to good managers, I don't really care if it's smoke and mirrors or not. If a truly good manager wants to come to Cincinnati because of Montgomery Inn, hire a chef and fire up the grill, I say.

paulrichjr
08-26-2007, 10:56 PM
I just can't understand how this team is in "such as mess." There was talent on this team in April, May, June, July and still today. A team that has players like Phillips, Grif, Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, and Hamilton should never never never be as bad as they were at the beginning of the year. This team didn't have any leadership and now it does. I don't believe this garbage of a manager is only worth 5 wins or so either. This "might" be true when it comes to in game situations but it is not true when it comes to providing leadership.

I don't remember who wrote the post earlier in the year about Narron's use of the bullpen (talked about warming guys up all the time and leaving them in for just one batter) but that post more than anything made me realize just how bad Narron was at managing a bullpen. I honestly think his inability to manage a bullpen sucked the life out of a team that is better on paper than any team in the NL Central except maybe Milwaukee. Face the facts guys...This team is not that bad...in fact they might even be decent.

jojo
08-26-2007, 11:07 PM
I think they've changed. The team that broke spring training is missing its worst players. Season ending injuries to Freel, Milton and Castro. Dumpings of Moeller, Conine and Lohse. Cormier retires. Saarloos, Coffey and Santos in the minors. That is more than a third of the roster replaced and its the worst guys (except I liked Coffey and Freel has his uses) no longer here. Add in a horrible manager removed and this is quite a different team.

I think you make a pretty good point about the anchors.

OldXOhio
08-26-2007, 11:18 PM
I just can't understand how this team is in "such as mess." There was talent on this team in April, May, June, July and still today. A team that has players like Phillips, Grif, Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, and Hamilton should never never never be as bad as they were at the beginning of the year. This team didn't have any leadership and now it does. I don't believe this garbage of a manager is only worth 5 wins or so either. This "might" be true when it comes to in game situations but it is not true when it comes to providing leadership.

I don't remember who wrote the post earlier in the year about Narron's use of the bullpen (talked about warming guys up all the time and leaving them in for just one batter) but that post more than anything made me realize just how bad Narron was at managing a bullpen. I honestly think his inability to manage a bullpen sucked the life out of a team that is better on paper than any team in the NL Central except maybe Milwaukee. Face the facts guys...This team is not that bad...in fact they might even be decent.

If they're playing better and their record is better, guess what? They're better. No one is saying they've suddenly become world beaters - they've simply been playing a better brand of ball. The OF play has been steadied by having Hamilton back; Keppinger has been a solid fill in while the team's been without Freel and Gonzalez. The pen has improved with the return of Bray and the development of Burton. The rotation, albeit still a huge unknown, is finally getting the pitching it thought it would out of Harang and Arroyo (3.9 era since the AS break) combined. Credit Pete, credit WK...hell credit Jerry Narron if you want to. It's now nearly a 50 game stretch, in mid-season mind you, that they've been doing this. As far as I can tell, they're about one solid SP away from being right there with the Cubs. I agree, they're a decent ballclub. Not great, just not as miserable as they looked in May and June.

RedsManRick
08-27-2007, 12:18 AM
What's changed is that the assets accumulated are asserting themselves. Burton is showing himself a capable reliever as McBeth does the same in AAA. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are tearing up the minors. Phillips continues to put up sexy numbers, their actual value aside. Dunn is "putting it together", aka doing what he's done for 4 years running. And Harang is finally getting his due as a legitimate ace.

So, no, from one perspective, things haven't changed since Narron was given the boot. However, I think the organization is maturing, if you will. Perhaps that's due to Mac in part, perhaps not. Bottom line, there are some positive things to work with, they just might not have been as evident to the baseball tonight crowd prior to the last 40 games.

Sea Ray
08-27-2007, 12:24 AM
Things have changed since Mack took over. The next manager will not have as many holes to fill as previously thought. You can now pencil in roles for next year for Bray, Burton, Keppinger and Hopper. Maybe even Maj. I agree with Lance. This isn't as huge a rebuilding job as it looked before and that'll attract more managers.

paulrichjr
08-27-2007, 12:36 AM
Does anyone know how many games we lost in the 8th inning this year? I think the number was insanely high until Mack took over. An awesome, tremendous, 1927 Yankees team could not go through what the Reds went through early this year with the bullpen and not be tremendously affected. It all boils down to a manager using guys in their correct spots and not wasting arms by wearing them down warming up and then presto all of the bad karma went away.

A great bullpen can make an average team great - (1990 Reds) while an above average to average team can be made to look like the worst team in baseball with a bad one (2007 Reds).

BCubb2003
08-27-2007, 12:50 AM
Does anyone know how many games we lost in the 8th inning this year? I think the number was insanely high until Mack took over. An awesome, tremendous, 1927 Yankees team could not go through what the Reds went through early this year with the bullpen and not be tremendously affected. It all boils down to a manager using guys in their correct spots and not wasting arms by wearing them down warming up and then presto all of the bad karma went away.

A great bullpen can make an average team great - (1990 Reds) while an above average to average team can be made to look like the worst team in baseball with a bad one (2007 Reds).

Maybe it was just the return of Guardado and Bray.

redsfan4445
08-27-2007, 12:52 AM
If PETE gets this team to the playoffs, how can he not get Manager of the year and a new 2 year deal to stay as managerr?? He has been the difference,, even Stormy said it on a interview, Dunn as well and it shows how they play on the field...I saw 2 games with Narron, VERY flat team.. no emotion.. i seen 3 games with Pete, ALL WINS, all hustle and all the moves he has made have been WAY better than Narron ever could think of.. (you wont see a Castro type bat for Hamilton with PETE). Plus if the team goes from worse to first? save the money for another manager and use it to fix the starting rotaion and pen (along with the money saved from Milton's 10 million off the books!)
IF they dont win it but come close, i say they have realy changed what will happen in the off season..(not a total rebuild)

Mario-Rijo
08-27-2007, 12:59 AM
What's changed is that the assets accumulated are asserting themselves. Burton is showing himself a capable reliever as McBeth does the same in AAA. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are tearing up the minors. Phillips continues to put up sexy numbers, their actual value aside. Dunn is "putting it together", aka doing what he's done for 4 years running. And Harang is finally getting his due as a legitimate ace.

So, no, from one perspective, things haven't changed since Narron was given the boot. However, I think the organization is maturing, if you will. Perhaps that's due to Mac in part, perhaps not. Bottom line, there are some positive things to work with, they just might not have been as evident to the baseball tonight crowd prior to the last 40 games.

More like 2 of the last 3 years, let's not exaggerate it.

remdog
08-27-2007, 01:08 AM
A great bullpen can make an average team great - (1990 Reds) while an above average to average team can be made to look like the worst team in baseball with a bad one (2007 Reds).

This Reds team is hardly 'above average'. It's hot right now and, while some pockets of depression have been filled because management finally cut bait with the 'experienced' types that they brought in, in order to go with the youngsters that actually have their best days ahead of them, they still have a pretty good way to go. Their starting pitching is two deep. Their bully is still 'iffy'. Injuries continue to be a problem. Catching is a weakness.

They are riding hot bats, i.e. Keppinger, Javy, EdE, etc. That won't last forever and they show no ability to get consistant starting pitching from anyone other than Harang. (Arroyo has been 'in & out'.)

Isn't this what got us in trouble last year? The 'fools gold' that made some think that last years' team was a contender---it's what led to the idea and the money spent that we could 'win now' if only we had a few more veterans around who knew how to win.

Did anyone learn anything from last years' experience?

Rem

Far East
08-27-2007, 01:42 AM
The biggest differences that I see are:

(A) Bray, Burton, Maj, Eddie, and maybe even (the second half)Weathers make the post All-Star pen better than the pre All-Star pen.

(B) Hitters other than Hatteberg and Hamilton are now hitting the ball "where it's pitched" instead of always from the heels -- Griffey and Phillips to the opposite field; Dunn, E.E., and Keppinger up the middle. Who knows whether the manager, the hitting coach, or Griffey's "leading by example," or something else (some great hitting that way that they've seen by several of the opposing teams' hitters, for example) has caused this new offensive success.

cincrazy
08-27-2007, 02:22 AM
This Reds team is hardly 'above average'. It's hot right now and, while some pockets of depression have been filled because management finally cut bait with the 'experienced' types that they brought in, in order to go with the youngsters that actually have their best days ahead of them, they still have a pretty good way to go. Their starting pitching is two deep. Their bully is still 'iffy'. Injuries continue to be a problem. Catching is a weakness.

They are riding hot bats, i.e. Keppinger, Javy, EdE, etc. That won't last forever and they show no ability to get consistant starting pitching from anyone other than Harang. (Arroyo has been 'in & out'.)

Isn't this what got us in trouble last year? The 'fools gold' that made some think that last years' team was a contender---it's what led to the idea and the money spent that we could 'win now' if only we had a few more veterans around who knew how to win.

Did anyone learn anything from last years' experience?

Rem

With all due respect, I don't believe that this team is "fool's gold." I'll admit, that last year was a fluke, and this year's run may be as well. But there are some very solid pieces in place for this team, in the majors and the minors. This team still needs pieces, as I know you agree, but hot streaks like we were on last year and now currently show that we have potential if we ever manage to fill those gaps that exist.

fearofpopvol1
08-27-2007, 03:11 AM
This Reds team is hardly 'above average'. It's hot right now and, while some pockets of depression have been filled because management finally cut bait with the 'experienced' types that they brought in, in order to go with the youngsters that actually have their best days ahead of them, they still have a pretty good way to go. Their starting pitching is two deep. Their bully is still 'iffy'. Injuries continue to be a problem. Catching is a weakness.

They are riding hot bats, i.e. Keppinger, Javy, EdE, etc. That won't last forever and they show no ability to get consistant starting pitching from anyone other than Harang. (Arroyo has been 'in & out'.)

Isn't this what got us in trouble last year? The 'fools gold' that made some think that last years' team was a contender---it's what led to the idea and the money spent that we could 'win now' if only we had a few more veterans around who knew how to win.

Did anyone learn anything from last years' experience?

Rem

I agree that they are riding a hot and riding a streak and all, but this team has way more talent than they were playing with the earlier half. Even with the pitching holes, that offense from top to bottom has the talent to be a tremendous force. The defense isn't too shabby either.

They're not going to just "give up" at this point. I think as long as they're playing well like this, they have to go for it. A week from now, this could all be irrelevant. For now though, it's not.

Ltlabner
08-27-2007, 07:57 AM
Is it possible to enjoy a short period of sucess without a horde of Redszoners rushing to remind us they are a mediocre team, at best? (not neccessarly on this thread, but several others different ones out there).

I don't think many people are suddenly fooled into thinking this is the 1927 Yanks. Could Kriv repeat his mistake of thinking they are "one step away"...sure. But until he does, can't we just enjoy some decent baseball?

nate
08-27-2007, 09:06 AM
Is it possible to enjoy a short period of sucess without a horde of Redszoners rushing to remind us they are a mediocre team, at best? (not neccessarly on this thread, but several others different ones out there).

Nope!

PEACE

Strikes Out Looking
08-27-2007, 09:12 AM
I disagree with the statement that there was a mess to begin with. The mess was the manager, the rest (bullpen, erratice offense, bad defense, starters) are just problems that the Reds--like every other team in the division-- have to work through. And if somebody didn't want to come in June, I don't want them know.

remdog
08-27-2007, 09:55 AM
Is it possible to enjoy a short period of sucess without a horde of Redszoners rushing to remind us they are a mediocre team, at best? (not neccessarly on this thread, but several others different ones out there).

Reality bites, huh? You could try an all-optimist thread if you like or even an all-optimist forum (like the proposed all-stat forum). That way 'pure' thought and like-minded ideas will be allowed to bloom to their full-flower----without the nuisance of those pesky things like discenting opinions differing viewpoints. :p:

Ah heck, don't bother. It's been tried here and failed miserably. :)

Rem

JaxRed
08-27-2007, 10:04 AM
Actually...... Boss and GIK have consistenly refused to allow a forum for people tired of constant criticism.

remdog
08-27-2007, 10:06 AM
I agree that they are riding a hot and riding a streak and all, but this team has way more talent than they were playing with the earlier half. Even with the pitching holes, that offense from top to bottom has the talent to be a tremendous force. The defense isn't too shabby either.

They're not going to just "give up" at this point. I think as long as they're playing well like this, they have to go for it. A week from now, this could all be irrelevant. For now though, it's not.

Actually, except for replacement players, this team has neither more or less talent than they were playing with in the earlier half. But having talent and performing are two different things. Teams are neither as bad as when they are playing poorly nor as good as when they are playing well. And, one of the great things about baseball is that it evens those things out over a 162 game season. The reality for the Reds is, that over 130 of those games they are 10 games under .500 and that means that 80% of the way through the season the 2007 version of the Reds is a losing team.

No one expects them to "give up". No self-respecting player would do that. If they did I don't see how they could live with themselves and I'd certainly be embarrased to root for them.

Rem

remdog
08-27-2007, 10:11 AM
Actually...... Boss and GIK have consistenly refused to allow a forum for people tired of constant criticism.

You forgot to add one of these. :)

Rem

remdog
08-27-2007, 10:14 AM
And if somebody didn't want to come in June, I don't want them know.

OK, I'll admit you lost me there. I have no idea what you ment by that comment (even if I assume that you ment 'now' instead of 'know').

Clarification?

Rem

JaxRed
08-27-2007, 10:15 AM
No smiley because I was serious. I've asked several times in the past for a forum like that and have always been turned down.

remdog
08-27-2007, 10:16 AM
Nope!

PEACE

That certainly added to the discussion. Pithy, too.

Rem

remdog
08-27-2007, 10:25 AM
No smiley because I was serious. I've asked several times in the past for a forum like that and have always been turned down.

And why wouldn't you be? This site was established to discuss various viewpoints---that was the 'mission statement' from the git go. Personally, I feel that if all you want is like-minded thought (whether it's all-optimism, all the time or all-stats, all the time, etc.) start a seperate web-site. Anyone is entitled to do that any time they want.

In her early days, IIRC, Creek tried to encourage all-optimist threads; Team Casey too. Those threads never prevailed because this isn't a censored site and people are free to express their ideas---even ones that others disagree with, as long as they are civil to one another. And, as is obvious, people will do that.

And I'm serious too. :)

Rem

Ltlabner
08-27-2007, 10:28 AM
Reality bites, huh? You could try an all-optimist thread if you like or even an all-optimist forum (like the proposed all-stat forum). That way 'pure' thought and like-minded ideas will be allowed to bloom to their full-flower----without the nuisance of those pesky things like discenting opinions differing viewpoints. :p:

Ah heck, don't bother. It's been tried here and failed miserably. :)

Rem

Funny that I suggest we simply enjoy this nice spurt of good play (knowing full well that it's temporary at best) and it's imedatley labled as "all optimist" and stomped on like a cock-roach in the corner. I guess I missed the part of my post where I stated we were going to win the world series, and that this was a solid team posied for a dynasty.

Isn't this game meant to be enjoyed on some level? Or is even the slightest bit of enjoyment distastefull and uncomfortable?

Falls City Beer
08-27-2007, 10:37 AM
I'm sure there are many, many more people who could pipe up and say the Reds aren't good and are just on a hot streak.

But they're keeping quiet. Glass half-full and all that.... So, optimists, take heart in that fact.

nate
08-27-2007, 10:43 AM
That certainly added to the discussion. Pithy, too.

Rem

Same as the response!

remdog
08-27-2007, 10:43 AM
Funny that I suggest we simply enjoy this nice spurt of good play (knowing full well that it's temporary at best) and it's imedatley labled as "all optimist" and stomped on like a cock-roach in the corner. I guess I missed the part of my post where I stated we were going to win the world series, and that this was a solid team posied for a dynasty.

Isn't this game meant to be enjoyed on some level? Or is even the slightest bit of enjoyment distastefull and uncomfortable?

Oh get off it....no one stomped on you. You expressed an opinion and I expressed an opinion. :rolleyes:

Sorry you aren't enjoying it. I am. Immensely!

Rem

remdog
08-27-2007, 10:45 AM
Same as the response!

Cute. And pretty much in line with what I would expect from you.

Thank you.

Rem

Johnny Footstool
08-27-2007, 10:47 AM
Look for the earmarks of good pitching (low DIPS ERA, high K/9, low BB/9, low HR/9) and good hitting (high OPS, good BB rate).

nate
08-27-2007, 10:48 AM
I think now we're seeing how the Reds really play. No, not this month, but on the season. They started out being extremely "unluck" WRT their Pythag. Recently, they've played "up" to it. No, they're not some world-beating team, just a hot one.

But its fun to watch and gives us a chance to take off our hair shirts.

nate
08-27-2007, 10:48 AM
Cute. And pretty much in line with what I would expect from you.

Thank you.

Rem

Back atcha!

(BTW, my initial response is just an in-joke Ltlabner and I have from chat. Sorry you were so offended by it!)

;)

JaxRed
08-27-2007, 10:48 AM
And why wouldn't you be? This site was established to discuss various viewpoints---that was the 'mission statement' from the git go. Personally, I feel that if all you want is like-minded thought (whether it's all-optimism, all the time or all-stats, all the time, etc.) start a seperate web-site. Anyone is entitled to do that any time they want.

In her early days, IIRC, Creek tried to encourage all-optimist threads; Team Casey too. Those threads never prevailed because this isn't a censored site and people are free to express their ideas---even ones that others disagree with, as long as they are civil to one another. And, as is obvious, people will do that.

And I'm serious too. :)

Rem

Yet, we now have two forums for discussing baseball, and people are restricted from posting in one or the other. You can't express your opinion in Sun Deck....

So it's very doable, if Boss/GIk would allow.

remdog
08-27-2007, 10:52 AM
Yet, we now have two forums for discussing baseball, and people are restricted from posting in one or the other. You can't express your opinion in Sun Deck....

And, as you probably know, I'm not a fan of that either.

Rem

Ltlabner
08-27-2007, 10:55 AM
I think now we're seeing how the Reds really play. No, not this month, but on the season. They started out being extremely "unluck" WRT their Pythag. Recently, they've played "up" to it. No, they're not some world-beating team, just a hot one.

But its fun to watch and gives us a chance to take off our hair shirts.

Pretty much how I look at it. Dispite the misery-bound myopia of some, I don't think there's many observers who think the Reds are world series bound, poised to win the division or even approaching what one would describe as "a good baseball team".

Suddenly, they are playing better. It's a combination of the removal of chaff (Castro, Moeller, et al), some strong, but likely temporary play from some new blood (Hopper, Kepp, etc), some new enthusasm for new skipper and just plain old luck.

I agree that it would be a huge mistake to think this play will continue and that suddenly there aren't any holes to fill. None the less, it's a heck of a lot more fun listening to the games than it was a month ago.

It is possible to enjoy them in the micro while understanding it's not likely to last in the macro.

remdog
08-27-2007, 10:58 AM
(BTW, my initial response is just an in-joke Ltlabner and I have from chat. Sorry you were so offended by it!)

;)

By posting it here it was no longer an 'in-joke', was it? It was a response that 2000 other people were privy to without the benefit of being let in on the 'joke'. Taken in the greater universe without the benefit of being an insider it's entirely likely that others will react differently than the one person you were directing the comment to.

Just something to think about.

Rem

Chip R
08-27-2007, 10:59 AM
Knock off the sniping at each other. If you have problems with another poster, take it private. This isn't the place for that.

westofyou
08-27-2007, 11:01 AM
It is possible to enjoy them in the micro while understanding it's not likely to last in the macro.

I sure do, as for the rest of the those who don't... maybe they can lobby for a new forum to voice their displeasures.

Sea Ray
08-27-2007, 11:02 AM
Funny that I suggest we simply enjoy this nice spurt of good play (knowing full well that it's temporary at best) and it's imedatley labled as "all optimist" and stomped on like a cock-roach in the corner. I guess I missed the part of my post where I stated we were going to win the world series, and that this was a solid team posied for a dynasty.




Such hyberbole is not necessary. Merely thinking the Reds are in the pennant race would suffice as "all optimist".

jojo
08-27-2007, 11:04 AM
Yet, we now have two forums for discussing baseball, and people are restricted from posting in one or the other. You can't express your opinion in Sun Deck....

So it's very doable, if Boss/GIk would allow.

I'm thinking they'd have to hire a mod fulltime AND give them fringe benefits to police that forum....

Ltlabner
08-27-2007, 11:04 AM
If I didn't have a job, it might be interesting to go back and track the Reds record since....

- The likes of Castro, Moeller, Freel, Conine and Ross stopped getting regular playing time (not that they were all playing regularly, but since they stopped being in the line up in some combination)

- Some of the bullpen chaff was sent down, and some of the other guys started pitching better (very difficult with the revolving door)

remdog
08-27-2007, 11:26 AM
If I didn't have a job, it might be interesting to go back and track the Reds record since....

- The likes of Castro, Moeller, Freel, Conine and Ross stopped getting regular playing time (not that they were all playing regularly, but since they stopped being in the line up in some combination)

- Some of the bullpen chaff was sent down, and some of the other guys started pitching better (very difficult with the revolving door)

Since the earlier version of the team there have been improvements. Keppinger>Castro, Burton>Santos, Bray>Cormier, etc.

However, the big leveling factor is that the Reds play in a crappy division and the Brewers came back to earth. I, along with many others here, said in the off season that the Reds could win this division if they made a few astute moves. It's rather laughable to me that all of a sudden some are jumping on the bandwagon while many of us here knew the Reds had an opportunity but didn't perform well early on(and that prformance record includes the front office). (famous shrug) And, once again, let me be clear on this: the Reds have an opportunity to win not because they are a particularly good team (they aren't) but because they play in a division of equally inept participants. In either of the other two NL divisions their current record would put them 13.5 games behind.

Rem

RFS62
08-27-2007, 11:27 AM
Following the Reds this year is like being in a relationship with a beautiful but seriously bi-polar woman.

Sometimes it's a beautiful thing. Sometimes it's hell on earth.

I'm enjoying the ride we're on right now. I'm in my happy place.

nate
08-27-2007, 11:38 AM
If I didn't have a job, it might be interesting to go back and track the Reds record since....

- The likes of Castro, Moeller, Freel, Conine and Ross stopped getting regular playing time (not that they were all playing regularly, but since they stopped being in the line up in some combination)

- Some of the bullpen chaff was sent down, and some of the other guys started pitching better (very difficult with the revolving door)

Interesting:

*Castro last played July 28 but hadn't really played "regularly" (maybe getting an AB or a start in consecutive games) since July 5. Pretty much when Pete took over.
*Moeller, more or less the same except his last game was July 15 but before that, similar to Castro.
*Freel last played August 2nd.
*Conine, departed on August 19th.
*Ross went down August 12th.

So basically, _some_ of this chaff removal coincided with Pete showing up. Maybe call it, since August 1st, 15-8.

I think you pointed out in another thread that the pitching was actually _worse_ under Pete than it was under Jerry. It certainly _looks_ that way and its gotten worse from Pete's first month:

August: ERA: 5.97, (BAA: .296, OBPA: .352, SLGA: .539)
July: ERA: 4.71, (BAA: .286, OBPA: .351, SGLA: .455)
June: ERA: 5.09, (BAA: .284, OBPA: .354, SGLA: .447)

August is inflated by a few high-scoring affairs. 4 times this month (and the month's not over yet!), teams have scored more that 10 runs against the Reds "tees". In July, that happened 3 times. June and July look surprisingly similar but in June we were 9-16 and in July 14-12. Of course, this is just looking at pitching and not what the offense was doing.

The point is, I think one of Pete's strenghts is that he knows _when_ he can use guys who aren't, to be nice, at their highest level of performance. While dudes like Eddie, the Stanton man and Mr. Majic (who's pitched better lately) have sometimes made the fire bigger, Pete seems to have a guy standing by with a big hose to put it out or at least contain it.

With Jerry, this was a "growth area."

Jerry sure was a nice guy, though!

paulrichjr
08-27-2007, 12:31 PM
The point is, I think one of Pete's strenghts is that he knows _when_ he can use guys who aren't, to be nice, at their highest level of performance. While dudes like Eddie, the Stanton man and Mr. Majic (who's pitched better lately) have sometimes made the fire bigger, Pete seems to have a guy standing by with a big hose to put it out or at least contain it.

With Jerry, this was a "growth area."

Jerry sure was a nice guy, though!

In other words Pete knows "how to lose a game."

nate
08-27-2007, 12:49 PM
In other words Pete knows "how to lose a game."

As poorly as that came out when Wayne said it, actually...yes!

flyer85
08-27-2007, 12:56 PM
Did anyone learn anything from last years' experience?

RemGuess not.

RFS62
08-27-2007, 01:15 PM
Did anyone learn anything from last years' experience?

Rem



Yeah, what I learned is that you enjoy good baseball when you see it.

Hope isn't a bad thing. I'm not going to be crushed if they tail off from their current hot streak.

I'm not going to be devastated if we don't make the playoffs.

I'll watch the games with renewed hope and much enjoyment while they're playing good baseball, which right now, they are.

membengal
08-27-2007, 02:02 PM
Yeah, what I learned is that you enjoy good baseball when you see it.

Hope isn't a bad thing. I'm not going to be crushed if they tail off from their current hot streak.

I'm not going to be devastated if we don't make the playoffs.

I'll watch the games with renewed hope and much enjoyment while they're playing good baseball, which right now, they are.

That's just a 100% fantastic post. Captures it completely for me.

cincrazy
08-27-2007, 02:15 PM
Yeah, what I learned is that you enjoy good baseball when you see it.

Hope isn't a bad thing. I'm not going to be crushed if they tail off from their current hot streak.

I'm not going to be devastated if we don't make the playoffs.

I'll watch the games with renewed hope and much enjoyment while they're playing good baseball, which right now, they are.

Thank you for adding some sanity to a thread that turned nasty in a hurry. I don't get it. People go at each other's throats when we're losing... and when we're winning. Can't we all just enjoy a good hot streak, whether it continues or not?

westofyou
08-27-2007, 02:18 PM
If the only way you can enjoy the game is by winning and perfection year in and year out from the team you follow then you're in for a long, hard run of disappointment at some point.

Because life is long and baseball is way harder then we think it is and both are constantly throwing curves at us.

Falls City Beer
08-27-2007, 02:22 PM
Can't we all just enjoy a good hot streak, whether it continues or not?


Who says we aren't?

I'm enjoying it.

KronoRed
08-27-2007, 02:24 PM
You can enjoy while also realizing this team isn't that different from the one that was out there in June.

cincrazy
08-27-2007, 02:24 PM
If the only way you can enjoy the game is by winning and perfection year in and year out from the team you follow then you're in for a long, hard run of disappointment at some point.

Because life is long and baseball is way harder then we think it is and both are constantly throwing curves at us.

:clap:

Ltlabner
08-27-2007, 02:41 PM
You can enjoy while also realizing this team isn't that different from the one that was out there in June.

I'm not sure I totally agree with that Krono.

Then:
Conine
Castro
Milton
Ross
Freel
Loshe
Coffey

Now:
Kepp
Javy
Bray
Burton (at least he's getting real playing time now)
Jorgenson
Hamilton (back from DL anyway and getting regular playing time)

Bray, Burton and Hamilton have signifcantly more upside than who they replaced. Kepp, while likely destined for the bench, is a huge upgrade from Castro, and is at least holding his own compared to Gonzo.

Could all go right back in the toliet again tomorow, but I'd say it's a different team than in June. Maybe not a better team, but a different one.

remdog
08-27-2007, 03:28 PM
Enjoy baseball any way you want. Lord knows, I am. Just don't go soft (or softer, in some cases) in the head when you evaluate the skill of the team on the field.

Rem

OldXOhio
08-27-2007, 03:46 PM
Just don't go soft (or softer, in some cases) in the head when you evaluate the skill of the team on the field.

Rem

Or what? We'll be disappointed?

We're Reds fans - recent history has taught us to be tougher than most. We'll be okay either way.

cincrazy
08-27-2007, 05:23 PM
Enjoy baseball any way you want. Lord knows, I am. Just don't go soft (or softer, in some cases) in the head when you evaluate the skill of the team on the field.

Rem

I don't think I'm going "soft" in the head. I look at a team and I see a team much better than the one I saw in June. The emergence of Burton and Keppinger have been worth more than some of you are willing to admit. Is this team a playoff team? Probably not. But it's not the same team we saw a few months ago. If it was, I hardly think it'd be going 29-19 over any stretch.

I agree, the starting pitching is going to make it extremely difficult to catch up. But Belisle isn't completely hopeless, and Elizardo is capable of a good month, which he's done in the past. And nobody has a good #5 starter nowadays, so we can mix and match there.

Winning this division isn't likely, but it's not hopeless. The Twins charged back last year, the Astros the year before that, it CAN be done. And neither one of those teams changed all that much on the surface, either.

paulrichjr
08-27-2007, 05:48 PM
Is this a championship team? Everyone keeps saying no but what is your definition of a championship team? Mine is that you win a championship. There is not one person on this board who would have said last year that the Cardinals were a championship team. Well they won it all. Anything can happen in the playoffs. Bad teams get hot and good teams get cold. I would not want to play against anyone in the AL for a championship with this team but if this team somehow made it to the playoffs I don't think any team would want to play them because they would be so hot and fired up that it would be scary to play them for a short series.

Honestly I wouldn't bet $100 on them making the playoffs because I don't think they will. However, I sure am enjoying the last couple of weeks and hope they stay in it until the end.

Rojo
08-27-2007, 06:15 PM
In essence we're seeing that happy side of random.

And early in the season we saw the sad, sad side.

The old baseball saying applies: "your never as good as you think you are when you're winning, you're never as bad as you think you are when you're loosing."

remdog
08-27-2007, 07:27 PM
The old baseball saying applies: "your never as good as you think you are when you're winning, you're never as bad as you think you are when you're loosing."

I agree and I said the same thing earlier.

I'm not concerned with winning the division. If it happens, great! What I am concerned with is that, win or lose, a closeing rush once again convinces Krivsky that the Reds are close and he once again tries to fix gapeing wounds with band-aids. Then we spend '08 reliving '07 like in Groundhog Day. :eek:

Rem

cincrazy
08-27-2007, 08:45 PM
I agree and I said the same thing earlier.

I'm not concerned with winning the division. If it happens, great! What I am concerned with is that, win or lose, a closeing rush once again convinces Krivsky that the Reds are close and he once again tries to fix gapeing wounds with band-aids. Then we spend '08 reliving '07 like in Groundhog Day. :eek:

Rem

I still don't think this team is as far away as some people think. If Cueto and or Bailey can provide Harang and Arroyo with some support next season, I think we have as good a shot as any of winning the Central. Maybe I'm in the minority as far as that's concerned, but I hardly think that our franchise is in terrible shape. As close as we'd all like? No. But not as far away as one might think, IMO.

Falls City Beer
08-27-2007, 09:09 PM
I still don't think this team is as far away as some people think. If Cueto and or Bailey can provide Harang and Arroyo with some support next season, I think we have as good a shot as any of winning the Central. Maybe I'm in the minority as far as that's concerned, but I hardly think that our franchise is in terrible shape. As close as we'd all like? No. But not as far away as one might think, IMO.

If Bailey and Cueto can come up and provide 150 innings of 100 ERA+, .760 OPSA, 4.25-4.50 ERA ball, the Reds will run away with the Central (provided no one else important gets seriously hurt and they don't trade away Dunn).

But that's a pretty tall order, honestly. That's a lot to ask out of one rookie, much less two.

nate
08-27-2007, 09:14 PM
If Bailey and Cueto can come up and provide 150 innings of 100 ERA+, .760 OPSA, 4.25-4.50 ERA ball, the Reds will run away with the Central (provided no one else important gets seriously hurt and they don't trade away Dunn).

But that's a pretty tall order, honestly. That's a lot to ask out of one rookie, much less two.

Yup.

Now if we were still in the NL West...

cincrazy
08-27-2007, 09:17 PM
If Bailey and Cueto can come up and provide 150 innings of 100 ERA+, .760 OPSA, 4.25-4.50 ERA ball, the Reds will run away with the Central (provided no one else important gets seriously hurt and they don't trade away Dunn).

But that's a pretty tall order, honestly. That's a lot to ask out of one rookie, much less two.

I agree completely with you, but I still think that if just one of them steps up and performs well, to go along with possibly a guy like EZ Ramirez, or Matt Belisle, that's not a bad rotation. Great? No. But good enough to win in the NL Central? Certainly.

Rojo
08-27-2007, 09:23 PM
I agree and I said the same thing earlier.

I'm not concerned with winning the division. If it happens, great! What I am concerned with is that, win or lose, a closeing rush once again convinces Krivsky that the Reds are close and he once again tries to fix gapeing wounds with band-aids. Then we spend '08 reliving '07 like in Groundhog Day. :eek:

Rem

I suspect he will either way. Whether conscious or unconscious, I think the last three GM's have been influenced by the presence of Jr. on the roster.

Ltlabner
08-27-2007, 09:25 PM
I suspect he will either way. Whether conscious or unconscious, I think the last three GM's have been influenced by the presence of Jr. on the roster.

That could be.

Also, I think it's being in a free-for-all crapfest of a division spawns a lot of the "if we can only squeak out 85 +/- wins we'll take the division" thinking that results in a lot of weird moves.

KronoRed
08-27-2007, 09:25 PM
I agree and I said the same thing earlier.

I'm not concerned with winning the division. If it happens, great! What I am concerned with is that, win or lose, a closeing rush once again convinces Krivsky that the Reds are close and he once again tries to fix gapeing wounds with band-aids. Then we spend '08 reliving '07 like in Groundhog Day. :eek:

Rem

I have to agree with this worry, just because the division is awful doesn't mean this team is all of a sudden almost there, next year 82 wins might get you a nice shiny 3rd place trophy.