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View Full Version : Is the Reds' late surge going to put them back in "contend" mode?



REDREAD
08-27-2007, 09:06 PM
Watching the game on TV a few nights ago, they posted a graphic saying the Reds had the best record in the NL for a certain time period.. I think it was since July 3.

This surge will probably save Wayne's job.

I'm wondering if this will postpone the rebuilding process yet another year. While I enjoy the fact that the Reds are winning more, I kind of dread another offseason like we had last year (other than Rule V). Do you think this strong finish will make the Reds "go for it" in 2008?

flyer85
08-27-2007, 09:15 PM
I'm wondering if this will postpone the rebuilding process yet another year. While I enjoy the fact that the Reds are winning more, I kind of dread another offseason like we had last year (other than Rule V). Do you think this strong finish will make the Reds "go for it" in 2008?they seem to be "going for it" right now so I don't think they'll look at the off-season as needing to go in a rebuilding mode.

Spitball
08-27-2007, 09:22 PM
I really dread another rebuilding process. The team has some promise. The defense is improved. The bullpen has shown promise. I believe they are a legitimate number three starter away from being the best team in the weak NL Central.

flyer85
08-27-2007, 09:26 PM
I really dread another rebuilding process. this team has really done one. Instead every year the cobble together a roster to try to win as many games as they can.

redsmetz
08-27-2007, 09:27 PM
I think you're misreading the trend here - slowly, but surely, the Reds have been putting together a core of ballplayers at the ML level and in the minors who can help this club over the long haul. Your mention of rebuilding indicates you believe they will need to tear it down and start over. I don't think that's the case. While we're certainly not "just a few players" away, a nice nucleus is coming on board. Plus, every team should be out there trying to win every game they can. Would you expect any less?

Rojo
08-27-2007, 09:29 PM
I'm wondering if this will postpone the rebuilding process yet another year.

I hope so.

GAC
08-27-2007, 09:37 PM
Why would seeing results from some of the younger players he has acquired change what they are attempting to do?

And if you're surged within 6 1/2 games of the division lead, and see alot of inter-division play head in the next 4-5 weeks where anything is possible, then why wouldn't you still be trying to contend? It doesn't mean they are content or are blind to some of the obvious "lack" this team has, such as in the pitching. Or that improvements/changes aren't further needed.

Sure their chances may be slim. But I don't understand why some of you can't simply enjoy what we are currently seeing? Doesn't it provide you with any excitement at all?

I'm enjoying seeing the emergence of some of these yong players, like Bray, Burton, Hamilton, Keppinger, Phillips, and even the imnproved play of EE. These younger players seemed to have re-invigorated the rest of the team. It's been fun to watch them as of late.

I think some of you would pee in the face of a clown. :lol:

KronoRed
08-27-2007, 09:38 PM
They never left "win now" mode.

As for rebuilding, this team hasn't actually done that in the last decade or so it's not something people need to worry about ;)

LoganBuck
08-27-2007, 09:43 PM
While we're certainly not "just a few players" away

I do think they are definitely just a few players away, two legit middle of the rotation pitchers.

flyer85
08-27-2007, 09:44 PM
I do think they are definitely just a few players away, two legit middle of the rotation pitchers.... and at least 2 legit relievers.

redsmetz
08-27-2007, 09:51 PM
I do think they are definitely just a few players away, two legit middle of the rotation pitchers.

I saw FCB commented too, and mentioned two legit relievers, I would agree on both counts. I'd say we're about a handful of better players away. Certainly the starting rotation has to be beefed up. And we absolutely must find consistent, good pitching from our relief corps. I'm liking our bench, which is making us a more solid team (presently I'd put "the bench" for next year as Hopper, Kepplinger, Cantu, Freel, if healthy). And a healthy Freely makes him available. Kepp's play, if for real, gives flexibility if a trade should occur elsewhere. Of course, nothing's certain, but the basic structure is beginning to come to life.

flyer85
08-27-2007, 09:53 PM
but the basic structure is beginning to come to life.when half your pitching staff are replacement level types or worse I would say the gulf may be wider than you think.

remdog
08-27-2007, 09:58 PM
It doesn't mean they are content or are blind to some of the obvious "lack" this team has, such as in the pitching. Or that improvements/changes aren't further needed.

Based upon Krivsky's history it means exactly that.

Rem

redsmetz
08-27-2007, 10:00 PM
when half your pitching staff are replacement level types or worse I would say the gulf may be wider than you think.

Oh, I haven't side it's not a tall order - I'd say we need two more good starters and two more solid bullpen arms, that's 40% of your staff essentially. That's a tall order. Now, will some of these young arms we've been collecting this year who have moved up and down from Cincy to Louisville develop into that? Some part of it maybe. I would say we'll have to pick up one or two of those needed additional parts from the free agency pool or in a trade. That is a wide chasm, no question.

flyer85
08-27-2007, 10:02 PM
Based upon Krivsky's history it means exactly that.

Remthe last offseason was that of a GM that was willing to stand pat, although the scarier part is that WK learned enough to go after a middling starter in the free agent market. If he does then throwing 4 years at a starter like Silva is not out of the question. The Reds investing in this market(middling FA starters) would likely be a disaster like it was for mos teams over the last 3-4 years.

flyer85
08-27-2007, 10:04 PM
I would say we'll have to pick up one or two of those needed additional parts from the free agency pool or in a trade. it better be a trade for the starters because the middling starter free agent market is fools gold.

LoganBuck
08-27-2007, 10:04 PM
... and at least 2 legit relievers.

If the pups keep growing into dogs, they may not need 2 relievers. I would love to see a solid young(inserted for Wayne) veteran bullpen guy brought in.

LoganBuck
08-27-2007, 10:06 PM
it better be a trade for the starters because the middling starter free agent market is fools gold.

Agreed

flyer85
08-27-2007, 10:06 PM
If the pups keep growing into dogs, they may not need 2 relievers.... or some guys may regress and you might need more than two. The Reds pen is comprised of over-the-hill types and guys with little or no track record of success.

paintmered
08-27-2007, 10:28 PM
... and at least 2 legit relievers.

...and a right handed bat.

GAC
08-28-2007, 08:11 AM
Based upon Krivsky's history it means exactly that.

Rem

But that "history" is a pretty short tenure isn't it?

But show me where Krivsky has demonstrated contentness with what we have with a resistance to want to change/improve? He has not been oblivious to the areas of need on this team since he took over. example: the bullpen. Granted, he, like many other teams across MLB, has had a very hard time in trying to improve that bullpen. And has even made some missteps in the process of trying to improve it. But when I look around MLB I see a heck of alot of teams, due to the leanness of the market, in "throwing stuff up against the wall" when it comes to their bullpens, and hoping it sticks.

I'm not saying people don't have a right to complain and "hold their nose" when it comes to this bullpen.... just that it's not that easy of a task to find/acquire those players when everyone else is looking for them too (or hoarding them).

It's the same situation with our starting pitching. He made the effort to hold onto two of those guys in Harang and Arroyo, while trying to find/fill those other spots with inexpensive talent like a Belisle, Lohse, Livingston, etc.

And I don't blame him one bit for trying to do that when I look at the pitching market and what was signed by the other teams over last off-season. Thank God he didn't stick us with another Milton contract. Or even a Suppan or Marquis. I do not want this organization making desperation (and hig risk) moves, when it comes to addressing the acquistion of starting pitching.

And when I look over the potential pitcher FA list that may be available after this season, it looks worse (or leaner) then last off-season. And I'd rather bit my lower lip and take my chances on "Lohse-style" contracts rather than acquire pitching that shells out guaranteed money and brings very little in return, except hamstringing us under another bad multi-year, million dollar contract.

But there is alot of youth on this team when ne looks at this roster. And when some of that youth has started to perform, then he has jettisoned some of these "vets" like Conine and Moeller.

And I really think he'll do the same with Stanton if kids like Bray, Burton, Majewski, and some others, continue to improve and show they belong up here.

nate
08-28-2007, 08:12 AM
...and a right handed bat.

How about Aaron Rowand?

Rube Goldberg contraption-like series of events for this to happen:

* trade Votto for pitching
* trade AGon for pitching
* sign Aaron Rowand to play CF
* Dunn to first
* Keppinger to short
* OF of Hamilton / Rowand / Griffey

GAC
08-28-2007, 08:19 AM
the last offseason was that of a GM that was willing to stand pat

He "stood pat" in the area of greatest need (pitching) because it couldn't be adequately filled in that current market. Maybe you would have liked it if he came home with a Suppan, Marquis, or Weaver type?

So it's not like he didn't see or recognize the need; but more like he would rather take low risk/low cost chances on kids like a Lohse and Belisle, rather then participate in that market where teams were throwing huge guaranteed contracts at over-rated pitchers.

And I don't blame him one bit for not doing so. If it doesn't pan out with a kid like Lohse and/or Belisle you're not stuck. You can't say that with the above.

RANDY IN INDY
08-28-2007, 10:39 AM
He "stood pat" in the area of greatest need (pitching) because it couldn't be adequately filled in that current market. Maybe you would have liked it if he came home with a Suppan, Marquis, or Weaver type?

So it's not like he didn't see or recognize the need; but more like he would rather take low risk/low cost chances on kids like a Lohse and Belisle, rather then participate in that market where teams were throwing huge guaranteed contracts at over-rated pitchers.

And I don't blame him one bit for not doing so. If it doesn't pan out with a kid like Lohse and/or Belisle you're not stuck. You can't say that with the above.

Agree with that, GAC.:beerme:

flyer85
08-28-2007, 10:46 AM
He "stood pat" in the area of greatest need (pitching) because it couldn't be adequately filled in that current market. Maybe you would have liked it if he came home with a Suppan, Marquis, or Weaver type?
Excellent strawman, by the way.

Never have said or even implied that the Reds should address the need for starters through agency. In fact I have always said the middling starter free agent market is WAY overpriced and is fools gold.

However, there are other ways to address needs.

westofyou
08-28-2007, 10:48 AM
However, there are other ways to address needs.

Will ya feel that way when they flip EE for a pitcher and put Keppinger at 3rd?

Because my crystal ball sees that in the future.

pedro
08-28-2007, 10:52 AM
Will ya feel that way when they flip EE for a pitcher and put Keppinger at 3rd?

Because my crystal ball sees that in the future.

I'm not so sure Gonzalez isn't going to be the next SS for the Blue Jays.

westofyou
08-28-2007, 10:53 AM
I'm not so sure Gonzalez isn't going to be the next SS for the Blue Jays.

Yeah, preach defense and stick a guy there after a handful of games there out of position. Ain't gonna happen, not for 162 games and no seasoned backup.

redsmetz
08-28-2007, 10:58 AM
As we bounce around various scenarios, I think to me, it's evident that WK has accumulated a number of players that can now be chips in some trade or another. I suspect that Flyer is right that the free agent market still isn't very great. But we've got options now where we can trade for pitching. I can't conjecture who will be moved, but we've got a small amount of flexibity to make some move or another this off-season. I don't think we had that last winter.

nate
08-28-2007, 11:04 AM
Yeah, preach defense and stick a guy there after a handful of games there out of position. Ain't gonna happen, not for 162 games and no seasoned backup.

Royce Clayton is a free agent and seasoned!

:D

pedro
08-28-2007, 11:04 AM
Yeah, preach defense and stick a guy there after a handful of games there out of position. Ain't gonna happen, not for 162 games and no seasoned backup.

I know. I know. Anyway, iF EE doesn't get traded it's Freel's AB's as an IF that JK will probably take.

RANDY IN INDY
08-28-2007, 11:50 AM
However, there are other ways to address needs.

Takes two willing and agreeable partners to address that on the short term, and that always sounds easier here than in the real world. It's obvious the needs aren't there in the minors for immediate satisfaction.

flyer85
08-28-2007, 01:03 PM
the "what if" game can be played ad infinitum.

Afterall,
Maybe no decent pitching was available for a reasonable price in the free agent market.
Maybe no trade partner was available for WK to acquire pitching.
Maybe the FO thought the 2007 Reds were good enough to be a contender without upgrades
Maybe ...

I guess the buck stops nowhere.

jojo
08-28-2007, 01:15 PM
I think some of you would pee in the face of a clown. :lol:


Personally I hate clowns. They're creepy. The only thing that would be creepier is if Volkswagon used a couple to drive their cars in that add campaign where everyone is chatterboxing about nothing in the car until out of no where BOOM!!!!!!

C'mon...like I'm even going to ride in one of your cars after having that image in my head let alone buy one of them....

pedro
08-28-2007, 01:18 PM
I think some of you would pee in the face of a clown. :lol:

Funny you should mention that. I had a friend in college who's parents had potty trained him on a children's training toilet with a clown face for a seat.

He was permanently damaged and when he got mad he'd yell "CLOWNS!"

IslandRed
08-28-2007, 03:11 PM
I guess the buck stops nowhere.

I know where it stops; the question is, when is it reasonable for it to stop. WK took over an organization with one good starting pitcher on the big club and nothing worth talking about in the high minors. We'd allowed ridiculous amounts of runs the three preceding years. It was about as bereft as bereft gets. We probably all have differing views on how long it should take to fix that mess. As for me, one calendar year wasn't nearly enough, not playing in the Can't Solve Everything With The Checkbook flight.

But yes, if he can't steal another decent pitcher from another organization and deliver a couple of rotation candidates from the farm system before Castellini gets tired of losing, he's in trouble.

flyer85
08-28-2007, 03:29 PM
I know where it stops; the question is, when is it reasonable for it to stop. The point was there are those will defend the GM no matter if he does something or nothing and they have a rationale for each side.

We really don't know what WK thinks because he never shares much. Judging from his comments the Reds are trying to win now so the most logical assumption was that he put together a team he liked and though could win in 2007. Maybe that is not true but I have no way of knowing that.

In the end the GM will be judged by his W-L record. In addition this GM has always paid lip service to trying to win now.

KronoRed
08-28-2007, 06:01 PM
Yeah, preach defense and stick a guy there after a handful of games there out of position. Ain't gonna happen, not for 162 games and no seasoned backup.

Juan Castro will be healthy and ready to go by opening day :thumbup:

nate
08-28-2007, 06:08 PM
Juan Castro will be healthy and ready to go by opening day :thumbup:

Great! I really hope he helps out as a coach at AAA!;)

HumnHilghtFreel
08-28-2007, 06:13 PM
I really dread another rebuilding process. The team has some promise. The defense is improved. The bullpen has shown promise. I believe they are a legitimate number three starter away from being the best team in the weak NL Central.

This is my problem. I believe that we're pretty close to this as well.

However, is that really what we want? I know we haven't made the playoffs in what seems like forever, but do we really want to be the best team in a bad division? I'd rather that they evaluate the situation and see if what we currently have is enough to build a championship contender, not just a contender for the best record in a horrid division.

GAC
08-28-2007, 09:00 PM
In addition this GM has always paid lip service to trying to win now.

As do most GMs. There are exceptions of course. But a majority of GMs are going to play that PR game. I put very little stock in those kind of comments.

GAC
08-28-2007, 09:06 PM
Takes two willing and agreeable partners to address that on the short term, and that always sounds easier here than in the real world. It's obvious the needs aren't there in the minors for immediate satisfaction.

Exactly right. woy made a statement awhile back that was right on IMO, and addresses this current market..... teams are hoarding their cheap, young talent.

We want our GM to be astuter, smarter, and rightly so. So are alot of other GMs too. They seem to be realizing that you don't easily trade away that cheap, young talent. Even when you may dangle the likes of an Adam Dunn at them, who is probably at his peak. It use to be that the trading deadline was an opportune time to trade (even dump) players and get high level prospects. Not any more so much. There use to be talk on here by some that we should trade Dunn for an established pitcher. In other words - he should easily fetch that. Not any more it seems. Those teams that did show an interest in him were offering crap in return. So what has happened when you can't even get high level pitching prospects for the likes of a Dunn?

mth123
08-29-2007, 06:07 AM
Exactly right. woy made a statement awhile back that was right on IMO, and addresses this current market..... teams are hoarding their cheap, young talent.

We want our GM to be astuter, smarter, and rightly so. So are alot of other GMs too. They seem to be realizing that you don't easily trade away that cheap, young talent. Even when you may dangle the likes of an Adam Dunn at them, who is probably at his peak. It use to be that the trading deadline was an opportune time to trade (even dump) players and get high level prospects. Not any more so much. There use to be talk on here by some that we should trade Dunn for an established pitcher. In other words - he should easily fetch that. Not any more it seems. Those teams that did show an interest in him were offering crap in return. So what has happened when you can't even get high level pitching prospects for the likes of a Dunn?

I read it this way too. That is why a smart GM may need to go against the grain and trade one of his young, cheap, highly rated prospects in order to acquire the one thing every team is really after which is competent starting pitching.

One way to interpret WK's plan, from his moves so far, is that it could be to adequately fill spots with cheap journeyman placeholders (Hatte, Keppinger, etc.) to allow him to trade the one thing that everyone else is holding (young cheap players like Votto or EdE) for the thing he actually does need. It may not be WK's plan, but he has put himself in position to be seller in a seller's market where young and cheap are concerned. With the weak Free Agent market for starters, it may be the only way to get the starter that this team needs at this point (and even that may not pry any loose that we would really want).

RANDY IN INDY
08-29-2007, 08:05 AM
Good post!

RANDY IN INDY
08-29-2007, 08:11 AM
The point was there are those will defend the GM no matter if he does something or nothing and they have a rationale for each side.

We really don't know what WK thinks because he never shares much. Judging from his comments the Reds are trying to win now so the most logical assumption was that he put together a team he liked and though could win in 2007. Maybe that is not true but I have no way of knowing that.

In the end the GM will be judged by his W-L record. In addition this GM has always paid lip service to trying to win now.

And there is also the crowd that is after his neck. I think Wayne's "lip service to trying to win now," is a more accurate indicator of what Bob Castellini wants. I do agree with your next to last statement. His W-L record will ultimately cost him his job or allow him to keep it, and I think Castellini wants to see winning sooner rather than later.

REDREAD
08-30-2007, 07:49 PM
I guess my point is that I don't want to see another offseason where Wayne blows all his money on marginal players (like last year).

I'm scared to death he's going to load up on more Castro, Lohse, Cormier, and Stanton types, while tossing away talent like Harris.

In other words, I don't want him blowing his budget on marginal veteran placeholders to try to contend again next year. I'd rather him sign one solid reliever than 4 over the hill guys to multiyear deals.

nate
08-30-2007, 09:06 PM
I guess my point is that I don't want to see another offseason where Wayne blows all his money on marginal players (like last year).

I'm scared to death he's going to load up on more Castro, Lohse, Cormier, and Stanton types, while tossing away talent like Harris.

In other words, I don't want him blowing his budget on marginal veteran placeholders to try to contend again next year. I'd rather him sign one solid reliever than 4 over the hill guys to multiyear deals.

If you look at the free agent list, its likely to cost more than what those dudes combined make for a >30, barely average reliever.

Getting good pitchers will probably have to come via trade.

REDREAD
08-31-2007, 10:49 PM
If you look at the free agent list, its likely to cost more than what those dudes combined make for a >30, barely average reliever.

Getting good pitchers will probably have to come via trade.

I don't have the list handy, but for example, last year Chad Bradford signed for roughly Stanton money.

It seems as if there's not always a whole lot of difference in salary for FA relievers, when you take into account the quality difference.
Sure, the "proven closers" get more money.

Like I said last offseason when Stanton and the others were signed, the Reds would've been much better off giving Bradford a blank check or even overpaying for Lily. Even Marquis was a better risk than Stanton.. sure, he was coming off an off year, but he had a pretty solid career and was relatively young.

I guess the problem I have is that over the last 7 years, the Reds seem to get slightly worse every year overall. It's been a slow decay, and partially masked by the declining quality of the division, but I'd like to see them move forward for a chance.

GAC
09-01-2007, 05:42 AM
I guess my point is that I don't want to see another offseason where Wayne blows all his money on marginal players (like last year).

I'm scared to death he's going to load up on more Castro, Lohse, Cormier, and Stanton types, while tossing away talent like Harris.

In other words, I don't want him blowing his budget on marginal veteran placeholders to try to contend again next year. I'd rather him sign one solid reliever than 4 over the hill guys to multiyear deals.

I thoroughly agree (to a point). When one looks at the pitching market, a Lohse-type contract is much more preferable (low risk) then a Suppan (or Milton) one.

In this second half we have seen a few younger, low cost, low risk, position players emerge on this team. Besides the play of guys like Phillips, Hamilton, and yes, even the improved play of Encarnacion, we've seen guys like Keppinger, Hopper, Bray, and Burton consistently contribute. We've gone out and also acquired, and again, at either low or no cost, players like Cantu and Ellison (who I think will be released at some point).

My point is this..... before we didn't have some of these players available and/or in the system. Or else we weren't sure if they were going to be the "answer" or contribute. Now it seems they are/will serve a valuable purpose. And then one has to look ahead, over the course of next year, at the players like Votto, Bruce, and even Bailey and Cuerto. But it was why, IMO, we saw guys like Castro, Clayton, Womack, Conine, Moeller, etc., on this team.

I'm hoping in this off-season, that it makes Krivsky's decision-making much easier in possibly releasing (even eat a contract or two) of guys like Castro and Stanton, and not picking the option up on Eddie, as well as not having to go out and sign these "peripheral" support players, because there simply is no room for them on this roster.

Our need is obviously pitching. But due to the high value that even most high level pitching prospects hold anymore within organizations, I doubt teams are going to trade it for any of the high level position players we may possess. It's a commodity that most teams are not going to part with, even for the likes of a Phillips, Hamilton, EE, or even Votto or Bruce IMO. I just don't see it.

RedsBaron
09-01-2007, 07:19 AM
Our need is obviously pitching. But due to the high value that even most high level pitching prospects hold anymore within organizations, I doubt teams are going to trade it for any of the high level position players we may possess. It's a commodity that most teams are not going to part with, even for the likes of a Phillips, Hamilton, EE, or even Votto or Bruce IMO. I just don't see it.
I agree. If the Reds are very, very smart, or just very, very lucky, perhaps they can get another "diamond in the rough" such as an Aaron Harang, a pitching talent
unrecognized as such by his present team, but it is otherwise unlikely that the Reds can trade themselves into having a much improved pitching staff, nor do I see much help available through free agency.
The Reds will have to "grow their own." Unfortunately, the Reds record in developing pitchers isn't inspiring.

GAC
09-02-2007, 05:21 AM
I agree. If the Reds are very, very smart, or just very, very lucky, perhaps they can get another "diamond in the rough" such as an Aaron Harang, a pitching talent
unrecognized as such by his present team, but it is otherwise unlikely that the Reds can trade themselves into having a much improved pitching staff, nor do I see much help available through free agency.
The Reds will have to "grow their own." Unfortunately, the Reds record in developing pitchers isn't inspiring.

Fully agree. And that is the only thing, for the moment, that I'm waiting to see if Krivsky can rectify. "Growing your own" pitchers is not something one can do in 1 1/2 years. That is unless you're able to acquire high level pitching talent that is at that pinnacle of being ML ready. But a majority of teams are very reluctant to trade that away any more.

I'm not one who follows our farm system as much as others do on here. I use to; but just don't have the time available to be as thorough as some are. So I am relying on others input, who are saying they are starting to see some progress. But again, you're trying to use a "crystal ball" to gauge and project what a youngster's future will be. Very unreliable IMO.