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M2
08-27-2007, 11:37 PM
Good thing none of the contenders in the NL or AL made a move for Adam Dunn. The .286, 9, 24, 1.085 August he's having sure would have put a crimp in their plans.

The Reds aren't a contender. They're the guy at your local dinner theater doing a bad Marlon Brando imitation saying "I coulda been a contender."

Guys like Jeff Keppinger make the end of the season fun. Brandon Phillips shooting for 30/30 is also a nice diversion.

Mike Stanton should have been traded last month for whatever. Now he's probably getting cut.

The mere fact that anyone in the Reds' front office thought Eddie Guardado would be able to help this season is a sure sign of lunacy.

Homer Bailey either has the most severe groin pull in history or the Reds aren't telling us something.

Aaron Harang better get a Cy Young vote or two this year.

Hopefully we get to see Brad Salmon and Marcus McBeth get more work with the Reds in September.

Have people seen enough of Phil Dumatrait yet to not want to see anymore of him?

Got to figure Johnny Cueto will get called up for a start or two after the IL playoffs. I think it's incredibly premature, but it seems there's no way around it.

The Cubs and Brewers seem helpless to keep the NL Central from the clutches of the St. Louis Cardinals.

I have no idea whether Bob Castellini intends to snatch Walt Jocketty and Tony LaRussa this offseason, but he couldn't pick better targets. LaRussa's in the midst of his best-ever coaching job and that's saying something.

flyer85
08-27-2007, 11:46 PM
Mike Stanton should have been traded last month for whatever. Now he's probably getting cut.If WK stays I would say he is a lock to start 2008 as a Red.


The mere fact that anyone in the Reds' front office thought Eddie Guardado would be able to help this season is a sure sign of lunacy.The real lunacy is that they are evaluating him to determine if they should pick up his option.

Caveat Emperor
08-28-2007, 12:06 AM
Off the top of MY head...

I think the Reds would be insane not to pick up Adam Dunn's option for 2008, and I think the team has finally realized that as well...

There's also this kid named Jay Bruce that apparently can play a little bit. Dunn, Griffey, Hamilton, and Bruce -- makes me wonder if this team is forever cursed to have one more outfielder than they can play...

Jeff Keppinger is fun to watch, but I'll still be upset when the team inevitably moves a player to make room for him in the everyday eight...

Is there any player less-likely to be a Red in 2008 than Edwin Encarnacion?

This rotation is overloaded with 5th starter talent...

If this is the real Bill Bray and this is the real Jared Burton, then maybe the bullpen has a chance to be not awful next season...

When the rosters expand, if I'm WK, I'm taking a long look at anyone who throws late innings at any level of the organization...

Brandon Phillips should be the new face of this franchise...

Nothing suggests that the NL Central will be any better next year than this year...

RBA
08-28-2007, 01:00 AM
Usually when a team is overloaded with OF'ers, they put one at first base.

TOBTTReds
08-28-2007, 01:20 AM
Usually when a team is overloaded with OF'ers, they put one at first base.

Yeah, but two of them are awful OF'ers and it is no fun to play 1B so they are going to refuse to go there.

BCubb2003
08-28-2007, 01:28 AM
Can I play too?

When Davey Concepcion threw out the first pitch, I expected him to bounce it off the turf.

It's not every day that the guy catching the first pitch is a Hall of Famer.

The more Cy Young votes Aaron Harang gets, the more expensive he'll be.

The '99 team got off to a bad start and had even worse starting pitching.

Reds fans to Astros fans: Our interim manager is better than yours.

Brandon Phillips is what Pokey Reese sees when he dreams.

Jeff Keppinger rocks. If he were president, he'd be Rockingham Lincoln.

WVRedsFan
08-28-2007, 01:34 AM
Good thing none of the contenders in the NL or AL made a move for Adam Dunn. The .286, 9, 24, 1.085 August he's having sure would have put a crimp in their plans.
Yep. And what drives me nuts is that so few Reds fans see his value. No player who has ever hit 40 HR and driven in 100 runs has received less love anywhere in my memory.


The Reds aren't a contender. They're the guy at your local dinner theater doing a bad Marlon Brando imitation saying "I coulda been a contender."
Yep. But it's been fun, no? The sad part is many will think this club is just (or was just) a managerial change from being a winner. The reality will set in soon, but I'm going to ride this feeling for awhile and pretend.


Guys like Jeff Keppinger make the end of the season fun. Brandon Phillips shooting for 30/30 is also a nice diversion.
Yep. And Kepp, as much as he brings to the table, is fool's gold. He will be a great bench player. Phillips appears to be the real thing. Enjoy it while you can Reds fans because when the club has to negoitiate with him via arbitration or LTC, and he starts making what he's worth, he'll become public enemy #1 among Reds fans. We don't need no high priced players regardless of how good they are, right?


Mike Stanton should have been traded last month for whatever. Now he's probably getting cut.
Stanton is untradeable. No other club but the Reds would have given him a multi-year contract. And mark this one down. If Krivsky stays, Stanton stays. Krivsky has much love for old players.


The mere fact that anyone in the Reds' front office thought Eddie Guardado would be able to help this season is a sure sign of lunacy.
Krivsky loves Eddie and is willing to do most anything to make sure he succeeds. The lunacy will continue IMHO.


Homer Bailey either has the most severe groin pull in history or the Reds aren't telling us something.
Yep. The secrecy of this club amazes me. If he's hurt, he's hurt and tell us. At least keep us posted. It almost like everything is a top secret with this organization. It need not be.


Aaron Harang better get a Cy Young vote or two this year.
Maybe a couple. When Brad Penny's pitching like he is, you never know. And besides Aaron's not the kind of guy to say "notice me". And the PR department doesn't do enough to push him.


Hopefully we get to see Brad Salmon and Marcus McBeth get more work with the Reds in September.
Not if Stanton and Guardado are available. Remember, Wayne signed them. He's praying they come around.


Have people seen enough of Phil Dumatrait yet to not want to see anymore of him?
Yep to the thousanth power.


Got to figure Johnny Cueto will get called up for a start or two after the IL playoffs. I think it's incredibly premature, but it seems there's no way around it.
The way around it is to not bring him up. Wait a minute. Who brought him here (I forget). It will all depend on that.


The Cubs and Brewers seem helpless to keep the NL Central from the clutches of the St. Louis Cardinals.
Truer words were never spoken. And they'll probably win the Series again.


I have no idea whether Bob Castellini intends to snatch Walt Jocketty and Tony LaRussa this offseason, but he couldn't pick better targets. LaRussa's in the midst of his best-ever coaching job and that's saying something.
Be careful. LaRussa is the anti-Christ among Reds fans, but I agree. Give me guys who have won something. But guys who do that cost money and, you know, we're a small market team and can't afford that. And if we do, there's hell to pay for it.

camisadelgolf
08-28-2007, 02:04 AM
Defense may win some championships, but at this rate, Keppinger's and Valentin's bats are going to give you a much better chance.
When Harang and Arroyo aren't starting, would it be possible for the Reds to sabotage their own stadium in an effort to get the games postponed?
It would cost millions of dollars to bring LaRussa to the Reds: Would you rather spend that money on LaRussa or a mediocre, over-priced pitcher?
Did Pete Rose ever bet on dog-fighting?
If the Reds play better without pressure, maybe they should trade Harang so no one ever thinks they have a chance to compete.
Can the Reds trade Chris Dickerson to the Bengals for draft picks?
So let me get this straight: Homer Bailey has hardly pitched lately because he has "personal" and "groin" problems? I wonder if he's really been itching to play . . .

Hoosier Red
08-28-2007, 03:34 PM
Can I play too?



It seems you've touched on a familiar genre of post before.

Benihana
08-28-2007, 04:07 PM
Off the top of my head, Wayne has brought in:

Brandon Phillips
Josh Hamilton
Bronson Arroyo
Bill Bray
Jorge Cantu
Daryl Thompson
Matt Maloney
David Ross
Jeff Keppinger
Jared Burton
Scott Hatteberg
Alex Gonzalez

While giving up:

Austin Kearns
Felipe Lopez
Wily Mo Pena
Brendan Harris
Zach Ward
and a whole lot of nothing

He also signed Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo to below market long term extensions (well below in Harang's case)

Yes, he did also bring in Rheal Cormier, Mike Stanton, Gary Majewski and a few other stinkers, and (especially in hindsight) he did call up Homer Bailey way too early. But in my opinion, those follies are not nearly enough to wipe out the good he has done. Put me in favor of keeping Krivsky around for at least another year.

Rojo
08-28-2007, 09:14 PM
AGon/Kepp/EdE? Do we have to solve it now? What's wrong with going into spring training with a little depth and a whole lot of competition?

Votto's far from a slam dunk.

If you pick up the options for Hatte and Weathers, you pick up Dunn's.

Assuming we do pick up all the options, Javy, Dunn, Ross, Hatte, Jr, Stanton and Weathers will all be in walk years. That could make next July better than this one.

Speaking of team options, WK sure digs them. That's good, I like them too.

I KNEW the problem with the bullpen was Narron.

Joseph
08-28-2007, 09:19 PM
It's not every day that the guy catching the first pitch is a Hall of Famer.


Not completely on the topic as set forth by M2, but I can say I've seen JB catch a ceremonial first pitch probably 3 or 4 times the past couple seasons. He did one for Seaver last year I know for sure, and I confident I've seen others 'recently' too.

SunDeck
08-29-2007, 03:43 PM
Did Pete Rose ever bet on dog-fighting?

There was a lot of dog fighting in the tri-state back in the 80's. Pete wouldn't have missed out on the action.
He'd bet against gravity if the odds were right.

Roy Tucker
08-29-2007, 04:14 PM
Homer Bailey either has the most severe groin pull in history or the Reds aren't telling us something.



You never know. Young men are known for pulling their groin severely.

RedLegSuperStar
08-29-2007, 04:27 PM
Off the top of my head..

Brandon Phillips is on pace for 30 HR's / 30 SB's while coming close to driving in 100 Runs. He has a multi hit game in his last 5 games (11-20) while batting .550. Oh yeah.. he's playing Gold Glove defense.

RedLegSuperStar
08-29-2007, 04:31 PM
You never know. Young men are known for pulling their groin severely.

Something is up if he went 3 innings giving up 6 runs 8 hits 2 walks and had 4 K's in his outing with Sarasota on August 25th.

Cyclone792
08-29-2007, 04:35 PM
Homer Bailey either has the most severe groin pull in history or the Reds aren't telling us something.

From BP ...


Homer Bailey made a rehab start in Sarasota and got lit up. Worse, according to one observer, he didn't look as if he cared.

Hmmm ...

[The Dude]
And you know he's got emotional problems, man. He's fragile, very fragile!
[/The Dude]

Maybe Homer needs to wise up, mark it zero, and get his head back on his shoulders.

wheels
08-29-2007, 05:28 PM
From BP ...



Hmmm ...

[The Dude]
And you know he's got emotional problems, man. He's fragile, very fragile!
[/The Dude]

Maybe Homer needs to wise up, mark it zero, and get his head back on his shoulders.

That should have been the motto of this season's Reds.

Mark it zero.

15fan
08-29-2007, 05:43 PM
Off the top of my head..

Brandon Phillips is on pace for 30 HR's / 30 SB's while coming close to driving in 100 Runs. He has a multi hit game in his last 5 games (11-20) while batting .550. Oh yeah.. he's playing Gold Glove defense.

I'll say it again.

Shop him this off-season for pitching. Hard.

I'm not advocating giving him away.

But he's clearly the most marketable player in the entire organization if the Reds want to make a trade for good pitching.

Until there's better quality AND depth of pitching at the ML level, the team isn't going anywhere.

RedLegSuperStar
08-29-2007, 05:53 PM
I'll say it again.

Shop him this off-season for pitching. Hard.

I'm not advocating giving him away.

But he's clearly the most marketable player in the entire organization if the Reds want to make a trade for good pitching.

Until there's better quality AND depth of pitching at the ML level, the team isn't going anywhere.

This would free up a spot for Keppinger as well..

nate
08-29-2007, 06:06 PM
I'll say it again.

Shop him this off-season for pitching. Hard.

I'm not advocating giving him away.

But he's clearly the most marketable player in the entire organization if the Reds want to make a trade for good pitching.

Until there's better quality AND depth of pitching at the ML level, the team isn't going anywhere.

I would shop these guys before BP:

*Votto
*Griffey
*AGon
*EE

But, if that offer for BP is unbelievable, I listen!

pahster
08-29-2007, 06:26 PM
I'm all for shopping Phillips hard as well. He could potentially bring in quite the haul considering his low cost, defense, and overvalued offensive contributions. Long term, I'm wary of his on base abilities. His OPS+ this year, which is widely percieved as being a great season, is 102. Last year, it was 85.

I have no problem holding onto Phillips, but he's going to get expensive and his offensive numbers don't look so pretty under closer scrutiny.

Highlifeman21
08-29-2007, 06:47 PM
That should have been the motto of this season's Reds.

Mark it zero.

Nah, the motto for the past two seasons should have been OVER THE LINE!

Which is clearly how Narron handled our pitchers...

There's an acceptable limit of pitches per arm, and Narron was clearly over the line.

And Dude, Chinaman is not the prefered nomenclature. Asian-American, please.

M2
08-30-2007, 11:32 AM
If we're talking trade, any chance the Astros would bite on Homer Bailey and Josh Hamilton for Roy Oswalt?

registerthis
08-30-2007, 12:15 PM
I'm all for shopping Phillips hard as well. He could potentially bring in quite the haul considering his low cost, defense, and overvalued offensive contributions. Long term, I'm wary of his on base abilities. His OPS+ this year, which is widely percieved as being a great season, is 102. Last year, it was 85.

He's also only 26 years old and just entering his prime years--he's not someone I would be looking to move. No one, of course, is off the table, but Phillips should be pretty low on the list.

The one obvious flaw in his game is his inability to take a walk. If he'd only work a bit on his plate discipline and get his walk rate up, he could easily slip into that .850-.875 OPS range, and I can see him occupying that domain for the next 3-4 years, all the while providing gold glove-caliber defense. That's killer, and also the kind of production that's very hard to obtain from a second baseman.

Additionally, this team's offense isn't exactly loaded. Dunn is pretty much a sure thing to be at or around the 40 HR/100 RBI mark, and Josh Hamilton's probably going to be a consistent contributor, although who knows what his ceiling is. After those two and Phillips, the Reds' offense becomes very questionable. Griffey's having a very good year, but his lack of power in the second half may be an indication that he's tiring--and he could, of course, implode with a serious injury at any moment. Hatty may or may not be back next year, and even if he is it will probably be a in platoon role with Votto, who's shown nothing at the major league level yet. AGon's good for 15-20 HRs, and that's about it. EdE might very well be gone, and even if he returns his bat has left a lot to be desired this year. Keppinger might turn out OK, but my money's on Chris Stynes v. 2.0.

In other words, this team doesn't possess the offensive depth that many might believe they have. Several key players are aging and/or might not be around next year, and the young guys coming up to take their place are largely unproven. Considering the fragile state of the team's rotation and bullpen, they're going to have to rely on their offense for the forseeable future if they hope to be competitive. The Reds would be foolish to not entertain all offers, of course, but as far as "shopping him hard", well, I have a hard time imagining WayneK obtaining a satisfying return for what the Reds would be giving up if Phillips were shipped off.

pahster
08-30-2007, 12:29 PM
registerthis:

I have a hard time envisioning Phillips learning to take a walk all of a sudden. That's not what his game is built on. His walk rate last year was quite poor, and this year it's actually been worse. He has good power for a 2B and is an above average defender, which certainly gives him value. If he could suddenly learn how to take a walk he'd become a truely elite 2B, and I just don't see that happening, unfortunately. That's why I'm all for shopping him around. He'll have more trade value now than he will when he gets expensive and is still putting up similar or worse numbers, and his defense certainly won't improve as he ages and loses range.

I'm not too concerned about hurting the offense next year because I don't see the 2008 Reds being very good anyway, especially if Votto and Bruce are left in AAA along with the many effective to semi-effective relievers who've been sent down in order to make room for the AARP member Saviors of 2007. Hopefully I'm wrong.

But like I said, I don't mind holding onto him. Especially if the offers for his services are weak.

I agree with you on Keppinger, btw. I like what I've seen out of him so far, though.

registerthis
08-30-2007, 12:54 PM
He'll have more trade value now than he will when he gets expensive and is still putting up similar or worse numbers, and his defense certainly won't improve as he ages and loses range.

But he's several years away from that; remember, he's 26. Even if he maintains his current level of production, he's very valuable. 2bmen like Phillips don't grow on trees, and I think there'd be a depreciable decrease in the team's overall offensive production if he were taken out and replaced by someone such as Keppinger.

I think everyone's in agreement that the Reds should at least entertain offers for everyone--no one should be an untouchable on this team. But I see the same drawbacks with trading Phillips that I see with Dunn--his true value isn't adequately appreciated, and what the Reds would obtain in a trade for him would likely not replace what we would lose in giving him up. this team might not be competitive in 2008, but Phillips could easily hold down the second base job for the next 4-5 years, and offer very good production while doing so. I'm loathe to give that up, particularly with WayneK's track record of obtaining value in trades.

Benihana
08-30-2007, 03:57 PM
I completely agree with registerthis on this. I don't trade Brandon Phillips unless I'm absolutely blown away by the offer. As for your quote above pahster, the same could be said about Albert Pujols, and I don't think you see the Cards trying to trade him!

The list of players I try to trade before Brandon Phillips includes every player in the organization, with the following exceptions:

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Jay Bruce
Johnny Cueto

That's it.

Benihana
08-30-2007, 03:59 PM
If we're talking trade, any chance the Astros would bite on Homer Bailey and Josh Hamilton for Roy Oswalt?

That would be very very interesting (scratching chin)...

However I'd rather do an Adam Dunn and Homer Bailey deal, and I think they might prefer that as well.

With Oswalt, Harang, and Arroyo in tow, the Reds immediately become the favorite to win the division, and maybe even the pennant.

pahster
08-30-2007, 04:12 PM
As for your quote above pahster, the same could be said about Albert Pujols, and I don't think you see the Cards trying to trade him!

I'm not sure what you're referring to. Pujols is nothing like Phillips; he's got a career OBP of almost .420 and a SLG of about .620. His career OPS+ is 169. He walks 80 or 90 times a year and plays well above average defense at first. He's probably the best position player in the majors, so there's absolutely no reason to trade him anytime soon. There'd be no reason to trade him even if he played defense like Jason Giambi.

Phillips is a nice player to have, but he's no Pujols. And really, who is? Phillips has a ton of value right now and it may never get any higher. There's nothing wrong with seeing what kind of opportunities are available on the trade market. If they're not good enough, forget it and move on.

M2
08-30-2007, 04:19 PM
That would be very very interesting (scratching chin)...

However I'd rather do an Adam Dunn and Homer Bailey deal, and I think they might prefer that as well.

With Oswalt, Harang, and Arroyo in tow, the Reds immediately become the favorite to win the division, and maybe even the pennant.

I'm not sure what the Astros would prefer. Think of all the money they'd save with Hamilton and Bailey. That might be irresistible.

Oswalt, Harang and Arroyo would make me drool. That much I'm sure of.

Benihana
08-30-2007, 04:23 PM
I'm not sure what the Astros would prefer. Think of all the money they'd save with Hamilton and Bailey. That might be irresistible.

Oswalt, Harang and Arroyo would make me drool. That much I'm sure of.

The more I think about it, this is the exact kind of deal the Reds should be trying to make. Whether its Dunn or Hamilton that's paired with Bailey, this trade would make the Reds legitimate contenders for the next half decade.

With Houston's great purge, maybe they'll panic and sell everyone off just like the Reds in 2003? One can only dream.:thumbup:

Benihana
08-30-2007, 04:26 PM
I'm not sure what you're referring to. Pujols is nothing like Phillips; he's got a career OBP of almost .420 and a SLG of about .620. His career OPS+ is 169. He walks 80 or 90 times a year and plays well above average defense at first. He's probably the best position player in the majors, so there's absolutely no reason to trade him anytime soon. There'd be no reason to trade him even if he played defense like Jason Giambi.

Phillips is a nice player to have, but he's no Pujols. And really, who is? Phillips has a ton of value right now and it may never get any higher. There's nothing wrong with seeing what kind of opportunities are available on the trade market. If they're not good enough, forget it and move on.


Obviously I agree that Phillips is no Pujols (duh).

The only thing I was referring to when I made that comparison was your statement that he would only get more expensive, his defense would get worse, and his production may never be better in the future. The same could be said for almost every player in the major leagues who is in their prime.

pahster
08-30-2007, 04:34 PM
The only thing I was referring to when I made that comparison was your statement that he would only get more expensive, his defense would get worse, and his production may never be better in the future. The same could be said for almost every player in the major leagues who is in their prime.

Ok, I understand now.

My reasoning is that Phillips value this season is likely vastly overstated. He plays good defense and has good power for a 2B, but lets not fool ourselves into thinking that he's reached elite status just yet. His on base abilities are mediocre to poor, and while his 25/25 (so far) season sounds nice, his 104 OPS+ and declining walk rate (though he still has time to turn that around this season) belies that. If he can be turned into something more valuable to the franchise in the long term, he should be.

registerthis
08-30-2007, 06:21 PM
If he can be turned into something more valuable to the franchise in the long term, he should be.

Wouldn't that statement apply to every player, though?

pahster
08-30-2007, 06:50 PM
Wouldn't that statement apply to every player, though?

No, not if you're making a run this or next year, which the Reds certainly shouldn't be doing. But generally speaking, absolutely.

I don't think I've communicating myself very well so far. My point is that I think the Reds should be actively looking for buyers for Phillips, whereas it would seem more prudent to take a more passive stance with players like Dunn and Hamilton (although I do like M2's proposal of the latter and Bailey for Oswalt).

Benihana
08-30-2007, 07:45 PM
No, not if you're making a run this or next year, which the Reds certainly shouldn't be doing. But generally speaking, absolutely.

I don't think I've communicating myself very well so far. My point is that I think the Reds should be actively looking for buyers for Phillips, whereas it would seem more prudent to take a more passive stance with players like Dunn and Hamilton (although I do like M2's proposal of the latter and Bailey for Oswalt).

Sorry but I couldn't disagree more.

Brandon Phillips is a free swinger, there's no doubt. He'll never have a high walk rate. Yet he still is the second best player at his position in all of baseball, and it's no fluke. He put up strong numbers last year, and has only improved this year. What's more, is that he was an extremely highly touted prospect coming through the minors, making his performance seem less flukey.

I'd love to hear what the people who like to call Brandon Phillips a fluke were saying about Aaron Harang in the last couple of years.

As far as aggresively shopping BP over a player like Dunn goes, again, couldn't disagree more. Brandon Phillips is signed very cheaply for several years to come. He plays gold glove defense at a premium defensive position, which fits in with Krivsky's plan. Furthermore, there is no strong middle infield prospect in the high minors ready to fill in for BP, in fact, it's probably the weakest position depth-wise in the entire organization. Adam Dunn, while a great run producer, makes $13 MM next year, and will almost assuredly be leaving the Reds as a FA afterwards. If you can convince him to take a 4-yr/$50 MM deal, great. But good luck! All signs point to Dunn walking (and receiving much more money), and therefore he should be shopped before he leaves the Reds for nothing. Perhaps most importantly, the Reds have a ready replacement, in the form of the greatest prospect they've had since, well, Adam Dunn. His name is Jay Bruce, and he's knocking at the door. Unless you can get a king's ransom in pitching in return for Brandon Phillips, you don't move him. Adam Dunn, yes please.

pahster
08-30-2007, 09:06 PM
I never said Phillips was a fluke. He is what he is; good power, good defense, and questionable on base abilities. Phillips makes a lot of outs. Not as many as Alex Gonzalez and certainly not someone like Juan Pierre, but a great many nonetheless.

You're right about there not being many middle infielders worth much in the high minors. I have a hard time envisioning the Reds being competitive in the next two or three years, though, so I don't see why that matters.

Ideally, Bruce isn't Dunn's replacement, he's Griffey's. I'm also not sure what indicates to you that Dunn will walk after next year.

Once again, I'm not saying the Reds have to trade Phillips. I just think they should give it some serious thought. I'm sure they won't, though, as he's one of the few guys Krivsky has picked up who actually play good D.

wheels
08-30-2007, 09:28 PM
I like the idea of packaging Bailey and one of the hitters to get Oswalt (I'd prefer Hamilton be that guy, but I could live with Dunn).

One thing about trading Bailey....They need to be sure he's healthy and be able to prove it before has enough value to help pull off such a deal. I hope it's really his groin that is injured and not his arm.

Benihana
08-31-2007, 10:18 AM
I never said Phillips was a fluke. He is what he is; good power, good defense, and questionable on base abilities. Phillips makes a lot of outs. Not as many as Alex Gonzalez and certainly not someone like Juan Pierre, but a great many nonetheless.

You're right about there not being many middle infielders worth much in the high minors. I have a hard time envisioning the Reds being competitive in the next two or three years, though, so I don't see why that matters.

Ideally, Bruce isn't Dunn's replacement, he's Griffey's. I'm also not sure what indicates to you that Dunn will walk after next year.

Once again, I'm not saying the Reds have to trade Phillips. I just think they should give it some serious thought. I'm sure they won't, though, as he's one of the few guys Krivsky has picked up who actually play good D.

If the Reds can't be competitive over the next three years, it will be a crying shame, as Harang and Arroyo will be on the way out, and the Reds will have wasted the best 1-2 pitchers to come through here in a LONG time.

For that reason if for nothing else, the Reds need to formulate a plan where they are trying to compete over the next four years. No more five year plan, no more building for 2012, etc. They must take advantage of the opportunites they have now with Harang and Arroyo in the fold, Phillips, Hamilton and Encarnacion having established themselves as quality everyday players, and their top four prospects in a long time all being major league ready at the same time.

When was the last time the Reds had two pitchers the quality of Harang and Arroyo? When was the last time they had four Grade A prospects, all major league ready at virtually the same time (all in the first half of next season)? When was the last time they had no real holes in the starting lineup (with the possible exception of catcher)? This is why the Reds must take advantage of their present situation.

If you could trade any outfielder on the current big league roster along with Homer Bailey in exchange for Roy Oswalt, you do it. Period. I wouldn't trade Brandon Phillips unless someone like Justin Verlander was coming back in return.

pahster
08-31-2007, 10:34 AM
I'd certainly trade any of the OFs and Bailey for Oswalt, but I'd give up Phillips for him too. Letting one of the OFs go is more convenient for the Reds because of Bruce's sudden rise through the farm system this year makes one of them (prefferably Griffey) obsolete. But if the Astros were interested only in Phillips, it would be foolish to turn them down, for he isn't worth as much as Oswalt.

I think they need to take advantage of having Arroyo and (especially) Harang for the next few years. I hope they do, but I'm not sure they will. I'd also argue that the Reds may have a hole at 3B. EE has been pretty good lately, but has been awful for the majority of the season. His defense has seemingly improved, though. I'm not ready to give up on him yet, but I don't think him performing to expectations is a given anymore.

Benihana
08-31-2007, 10:38 AM
I never said I wouldn't trade Phillips for Oswalt, of course I would. I said I wouldn't trade him unless a king's ransom in pitching was coming back, and Oswalt would certainly qualify as such. I just said I don't think the Reds should be actively shopping Phillips instead of Dunn, and I stand by that.

Ltlabner
08-31-2007, 10:41 AM
If the Reds can't be competitive over the next three years, it will be a crying shame, as Harang and Arroyo will be on the way out, and the Reds will have wasted the best 1-2 pitchers to come through here in a LONG time.

If the Reds can't compete with the likes of Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, Phillips and Hamilton topped off with the likes of Burton, Bray, McBeth, EE and Votto/Bruce* then I'm not sure they will ever compete.

I'm not saying they will be a dynasty, but winning teams have been constructed with a lot less tallent that what is listed above. They ought to at least be able to be in the hunt with those guys.

pahster
08-31-2007, 10:48 AM
I never said I wouldn't trade Phillips for Oswalt, of course I would. I said I wouldn't trade him unless a king's ransom in pitching was coming back, and Oswalt would certainly qualify as such. I just said I don't think the Reds should be actively shopping Phillips instead of Dunn, and I stand by that.

In that case, I don't really think we disagree on anything other than who should be shopped more. I don't want to trade Phillips for nothing. I just get the impression that he has more value than does Dunn (who can't be traded during the offseason anyway), so we might be able to get more for him. I'm not sure who would have more trade value between Phillips and Hamilton, though. The latter has clearly outperformed the former so far this year, but he's also been on the DL twice and this is only his first season. Then there's the addiction issues on top of that.

Really I guess I should say I'm all for shopping everyone all the time in order to accurately assess everyone value in trades. I singled out Phillips simply because I think it's likely that he has more value than anyone else on the roster (save Harang) as of now, and I'm not particularly enthralled with his on base abilities.