View Full Version : Rate the rest of our SP staff

08-28-2007, 05:28 PM
Maybe I'm wrong in my initial premise, but IMO Harang and Arroyo are our best 2 SP, in that order.

That being said, how do you rank the rest of the SPs in our organization? For the sake of argument, assume everyone is 100% healthy and is a viable option to fill out spots 3, 4 and 5 in the SP rotation.

My list

Matt Belisle
Homer Bailey
Johnny Cueto
Kirk Saarloos
Elizardo Ramirez
Phil Dumatrait


After looking at our options immediately after Harang and Arroyo, I'm immediately discouraged. Belisle is our only arm that should be at the MLB level, while all the rest still either have something to develop or prove, or are at BEST AAAA arms. I'd like to be optimistic and think that come 2009, having a rotation consisting of Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Bailey would be enticing, but OTOH what have Bailey and/or Cueto done to really prove themselves at the MLB level?

What have you, RedsZone faithful? How we lookin after Harang and Arroyo?

08-28-2007, 05:41 PM
Right now, not lookin' good. I'd really like to see Belisle as #5 at or in the 'pen.

If I take your list as "all we got", I put them like this:

1. Cueto
2. Homer
3. Belisle
6. Lizard
8. Saarloos
10. Dumatrait

08-28-2007, 05:46 PM
I'd say:

Although I like most of the guys we took in this year's draft, I was really hoping to see more early round SP's taken. I really hope that its addressed thoroughly in next year's draft.

08-28-2007, 07:03 PM
If everyone on that list were fighting for the fourth and fifth spots, I could live with it. We need a decent #3.

08-28-2007, 08:25 PM
I expect Belisle to use this season as a learning experience. He should be up and around 300 career IP at the end of this season. He's got a 6.34 K/9 this season and a 6.22 mark for his career. I'm hopeful that he can be an effective innings eater for a few years (and serve as a reminder that pitching development is not fast or easy).

Cueto, Bailey and Maloney all are going to need more time in the minors in 2008. I'd want each one to go through a full season of AAA. Losing Bobby Livingston hurt because he was a step ahead of these guys (at least in terms of his development curve). There really isn't anyone else in the system I'd feel comfortable throwing to the wolves in 2008.

Dumatrait shouldn't be allowed to pitch to major league hitters. He's every bit as bad as advertised.

Saarloos is landfill and not much more. Ramirez is your classic #8 starter. You keep him in AAA and hope that you don't need him. He might be more useful in long relief.

With Sam Lecure and Carlos Fisher looking likely to be in Louisville next season, the Bats could be one of the more interesting rotations in the minors. Not ready for primetime, but tantalizingly close. The Reds really will need to take some steps to protect themselves from themselves, immense restraint is going to be required. Two solid major league starters need to be found. They don't have to be studs. In fact they can be guys who just happen to be a year or two ahead of the Louisville brigade on the learning curve. What they mostly need to be is pitchers who won't erupt. They don't have to be studs, but they do need to carry the workload and, hopefully, stay healthy.

The Reds are in a precarious, but interesting spot. If they don't screw it up by acting out of desperation, they could find themselves with some young arms worth keeping along with some others they can move (young arms have never been worth more). It's a chance to transform the organization, but it can't be rushed. A short-term bulwark needs to be constructed so that the Reds can let that AAA pitching increase in value (and make the critical decisions on who gets kept and who gets dealt). My preference would be to go in on one vet and one younger guy who might mature into something that allows the club to move Arroyo in another year or two and I wouldn't be looking to snag either of these guys via free agency. The club has position players it can deal for distressed contracts (e.g. Tim Hudson last year) and 24-to-26-year-old arms who struggled a bit in their initial major league trials.

Anyway, if Belisle can improve a bit and two respectable starters can be found, the club could be in a position to reconstruct itself properly. It won't happen in one fell swoop, but the essential foundation will be laid to do the work. Plus, a respectable starting rotation could put the Reds in position for a respectable 2008 season dependent on how the offense, defense and bullpen shake out.

08-28-2007, 09:34 PM
I agree with M2. Belisle is probably in. Bailey and Cueto don't look ready yet. Dumatrait is a non-option at this point. Ramirez is #5 at best as a default (although I'm not sure that he isn't still lacking some arm strength from his case of Narron arm and may be improved a bit next spring). Saarloos is the worst of this bunch IMO. He doesn't even have left-handed going for him like Dumatrait does. When I look at Maloney I see some potential, but I can't help but think of Eric Milton. That might be ok at the back of a rotation for minimum, but IMO he's the guy to package (sell high) with a young hitter like Votto or EdE for real rotation help.

If Tom Shearn holds his own the rest of the way, he may force himself into the mix as the limited but polished replacement for the limited but polished Livingston. I'm guessing there will at minimum, be some veteran low dollar NRIs next spring as alternatives. Think Victor Santos or some one similar.

08-29-2007, 02:09 AM
mth, I sure hope the Reds do more than look for NRI fixes. I'm not opposed to some dumpster diving, but the right arms would be worth a few pounds of flesh.

08-29-2007, 05:53 AM
mth, I sure hope the Reds do more than look for NRI fixes. I'm not opposed to some dumpster diving, but the right arms would be worth a few pounds of flesh.

I agree. That is why one of the younger ones (prefer it be Maloney) needs to be packaged with a young hitter (Votto??? EdE??) for a real, actual, in the flesh, solid, dependable, fits the park well, major league starter for the 2 or 3 spot.

If Belisle can stick at number 4 then we have a pick 'em situation for number 5. The NRI's are for that group. If the Reds can acquire two established starters, then the NRIs become clutter (which they might be anyway if Bailey or Cueto emerge sooner than expected) and I would prefer the team pass on any of that.

08-29-2007, 08:11 AM
mth, I sure hope the Reds do more than look for NRI fixes. I'm not opposed to some dumpster diving, but the right arms would be worth a few pounds of flesh.

Agreed. You have to kiss a lot of frogs to find a prince. I think this has been one of Wayne's tactics: find a frog, at least put a crown on him and see who has an acceptable dowry and princess.

Just make sure Doc K has a stock of Compound W on hand.