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flyer85
08-29-2007, 01:15 PM
from over at BP

1. Jay Bruce, Reds
Age: 20.4
Hitting: .325/.379/.586 at High-A (67 G), .333/.405/.652 at Double-A (16 G), .309/.361/.566 at Triple-A (47 G)

For those that were wondering, let's make it official–-Jay Bruce is too good for the minor leagues. He started the year in the Florida State League, a perfectly fine assignment for a second-year player, and he's now in Triple-A; neither of his two promotions have had any effect on his productivity. That's an enormous level of production for a player who doesn't turn 21 until around Opening Day of next year. With 131 strikeouts in 130 games, Bruce is probably not a .320 hitter in the big leagues, but .300 isn't hard to imagine because of his propensity for hard contact--he has 78 extra-base hits this year, and many of his doubles (he has 45 this year) are expected to turn into home runs eventually. Bruce has put on nearly 20 pounds (in a good way) since signing, and while he's holding up his end of the bargain for now in center, right field seems the likely destination. The Reds will go into 2008 with Bruce in the outfield, and he's one of the best prospects in the game.

14. Drew Stubbs, Reds
Age: 22.9
Hitting: .267/.360/.411 at Low-A (122 G)

Stubbs is a scout's dream. He's big, has tons of raw power and plus-plus speed, and is arguably the best defensive outfielder in the minor leagues. Unfortunately, there's that pesky hitting thing that's holding him back. As a college product playing in the Midwest League, 136 strikeouts in 122 games is a massive red flag, although he's made some strides in the second half, batting .301/.389/.505 in 48 games since July 1st-–but with 54 whiffs in 186 at-bats. People once talked about a Mike Cameron projection being the bottom end for Stubbs, but now it's looking more like the median.

Upton and Maybin were not part of list because they are in the majors.


Homer Bailey made a rehab start in Sarasota and got lit up. Worse, according to one observer, he didn't look as if he cared.

dougdirt
08-29-2007, 01:23 PM
I would imagine that Upton would have been #1 ahead of Bruce and Maybin #3 or #4 behind Bruce and right with Rasmus.

FIRELEFT
08-29-2007, 01:38 PM
I agree that Upton would have been #1 because of his speed.
However, I like Bruce's Bat Better than Upton's.

BRM
08-29-2007, 01:42 PM
Homer Bailey made a rehab start in Sarasota and got lit up. Worse, according to one observer, he didn't look as if he cared.

I wonder if this observer was a fan or scout?

AmarilloRed
08-29-2007, 01:44 PM
Could someone supply a link? I would like to read the whole article.

dougdirt
08-29-2007, 01:46 PM
I agree that Upton would have been #1 because of his speed.
However, I like Bruce's Bat Better than Upton's.

I like Bruce's bat quite a bit more than Upton's. I honestly can't say I have seen enough of Upton in the field to make a judgement on the other side of things, although I think both have cannons for arms. Seriously though, no other prospects in baseball come close to touching the two of them in my mind, either way you want to rank them they are 1-2 and a nice gap before you get to 3.

dougdirt
08-29-2007, 01:47 PM
Could someone supply a link? I would like to read the whole article.

Its subscriber content so you can't read the entire article.

www.baseballprospectus.com though

FIRELEFT
08-29-2007, 01:52 PM
I like Bruce's bat quite a bit more than Upton's. I honestly can't say I have seen enough of Upton in the field to make a judgement on the other side of things, although I think both have cannons for arms. Seriously though, no other prospects in baseball come close to touching the two of them in my mind, either way you want to rank them they are 1-2 and a nice gap before you get to 3.

I agree. :thumbup:

Aronchis
08-29-2007, 03:27 PM
I wonder if this observer was a fan or scout?

My guess a scout. Further proof Homer is going through some emotional turmoil this year? Would explain his stinky season from spring training on up.