PDA

View Full Version : The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks



DoogMinAmo
08-31-2007, 02:05 AM
RS: 570
RA: 607

Pythag: 64-71
Actual: 75-60

To go from a 7 game under projected record to a 15 game over record, has any team played that far over its pythag heads in recent history?

(FYI, they just recently have lost 3 of 4, so the preojection had an even larger disparity 4 days ago.)

nate
08-31-2007, 07:47 AM
Yeah, I noticed that the other day when they were playing 13 games over their Pythag.

I wonder which teams have gotten away with that kind of performance and won the division?

oneupper
08-31-2007, 08:17 AM
I think the Twins were World Champions with a negative run differential. Probably read it here or something.

Johnny Footstool
08-31-2007, 10:19 AM
I think the Twins were World Champions with a negative run differential. Probably read it here or something.

Yep. 1987 Twins: Scored 786 runs, Allowed 806 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 79-83

RedsManRick
08-31-2007, 10:29 AM
For what it's worth, one of the analysis sites did a write-up on this a week or two ago. The basic premise was that the D'Backs can sustain their winning % above their pythag b/c of the way their bullpen talent is distributed and used.

Basically, they're very good in close games because of the great players they use in those situations and they're very bad in games that get away from them because of the crappy players they use in those situations. They don't have many mediocre pitchers, just good and bad ones.

edabbs44
08-31-2007, 11:17 AM
Just shows that the theory has its flaws, just like any other.

Johnny Footstool
08-31-2007, 12:12 PM
During Brandon Webb's astonishing streak of scoreless innings, the D-Backs outscored their opponents 19-0. So there's one contribution to the Pythag discrepancy.

SteelSD
08-31-2007, 12:23 PM
For what it's worth, one of the analysis sites did a write-up on this a week or two ago. The basic premise was that the D'Backs can sustain their winning % above their pythag b/c of the way their bullpen talent is distributed and used.

Basically, they're very good in close games because of the great players they use in those situations and they're very bad in games that get away from them because of the crappy players they use in those situations. They don't have many mediocre pitchers, just good and bad ones.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/no-mirage-in-arizona/

I think that's the article you note. Could Arizona's over-performance this season be due to a combination of an inordinate amount of one-Run victories and being on the wrong end of too many blowouts? Sure. Could be.

So let's take a look at some other pythag overages...

1969 NYM: +8 Wins

Run Diff: +91
1-Run: 41-23
Blowout: 21-12

1987 MIN: +6 Wins

Run Diff: -20
1-Run: 24-22
Blowout: 22-31

1997 SFG: +10 Wins

Run Diff: -9
1-Run: 23-17
Blowout: 18-23

2001 SEA: +7 Wins

Run Diff: +300
1-Run: 26-12
Blowout: 34-10

2004 NYY: +12 Wins

Run Diff: +89
1-Run: 24-16
Blowout: 27-28

2004 CIN: +9 Wins

Run Diff: -157
1-Run: 25-20
Blowout: 11-35

2005 SDP: +5 Wins

Run Diff: -42
1-Run: 29-20
Blowout: 21-23

2007 ARZ: +11 Wins

Run Diff: -37
1-Run: 30-16
Blowout: 13-23

Wish I had time to follow through with an analysis here, but work calls. Anyone else, feel free.

cincrazy
08-31-2007, 12:26 PM
I think I read somewhere that the D-backs had lost three games by a 30-0 score, or something of that sort. It's been a really strange baseball season as far as statistics are concerned, and I love it!

RedsManRick
08-31-2007, 01:16 PM
One important thing with Pythag is that it has a standard deviation of something like 4 games. We would pretty much expect at least 1 team a year to be two standard deviations or more off their pythag. So, while it's unlikely for any particular team to be so far off, it's quite likely that there will be teams who vary significantly.

cincinnati chili
09-02-2007, 02:32 PM
It's a good theory, as Rick suggests. There are always outliers in good theories.

Last year's Cleveland Indians - 78-84, Scored 870 runs, Allowed 782 runs (Pythagorean W-L: 89-73).

They were a good bet to improve their record this year.

BuckeyeRedleg
09-02-2007, 02:38 PM
It's a good theory, as Rick suggests. There are always outliers in good theories.

Last year's Cleveland Indians - 78-84, Scored 870 runs, Allowed 782 runs (Pythagorean W-L: 89-73).

They were a good bet to improve their record this year.

This was the reason I laid down $20 last offseason in Vegas for the Indians to win this year's World Series.

I got the Indians at 40-1 odds and the Brewers for 75-1 odds. I was counting on a healthy Sheets when I gambled on the Brewers. I guess they still have a shot.

Cedric
09-02-2007, 03:25 PM
I think either a dominant bullpen or a bad bullpen sways a Pythagorean. The Indians of last year fit that.