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Tom Servo
08-31-2007, 02:22 PM
I think we all know that what the Reds ballclub lacks and has lacked for years is pitching, both starting and relieving. What pitchers would you look to acquire this upcoming offseason if you are Wayne Krivsky?

For the sake of realism try and look for guys who are free agents, guys who are part of a surplus on a team, guys who have not lived up to their current team's expectations, or guys stuck in the minors who deserve a shot.

KronoRed
08-31-2007, 03:23 PM
It would almost certainly have to be someone in a trade, the FA market for starting pitchers has gone haywire.

The Red Sox seem overloaded with starters

DoogMinAmo
08-31-2007, 04:48 PM
It would almost certainly have to be someone in a trade, the FA market for starting pitchers has gone haywire.

The Red Sox seem overloaded with starters

Wayne seemed to do pretty well last time he helped them out with their glut. The truth of the matter is unless the Reds sacrifice some offense via a trade, they will not get any pitching this off season. Their only hope is the continued development of the revamped farm system, which will take until 2009 to really affect the majors.

I have a sneaking suspicion the Reds will continue to tread water until the 2008 offseason, which, coupled with some rising stars, the Reds will make some free agent splashes to restock the team ala the Indians when they picked up Millwood and then Byrd. This might make some upset next year, but I see enough of a light at the end of the tunnel with watching this current team to remain patient, at least for one more year.

mth123
08-31-2007, 09:45 PM
I think we all know that what the Reds ballclub lacks and has lacked for years is pitching, both starting and relieving. What pitchers would you look to acquire this upcoming offseason if you are Wayne Krivsky?

For the sake of realism try and look for guys who are free agents, guys who are part of a surplus on a team, guys who have not lived up to their current team's expectations, or guys stuck in the minors who deserve a shot.

Quick list. Some will cost more than others.

Daniel Cabrera - Disappointment in Balt
Brian Bruney - Closer potential had a bad year in NY and has been passed by all the young studs. Should be cheap.
Kevin Slowey - Have Depth, Need Hitting
Michael Wuertz - Lost in the Shuffle, Could close here
Juan Cruz - Never gets a role with a shot
Jonathan Meloan - LA up and comer at a loaded spot. LA Needs Bats.
Kevin Corriea - Could start but still useful in the pen if he fails
Renyel Pinto - Looking for lightning in a bottle here.
Aaron Heilman - Wants To Start, Mets won't do it and he could ask out.
Luis Ayala - 8th Inning possibility coming back from TJ and should be better in 2008.
Frank Francisco - See Ayala
Brian Fuentes - Corpas emergence will have Col shopping him.
Jair Jurjens - Detroit is loaded.

edabbs44
09-01-2007, 12:27 AM
Unless Cincy commits to young pitching through the draft and international markets, their staff will likely always blow. The affordable pitchers will not get this team to where they need to be.

Wayne is like the guy who goes Christmas shopping on December 26th to save money and tells his kids that Santa came a few days late. Except December 25th is the winter meetings and we are his kids.

Next year, expect Kent Mercker and Brian Bruney under the tree on the morning of the 27th.

WVRedsFan
09-01-2007, 12:49 AM
Unless Cincy commits to young pitching through the draft and international markets, their staff will likely always blow. The affordable pitchers will not get this team to where they need to be.

Wayne is like the guy who goes Christmas shopping on December 26th to save money and tells his kids that Santa came a few days late. Except December 25th is the winter meetings and we are his kids.

Next year, expect Kent Mercker and Brian Bruney under the tree on the morning of the 27th.

As I commented in the game thread, the difference between the Reds and the Cardinals is good decisions. Ankiel? Luck? Franklin? Luck? I could go on. They spend some money and do it wisely. They get results. We tie our wagon to Mike Stanton and Eddie Guardado. They trade for pitchers with an upside and have Dave Duncan to help improve their craft. We get Majewski, Stanton, and Saarloos and Dick Pole...well, who knows how good he is?

Krivsky has made some good decisions, but Phillips and Arroyo are not enough. You need pitching and that doesn't mean throwing whatever is cheap up against the wall to see if it sticks. Yes, the situation was bad before, but it doesn't seem to be getting much better and every day that Mike Stanton, Eddie Guradado, and a host of others stay on the roster is one more day the Reds will not really compete.

paulrichjr
09-01-2007, 11:30 AM
Unless Cincy commits to young pitching through the draft and international markets, their staff will likely always blow. The affordable pitchers will not get this team to where they need to be.

Wayne is like the guy who goes Christmas shopping on December 26th to save money and tells his kids that Santa came a few days late. Except December 25th is the winter meetings and we are his kids.

Next year, expect Kent Mercker and Brian Bruney under the tree on the morning of the 27th.

I'm not really sure that I agree with this post. Wayne has made a lot of moves (who has made more than him since he took over?) And most of these moves have turned out to be good ones. I don't know of any free agent last year that I was for him signing and I don't remember any pitchers available via trade last winter that would have made a huge difference. Young quality pitching rarely gets traded. I personally have no desire to see the Reds give contracts out like the Cubs did last year to players that in my opinion will help this team very little.

I will agree that international scouting and the farm system is where we must find our pitching. Time is what we have to give WayneK. That is something that few GMs get.

edabbs44
09-01-2007, 02:54 PM
I'm not really sure that I agree with this post. Wayne has made a lot of moves (who has made more than him since he took over?) And most of these moves have turned out to be good ones. I don't know of any free agent last year that I was for him signing and I don't remember any pitchers available via trade last winter that would have made a huge difference. Young quality pitching rarely gets traded. I personally have no desire to see the Reds give contracts out like the Cubs did last year to players that in my opinion will help this team very little.

I will agree that international scouting and the farm system is where we must find our pitching. Time is what we have to give WayneK. That is something that few GMs get.

Wayne has made a lot of moves, and MOST have been good ones? Come on...I know he's had a few winners, but for every Hamilton there's a Yan, Mays and Lohse. For every Phillips, there's a Stanton, Majewski and Kim. Let's not get too excited.

But Wayne has had close to two full seasons and two drafts, and I have not seen a true direction towards pitching in the amateur ranks. They had shots at some top notch pitchers in those drafts and instead went for position players. Not exactly what you need to do if you want to get stronger in the pitching realm.

nate
09-01-2007, 03:13 PM
But Wayne has had close to two full seasons and two drafts, and I have not seen a true direction towards pitching in the amateur ranks. They had shots at some top notch pitchers in those drafts and instead went for position players. Not exactly what you need to do if you want to get stronger in the pitching realm.

I disagree, he's acquired Smit, Maloney, McBeth, Thompson, Burton, Coutlangus via trade/rule 5 and 55 of his 103 draft picks were pitchers. Out of those 55, 11 were picked in the first 10 rounds. 34 of them have signed.

So basically half of his draft picks have been pitchers.

edabbs44
09-01-2007, 04:29 PM
I disagree, he's acquired Smit, Maloney, McBeth, Thompson, Burton, Coutlangus via trade/rule 5 and 55 of his 103 draft picks were pitchers. Out of those 55, 11 were picked in the first 10 rounds. 34 of them have signed.

So basically half of his draft picks have been pitchers.

Half his picks? Wonderful. Let me know how many we should be truly excited about. I'm not sure if there are any right now. Everyone was already ordering their Watson jerseys in May...now no one wants to even bring his name up since he moved up to High A.

Most of the other names you threw out there, I'm not overly impressed with. Smit is pitching better mostly b/c he was dropped a class. Look at what he was doing before he was cut loose. Maloney looks good. McBeth was the second coming before he got beaten back to Louisville. Thompson is a ways off. Burton needs to walk less, but he has looked solid. The same for Couter. Relievers can't have walk rates like those two and be successful over a long period of time.

Drew Stubbs over Tim Lincecum. Sean Watson over Brett Anderson. Devin Mesoraco over Rick Porcello.

Reverse those three and the future of the Cincinnati pitching would look a hell of a lot brighter. And money definitely had something to do with 2 out of the three selections. Anderson was projected to go 1st round and went a few picks after Watson for $300k more. Porcello's money was Stanton + Mesoraco.

If they want to really get some top pitching, they're gonna have to pay. Whether it's $50 million to a FA, a $2 million bonus to some 17 year old from the Dominican or over slot money to a draft pick, it has to happen. But if they want to piss away millions on mediocre pitchers like Lohse and Stanton, then they're not going to get to where they need to be.

nate
09-01-2007, 05:37 PM
Everyone was already ordering their Watson jerseys in May...now no one wants to even bring his name up since he moved up to High A.

Nope, can't have any setbacks, development. All progress must be forward and fast!


Smit is pitching better mostly b/c he was dropped a class. Look at what he was doing before he was cut loose.

And that's wrong, because?


McBeth was the second coming before he got beaten back to Louisville.

And he's been pretty good down there, hasn't he?


Thompson is a ways off.

And?


Drew Stubbs over Tim Lincecum. Sean Watson over Brett Anderson. Devin Mesoraco over Rick Porcello.

So? Lots of teams passed over those players.


Reverse those three and the future of the Cincinnati pitching would look a hell of a lot brighter.

Maybe. I think its brighter than it was in early February, 2006.

Regarding all this. I don't care if it takes a season or two for advancement. Your exact statement was:


I have not seen a true direction towards pitching in the amateur ranks

Well, I do. There _is_ improvement. There is deeper pitching lower down in the organization.

It might not be _as good_ as you want and it might not have _as high_ a ceiling as you want and it might not be here _as soon_ as you want but it is an improvement over what we had before.

Dan-O and Jimbo's _top picks_ may've been flashier than Wayne's but I'd rather have a team of average pitchers than one stud and 4 cruds.


If they want to really get some top pitching, they're gonna have to pay. Whether it's $50 million to a FA, a $2 million bonus to some 17 year old from the Dominican or over slot money to a draft pick, it has to happen.

Great. Who?

Now that Zambrano's locked up we're down to stems and seeds in the FA market.

Kyle Lohse will look like a bargain this offseason.

If he's your 5th starter though, I'd say you're in pretty good shape.

edabbs44
09-01-2007, 06:14 PM
Great. Who?

Now that Zambrano's locked up we're down to stems and seeds in the FA market.

Kyle Lohse will look like a bargain this offseason.

If he's your 5th starter though, I'd say you're in pretty good shape.

I think that was last off-season's rallying cry, if I'm not mistaken.

You ask who? That's Wayne's job. If he can't find pitching, then he should find a new job.

nate
09-02-2007, 10:20 AM
I think that was last off-season's rallying cry, if I'm not mistaken.

No chance of it being true, eh?


You ask who? That's Wayne's job. If he can't find pitching, then he should find a new job.

It would make your argument more convincing if you told us which arms you thought he should go after. At the very least, it would be more stimulating than the constant Welly-donning spleen vent that occurs at the mere suggestion Wayne is doing an "OK" job.

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 10:45 AM
No chance of it being true, eh?

It didn't work out this year.


It would make your argument more convincing if you told us which arms you thought he should go after. At the very least, it would be more stimulating than the constant Welly-donning spleen vent that occurs at the mere suggestion Wayne is doing an "OK" job.

I remember this past off-season's hysterics when Lilly and Meche were signed. Their sub-4.00 ERAs would have slotted in nicely.

I've already said that I would have been all for Lincecum, Anderson and Porcello in the past 2 drafts.

But for me to say who he should "go after" is a little much to ask. I don't know who is available. I don't know who he has a shot at getting. I've been dying for him to make a move for Scott Baker after he was getting abused last season. No clue if he was ever available. But he seems to be putting it together. I wish he was putting it together in Cincy.

You look at a weak potential FA market for pitching and now Wayne has his pat excuse: "There's no one out there." If the market was strong, the pat excuse changes to: "The market is crazy. No way can Wayne afford anyone." Someone who is pro-Wayne needs to tell me how they expect him to acquire enough pitching to compete. I only hear excuses.

Let me ask you this. If a large corporation starts to go under, does the CEO ask it's investors "Well, what do you want me to do? Labor in China is getting more expensive and the price of supplies is going through the roof. Maybe next year?" Absolutely not. The investors basically either bail on the corporation or they demand new leadership.

That's why I think the whole "Well, who do you want Wayne to get?" argument is weak. I want him to get effective pitching. If he can't, get rid of him and find someone who can. He was hired to make the team a winner. It's his job.

nate
09-02-2007, 12:35 PM
It didn't work out this year.

That there was a poor free agent market last year didn't work out for the Reds this year?

That doesn't make sense.


I remember this past off-season's hysterics when Lilly and Meche were signed. Their sub-4.00 ERAs would have slotted in nicely.

Not by me. Of course, in hindsight, they look like great signings when comparing this year to their previous seasons.


I've already said that I would have been all for Lincecum, Anderson and Porcello in the past 2 drafts.

OK, got it!


But for me to say who he should "go after" is a little much to ask. I don't know who is available. I don't know who he has a shot at getting. I've been dying for him to make a move for Scott Baker after he was getting abused last season. No clue if he was ever available. But he seems to be putting it together. I wish he was putting it together in Cincy.

Then we could hear the "Wayne is married to the Twins" chorus in a command performance!

You can look at the FA list (http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagency.php) and see if there are any guys you'd like to have here.

Jeremy Affeldt, Carlos Silva, Joel Piniero, a certain Kyle Lohse...those are the kind of dudes on that list.

Or take a chance on Kerry Wood? Kris Benson, Matt Clement?


You look at a weak potential FA market for pitching and now Wayne has his pat excuse: "There's no one out there." If the market was strong, the pat excuse changes to: "The market is crazy. No way can Wayne afford anyone."

More like "pat hyperbole."


Someone who is pro-Wayne needs to tell me how they expect him to acquire enough pitching to compete. I only hear excuses.

I think he deserves more than a year and half to implement his plan. But I think he'll acquire it via trade. One of Dunn/Griffey/Votto/ and perhaps EE/AGon. Maybe one of those guys will get you Scott Baker. Maybe he'll sign a FA. Maybe he'll get rid of some of the BP chaff.


That's why I think the whole "Well, who do you want Wayne to get?" argument is weak. I want him to get effective pitching. If he can't, get rid of him and find someone who can. He was hired to make the team a winner. It's his job.

Its not an argument. It makes for much better discussion than "Wayne sucks, he hasn't made this ocean liner turn on dime."

It takes more than a single offseason and two drafts to turn a team around, even for the A's and Tigers.

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 12:47 PM
The Wayne apologists sing in unison, "He hasn't had enough time." Fine...let me know when he's had enough. I know some members of Team Wayne said that last winter was his limit. The it was the end of ST. Then the ASB. Now they want more.

Just let me know when enough is enough. I know I've had enough. But if it takes some a little longer to see it, then so be it.

RedlegJake
09-02-2007, 02:24 PM
You really think 2 years is enough?
I do see a direction and its coming in the young guys. WK's mistakes have all been in the older guys he brought in for the "now" part of the equation in the bully.

I'm looking ahead - Salmon, Roenicke, Viola, Pelland, Medina, Ramon Ramirez, Aasadorian, Watson (I still think he's solid albeit slower than we hoped in developing) - all are bright future possibilities to help out Coutlangus, Bray and Burton. Starting pitching remains the greatest need and I happen to believe Homer will end up a strong reliever ala Zack Greinke rather than the starter we hoped for. Maloney, Livingston, and Shearn give us 1 maybe 2 end of rotation guys. Belisle is a strong long reliever-spot starter but isn't a regular rotation guy imo. Cueto is the one guy that may be a reasonably good third starter but Wayne must find 2 mid rotation starters to bolster the rotation before Harang and Arroyo are gone.

Down the line Daryl Thompson may pan out, or LeCure or Wood. Starting remains thin in the minors - it's the one area WK has to address successfully.

With Hamilton, Dunn, Griffey, Hopper, Keppinger, EE, Phillips, Votto, Hatteberg, Gonzo, Valentin, Cantu and Bruce the offense is capable. Future guys like Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Stubbs (who looks like he is finally learning how to hit at least well enough to make his defensive ability and speed valuable) - well, I think the future is looking good.

The winter and next season is the pivotal period for Wayne's regime. Who will end up managing (I like Mac but whoever it is it must be the right pick - the Reds can't afford to blow this choice) How he handles Dunn's option and possible trade or extension, will he pick up Hatte? Trade Votto? Will he find another player or two from rule 5 or another team's castoffs that step up? Will he trade EE and if he does will the return be good enough? Will he find another pair of starters that can be at least league average? Who will he draft with a reasonably good draft position next spring?

I think this team can compete in '08 and especially in '09 but the moves WK makes this off season and in the summer of '08 will be critical for the next several years.

The defense WK wanted finally seems to be coming together - its been really good for last couple months - a big improvement. The offense has been better than I thought it would. Harang is a true ace and Arroyo a solid starter. The bullpen has a couple of bright spots despite its overall record this year. There are guys in the pipeline who look to be legitimate.

It's really hard to be optimistic after the last decade of futility but I do see a brighter future. I really believe WK has improved the Reds looking forward; he has laid the groundwork. Now he is arriving at the crux of it. He'll be judged a success or failure based on his decisions in the next 12 months.

westofyou
09-02-2007, 02:41 PM
The Wayne apologists sing in unison, "He hasn't had enough time." Fine...let me know when he's had enough. I know some members of Team Wayne said that last winter was his limit. The it was the end of ST. Then the ASB. Now they want more.

Just let me know when enough is enough. I know I've had enough. But if it takes some a little longer to see it, then so be it.

"Wayne Apologists"

"Team Wayne"

What a load of crud...:rolleyes:

nate
09-02-2007, 02:56 PM
The Wayne apologists sing in unison, "He hasn't had enough time." Fine...let me know when he's had enough. I know some members of Team Wayne said that last winter was his limit. The it was the end of ST. Then the ASB. Now they want more.

Just let me know when enough is enough. I know I've had enough. But if it takes some a little longer to see it, then so be it.

And the Wayne bashers sing in unison "he's had enough time, where's our WS trophy???!!!" Fine, fire him and lets get another GM in here with the understanding that we start winning right now (regardless if we're actually in baseball season) or face the wrath of an army of keyboard warriors so fearsome that their invective, if harnessed and converted to energy, could toast bread.

Lightly.

Quite honestly, if you substituted _any_ GM for Wayne, I don't think they'd have the Reds in a radically different position than they are right now.

GAC
09-02-2007, 03:02 PM
The Wayne apologists sing in unison, "He hasn't had enough time." Fine...let me know when he's had enough. I know some members of Team Wayne said that last winter was his limit. The it was the end of ST. Then the ASB.

That's ridiculous. Show me where any of his so-called "apologists" said this? No one, with any common sense and objectivity, would expect to see the immediate results in young pitcher development that you demand. No one.

First you say this....


But for me to say who he should "go after" is a little much to ask. I don't know who is available.

So if you don't know who he should go after or who is available, then why are you qualified to judge/condem what he was done? And I am referring specifically to the restocking/rebuilding of this farm system from the lowest levels on up, and in reference to young arms?

Yet you have been very quick to do so.

Then you state this....


I've already said that I would have been all for Lincecum, Anderson and Porcello in the past 2 drafts.

Then how long (time-wise) should ANY GM be allowed in order to see advancement/development of those young arms once they are drafted? They are all going to enter the system at the lowest level. And most will tell you that it takes longer for a young arm to develop within the farm system then a position player. Usually 4-5 years.

That is the point these so-called Krivsky "apologists" are trying to get people like you to see when it comes to a time frame.

Now just because it wasn't those young kids that YOU think they should have gotten, does not prove his drafts were useless, nor will bear any future fruit. You seem to have already written off any young arms Krivsky has drafted. Based on what criteria?

There is no full proof way one can accurately gauge or project how an 18 yr old is going to perform - at either the farm system level or the ML level. It's a crapshoot. Yet you are willing to throw millions at these kids when it's just as risky IMHO.

High school stats mean squat when it comes to trying to chart future success. Sure, it may help you as far as if they are worth taking a shot at or not, but are you taking into consideration the level of the talent they was competing against, the league they were pitching in, etc?


That's Wayne's job. If he can't find pitching, then he should find a new job.

Using your criteria we'd be changing GMs every year. ;)

No GM is going to take the job if they have no chance to implement a plan or changes that need to be made. Why would they?

Aronchis
09-02-2007, 05:55 PM
Most of the young pitching we are watching closely in the minors: Bailey,Cueto,Pelland,Viola didn't come from Krivsky's tenure. He did add Roenicke who is a interesting pen arm.

Krivsky hasn't drafted a overly sizeable amount of pitching that are clearcut starters, they could go either way. He clearly thinks that the group above is going to fill in the gaps(in the entire staff) at some point in the near future which is why Harang/Arroyo were signed to long term deals. While he drafts his defensive wiz's like Stubbs and Mes.

Now the defensive part, is more on Cast and his desire to win now. Slowly moving defensively parts out to keep a respectable offense rather than burning it down to offensive weakness due to impatience. I would argue the Cantu trade was also made to keep up the offense's GAB tendencies.

pedro
09-02-2007, 06:15 PM
"Wayne Apologists"

"Team Wayne"

What a load of crud...:rolleyes:

http://nomas-nyc.com/uploaded_images/images-1-770197.jpg

GAC
09-02-2007, 06:41 PM
Most of the young pitching we are watching closely in the minors: Bailey,Cueto,Pelland,Viola didn't come from Krivsky's tenure. He did add Roenicke who is a interesting pen arm.

That's true:but that shouldn't be construed as a "knock"or negative against Krivsky simply because of those kids that were in the system when he was hired last year.

And this gets back to my earlier point too - when were these kids drafted, and how long have they been in the system? And yet we could also safely assume that they aren't ML ready either.


Krivsky hasn't drafted a overly sizeable amount of pitching that are clearcut starters, they could go either way. He clearly thinks that the group above is going to fill in the gaps(in the entire staff) at some point in the near future which is why Harang/Arroyo were signed to long term deals.

I don't know if I agree with that. The reason he signed Harang (at well below market value mind you), and Arroyo, was simply because of their performance to date, the market, and he simply couldn't let quality pitching get away. Most GMs wouldn't allow that to happen if they could avoid it.

But I certainlyam not going to hold it against a GM for using or taking advantage of players that were already within the organization when hired.

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 07:39 PM
And the Wayne bashers sing in unison "he's had enough time, where's our WS trophy???!!!" Fine, fire him and lets get another GM in here with the understanding that we start winning right now (regardless if we're actually in baseball season) or face the wrath of an army of keyboard warriors so fearsome that their invective, if harnessed and converted to energy, could toast bread.

Lightly.

Quite honestly, if you substituted _any_ GM for Wayne, I don't think they'd have the Reds in a radically different position than they are right now.

Nope. Never expected a WS trophy, or even a playoff berth in this time period. Like I said before, you want him to have more time and it appears that he'll be getting it. Time will tell what happens. Hopefully he turns this team into a winner. I don't see it happening.

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 07:39 PM
"Wayne Apologists"

"Team Wayne"

What a load of crud...:rolleyes:

Tremendous post.

nate
09-02-2007, 08:03 PM
Nope. Never expected a WS trophy, or even a playoff berth in this time period. Like I said before, you want him to have more time and it appears that he'll be getting it. Time will tell what happens. Hopefully he turns this team into a winner. I don't see it happening.

I'm sure there was similar sentiment in Detroit from 2003-2004.

How'd that work out?

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 08:15 PM
That's ridiculous. Show me where any of his so-called "apologists" said this? No one, with any common sense and objectivity, would expect to see the immediate results in young pitcher development that you demand. No one.

I wish I had the time and energy to find those examples...but I will try.


So if you don't know who he should go after or who is available, then why are you qualified to judge/condem what he was done? And I am referring specifically to the restocking/rebuilding of this farm system from the lowest levels on up, and in reference to young arms?

I wouldn't say I am "qualified" to "judge/condemn" where it actually matters (i.e., performance evaluation he gets from Bob, whether or not he gets a contract extension). I think I am more than qualified to state my opinion. Most people are. Opinions are great...most are never wrong. This guy hasn't impressed me one bit. My opinion. Prove to me that he has done a good job. It's all subjective.


Then how long (time-wise) should ANY GM be allowed in order to see advancement/development of those young arms once they are drafted? They are all going to enter the system at the lowest level. And most will tell you that it takes longer for a young arm to develop within the farm system then a position player. Usually 4-5 years.]

That is the point these so-called Krivsky "apologists" are trying to get people like you to see when it comes to a time frame.

OK...my issue is that we might be 4-5 years from now and say "My Lord, this guy has actually destroyed this team beyond repair. He should have gotten the boot years ago." It is my feeling that the scenario mentioned above is a possibility. If you, Bob and others want to take that risk, then fine. He hasn't shown me enough that I believe he deserves that chance. Again..my opinion.

But I guess any GM should get a 4-5 year grace period from hire date? I guess all they have to do is claim that they have "a plan".


Now just because it wasn't those young kids that YOU think they should have gotten, does not prove his drafts were useless, nor will bear any future fruit. You seem to have already written off any young arms Krivsky has drafted. Based on what criteria?

I might be wrong in the long run, but I would obviously like to have seen a little more progression from some of last year's DPs. Sean Watson was God's gift earlier this year...now his name has been virtually banished from the board. Same with Ravin.


There is no full proof way one can accurately gauge or project how an 18 yr old is going to perform - at either the farm system level or the ML level. It's a crapshoot. Yet you are willing to throw millions at these kids when it's just as risky IMHO.

High school stats mean squat when it comes to trying to chart future success. Sure, it may help you as far as if they are worth taking a shot at or not, but are you taking into consideration the level of the talent they was competing against, the league they were pitching in, etc?

For the most part, I believe the experts when it comes to these drafts. Obviously the draft is a crapshoot, but I'd rather bet on the shorter odds than the long shots. And I'd rather throw millions at a top HS/college pitcher than Mike Stanton, Kyle Lohse and Jeff Conine. But that's just my opinion.



Using your criteria we'd be changing GMs every year. ;)

No GM is going to take the job if they have no chance to implement a plan or changes that need to be made. Why would they?

Wayne has had plenty of time to implement a plan. I don't think anyone has a clue what that plan is. He claims it's "pitching and defense", yet those haven't been the strengths of this team. I've seen him pass on some of the best pitchers in the draft. I haven't seen him sign young intl arms.

I wish someone would just ask him where he plans to get pitching for this team. That is my biggest question. If the FA market is too expensive to even get a middle tier guy like Meche or Lilly, and you are going to pass on the best arms in the draft like Lincecum and Porcello, then what is the plan? To just pick up dozens of retreads each year and hope to get lucky? I just don't see it at all.

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 08:26 PM
I'm sure there was similar sentiment in Detroit from 2003-2004.

How'd that work out?

Dombrowski has had 5 drafts since taking over as GM. He has taken Kyle Sleeth (#6 overall ranking), Justin Verlander (#7 overall ranking), Andrew Miller (#1 overall ranking) and Rick Porcello (#4 overall ranking) in 4 of the first rounds. Pretty much a best pitcher on the board philosophy. The only non-pitcher taken in the 1st was Cameron Maybin.

Totally different mentality than what I've seen from the Cincy FO, and a much more desirable one for me. But that's just my opinion.

The Baumer
09-02-2007, 08:31 PM
If only we had the GM with the determination and gravitas to field this 2008 Opening Day lineup:

C - Victor Martinez
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Alex Rodriguez
3B - Aramis Ramirez
LF - Hideki Matsui
CF - Carlos Beltran
RF - Vladimir Guerrero
P - Johan Santana

I'm tired of Krivsky settling for the Conines and Hattebergs. Our next GM needs to go get some real talent in here.

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 08:36 PM
If only we had the GM with the determination and gravitas to field this 2008 Opening Day lineup:

C - Victor Martinez
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Alex Rodriguez
3B - Aramis Ramirez
LF - Hideki Matsui
CF - Carlos Beltran
RF - Vladimir Guerrero
P - Johan Santana

I'm tired of Krivsky settling for the Conines and Hattebergs. Our next GM needs to go get some real talent in here.

Krivsky can do so much better than Hideki in LF.

nate
09-02-2007, 08:57 PM
Dombrowski has had 5 drafts since taking over as GM. He has taken Kyle Sleeth (#6 overall ranking), Justin Verlander (#7 overall ranking), Andrew Miller (#1 overall ranking) and Rick Porcello (#4 overall ranking) in 4 of the first rounds. Pretty much a best pitcher on the board philosophy. The only non-pitcher taken in the 1st was Cameron Maybin.

Totally different mentality than what I've seen from the Cincy FO, and a much more desirable one for me. But that's just my opinion.

Sweet.

How many top 7 picks (the lowest pick Dombrowski had that _you_ mentioned) has Wayne had?

You'll be positively beside yourself if the Reds find themselves in the position of having a top 7 pick 5 years in a row.

Aronchis
09-02-2007, 09:03 PM
That's true:but that shouldn't be construed as a "knock"or negative against Krivsky simply because of those kids that were in the system when he was hired last year.

And this gets back to my earlier point too - when were these kids drafted, and how long have they been in the system? And yet we could also safely assume that they aren't ML ready either.



I don't know if I agree with that. The reason he signed Harang (at well below market value mind you), and Arroyo, was simply because of their performance to date, the market, and he simply couldn't let quality pitching get away. Most GMs wouldn't allow that to happen if they could avoid it.

But I certainlyam not going to hold it against a GM for using or taking advantage of players that were already within the organization when hired.

True, but Krivsky's willingness to sign Arroyo after a career year looks suspect at first. But considering the owner and how highly he values Bailey and Cueto(he was getting pimped highly before the 2006 season) for example, signing to the long term deal felt right. Obviously Bailey ran into a roadblock this year for any number of reasons, but if he gets back on track, with Cueto's developments, that means gains for the major league team. Ditto with the bullpen guys.

If Krivsky felt there was no pitching down there, Arroyo would be gone for a younger arm.

Wayne has a nasty balancing act he might not live to see through.

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 09:04 PM
Sweet.

How many top 7 picks (the lowest pick Dombrowski had that _you_ mentioned) has Wayne had?

You'll be positively beside yourself if the Reds find themselves in the position of having a top 7 pick 5 years in a row.

Wayne passed on the #2 ranked pitcher in both drafts.

Plus, Dombrowski picked much later than 7th this past year and still took the #2 rated pitcher.

nate
09-02-2007, 09:39 PM
Wayne passed on the #2 ranked pitcher in both drafts.

Plus, Dombrowski picked much later than 7th this past year and still took the #2 rated pitcher.

Since we didn't pick at #2, just a guess tells me a lot of other GMs did the same.

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 09:52 PM
Since we didn't pick at #2, just a guess tells me a lot of other GMs did the same.

The "other GMs" excuse is becoming a little faded.

Do all of those "other GMs" cringe and watch while pitchers like Meche and Lilly demand $10 million per year, instead spending their money on Stanton and Lohse?

The Cubs passed on Porcello and took Vitters this year. They can afford to drop $50-60 million on a FA pitcher without blinking. Can Cincy? The Cubs don't need the draft to accumulate pitching. Smaller markets do.

Did any of those "other GMs" who passed on Lincecum and Porcello still take pitchers? LA passed on Lincecum last year and took Kershaw. I don't think they're exactly crying.

westofyou
09-02-2007, 10:01 PM
Tremendous post.

Working with the material given me is severely limiting.

pedro
09-02-2007, 10:08 PM
Working with the material given me is severely limiting.

You sir, are no Shecky Greene. ;)

pedro
09-02-2007, 10:12 PM
The "other GMs" excuse is becoming a little faded.



So is a lot of stuff.

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 10:33 PM
So is a lot of stuff.

I agree.

edabbs44
09-02-2007, 10:35 PM
Working with the material given me is severely limiting.

That can happen when you cherry pick a few words from an entire post.

Chip R
09-02-2007, 11:50 PM
Let's keep this on topic, people.

GAC
09-03-2007, 08:29 AM
True, but Krivsky's willingness to sign Arroyo after a career year looks suspect at first.

I agree, and even stated such. I thought the extension was kind of a rash act for a pitcher who overall was barely league average and really didn't have much of a track record as a starter. But then I look at the market, what teams were signing pitchers for, the weakness in that market, and also what he did in '06 for us, and I can understand any GM's logic in making the move based on what he was seeing, as well as our need.


Obviously Bailey ran into a roadblock this year for any number of reasons, but if he gets back on track, with Cueto's developments, that means gains for the major league team. Ditto with the bullpen guys.

Bailey is one "area" where I think Krivsky kind of went back on his word. IMHO he should have never been called up. I got the opportunity to talk with Krivsky at last year's Redsfest. It was a good conversation. And when I wasn't talking with him I stood back and listened as he talked with others. But the emphasis of those discussions was pitching. He knew very well, and didn't beat around the bush, that after Harang and Arroyo, he had some huge question marks when it came to the other slots in the rotation. He talked of giving kids like Belisle and Lohse their shots. And looking at the off-season market, those were low-risk. When Bailey was brought up in the conversation he immediately stated that the kid is the "real deal" but that he was not ready (according to the Bailey's coaches), and that he wanted him to progress at a normal pace, with no pressure, through the system.

Why then did he call him up? We can only assume.

I personally think he wanted to give him a taste of ML level pitching to see where he was at. And if the kid performed relatively well, and it was prior to the trading deadline, it gave him possibly a trading chip with a guy like a Lohse who ended up being traded for a prospect.

But I think (or hope) it was a lesson learned. They cannot rush kids like Bailey and buy into the hype.

And the same with Cueto. If he continues his progress at Chattanooga I see him at Louisville next season, and maybe a late season call-up in '08.

But Cueto is a perfect example of a kid that wasn't even picked up in the draft but was signed by the Reds as a free agent. And look what he has done so far.



If Krivsky felt there was no pitching down there, Arroyo would be gone for a younger arm.

I don't think he felt there was no pitching down there; but that what was there was not ML ready. Again - our top prospect was Bailey and look how that faired. You can never have enough pitching.


Wayne has a nasty balancing act he might not live to see through.

I think Krivsky's job is alot securer then some think. I think the "win now" thinking is more Castellini's baby. It was nothing more than "PR speak"; but looking at the state of the organization he inherited, if Castellini was really serious about winning now, then he has to understand that our most dire need was starting pitching (taking more then the Harang and Arroyo signings), and it was going to take an investment of larger sums of money.

And I think the "success" of the Reds in '06, and the fact that we came close, also got them off track.

Now if Krivsky and Castellini aren't on the same page as far as what needs to be done to ensure the success of this organization more long term - and that direction is via a solid farm system - then yeah, Krivsky's days could very well be numbered.

But then we face a bigger problem.... an owner who doesn't get it. ;)

GAC
09-03-2007, 09:57 AM
I wouldn't say I am "qualified" to "judge/condemn" where it actually matters (i.e., performance evaluation he gets from Bob, whether or not he gets a contract extension). I think I am more than qualified to state my opinion. Most people are. Opinions are great...most are never wrong. This guy hasn't impressed me one bit. My opinion. Prove to me that he has done a good job. It's all subjective.

You're right - it is all subjective, including opinions. And to say that most opinions are never wrong is in and of itself very subjective. ;)

Especially when talking about a subject matter (rebuilding the farm system) that most agree takes a few years (at the least) to accomplish and SEE any type of fruit/rewards in the area of drafting/devloping young arms.

Both Bailey and Cueto were drafted in '04. That's three years ago. Are they ML ready? And again - Cueto wasn't even drafted by anyone, and was then signed as a FA by the Reds. But they are going to end up being in the farm system 4/5 years before we may see any results.

So again - how can you basically "condemn" all the young arms Krivsky has drafted this year, who will enter that system at the lowest levels, when it still too early to tell/evaluate these kids?

Just because he didn't pick up on a couple of the kids you mentioned it's a failure?

For the most part, I pretty much give any new GM a "pass" on his first year on the job. Why? Well first off, Krivsky wasn't hired until February which really doesn't give him much time to really get acclimated to the organization and the players within the system with only a month to go before ST starts.

So he is going to spend that first year examining who they have and where they are standing. And I'm not referring to those on the 40 man roster either; but to really get a feel of the "depth" of the organization from the lowest levels.

And yet in his first year he did make some sound moves, as well as some bad/risky ones.


OK...my issue is that we might be 4-5 years from now and say "My Lord, this guy has actually destroyed this team beyond repair. He should have gotten the boot years ago." It is my feeling that the scenario mentioned above is a possibility.

Yes it is a possibility. But you're addressing it already as it's a certainty. And I don't think you're being fair to not only Krivsky, but any GM who takes the job.

You cannot expect a GM to turn around a farm system - especially a farm system that was in the condition like ours as far as pitching goes - in their second year.


But I guess any GM should get a 4-5 year grace period from hire date?

You're the one calling it a "grace period", not me. I'm just simply telling you what most experts believe when it comes to drafting, developing, and moving a young arm through the minor league system. You're looking at 4-5 years of development, and not 2.

So you're telling me that none of the below young arms, drafted by Krivsky in the 1st round of the '06 draft, are going to prove to be worthwhile, or that a year later (if they were worthwhile) they should be farther up in the system of development?.....

Jamie Arneson
Cameron Bayne
Jeremy Burchett
Justin Curry
Jeremy Erben
Anthony Gressick
Kevin Gunter
John Housey
Michael Lachapelle
Geraldo Leal
Derrik Lutz
Adam Pointer
Joshua Ravin



I guess all they have to do is claim that they have "a plan".... Wayne has had plenty of time to implement a plan

Just because Castellini/Krivsky haven't taken a full page ad out in the Cincy Enquirer and laid out to the fans all the finest points of their plan (and most GMs don't make it a practice to do this)... doesn't mean they don't have one.

So lets fire Krivsky and bring in another GM... and when he doesn't show you sure signs of his plan going into the next year of his tenure we'll fire him too, bring in another guy, and just keep this revolving door going every couple of years.

And when "candidates" see that trend in Cincy - especially very viable ones - they'll laugh in the face of the owner (and their fans) because you're placing almost impossible demands on them for immediate results.


I might be wrong in the long run, but I would obviously like to have seen a little more progression from some of last year's DPs. Sean Watson was God's gift earlier this year...now his name has been virtually banished from the board. Same with Ravin.

These kids were drafted last year.

Joshua Ravin is only 19 yrs old, and is currently at Billings.

Watson was a college closer who started out at Billings last year and then got some starts at Dayton where he was up and down (inconsistent). He's now at Sarasota.

Maybe you're expecting progression of these youngsters at too fast a pace? Mabe your expectations are unrealistic when it comes to drafting HS/college pitchers?

nate
09-03-2007, 10:57 AM
The "other GMs" excuse is becoming a little faded.

As is the retort.


Do all of those "other GMs" cringe and watch while pitchers like Meche and Lilly demand $10 million per year, instead spending their money on Stanton and Lohse?

I (along with everyone else) have absolutely no idea what other GMs think.


The Cubs passed on Porcello and took Vitters this year. They can afford to drop $50-60 million on a FA pitcher without blinking. Can Cincy? The Cubs don't need the draft to accumulate pitching. Smaller markets do.

I disagree. I think every team, regardless of their "wealth" needs to accumulate pitching.


Did any of those "other GMs" who passed on Lincecum and Porcello still take pitchers? LA passed on Lincecum last year and took Kershaw. I don't think they're exactly crying.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here.

OnBaseMachine
09-03-2007, 11:06 AM
But Cueto is a perfect example of a kid that wasn't even picked up in the draft but was signed by the Reds as a free agent. And look what he has done so far.


Cueto was signed out of the Dominican Republic. That's why he wasn't drafted in the first-year amateur draft.

GAC
09-03-2007, 11:35 AM
And that is understandable. My point is that talent can be found in other means then the amateur draft.

You just made this post on the Bray thread, and I thoroughly agree. And you are more "schooled" in the knowledge of our farm system then I am; but it also helps to prove the point I am trying to make about the farms/player development. There is hope in this farm system; but one has to give it time to develop and move through that system.

And the guys you mentioned below were acquired by who?


I know it's a very small sample size (only 9.1 innings) but is anyone else as impressed with Bill Bray as I am up to this point? He has looked very good since returning from the disabled list. He looks bigger and stronger and the results have shown. His slider has been nearly unhittable at times, and his fastball has consistently hit in the 93 area. If he continues to pitch like this then I could forgive Wayne Krivsky for the trade. With Bill Bray and Jared Burton the Reds now have two young power arms at the major league level who can get hitters out on a regular basis. Throw in Brad Salmon who pitched well earlier in the year along with Marcus McBeth who I like and you have the makings of a potentially solid bullpen next season. Plus Jon Coutlangus has been solid, if not spectacular since the All-Star break.



And that's not all. Tyler Pelland has been terrific since the Reds decided to shift him to the bullpen earlier in the season. He's pitched very well (22.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 24 baserunners allowed, 9.5 K/9) at Louisville and could possibly see a stint in Cincy before the season ends (though doubtful because he isn't on the 40-man roster).



And on down in Chattanooga, Josh Roenicke, Pedro Viola, and Carlos Guevara have had great seasons. Guevara is more of a trickster (screwball is his out pitch), though Roenicke and Viola have legit stuff to be major league relievers. Roenicke is a possible future closer candidate. Look for him to debut sometime next season with the Reds IMO.



So, the potential is there for the Reds bullpen to improve. Let's just hope Wayne Krivsky allows the young guys a fair chance to prove themselves instead of going out and signing a bunch more 35+ year old washed up relievers like he has the past two seasons. Hopefully he has learned his lesson by now.

OnBaseMachine
09-03-2007, 12:28 PM
And that is understandable. My point is that talent can be found in other means then the amateur draft.

You just made this post on the Bray thread, and I thoroughly agree. And you are more "schooled" in the knowledge of our farm system then I am; but it also helps to prove the point I am trying to make about the farms/player development. There is hope in this farm system; but one has to give it time to develop and move through that system.

And the guys you mentioned below were acquired by who?

Point taken. I just thought you thought that Cueto was signed as a non-drafted free agent in the U.S. That's why I pointed out that Cueto was signed from the Dominican.

As for who acquired the guys I mentioned:

Bill Bray, Jared Burton, Jon Coutlangus, and Josh Roenicke were acquired by Wayne Krivsky.

Brad Salmon and Carlos Guevara comes from the Jim Bowden era.

Pedro Viola I'm not 100% sure about. He pitched for the DSL Reds last year, meaning Dan O'Brien probably signed him.

edabbs44
09-03-2007, 03:10 PM
You're right - it is all subjective, including opinions. And to say that most opinions are never wrong is in and of itself very subjective. ;)

Especially when talking about a subject matter (rebuilding the farm system) that most agree takes a few years (at the least) to accomplish and SEE any type of fruit/rewards in the area of drafting/devloping young arms.

Both Bailey and Cueto were drafted in '04. That's three years ago. Are they ML ready? And again - Cueto wasn't even drafted by anyone, and was then signed as a FA by the Reds. But they are going to end up being in the farm system 4/5 years before we may see any results.

So again - how can you basically "condemn" all the young arms Krivsky has drafted this year, who will enter that system at the lowest levels, when it still too early to tell/evaluate these kids?

Just because he didn't pick up on a couple of the kids you mentioned it's a failure?

For the most part, I pretty much give any new GM a "pass" on his first year on the job. Why? Well first off, Krivsky wasn't hired until February which really doesn't give him much time to really get acclimated to the organization and the players within the system with only a month to go before ST starts.

So he is going to spend that first year examining who they have and where they are standing. And I'm not referring to those on the 40 man roster either; but to really get a feel of the "depth" of the organization from the lowest levels.

And yet in his first year he did make some sound moves, as well as some bad/risky ones.



Yes it is a possibility. But you're addressing it already as it's a certainty. And I don't think you're being fair to not only Krivsky, but any GM who takes the job.

You cannot expect a GM to turn around a farm system - especially a farm system that was in the condition like ours as far as pitching goes - in their second year.



You're the one calling it a "grace period", not me. I'm just simply telling you what most experts believe when it comes to drafting, developing, and moving a young arm through the minor league system. You're looking at 4-5 years of development, and not 2.

So you're telling me that none of the below young arms, drafted by Krivsky in the 1st round of the '06 draft, are going to prove to be worthwhile, or that a year later (if they were worthwhile) they should be farther up in the system of development?.....

Jamie Arneson
Cameron Bayne
Jeremy Burchett
Justin Curry
Jeremy Erben
Anthony Gressick
Kevin Gunter
John Housey
Michael Lachapelle
Geraldo Leal
Derrik Lutz
Adam Pointer
Joshua Ravin




Just because Castellini/Krivsky haven't taken a full page ad out in the Cincy Enquirer and laid out to the fans all the finest points of their plan (and most GMs don't make it a practice to do this)... doesn't mean they don't have one.

So lets fire Krivsky and bring in another GM... and when he doesn't show you sure signs of his plan going into the next year of his tenure we'll fire him too, bring in another guy, and just keep this revolving door going every couple of years.

And when "candidates" see that trend in Cincy - especially very viable ones - they'll laugh in the face of the owner (and their fans) because you're placing almost impossible demands on them for immediate results.



These kids were drafted last year.

Joshua Ravin is only 19 yrs old, and is currently at Billings.

Watson was a college closer who started out at Billings last year and then got some starts at Dayton where he was up and down (inconsistent). He's now at Sarasota.

Maybe you're expecting progression of these youngsters at too fast a pace? Mabe your expectations are unrealistic when it comes to drafting HS/college pitchers?

I guess we can pick this discussion up in 3 years. If it is impossible to discuss a draft 1.5 years after it takes place, so be it.

Bottom line is I didn't like the fact that top of the line pitching wasn't the early focus of either draft. Everyone was gushing earlier this year about how much of a steal Watson was...now we have to wait to discuss the draft.

OK. We will pick this topic back up in 2010.

nate
09-03-2007, 03:39 PM
Bottom line is I didn't like the fact that top of the line pitching wasn't the early focus of either draft. Everyone was gushing earlier this year about how much of a steal Watson was...now we have to wait to discuss the draft.

I think what happened with Watson is that he's thrown twice as many innings this year as any previous year, including college. Even last year between college and the minors he only threw around 75 innings. This year, he's up to around 150 innings. The first 70 at Dayton were really good but the most recent 50 in Sarasota have been not so good.

So, he might be tired.

edabbs44
09-03-2007, 03:51 PM
I think what happened with Watson is that he's thrown twice as many innings this year as any previous year, including college. Even last year between college and the minors he only threw around 75 innings. This year, he's up to around 150 innings. The first 70 at Dayton were really good but the most recent 50 in Sarasota have been not so good.

So, he might be tired.

Could be...or could be the better competition. I guess we'll see in the future.

GAC
09-04-2007, 06:05 AM
Could be...or could be the better competition. I guess we'll see in the future.

And that is basically all I'm saying '44. I respect your opinion and don't want you to get the impression I am trying to give you a hard time because as I have mentioned previously I am not as "schooled" any more in the farm system as I once use to be.

Guys like you and OBM seem to stay up on it more then I currently have the time to do anymore.

And you are probably right in the sense that there were possibly a couple young arms in the draft that this organization maybe should have went after. Why they did not, that I do not know.

But I don't think we should be so quick to "judge" those pitchers that were taken since they've just entered into the system/began the development stage, and we really have no idea as to how they will work out.

All I know is that this organization, for quite some time know, has done a terrible job at developing young arms within that system. And it seems that whenever we do get a possible "top prospect" we mishandle them or try to rush them through because of our situation at the ML level.

Krivsky may very well prove not to be the man either as far as restoring/rebuilding this farm system. I just don't think one can get a solid "feel" for that in only the second year of their tenure when those he drafted at still at the lowest levels and it's hard to gauge how their future performance will be.

We can't continue to have this "rotating door" policy with GMs every couple of years. People aren't going to want the job then if there is no sense of security or timeframe to change things.

edabbs44
09-04-2007, 07:18 AM
And that is basically all I'm saying '44. I respect your opinion and don't want you to get the impression I am trying to give you a hard time because as I have mentioned previously I am not as "schooled" any more in the farm system as I once use to be.

Guys like you and OBM seem to stay up on it more then I currently have the time to do anymore.

And you are probably right in the sense that there were possibly a couple young arms in the draft that this organization maybe should have went after. Why they did not, that I do not know.

But I don't think we should be so quick to "judge" those pitchers that were taken since they've just entered into the system/began the development stage, and we really have no idea as to how they will work out.

All I know is that this organization, for quite some time know, has done a terrible job at developing young arms within that system. And it seems that whenever we do get a possible "top prospect" we mishandle them or try to rush them through because of our situation at the ML level.

Krivsky may very well prove not to be the man either as far as restoring/rebuilding this farm system. I just don't think one can get a solid "feel" for that in only the second year of their tenure when those he drafted at still at the lowest levels and it's hard to gauge how their future performance will be.

We can't continue to have this "rotating door" policy with GMs every couple of years. People aren't going to want the job then if there is no sense of security or timeframe to change things.

I'm not judging the arms that he drafted...I'm judging the approach. My opinion is that small to middle mkt teams should be loading up on the best pitching available as much as possible. Obviously not every early pick, but what's wrong with taking a few front line guys in the early rounds?

Again, that's just my opinion.

RedlegJake
09-04-2007, 08:37 AM
This has been a great thread. I fully understand edabbs position and respect it (though I still hold to the other side of the argument, his take has merit, particularly in WK's approach to the draft), while GAC and others have really laid out their side well. This thread is one example of why I enjoy Redszone so much! Critical debate with lots of points well taken from both sides, respectfully laid out, with an obvious passion for the Reds underlying both arguments.

mth123
09-09-2007, 01:09 PM
Bumping this thread to restart the discussion. In the original post Tom Servo asked the question:




I think we all know that what the Reds ballclub lacks and has lacked for years is pitching, both starting and relieving. What pitchers would you look to acquire this upcoming offseason if you are Wayne Krivsky?

For the sake of realism try and look for guys who are free agents, guys who are part of a surplus on a team, guys who have not lived up to their current team's expectations, or guys stuck in the minors who deserve a shot.

The thread got a little off track into a discussion about Wayne (I've been guilty of derailing threads in a similar manner), but I find the original question interesting and would like to see some names. I replied with the list below:


Daniel Cabrera - Disappointment in Balt
Brian Bruney - Closer potential had a bad year in NY and has been passed by all the young studs. Should be cheap.
Kevin Slowey - Have Depth, Need Hitting
Michael Wuertz - Lost in the Shuffle, Could close here
Juan Cruz - Never gets a role with a shot
Jonathan Meloan - LA up and comer at a loaded spot. LA Needs Bats.
Kevin Corriea - Could start but still useful in the pen if he fails
Renyel Pinto - Looking for lightning in a bottle here.
Aaron Heilman - Wants To Start, Mets won't do it and he could ask out.
Luis Ayala - 8th Inning possibility coming back from TJ and should be better in 2008.
Frank Francisco - See Ayala
Brian Fuentes - Corpas emergence will have Col shopping him.
Jair Jurjens - Detroit is loaded.

To this list I would add 1 Free Agent starter, while not ideal, I see one who could actually be useful if the price and length of deal is right. The inflated cost of free agents needs to be balanced against the cost of the talent the Reds would need to expend to acquire some one on the trade market. I don't mind the Reds overpaying a bit to fill needs if it helps conserve talent for further acquisitions that are more building block types. The problem last year was that the Reds spent and didn't really fill any needs.

Jon Leiber has three things going for him that could make him a useful starter to soak up 30 starts and 175 innings a year at near league average levels:

Firstly, he comes from a similar Home Run environment in Philly. No need to speculate that GABP will significantly alter him into a different pitcher. We can probably assume he will be in GABP about what he was in Philly and that he won't alter his style trying to adjust to a hitting friendly environment since he should already be used to it.

Secondly, he is a fairly extreme ground ball guy (somewhere between 1.2 and 1.5 GB per FB most of his career) who misses enough bats to suffice (somewhere between 5 and 6 Ks per nine most likely), has good control (less that 3 walks per nine is almost a given) and while a little homer prone we again shouldn't see a spike due to GABP.

Finally, he missed much of 2007 with an oblique and then a foot injury. He does have a history of nagging injuries and may miss a start here and there but its not his arm or a major concern IMO (and could possibly keep the price down though probably not). It's possible that he has a fairly rested arm and may be more effective then he has been in a while. While we all want a young up and comer, there is something to be said for getting a veteran. The Reds won't have to be as careful with a guy like this. He can be left out to "take one for the team" and soak up some innings to save the pen so that Harang and Arroyo don't have to be pushed so far start after start. If he could be had on a two year deal in the $12 to $15 Million range, it might be worthwhile (especially considering the possibility of conserving Harang and Arroyo a little more and how much money being a little more careful with them may actually save). There would probably be some salvage value at the end if he needs to be moved to make room if all the kids pan out or if the season is lost. I'd imagine a prospect similar to what the Reds acquired for Lohse could be had. I probably wouldn't go three years on him.

Please, lets restart this discussion. I remember Steel proposing Jonathan Sanchez and Ervin Santana in another thread (ideas I agree with) and other posters proposng Jon Garland, Carlos Silva and reacquiring Kyle Lohse (ideas I don't like). Maybe we could get a list and some discussion going in this thread.

Have at it.