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OnBaseMachine
09-03-2007, 06:06 PM
Ryan Howard went 0-for-4 today with three strikeouts. Why am I reporting on Howard? Because he now has 168 strikeouts in 442 atbats, making him only 27 strikeouts shy of Dunn's record of 195 set in 2004. Now strikeouts don't bother me one bit, however, I would love to see Howard set the strikeout record just to see if he gets the same treatment from announcers and fans that Dunn does.

In 2004, Dunn struckout 195 times in 568 atbats in a total of 161 games.

This year, Howard has struckout 168 times in 442 atbats in a total of 119 games (Howard has missed 18 games due to injury). He's right on pace to break the record even with the missed 18 games.

I'll update this thread after each game until the end of the season. I hope he breaks it to further prove that strikeouts are just another out.

flyer85
09-03-2007, 06:30 PM
funny thing that post all-star break Dunn has made the transformation his detractors have been looking for

Pre ASB 86G .258BA .356OBP .549LG 55R 24HR 58RBI 45BB 105K

Post ASB 49G .274BA .420OBP .555SLG 34R 12HR 35RBI 41BB 45K

Of course the Reds have missed a bit of the benefit by batting him 5th.

edabbs44
09-03-2007, 06:38 PM
Ryan Howard went 0-for-4 today with three strikeouts. Why am I reporting on Howard? Because he now has 168 strikeouts in 442 atbats, making him only 27 strikeouts shy of Dunn's record of 195 set in 2004. Now strikeouts don't bother me one bit, however, I would love to see Howard set the strikeout record just to see if he gets the same treatment from announcers and fans that Dunn does.

The whole strikeout thing on this board is ludicrous. I don't think anyone would care if Dunn made all of his outs via the K. The main problem was that he was hitting in the .230s. The Ks were magnified because of his ridiculously low BA.

Howard whiffed 180+ times last season. No one cared because his stat line read .313-58-149. A lot different than hitting in the .230s.

OnBaseMachine
09-03-2007, 06:39 PM
The whole strikeout thing on this board is ludicrous. I don't think anyone would care if Dunn made all of his outs via the K. The main problem was that he was hitting in the .230s. The Ks were magnified because of his ridiculously low BA.

Howard whiffed 180+ times last season. No one cared because his stat line read .313-58-149. A lot different than hitting in the .230s.

Dunn hit .266 the year he broke the record.

edabbs44
09-03-2007, 06:58 PM
Dunn hit .266 the year he broke the record.

That wasn't the only year he struck out an obscene amount.

OnBaseMachine
09-03-2007, 07:14 PM
That wasn't the only year he struck out an obscene amount.

No it wasn't. But he hit 40+ homers, drove in 100 or close to it, and scored 100+ runs in those years also.

CTA513
09-03-2007, 07:51 PM
If he doesn't break the record this year he will break it next year.

SteelSD
09-03-2007, 08:15 PM
funny thing that post all-star break Dunn has made the transformation his detractors have been looking for

Pre ASB 86G .258BA .356OBP .549LG 55R 24HR 58RBI 45BB 105K

Post ASB 49G .274BA .420OBP .555SLG 34R 12HR 35RBI 41BB 45K

Of course the Reds have missed a bit of the benefit by batting him 5th.

I see. So Dunn has replaced K's with Walks which raises his OBP and suppresses his gross AB totals- causing a virtual increase in Batting Average while not being on pace to acquire a single additional Hit per Game.

Been waiting for that to happen. Thus endeth the "Swing More" debate. And after all this time, it's washed away in a thread about Ryan Howard. Tsk.;)

edabbs44
09-03-2007, 09:22 PM
I see. So Dunn has replaced K's with Walks which raises his OBP and suppresses his gross AB totals- causing a virtual increase in Batting Average while not being on pace to acquire a single additional Hit per Game.

Been waiting for that to happen. Thus endeth the "Swing More" debate. And after all this time, it's washed away in a thread about Ryan Howard. Tsk.;)

Why compare 1st half vs 2nd half? Why not this entire season vs his career?

Dunn is on pace for his lowest walk total ever in a full season, while also being on pace for his 2nd highest hit total and most RBI ever.

Swing more...sweet chariot.

flyer85
09-03-2007, 09:47 PM
Why compare 1st half vs 2nd half? because Dunn was supposed to be trying a different approach, successfully implementing those kind of changes doesn't happen overnight. There has been a decided difference in Dunn at the plate. It is from a design change that has finally taken or is it merely a random fluctuation? Only time will tell.

If it a real change does it make him a much more valuable hitter?

M2
09-03-2007, 11:19 PM
Why compare 1st half vs 2nd half? Why not this entire season vs his career?

Dunn is on pace for his lowest walk total ever in a full season, while also being on pace for his 2nd highest hit total and most RBI ever.

Swing more...sweet chariot.

I suppose if you wanted to miss what's working in order to create a bogus argument for what hasn't worked for Dunn then that would be the way to do it. Me, I didn't like what you're peddling here any better than I did than when Tom Robson was pushing it.

edabbs44
09-03-2007, 11:32 PM
I suppose if you wanted to miss what's working in order to create a bogus argument for what hasn't worked for Dunn then that would be the way to do it. Me, I didn't like what you're peddling here any better than I did than when Tom Robson was pushing it.

Please elaborate.

M2
09-03-2007, 11:34 PM
Please elaborate.

Steel already did.

edabbs44
09-03-2007, 11:44 PM
Steel already did.

Got it...I see the angle.

But I still don't think anyone ever wanted Dunn to just swing at everything. If he is replacing Ks with BBs, then that's just smarter baseball. Don't swing at what you can't hit, and swing at what you can hit.

If Dunn was able to "flip a switch" at the ASB and turn Ks into walks, then what was his issue over the past few years?

M2
09-03-2007, 11:55 PM
Got it...I see the angle.

But I still don't think anyone ever wanted Dunn to just swing at everything. If he is replacing Ks with BBs, then that's just smarter baseball. Don't swing at what you can't hit, and swing at what you can hit.

If Dunn was able to "flip a switch" at the ASB and turn Ks into walks, then what was his issue over the past few years?

I'd say his biggest problem has been coaches trying to get him to swing at the wrong pitches. Tightening his swing, improving his two-strike approach, going with the pitch are all things that every hitter works on, but they need to be incorporated with Dunn's judicious eye. When he does that, when he squeezes pitchers, he's deadly.

OnBaseMachine
09-07-2007, 08:57 PM
He's at 169 coming into tonight.

OnBaseMachine
09-07-2007, 10:51 PM
Howard struckout twice tonight to put him at 171 strikeouts.

OnBaseMachine
09-08-2007, 08:11 PM
Two more strikeouts today for Howard to put him at 173.

OnBaseMachine
09-10-2007, 09:13 PM
#174 tonight.

And now 175. 20 shy of the record.

OnBaseMachine
09-11-2007, 10:16 PM
Two more strikeouts tonight for Howard to put him at 177, 18 shy of Dunn.

fearofpopvol1
09-12-2007, 02:41 AM
So that's what, a little less than 1 a game here on out? That's gotta be doable!

OnBaseMachine
09-12-2007, 08:29 PM
Howard struckout in his first atbat tonight. #178.

RedsManRick
09-12-2007, 08:33 PM
He's striking out every 3.2 AB. For 196 at his rate, he'd need 61 more PA, or 3.4 PA/G. If he plays everyday, the odds are in his favor... of breaking the record.

OnBaseMachine
09-12-2007, 08:43 PM
He's striking out every 3.2 AB. For 196 at his rate, he'd need 61 more PA, or 3.4 PA/G. If he plays everyday, the odds are in his favor... of breaking the record.

And to think he's missed roughly 20 games this year on the DL or else he'd probably already be very close to 200 strikeouts.

OnBaseMachine
09-12-2007, 10:18 PM
#179 in his last atbat.

KronoRed
09-13-2007, 02:32 AM
If the Phillies fall out of it expect him to get a lot of "rest"

Highlifeman21
09-13-2007, 11:42 AM
If the Phillies fall out of it expect him to get a lot of "rest"

Remember when the Brewers held Jose Hernandez out of the lineup over the course of the last week of the season just so he wouldn't break then Bobby Bonds' record?

M2
09-13-2007, 01:08 PM
Howard's kind of Dunnesque in attitude. I don't think he cares if he breaks the record and he'll probably insist that the Phillies don't sit him just to avoid some extra whiffs.

KronoRed
09-13-2007, 02:21 PM
Remember when the Brewers held Jose Hernandez out of the lineup over the course of the last week of the season just so he wouldn't break then Bobby Bonds' record?

Shame too, Jose was a great strikeout guy.

OnBaseMachine
09-13-2007, 11:46 PM
Number 180 tonight for Howard. 15 shy of the record.

paintmered
09-14-2007, 12:14 AM
Shame too, Jose was a great strikeout guy.

Was that his All-Star year?

KronoRed
09-14-2007, 02:11 AM
Yep, Jose came close to the record twice in 01 and 02

OnBaseMachine
09-14-2007, 11:16 PM
181 now.

OnBaseMachine
09-15-2007, 04:52 PM
182.

Highlifeman21
09-15-2007, 04:56 PM
Man, I live for this thread.

Raisor
09-15-2007, 05:00 PM
I think strikezoutz are awfulist outz everz.

Guyz like RyHo and Dunnkey are the suck.

OnBaseMachine
09-15-2007, 05:04 PM
I'm hoping Howard breaks the record because I want to see if he gets the same treatment that Dunn gets. Both are great, great, great players. One gets recognized as so while the other is continually underrated.

edabbs44
09-15-2007, 05:12 PM
I'm hoping Howard breaks the record because I want to see if he gets the same treatment that Dunn gets. Both are great, great, great players. One gets recognized as so while the other is continually underrated.

I think this thread needs to come back to reality and understand that, if Dunn didn't hit in the .230s, the Ks wouldn't be as big an issue.

I think there has been much less strikeout chatter this season than last...and my guess is that it is because he is having a much better season than in 2006.

Kc61
09-15-2007, 05:17 PM
I think this thread needs to come back to reality and understand that, if Dunn didn't hit in the .230s, the Ks wouldn't be as big an issue.

I think there has been much less strikeout chatter this season than last...and my guess is that it is because he is having a much better season than in 2006.

Or maybe it's the other way around. Maybe there's less strikeout chatter because his strikeouts have improved over last year.

Dunn is striking out less resulting in more contact, more hits, higher batting average.

Either way, Dunn as a .265 hitter has been a pleasure to watch this year, as opposed to Dunn as a .234 hitter.

edabbs44
09-15-2007, 05:20 PM
Or maybe it's the other way around. Maybe there's less strikeout chatter because his strikeouts have improved.

Dunn is striking out less resulting in more contact, more hits, higher batting average.

Either way, Dunn as a .265 hitter has been a pleasure to watch this year, as opposed to Dunn as a .240 hitter.

If that's the case then there was merit to the strikeout argument, no?

pedro
09-15-2007, 05:34 PM
The difference in Dunn's year hasn't been his batting average or the number of strike outs. The difference in between hitting .240 and hitting .265 for a guy like Dunn is about 1 hit a week. Over the course of a full season we can't tell the difference in between a guy hitting .240 and a guy hitting .265 just by watching.

Same with the K totals.

The difference for Dunn this year is that he's been much more consistent than in 2006 which not only makes it easier to appreciate what Dunn does do well and but also makes watching him much less frustrating because he hasn't suffered through any major funks.

Further I think the fact that he has hit the ball fairly consistently this year has led to the slight suppression in his walk numbers as he is more apt to swing when he's feeling like he's in the groove.

Dunn is the same guy he's always been. He's just doing it with less fluctuation this year. Maybe that's due to his new batting stance or something mental, I don't know, but it isn't because he's trying to have a higher BA or because he's trying to strike out less.

RedsManRick
09-15-2007, 06:29 PM
So, there are a few hypthesis.
1.) Higher BA because of fewer Ks.
2.) Higher BA because of good luck on balls in play
3.) Something else?

Let's look at the last 5 years.

Year: BA, K%, BABIP, HR/FB
2003: .215, 33.1%, .241, 20.8%
2004: .266, 34.4%, .321, 25.7%
2005: .247, 30.9%, .281, 22.5%
2006: .234, 34.6%, .278, 22.2%
2007: .267, 31.5%, .310, 24.1%

So, which has the strongest correlation, strikeouts with batting average or BABIP (luck) and batting average?

K% & BA: r squared = .04
BABIP & BA: r squared = .95
HR/FB & BA: r squared = .86

So basically, strikeout rate and batting average have very very little to do with each other. The fluctuations we've seen in Dunn's batting are pretty much completely explained by how often he's hitting HR and how often he's getting hits when he's putting the ball in play and not hitting HR, which tends to be luck, more-or-less (Dunn's LD% is below his career average).

This year's strikeout rate really isn't really any different that normal for Dunn. He's just getting a few more homers per flyball and a few more hits when he's not hitting those flyballs. He's not trading strikeouts for those pokes to left field -- he's trading grounders to 2B.

Last year Dunn had a LD% of 23.5%. Typical BABIP is LD% + .12. That means Dunn's expected BABIP was .355 last year. His actual BABIP was .278. Maybe it was bad luck. Maybe it was the shift. But in any case, Dunn got royally screwed on balls in play last year and that's why he batted .234, not because he struck out too much.

Raisor
09-16-2007, 10:25 AM
I think this thread needs to come back to reality and understand that, if Dunn didn't hit in the .230s, the Ks wouldn't be as big an issue.

.

Dunn hit .266 the year he broke the record. And yes, people here and in redsland thought it was a big issue.

KronoRed
09-16-2007, 02:37 PM
Dunn hit .266 the year he broke the record. And yes, people here and in redsland thought it was a big issue.

Yeah but what was his bat avg with RISP? that's what's really important

OnBaseMachine
09-16-2007, 03:56 PM
Two more strikeouts so far today to put him at 184.

Big Klu
09-17-2007, 03:35 PM
I think strikezoutz are awfulist outz everz.

Guyz like RyHo and Dunnkey are the suck.

You misspelled "teh".

WebScorpion
09-18-2007, 05:37 AM
Another one last night = 185

10 away from tying the record with 12 games left in the season.

OnBaseMachine
09-18-2007, 11:45 PM
Number 186 tonight.

Cyclone792
09-19-2007, 01:10 AM
Extra innings means extra plate appearances, which in Ryan Howard's case means extra opportunities for strikeouts. Howard racks up #187 in the top of the 12th inning tonight in St. Louis.

CTA513
09-19-2007, 02:12 AM
Extra innings means extra plate appearances, which in Ryan Howard's case means extra opportunities for strikeouts. Howard racks up #187 in the top of the 12th inning tonight in St. Louis.

#188 in the top of the 14th inning.

membengal
09-19-2007, 02:41 PM
Funniest part of last night's broadcast? Brantley admitting that he was too hard on Dunn for the Ks issue earlier in the season, and, referencing Howard, deciding that Ks just don't matter that much, it appears, when you are productive.

So, thank you, Ryan Howard, for finally making that general point that a lot of us on here have been making, in a way that one of the insane critics of Dunn could understand. Much appreciated...

flyer85
09-19-2007, 02:44 PM
Funniest part of last night's broadcast? Brantley admitting that he was too hard on Dunn for the Ks issue earlier in the season, and, referencing Howard, deciding that Ks just don't matter that much, it appears, when you are productive.

So, thank you, Ryan Howard, for finally making that general point that a lot of us on here have been making, in a way that one of the insane critics of Dunn could understand. Much appreciated...Howard struck out 181 times last year in his off-the-charts season. He seems like a lock to eclipse 200.

Chip R
09-19-2007, 02:52 PM
Funniest part of last night's broadcast? Brantley admitting that he was too hard on Dunn for the Ks issue earlier in the season, and, referencing Howard, deciding that Ks just don't matter that much, it appears, when you are productive.


What's this? A Reds broadcaster eating crow? Funny how it took an opposing player to make him figure that out when it was in front of his nose all season long.

RedsBaron
09-19-2007, 02:53 PM
I'm glad that the Phillies are still in the race for the postseason, which means they can hardly "sit" Howard so as to keep him from setting the record.
I wish Marty Brennanman was the Phillies GM. Maybe then the Reds could swap Norris Hopper to the Phillies for Howard and relieve them of a player who strikes out too much. ;)

OnBaseMachine
09-19-2007, 09:32 PM
Howard struckout in his first atbat tonight to give him 189 on the season. IIRC that ties him with Bobby Bonds for the third most strikeouts in a season.

OnBaseMachine
09-20-2007, 10:45 PM
#190 tonight for Howard.

Raisor
09-20-2007, 10:48 PM
#190 tonight for Howard.

tHE manigur should find Howard 50 dollars for ever strike out. That would rox.

Yachtzee
09-21-2007, 12:30 AM
tHE manigur should find Howard 50 dollars for ever strike out. That would rox.

Howard no has stikowt. Howard hit invisible home run.

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2007, 09:49 PM
Ryan Howard has struckout in his first three atbats tonight for strikeouts number 191, 192, and 193.

He's two shy of the record.

Chip R
09-22-2007, 09:52 PM
The question looms: Will Bud be there for the record breaker?

Raisor
09-22-2007, 09:56 PM
Somewhere Bad Fundamentals is shedding a tear.

RedsBaron
09-22-2007, 10:07 PM
I think Howard is now up to 193.

Raisor
09-22-2007, 10:15 PM
How is Philly Fan taking all this? Are they booing him like Santa Clause or are they booing him like Donovan McNabb, or are they booing him like Schmidt?

TOBTTReds
09-22-2007, 10:18 PM
How is Philly Fan taking all this? Are they booing him like Santa Clause or are they booing him like Donovan McNabb, or are they booing him like Schmidt?

I could go so many ways with this that aren't appropriate.

CTA513
09-22-2007, 10:45 PM
Howard picked up his 194th K in the 8th inning.

MWM
09-22-2007, 10:51 PM
How is Philly Fan taking all this? Are they booing him like Santa Clause or are they booing him like Donovan McNabb, or are they booing him like Schmidt?

Wasn't the strike outs pretty much why they hated Abreu so much? My understanding is that they love Howard.

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2007, 11:26 PM
They're going to extra innings in Washington. Howard is due up third in the 10th inning.

TOBTTReds
09-22-2007, 11:37 PM
Got a go ahead rbi hit with a 1-2 count. The pitcher missed his location terribly with a fastball. Stays at 4 k today.

jojo
09-23-2007, 12:20 AM
Ya, but think how good he'd be if he turned those strikeouts into hits..... :cool:

Spitball
09-23-2007, 12:43 AM
Wasn't the strike outs pretty much why they hated Abreu so much?

I really believe it had a lot more to do with his conservative defensive play. He still tends to let balls drop in front of him that most outfielders/rightfielders make an effort to catch.

RedsBaron
09-23-2007, 08:24 AM
Ya, but think how good he'd be if he turned those strikeouts into hits..... :cool:

Ya, and does he run out to his position in the field, and how many sac flies does he hit?

Highlifeman21
09-23-2007, 08:36 AM
I really believe it had a lot more to do with his conservative defensive play. He still tends to let balls drop in front of him that most outfielders/rightfielders make an effort to catch.

While I was there for Abreu's last 2 years, it seemed they thought he was tenative in RF, walked too much, wasn't clutch, and didn't bat enough guys in. That was the laundry list of reasons constantly rambled by Phillies Phans I knew.

It seemed most people I knew and hashed baseball with respected his arm, and thought he had a good eye at the plate, but was never looking to put the ball in play, and rather was looking to get on base via the free pass.


Where have we heard similar logic?

mbgrayson
09-23-2007, 10:58 AM
Interesting article about Howard breaking Adam's all time strike out record on the Phillies MLB.com site:

"Strikeout record not on Howard's radar (http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070923&content_id=2225179&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi)"

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2007, 02:17 PM
Howard just tied the record at 195 with a strikeout in his second atbat today.

BCubb2003
09-23-2007, 02:35 PM
Ryan Howard is the best thing to happen to Adam Dunn. He's provoking people to actully think a little deeper about the role of strikeouts, instead of superficial reactions.

KronoRed
09-23-2007, 02:47 PM
Ryan Howard is the best thing to happen to Adam Dunn. He's provoking people to actully think a little deeper about the role of strikeouts, instead of superficial reactions.

Or..Howard will be blamed doe the Phillies not reaching the playoffs :D

jojo
09-23-2007, 03:42 PM
Or..Howard will be blamed doe the Phillies not reaching the playoffs :D

Not until Howard is making $10 to 13M a year....

RedsManRick
09-23-2007, 04:27 PM
Not until Howard is making $10 to 13M a year....

Can't wait to see how the Phillies fans treat him when he's hitting "just" .250/.380/.500, playing a horrible 1B, and making 8 figures. It's going to be ugly.

Highlifeman21
09-23-2007, 04:32 PM
Can't wait to see how the Phillies fans treat him when he's hitting "just" .250/.380/.500, playing a horrible 1B, and making 8 figures. It's going to be ugly.

Switch 1B for LF, and that player is Pat Burrell.

That's how the Phillies Phaithful will treat Mr. Howard.

RedsManRick
09-23-2007, 04:38 PM
Switch 1B for LF, and that player is Pat Burrell.

That's how the Phillies Phaithful will treat Mr. Howard.

Yup, my thoughts exactly. The only difference is that Howard sort of snuck up on fans due to the fact that he unnecessarily spent 3 years in A ball and got the "old for his level" label and was stuck behind Thome.

Pat Burrell was billed as the second coming and everybody expected Mickey Mantle.

edabbs44
09-25-2007, 09:24 PM
Just for kicks...

Ryan Howard with runners on base: .283/.435/.643
Ryan Howard with RISP: .274/.442/.649
Ryan Howard with RISP and 2 outs: .360/.543/.920

Not too shabby.

Ron Madden
09-26-2007, 03:32 AM
double post,

Ron Madden
09-26-2007, 03:39 AM
double post

Ron Madden
09-26-2007, 03:40 AM
Exactly what we have been sayin' all along.

Strikeouts, BA, BAWRISP really do not tell us the whole truth about run production.

Weird, aint it? ;)

BCubb2003
09-26-2007, 04:10 AM
Where can I get one of those Ryan Howard strikeout watches? I could sell it on eBay.

OnBaseMachine
09-27-2007, 09:09 PM
Howard struckout for the 196th time tonight to break Dunn's record.

Highlifeman21
09-27-2007, 10:09 PM
Howard struckout for the 196th time tonight to break Dunn's record.

Reach for the stars, Ryan. We know you have 200 in ya.

OnBaseMachine
09-27-2007, 10:12 PM
He's up to 197 now. Imagine if he hadn't missed 20 games...

SteelSD
09-28-2007, 01:21 AM
I WANT 200!!!

KronoRed
09-28-2007, 02:37 AM
I WANT 200!!!

I'm thinking of going to Philly to cheer him on

Ron Madden
09-28-2007, 03:19 AM
I WANT 200!!!

Me too, with a couple of MVP votes. ;)

Highlifeman21
09-28-2007, 05:03 PM
I'm thinking of going to Philly to cheer him on

I wish I still lived in Philly for the end of this season. I'd be rooting for the Phils to make the playoffs instead of the Mets (I will never forget 1999), as well as to root for Ryan Howard to strike out more than 200 times in a single season.

Lotta reasons to love the Phils right now, except for the whole getting Rheal Cormier from them...

CTA513
09-28-2007, 09:14 PM
#198 tonight against Tim Redding

BoydsOfSummer
09-28-2007, 09:58 PM
Howard struckout for the 196th time tonight to break Dunn's record.


He got it! He got it!
http://www.red-hot-mama.com/images/uploads/grande_george.jpg

RedFanAlways1966
09-28-2007, 10:27 PM
He got it! He got it!
http://www.red-hot-mama.com/images/uploads/grande_george.jpg

Now that was funny! :thumbup:

CTA513
09-30-2007, 03:17 PM
#199 today against Tim Bergmann

RFS62
09-30-2007, 03:30 PM
You can do it, Ryan!!!

http://www.cineol.net/images/noticias/Cameos/Waterboy_2.jpg

WebScorpion
10-01-2007, 06:48 PM
#199 today against Tim Bergmann

...and that's the record! Looks like 200 will have to wait for another season. :(

BoydsOfSummer
10-01-2007, 09:32 PM
That guy can't be any good.

KronoRed
10-01-2007, 10:25 PM
That guy can't be any good.

They should trade him..to an NL central team from Ohio

LoganBuck
10-01-2007, 10:30 PM
They should trade him..to an NL central team from Ohio

He is left handed you must break up the lefties!