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View Full Version : The return on Aurilia?



texasdave
09-08-2007, 07:58 PM
If I researched it correctly, the Reds received two compensation picks for Aurilia signing with San Francisco. These were the 34th and 104th picks in the draft. These picks turned into Todd Frazier and Scott Carroll. It is probably way too early to tell on these two prospects - although Frazier looked impressive and Carroll holds promise. My question is simple. If the Reds were to have dealt Aurilia in a deadline deal in 2006, do you think they would have received better prospects? I understand there is alot of projecting to be done here, but I am just curious as to what anyone out there thinks.

TOBTTReds
09-08-2007, 09:01 PM
I think Frazier will become a top 5 Reds prospect shortly. Therefore, I would say we did the right thing. Carroll is a mystery kind of. A friend of mine played at PSU the past 4 years, and didn't give an overwhelming scouting report for him. But I do think we did the right thing.

dougdirt
09-08-2007, 09:34 PM
Yes we did the right thing. I don't think Aurilia, if traded would have brought back a prospect the quality of Todd Frazier. The fact that we also ended up with Scott Carroll is a bonus.

RedsManRick
09-08-2007, 10:49 PM
Frazier profiles a lot like Aurilia, doesn't he? Or more power?

Patrick Bateman
09-08-2007, 11:37 PM
More patience, more power, if things go well.

GoReds33
09-09-2007, 12:00 AM
I really like the way Aurillia benerfited the Reds. He played well when here, and he gave us a solid return when he left.

Xavier Redleg
09-09-2007, 12:14 AM
I think Frazier will become a top 5 Reds prospect shortly. Therefore, I would say we did the right thing. Carroll is a mystery kind of. A friend of mine played at PSU the past 4 years, and didn't give an overwhelming scouting report for him. But I do think we did the right thing.

Scott Carroll went to Missouri St. If you are talking about the pitcher we drafted from Penn St., that was Andrew O'Neil and he wasn't signed. Scott Gaffney also went to Penn St., but I think he was a SS there.

TOBTTReds
09-09-2007, 01:19 AM
Scott Gaffney also went to Penn St., but I think he was a SS there.

That's who I was thinking of. My bad. He was an IF and P there. Now a P with us.

Topcat
09-09-2007, 04:32 AM
I really like the way Aurillia benerfited the Reds. He played well when here, and he gave us a solid return when he left.


He will forever be loved by Puffy that is for damn sure :D

camisadelgolf
09-09-2007, 03:23 PM
I think there's no way Aurilia would have brought in a prospect of Frazier's value. Even in Aurilia's prime, I'm not sure he could have brought in Frazier and Carroll. (I'm not an Aurilia hater, btw.)

KronoRed
09-09-2007, 03:41 PM
He will forever be loved by Puffy that is for damn sure :D

Hold on now, Puffy loathed Joe Randa, I loathed Aurilia before anyone else did :D

AmarilloRed
09-21-2007, 02:19 AM
From what I saw of Aurilia tonight, he is a PH-1B hitting .246 with the Giants now. I am sure the Reds are glad that they got the draft picks for Aurilia now, as he seems to be on the downside of his career.

Eric_Davis
09-21-2007, 04:58 AM
If I researched it correctly, the Reds received two compensation picks for Aurilia signing with San Francisco. These were the 34th and 104th picks in the draft. These picks turned into Todd Frazier and Scott Carroll. It is probably way too early to tell on these two prospects - although Frazier looked impressive and Carroll holds promise. My question is simple. If the Reds were to have dealt Aurilia in a deadline deal in 2006, do you think they would have received better prospects? I understand there is alot of projecting to be done here, but I am just curious as to what anyone out there thinks.


Which brings up the question...wouldn't you want to get another Todd Frazier simply by letting Hatteberg go?

camisadelgolf
09-21-2007, 06:45 AM
Which brings up the question...wouldn't you want to get another Todd Frazier simply by letting Hatteberg go?

Personally, I would do it in a heartbeat. Unfortunately, I think it would involve declining Hatteberg's option and then offering him arbitration (which he must decline), and I don't know how likely that is of happening.

princeton
09-21-2007, 09:24 AM
it's a lot cheaper to make a deal for prospects-- you save the remainder of the vet's salary plus the signing bonus for the picks. so the difference is whether you're better off with, say, Frazier, or better off with a prospect from another org plus a LOT of cash. That money can be thrown into the draft or into overseas program. Maybe it's even enough for 10 or more Latin players. you also know a lot more about how the acquisitions will hit with or pitch against wood bats.

of course, there's often a reason why a team is willing to dangle certain players. You often receive a guy that has problems that scouts don't see, including questionable work habits, coachability problems, problems with outside influences. On the other hand, you can very easily draft a kid with the same problems, and there's a better grapevine in the minors than in the amateur ranks.

M2
09-21-2007, 01:35 PM
it's a lot cheaper to make a deal for prospects-- you save the remainder of the vet's salary plus the signing bonus for the picks. so the difference is whether you're better off with, say, Frazier, or better off with a prospect from another org plus a LOT of cash. That money can be thrown into the draft or into overseas program. Maybe it's even enough for 10 or more Latin players. you also know a lot more about how the acquisitions will hit with or pitch against wood bats.

of course, there's often a reason why a team is willing to dangle certain players. You often receive a guy that has problems that scouts don't see, including questionable work habits, coachability problems, problems with outside influences. On the other hand, you can very easily draft a kid with the same problems, and there's a better grapevine in the minors than in the amateur ranks.

Good points. I'll just add that, as a rule, the draft is an incubator investment. If a team is actively trying to amass picks then its shifting its resources into a payoff that's half a decade away (on the near side). I like what the Reds got for Aurilia. Frazier and Carroll are probably the two picks I like best from the team's 2007 draft. Yet if the Reds tried to follow suit with Hatteberg and Dunn and whoever else might net draft picks in the near future, it probably wouldn't have much of a linear connection with whatever the major league team building initiative is.

AmarilloRed
09-21-2007, 01:49 PM
It might make sense to do it for Hatteberg, as he is still an effective hitter. The Reds will have to determine if it would be better to pick up his option and trade him. pick up his option and keep him, or decline the option. I would hope they could get an Aurilia-type return for Hattberg, but there are no guarantees.

bucksfan2
09-21-2007, 02:32 PM
It might make sense to do it for Hatteberg, as he is still an effective hitter. The Reds will have to determine if it would be better to pick up his option and trade him. pick up his option and keep him, or decline the option. I would hope they could get an Aurilia-type return for Hattberg, but there are no guarantees.

I dont know if Hatty would warrent a pick as high as Aurilla did last season. I think Hatty will be back next season because he is cheap and could be a good veteran presence for this club. I also find it hard that the reds could deny the option and then offer arbitration and have Hatty not pick it up.

As for trading players instead of taking comp draft picks I would assume that you have better odds when you trade a player. When you trade for a prospect you atleast have 1 year of minor league experience the evaulate. The draft is a crap shoot and you really never know what type of player you can get. While the return for Aruilla looks good right now you still don't know how either player is going to turn out.

LoganBuck
09-21-2007, 10:31 PM
I dont know if Hatty would warrent a pick as high as Aurilla did last season. I think Hatty will be back next season because he is cheap and could be a good veteran presence for this club. I also find it hard that the reds could deny the option and then offer arbitration and have Hatty not pick it up.


They did it last year with Schoenweis. That turned out well.

Votto makes Hatteburg a very expensive bench player. Cantu makes him a luxury that the Reds can not afford.

dougdirt
09-22-2007, 12:38 AM
If the Reds cant afford a 1.85 Million dollar bench player, then they are in BIG trouble.

KronoRed
09-22-2007, 02:07 AM
Of course they can afford him, but Hat can only play 1st, same as Cantu..that's a bad way to construct a bench

dougdirt
09-22-2007, 02:13 AM
Of course they can afford him, but Hat can only play 1st, same as Cantu..that's a bad way to construct a bench

Is it? Cantu can play more than first base. Keppinger can play several positions. Norris Hopper plays multiple positions. Ryan Freel plays multiple positions. The Reds have so many bench players that can play either every outfield position, or every infield position that carrying a guy with a bat like Hatteberg on the bench will be just fine.

KronoRed
09-22-2007, 02:23 AM
Cantu is a disaster at anything other then 1st (as I type this he heads over to play 3rd :lol: ) it wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds put him all over the IF, I'd rather have a good glove guy to go along with Kep and Hat if he's kept over Cantu..and no not Castro

dougdirt
09-22-2007, 03:40 AM
Yeah, but as a guy who is a spot starter, his range won't actually hurt you much at all. When he plays everyday its one thing, but as a bench player his defensive value is not going to be a factor really.

AmarilloRed
09-22-2007, 03:44 AM
I have asked this previously Doug, but would you expect Hatteberg to accept a role as a bench player in Cincinnati? You may have answered it, but I could not remember. I would like Hatteberg next year, but am unsure if he would accept a role as a bench player.

lollipopcurve
09-22-2007, 10:32 AM
Hatteberg makes a nice LH pinch hitter for sure, but the fact that he's slow (can't pinch run, may have to be pinch run for) and only one position is a real detriment. I'd exercise the option and then see what he could bring in trade -- I'd think some AL clubs would like him for occasional starts at 1B and DH. He was claimed off waivers in August, so you have to think there's interest out there.

dougdirt
09-22-2007, 12:09 PM
AR, it doesn't really matter if he is willing to accept the role as far as picking up his option. If he has a problem with it, then you can trade him and get something in return for him. As for speed off the bench, I think its an overrated thing. How often do you honestly use a pinch runner compared to just needing a guy to get a hit as a pinch hitter?

PuffyPig
09-24-2007, 11:06 PM
Personally, I would do it in a heartbeat. Unfortunately, I think it would involve declining Hatteberg's option and then offering him arbitration (which he must decline), and I don't know how likely that is of happening.


Hatteberg might get $5M or more in arbitration.

He will not be offered arbitration.

TOBTTReds
09-25-2007, 01:46 AM
AR, it doesn't really matter if he is willing to accept the role as far as picking up his option. If he has a problem with it, then you can trade him and get something in return for him. As for speed off the bench, I think its an overrated thing. How often do you honestly use a pinch runner compared to just needing a guy to get a hit as a pinch hitter?

I believe it has been reported that he would rather retire than play the bench elsewhere. But if the Reds pick up his option, he will play.

If we offer him arb, he won't accept, but he probably won't sign elsewhere either. Meaning we get no picks. I think he ends his career as a Red, whether it is this week or next year.

RedsManRick
09-25-2007, 11:55 AM
The Reds are well within their rights to exercise the option and then trade him elsewhere. However, I get the sense that Wayne would not do that if it put him in a backup role, against Hatteberg's wishes.

bucksfan2
09-26-2007, 11:46 AM
AR, it doesn't really matter if he is willing to accept the role as far as picking up his option. If he has a problem with it, then you can trade him and get something in return for him. As for speed off the bench, I think its an overrated thing. How often do you honestly use a pinch runner compared to just needing a guy to get a hit as a pinch hitter?

Hatty is going to be 38 next season and probably relizes that his days are numbered. What a better way to make 1.5M than to sit on the bench, start a handful of games and pinch hit.

As for speed of the bench I disagree with you doug. I think it is a very underappreciated part of the game. Look at what Dave Roberts did for the Red Sox in the playoffs when they won the world series. In a close game if you got a guy who can steal a bast it puts more pressure on both the pitcher and catcher. A slow runner allows the pitcher to focus solely on the hitter.

dougdirt
09-26-2007, 03:30 PM
Hatty is going to be 38 next season and probably relizes that his days are numbered. What a better way to make 1.5M than to sit on the bench, start a handful of games and pinch hit.

As for speed of the bench I disagree with you doug. I think it is a very underappreciated part of the game. Look at what Dave Roberts did for the Red Sox in the playoffs when they won the world series. In a close game if you got a guy who can steal a bast it puts more pressure on both the pitcher and catcher. A slow runner allows the pitcher to focus solely on the hitter.

That was 1 play. Sure, it was a big play and in turn helped them win the game.... 4 or 5 innings later. Give me a guy off the bench who will get me a base hit when I need it every time over a guy who will pinch run in a real situation every 20 games.

M2
09-26-2007, 05:45 PM
Speed of the bench is good to have, but that doesn't mean that everyone on the bench has to have speed. The Reds might have Hopper and Freel off the bench in 2008 (with Chris Dickerson a phone call away in AAA). There's your speed. A quality LH PH/spot starter is a great thing to have too.

Rojo
09-27-2007, 09:12 PM
Speed of the bench is good to have,


Its also about the easiest thing to find in baseball.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/W/Herb-Washington.shtml