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Heath
09-10-2007, 11:12 AM
Hal McCoy answers his fan mail.


Q With all the Adam Dunn bashing, has anybody compared his statistics to those of Philadelphia Ryan Howard, Mr. MVP? Sandy, Chicago

A Good one. Everybody howls about Dunn's 153 strikeouts. Howard has struck out 173 times. Howard has 37 homers to Dunn's 36. Dunn has 91 walks to Howard's 85. Dunn has scored 93 runs to Howard's 78. Howard has 113 RBIs to Dunn's 96. Howard is hitting .265 to Dunn's .266. Howard is talked about as one of the National League's premier players while Dunn gets dumped on as the monthly Bum of the Month.


Wonder if MartyB is going to still call him the Hall of Famer Hal McCoy.

KittyDuran
09-10-2007, 11:19 AM
Hal talked about that during the 2nd inning of yesterday's game...

paulrichjr
09-10-2007, 11:25 AM
Adam Dunn needs to not only have his option picked up but he also needs to sign a 4 year extension. Dunn, Bruce, and Hamilton will make an outfield that will be second to none in the NL in 2009.

Ltlabner
09-10-2007, 11:25 AM
There has been a noticable shift in perception on Dunner, IMO. For the most part, all of the local media are saying we have to excersize Dunn's option and pointing out how cost effective he really is. I'm not sure about Doc, but I know Fay, Trent Rosecrantz and I think others have made this case (to one degree or another). Now McCoy is on deck. Thom has said you have to excersize the option more than once (although getting on Dunn's case from time to time).

Willie's notiable hijinks and Marty's grumpyness aside, I really think that relalitity is setting in regarding Dunn. Except for the normal crowd of dolts, of course. A 17 year old girl sitting near us at the game on Saturday hounded dunn for being "worthless" and how he was "horrable" in the field. This was after he made a running catch....?!?!?! Her boyfriend corrected her and pointed out his home runs and runs scored. While it likely effected his chances at romances, she shut up after her tirade.

Frankly, I think people are realizing that JR's wonderfull year is not likely to repeat itself in 2008 (unfortunatley) so you better keep a big bat like Dunn's in the line up.

Chip R
09-10-2007, 11:27 AM
A 17 year old girl sitting near us at the game on Saturday hounded dunn for being "worthless" and how he was "horrable" in the field. This was after he made a running catch....?!?!?! Her boyfriend corrected her and pointed out his home runs and runs scored. While it likely effected his chances at romances, she shut up after her tirade.



So you're saying the boyfriend's OBP is going to suffer? :devil:

Ltlabner
09-10-2007, 11:32 AM
So you're saying the boyfriend's OBP is going to suffer? :devil:

His SLG is definatley going to take a hit since a home run appeared to be out of the question.

:pimp:

jojo
09-10-2007, 11:32 AM
So you're saying the boyfriend's OBP is going to suffer? :devil:

Not necesarily but his SLG might dramatically decline (i.e. he may get to first but don't expect him to get past it)...

:cool:

Johnny Footstool
09-10-2007, 11:39 AM
The boyfriend is probably going to have to drop down a few sac bunts before he gets another chance to swing for the fences.

Chip R
09-10-2007, 11:43 AM
He needs to be more scrappy.

dougdirt
09-10-2007, 11:52 AM
Seriously guys.... that was quality humor!

RedsManRick
09-10-2007, 12:05 PM
It's amazing how the media treats you when you hit .260 instead of .230. Sadly, I really think it's that simple.

TOBTTReds
09-10-2007, 12:15 PM
It's amazing how the media treats you when you hit .260 instead of .230. Sadly, I really think it's that simple.

Agreed

M2
09-10-2007, 12:41 PM
Howard leads Dunn in EQA, VORP and OPS+. Dunn leads Howard in runs created, runs above position and runs above replacement player.

KronoRed
09-10-2007, 01:26 PM
Howard has more RBI, and we all know that players just have to try harder to get more RBI ;)

Heath
09-10-2007, 01:32 PM
Howard leads Dunn in EQA, VORP and OPS+. Dunn leads Howard in runs created, runs above position and runs above replacement player.

Yeah, but is he scrappy enough? Can he salsa?

LoganBuck
09-10-2007, 01:42 PM
So you're saying the boyfriend's OBP is going to suffer? :devil:

He probably won't be going first to third anytime soon.

registerthis
09-10-2007, 01:45 PM
Meh. They both suck.

bucksfan2
09-10-2007, 01:51 PM
Howard has more RBI, and we all know that players just have to try harder to get more RBI ;)

Howard also hits 4th every day I believe while Dunn has been bounced everywhere from 3-7th. I also would assume that with the likes of Rollins and Utley hitting in front of you there are more RBI chances. I think people also dont realize that both Dunn and Howard have similar ages. It just took Howard longer to develop.

jojo
09-10-2007, 02:04 PM
Howard leads Dunn in EQA, VORP and OPS+. Dunn leads Howard in runs created, runs above position and runs above replacement player.

Actually, Howard and Dunn have exactly the same RC totals using THT's normalized version of the stat even thought Dunn has more PAs. Howard also has a higher VORP even though he has a higher replacement level bar to overcome at first than Dunn has in left (replacement is set differently for the positions). Howard's VORPr (VORP expressed as a rate stat) is .324 while Dunn's is .294.


Bottom line though, the differences in their production aren't so great this season that one would necesarily be a slam dunk over the other. Looking at their defensive values using UZR, Dunn was rated as -19 relative to other leftfielders on '06 and UZR estimates him as a -29 defender this season (based upon data through the ASB). Howard was rated as a -1 defender in '06 and UZR estimates he'll be a -8 defender over the course of '07. So both are likely - defenders at their positions but Dunn might give up 10 more runs that Howard suggesting the gap between the two widens a bit in Howards favor when considering their total worth.

Factor in their salaries and there is little doubt which player is more desirable.

RedsManRick
09-10-2007, 02:18 PM
I wonder if Howard plays drunk...

pedro
09-10-2007, 02:24 PM
Actually, Howard and Dunn have exactly the same RC totals using THT's normalized version of the stat even thought Dunn has more PAs. Howard also has a higher VORP even though he has a higher replacement level bar to overcome at first than Dunn has in left (replacement is set differently for the positions). Howard's VORPr (VORP expressed as a rate stat) is .324 while Dunn's is .294.


Bottom line though, the differences in their production aren't so great this season that one would necesarily be a slam dunk over the other. Looking at their defensive values using UZR, Dunn was rated as -19 relative to other leftfielders on '06 and UZR estimates him as a -29 defender this season (based upon data through the ASB). Howard was rated as a -1 defender in '06 and UZR estimates he'll be a -8 defender over the course of '07. So both are likely - defenders at their positions but Dunn might give up 10 more runs that Howard suggesting the gap between the two widens a bit in Howards favor when considering their total worth.

Factor in their salaries and there is little doubt which player is more desirable.

Given that a even one the best LF in the game (Carl Crawford) only has 285 total chances in LF I find it extremely dubious that Adam Dunn, or any other LF, is worth -29 runs defensively.

Jpup
09-10-2007, 02:29 PM
Given that a even one the best LF in the game (Carl Crawford) only has 285 total chances in LF I find it extremely dubious that Adam Dunn, or any other LF, is worth -29 runs defensively.

quit making sense.;)

jojo
09-10-2007, 03:04 PM
Given that a even one the best LF in the game (Carl Crawford) only has 285 total chances in LF I find it extremely dubious that Adam Dunn, or any other LF, is worth -29 runs defensively.

Of course you do for reasons seemingly unrelated to the metric (we've had this conversation several times in the past and yet it somehow never progresses).

I indicated that the '07 value of -29 for Dunn was an estimate derived from only a half season of data. I'm not sure why you've chosen to focus solely on it given the sample size. My conclusion relating to their defense was that both were minus defenders and Dunn likely gives up 10 runs more than Howard's non-plus glove (i.e. Dunn is a worse defender relative to his peers than Howard is relative to his peers). The -29 value for Dunn really wasn't that central to the point of the post and really only serves to support the notion that while Dunn was rated as a poor defender in '04-'06, nothing has changed this season to suggest his defense has improved (despite some who argue that it has). Given that there really is roughly only two seasons worth of data for Howard, I'm much more comfortable with the notion that Dunn is roughly a -15 to -20 defender than I am with the notion that Howard is a -8 defender (his UZR was -4, -1, -8 for '05-'07 respectively though remember '07 is an extrapolation). However, since Dunn has consistently graded out as a -15 to -20 defender, I used Howard's worst score (i.e. errored in Dunn's favor) as rough justice to suggest a ten run gap in their defensive values.

UZR is just one metric and it's best to take a consensus of several when arguing absolute defensive worth but really, for the argument being made UZR was both convenient and probably sufficient.

pedro
09-10-2007, 03:14 PM
Of course you do for reasons seemingly unrelated to the metric (we've had this conversation several times in the past and yet it somehow never progresses).



It never progresses because you keep using the UZR run numbers as gospel and because I remain convinced that they are inaccurate, skewed heavily at the periphery and are much more prone to subjectivity than you are willing to concede.

jojo
09-10-2007, 03:21 PM
It never progresses because you keep using the UZR run numbers as gospel and because I remain convinced that they are inaccurate, skewed heavily at the periphery and are much more prone to subjectivity than you are willing to concede.

Yet you never explain why you think that.... In any event, the topic of this thread is.......

StillFunkyB
09-10-2007, 03:21 PM
Dunn is so frustrating to me a lot of times, but there really is no reason to not pick up his option and try to sign him to a LTC.

I would have had no problem trading Dunn for a nice package of players, and I am really happy the Wayne was asking the moon in return for him.

IMHO, you pick up the option (there really should be no question about this), try and sign him long term, and if some team comes knockin in the offseason or whenever and offer that moon platter, you help Adam pack his bags and say thanks.

M2
09-10-2007, 03:43 PM
It never progresses because you keep using the UZR run numbers as gospel and because I remain convinced that they are inaccurate, skewed heavily at the periphery and are much more prone to subjectivity than you are willing to concede.

Amen. Also it probably doesn't work to project UZR from mid-season totals since it's not necessarily something that will progress along linear lines. A minus defender in the first half could be a plus defender in the second half and where that ends up holistically speaking is anyone's guess. UZR suffers from being a bit of a black box stat. You can't really track it. Right now it pops in the middle and at the end of the season. You can't see how a good or a bad game affects the total number, which would help individuals gauge if too much or insufficient weight was being placed on specific events.

jojo
09-10-2007, 04:08 PM
Amen. Also it probably doesn't work to project UZR from mid-season totals since it's not necessarily something that will progress along linear lines. A minus defender in the first half could be a plus defender in the second half and where that ends up holistically speaking is anyone's guess. UZR suffers from being a bit of a black box stat. You can't really track it. Right now it pops in the middle and at the end of the season. You can't see how a good or a bad game affects the total number, which would help individuals gauge if too much or insufficient weight was being placed on specific events.

Nobody has argued that it is ideal to project from small sample sizes.

UZR really isn't any more black box than RZR which people seem to have no problems accepting (why would OOZ play totals be considered something casual fans can readily calculate?). The methodology behind UZR or any of the PBP-based defensive metrics like PMR or Dewan's +/- system isn't even black box. In fact it's been described and debated ad nauseum on the internet.

Concerning how UZR weights individual events, that's been articulately described by MGL, his commentary also available freely on the internet:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/..._2003-03-14_0/

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/..._2003-03-21_0/

Once again though this is in danger of hijacking the thread....

SunDeck
09-10-2007, 04:34 PM
The boyfriend is probably going to have to drop down a few sac bunts before he gets another chance to swing for the fences.

See that's just it. His whole problem is that he either swings for the fences or strikes out. If they guy gave himself up more, did more of the little things, acted more like a team player, he'd be...wait, am I talking about Dunn or the boyfriend? Somehow, I'm thinking Dunner struck out way less than the boyfriend, any way you slice it.

fearofpopvol1
09-10-2007, 04:50 PM
Adam Dunn needs to not only have his option picked up but he also needs to sign a 4 year extension. Dunn, Bruce, and Hamilton will make an outfield that will be second to none in the NL in 2009.

That assumes he'll sign a 4 year extension with the Reds. He might want 5-7 years elsewhere for bigger money.

As much as I like Dunn and would like to see him continue his career in Cincy, I still think the Reds should be more concerned with pitching at this point. I know there's no easy answer there with the free agent market and all, but it may be time to be creative.

M2
09-10-2007, 04:57 PM
Nobody has argued that it is ideal to project from small sample sizes.

UZR really isn't any more black box than RZR which people seem to have no problems accepting (why would OOZ play totals be considered something casual fans can readily calculate?). The methodology behind UZR or any of the PBP-based defensive metrics like PMR or Dewan's +/- system isn't even black box. In fact it's been described and debated ad nauseum on the internet.

Concerning how UZR weights individual events, that's been articulately described by MGL, his commentary also available freely on the internet:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/..._2003-03-14_0/

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/..._2003-03-21_0/

Once again though this is in danger of hijacking the thread....

It's black box in that you can't track it day to day. If Adam Dunn has a good day at the plate, I can see the effect in his hitting stats. How UZR reacts to a given day in the field is anyone's guess.

Beyond that, there's quite a bit of wiggle between UZR and RZR (which I don't accept any more than UZR). For instance, Dunn graded pretty well in RZR last year, but in the basement for UZR. So who's got the right zone? Both purport to be skinning the apple using a similar knife. It also doesn't help that the zones keeping shifting (RZR's prior to 2006 probably should be considered worthless for this very reason).

We'll see if any of these metrics ever churn out consistent numbers. Good hitters and good pitchers consistently rate well in hitting and pitching metrics. In these defensive systems, fielders tend to be disturbingly fluid. Maybe big deltas are the undiscovered norm in fielding. Maybe it's a sign that most fielders are essentially the same and that the large deltas actually represent small differences. We could list maybes until the cows come home.

I know you're no fan of defensive Win Shares, but you can track it during the season, it can go back to the begining of the 20th century and demonstrate some consistentcy, and it does a stellar job of weighting defensive contributions against hitting and pitching. Regardless of whether James missed the boat on precise defensive measurement (and I'd argue that he did miss the boat), he got at something equally as valuable when he chucked linear weights - the ability to represent a player's full value broken down into its constituent parts.

I know that saying anything positive about Win Shares frosts the shorts of the ZR crowd, but James isn't reiventing Win Shares every three years.

Personally, I figure that defense is a time and distance equation and until somebody approaches PBP data from that angle (which will require video and Swiss timing) we'll just be running inside of zones and putout/assist/error tallies that provide an incomplete portrayal of range.

Highlifeman21
09-10-2007, 05:01 PM
Adam Dunn needs to not only have his option picked up but he also needs to sign a 4 year extension. Dunn, Bruce, and Hamilton will make an outfield that will be second to none in the NL in 2009.

I couldn't agree more, but I have this not so fresh feeling that the Reds' FO is 150% convinced that we can't afford Adam Dunn long-term, and has seemingly already begun a PR campaign to brainwash the masses of such notion.

We can afford Adam Dunn. We need to pay him what he's worth and build around him, rather than run him out of town, getting nothing of much worth/value in return.

puca
09-10-2007, 05:13 PM
I couldn't agree more, but I have this not so fresh feeling that the Reds' FO is 150% convinced that we can't afford Adam Dunn long-term, and has seemingly already begun a PR campaign to brainwash the masses of such notion.

We can afford Adam Dunn. We need to pay him what he's worth and build around him, rather than run him out of town, getting nothing of much worth/value in return.

It takes both parties to sign a long-term-contract.

Even if the Reds fail to sign Adam long term it doesn't necessarily mean they didn't want or try to. I will say that if they do appreciate Adam, they sort of keep it pretty much to themselves.

GAC
09-10-2007, 07:52 PM
So you're saying the boyfriend's OBP is going to suffer? :devil:

It makes it tougher to get to 1st base.

My daughter Rachel can't stand Adam Dunn. She's a Phillips fan. And while I like Brandon too, I love to give her a hard time about her stance on Dunn. :lol:

GAC
09-10-2007, 07:54 PM
Frankly, I think people are realizing that JR's wonderfull year is not likely to repeat itself in 2008 (unfortunatley) so you better keep a big bat like Dunn's in the line up.

But those same people were saying that after he got the Comeback Player of the Year award a couple of years ago. ;)

When he is healthy he performs. And I think playing RF has helped to promote that.

RedsBaron
09-10-2007, 08:06 PM
Sports Illustrated's on line edition is reporting that Torii Hunter was insulted that the Twins only offered him a three year deal at $15,000,000 per season, and that unnamed executives with other teams specualte that Hunter will command at least $25,000,000 a season, with a contract of between 4 and 6 years, when he becomes a fee agent at the end of this season.
Adam Dunn is a totally different type of player than Hunter, but if Hunter will command that much as a free agent, I do wonder what it will cost to sign Dunn to another contract.

Reds1
09-10-2007, 08:09 PM
great post I was not aware of all that. Dunn has had a great year. I think he's best as a Red when all is said and done. Look to trade for top pitching, but if it doesn't happen sign him! I have no problem with that.

M2
09-10-2007, 08:21 PM
Sports Illustrated's on line edition is reporting that Torii Hunter was insulted that the Twins only offered him a three year deal at $15,000,000 per season, and that unnamed executives with other teams specualte that Hunter will command at least $25,000,000 a season, with a contract of between 4 and 6 years, when he becomes a fee agent at the end of this season.
Adam Dunn is a totally different type of player than Hunter, but if Hunter will command that much as a free agent, I do wonder what it will cost to sign Dunn to another contract.

$25M for Torii Hunter? I suppose anything could happen, but $15M would have made him the 8th highest paid player in the AL last year (6th in the NL). I've got to figure it would be close to a top 20 salary in all of MLB next year and Hunter wouldn't make my top 20 in terms of talent.

Though if someone's willing to pay Hunter that kind of cash, what's A-Rod going to make? It boggles the mind. Heading into this season was working under the assumption that no one outside of A-Rod would be getting paid more than $20M next year. Apparently Hunter and his agent are convinced otherwise.

KronoRed
09-10-2007, 08:27 PM
Wait..is there another Torii Hunter then the one that plays for the Twins? 25million? yipes.

Highlifeman21
09-10-2007, 08:42 PM
Sports Illustrated's on line edition is reporting that Torii Hunter was insulted that the Twins only offered him a three year deal at $15,000,000 per season, and that unnamed executives with other teams specualte that Hunter will command at least $25,000,000 a season, with a contract of between 4 and 6 years, when he becomes a fee agent at the end of this season.
Adam Dunn is a totally different type of player than Hunter, but if Hunter will command that much as a free agent, I do wonder what it will cost to sign Dunn to another contract.

$25 Mil a year for Hunter?

I'm sure someone would pay it, but for the life of me I don't want that someone being the Reds.

However, if the Reds paid Dunn $15 Mil a year, I'd almost be convinced that the Reds' FO is serious about winning.

RFS62
09-10-2007, 10:58 PM
$25M for Torii Hunter? I suppose anything could happen, but $15M would have made him the 8th highest paid player in the AL last year (6th in the NL). I've got to figure it would be close to a top 20 salary in all of MLB next year and Hunter wouldn't make my top 20 in terms of talent.

Though if someone's willing to pay Hunter that kind of cash, what's A-Rod going to make? It boggles the mind. Heading into this season was working under the assumption that no one outside of A-Rod would be getting paid more than $20M next year. Apparently Hunter and his agent are convinced otherwise.


If Tori Hunter gets $25 million I'll move to Canada with Alec Baldwin.

The world can't possibly be that crazy yet, can it?

Wheelhouse
09-11-2007, 03:42 AM
Hal McCoy answers his fan mail.




Wonder if MartyB is going to still call him the Hall of Famer Hal McCoy.

Yep, you just watch Ryan Howard and he's a better player...

IslandRed
09-11-2007, 11:27 AM
Sports Illustrated's on line edition is reporting that Torii Hunter was insulted that the Twins only offered him a three year deal at $15,000,000 per season, and that unnamed executives with other teams specualte that Hunter will command at least $25,000,000 a season, with a contract of between 4 and 6 years, when he becomes a fee agent at the end of this season.

$25 million a year for Hunter just doesn't pass the laugh test.

My cynical take: Smoke screen. These big numbers are being floated around to encourage Hunter to test the market instead of re-signing with Minnesota. Once on the market, he'll find that no one's willing to plunk anything like $25 million per year on a real table. Not saying he'll go begging, mind you.

KronoRed
09-11-2007, 01:03 PM
The world can't possibly be that crazy yet, can it?
Maybe the Rangers will make a big splash :D

membengal
09-11-2007, 04:47 PM
The thought of Hunter getting that kind of jack from someone is an "up is down" "left is right" moment. Unfathomable.

TeamBoone
09-11-2007, 04:51 PM
The thought of Hunter getting that kind of jack from someone is an "up is down" "left is right" moment. Unfathomable.

And yet he thinks what he was offered is an insult. Some of these guys amaze me.

Aronchis
09-12-2007, 04:39 AM
I could see Hunter promote "dreams of youth" campaign demonstrating you don't have to be a AROD or Pujols to bring in that kind of jack.

Hunter: Kids, if I can make 25 million and feed the poor children of Africa and not care how much money I spent, you can to. Just be a good athlete and make high flying plays in the outfield. Doesn't matter if you can't take a walk or have great power. Thank you Owners of baseball, we will never forget you.

Baseball Owners: Thank you Torii!!