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View Full Version : Reds need a few good pitchers in '08



Kc61
09-12-2007, 08:16 AM
In the National League, the Reds have the worst team ERA, over 5.00. The starting ERA is 4.92, 12th of 16 teams. Bullpen ERA is 5.23 -- by far the worst in the league, next teams are Philly and Houston at 4.65.

Is there any question how the Reds get better next year? Could the problem be any clearer?

Reds have three starting pitchers. Harang, Arroyo, Belisle. Team needs two starters.

Reds bullpen this year has included the following four pitchers, each of whom has received considerable pitching time -- Stanton (6.02 ERA in 62 outings), Coffey (6.50 ERA in 50 outings), Saarloos (7.39 ERA in 32 appearances), Majewski (8.68 in 26 games).

Team needs a two or three good relievers to add to Weathers, Burton and probably Coutlangus and Bray. Not that these four are all world beaters, but their numbers are within reason.

Two starters. Two or three relievers. Through some trades, promotions, free agency, that's what the team needs. It couldn't be any clearer. Krivsky's task is as simple as that. You win this division with around 90 wins, possibly fewer.

redsmetz
09-12-2007, 08:29 AM
I think it was extraordinary when someone did some analysis of how the Reds record might be if they had two "league average" starters behind the three starters you mention and if we had a "league average" bullpen - I think they calculate a total of nine more wins. I can't remember all the math behind it, but it was jarring, to say the least.

With regards to Majewski, someone mentioned looking at his record since he's come back in August, without the St. Louis game in which he got no one out and gave up three Earned Runs - I worked it up, his ERA since returning without that game is a half way decent 3.46 ERA. I'm not sure I would give up on either Majewski or Bray.

Of course, none of that is meant to discount the real need for better pitchers. I think we've got a flock of good young pitchers with a load of raw talent. It's why I keep asking the question, what can we do to teach these guys to be better pitchers and kick it up a notch. History is replete with stories of guys who suddenly put it together. Yes we need help from the outside, but we've assembled guys on the current roster and in our sytem who could be the ones who put it all together.

edabbs44
09-12-2007, 08:33 AM
In the National League, the Reds have the worst team ERA, over 5.00. The starting ERA is 4.92, 12th of 16 teams. Bullpen ERA is 5.23 -- by far the worst in the league, next teams are Philly and Houston at 4.65.

Is there any question how the Reds get better next year? Could the problem be any clearer?

Reds have three starting pitchers. Harang, Arroyo, Belisle. Team needs two starters.

Reds bullpen this year has included the following four pitchers, each of whom has received considerable pitching time -- Stanton (6.02 ERA in 62 outings), Coffey (6.50 ERA in 50 outings), Saarloos (7.39 ERA in 32 appearances), Majewski (8.68 in 26 games).

Team needs a two or three good relievers to add to Weathers, Burton and probably Coutlangus and Bray. Not that these four are all world beaters, but their numbers are within reason.

Two starters. Two or three relievers. Through some trades, promotions, free agency, that's what the team needs. It couldn't be any simpler. Krivsky's task is as simple as that.

He had the same task last season and obviously failed miserably.

I'm still hoping they realize that it is a more daunting task (for whatever reason) than it appears and that they try and go towards a bit of a youth movement.

The Reds might be a few games away from being in the NL Central race, but they are a buttload of games away from being towards the top tier of the league. That should be the goal.

Looking towards the future (i.e. 1-2 years), building an offense around Votto, Bruce, Hamilton, Phillips and EdE isn't that bad. It's actually pretty good. I'd be looking at dumping Jr asap and either signing Dunn to an extension or getting a large return for him.

As long as they have a plan in place, they could trot Paul Wilson out every 5th day next year and it wouldn't bother me. I don't want to see them signing 36 year old relievers and 5th starters coming off shoulder surgery to multi-year multi-million dollar contracts in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle for that one magical season.

This can be done right if it is done correctly, and it can be done fairly quickly. There is light at the end of the tunnel. The question is whether it can be done correctly with the ones calling the shots currently in place.

puca
09-12-2007, 09:02 AM
Forget about trading for or signing bullpen arms. That is one strategy that Krivsky must let go.

I know it is easier said than done, but the plan should be to acquire as many young starters as possible. The only criteria is that starter must have at least one plus pitch. Once there is an excess of quality starting pitching, the bullpen will take care of itself. I'd rather take my chances converting a struggling starter to releif than signing/trading for a career middle reliever.

redsmetz
09-12-2007, 09:19 AM
Forget about trading for or signing bullpen arms. That is one strategy that Krivsky must let go.

I know it is easier said than done, but the plan should be to acquire as many young starters as possible. The only criteria is that starter must have at least one plus pitch. Once there is an excess of quality starting pitching, the bullpen will take care of itself. I'd rather take my chances converting a struggling starter to releif than signing/trading for a career middle reliever.

To a small degree, isn't this essentially what Krivsky has been doing since last year (with a few exceptions)? Look at the pitchers he's stockpiled since he arrived. That not all near joining AARP. In fact, not many have been older pitchers. The vast majority of the pitchers we've acquired since the off-season have been under twenty and we're seeing a few of them are gems (Burton, for example). Of the eleven pitchers currently on the Reds roster that were brought in under this regime, only two are over 30 (Guardado & Stanton). The rest? Bray, Coutlangus, McBeth, Livingston, Majewski, Saarloos, Arroyo (30, this year), Gosling and Burton.

There's room for improvement, no question, but I think the Reds have been gathering some pitchers who can ultimately have some upside.

flyer85
09-12-2007, 09:36 AM
He had the same task last season and obviously failed miserably.,,, and came to the conclusion that guys like Stanton and Saarloos were solutions to the problem. I would still look to acquire Wuertz from the Cubs(he is way down their pecking order). The first order of business is to cut bait on Stanton, Guardado, Saarloos, etc. Then we'll know WK at least has a clue about how to fix the problem.

BRM
09-12-2007, 09:40 AM
,,, and came to the conclusion that guys like Stanton and Saarloos were solutions to the problem. I would still look to acquire Wuertz from the Cubs(he is way down their pecking order). The first order of business is to cut bait on Stanton, Guardado, Saarloos, etc. Then we'll know WK at least has a clue about how to fix the problem.

I think Saarloos will be gone. The two crafty left-handers will likely be part of next year's pen though. Learn to love it!

Kc61
09-12-2007, 09:57 AM
I disagree with those who are totally devoted to young pitching prospects. You need a mixture. You can't win running a tryout camp for minor league prospects -- they tend to fail more often than they succeed. You also can't win with too many veterans on the downside. And the Reds can't afford all of its pitchers to be in their "prime". A good mixture is needed.

In terms of pitching, last off-season was, well, disappointing. The Reds obviously needed another good starter and didn't get one. The bullpen was weak yet the team went for guys like Stanton and Saarloos. Krivsky said at the Winter Meetings that he was happy with Milton and Lohse. It appears from Castellini's statements that he thought the team wasn't ready to spend on pitching yet.

I'm all in favor of the long term, but with free agency, arbitration and the like even long-term thinking in baseball is the next couple of years. The Reds should keep its best prospects and promote them properly. But they also need to get help from the outside.

There is no reason the Reds can't compete next year. They have a strong offense and an improved defense. They need to spend wisely, promote wisely, trade wisely. But they have to aggressively pursue some good pitchers this off-season. Hoping that Bailey and McBeth will be ready isn't enough. And I agree that they need to cut bait with some pitchers who haven't panned out.

wolfboy
09-12-2007, 10:32 AM
He had the same task last season and obviously failed miserably.

I'm not ready to say he failed miserably. I think it's too much to say that any GM should be able to rebuild an entire pitching staff in one offseason. Is it realistic to say that Krivsky should have been able to bring in two league average starters and half (or more) of a league average bullpen? If that was the task, then it was doomed from the beginning.

camisadelgolf
09-12-2007, 10:37 AM
They say this year's free agent class of pitchers will be worse than last year's. Seven of the 24 free agent starting pitchers from last year are performing average or better, and the cheapest one was Jason Marquis. Here is who was available last year:

CONTRACT PLAYER PERFORMANCE
minor league Brandon Claussen terribly in AAA
3 yr $ 1,920,000 Yoslan Herrera underwhelmingly in AA
minor league Runelvys Hernandez underwhelmingly in AAA
3 yr $47,000,000 Jason Schmidt terribly for Dodgers
3 yr $24,500,000 Adam Eaton terribly for Phillies
5 yr $20,000,000 Kei Igawa terribly for Yankees
1 yr $ 500,000 Jerome Williams disastrously for Nationals
minor league Victor Zambrano disastrously for Orioles
1 yr $ 4,000,000 Kip Wells poorly for Cardinals
1 yr $ 3,100,000 Ramon Ortiz poorly for Twins and Rockies
1 yr $ 1,500,000 Tomo Ohka poorly for Blue Jays
1 yr $ 1,000,000 Claudio Vargas poorly for Brewers
1 yr $ 380,000 Russ Ortiz poorly for Giants
4 yr $42,000,000 Jeff Suppan below average for Brewers
2 yr $12,500,000 Woody Williams below average for Astros
1 yr $ 7,500,000 Randy Wolf below average for Dodgers
1 yr $ 4,000,000 Joel Pineiro below average for Red Sox and Cardinals
7 yr$126,000,000 Barry Zito average in a pitcher's ball park for Giants
6 yr$103,111,111 Daisuke Matsuzaka average for Red Sox
3 yr $21,000,000 Jason Marquis slighly above average for Cubs
1 yr $16,000,000 Andy Pettitte above average for Astros
1 yr $10,000,000 Greg Maddux above average in a pitcher's ballpark for Padres
5 yr $55,000,000 Gil Meche career year (and a losing record) for Royals
4 yr $40,000,000 Ted Lilly career year for Cubs

Kc61
09-12-2007, 10:41 AM
I'm not ready to say he failed miserably. I think it's too much to say that any GM should be able to rebuild an entire pitching staff in one offseason. Is it realistic to say that Krivsky should have been able to bring in two league average starters and half (or more) of a league average bullpen? If that was the task, then it was doomed from the beginning.

I'm not a Krivsky basher, but as I recall he brought in one effective pitcher last off-season -- Burton -- from the outside.

Am I missing anyone? And I'm talking major leagues.

mbgrayson
09-12-2007, 10:42 AM
Some minor league possibilities:
1. Homer Bailey, Righty, age 21, AAA and MLB in 2007, 3.07 ERA, 7.88 k/9 rate, .204 BAA in 67 AAA innings, 6.99 ERA, 4.77 K/9 rate and .282 BAA in 28 MLB innings.
2. Bobby Livingston, Lefty, age 25, pitched in AAA and MLB in 2007, 3.80 ERA, 5.2 k/9 rate, and .299 BAA in AAA, 5.27 ERA, 4.31 K/9 and .325 BAA in 56 MLB innings.
3. Johnny Cueto, righty, age 21, pitched in high A, AA, and AAA in 2007, abt. 3.10 overall ERA, 2.05 ERA, 8.59 K/9 rate, .259 BAA in 22 AAA innings.
4. Matthew Maloney, Lefty, age 23, pitched in AA & AAA in 2007, abt. 3.50 overall ERA, .169 BAA and 12.17 k/9 rate in 17 AAA innings.
5. Ramon Ramirez, Righty, age 24, pitched in high A, AA, and AAA in 2007, abt. 4.30 overall ERA, 0.00 ERA, 9.82 K/9 rate, .149 BAA in 15 AAA innings.

Of course we also have Elizardo Ramirez, Tom Shearn, Phil Dumatrait, Mike Gosling, and other prospects (suspects really), available.

I would think if Homer can come back from his injury, we would have a solid #4 starter. One of these other guys might be a serviciable #5. Certainly not ideal, but Cueto will be very good by 2009.

Did you know that Bobby Livingston pitched the 5th most MLB innings of any current Red this year?

RedLegSuperStar
09-12-2007, 10:48 AM
I'm not sure if Belisle should be penciled in to the 2008 rotation. The free agent core isn't great but some could be a decent upgrade. Seeking a starter through trade would be welcomed. Arroyo has got to return to his 06 form. I would look for 2 starters outside of the organization whether through trade or free agency and let Belisle, Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Ramirez, and Shearn battle it out for the 5th spot in spring trainging.

paulrichjr
09-12-2007, 11:21 AM
Who should Krivs target in the free agent market? I just don't see anyone that will make a difference. I think that this team will only win with pitching coming up through the minors. It appears to me that teams have wised up and started giving their good players good contracts before they hit free agency. This has lead to free agency fast becoming irrevelent. Deals like the Reds gave to Arroyo and Harang are examples of this.

PuffyPig
09-12-2007, 11:27 AM
I'm not sure if Belisle should be penciled in to the 2008 rotation. The free agent core isn't great but some could be a decent upgrade. Seeking a starter through trade would be welcomed. Arroyo has got to return to his 06 form. I would look for 2 starters outside of the organization whether through trade or free agency and let Belisle, Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Ramirez, and Shearn battle it out for the 5th spot in spring trainging.


Belisle has a DIPS ERA of 4.69 this year, which puts him head and shoulders above any internal option we currently have not named Bailey and Cueto. He should likely be better next season than this.

I can't imagine that we will find 3 starters better than him for next year.

cincinnati chili
09-12-2007, 11:35 AM
They say this year's free agent class of pitchers will be worse than last year's. Seven of the 24 free agent starting pitchers from last year are performing average or better, and the cheapest one was Jason Marquis. Here is who was available last year:

CONTRACT PLAYER PERFORMANCE
minor league Brandon Claussen terribly in AAA
3 yr $ 1,920,000 Yoslan Herrera underwhelmingly in AA
minor league Runelvys Hernandez underwhelmingly in AAA
3 yr $47,000,000 Jason Schmidt terribly for Dodgers
3 yr $24,500,000 Adam Eaton terribly for Phillies
5 yr $20,000,000 Kei Igawa terribly for Yankees
1 yr $ 500,000 Jerome Williams disastrously for Nationals
minor league Victor Zambrano disastrously for Orioles
1 yr $ 4,000,000 Kip Wells poorly for Cardinals
1 yr $ 3,100,000 Ramon Ortiz poorly for Twins and Rockies
1 yr $ 1,500,000 Tomo Ohka poorly for Blue Jays
1 yr $ 1,000,000 Claudio Vargas poorly for Brewers
1 yr $ 380,000 Russ Ortiz poorly for Giants
4 yr $42,000,000 Jeff Suppan below average for Brewers
2 yr $12,500,000 Woody Williams below average for Astros
1 yr $ 7,500,000 Randy Wolf below average for Dodgers
1 yr $ 4,000,000 Joel Pineiro below average for Red Sox and Cardinals
7 yr$126,000,000 Barry Zito average in a pitcher's ball park for Giants
6 yr$103,111,111 Daisuke Matsuzaka average for Red Sox
3 yr $21,000,000 Jason Marquis slighly above average for Cubs
1 yr $16,000,000 Andy Pettitte above average for Astros
1 yr $10,000,000 Greg Maddux above average in a pitcher's ballpark for Padres
5 yr $55,000,000 Gil Meche career year (and a losing record) for Royals
4 yr $40,000,000 Ted Lilly career year for Cubs

Great analysis. Free agent pitchers are, by and large, a bad buy. I believe that one can acquire a series if average to better pitchers via trade, one's own system, and even the independent leagues. And if you screw up, the cost isn't nearly as high.

edabbs44
09-12-2007, 11:43 AM
I'm not ready to say he failed miserably. I think it's too much to say that any GM should be able to rebuild an entire pitching staff in one offseason. Is it realistic to say that Krivsky should have been able to bring in two league average starters and half (or more) of a league average bullpen? If that was the task, then it was doomed from the beginning.

Krivsky has acquired a ton of pitchers since he took over. Add them up and you have the worst ERA in the league.

It might be a lot to ask to "rebuild an entire pitching staff in one offseason", but it is extremely reasonable to expect a staff better than the worst. Especially with the amount of acquisitions this guy has made since coming over.

Krivsky's fingerprints are all over this staff...it's not like he inherited the whole thing. I can't go through it now, but how many pitchers who have made appearances in '07 were either acquired or entended by Wayne?

The scariest part is that he inherited the best pitcher on the roster. Without Harang, the staff would be one for the ages.

RedsManRick
09-12-2007, 12:02 PM
This really makes my point. It's not that there isn't a possibility of getting a #3 type starter in FA. It's that the odds of doing so are so low and cost of getting it wrong are so high. I, for one, am glad that we aren't on the hook for Suppan's next 3 years. That kind of mistake could lead to us having to cut bait with a Brandon Phillips when he hits arb.

While WK hasn't identified any new gems for the rotation, he also hasn't precluded himself from doing so in the future. O'Brien hooked us in to Milton and we had little wiggle room to improve. It might feel better, more proactive, to go out and spend a bunch of money in FA -- but that doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do. We have a much bigger pool of "could turn in to solid contributors" today than we had at the end of the 2005 season. Even if the staff is no better, it's in a much, much better position to improve. Yes, you actually have to realize that improvement for WK to get real credit, but let's not pretend like we're in the exact same boat as we were when Paul Wilson and Eric Milton were our aces and we had nobody in the pen (or AAA) who could break a pane of glass.

Kc61
09-12-2007, 12:20 PM
Krivsky has acquired a ton of pitchers since he took over. Add them up and you have the worst ERA in the league.

It might be a lot to ask to "rebuild an entire pitching staff in one offseason", but it is extremely reasonable to expect a staff better than the worst. Especially with the amount of acquisitions this guy has made since coming over.

Krivsky's fingerprints are all over this staff...it's not like he inherited the whole thing. I can't go through it now, but how many pitchers who have made appearances in '07 were either acquired or entended by Wayne?

The scariest part is that he inherited the best pitcher on the roster. Without Harang, the staff would be one for the ages.

I don't blame Krivsky so much as I blame an unwillingness to spend. Last off-season, they only went after cut rate guys. Relievers near the end of their careers; unproven starters like Livingston. But they didn't acquire a single starter or reliever in his prime -- in other words, the Reds didn't acquire anyone who costs real money.

People can denounce the free agent market all they want, but the Reds could have gone after Ted Lilly last winter. They need a lefty starter, he would have made sense. Many FA signings fail; but the good GMs tend to make good choices.

The Reds made no choices because they obviously felt it was premature to spend on pitching. And they didn't trade for proven pitching. And look at the resulting starting staff today. They barely have enough guys to run out there.

This year we've seen a parade of unproven pitchers. Bailey, Dumatrait, Livingston, EZ, McBeth, Coutlangus, Salmon, Burton, among others. We've also seen a host of question mark guys, like Majewski after last year's debacle.

It hasn't been a pitching staff. It's been a tryout camp.

I'm all in favor of using 3 or 4 spots on a pitching staff for unproven prospects or question mark guys. Maybe even 5. But you need about 7 or 8 real pitchers. And they cost money.

flyer85
09-12-2007, 12:27 PM
I don't blame Krivsky so much as I blame an unwillingness to spend. Last off-season, they only went after cut rate guys. Relievers near the end of their careers; unproven starters like Livingston. Bell was acquired by SD for next to nothing. My problem with WK is not as much what he does or doesn't do, it's that for the most part he targets the wrong type of pitcher.

Want to make the pen better, go acquire guys with some upside that are undervalued.

PuffyPig
09-12-2007, 12:47 PM
Bell was acquired by SD for next to nothing. My problem with WK is not as much what he does or doesn't do, it's that for the most part he targets the wrong type of pitcher.

Want to make the pen better, go acquire guys with some upside that are undervalued.

I'd sday the Burton acquisition falls intot he same category as Bell.

PuffyPig
09-12-2007, 12:50 PM
People can denounce the free agent market all they want, but the Reds could have gone after Ted Lilly last winter. They need a lefty starter, he would have made sense. Many FA signings fail; but the good GMs tend to make good choices.



Ted Lilly is probbaly the only FA starter on last years list that I would still be happy with his contract.

1 out of (how many).

So, there must be only 1 good GM out there.

And I don't know if Lilly would have been many poster's heres pick to be the best value among the signees.

flyer85
09-12-2007, 01:12 PM
I'd sday the Burton acquisition falls intot he same category as Bell.Burton was simply a shot on a good arm with command issues at AA, it didn't cost anything.

Bell was a guy who had dominated at AAA and pitched decently in the majors and a team had to give something up to get him(like the Denorfia/McBeth deal)

edabbs44
09-12-2007, 01:14 PM
I'd sday the Burton acquisition falls intot he same category as Bell.

Burton still has a lot to prove. 37 innings isn't going to get me too excited, especially with the 21 walks he's given up.

PuffyPig
09-12-2007, 01:21 PM
Burton still has a lot to prove. 37 innings isn't going to get me too excited, especially with the 21 walks he's given up.


But since the All star game, only 14 in over 28 innings (getting better), and only 5 in 15 innings in August.

His bad control in his first few games are skewing the stats quite a bit.

Patrick Bateman
09-12-2007, 01:21 PM
Burton still has a lot to prove. 37 innings isn't going to get me too excited, especially with the 21 walks he's given up.

I think the walks are misleading. He had a huge chunck at the beginning of the year. Since he's come back and been used plenty, he has been pretty much lights out.

Small sample size yes, but he's shown a lot lately in just about every aspect.

Highlifeman21
09-12-2007, 01:23 PM
Develop and acquire talent in 2008. If we're a .500 team, I'd be surprised.

Look at 2009 as the year to attempt to contend.

Why overpay for mediocre to average talent for 2008 when we still have multiple missing pieces?

wolfboy
09-12-2007, 01:31 PM
Krivsky has acquired a ton of pitchers since he took over. Add them up and you have the worst ERA in the league.

It might be a lot to ask to "rebuild an entire pitching staff in one offseason", but it is extremely reasonable to expect a staff better than the worst. Especially with the amount of acquisitions this guy has made since coming over.

Krivsky's fingerprints are all over this staff...it's not like he inherited the whole thing. I can't go through it now, but how many pitchers who have made appearances in '07 were either acquired or entended by Wayne?

The scariest part is that he inherited the best pitcher on the roster. Without Harang, the staff would be one for the ages.

I'm not defending what Krisvky has done. I'm defending what Krivsky hasn't done. You act as if a parade of excellent options marched right across Wayne's desk while he was looking the other way.

By and large, Wayne has sifted through the scrap heap just like every other GM. Most of what he found belonged there in the first place. Some other stuff was worth fishing out. For the most part, it's low cost trial and error. Every GM in baseball does it.

Falls City Beer
09-12-2007, 01:39 PM
The team, as predicted by many intelligent folks last offseason, got worse over the offseason. They were better last year--not by much--but they were better.

I'm afraid I can't get too jazzed about a guy who's being lauded for not spending money. While it's nice that he didn't sign a Milton or a Wilson, he still tied a bunch of cash up in garbage. Smaller pieces of garbage that can be dumped more easily, but still, he wasted a big percentage of the payroll on useless junk. So it's a fallacy to say that Krivsky left the Reds *poised* to make a talent splash. He didn't dump contracts like Milton's or Griffey's or Stanton's or Weathers's or Gonzalez's. I'll give him minor credit for not biting on signing Lohse beyond this year. But really, the Reds are in no more or less propitious a spot for picking up talent now than they were when DanO left.

The team is still bad, the minors are still a wasteland, and the pitching is at the absolute bottom of the barrel. I hope Castellini can see what the numbers are clearly telling him, and can Krivsky this offseason.

Falls City Beer
09-12-2007, 01:40 PM
By and large, Wayne has sifted through the scrap heap just like every other GM. Most of what he found belonged there in the first place. Some other stuff was worth fishing out. For the most part, it's low cost trial and error. Every GM in baseball does it.

Yep. Bowden did it in Cincy for twelve seasons. Time for bigger ideas, in my opinion.

PuffyPig
09-12-2007, 01:42 PM
You might suggest that we came into the 2007 season with Harang and Arroyo and a bunch of questions marks.

I think that Bray and Burton look like long term solutions. Weathers has pitched well, though I am forever questioning when it will stop.

Belisle looks like a back of the rotation starter. Bailey, Cueto and Maloney are potentially waiting in the wings.

We may have a ways to go, but I think we are in better shape now than we were a year ago.

PuffyPig
09-12-2007, 01:50 PM
The team, as predicted by many intelligent folks last offseason, got worse over the offseason. They were better last year--not by much--but they were better.

I'm afraid I can't get too jazzed about a guy who's being lauded for not spending money. While it's nice that he didn't sign a Milton or a Wilson, he still tied a bunch of cash up in garbage. Smaller pieces of garbage that can be dumped more easily, but still, he wasted a big percentage of the payroll on useless junk. So it's a fallacy to say that Krivsky left the Reds *poised* to make a talent splash. He didn't dump contracts like Milton's or Griffey's or Stanton's or Weathers's or Gonzalez's. I'll give him minor credit for not biting on signing Lohse beyond this year. But really, the Reds are in no more or less propitious a spot for picking up talent now than they were when DanO left.

The team is still bad, the minors are still a wasteland, and the pitching is at the absolute bottom of the barrel. I hope Castellini can see what the numbers are clearly telling him, and can Krivsky this offseason.

I don't agree that we are in worse shape now than a year ago.

Why would you "dump" contracts like Weathers or Gonzalez when they are very productive at their current rate?

The minors are a "wasteland"? It will be rated in the top third by BA when the rankings come out. Certainly alot better than your Cardinals, who will be lucky not to be in the bottom third.

We have Hamilton and Votto with Bruce close to contributing. He's the Minor League Player of the Year. Phillips continues to get better. Our SS has an OPS above .800. Our OF all have an OPS above .900. Harang has given us another #1 starter type year.

And our division keeps getting worse.

There's lots to be thankful for.

RedsManRick
09-12-2007, 01:54 PM
I'm just curious what this thread would look like if we had signed Jeff Suppan for 4 & 42 and he went out there and put up a 4.74 ERA and 1.49 WHIP (97K in 180 IP). We'd be about 2 games better than we are right now. Consider, that's one of the best deals signed this offseason and there are no guys of this caliber available this year.

Sure, he's a better option than any of the Dumatrait/Shearn/Livingston/Santos/Saarloos crew. But what happens in 2009 when Harang and Arroyo are really getting paid, Hamiton, EE, and Phillips are up for arbitration and there's not enough cabbage to go around? Are we competing with him? Do we still have room in the budget to improve?

The Astros are a great example of the risks of playing the FA/trade game. All they needed was a few league average starters. They signed Woody Williams and traded 2 top pitching prospects and a decent major league CF for Jennings.

In terms of how the pitchers have performed this year, it's:

Bucholz > Hirsch > Williams > Jennings.

Maybe it was a risk worth taking for the Astros. They had a similar case to be made as we do this year. Just make sure you consider the downside when you evaluate those risks. For the chance to compete this year, the Astros are out two league average (and still developing) cheap starters who the Rockies are riding to the playoffs this year and will help them compete for the future. The Astros are left with a 42 year old gimpy #4 starter and Jason Jennings medical bills.

Falls City Beer
09-12-2007, 01:55 PM
I don't agree that we are in worse shape now than a year ago.

Why would you "dump" contracts like Weathers or Gonzalez when they are very productive at their current rate?

The minors are a "wasteland"? It will be rated in the top third by BA when the rankings come out. Certainly alot better than your Cardinals, who will be lucky not to be in the bottom third.

We have Hamilton and Votto with Bruce close to contributing. He's the Minor League Player of the Year. Phillips continues to get better. Our SS has an OPS above .800. Our OF all have an OPS above .900. Harang has given us another #1 starter type year.

And our division keeps getting worse.

There's lots to be thankful for.


I can't argue that the offense is looking better, but Hamilton and Phillips represent the only major upgrades that Wayne's contributed.

Plus I think it would be ill-advised to think that the downward spiral of many of the Central teams will persist. Someone will get bold, win some trades, and continue to leave the Reds in the dust. Unless the Reds begin to get very aggressive.

Let's not forget: the Reds are an awful team in an awful division. That's a ton of inertia to overcome.

edabbs44
09-12-2007, 01:56 PM
I'm not defending what Krisvky has done. I'm defending what Krivsky hasn't done. You act as if a parade of excellent options marched right across Wayne's desk while he was looking the other way.

By and large, Wayne has sifted through the scrap heap just like every other GM. Most of what he found belonged there in the first place. Some other stuff was worth fishing out. For the most part, it's low cost trial and error. Every GM in baseball does it.

Come on...with that logic, Wayne will have a built in excuse for the rest of his life.

Here's the situation. For the most, part, the "lower risk" FA pitchers will cost A LOT of money. If Wayne fails to acquire one of those guys, then he is forgiven for not being able to afford them.

Now...the guys he can afford would be considered higher risk. But God forbid he takes a shot, since he might fail. So it's good that he didn't go and sign one of these guys.

Many don't want him to trade offense for pitching...it's like stealing from Peter to pay Paul.

Others don't want him to draft pitchers too high (which he isn't)...there's a lot of risk in that as well.

So how do we expect him to get the pitching?

Chip R
09-12-2007, 01:57 PM
They say this year's free agent class of pitchers will be worse than last year's. Seven of the 24 free agent starting pitchers from last year are performing average or better, and the cheapest one was Jason Marquis. Here is who was available last year:

CONTRACT PLAYER PERFORMANCE
minor league Brandon Claussen terribly in AAA
3 yr $ 1,920,000 Yoslan Herrera underwhelmingly in AA
minor league Runelvys Hernandez underwhelmingly in AAA
3 yr $47,000,000 Jason Schmidt terribly for Dodgers
3 yr $24,500,000 Adam Eaton terribly for Phillies
5 yr $20,000,000 Kei Igawa terribly for Yankees
1 yr $ 500,000 Jerome Williams disastrously for Nationals
minor league Victor Zambrano disastrously for Orioles
1 yr $ 4,000,000 Kip Wells poorly for Cardinals
1 yr $ 3,100,000 Ramon Ortiz poorly for Twins and Rockies
1 yr $ 1,500,000 Tomo Ohka poorly for Blue Jays
1 yr $ 1,000,000 Claudio Vargas poorly for Brewers
1 yr $ 380,000 Russ Ortiz poorly for Giants
4 yr $42,000,000 Jeff Suppan below average for Brewers
2 yr $12,500,000 Woody Williams below average for Astros
1 yr $ 7,500,000 Randy Wolf below average for Dodgers
1 yr $ 4,000,000 Joel Pineiro below average for Red Sox and Cardinals
7 yr$126,000,000 Barry Zito average in a pitcher's ball park for Giants
6 yr$103,111,111 Daisuke Matsuzaka average for Red Sox
3 yr $21,000,000 Jason Marquis slighly above average for Cubs
1 yr $16,000,000 Andy Pettitte above average for Astros
1 yr $10,000,000 Greg Maddux above average in a pitcher's ballpark for Padres
5 yr $55,000,000 Gil Meche career year (and a losing record) for Royals
4 yr $40,000,000 Ted Lilly career year for Cubs


Interesting list.

I think we all realize how difficult it is to get league average starting pitching without having to overpay for it. But it's not only difficult for the Reds, it's difficult for everyone. And if it's difficult for everyone, it's not just a matter of snapping your fingers and producing a league average pitcher who wants to sign for a decent price. Anyone in the same boat as the Reds are will go after these pitchers as well. It's not impossible to beat out the competition for these pitchers but it's going to be mighty difficult. The alternative is either rushing guys like Homer and Cueto up here or having guys like Shearn and Saarloos fill those roles. Not exactly a rosy picture.

PuffyPig
09-12-2007, 02:01 PM
The Astros are left with a 42 year old gimpy #4 starter and Jason Jennings medical bills.

Actually, Jennings is a FA. So they are left with a gimpy Woody.

And yes, I know what I just said.

RedsManRick
09-12-2007, 02:01 PM
The team is still bad, the minors are still a wasteland, and the pitching is at the absolute bottom of the barrel. I hope Castellini can see what the numbers are clearly telling him, and can Krivsky this offseason.

Just wow. We just had a Red farmhand named BA's minor league player of the year and our system is a wasteland. I guess unless you have to have the best system in baseball or it just doesn't count.

I'm all for realism. WK has a lot of work to do and the clock is ticking. But let's actually wait for the polls to close before we go declaring him a loser. You can't build a perennial winner by looking only 12 months ahead.

RedsManRick
09-12-2007, 02:04 PM
Interesting list.

I think we all realize how difficult it is to get league average starting pitching without having to overpay for it. But it's not only difficult for the Reds, it's difficult for everyone. And if it's difficult for everyone, it's not just a matter of snapping your fingers and producing a league average pitcher who wants to sign for a decent price. Anyone in the same boat as the Reds are will go after these pitchers as well. It's not impossible to beat out the competition for these pitchers but it's going to be mighty difficult. The alternative is either rushing guys like Homer and Cueto up here or having guys like Shearn and Saarloos fill those roles. Not exactly a rosy picture.

Of course, it's not like everybody knows which ones will do well and which ones won't. Even among the team's with cash to spare and an attractive locale, there's risk. Even if we "beat out the competition" for this year's Jason Schmidt, we might end up stuck with this year's Jason Schmidt.

The difference is that LA can survive a Jason Schmidt scenario. The Yankees can survive the Kei Igawa fiasco. We can't be Miltonized again.

PuffyPig
09-12-2007, 02:05 PM
I can't argue that the offense is looking better, but Hamilton and Phillips represent the only major upgrades that Wayne's contributed.



Well, first base is now manned by Hatteberg/Votto/Cantu which is a major upgrade over Casey and millions cheaper.

Gonzo replaced Lopez, and his hitting and fielding are way better at no additional cost.

Ross is cheaper and better than Larue.

So, that's 5 out of 8 postion players upgraded with cheaper, better players.

The 3 he hasn't touched are EE, Griffey and Dunn.

Kc61
09-12-2007, 02:11 PM
I'm not defending what Krisvky has done. I'm defending what Krivsky hasn't done. You act as if a parade of excellent options marched right across Wayne's desk while he was looking the other way.

By and large, Wayne has sifted through the scrap heap just like every other GM. Most of what he found belonged there in the first place. Some other stuff was worth fishing out. For the most part, it's low cost trial and error. Every GM in baseball does it.


Every GM does look for low cost alternatives. But, unlike good teams, the Reds look at low cost acquisitions and minor league players as its only means of improvement. The concept of adding a good player, who costs money now, is not part of their program. Particularly with pitching.

So let's look how this system -- building with youth and cheap guys -- has worked. Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr. could well be gone after next season or sooner. While Griff and Dunn haven't been uniformly healthy or effective, the Reds had them for years and failed to provide adequate pitching during their tenure. So this glacial pace of personnel acquisition has probably wasted the entire tenure of these two powerful hitters as Reds.

So now the Reds will be in the position of replacing these guys. How long will it take for the new offense to be ready for prime time. Two years? Three? Will the pitchers be good then? Or will we be talking about Kyle Lotzkar having a good season at High A ball in 2009 or 2010 and how he is likely to soon help.

You don't win because suddenly your farm teams transform into a winning major league club. You win because some kids develop, your best veterans perform, and you make good acquisitions of proven talent to fill needs. The last part is missing from this team's plan, again particularly with pitching.

edabbs44
09-12-2007, 02:12 PM
Well, first base is now manned by Hatteberg/Votto/Cantu which is a major upgrade over Casey and millions cheaper.

Gonzo replaced Lopez, and his hitting and fielding are way better at no additional cost.

Ross is cheaper and better than Larue.

So, that's 5 out of 8 postion players upgraded with cheaper, better players.

The 3 he hasn't touched are EE, Griffey and Dunn.

And amazingly, the team is performing at a Tampa like level.

Everyone likes to point out Wayne's "victories" on a player by player basis, but never talk about the bottom line.

PuffyPig
09-12-2007, 02:20 PM
And amazingly, the team is performing at a Tampa like level.

Everyone likes to point out Wayne's "victories" on a player by player basis, but never talk about the bottom line.

I'd rather that we lose more now but "improve for the future" than win more now but look worse in the years to come. Even though I'm sure you can really say that about us.

It really depends on what happens with Dunn and Griffey.

IslandRed
09-12-2007, 02:37 PM
I'm not a big Krivsky critic, and I fully understand the difficulty of finding pitching. Developing it takes a long time. Buying it usually costs more than it's worth. Trading for it works, but it still costs a lot (in talent if not in dollars), because those who have it are not inclined to part with it. He took over an organization about as bereft of pitching as one has ever been. I get all that.

Nonetheless, that's the task he faces. He's got to pull off a couple of winning deals for pitching somehow, some way, or else we're going nowhere.

Something that stuck with me from a recent BP article, from a writer defending the firing of Tim Purpura in Houston -- it may be quite an accomplishment to land a GM's job, but it's not good enough just to be one of the top 30 GMs. It's a competitive business; all things being equal, to win, a team needs a top-15 GM. Add in degree of difficulty (payroll) and maybe it takes a top-10, top-12 guy to succeed in Cincinnati. The writer thought Purpura was a decent GM but not upper-half, and as such, Houston was going to need to make a move sooner or later. The same argument can be made for Krivsky; decent GM in my book, but maybe not as good as he needs to be to win here without the eternal leash his mentor Terry Ryan got in Minnesota. If he creatively improves the team this offseason, I might change that opinion.

wolfboy
09-12-2007, 02:47 PM
Come on...with that logic, Wayne will have a built in excuse for the rest of his life.

Here's the situation. For the most, part, the "lower risk" FA pitchers will cost A LOT of money. If Wayne fails to acquire one of those guys, then he is forgiven for not being able to afford them.

Now...the guys he can afford would be considered higher risk. But God forbid he takes a shot, since he might fail. So it's good that he didn't go and sign one of these guys.

Many don't want him to trade offense for pitching...it's like stealing from Peter to pay Paul.

Others don't want him to draft pitchers too high (which he isn't)...there's a lot of risk in that as well.

So how do we expect him to get the pitching?

No, there aren't built in excuses with my logic, there's just reality. Reality begins when you accept that the problems with this organization transcend Wayne Krivsky, Dan O'Brien, or anyone else. They've been working on this period of futility since the last time they were called World Champs. Now you want all of that mismanagement and wasted resources to not be true?

I'm sorry, but we're more than a Ted Lilly away from anything close to respectability. That was the case last year. That is the case this year. That will be the case next year.

RedsManRick
09-12-2007, 02:49 PM
Interesting that you reference that article IR, because one of the points also made was that Astros owner Drayton McLane's interference and unreasonable demands adversely affected Purpura's ability to execute.

That's not necessarily a suggestion that Purpura would have done a good job otherwise, but it makes it more difficult to measure. It would be interesting to know firstly, just how involved Castellini is in specific decisions beyond setting the parameters by which Krivsky will be judged and secondly, how is Castellini really judging him?

Kc61
09-12-2007, 02:55 PM
No, there aren't built in excuses with my logic, there's just reality. Reality begins when you accept that the problems with this organization transcend Wayne Krivsky, Dan O'Brien, or anyone else. They've been working on this period of futility since the last time they were called World Champs. Now you want all of that mismanagement and wasted resources to not be true?

I'm sorry, but we're more than a Ted Lilly away from anything close to respectability. That was the case last year. That is the case this year. That will be the case next year.

Look at the numbers. Offensively, the team has scored 4th most in the league. Defensively, team PCT is .984, about league average, much improved and adequate.

With several additional good pitchers, this team could be good next year. Krivsky has made improvements. The infield is better. The bench is getting better with Hopper, Cantu, Keppinger.

No team has 12 good pitchers. The Reds only have 3-5 depending on how you count them. They need several more and -- barring injury, etc. -- they can be good.

The original premise of this thread is that the Reds can be good if they aggressively pursue pitching for next year. I believe that. But it costs money.

wolfboy
09-12-2007, 02:56 PM
Yep. Bowden did it in Cincy for twelve seasons. Time for bigger ideas, in my opinion.

There is no problem in rummaging through the scrap heap. As I said, every single team does it. There is a problem when that's your primary method of assembling a team. That was the Bowden method. I want to see a primary method that involves building organizational depth through scouting, drafting, and development.

wolfboy
09-12-2007, 03:02 PM
Look at the numbers. Offensively, the team has scored 4th most in the league. Defensively, team PCT is .984, about league average, much improved and adequate.

With several additional good pitchers, this team could be good next year. Krivsky has made improvements. The infield is better. The bench is getting better with Hopper, Cantu, Keppinger.

No team has 12 good pitchers. The Reds only have 3-5 depending on how you count them. They need several more and -- barring injury, etc. -- they can be good.

The original premise of this thread is that the Reds can be good if they aggressively pursue pitching for next year. I believe that. But it costs money.

It doesn't cost money, it costs a hell of a lot of money. Chip summed it up perfectly. Everyone is looking for league average pitching. We'll check in on this subject when we see what Kyle Lohse gets in FA.

IslandRed
09-12-2007, 03:05 PM
Interesting that you reference that article IR, because one of the points also made was that Astros owner Drayton McLane's interference and unreasonable demands adversely affected Purpura's ability to execute.

That's not necessarily a suggestion that Purpura would have done a good job otherwise, but it makes it more difficult to measure. It would be interesting to know firstly, just how involved Castellini is in specific decisions beyond setting the parameters by which Krivsky will be judged and secondly, how is Castellini really judging him?

Well, it certainly is old-school Steinbrenneresque to micromanage the GM and then fire him on account of your, er, his failures.

I've yet to see anything that suggests Castellini is overriding specific decisions, but it's possible he's dictating a strategic direction that limits some possibilities.

edabbs44
09-12-2007, 03:39 PM
No, there aren't built in excuses with my logic, there's just reality. Reality begins when you accept that the problems with this organization transcend Wayne Krivsky, Dan O'Brien, or anyone else. They've been working on this period of futility since the last time they were called World Champs. Now you want all of that mismanagement and wasted resources to not be true?

I'm sorry, but we're more than a Ted Lilly away from anything close to respectability. That was the case last year. That is the case this year. That will be the case next year.

I agree with you 100%. But, if that is the case and mindset of the FO, they shouldn't be dropping millions on Gonzalez, Stanton and the rest of the mediocre.

That's been my biggest problem for a while. If, as you say, they are "more than a Ted Lilly away" from "anything close to respectability", then what's the point of riding a $70 million payroll into the top 10 of the 2008 draft? I would understand if most of that money was coming off the books, but Wayne upped the OD payroll 16% from '06 to '07.

How does that make sense?

Falls City Beer
09-12-2007, 03:40 PM
Well, first base is now manned by Hatteberg/Votto/Cantu which is a major upgrade over Casey and millions cheaper.

Gonzo replaced Lopez, and his hitting and fielding are way better at no additional cost.

Ross is cheaper and better than Larue.

So, that's 5 out of 8 postion players upgraded with cheaper, better players.

The 3 he hasn't touched are EE, Griffey and Dunn.

If you want to hang your hat on the peg (and not so cheap peg anymore) that is David Ross, go ahead. He brings one of the most one-dimensional skill sets I've ever seen from a catcher (he's like a bad Eddie Taubensee). He is an all around joke of a ballplayer when considered in his entirety (offense/defense).

Votto's not his acquisition. Hatteberg's been okay, but he's a stopgap. Cantu is a bench player, and the sample size is still awfully small.

Okay, I forgot Gonzalez, but again, the Reds are paying market value for a guy who's on the downward slope, at least defensively.

Ltlabner
09-12-2007, 03:48 PM
If, as you say, they are "more than a Ted Lilly away" from "anything close to respectability", then what's the point of riding a $70 million payroll into the top 10 of the 2008 draft?

Uh....because you have to play the games and generate at least some money in the years between rolling out a world series bound team?

Ltlabner
09-12-2007, 03:52 PM
Reality begins when you accept that the problems with this organization transcend Wayne Krivsky, Dan O'Brien, or anyone else.

Bravo.

Wayne hasn't been perfect, but it's not as if he's come into a blank sheet of paper either.

Reality has to factor the years of orgizinational abuse into the equation. Before some wiseass says something about how that means he's excused for everything, it doesn't mean that at all. It just means that a *realistic* evaluation of his performance has to include the history leading up to his tenure to some degree. Argue about how much it is factored in, but unless you just love to wail and moan you have to factor it in on some level.

It will definatley be interesting to see how they squeeze blood from a turnip when it comes to pitching over the next 6 months.

edabbs44
09-12-2007, 04:06 PM
Uh....because you have to play the games and generate at least some money in the years between rolling out a world series bound team?

1) The team is in shouting distance from the #1 overall pick next year.

2) Average attendance is down from last year and sinking rapidly.

3) The team upped payroll from last year by a material amount (roughly 16%).


Let me know which fact doesn't belong.

wolfboy
09-12-2007, 04:24 PM
I agree with you 100%. But, if that is the case and mindset of the FO, they shouldn't be dropping millions on Gonzalez, Stanton and the rest of the mediocre.

That's been my biggest problem for a while. If, as you say, they are "more than a Ted Lilly away" from "anything close to respectability", then what's the point of riding a $70 million payroll into the top 10 of the 2008 draft? I would understand if most of that money was coming off the books, but Wayne upped the OD payroll 16% from '06 to '07.

How does that make sense?

As I said before, I'm not defending what Krivsky has done. I'm defending what he hasn't done.

That $70 million payroll isn't a product of Stanton and Gonzalez alone. A lot of players on this team were due raises, and we had to bring in some pieces. Krivsky's decisions on who to bring in weren't the best, and I'm not patting him on the back for that.

Of course, this roster isn't the envisioned result of some well crafted plan. Years of poor decision making have left us with the biggest piece of garbage $70 million can buy.

We've been hamstrung by Jr. and Milton's contracts. Guys like Ross and Freel are making too much. Guys like Stanton, Saarloos, and Castro have no business on this team. Has Krivsky contributed to this piece of junk? Yes. Is he the sole architect? No way.

The way I look at it, we are waaay beyond the tweaking stage. Tear this thing apart and start over. I hope to hell that I'm wrong, but I doubt it. If we go out and dump a bunch of money into a guy like LaRussa in the offseason, then I'll have even less faith that this organization can be fixed.

edabbs44
09-12-2007, 04:30 PM
The way I look at it, we are waaay beyond the tweaking stage. Tear this thing apart and start over. I hope to hell that I'm wrong, but I doubt it. If we go out and dump a bunch of money into a guy like LaRussa in the offseason, then I'll have even less faith that this organization can be fixed.

My sentiments exactly.

redsmetz
09-12-2007, 04:38 PM
The way I look at it, we are waaay beyond the tweaking stage. Tear this thing apart and start over. I hope to hell that I'm wrong, but I doubt it. If we go out and dump a bunch of money into a guy like LaRussa in the offseason, then I'll have even less faith that this organization can be fixed.

I'm not sure I'd calling it tweaking, but I've said this for a while (and think it's true more so now than earlier this season) - at its core, this team is not that far off. I think the title to this thread says it all "Reds need a few good pitchers in '08" - I think "tearing it down" would be catastrophic and would set this organization back many years. We absolutely have to beef up our pitching this off season, but we've been picking up pieces (the scrap heap many state) that ultimately can be fruitful for this club. We're not there, but we're not as far away as some here believe. The last two months have shown a much different team, IMO. It's still flawed, but it's not the same team as when the season started.

Ltlabner
09-12-2007, 05:15 PM
1) The team is in shouting distance from the #1 overall pick next year.

2) Average attendance is down from last year and sinking rapidly.

3) The team upped payroll from last year by a material amount (roughly 16%).


Let me know which fact doesn't belong.

Yep, Wayne has not gotten results this year. Something you've reminded us of once or twice. There's no disputing it. But that doesn't change relality that he had to field a team ( I guess he could have sat out a year, and just not played any games...), and your gibberish about just running Rey Olmedo out there and getting the same results has to stop. I would have thought the Dumatrait experiment would have convinced you that, yes, that guy in AAA can be worse. A lot worse.

So he fielded a team patched together that (1) didn't get rid of any key players (2) locked some key players up with reasonable LTCs and (3) plugged in low cost stop gaps where needed. Yes, he screwed up with Stanton, et al. But that doesn't change the fact he had so many cards to work with, and so many new cards to take from the pile.

Wayne gambled that he could patch together a team to be competitive in a crappy division. If it didn't work out the team wouldn't be harmed in the long term. If it did work out so much the better. You, on the other hand, would rather us go all in and damn the reprecussions in 2008, 2009 and 2010. I think I'll take Wayne's vision over your all in, shoot your bolt and hope you aren't screwed for years to come sillyness.

But overall you are right, the Reds spent more in 2007 for the privelege of making losing money. That's a bad business plan and their is no disputing it.

Warning: Numbers ahead, it might be scary.

Attendence Attendence Payroll
Reds Total Game
2006 1,880,634 25,762 2,006 $60,909,519
2007 2,134,472 26,351 2,007 $68,904,980
2007 A 2,086,731 25,762
Incr/
Diff -47,741 -2.29% -589 Decr $7,995,461 11.60%

Assume
$18/avg -$859,340 -$10,600

In other words, the Reds spent $8million dollars for the thril of losing $859,000 in gate reciepts. This is only gate recipts, no merchandising, conssions, etc. But it gives us a good starting point. The 2007 A figure = anualized attendence based on YTD totals.

Now, you are always pouting that the Reds should have been bold like the Dodgers, Cubs and KC and signed some real players like the Menches, Marquis and Pierre's of the world. If only they would have signed these ace players and not the dreck like Cromier. Let's see how they fared shall we.....


Attendence Attendence Payroll
Cubs Total Game
2006 3,007,555 40,100 2,006 $94,424,499
2007 3,130,304 39,040 2,007 $99,670,332
2007 A 3,248,159 40,101
Incr/
Diff 117,855 3.63% 1,061 Decr $5,245,833 5.26%

Assume
$35/avg $4,124,939 $37,126

So the Cubs upped payroll $5m or 5% and garnered an increased attendence of 117,000 people or a 3.6% increase. Based on their average ticket price they paid $5.2m to make $4.1 at the gate. So much for Marquis being a savior.

The Dodgers....


Dodgers Attendence Attendence Payroll
Total Game
2006 3,324,133 47,487 2,006 $98,447,187
2007 3,758,421 46,400 2,007 $108,454,524
2007 A 3,846,497 47,488
Incr/
Diff 88,076 2.29% 1,088 Decr $10,007,337 9.23%

Assume
$20/avg $1,761,515 $21,752

They upped payroll by $10m or 9% and got what? They are on pace for increased attendence of an extra 88,076 people total over 2006. That's a whole whopping 2.2% increase. More importantly they paid an $10 million dollars for the fun and excitement of making an extra $1.7 at the gate. Juan Pierre isn't the answer either I guess.

And the Royals. You've touted how we should have been bold and gotten someone like Menche. Well....


KC Attendence Attendence Payroll
Total Game
2006 1,481,984 20,301 2,006 $47,294,000
2007 1,372,684 17,158 2,007 $67,116,500
2007 A 1,644,393 20,301
Incr/
Diff 271,709 16.52% 3,143 Decr $19,822,500 29.53%

Assume
$14/avg $3,803,929 $44,004

They really upped the payroll by a whopping $19 million dollars or nearly 30%. In addition to hoping and praying Menche doesn't implode over the next several years, they paid $19,000,000 to make an additional $3.8 million by drawing an extra 271,000 people to the park over the course of the year. How that is a dramatic improvement over what Wayne has accomplished is beyond me.

____________________________________

Now, as I'm sure you will blow by all those big confusing numbers, the point is this. Wayne hasn't been perfect allocating his money, obviously, but quit acting like all your other hero teams have too.


* Yes, I know there is extra value in making the playoffs, NLCS, etc. Once those teams actually accomplish that you can argue the teams will make more in merchandising, tv money, etc.

* Source for team attendence here (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/attendance?sort=home_avg&year=2007&seasonType=2)

* Source for Average Ticket Prices here (http://www.teammarketing.com/fci.cfm?page=fci_mlb2006.cfm)

* Source for team payroll here (http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/teamresults.aspx?team=7)

edabbs44
09-12-2007, 05:31 PM
Funny thing is, I started my college career as a math major and nearly got a perfect score on the math section of my SATs. Numbers don't confuse me. But thanks for talking to me like a 4th grader. Wonderful demeanor.


You, on the other hand, would rather us go all in and damn the reprecussions in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

Where did I ever say that? I have said numerous times that Wayne needs to make a decision. Instead of spending money on drecks like Stanton, he should either spend it on players that will really help or spend it on the farm and minor leagues. I have said that, instead of giving millions to Lohse, he should draft Porcello and others who have dropped because of their price tags. I have said that instead of giving millions to Conine, he should give it to the hotshot 17 year old from the DR.

I have never said to "damn the reprecussions" or anything like that. Ever.

Ltlabner
09-12-2007, 05:38 PM
I have never said to "damn the reprecussions" or anything like that. Ever.

Your repeated insinuations that we should have gone after the Menches, Marquis, Pierres and Lilly's of the world with big money, long term deals is the eptiome is "damn the reprecussions".

edabbs44
09-12-2007, 05:50 PM
Your repeated insinuations that we should have gone after the Menches, Marquis, Pierres and Lilly's of the world with big money, long term deals is the eptiome is "damn the reprecussions".

Again, my belief was that if they really thought they could compete this year, these guys would have made more sense. I would have rather had Lilly or Meche than Lohse and whoever else we considered as the 5th starter to start the year.

My stance all along was to not sign any of these guys. In addition, Conine, Stanton, Lohse and Gonzalez were just wasted money. No one in their right mind thought this team was playoff worthy. I would have taken all that money and drafted the best player available in each round this past year and next. Signed a few bonus babies from Latin America. That philosophy would have had a better chance at getting this team to the playoffs than that quartet.

Kc61
09-12-2007, 05:53 PM
I'm not sure I'd calling it tweaking, but I've said this for a while (and think it's true more so now than earlier this season) - at its core, this team is not that far off. I think the title to this thread says it all "Reds need a few good pitchers in '08" - I think "tearing it down" would be catastrophic and would set this organization back many years. We absolutely have to beef up our pitching this off season, but we've been picking up pieces (the scrap heap many state) that ultimately can be fruitful for this club. We're not there, but we're not as far away as some here believe. The last two months have shown a much different team, IMO. It's still flawed, but it's not the same team as when the season started.

I agree with this post. I think the recent firings in the minor leagues may reflect Wayne's disappointment that he got so little help on the mound from the farm this year. The Bailey thing, Dumatrait, some of the relievers.

Looking at a division where the leader is 4 over .500, the question is clear: are the Reds willing to spend the money to have a representative pitching staff next year. It requires eating a few salaries, adding a few (bigger) salaries, making some good decisions about young pitchers. There will be relief from the Milton contract.

If the answer is yes, I think this team can compete. If not, hard to see it.

NJReds
09-13-2007, 10:09 AM
If Carl Pavano looks healthy enough, I'd take a flyer on him with a low offer on a 1-year deal with an incentive based option for year 2. Not sure what his physical status is, though. I think he could rebound with a return to the NL.

Highlifeman21
09-13-2007, 10:41 AM
If Carl Pavano looks healthy enough, I'd take a flyer on him with a low offer on a 1-year deal with an incentive based option for year 2. Not sure what his physical status is, though. I think he could rebound with a return to the NL.

Carl Pavano most likely is done as a major league pitcher. Injuries have claimed him.

We, however, should not.

wolfboy
09-13-2007, 01:26 PM
If Carl Pavano looks healthy enough, I'd take a flyer on him with a low offer on a 1-year deal with an incentive based option for year 2. Not sure what his physical status is, though. I think he could rebound with a return to the NL.

There's no way in the world I'd take a flier on Pavano. The guy is a head case with a brittle body. Even if he's healthy and snaps out of the flakiness that's plagued his stint in New York, I doubt the return is very high.

WebScorpion
09-17-2007, 10:10 AM
If I were Wayne, and I'm very happy that I'm not, my single acquisition for the off-season would be Greg Maddux. One of the greatest pitchers ever at getting every ounce of worth out of what is given to you. I'd acquire him more for his teaching potenetial than his arm. If just a little of his work ethic and methods can rub off on Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Burton, Bray, etc., he'd be worth every penny of a $9-10Mil contract. I might even install him as my #5 starter to keep him around but not in the rotation every turn. He's one guy whose upside is not determined solely by his stats, even though his stats aren't all bad either.

Rotation:
Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle, Maddux (Cueto in AAA awaiting the first major injury)