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mblanton
09-12-2007, 12:55 PM
The Reds are going to need at least 1 starting pitcher from the outside either via Free Agency or trade before next year. I don't see anything worth buying on the free agent market. Kyle Lohse may be the cream of the crop. That leaves us to find a starter via trade.

One pitcher I'd like the Reds to target is Noah Lowry of the Giants. We may be able to pry him away from the Giants. They need young offense and we need another quality starter. What are everybody's thoughts on Lowry? What if we had to give up Votto to get him?

durl
09-12-2007, 01:28 PM
What if we had to give up Votto to get him?

That's the big question. If the Reds need a good pitcher, we're going to have to give up a major producer or a younger player with tons of potential. Either way, I would say any such transaction would become the new "The Trade."

Natty Redlocks
09-12-2007, 01:42 PM
Mortgage the future for Johan Santana. Seriously. Bailey, Phillips, Votto might do it. As long as an extension is included. Doitdoitdoitdoitdoit

AmarilloRed
09-12-2007, 01:52 PM
The SP free agent market is weak, but I see the Reds going that route rather than a trade. I would not expect them to give give up any top prospects in a trade. It is possible they might trade Griffey or Edwin in an attempt to acquire back of the rotation help.

ChatterRed
09-12-2007, 02:26 PM
If Brandon Phillips gets traded, I will cease to be a Reds fan.

TheWalls
09-12-2007, 03:38 PM
I expect that trading is the only viable for the Reds to make a material upgrade to their starters in the offseason. Other than Phillips, I'm not sure anyone else is indispensible. There are several serviceable backups in the oufield if Dunn and/or Griffey move, Kepp at 3rd or SS if EE or AlGon get moved and neither Votto nor Hatte+Cantu are a must.

Natty Redlocks
09-12-2007, 03:53 PM
If Brandon Phillips gets traded, I will cease to be a Reds fan.

Seriously? When you have a guy like Keppinger to replace him? I like Phillips a lot, but as others have pointed out, he makes a whole ton of outs. He's got the flashy glove, and the pretty 30/30 next to his name (soon), but he's not a true run producer, nor does he give you consistently good at-bats. Keppinger makes all the plays he's supposed to make and gives you a good at-bat every time. He's a perfect #2 hitter. Phillips isn't patient enough to hit at the top of the lineup and he really doesn't have the power to hit in the heart of the order anywhere but this ballpark. Ideally, he'd hit sixth, and they have no shortage of guys who can hit sixth. Considering that his trade value may be at its highest, and the fact that they have a good cheap replacement for him, now is the time to find out what they can get for him. This team needs pitching way more than it needs two second basemen.

durl
09-12-2007, 04:34 PM
Of the position starters, I'd rank the "willingness to let them go" factor as:

1 - Freel (Keppinger and Hopper make Freel dispensable)
2 - Hatteburg (Is it Votto's time? Or Cantu's?)
3 - Encarnacion (Brilliant glove...bad aim. Plus inconsistent offensively.)

I'd put Dunn below EE somewhere. His run of late has made trading him a little tougher. I'd keep Griffey. If for no other reason than his contract/price tag makes him difficult to deal. (Plus I'd like him to retire as a Red.) Guys like Ross and Gonzalez, I'm not sure about. I like the way they both play.

No matter what the Reds do in this situation groups of fans will be ticked off.

UPRedsFan
09-12-2007, 05:47 PM
Instead of Lowry, I'd rather see a bigger splash and trade a big offensive piece for a younger, more talented starter. Dunn or Votto for the right return.

Billingsley, Lincecum, Baker or Garza?

SMcGavin
09-12-2007, 05:57 PM
The guys I'd be looking to deal are KGJ, Votto, EE. If any of those three can bring back a good young arm that's still relatively cheap, pull the trigger. Pitching is such a hot commodity, you have to give something of value to get it. Dealing KGJ would be priority #1 - not much of a change next season (downgrade to Bruce in RF canceled out by upgrade of new pitcher), and we'd be much better in 2009.

If Votto continues to hit up here this month I have to think he'd bring in something valuable. I'm not sure about EE's value, but I'd look into it. The common thread between KGJ, Votto, and EE is that each could be replaced with just a slight drop in production next season. If you can start to fix the rotation without touching our young core (Votto and EE are fringe core guys in my opinion), you have to do it.

Will M
09-12-2007, 06:42 PM
The Reds have 6 players for 4 positions ( Griffey, Bruce, Hamilton, Dunn, Votto & Hat/Cantu ).
Hat, Cantu, Hopper & Keppinger would make a great bench.
Even if we keep Hat we really need to trade one of the others for a starter.

Teams like Toronto, LA Angels, Twins, & Dodgers who have good staffs but weak offenses are the types of teams Krisky should look at to see if we have a trading 'fit'.

One player who hasn't been mentioned as a possible trade candidate is AJ Burnett. Toronto has a weak offense and has Halladay, Burnett & 2 good young starters.
Burnett could be available.

TheOnlyRedsFan
09-12-2007, 09:32 PM
what you guys think about going after Carlos Silva?

AmarilloRed
09-13-2007, 01:47 AM
Good idea if we can get him for a good price. It is debatable if we can, though.

HokieRed
09-14-2007, 02:04 AM
I am amazed at the undervaluation of EE on RZ. The fact that Cincinnati fans had inflated expectations of him this year isn't his fault. He has put together a very solid season, one in which he has improved the weakest part of his game tremendously, his defense. He plays probably the toughest position on the field to fill with a really solid player. He's a tremendous talent for a 24 year old. I wouldn't even consider trading him.

AmarilloRed
09-14-2007, 02:07 AM
We undervalue Adam Dunn all the time; why not do it for Edwin?:)

Will M
09-14-2007, 01:46 PM
what you guys think about going after Carlos Silva?

Silva is a servicable #4 starter ( like Lohse ) but the Reds probably need to spend their money on the stars and try to fill in the back of the rotation/bench/middle relief with cheaper options.

redsfanmia
09-14-2007, 06:44 PM
We undervalue Adam Dunn all the time; why not do it for Edwin?:)

I think most overvalue Dunn on this board.

AmarilloRed
09-15-2007, 02:06 AM
It is possible we may only need 1. Shearn is doing well, and there is Belisle. Homer Bailey is working out in Florida this month. If he can have a impressive spring training, Homer could head north with the big club. I realize it would be a risk to count on either Shearn or Bailey, but things are definitely looking better for next year.

Orenda
09-15-2007, 10:22 AM
It is possible we may only need 1. Shearn is doing well, and there is Belisle. Homer Bailey is working out in Florida this month. If he can have a impressive spring training, Homer could head north with the big club. I realize it would be a risk to count on either Shearn or Bailey, but things are definitely looking better for next year.

I would love if Homer Bailey was the 5th starter, that would mean the reds went and got servicable 3 and 4 starters. This would relieve some of the pressure placed on the young pitcher. Also, the reds would have the benefit of having a 5th starter with potential to become a front of the rotation guy, or someone who could go on a hot streak and help build positive momentum or stop losing streaks. This however would go against all traditional reds pitching logic and I fear it might take multiple Willy Mo Pena bobblehead nights to get a skeptical fan base back into the stadium.

Carolina Red
09-15-2007, 10:49 AM
I think the Reds might try to trade Alex Gonzalez. We have to find a place to play Keppinger and right now shortstop seems to be the best option (or possibly move Phillips there). Besides, Gonzalez makes a pretty hefty salary. If we free that up and combine it with Milton's money we could make a run at a good FA pitcher. We would still have Freel as a utility IF/OF and Hopper as a utility OF. My hopes for next season would be:

SP's:

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. To be signed FA (Maybe Schilling?)
4 Bailey
5. Belisle

Fielders:

SS Keppinger
2B Philips
RF Griffey
LF Dunn
CF Hamilton
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto/ Cantu
C Ross

muethibp
09-15-2007, 11:23 AM
I think the Reds might try to trade Alex Gonzalez. We have to find a place to play Keppinger and right now shortstop seems to be the best option (or possibly move Phillips there). Besides, Gonzalez makes a pretty hefty salary. If we free that up and combine it with Milton's money we could make a run at a good FA pitcher. We would still have Freel as a utility IF/OF and Hopper as a utility OF. My hopes for next season would be:

SP's:

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. To be signed FA (Maybe Schilling?)
4 Bailey
5. Belisle

Fielders:

SS Keppinger
2B Philips
RF Griffey
LF Dunn
CF Hamilton
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto/ Cantu
C Ross

Are you talking about Curt Schilling? :laugh::laugh::laugh:

NeilHamburger
09-15-2007, 03:39 PM
I recently spent a great deal of money at the lair of a soothsayer in the hills of Babu, just north of the mystical town of Gammu. Here is what I heard the rotation will look like next season:

Johan Santana
Brandon Webb
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Danny Jackson

jnwohio
09-15-2007, 03:54 PM
Did I see up the thread a bit where someone said Phillips doesn't really produce runs? He's got a shot a at 100RBIs to go with the 30/30.

Every media person, print & broadcast, who covers this team is talking him up as the best defensive 2B in the entire league.

I guess we must be positioning him to become the next Dunn in terms of being under appreciated and a target for criticism.

AmarilloRed
09-15-2007, 04:00 PM
Here is what I would like to see: 1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. FA Pitcher
4. Bailey
5. Belisle

Here is what we might end up seeing 1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Bailey
4. Belisle
5. Shearn

SMcGavin
09-16-2007, 02:21 AM
I am amazed at the undervaluation of EE on RZ. The fact that Cincinnati fans had inflated expectations of him this year isn't his fault. He has put together a very solid season, one in which he has improved the weakest part of his game tremendously, his defense. He plays probably the toughest position on the field to fill with a really solid player. He's a tremendous talent for a 24 year old. I wouldn't even consider trading him.

If you wouldn't trade a 3B with a .772 OPS for a league average starting pitcher, you're nuts. Trades are not about not liking the guys we have, they are about getting guys who are better.

INRedsFan
09-16-2007, 05:14 PM
The Pirates have a lot of pitching stacked up thoughout their organization. I know it is a gamble, but I like Brian Bullington who spent most of the year in their AAA organization. He was a September call up to the big leagues. We could of had him for $800K this season.

texasdave
09-17-2007, 11:19 AM
Bump. It is heard on this board constantly that Player A is undervalued or Player B is undervalued by alot of people. It is also heard constantly that the Reds should not trade Players C, D or E.
To those I would ask to consider this.

Everyone acknowledges the value of pitching, but perhaps these numbers will hammer home just exactly how important pitching is. From 1995-2006 there have been 48 teams make the playoffs in the National League. The average ERA+ of these 48 teams is 110! Repeating for emphasis, the average ERA+ of the 48 NL teams that have made the playoffs since 1995 is 110.
During this same time period only 4 out of 48 teams have made the playoffs with an ERA+ of below 100 (100 being league average). Only 8.3% of the teams making the playoffs had below league-average pitching! Not very good odds if you ask me. And if you take a closer look at these 4 teams, 3 made it in flukish situations. The '06 Cardinals won just 83 games. The '05 Padres did even worse - winning just 82 games. The '97 Giants did win 90 games, but out-performed their Pythag by 10 games!:eek: The '98 Cubs won 90 games, by out-performing their Pythag by a mere 5 games. It is fairly clear that if you are going to make the playoffs with a below league-average pitching staff, you had better have a pocketful of luck.
The 2007 Cincinnati Reds are currently sporting a not-so-shiny ERA+ of 94. Barring something close to a miracle, this is nowhere close to being good enough. Even in the weak 2007 NL Central, this pitching staff isn't going to get the job done. And it won't work in 2008 either.
Maybe everything clicks in 2008. Maybe the Reds fish out the three starters they need from a pool of Cueto, Bailey, Belisle, Maloney, Shearn etc. And maybe it all clicks for the young arms in the bullpen, such as Mcbeth, Salmon, Bray, Coutlangus etc.
IMO that would require a truckload of four-leaf clovers. I just don't see it happening.
So a bat or two must be dealt. And these players have to have sufficient value to bring the needed pitching back in return.
The Reds must not hold on to all of their offensive weapons, because Santa isn't leaving any quality arms under the team Christmas tree. WK has to grit his teeth and sacrifice some offense for some pitching.
Anyway, that is how I see it.

Slyder
09-17-2007, 12:52 PM
Edwin's value is at a low right now. Teams see the same stuff we do.

If you trade Edwin now then be ready for it to turn into "the Trade Duex" or Paul O'Neill for Roberto Who?

We've got some flexibility with position players send out all the lines and see what bites first. I doubt if Edwin would really bring back that much and he's still just 24 you can't just trade him for the sake of trading him.

texasdave
09-17-2007, 01:08 PM
I would agree that Edwin Encarnacion should be shined up a little more before the Reds attempt to move him. If he continues to play well through the All-Star break of 2008 his perceived value should rise.

My philosophy is it is better to have too much pitching than too much offense. Because offensive pieces are more easily obtained IMO.

If Wayne Krivsky cannot identify good pitching this franchise is sunk. But if his strength lies in acquiring talented young players cheaply, the franchise can move only so far forward if it acquires such players and holds on to them. If WK doesn't acquire, shine up and trade such pieces he is effectively stuck. His greatest strength is neutralized. For example, how do the Reds know that they have picked up the next potential Brandon Phillips, if there is no playing time available for him? The Reds didn't know exactly what they had in BP until they gave him regular playing time. So if regular playing time becomes unavailable, what then? The franchise has a better chance to move much further ahead if they 'assembly-line' players. Trade for, shine up, trade away.

HokieRed
09-17-2007, 03:39 PM
Kyle Lohse is probably a league average starting pitcher. Would we trade EE to the Phillies for Lohse?

GoReds33
09-17-2007, 03:50 PM
what you guys think about going after Carlos Silva?I have been talking about him all year. He would be a pretty good pitcher for this team. He is very underrated. Maybe 4 years, 46-48 mil. Its alot. I think he's worth it though.:)

Jay Bruce
09-17-2007, 04:58 PM
Kyle Lohse is probably a league average starting pitcher. Would we trade EE to the Phillies for Lohse?

If Lohse was not going to be a free agent at the end of the season, and had a few more inexpensive years left for the Reds to control, then yes, I would trade EE for a Loshe type pitcher.

texasdave
09-17-2007, 05:01 PM
If Lohse was not going to be a free agent at the end of the season, and had a few more inexpensive years left for the Reds to control, then yes, I would trade EE for a Loshe type pitcher.

I agree. Pitching-wise Lohse would fit. Salary-wise not so much.

HokieRed
09-17-2007, 05:09 PM
One problem is that it will always take a few years for a guy to establish himself as a league average pitcher and you'll have the same problem with salary differentiation as in a trade of EE for Lohse. That's part of why I wouldn't deal EE for the league average starting pitcher: because he's a 24 year old at a difficult position with lots of upside. Why not just take on the extra salary through free agency?

HokieRed
09-17-2007, 05:14 PM
Another hypothetical. Eric Milton was surely a league average starting pitcher before coming to the Reds. Would you trade EE now for Milton as of 2005? or, while we're thinking of it, for the other busts of that free agent season--Russ Ortiz, Odalis Perez, Matt Clement, etc.

RedsMightWin
09-17-2007, 05:27 PM
I wish money wasn't an issue :(

texasdave
09-17-2007, 05:54 PM
Another hypothetical. Eric Milton was surely a league average starting pitcher before coming to the Reds. Would you trade EE now for Milton as of 2005? or, while we're thinking of it, for the other busts of that free agent season--Russ Ortiz, Odalis Perez, Matt Clement, etc.

We can cherry-pick names all day to fit whatever point we are trying to make. Here's one that comes to mind pretty readily. EE for Arroyo?

SMcGavin
09-17-2007, 06:18 PM
Edwin's value is at a low right now. Teams see the same stuff we do.

If you trade Edwin now then be ready for it to turn into "the Trade Duex" or Paul O'Neill for Roberto Who?

We've got some flexibility with position players send out all the lines and see what bites first. I doubt if Edwin would really bring back that much and he's still just 24 you can't just trade him for the sake of trading him.

That's fine, I don't think anybody is advocating trading him for the sake of trading him. We are saying if you can get a pitcher for him, jump on it. The point is that we need to get pitching from somewhere, and the free agent market probably isn't happening. These are the Reds position players who could maybe be moved for a useful SP:

Dunn
Griffey (doubtful due to deferred salary concerns)
Bruce
Votto
EE
Phillips
Hamilton

Those are the useful chips. Right now Matt Belisle is our 3rd best starter. Even if Homer Bailey works out for next year, a huge if, we would be going into opening day with Shearn or Ramirez in the rotation. Somebody has to be brought in from the outside, so the question is, which of those 7 guys should be dealt to get him? Maybe EE can't get a league average SP, but Votto or Phillips probably could. You have to deal quality to get it, and the Reds FO has a tough decision to make. This is opening up a whole new can of worms, but I'd think long and hard about making Phillips available while his value is high.

Also, hate to break up the EE lovefest, but the average OPS from a starting MLB 3B is .838. Edwin is hanging out in the .770 range. Potential or not, he has been a bad third baseman in 2007.

SMcGavin
09-17-2007, 06:22 PM
Bump. It is heard on this board constantly that Player A is undervalued or Player B is undervalued by alot of people. It is also heard constantly that the Reds should not trade Players C, D or E.
To those I would ask to consider this.

Everyone acknowledges the value of pitching, but perhaps these numbers will hammer home just exactly how important pitching is. From 1995-2006 there have been 48 teams make the playoffs in the National League. The average ERA+ of these 48 teams is 110! Repeating for emphasis, the average ERA+ of the 48 NL teams that have made the playoffs since 1995 is 110.
During this same time period only 4 out of 48 teams have made the playoffs with an ERA+ of below 100 (100 being league average). Only 8.3% of the teams making the playoffs had below league-average pitching! Not very good odds if you ask me. And if you take a closer look at these 4 teams, 3 made it in flukish situations. The '06 Cardinals won just 83 games. The '05 Padres did even worse - winning just 82 games. The '97 Giants did win 90 games, but out-performed their Pythag by 10 games!:eek: The '98 Cubs won 90 games, by out-performing their Pythag by a mere 5 games. It is fairly clear that if you are going to make the playoffs with a below league-average pitching staff, you had better have a pocketful of luck.
The 2007 Cincinnati Reds are currently sporting a not-so-shiny ERA+ of 94. Barring something close to a miracle, this is nowhere close to being good enough. Even in the weak 2007 NL Central, this pitching staff isn't going to get the job done. And it won't work in 2008 either.
Maybe everything clicks in 2008. Maybe the Reds fish out the three starters they need from a pool of Cueto, Bailey, Belisle, Maloney, Shearn etc. And maybe it all clicks for the young arms in the bullpen, such as Mcbeth, Salmon, Bray, Coutlangus etc.
IMO that would require a truckload of four-leaf clovers. I just don't see it happening.
So a bat or two must be dealt. And these players have to have sufficient value to bring the needed pitching back in return.
The Reds must not hold on to all of their offensive weapons, because Santa isn't leaving any quality arms under the team Christmas tree. WK has to grit his teeth and sacrifice some offense for some pitching.
Anyway, that is how I see it.

Good post. The two big questions of the offseason are related in my mind:

1. What do with Dunn (trade, LTC, or let him play 2008 on a 1 year deal)
2. Who is dealt for pitching? The emergence of Hamilton and Keppinger (and the quick rise of Bruce) has given us some options, in that we have a decent backup for any position that is traded. So... who's it gonna be?

HokieRed
09-17-2007, 10:23 PM
Not a matter of cherry picking names, Texas, there is always inherent risk in trading position players for pitchers. In part this is because everyone needs starting pitchers and so it's very rarely anybody trades a really good one--one that is actually a real difference maker--for a position player. Minnesota's been mentioned as a possible place to trade EE, but what will you get from Minnesota. You're not going to get Santana, Silva, Garza, or Bonser.

Slyder
09-18-2007, 12:05 AM
That's fine, I don't think anybody is advocating trading him for the sake of trading him. We are saying if you can get a pitcher for him, jump on it. The point is that we need to get pitching from somewhere, and the free agent market probably isn't happening. These are the Reds position players who could maybe be moved for a useful SP:

Dunn
Griffey (doubtful due to deferred salary concerns)
Bruce
Votto
EE
Phillips
Hamilton

Those are the useful chips. Right now Matt Belisle is our 3rd best starter. Even if Homer Bailey works out for next year, a huge if, we would be going into opening day with Shearn or Ramirez in the rotation. Somebody has to be brought in from the outside, so the question is, which of those 7 guys should be dealt to get him? Maybe EE can't get a league average SP, but Votto or Phillips probably could. You have to deal quality to get it, and the Reds FO has a tough decision to make. This is opening up a whole new can of worms, but I'd think long and hard about making Phillips available while his value is high.

Also, hate to break up the EE lovefest, but the average OPS from a starting MLB 3B is .838. Edwin is hanging out in the .770 range. Potential or not, he has been a bad third baseman in 2007.

How's his numbers looked since the recall? He was wretched for the first couple months and took his medicine and got his head on straight and been playing better.

Why stop at those 7? It takes just one team to overvalue a player.

What about shopping (among others):
Alex Gonzalez (he comes back to ST with everything taken care of and has a Rich Aurilia esque start, he'll be what 31?)
Norris Hopper (can play all 3 OF positions, hit very well may or may not have a long term position with the Reds with some of the guys in the farm, Dunn, Hamilton, Votto, etc)
Chris Dickerson
Scott Hatteberg (granted I wouldnt expect someone young, but he might bring a solid vet who could fill the need)
weve done a lot with bringing in "aaa guys" maybe work some package of deal where we get a youngish pitcher and spect for a package of a couple guys.

I(heart)Freel
09-18-2007, 12:05 AM
For the record, Kriv has a track record of selling "potential" for "difference making pitcher." And to Theo Epstein no less!

Let's see if he can't do it again in the offseason. Plus this time, he can throw in Freel to sweeten the deal if needed. Good, deep teams would love a Freel on the bench.

SMcGavin
09-18-2007, 12:13 AM
Why stop at those 7? It takes just one team to overvalue a player.

What about shopping (among others):
Alex Gonzalez (he comes back to ST with everything taken care of and has a Rich Aurilia esque start, he'll be what 30?)
Norris Hopper (can play all 3 OF positions, hit very well may or may not have a long term position with the Reds with some of the guys in the farm)
Chris Dickerson
Scott Hatteberg (granted I wouldnt expect someone young, but he might bring a solid vet who could fill the need)
weve done a lot with bringing in "aaa guys" maybe work some package of deal where we get a youngish pitcher and spect for a package of a couple guys.

Because you aren't going to get anyone good for any of those players. I wouldn't even trade a Matt Belisle for any of those four. You want someone good (or even average), it's gonna take one of the seven I named.

HokieRed
09-18-2007, 12:31 AM
I agree that the 7 names are the only ones anybody is going to trade even a league average starter for. Actually I think there are only 6, Griffey's salary and age making it unlikely anyone will trade for him, and if I were a GM, I'd be very wary of Hamilton, based on his limited period of success, and of Votto, who's going to end the year with maybe 50 AB's. Bruce I'd consider untouchable and there's a problem of contract with Dunn, plus limited places that are going to be willing to pay what he will demand over the next half dozen years, particularly if he has to be a DH. Then, if you look at the starting pitching of nearly every club around the major leagues, they all face a similar problem. They may have two or three pitchers with sub 4.50 ERA's, but they can hardly afford to deal one of those guys, and then they'll have a couple of guys with 5-6ERA's. So the guys they will trade you won't help you, and the ones that would help you, they can't afford to trade--no matter what they get in return (because then they have to go out and do the same next-to-impossible thing you're trying to do--find starting pitching). My conclusion: look very carefully at the free agent market, look for a deal but don't overpay for somebody who's only a hair better than Belisle, try to find another Livingston around the fringes. It's pretty likely we won't find anybody and will take our lumps next year with Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney, and frankly, I think that's just pain we still have to take for the neglect of the drafting and farm system by Jimbo.

GoReds44
09-18-2007, 12:37 AM
I wish money wasn't an issue :(

It's not....




For the Yankees:p:

AmarilloRed
09-18-2007, 01:50 AM
We might be able to swing a trade with a combination of players. I have seen Edwin and Votto mentioned in a trade on the ORG for a quality starting pitcher. First and third base are two positions we do not have much depth at, but with Keppinger and Cantu in the infield it may be a trade to look at.

texasdave
09-18-2007, 02:44 PM
If Matt Belisle is in the starting rotation for 2008 it is going to be one long season. It could be a long season even if he is. His season-long statistics are bad. This might be overlooked if he was starting to show some progress. But the exact opposite is true. In his last 21 starts these are his numbers:



ERA WHIP K/9 HR/9 OPSA
6.10 1.61 6.2 1.79 0.908


Those numbers are not very encouraging. It's possible that the light will come on at the age of 28, considering Belisle has not pitched a ton of innings at the major league level. But, IMO, it is not likely to happen.

RedsMightWin
09-18-2007, 02:47 PM
Someone just needs to teach Matt how to not give up 3 run homers.

texasdave
09-18-2007, 02:52 PM
Someone just needs to teach Matt how to not give up 3 run homers.

Matt might just be a little confused. He once read that Earl Weaver said 3-run homers were good for a team. :)

dthomas24
09-18-2007, 04:18 PM
Sign John Leiber! Before you trash this here me out. We have guys on this staff, or soon to be on the staff, who have loads of potential (Belisle, Homer, Cueto, etc.) and there needs to be a leader on this staff who can show them how to prepare, how to approach hitters, tricks of the trade, etc. Arroyo is too busy thinking about guitar riffs and Harang comes off as a quiet guy who is just a freak on the mound. The FA crop is thin this coming off-season but I think a guy like Leiber could help not only on the hump but as a leader of the pitching staff.

Any thoughts?

RedsMightWin
09-18-2007, 04:40 PM
Sign John Leiber! Before you trash this here me out. We have guys on this staff, or soon to be on the staff, who have loads of potential (Belisle, Homer, Cueto, etc.) and there needs to be a leader on this staff who can show them how to prepare, how to approach hitters, tricks of the trade, etc. Arroyo is too busy thinking about guitar riffs and Harang comes off as a quiet guy who is just a freak on the mound. The FA crop is thin this coming off-season but I think a guy like Leiber could help not only on the hump but as a leader of the pitching staff.

Any thoughts?
I would like to take my shot as Schilling :p:

dthomas24
09-18-2007, 04:42 PM
I would like to take my shot as Schilling :p:

Schilling would be great but I think his price would be jacked up compared to someone like Leiber.

RedsMightWin
09-18-2007, 04:46 PM
Schilling would be great but I think his price would be jacked up compared to someone like Leiber.

Yea no doubt about that.

Vada Pinson Fan
09-18-2007, 11:50 PM
I wouldn't trade young, cheap talent such as Joey Votto for a Noah Lowry. I keep all of my young position players and try to sell the idea to Ken Griffey Jr. about a trade to a year-in and year-out World Series contender such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and possibly the Braves. We all know that Jr. has to give his permission/sign-off on any trade involving KGJ.

Jay Bruce has proven everything he had to in the minors and capped off by being named the Red's 1st ever "Minor League Player of the Year" by Baseball America. Griffey goes IF another team wants him and his contract for a #2-3 type Major League Starter or a solid #2 minor league pitcher plus other considerations going to the Reds. I want Bruce on the Reds Opening Day while Harang and Arroyo are still here and in their prime. The Reds in 2008 have a very good chance to be young and greatly improved over the 2007 model.

For get about acquirring Curt Schilling. Won't happen. Too old and health is too much of a risk to take on Schilling not to mention his salary (demands). A trade is a must for pitching.

Hatteberg, Cantu, Griffey, Freel are pieces that have very good value and would fit nicely with other teams! But please , Wayne Krivsky, don't trade away the Reds future for anything other than a Santanna, Webb or Beckett.

I wonder what it would take to land Cole Hammels from the Phillies? If the Phillies are smart; Hammels is untouchable. But you never know unless you ask and make an offer.

Will M
09-19-2007, 12:23 AM
If Matt Belisle is in the starting rotation for 2008 it is going to be one long season. It could be a long season even if he is. His season-long statistics are bad. This might be overlooked if he was starting to show some progress. But the exact opposite is true. In his last 21 starts these are his numbers:



ERA WHIP K/9 HR/9 OPSA
6.10 1.61 6.2 1.79 0.908


Those numbers are not very encouraging. It's possible that the light will come on at the age of 28, considering Belisle has not pitched a ton of innings at the major league level. But, IMO, it is not likely to happen.

1. agree. Belisle is no more than one of 3-4 candidates for the #5 starter.

2. I am interested to see how Bailey pitches. If he pitches well in his 3 starts then I suspect Wayne will only go out and get one starter for next year. If Bailey struggles then Wayne will somehow have to find two.

RedsMightWin
09-19-2007, 12:24 AM
Beckett, Webb and Hammels are going no where so just wake up from that little dream sequence.

Willis is probably the most "gettable" pitcher on the trade market.

onefortheroad
09-19-2007, 12:29 AM
If Bailey can't look good against the Giants and Astros then he has a lot bigger problems. These 2 starts are to boost his confidence after a terrible stint in June/July.

Will M
09-19-2007, 12:33 AM
Beckett, Webb and Hammels are going no where so just wake up from that little dream sequence.

Willis is probably the most "gettable" pitcher on the trade market.

A.J. Burnett may be available. The Blue Jays need offense and they have excess starters ( Halladay, Burnett & two good youngsters ).

The Reds could also try to find someone hiding in a pen ( Aaron Heilman comes to mind for some reason ) who they could slot in as a #4 starter with potential upside.

onefortheroad
09-19-2007, 12:36 AM
I can tell you that the Mets will never give up Heilman. He also would be the #2 starter behind Harang for the Reds. His stuff is filthy.

RedsMightWin
09-19-2007, 12:41 AM
Santana is about the only guy I would be interested in giving up any of our main prospects for, and hes pretty much unsignable for the Reds after next season.

SMcGavin
09-19-2007, 01:19 AM
Belisle is the least of our worries, he's got a FIP in the 4.60 range, a K/9 over 6, and a walk rate around 2 BB/9. He has been a bit unlucky this year is all. I'm not saying he's anything special, but he's got a chance to be average next year and that's something nobody else not named Arroyo and Harang can say. The odds of us producing THREE pitchers who are better than Matt Belisle before next spring are next to zero. In fact, if I was the Reds it is the Matt Belisles of the world I'd be targeting - pitchers who had a pretty poor 2007 but are good bet to be at least decent in 2008, and who wouldn't cost a great fortune to get.

AmarilloRed
09-19-2007, 01:35 AM
This really has been Belisle's rookie year. Most pitchers do not dominate when they are starting out, and Belisle is no exception. I look to him to make some improvement next year, and do much better as the fifth starter.

texasdave
09-19-2007, 09:58 AM
Nobody is saying that Matt Belisle does not have a chance to be league-average. What I am saying is that he seems to be regressing, not progressing. In his first 7 starts he had a FIP of around 2.75. Excellent. Since then it has been a different story. In his last 21 starts - the bulk of his season - his K rate has dropped slightly (still over 6/9 IP), his BB rate has jumped to 2.7/9 IP and his FIP has risen to around 5.30. To me that does not bode well. You may very well be right and Matt Belisle could turn into an adequate starting pitcher. That would be great for the Reds. I just don't have much faith in that happening.

RedsMightWin
09-19-2007, 10:13 AM
Matt looks to have some promise. He just needs to control his big innings. I have no stats on it but he seems to have a bunch of good innings and like 1 bad inning a game.

HokieRed
09-19-2007, 11:19 AM
I hope we will not trade for a starting pitcher, primarily because it seems to me that Krivsky is most effective working around the edges of player acquisition rather than making higher profile deals. He deserves tremendous credit for the acquisitions of Hamilton, Burton, Phillips, Keppinger and Coutlangus and McBeth may also help the club, as Bobby Livingston certainly would have and may yet. That's a lot of value to pick up in a relatively short period, and I think he's got a lot better chance to get another starter this way than he does by making a deal in which we will almost surely overpay, given the value to every team of even mediocre starting pitching.

SMcGavin
09-19-2007, 12:13 PM
Nobody is saying that Matt Belisle does not have a chance to be league-average. What I am saying is that he seems to be regressing, not progressing. In his first 7 starts he had a FIP of around 2.75. Excellent. Since then it has been a different story. In his last 21 starts - the bulk of his season - his K rate has dropped slightly (still over 6/9 IP), his BB rate has jumped to 2.7/9 IP and his FIP has risen to around 5.30. To me that does not bode well. You may very well be right and Matt Belisle could turn into an adequate starting pitcher. That would be great for the Reds. I just don't have much faith in that happening.

You make a good point. I would chalk up some of his more recent struggles to throwing so many innings for the first time in a while, but there's no way to really know if that's the case or not. I still think that despite his shortcomings, he is currently the Reds' 3rd best option at SP and it is unlikely that he won't be one of our best five when we start 2008.

HokieRed
09-21-2007, 01:00 PM
Last night's outing by Bailey change anybody's thinking on this thread? Actually maybe one should think about Shearn's last time out too.

AmarilloRed
09-21-2007, 01:31 PM
Here is what I would like to see: 1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. FA Pitcher
4. Bailey
5. Belisle

Here is what we might end up seeing 1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Bailey
4. Belisle
5. Shearn

That was my original rotation. I would still like to see the Reds pick up another starting pitcher for now, but I am ok with the second group. The third spot may be too high for Bailey right now, but it seems best for the short term.

RedsMightWin
09-26-2007, 12:41 AM
Homer with another solid outing. Throwing harder than he was before and showing much more command, and when his command was off it was balls way out of the zone and not "mistakes pitches".

I still think we need to make a run at Schilling and try to aquire Willis. I am not sure how much Marlins would ask for in return of 1 year of Willis but it sure would give me a woody if we aquired the guy.

Another option would be Joe Blanton though I think he would take much more in return to get.

AmarilloRed
09-26-2007, 01:27 AM
Marlins will test value for Willis

Tuesday, Sep 25, 2007 1:25 pm EDT
Dontrelle Willis


The Florida Marlins are expected to test the trade value in the coming offseason for Dontrelle Willis.

The team will have to decide whether to pay at least $9 million for Willis or dangle him to a team willing to part with young pitchers or a catcher.

Source: Palm Beach Post

So would you pay 9 million plus some young pitchers to get Willis? Here are his numbers this year: 9-15, 5.32, 137 K, 79 walks, 1.62 WHIP, 33 starts, 194 2/3 IP, and a .301 Batting Average Allowed. We could probably get that from Belisle next year and save 9 million and some pitchers.

RedsMightWin
09-26-2007, 07:20 AM
Marlins will test value for Willis

Tuesday, Sep 25, 2007 1:25 pm EDT
Dontrelle Willis


The Florida Marlins are expected to test the trade value in the coming offseason for Dontrelle Willis.

The team will have to decide whether to pay at least $9 million for Willis or dangle him to a team willing to part with young pitchers or a catcher.

Source: Palm Beach Post

So would you pay 9 million plus some young pitchers to get Willis? Here are his numbers this year: 9-15, 5.32, 137 K, 79 walks, 1.62 WHIP, 33 starts, 194 2/3 IP, and a .301 Batting Average Allowed. We could probably get that from Belisle next year and save 9 million and some pitchers.

his numbers from this year are bad but hes 25 and has been solid every other year of his career. I can overlook this year if it means his career era including this season is 3.79

Even with the bad numbers hes shown this year he still threw another season over 200 innings. Not to mention hes a lefty.

With that being said I dont know how much I would give up in return for him. It would be worth a long look though.

RedsMightWin
09-26-2007, 07:29 AM
Year Team Lg Age Org Level W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP GB%
2000 Az Cubs Ariz 18 Chc Rk 3 1 3.86 9 1 0 0 3 0 28.0 26 15 12 0 8 22 0 0 8.36 0.00 2.57 7.07 1.21 --
2001 Boise Nwest 19 Chc A- 8 2 2.98 15 15 0 0 0 0 93.2 76 36 31 1 19 77 5 1 7.30 0.10 1.83 7.40 1.01 --
2002 Kane Cty Midw 20 Fla A 10 2 1.83 19 19 3 2 0 0 127.2 91 29 26 3 21 101 9 3 6.42 0.21 1.48 7.12 0.88 --
Jupiter FSL 20 Fla A+ 2 0 1.80 5 5 0 0 0 0 30.0 24 7 6 2 3 27 0 0 7.20 0.60 0.90 8.10 0.90 --
2003 Carolina Sou 21 Fla AA 4 0 1.49 6 6 0 0 0 0 36.1 24 6 6 2 9 32 1 5.94 0.50 2.23 7.93 0.91 --
Florida NL 21 Fla MLB log 14 6 3.30 27 27 2 2 0 0 160.2 148 61 59 13 58 142 7 1 8.29 0.73 3.25 7.95 1.28 42%
2004 Florida NL 22 Fla MLB log 10 11 4.02 32 32 2 0 0 0 197.0 210 99 88 20 61 139 2 0 9.59 0.91 2.79 6.35 1.38 40%
2005 Florida NL 23 Fla MLB log 22 10 2.63 34 34 7 5 0 0 236.1 213 79 69 11 55 170 2 1 8.11 0.42 2.09 6.47 1.13 45%
2006 Florida NL 24 Fla MLB log 12 12 3.87 34 34 4 1 0 0 223.1 234 106 96 21 83 160 6 1 9.43 0.85 3.34 6.45 1.42 45%
2007 Florida MLB 25 Fla MLB 8 15 5.27 31 31 0 0 0 182.2 224 120 107 27 74 128 6 1 11.04 1.33 3.65 6.31 1.63

Redhook
09-26-2007, 09:27 AM
That was my original rotation. I would still like to see the Reds pick up another starting pitcher for now, but I am ok with the second group. The third spot may be too high for Bailey right now, but it seems best for the short term.

I'm not ok with the second group. Here's why. There is no depth. The Reds will probably need atleast 8 starters next season. Starting the year with Belisle and Shearn in the top 5 wouldn't bode well for the entire season.

I'll actually be really happy if the Reds add one really good #3 starter via a trade. That would change a lot in the rotation. If the Reds go into next year with 7-8 decent starters they should be in could shape.

1) Harang
2) Arroyo
3) New pitcher
4) Bailey
5) Shearn
6) Belisle
7) Cueto
8) Ramirez?

One more good starter changes everything IMO. If Bailey emerges as a decent starter then this team could really take off. We'll see what happens.

AmarilloRed
09-26-2007, 02:00 PM
I didn't say I liked it, I said I was OK with it. If we can make a good trade and get a quality starter without giving up too much, then that is fine. Krivsky has been reluctant to get starting pitching in the off-season, so that is what we might see next year. In any case. I agree that we will see what happens. I do hope you are right and we can get another starter in the off-season.