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chicoruiz
09-13-2007, 08:56 AM
A poster on Sun Deck is quoting mlbtraderumors.com as saying that the Giants may trade Noah Lowry in the offseason, and that Encarnacion is one of the players they're looking at. So do you do a deal based around Encarnacion for Lowry? I'd hate to see him go, but you have to give up something to get something, and with Keppinger and maybe Cantu or Freel it would seem that we'd be covered at 3b. Thoughts?

flyer85
09-13-2007, 09:35 AM
for Lowry, no way. He doesn't miss nearly enough bats his K/BB ratio is 1.0. He would be going from an extreme pitchers park to a HR friendly park. The transition would likely not go well.

His K/BB rate of 2.5 from 2005 has disappeared, he is not the same pitcher is unlikely to have success going forward unless he pitches half his games in SF.

lollipopcurve
09-13-2007, 09:41 AM
I agree -- Lowry seems to be going downhill. K:BB ratio is 1:1, amd after striking out 170+ in 05, he won't get to 100 this year. Having a terrible September, too. He's arb-eligible now, so he's due a big raise. I like the matchup with Minnesota (Slowey, Baker, et al) a lot better.

flyer85
09-13-2007, 09:48 AM
Hopefully the Reds have suffered through the rough times with a young EE, he looks to me like he is a good bet for a breakout in 2008. If the Reds get give him up it had better be for someone young and cheap.

Slowey(with his 16HR in 48IP) and less than electric stuff does not interest me all that much. Trade 'em Keppinger. :D

oneupper
09-13-2007, 09:52 AM
Lowry was shut down with elbow strain.

I can see WK making this deal. He'd see it as WMP/BA redux.

Lowry is under contract through 2009 with an option for 2010 at a reasonable price (another similarity),

I'll agree that I don't like it, but there may not be any better offers of pitching available. The worst thing about it, IMO, is that it enables WK to KEEP Juan Castro.

flyer85
09-13-2007, 09:56 AM
Id rather have Sanchez than Lowry.

Johnny Footstool
09-13-2007, 10:27 AM
Id rather have Sanchez than Lowry.

I'd rather have a dirty Sanchez than Lowry.

Falls City Beer
09-13-2007, 10:45 AM
If Lowry's healthy, absolutely. If not, no.

Krusty
09-13-2007, 10:47 AM
Encarncion still has a tremendous upside and could easily hit 25 home runs next season. What people forget that once he got out of Narron's doghouse (when Narron was fired), his stats started to improve.

There is no doubt that the Reds need to improve their pitching via the trade market especially with the free agent market for pitchers pretty bland. But you have to unload salary in order to create payroll space to get quality pitching. Trading Encarncion doesn't accomplish that.

I would trade either Griffey or Dunn first before thinking about dealing Encarncion for pitching.

mbgrayson
09-13-2007, 10:58 AM
Well, looking at MLB Trade Rumors (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/)web site, this 'rumor' looks like nothing more than the author's speculation and wishes. Here is the exact quote:


Lowry should've been traded at the deadline. I know McCovey Chronicles has been pushing for this for a while. Lowry had a 3.92 ERA this year despite a ton of baserunners. He's doing an OK job trying to become a groundball/contact pitcher. He's 27 and signed reasonably through 2010. The problem is that an elbow strain may cause other GMs to view him as damaged goods. That's a shame, because he might've extracted one or two very good and much-needed position players given the terrible free agent market. Could Garrett Atkins, Brent Lillibridge, Edwin Encarnacion, Steven Pearce, Conor Jackson, or Jeff Clement be acquired? If Lowry can re-establish his health, that's the route I attempt.

SteelSD
09-13-2007, 11:00 AM
Noah Lowry 3-Year Splits (2004-2006):

Home: 272.0 IP- 23 HR, 3.38 ERA
Away: 184.0 IP- 29 HR, 5.23 ERA

It's better this year, but teams like the Reds need to be leery of pitchers who put up those kind of splits while playing in a park that suppresses Home Runs.

NJReds
09-13-2007, 11:07 AM
The Giants could probably get Clement for him. I've read that the Mariners aren't so high on him. Lowry would probably do well in Safeco.

I've also heard the Giants will have interest in ARod if he opts out of his contract. They'll start with the money saved from letting Bonds go.

flyer85
09-13-2007, 11:07 AM
Well, looking at MLB Trade Rumors (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/)web site, this 'rumor' looks like nothing more than the author's speculation and wishes. that's because the SF team has ZERO offensive talent not named Bonds. The offense is ready to fall off the planet with the end of the flaxseed era.

Heath
09-13-2007, 02:37 PM
I think Lowry needs a big ball park to survive.

Frisco, Colorado, San Diego, Seattle, Grand Canyon, & Yellowstone come to mind.

RedLegSuperStar
09-13-2007, 03:13 PM
I don't know if I'd give up Encarnacion to get Lowry. Since being recalled from Louisville; Edwin has been really providing some offense.

.309 AVG (106 - 343) 12 HR 54 RBI 49 R (May 22nd - September 12)

Granted Lowry would be a upgrade to those not named Harang and Arroyo and like chicoruiz said, "sometimes you have to give up something, to get something." It's a tough call especially when that "something" is a huge need for this team.

As much as I'd love to obtain a young starting pitcher like Lowry I personally wouldn't do the move because I think this team needs to build around Encarnacion, Hamilton, Votto, Bailey, Cueto, Bruce, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo.

redsrule2500
09-13-2007, 06:50 PM
If Lowry's healthy, absolutely. If not, no.

If you have to question his health, I wouldn't do it for anyone.

KronoRed
09-13-2007, 06:55 PM
No thanks on Lowry

RedsManRick
09-13-2007, 07:00 PM
Low K, High BB, flyball pitcher with injury concerns? Sign me up!

Falls City Beer
09-13-2007, 07:14 PM
Yeah, the injury risk probably is too great. I'd look elsewhere.

KoryMac5
09-13-2007, 07:16 PM
Seems like a lot of speculation on Mlbtraderumors.com. They have some real juicy rumors from time to time but on this one seems like they were throwing out names and hoping one sticks.

Rojo
09-13-2007, 08:37 PM
I don't know if Lowry's the right pitcher but this is the right kind of trade. EdE stands poised to break out but you've got some decent fill-in candidates at third and a hole in the middle of the rotation.

RedEye
09-15-2007, 03:26 PM
There are some #3 type pitchers I'd trade EdE for. Lowry isn't one of them.

membengal
09-22-2007, 12:41 PM
EE's stats to the moment:

.294 avg/.358 OBP/ 15 hr/ 74 rbi / 8 sb (only 1 cs) /64 R /.797 OPS

So, um, that's really been quite a decent season afterall. And then some. The OPS is a bit low, but his power is surging late and he was so bad early that there will be no real way to save it. But the rest of it? Really, really, really solid. Add in that his defense has matured (as most of us figured it would) as his mistakes have dwindled while his range has remained fantastic, and the Reds have a really solid 3B who is still entering his prime.

All of which is to say, IF they were to trade him, it better be for a legitimate starter who could be plugged in behind Harang for 2008. Someone in the Matt Garza class of starter. Anything less will be under-selling a real asset. And then some.

WVRedsFan
09-22-2007, 12:43 PM
Who's going to play third? That's the question. It would be best to move one or more outfielders than to move Edwin.

membengal
09-22-2007, 12:47 PM
There appears to be some thought on the board that Keppinger could play it. And he likely could. But there would be fall-off from EE to him, and that's why any starter coming back for EE better be in the Garza class...

TOBTTReds
09-22-2007, 12:52 PM
Since the break:

.323/.364/.495/.859 I take that!

He's having a great year, as well as with the glove. I don't trade him, we need RH bats, unless it is for something good. I don't understand his lack of hitting vs. LH right now though. Hopefully that gets better.

LoganBuck
09-22-2007, 03:27 PM
Since the break:

.323/.364/.495/.859 I take that!

He's having a great year, as well as with the glove. I don't trade him, we need RH bats, unless it is for something good. I don't understand his lack of hitting vs. LH right now though. Hopefully that gets better.

I think the Reds have to trade Griffey, and sign Dunn to a LTC. I have been pondering this over and over. I think Griffey will be attractive to a win now team like Atlanta, or Boston. I would even pay a decent portion of his salary to get the right prospect back. Trading EdE would be be foolish, he is bouncing back nicely and I still see him as a potential Aramis Ramirez clone. Ramirez had similar struggles and had one stint back in AAA as well. Check it out.

Ramirez http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ramirar01.shtml
Edwin http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/encared01.shtml

Check out Edwin's comps.

TOBTTReds
09-22-2007, 07:01 PM
I think the Reds have to trade Griffey, and sign Dunn to a LTC. I have been pondering this over and over. I think Griffey will be attractive to a win now team like Atlanta, or Boston. I would even pay a decent portion of his salary to get the right prospect back. Trading EdE would be be foolish, he is bouncing back nicely and I still see him as a potential Aramis Ramirez clone. Ramirez had similar struggles and had one stint back in AAA as well. Check it out.

Ramirez http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ramirar01.shtml
Edwin http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/encared01.shtml

Check out Edwin's comps.

I'm with you here. We just need Griffey to get healthy, hit 600, then deal him. That will give Brucer some more time in AAA, and sell tickets while Jr. chases a major milestone.

Raisor
09-22-2007, 07:24 PM
Personally, I think Eddie is having as good or better year then Phillips, especially when you take Phillips' gidp into consideration.

Phillips has 30 OPS points on Eddie, but with the GIDPs their RC numbers are essentially the same. Phillips 0.14 RC per PA vs 0.14 RC per PA for Eddie.

Everyone gives Phillips big props, but EddieE deserves the same.

BoydsOfSummer
09-22-2007, 07:28 PM
An 800ish OPS and killer range at 3b? Gimme, gimme...

KronoRed
09-23-2007, 12:57 AM
Personally, I think Eddie is having as good or better year then Phillips, especially when you take Phillips' gidp into consideration.

Phillips has 30 OPS points on Eddie, but with the GIDPs their RC numbers are essentially the same. Phillips 0.14 RC per PA vs 0.14 RC per PA for Eddie.

Everyone gives Phillips big props, but EddieE deserves the same.

Everyone loves stolen bases.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 01:01 AM
Everyone loves stolen bases.

And a big smile and a management team who plays you every day regardless of the mistakes you make.

Spitball
09-23-2007, 01:11 AM
There appears to be some thought on the board that Keppinger could play it. And he likely could. But there would be fall-off from EE to him...

Keppinger doesn't have near that first step range we see in Encarnacion, especially to the glove side. Unless the throws become a Steve Sax mental block, we should see an improvement from EE in that area of weakness.

pedro
09-23-2007, 01:26 AM
Personally, I think Eddie is having as good or better year then Phillips, especially when you take Phillips' gidp into consideration.

Phillips has 30 OPS points on Eddie, but with the GIDPs their RC numbers are essentially the same. Phillips 0.14 RC per PA vs 0.14 RC per PA for Eddie.

Everyone gives Phillips big props, but EddieE deserves the same.

I just don't agree with that. I'll give EE credit for pulling his season out of the crapper but his wild inconsistency offensively and defensively during the first half of the season were a major component of the Reds downfall this year, RC/AB notwithstanding.

Hopefully EE shows up for the entire season next year. The Reds really need him.

Aronchis
09-23-2007, 02:19 AM
EE had a typical "Sophie" slump in terms of full seasons of starting.

I feel his junior campaign will be a smashing success with the bat and one of progression with the glove.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 02:49 AM
EE had a typical "Sophie" slump in terms of full seasons of starting.

I feel his junior campaign will be a smashing success with the bat and one of progression with the glove.

So do I and his inconsistency had a lot more to do with how he was handled rather than any lack of showing up.

Once Pete started playing him every day, he was the Edwin we thought he was. Kudos to Macklanin and boos to Narron.

Topcat
09-23-2007, 07:27 AM
I think the Reds have to trade Griffey, and sign Dunn to a LTC. I have been pondering this over and over. I think Griffey will be attractive to a win now team like Atlanta, or Boston. I would even pay a decent portion of his salary to get the right prospect back. Trading EdE would be be foolish, he is bouncing back nicely and I still see him as a potential Aramis Ramirez clone. Ramirez had similar struggles and had one stint back in AAA as well. Check it out.

Ramirez http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ramirar01.shtml
Edwin http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/encared01.shtml

Check out Edwin's comps.

Seldom do this but Maybe an outside shot at Jon Lester? Probably not but I would more than be happy with Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen for Griffey and szend them 65 percent of his salary:beerme:

Raisor
09-23-2007, 07:42 AM
I just don't agree with that. I'll give EE credit for pulling his season out of the crapper but his wild inconsistency offensively and defensively during the first half of the season were a major component of the Reds downfall this year, RC/AB notwithstanding.

.

BTW, I was giving Phillips an edge by using RC/TPA. When you use RC/27, Eddie is ahead.

Those GIDPs are killing Phillips.

Ltlabner
09-23-2007, 08:36 AM
So do I and his inconsistency had a lot more to do with how he was handled rather than any lack of showing up.

Despite being handed the starting 3B role, getting 476 at-bats and sticking with him through a putrid start to the season as long as he could it's all Narrons fault?

Edwin's had an impressive 2nd half no doubt. But the idea that Edwin got off to a horrable start because Narron is a big meanie is a RZ myth that just refuses to die.

mth123
09-23-2007, 09:17 AM
Despite being handed the starting 3B role, getting 476 at-bats and sticking with him through a putrid start to the season as long as he could it's all Narrons fault?

Edwin's had an impressive 2nd half no doubt. But the idea that Edwin got off to a horrable start because Narron is a big meanie is a RZ myth that just refuses to die.

Or maybe there is something to it. A lot of guys are doing better since Narron left. I don't think "big meanie" is the right term, but he wasn't getting inspired play out of the team as a whole. He also mishandled Arroyo and abused most of his other starters. He exacerbated his bullpen problems with poor usage patterns (long periods of inactivity for some and periods of overwork for others at times), He made curious moves with pinch hitters, bunts and other strategy. And he at least gave the appearance of not applying equal treatment of his players in some areas.

Ultimately, I agree that Edwin is resposnsible for his own play and should not be impacted by a personality conflict with the manager (if there even was one). I do believe that Edwin's mind was not right and it affected his on field performance. Whether it was Narron's fault or not can be debated. I certainly see justification in some of the things Narron did concerning Edwin, but Edwin seemed to get a new lease on life with the change and responded accordingly. Or maybe its just coincidental timing of a hot streak, but since the entire team improved it seems like a pretty big coincidence IMO.

I think the thing we tend to forget (at least I do) is that even seasoned vets at the age of 30 are still kids (usually with big and sometimes fragile egos) for the most part and having a manager who knows how to deal with personalities like that is important IMO. Also, people in general start accumulating resentment over things as time goes on (familiarity breeds contempt) and sometimes the relationship between Manager/Coach and team simply wears out and change is needed. That may not necessarily be a reflection of the manager himself. IMO however, when a Manager frequently makes curious in game moves, the team can see it and could start to resent it as well. Competitive kids start blaming the manager for losses (at least internally if not in quotes). I have to wonder if the team was starting to resent Narron for some of his moves (both in game and in other areas) and were blaming him (thereby absolving themsleves) for the team's poor play. It could be why Narron's relationship with this team seemed to wear out so quickly.

Of course I could be way off too.

Ltlabner
09-23-2007, 09:29 AM
Of course I could be way off too.

No, I don't think you are far from the truth. That's a very reasoned and well stated opinion.

Now, are they playing better because Narron's gone? Because PMac is so much better? Bacause of a natural return to the mean?

I don't have a good answer for that. But I think the case you make is a good one for how Narron might have effected the overall team performance especially towards the end. It had to be misserable in the clubhouse for the last few weeks.

redsmetz
09-23-2007, 10:06 AM
I think the thing we tend to forget (at least I do) is that even seasoned vets at the age of 30 are still kids (usually with big and sometimes fragile egos) for the most part and having a manager who knows how to deal with personalities like that is important IMO. Also, people in general start accumulating resentment over things as time goes on (familiarity breeds contempt) and sometimes the relationship between Manager/Coach and team simply wears out and change is needed. That may not necessarily be a reflection of the manager himself. IMO however, when a Manager frequently makes curious in game moves, the team can see it and could start to resent it as well. Competitive kids start blaming the manager for losses (at least internally if not in quotes). I have to wonder if the team was starting to resent Narron for some of his moves (both in game and in other areas) and were blaming him (thereby absolving themsleves) for the team's poor play. It could be why Narron's relationship with this team seemed to wear out so quickly.

I'm not sure if it's because they're "kids" (although the older I get, the more that's true; even for aging vets!). If you think about it, if you have a basically set roster, you essential have about 13 players who more or less have set playing time (8 starting position players; five man rotation - 14 if you include a named closer). That leaves 11-12 players still needing playing time.

The talent in a manager comes from knowing how to balance the entire roster giving rest where it's needed, playing time to bench players, etc. I think, thus far, one of Mackanin's talents seems to be knowing how to juggle that. He says he has a philosophy that bench players need some playing time to stay sharp. It's a delicate balance.

It was surprising to me when I heard the low number of games the Big Red Machine actually started together in the 75-76 seasons. We all remember those bench players - Dan Driessen, Darryl Chaney, Doug Flynn, Merv Rettemund, Bill Plummer, etc. Likewise, the pitching staff was rather pedestrian overall, but they won a lot of games.

I see in retrospect what many here on RZ were saying about Jerry Narron's inability to manage a roster. I think I see too that Pete Mackanin is dramatically different.

KronoRed
09-23-2007, 02:45 PM
Those GIDPs are killing Phillips.

BF quote time..
"At least he MAKES CONTACT" ;)

pedro
09-23-2007, 03:11 PM
BTW, I was giving Phillips an edge by using RC/TPA. When you use RC/27, Eddie is ahead.

Those GIDPs are killing Phillips.

Perhaps, but taking in the entire season and both offense and defense it's ludicrous IMO to even suggest that EE's been more valuable to the Reds than Phillips this year.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 03:17 PM
No, I don't think you are far from the truth. That's a very reasoned and well stated opinion.

Now, are they playing better because Narron's gone? Because PMac is so much better? Bacause of a natural return to the mean?

I don't have a good answer for that. But I think the case you make is a good one for how Narron might have effected the overall team performance especially towards the end. It had to be misserable in the clubhouse for the last few weeks.

Absolutely. The part about the clubhouse. And you and I both know, Abner that when things are going down the drain, it 's easy to point fingers. I imagine the players were doing that.

I would imagine a lot of the change in attitude is the fresh start under Pete and the fact that they had success from the beginning. That always changes attitudes. Mackanin manages his pitching better (notice I said better and not well), especially the bullpen in most cases.

Cooper
09-23-2007, 08:43 PM
I definitely feel the GiDP are part of their skill sets. BP had the same rate of GiDP's last year and typically the players who lead the league in GiDP's are Right handed hitters who hit a lot of hard ground balls.....players who have a high ground ball/fly ball ratio. I'm guessing those Gidp's for Phillips are not going away.

As for Eddy E. it appears he was slightly lucky, in that, he was able to avoid the DP probably more than he should have....he prolly should have 10-12.

As for the difference in their value...heck yeah it makes a difference. It's silly to ignore and look the other way when trying to evaluate their worth. It's a skill....that (like any other stat) may be effected by some luck and circumstance...but it's there and it's part of the overall package. Hitting wise...EE may have had a slightly better year....at the very least it's closer than most think.

Benihana
09-26-2007, 05:03 PM
EE had a typical "Sophie" slump in terms of full seasons of starting.

I feel his junior campaign will be a smashing success with the bat and one of progression with the glove.

Agree completely. DO NOT trade Edwin Encarnacion, he's about to blow up big time.

RedLegSuperStar
09-27-2007, 12:00 PM
I was just looking at the Indians box-score and thought of this:

Edwin Encarnacion to the Indians
Cliff Lee and Andy Marte to the Reds

Reds could use Marte and Keppinger at 3rd and have get a #4 starter out of it. Lee has had a down year and to boot was moved to the pen. Lifetime he is 54-36 w/ 4.65 ERA with the ability to go 200 innings and has decent stikeout to walk ratio. With the move for the Indians they get a 3rd baseman who since his recall has been everything the Reds had hoped with hitting, power, and defense. The Indians then could move Blake back to the outfield as Nixon may or may not return and Lofton may retire. Also adds depth to their bench with Michaels moving to into the 4th OF roll.

Falls City Beer
09-27-2007, 12:24 PM
No Cliff Lee!!!

He's more than a little bit likely to be atrocious next season, but because he's a "name," Wayne would give him as many starts to be awful as he could. Don't tempt fate with a guy like Cliff Lee.

Bill
09-27-2007, 02:49 PM
I'm not a big Marte fan though the Indians will probably give him another shot next season as he is out of options. He could hit .250 20 hr (probably his ceiling) and hold the position until Wes Hodges or Matt Whitney are ready sometime in 2009.

Lee is not that bad, rushing back from an early injury seemed to set him back, but he does have a couple years left on his deal and his k's have been dropping each year. I think the guys to target from the tribe to help the Reds would be Shoppach (whom is blocked by Martinez but is an everyday catcher imo. Strong defensive catcher with good power, walk rate and arm. I watched him gun down two Mariners at 3rd trying to steal in the 1st inning last night), Sowers (sophomore blues, lost confidence- shut down the Mariners in 1st game back, looked like a #3 at least), Gutierrez for CF (nice arm, speed, quick bat). Adam Miller is their best pitching prospect/power arm but he may have elbow concerns, Lofgren is a nice power pitcher in AA.

The tribe's needs though are more power hitting coner OF and a closer.

Heath
09-27-2007, 02:52 PM
Mark me down in the "No Cliff Lee Camp".

That guy's tempting fate.

I don't get Andy Marte. This guy is supposed to be the next Harmon Killebrew and he's Kelly Paris-ing it. What is up with this kid?

15fan
09-27-2007, 03:21 PM
EE's 2007 Game Log (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5904)

In his first 116 ABs, he had a total of 4 extra base hits (2 doubles, a triple and a HR).

He's rebounded nicely.

But holy cow, was that a horrific start to the year.

The Reds have 2 very good, young, cheap IFs with nice ceilings in EE and Phillips.

If the Reds are at all interested in trading for better pitching, it's most likely going to be one of those two guys that will have to go. The market for each of them is much bigger than any other market in which the Reds could operate.

(Outside of trading Harang or Arroyo.)

Kind of like when the Reds had Kurt Stillwell and Barry Larkin. 20 years ago, the Reds made the right choice. Will they again with EE and BP? It's quite possible that the BP or EE decision will be one of the biggest decisions the franchise makes in the next several years.

Edit:

In looking at EE's splits this year, it jumps out at me that other than Coors Field (where even I could probably OPS .800...), EE smacks the ball around the most at Busch Stadium (1.069 OPS), PNC Park (1.026 OPS) and Wrigley (.952 OPS). His home numbers are kind of pedestrian (.782 OPS).

Phillips has feasted this year at Miller (1.044) and PNC (1.015). He's also done well in places where the Reds have played a single series (Safeco, Jacobs, and Shea). BP has been slightly better at home (.822), but he's been pretty woeful at Wrigley (.655) and Minute Maid (.610). At Busch, he's solid if unspectacular (.794).