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RedsManRick
09-13-2007, 06:30 PM
2007 Reds Offense
Home: 5.26 R/G, .268/.340/.463, 41/50 SB
Road: 4.59 R/G, .266/.331/.418, 47/69 SB

2007 Reds Pitching
Home: 5.66 R/G, 4.96 ERA .272/.334/.454, .298 BABIP
Road: 5.21 R/G, 5.05 ERA, .296/.358/.464, .334 BABIP



| RS | RA
--------|-------|-------
Home | 389 | 402
--------|-------|-------
Road | 326 | 370

Some quick observations:
- Our hitting varies more than our pitching
- Our pitching has been unlucky on the road in terms of BABIP, even though the defense has been better in terms of unearned runs
- We have a much higher SB% at home.
- When you look at the table above, the are two really basic problems with us. We allow too many runs everywhere and we don't score enough runs on the road.

oneupper
09-13-2007, 06:48 PM
I don't know why SB% would be park-dependant. It probably isn't (unless there is an UMP factor).

Otherwise, you had some hitters with nasty Home/Away splits (OPS):

Hatteberg 1.007/.718
Freel .729/.563
Conine .894/.614
Ross .733/.538

BTW....none of these guys are playing much anymore...hint, hint.

Some other hitters who were better at GABP

Dunn .974/.903
Griff .947/.853
EdE .802/.756
Hamilton .989/.861

and you've had a few road warriors

Phillips .811/.850 (this was a surprise for me)
Hopper .720/.771
Gonzo .752/.851 (Ah...Pittsburgh).

Team OPS

Home .803 Away .749

oneupper
09-13-2007, 06:53 PM
I also find it interesting that our pitchers have a better ERA at home than on the road.
(yet the RPG is much higher at home...bad defense?)

RedsManRick
09-13-2007, 06:53 PM
Re: the stolen base percentage, I'm pretty sure that difference falls within the scope of random variation. That said, if there really was something to it, my guess is that it's a strategy issue, being more aggressive on the road, or something to that effect.

What's interesting in the OPS difference is that, not surprisingly, it's almost all in SLG.

oneupper
09-13-2007, 07:15 PM
Re: the stolen base percentage, I'm pretty sure that difference falls within the scope of random variation. That said, if there really was something to it, my guess is that it's a strategy issue, being more aggressive on the road, or something to that effect.

What's interesting in the OPS difference is that, not surprisingly, it's almost all in SLG.

You figure the park is going to help a lot of occasional power guys, Hatteberg would be the perfect example.

Hatte had a HUGE Home/Away split in 2006 also.
(as did Ross).

Guys like Hat/Ross/Freel have learned that they can maybe yank one out at GABP, whereas on the road, they wouldn't even try.

If you needed another reason to replace Hatteberg with Votto...there it is.


Another interesting tidbit. Dunn has 19 HRs at home this year...and 19 on the road.

RedsManRick
09-13-2007, 07:18 PM
I would be very concerned with a guy like Freel or Ross is that it adversely affects his approach. Hatteberg just alternates between himself and a park-aided self.

Rojo
09-13-2007, 09:06 PM
Our pitching has been unlucky on the road in terms of BABIP, even though the defense has been better in terms of unearned runs

Now that turf isn't an issue, I think changing parks only affects outfield defense. That may be why the big BABIP.

RedsManRick
09-14-2007, 05:43 PM
Now that turf isn't an issue, I think changing parks only affects outfield defense. That may be why the big BABIP.

I was thinking something similar. Range issues in the outfield won't show up in error totals (or unearned runs) but will definitely show up in the total runs allowed column. This this OF defense to Pecto and it gets really ugly.

Balls that would've landed a row deep at GABP -- and thus excluded from BABIP -- suddenly drop on the warning track and become doubles and triples. In the SLG and run totals it's a net positive to leave GABP, but we don't gain as much as we should.

It's an interesting thing to consider that leaving GABP makes a non-HR batted ball in the field of play against Reds pitching 10% more likely to become a hit. There might be some sample size issues, but it would be interesting to examine our RA versus LA, SD, SF, and NYM.