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camisadelgolf
09-14-2007, 06:54 AM
Any time there's a trade proposal, it's always heavily criticized. I've got thick skin, so go ahead and let 'er rip. Here goes nothing . . .

(And yes, I realize that due to Dunn's contract, this trade would most likely have to wait until June, unfortunately.)

Reds trade:
Adam Dunn
Scott Hatteberg
Edwin Encarnacion
Alex Gonzalez

Giants trade:
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
Chad Santos
Craig Whitaker

The Reds' resulting roster:

2.525 C David Ross
1.325 C Javier Valentin
0.400 1B Joey Votto
?1.300 1B Jorge Cantu
?3.800 2B Brandon Phillips
0.400 IF Pedro Lopez
3.000 3B Ryan Freel
0.975 IF Juan Castro
0.400 SS Jeff Keppinger
0.400 LF Josh Hamilton
0.400 CF Norris Hopper
12.500 RF Ken Griffey, Jr.
0.400 OF Chris Dickerson

6.750 SP Aaron Harang
0.700 SP Matt Cain
6.450 SP Bronson Arroyo
?1.400 SP Matt Belisle
0.400 SP Homer Bailey

2.750 CL David Weathers
0.400 RP Jared Burton
0.400 RP Bill Bray
0.400 RP Jonathan Sanchez
3.000 RP Mike Stanton
0.400 RP Gary Majewski
0.925 RP Todd Coffey
------------------------------
51.800
? = estimate due to arbitration eligibility
Why this trade makes sense for the Giants:
1B Ryan Klesko, SS Omar Vizquel, 3B Pedro Feliz, and LF Barry Bonds all have expiring contracts. That means they'll need to re-sign or replace half their starting lineup by next year. Seeing as how they're the oldest team in MLB, they probably wouldn't mind getting younger by adding Dunn and Encarnacion. Also, starting pitching is arguably their biggest strength. They'd still have Zito, Lowry, and Lincecum, which is a formidable one-through-three part of the rotation.

Why this trade makes sense for the Reds:
Matt Cain would be considered an ace in many starting rotations, and as always, the Reds are in need of pitching. Jonathan Sanchez is a young, left-handed reliever who can strike out guys fairly often. He also has some potential as a starter. Craig Whitaker is a former first round pick who seems to be a bust. He struggles with control and staying healthy, but if the Reds can find a way to keep him on the field and in the strike zone, he might become very effective. Chad Santos doesn't project to be more than a backup first baseman, but if Joey Votto becomes injured, he could be a good guy to have around. Even if Votto stays healthy, he would be some needed organizational filler.

The Reds would no doubt be losing a good deal of offense in this trade, but with the likes of Freel, Keppinger, and Hopper handy, it's still a solid offense, in my opinion. Also, with Dunn gone, the starting lineup would become less left-handed and offer a lot more versatility in every facet of the game.

Another thing worth noting is that the money saved (nearly $20M) could be used to go after a centerfielder (Torri Hunter, Corey Patterson, Aaron Rowand, etc.), an infielder (David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, Mike Lowell, etc.), and/or relief help (Francisco Cordero, Octavio Dotel, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Linebrink, Kerry Wood, etc.). Okay, now it's your turn to tell me why I'm crazy and/or an idiot. What do you all think?

camisadelgolf
09-14-2007, 06:56 AM
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Matt-Cain.shtml
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Jonathan-Sanchez.shtml
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Chad-Santos.shtml
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/W/Craig-Whitaker-1.shtml

jojo
09-14-2007, 07:03 AM
Incoming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All kidding aside, I'm not sure how easy it would be to pry three arms with high upsides in sum from the league let alone from a single organisation. Also, wouldn't left field be really crowded for the Giants if this trade went through?

cincrazy
09-14-2007, 07:22 AM
I can't see a circumstance where we could ever trade any of our player's for a pitcher with the upside of Matt Cain. We could sign Dunn to a long term contract right this second, then tell the Giants "Look, if you take him in this deal, we'll pay every penny of his contract, you've got him for free!!!" and they still wouldn't do it in my opinion. Potential aces just aren't given up in today's market.

RedLegSuperStar
09-14-2007, 09:09 AM
Potential aces just aren't given up in today's market.

I'm not knocking you in any way..

Brad Penny was offered for Adam Dunn last offseason.. Roy Oswalt, Dontrell Willis, Erik Bedard, Joe Blanton, and some Bronson Arroyo guy.. were rumored in one trade rumor or another. Now granted those are rumors.. but don't tell me a team won't trade a "potential" ace for a need.

Cain lifetime is 22-27 w/ 3.79 ERA. In his defense I don't think the Giants score enough runs when he pitches.. which leaves Cain to rely on his strikeouts. Lifetime his opponent batting average is .222.

Now back to what you said that aces are given up in todays market. Before last year Oliver Perez was the Pirates ace.. he fell off the face of the Earth so to speak last year and was sent down and then thrown in a deal with the Mets. Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson were dealt for prospects before there walk year. As long as there is two sides that come to an agreement; teams will deal whomever.

PuffyPig
09-14-2007, 09:33 AM
I can't see a circumstance where we could ever trade any of our player's for a pitcher with the upside of Matt Cain. We could sign Dunn to a long term contract right this second, then tell the Giants "Look, if you take him in this deal, we'll pay every penny of his contract, you've got him for free!!!" and they still wouldn't do it in my opinion. Potential aces just aren't given up in today's market.


A prepaid Dunn would certainly get you a Cain.

RedsManRick
09-14-2007, 09:34 AM
I'd love to get Matt Cain, but Hopper, Keppinger, and Freel in the everyday lineup scares the crap out of me.

Kc61
09-14-2007, 09:37 AM
I'd love to get Matt Cain, but Hopper, Keppinger, and Freel in the everyday lineup scares the crap out of me.

Not being critical, but the Reds pitching staff scares the . . . out of me.

flyer85
09-14-2007, 09:41 AM
those kind of trades don't happen in June (or later in the season). In addition, Gonzo and Hatty have no real value.

RedsManRick
09-14-2007, 10:36 AM
Not being critical, but the Reds pitching staff scares the . . . out of me.

A trade like that would simply make hitting our glaring weakness instead of pitching. Preventing 100 runs doesn't really help if you have to score 100 fewer runs to do it.

I know you have to give up value to get value, but I'm just not sure I'd want to do it all in 1 big step like this.

Johnny Footstool
09-14-2007, 11:08 AM
I'm all in favor of the Reds acquiring a guy named Whitaker.

Krusty
09-14-2007, 11:19 AM
I could see a Dunn for Cain deal happening and here is why......

The Giants are looking to get younger next season and most likely Bonds is out of there. They need a big offensive bat to replace him and Dunn could be that guy. Of course the Reds would have to give the Giants a window so they could see if they could sign Dunn to a contract extension.

The Reds would get a solid three in their rotation with Harang, Arroyo and Cain. Add Bailey as the fourth starter and this could be a solid starting rotation. With Josh Hamilton's numerous injuries, don't you think he would be better off in LF than CF? You would still have Freel and Hopper to handle the CF chores plus you need one of these two players at the leadoff spot. Griffey would still be in RF but we know he is just keeping that spot warm for Jay Bruce.

So I guess you could expand the deal but one that involves Cain and Dunn does make sense for both clubs.

RedsManRick
09-14-2007, 11:31 AM
The only problem with that Krusty is

1.) Dunn would have to agree to the trade given his full no trade until June 15th -- and why would he want to spend 1 year on a crappy team in a pitcher's park before FA?
2.) Why would the Giants trade 4 years of Matt Cain for 1 year of Dunn?

Sure, I'd do a straight up Dunn/Cain deal in heartbeat, but I think it would have to be more like Dunn & (non-Bailey/Cueto pitching prospect).

camisadelgolf
09-14-2007, 11:51 AM
A trade like that would simply make hitting our glaring weakness instead of pitching. Preventing 100 runs doesn't really help if you have to score 100 fewer runs to do it.

I know you have to give up value to get value, but I'm just not sure I'd want to do it all in 1 big step like this.

I agree that offense could become a weakness, but I think hitting is much easier to obtain than pitching (especially in free agency). With that said, the $15M-$20M saved in the deal could be used for acquiring a couple bats and a reliever.

indy_dave00
09-14-2007, 12:12 PM
If Dunn is traded -Norris Hopper is not a reg in the outfield Jay Bruce is. Why would you start a 29 year old , journeyman singles hitter over a 21 year old Bruce? Jay gets an everyday job until he proves he can't handle it. Personally I think he would prove he is ready.

In addition Bruce even at 6'2 218 is a better outfielder than Hopper with a far superior arm.

jojo
09-14-2007, 12:49 PM
The only problem with that Krusty is

1.) Dunn would have to agree to the trade given his full no trade until June 15th -- and why would he want to spend 1 year on a crappy team in a pitcher's park before FA?
2.) Why would the Giants trade 4 years of Matt Cain for 1 year of Dunn?

Sure, I'd do a straight up Dunn/Cain deal in heartbeat, but I think it would have to be more like Dunn & (non-Bailey/Cueto pitching prospect).

Dunn doesn't like the west coast potentially making a trade to a team there less likely.

flyer85
09-14-2007, 12:51 PM
Dunn doesn't like the west coast potentially making a trade to a team there less likely.I am going with my prediction that Dunn will end up a Ranger.

PuffyPig
09-14-2007, 01:25 PM
those kind of trades don't happen in June (or later in the season). In addition, Gonzo and Hatty have no real value.

I disagree about Gonzo. You have a SS with an OPS about 20 points short of Phillips and who plays a credible SS with a very reasonable contract.

With virtually no SS availbale next year in FA, Gonzalez would have pretty good trade value.

And his hitting is not a creature of GABP. His OPS on the road is actually better by about 100 points.

Hatteberg has trade value as a .868 hitting firstbaseman/DH/PH, but it wouldn't be excessive. You could like get a fairly decent (not primo) propsect for him.

flyer85
09-14-2007, 01:34 PM
You could like get a fairly decent (not primo) propsect for him.If that is true then WK missed likely missed the boat.

Krusty
09-14-2007, 01:34 PM
While Dunn might be the name that you would think that would come up in trade talks for a young, starting pitcher....if I'm Krivsky I would be shopping Hamilton in a possible deal for Matt Cain.

Hamilton shows flashes of brillance when it comes to a hitter but just like in the Tampa Bay system, injuries have prevented him from being an everyday player. And if you're the Reds you have to wonder if injuries will prevent Hamilton from reaching his full potential.

Now you deal Hamilton for Cain (might have to spice it up), extend Dunn for an additional three years on top of the option year, and build this team around Harang, Arroyo, Cain, Dunn, Votto and Bruce....just maybe this team will finish over .500 and try to right this ship.

puca
09-14-2007, 01:40 PM
I'm just wondering, not avocating anything here. And I appologize if this has been brought up before.


When do the Reds have to pick up/decline Dunn's option?

If it is sometime after the season, could Dunn be traded along with his option before the option deadline? Or does his contract prevent this from happening (ie: the option would go away if he is traded)?

puca
09-14-2007, 01:44 PM
While Dunn might be the name that you would think that would come up in trade talks for a young, starting pitcher....if I'm Krivsky I would be shopping Hamilton in a possible deal for Matt Cain.

Hamilton shows flashes of brillance when it comes to a hitter but just like in the Tampa Bay system, injuries have prevented him from being an everyday player. And if you're the Reds you have to wonder if injuries will prevent Hamilton from reaching his full potential.

Now you deal Hamilton for Cain (might have to spice it up), extend Dunn for an additional three years on top of the option year, and build this team around Harang, Arroyo, Cain, Dunn, Votto and Bruce....just maybe this team will finish over .500 and try to right this ship.


I like the idea, but I really doubt any teams will be willing to take such a big risk, such as trading a top pitching prospect in a deal centered around Josh. If Josh stays clean and healthy for a few years, then maybe he becomes a valuable in a trade.

flyer85
09-14-2007, 01:44 PM
If it is sometime after the season, could Dunn be traded along with his option before the option deadline? Or does his contract prevent this from happening (ie: the option would go away if he is traded)?Dunn's contract voids the option if traded, and if the option is picked up Dunn gets full no-trade protection until next June.

puca
09-14-2007, 01:45 PM
Dunn's contract voids the option if traded, and if the option is picked up Dunn gets full no-trade protection until next June.

Thanks. It makes sense and is what I suspected.

Krusty
09-14-2007, 01:48 PM
I like the idea, but I really doubt any teams will be willing to take such a big risk, such as trading a top pitching prospect in a deal centered around Josh. If Josh stays clean and healthy for a few years, then maybe he becomes a valuable in a trade.

Hamilton and Keppinger for Matt Cain.

Giants get a starting outfielder and possible starting infielder in Keppinger. Reds get a frontline pitcher while still having an outfield of Dunn, Freel/Hopper and Griffey (Jay Bruce waiting in the wing).

On another note, the Reds need to upgrade their catching position offensively. Acquiring a young talent catcher with Ross as the backup should be a priority.

PuffyPig
09-14-2007, 02:08 PM
If that is true then WK missed likely missed the boat.


It was likley the same at the trade deadline as in the offseason..

That boat hasn't sailed yet.

flyer85
09-14-2007, 02:12 PM
It was likley the same at the trade deadline as in the offseason..

That boat hasn't sailed yet.I would think Hatteberg will be way down the list of potential 1st base options for teams that are looking in the off-season.

camisadelgolf
09-14-2007, 03:17 PM
The Giants just put up with Ryan Klesko at first base all year--Hatteberg should be a good upgrade (at ridiculously low cost). Edwin Encarnacion is an improvement over Pedro Feliz, and AGon is an improvement over Omar Vizquel. Adam Dunn, overall, I'd say is close to equal with Bonds. If not, I don't think he's far behind. Granted, Dunn doesn't have the same plate discipline, but at least he plays every day and would hit about the same amount of homeruns. Offensively, I think the trade would be nearly irresistible to the Giants if they had to give up someone other Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain.

jojo
09-14-2007, 03:24 PM
The Giants just put up with Ryan Klesko at first base all year--Hatteberg should be a good upgrade (at ridiculously low cost). Edwin Encarnacion is an improvement over Pedro Feliz, and AGon is an improvement over Omar Vizquel. Adam Dunn, overall, I'd say is close to equal with Bonds. If not, I don't think he's far behind. Granted, Dunn doesn't have the same plate discipline, but at least he plays every day and would hit about the same amount of homeruns. Offensively, I think the trade would be nearly irresistible to the Giants if they had to give up someone other Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain.

Hatteberg has prounounced platoon and home/away splits. His numbers benefit tremendously by playing half of his games in GABP. He's actually a perfect fit for the Reds and would likely be a train wreck for the Giants. I think they'd pass.

Also, despite the nice season that Dunn is having offensively, Bonds is still a significant upgrade over Dunn at the plate.

flyer85
09-14-2007, 03:27 PM
The Giants just put up with Ryan Klesko at first base all year--Hatteberg should be a good upgrade (at ridiculously low cost). He would but I would guess he is way down the listat 38 and a platoon player at best. His HR total would likely recede severly in PacBell, those GABP HRs would be outs.

bucksfan2
09-15-2007, 08:36 AM
Trading Hamilton would be about the dumbest thing this organization could do. Look at what he did in his first full year playing baseball in 5 years. You don't trade that after only one season.

I could see a Dunn for Cain. The Giants stink this year but it is an organization that has shown the ability to spend money. I would think if the Giants wanted Dunn they would assume the risk that he may not want to play there for the long haul. The bay area would be a great place to play baseball and I think after a season the Giants could convince Dunn of that.

Gonzo is going to have some value in this trade market. He is a good defensive SS with some pop in his bat. He also has a very good contract that will help his tradeability. You couldn't get much for him but you could get something. I guess it depends on whether the reds feel Keppinger and Lopez could fill the roll that Gonzo does.

Krusty
09-15-2007, 10:19 AM
If you're going to trade either Hamilton or Dunn, which would it be for a pitcher like Cain?

Hamilton is younger and cheaper and the Reds can control him for another five years but with the numerous injuries (he even was injured alot while in the Tampa Bay system) makes you wonder if he will be following down the same path as Eric Davis and Junior. Dunn is more expensive but you have to wonder if you deal those 100 runs scored, 40+ home runs and 100+ RBIs for a pitcher if it will come back and bite the Reds in the ass in regards to lack of offense come 2008.

Decisions, decisions.

OnBaseMachine
09-15-2007, 10:28 AM
If you're going to trade Adam Dunn then the Matt Cain's, Tim Lincecum's, and Matt Garaza are the exactly the type of pitchers you need to be targeting. And don't settle for anything less than that. Adam Dunn is a proven stud major league hitter and he should bring a huge return back to the Reds, if traded. My opinion? Lock him up longterm unless you get knocked over with a trade offer for him.

oneupper
09-15-2007, 10:39 AM
If you're going to trade Adam Dunn then the Matt Cain's, Tim Lincecum's, and Matt Garaza are the exactly the type of pitchers you need to be targeting. And don't settle for anything less than that. Adam Dunn is a proven stud major league hitter and he should bring a huge return back to the Reds, if traded. My opinion? Lock him up longterm unless you get knocked over with a trade offer for him.

Dunn's status (one year from FA) and salary (slightly below market), doesn't give him that kind of trade value.

Player value is not the same as trade value.

Locking him up (if you can), is probably your best option.

oneupper
09-15-2007, 10:40 AM
If you're going to trade either Hamilton or Dunn, which would it be for a pitcher like Cain?

.

You won't get Cain for either of those guys.

PuffyPig
09-15-2007, 11:13 AM
Hatteberg has prounounced platoon and home/away splits. His numbers benefit tremendously by playing half of his games in GABP. He's actually a perfect fit for the Reds and would likely be a train wreck for the Giants. I think they'd pass.



You could have said the exact same thing about Rich Aurillia (and many did, and maybe you too), but low and behold who signed Aurillia to a multi-year contract, giving up a draft choice in the process?

jojo
09-15-2007, 01:30 PM
You could have said the exact same thing about Rich Aurillia (and many did, and maybe you too), but low and behold who signed Aurillia to a multi-year contract, giving up a draft choice in the process?

How did that turn out for them?

KronoRed
09-15-2007, 01:33 PM
How did that turn out for them?

That's an OPS of .672 in 89 games Alex.

Patrick Bateman
09-15-2007, 01:39 PM
How did that turn out for them?

That's the point. Sabean ain't exactly the brightest.

jojo
09-15-2007, 01:41 PM
That's an OPS of .672 in 89 games Alex.

Yep... he's currently got a VORP of -4.3. In theory the Giants could've picked up roughly half a win by paying a warm body league minimum.

Highlifeman21
09-15-2007, 05:50 PM
Hamilton and Keppinger for Matt Cain.

Giants get a starting outfielder and possible starting infielder in Keppinger. Reds get a frontline pitcher while still having an outfield of Dunn, Freel/Hopper and Griffey (Jay Bruce waiting in the wing).

On another note, the Reds need to upgrade their catching position offensively. Acquiring a young talent catcher with Ross as the backup should be a priority.

Wow will the Giants laugh at that proposal. I don't think Krivsky would have the stones to actually suggest such a deal.

Also, Cain's career K:BB of under 2 concerns me. Currently he's at 1.95. When you look at his career WHIP of 1.25, based on low K totals on how Cain's getting people out, it suggests that he's very lucky. OAVG of .222 for his career also suggests that he's very lucky.

My last concern is that he averages too many pitches per start. He's averaging right around 105 pitches per start, which will take a toll on his arm.

Thankfully, he doesn't give up the longball, and he's started to turn himself into a more balanced pitcher, being almost equal in GB to FB.

Do I want Matt Cain as our #2 or #3 SP (depending on how you feel about Bronson Arroyo)? Sure.

I just don't feel that he's worth Adam Dunn, but worth more than Josh Hamilton. Therein lies the problem.