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RedlegJake
09-15-2007, 01:46 PM
Tom Shearn again. For a guy with "nothing" as many on the board have criticized, he sure keeps pitching decently. I'm a fan of his - the guy knows how to pitch using what he has - or as some might say, what he doesn't have. He's aggressive, doesn't pitch 'cute', and is making the most of his opportunity. Am I crazy enough to think he'll be as successful a second ad third time through the league? Nope. But I do think he'll be a better 5th starter option than Livingston or Dumatrait, or some dreck acquisition like Saarloos. The more he starts the more he looks like a viable option. Call it smoke, mirrors, or claim its simply his first time against teams but I can't help rooting for the guy. If Maloney, Bailey and Cueto can produce a solid starter among them then the Reds may be able to put together a decent rotation with one GOOD acquisition in the off-season.

Lambast Shearn, I enjoy it all the more every time he wins.

Patrick Bateman
09-15-2007, 02:07 PM
Right now Shearn has been getting by based on a string of luck. I`m very happy for the guy, and he is without a doubt a step up from guys like Dumatrait. But it`s going to blow up in his face eventually.

He is an an easy guy to root for, but he's no different than the Saarloos/Ramirez types. I think Livingston was the one guy from the dreck that was a cut above. Given time Shearn will fade. He's just not going to succeed with a 1.44 K/BB.

redsmetz
09-15-2007, 02:39 PM
At this point, and I think Shearn would agree, I'd be okay with him being a long guy out of the pen and a spot starter next season. I like what I've seen thus far, but am hoping to have a more solid rotation next year.

nate
09-15-2007, 03:08 PM
Right now Shearn has been getting by based on a string of luck. I`m very happy for the guy, and he is without a doubt a step up from guys like Dumatrait. But it`s going to blow up in his face eventually.

He is an an easy guy to root for, but he's no different than the Saarloos/Ramirez types. I think Livingston was the one guy from the dreck that was a cut above. Given time Shearn will fade. He's just not going to succeed with a 1.44 K/BB.

Agreed. That .228 BABIP screams of luck. I want the guy to do well, I just prefer it to be in long relief with a spot start every now and then if he's with the team next year.

Team Clark
09-15-2007, 03:12 PM
Proof positive that good things happen to good people. I like the fact that his big league checks for Sept total more than he made as a minor leaguer this year. Good for him.

RedlegJake
09-15-2007, 04:40 PM
I could agree with Shearn spot starting and in a long relief role as his probable best situation. Belisle needs to make a step forward with his consistency and take the 4th rotation spot. Either Maloney, Bailey or Cueto taking the 5th spot and the Reds need one good SP acquisition to have a competitive rotation. Actually, if Livingston can make it back and Shearn continues to pitch "lucky" (I happen to think it's more a case of simply pitching with an idea - amazing how that can get guys with less talent by when guys with a lot more 'stuff' get creamed) the Reds could have a pretty solid BP next year as well. Sometimes, when I read RedsZone I just get the feeling people expect 5 Harangs - it ain't gonna happen, and nobody has that 1 through 5 quality. The Reds need 1 more guy as good as Arroyo, preferably closer to Harang and there are youngsters and guys like Shearn and Livingston and Belisle that can make the back end of the rotation pretty solid. Healthy seasons by Bray, another good year by Weathers, continued improvement from Burton and Coutlangus and the Reds suddenly don't look so terrible.

GAC
09-15-2007, 04:44 PM
Tom Shearn again. For a guy with "nothing" as many on the board have criticized, he sure keeps pitching decently. I'm a fan of his - the guy knows how to pitch using what he has - or as some might say, what he doesn't have. He's aggressive, doesn't pitch 'cute', and is making the most of his opportunity. Am I crazy enough to think he'll be as successful a second ad third time through the league? Nope. But I do think he'll be a better 5th starter option than Livingston or Dumatrait, or some dreck acquisition like Saarloos. The more he starts the more he looks like a viable option. Call it smoke, mirrors, or claim its simply his first time against teams but I can't help rooting for the guy. If Maloney, Bailey and Cueto can produce a solid starter among them then the Reds may be able to put together a decent rotation with one GOOD acquisition in the off-season.

Lambast Shearn, I enjoy it all the more every time he wins.

I don't think people on here are lambasting him. Alot, including myself, are glad to see the guy get a shot. But they are realistically looking at the fact that the guy has spent 12 years in the minors and is a 30 yr old "rookie". There is a reason for that, and I don't believe it's because he has somehow been overlooked.

I'm glad for the guy. But the only reason he got that shot was because of the shape of our farm system pitching and there just wasn't much else to choose from. He was it.

But he has pitched admirably. Not great stuff; but has been able to locate his pitches.

mth123
09-15-2007, 05:00 PM
Shearn reminds me a lot of Steve Parris. A long time minor leaguer. Missed time with injuries. Alternated between starting and the pen and basically was thought of as a non-prospect. Eventually a chance came and he worked out. Great story, but eventually you'll get burned counting on him. He's ok as a guy for the mix. Nithing more.

Highlifeman21
09-15-2007, 05:24 PM
Tom Shearn again. For a guy with "nothing" as many on the board have criticized, he sure keeps pitching decently. I'm a fan of his - the guy knows how to pitch using what he has - or as some might say, what he doesn't have. He's aggressive, doesn't pitch 'cute', and is making the most of his opportunity. Am I crazy enough to think he'll be as successful a second ad third time through the league? Nope. But I do think he'll be a better 5th starter option than Livingston or Dumatrait, or some dreck acquisition like Saarloos. The more he starts the more he looks like a viable option. Call it smoke, mirrors, or claim its simply his first time against teams but I can't help rooting for the guy. If Maloney, Bailey and Cueto can produce a solid starter among them then the Reds may be able to put together a decent rotation with one GOOD acquisition in the off-season.

Lambast Shearn, I enjoy it all the more every time he wins.

1. There aren't good options viable to acquire via FA for this off-season.

2. The Reds aren't going to contend in 2008, regardless of one "good" acquisition.

3. Shearn is a back off the rotation (at best) or mop up guy. I'm glad he's made the most of his time and experience in Cincinnati, but he's not a good long-term answer/solution.

4. If we attempt to obtain a "good" acquisition via trade, who do we trade, and what realistic return do we get?

RedsManRick
09-15-2007, 05:57 PM
I'm sure he's a great guy, but his ERA is as low as it is because he's been pretty darn lucky. It's really that simple. He's part of the Chris Michilak crew and doesn't really do anything particularly well. He's given up a homer and half per 9, striking out few, and walking too many. Give him more innings, and the ERA will rise.

When Parris was decent, his K/9 was over 6 and he wasn't allowing many homers.

He is what he is. A guy who you keep in AAA and give a spot start too on occasion when you're in trouble. He's no part of a starting day opening rotation.

I'm thrilled for him personally that he's getting his 15 minutes. Let's just not proclaim him the next solid option.

membengal
09-15-2007, 06:17 PM
I'm standing by my prediction that he will finish his career 200-0.

And, in all seriousness, he's not the worst pitcher the Reds have ever run out there at the tail end of their rotation...

Patrick Bateman
09-15-2007, 06:24 PM
(I happen to think it's more a case of simply pitching with an idea - amazing how that can get guys with less talent by when guys with a lot more 'stuff' get creamed)

No it's really not. Please list the players that have managed to have a .230 BAPIP over an extended period.

This is not a skill by Shearn. Pure luck. It won't continue, and Shearn will struggle.

MWM
09-15-2007, 07:07 PM
Who's lambasting Shearn? I've certainly not seen it. I think the worst people have said is that he's not likely to be a long term solution for the Reds' rotation.

mth123
09-15-2007, 07:44 PM
I'm sure he's a great guy, but his ERA is as low as it is because he's been pretty darn lucky. It's really that simple. He's part of the Chris Michilak crew and doesn't really do anything particularly well. He's given up a homer and half per 9, striking out few, and walking too many. Give him more innings, and the ERA will rise.

When Parris was decent, his K/9 was over 6 and he wasn't allowing many homers.

He is what he is. A guy who you keep in AAA and give a spot start too on occasion when you're in trouble. He's no part of a starting day opening rotation.

I'm thrilled for him personally that he's getting his 15 minutes. Let's just not proclaim him the next solid option.

I pretty much agree. I will say this though, he is a better option than Phil Dumatrait and a better option than Kirk Saarloos. He's better than Chris Michalek was. Better than Sun Woo Kim, Better than Jason Johnson or Jeff Austin. Better than quite a few guys the Reds have run out there the last few years.

I don't count on him and I don't hand him a spot, but if the competition falters in Spring I have no problem sending them down and opening the year with Shearn. Of course the best option is to acquire a couple solid guys so that the "competition" isn't even necessary.

Rojo
09-15-2007, 07:46 PM
The best thing about Shearn is that he may stay the hand of those who'd rush the true propsects.

RedlegJake
09-15-2007, 11:20 PM
1. There aren't good options viable to acquire via FA for this off-season. Jason Jennings if he is healthy. Using BABIP Jennings has been decidedly unlucky this year. Peripherals are in line with his career norms. Still, he'll cost more than he'd be worth, imo.

2. The Reds aren't going to contend in 2008, regardless of one "good" acquisition. I disagree. The offense is there, with Votto and Bruce pushing to improve it. (Big IF they pick up Dunn, which I think they will). One starter acquired to go with Harang and Arroyo and Belisle, Maloney, Bailey, Shearn, Cueto, maybe a retread - that's a competitive rotation. One guy has to really step up though as I indicated in my original post.

3. Shearn is a back off the rotation (at best) or mop up guy. I'm glad he's made the most of his time and experience in Cincinnati, but he's not a good long-term answer/solution.
All I expect is back of rotation or mop up from Shearn. If the Reds need more than that from him, then, yes, it's trouble.

4. If we attempt to obtain a "good" acquisition via trade, who do we trade, and what realistic return do we get?
I'd be dangling, Kepp, EE, or Junior first perhaps with a minor league sweetener not named Bruce and I'd be targeting Lackey, Blanton, Santana, Greinke for starters. All have pitched better than their record and should be available if the package is right - without giving up Dunn or Votto or Bruce.

No it's really not. Please list the players that have managed to have a .230 BAPIP over an extended period.

AK - This is not a skill by Shearn. Pure luck. It won't continue, and Shearn will struggle.
I agree that he'll struggle from time to time. And his BABIP will rise, though there are several guys who've had careers with sub norm BABIP. Most are off speed, curveball, flyball, knuckleball types. Jim Palmer, Hoyt Wilhelm, Eddie Plank, Maddox, Spahn, and among guys pitching now Matt Cain and Troy Percival. Zito is also below the BABIP line consistently and even egregiously against right handed hitters. Curious he's league average almost exactly with lefties career wise. Robin Roberts, too, who gave up a ton of homers as well. Now - no way I'm comping Shearn with any of those guys but he's a flyball pitcher (high homers rate + fly outs which are easier to defend, another trait of guys who've beaten BABIP averages consistently), a soft tosser with a 12-6 curve that induces flies but not a lot of liners. He'll definitely rise per BABIP and his adjusted ERA is what? 5.27? Still I think he pitches gutsy and keeps his head.

Also, as per competing next year, Harang should get even better as he's currently at or near the lead in high BABIP. He's been very unlucky getting outs. That's hard to imagine with his record nevertheless. Add to that Arroyo has pitched at league BABIP average but his run support has been abysmally unlucky. Anyone know his BABIP to mate BABIP differential? Our top two should as good or better next season. Bailey shoul be getting a clue, Cueto a shot sometime next year, and Maloney, too.

Belisle has also been a bit unlucky, over the league average in BABIP, but his K rate is up, his K-9 is better than league average, WHIP is right at average, all he needs conquer is the tendency to give up too many homers and he becomes a solid starter, too. All his peripherals proclaim him better than his record - except that big, big HR allowed stat.

So, yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic. There is enough offense to work a deal for another arm, and some guys that should get better, some kids with talent, a full season ahead for Burton, a year of experience for Coot, hopefully a healthy Bray and steady Weathers.

No, I don't see a powerhouse here, but I do see a team that can compete with the Cubs, Cards, Brewers, Astros and Pirates - and win. I do see the problems with D, the lack of depth, especially on the mound, and apprehension at what WK will deal and for what this winter but hey, baseball is realistic optimism for me. Until the rose in the pond winds up a turd in the toilet bowl, I'm gonna keep seeing the rose (maybe with my nose pinched shut).

Patrick Bateman
09-16-2007, 12:27 AM
Still I think he pitches gutsy and keeps his head.


And I agree with you here. I'm not trying to crap on Shearn because as I said, he's an easy guy to root for. A guy that's worke dhis whole life to get here, and seems to get the most out of his abilities.

Highlifeman21
09-16-2007, 07:25 AM
I'd be dangling, Kepp, EE, or Junior first perhaps with a minor league sweetener not named Bruce and I'd be targeting Lackey, Blanton, Santana, Greinke for starters. All have pitched better than their record and should be available if the package is right - without giving up Dunn or Votto or Bruce.

No it's really not. Please list the players that have managed to have a .230 BAPIP over an extended period.

AK - This is not a skill by Shearn. Pure luck. It won't continue, and Shearn will struggle.
I agree that he'll struggle from time to time. And his BABIP will rise, though there are several guys who've had careers with sub norm BABIP. Most are off speed, curveball, flyball, knuckleball types. Jim Palmer, Hoyt Wilhelm, Eddie Plank, Maddox, Spahn, and among guys pitching now Matt Cain and Troy Percival. Zito is also below the BABIP line consistently and even egregiously against right handed hitters. Curious he's league average almost exactly with lefties career wise. Robin Roberts, too, who gave up a ton of homers as well. Now - no way I'm comping Shearn with any of those guys but he's a flyball pitcher (high homers rate + fly outs which are easier to defend, another trait of guys who've beaten BABIP averages consistently), a soft tosser with a 12-6 curve that induces flies but not a lot of liners. He'll definitely rise per BABIP and his adjusted ERA is what? 5.27? Still I think he pitches gutsy and keeps his head.

Also, as per competing next year, Harang should get even better as he's currently at or near the lead in high BABIP. He's been very unlucky getting outs. That's hard to imagine with his record nevertheless. Add to that Arroyo has pitched at league BABIP average but his run support has been abysmally unlucky. Anyone know his BABIP to mate BABIP differential? Our top two should as good or better next season. Bailey shoul be getting a clue, Cueto a shot sometime next year, and Maloney, too.

Belisle has also been a bit unlucky, over the league average in BABIP, but his K rate is up, his K-9 is better than league average, WHIP is right at average, all he needs conquer is the tendency to give up too many homers and he becomes a solid starter, too. All his peripherals proclaim him better than his record - except that big, big HR allowed stat.

So, yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic. There is enough offense to work a deal for another arm, and some guys that should get better, some kids with talent, a full season ahead for Burton, a year of experience for Coot, hopefully a healthy Bray and steady Weathers.

No, I don't see a powerhouse here, but I do see a team that can compete with the Cubs, Cards, Brewers, Astros and Pirates - and win. I do see the problems with D, the lack of depth, especially on the mound, and apprehension at what WK will deal and for what this winter but hey, baseball is realistic optimism for me. Until the rose in the pond winds up a turd in the toilet bowl, I'm gonna keep seeing the rose (maybe with my nose pinched shut).

I think we're looking at two different Cincinnati Reds ballclubs for 2008.

After Harang, I don't have any faith in the rotation. Arroyo has been pedestrian, at best, this year, and I can't imagine he'd put up numbers closer to his 2006 going forward on a consistent basis. That being said, Arroyo is fine as a #3 SP for our rotation. After Harang and Arroyo, we have 3 large question marks. Bailey needs to make drastic improvements and strides with his development, and for whatever reason I don't think the FO is admitting the severity of his groin injury. Cueto will be a rookie in 2008, if he's called up, and same with Maloney. Two true rookies and Bailey don't give me the strongest sense of security for our rotation. I'd like to think that Belisle can step up and emerge to be a #3 or #4 in our rotation, but he just lacks consistency. He does give up the longball a bit too much, but does have good K rates, which do give me hope, albeit small.

As for the offense, it all comes down to Dunn's option. Pick it up, and I think we can build around him, as long as we get a manager in place that understands what our players bring to this plate, and where to put them. Griffey will remain a mystery for 2008, in the sense of we honestly don't know what to expect from him. If Bruce and or Votto make the team out of ST, what can we realistically expect from them? I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable relying on two rookies, but I'm not ruling out that they can't surprise us all. As long as we're putting our 8 best out there on a daily basis, that's all we can really ask. IMO, we're still one consistent bat away from having a legitimate offense. Maybe one of those bats will be Votto and or Bruce.

To recap, I think we look very good for 2009, but I think we have too many questions to answer and areas to address for 2008 to take this team seriously to think we might sniff the postseason.