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BEETTLEBUG
09-18-2007, 10:53 AM
Does anyone know how many blown saves the Reds have this year?

Hey Meat
09-18-2007, 11:18 AM
Does anyone know how many blown saves the Reds have this year?

The CHicago broadcasters said 27. Burton should be the closer. Weathers is meat.

Red Daddy
09-18-2007, 11:22 AM
If the bullpen has blown 27 saves opp's, this should be a playoff team. This is shameful. I'm not blaming anybody, WK is trying hard, but its not happening. :thumbdown

BEETTLEBUG
09-18-2007, 11:29 AM
Thanks ! Red Daddy

BEETTLEBUG
09-18-2007, 12:06 PM
What is average Blown per MLB?

DTCromer
09-18-2007, 12:37 PM
The CHicago broadcasters said 27. Burton should be the closer. Weathers is meat.

Burton has 3 BS in 44 appearances. Weathers has 6 in 65.

Let's not forget Burton appeared in a lot of games earlier in the year in mop up duty. Weathers will still the be the closer this year and should be. Our biggest problem this year wasn't Weathers, it was the 8th inning. Of those 27 BSs, I wonder how many of those were due to the setup guys.

DTCromer
09-18-2007, 12:49 PM
What is average Blown per MLB?

18 is MLB average/team.


Weathers 6 (65)
Burton 3 (44)
Majewski 3 (28)
Stanton 3 (65)
Coffey 3 (57)
Guardado 2 (11)
McBeth 2 (18)
Coutlangus 2 (62)
Saarloos 1 (33)
Gosling 1 (27)
Salmon 1 (23)

And someone else that I'm not going to look up.

Weathers is tied for 6 BS with 15 other guys in blown saves so he's basically your average closer.

RedsMightWin
09-18-2007, 12:51 PM
Burton has 3 BS in 44 appearances. Weathers has 6 in 65.

Let's not forget Burton appeared in a lot of games earlier in the year in mop up duty. Weathers will still the be the closer this year and should be. Our biggest problem this year wasn't Weathers, it was the 8th inning. Of those 27 BSs, I wonder how many of those were due to the setup guys.

How many save opportunities is what matters not appearances.

DTCromer
09-18-2007, 06:51 PM
How many save opportunities is what matters not appearances.

Ok, David is 30/36.

I(heart)Freel
09-18-2007, 08:47 PM
Hoping this chart is readable, showing each team's Save Percentage...

Team SV%
St. Louis Cardinals 0.775
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.766
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.754
Milwaukee Brewers 0.738
Chicago Cubs 0.736
New York Mets 0.712
Atlanta Braves 0.673
San Diego Padres 0.672
Philadelphia Phillies 0.655
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.646
San Francisco Giants 0.636
Florida Marlins 0.621
Washington Nationals 0.612
Colorado Rockies 0.586
Houston Astros 0.582
Cincinnati Reds 0.534


Think this sheds light on why we'll be home in October.

GoReds33
09-18-2007, 09:21 PM
Hoping this chart is readable, showing each team's Save Percentage...

Team SV%
St. Louis Cardinals 0.775
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.766
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.754
Milwaukee Brewers 0.738
Chicago Cubs 0.736
New York Mets 0.712
Atlanta Braves 0.673
San Diego Padres 0.672
Philadelphia Phillies 0.655
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.646
San Francisco Giants 0.636
Florida Marlins 0.621
Washington Nationals 0.612
Colorado Rockies 0.586
Houston Astros 0.582
Cincinnati Reds 0.534


Think this sheds light on why we'll be home in October.I think that's why we are talking about it. If we had a higher save percentage we would atleast be somewhat in contention right now.:cool:

gedred69
09-18-2007, 11:19 PM
Hoping this chart is readable, showing each team's Save Percentage...

Team SV%
St. Louis Cardinals 0.775
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.766
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.754
Milwaukee Brewers 0.738
Chicago Cubs 0.736
New York Mets 0.712
Atlanta Braves 0.673
San Diego Padres 0.672
Philadelphia Phillies 0.655
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.646
San Francisco Giants 0.636
Florida Marlins 0.621
Washington Nationals 0.612
Colorado Rockies 0.586
Houston Astros 0.582
Cincinnati Reds 0.534


Think this sheds light on why we'll be home in October.

Great stats. Add it all up, Runs scored, etc. if this bull pen had only been 50% better----which still wouldn't be all that great--- they'd be in 1st place and fighting the Cubs and Brewers off. Kinda' brings on nausea..

Moosie52
09-19-2007, 07:47 AM
Looks like the Reds are equal opportunity blowers. I'll bet most of their BS came before the All-Star game, though.

SMcGavin
09-19-2007, 11:20 AM
Geez, I knew our bullpen was bad, but that's ridiculous. When we turn the game over to the bullpen with a lead, we win just over half of the time. Put another way, the Reds have to win the first six innings or so to even have a 53% chance of winning the game. That is mind boggling.

AmarilloRed
09-19-2007, 01:06 PM
Looks like the Reds are equal opportunity blowers. I'll bet most of their BS came before the All-Star game, though.

It would be good to have a breakdown on when we had the blown saves. I also think most of them probably occurred in the first half.

dthomas24
09-19-2007, 01:10 PM
It would be good to have a breakdown on when we had the blown saves. I also think most of them probably occurred in the first half.

Man it is mind blowing how bad this team was for the first half of the season. On another thread we were talking about the strikeouts the team had the first half compared to the second half and now it's the blown saves for the first half. Everything that could go wrong with this team happened in the first half. I continually said during the first half that this teanm is not as bad as they played and I think they are finally showing their true colors...too little too late!

DntKnw
09-19-2007, 01:40 PM
It would be good to have a breakdown on when we had the blown saves. I also think most of them probably occurred in the first half.

It would also be good to have the # of games when we won despite the blown save (i.e. other team tied it up accouting for the BS but we still won) and the # of games in which there were 2 or more blown saves in the same game (i.e. reliever one blows the save in the 8th, the Reds take the lead in the 9th and reliever 2 blows the save again in the 9th).

In other words, how many losses actually occured because of the blown saves?

texasdave
09-19-2007, 02:00 PM
Here are some statistics on the Reds' save situations during 2007:


DATE RESULT MONTH BS
18-Apr Loss April 2
19-Apr Loss May 4
3-May Loss June 7
8-May Loss July 5
13-May Loss August 7
22-May Loss Sept. 2
3-Jun Loss TOTAL 27
9-Jun Loss
14-Jun Loss BS-LOST 18
20-Jun Loss BS-WON 8
27-Jun Win TOTAL 26
28-Jun Loss
29-Jun Loss BS GM %
7-Jul Win Pre-ASB 15 88 17.0%
8-Jul Win Pst-ASB 11 63 17.5%
18-Jul Win TOTAL 26 151 17.2%
26-Jul Win
27-Jul Win BS BS-WON %
4-Aug Win Pre-ASB 15 3 20.0%
9-Aug Loss Pst-ASB 11 5 45.5%
9-Aug Loss TOTAL 26 8 30.8%
15-Aug Win
23-Aug Win SOV 59
28-Aug Loss SAVES 32
31-Aug Loss BS 27
8-Sep Loss % 54.2%
17-Sep Loss



*NOTE* On August 9th the Reds' bullpen reached a new low by blowing the save twice. That accounts for the one save discrepancy between total saves and the number of saves pre- and post-ASB.

Some observations:
1)The Reds' bullpen has actually blown saves in a slightly higher percentage of games post-ASB. (17.5% to 17.0%) I would not have guessed that.
2)The Reds have come back to win blown-save games at a much a higher percentage post-ASB. This probably is one reason why the blown saves don't seem to be as much of a problem in the second half of the season.
3)The Reds went on to lose the first 10 games in which they blew the save. Ugh.
4)The Reds blew saves in five games during the month of July and came back to win all of them. Take that, Pythagorean Theorem! The stretch reached 6 games total before the double-blown save special on August 9th.
5)Most blown saves in a month happened twice - June and August. (Although the double-disaster on 8/9 actually gives the nod to June)
6)Least blown saves in a month - April. Heady bullpen days, my friend.
7)Of the 26 games in which a save was blown, the Reds offense rallied in 8 of them - 30.8%.

redsupport
09-19-2007, 05:51 PM
too bad rick white, chris hammond, a j. johnson are not here to enjoy the "turnaround"

gedred69
09-19-2007, 08:11 PM
Well, all the afore-mentioned stats and tweaking of such, doesn't change the fact that out of all relievers besides Weathers, there is only one save opportunity,(Bray the other day) that wasn't blown. To compound my frustration, consider this will be the 7th consecutive losing season, the Reds longest such stretch in half a century. Attendance was a major league 4th worst. This is a sad legacy for a once very stellar and proud franchise.

I do feel attendance would be better if a better, more accessable stadium site had been selected, with more places of interest about. Northern Hamilton County, Northern Ky? Some place beyond the reach of City councils' political muttonheads who have stymied the so-called "Banks" development for so many years now. For cryin' out loud, could they at least turn that adjacent wasteland into a *#!?%&#+;^* public parking lot!!??!!

Will M
09-19-2007, 09:49 PM
Here are some statistics on the Reds' save situations during 2007:


DATE RESULT MONTH BS
18-Apr Loss April 2
19-Apr Loss May 4
3-May Loss June 7
8-May Loss July 5
13-May Loss August 7
22-May Loss Sept. 2
3-Jun Loss TOTAL 27
9-Jun Loss
14-Jun Loss BS-LOST 18
20-Jun Loss BS-WON 8
27-Jun Win TOTAL 26
28-Jun Loss
29-Jun Loss BS GM %
7-Jul Win Pre-ASB 15 88 17.0%
8-Jul Win Pst-ASB 11 63 17.5%
18-Jul Win TOTAL 26 151 17.2%
26-Jul Win
27-Jul Win BS BS-WON %
4-Aug Win Pre-ASB 15 3 20.0%
9-Aug Loss Pst-ASB 11 5 45.5%
9-Aug Loss TOTAL 26 8 30.8%
15-Aug Win
23-Aug Win SOV 59
28-Aug Loss SAVES 32
31-Aug Loss BS 27
8-Sep Loss % 54.2%
17-Sep Loss



*NOTE* On August 9th the Reds' bullpen reached a new low by blowing the save twice. That accounts for the one save discrepancy between total saves and the number of saves pre- and post-ASB.

Some observations:
1)The Reds' bullpen has actually blown saves in a slightly higher percentage of games post-ASB. (17.5% to 17.0%) I would not have guessed that.
2)The Reds have come back to win blown-save games at a much a higher percentage post-ASB. This probably is one reason why the blown saves don't seem to be as much of a problem in the second half of the season.
3)The Reds went on to lose the first 10 games in which they blew the save. Ugh.
4)The Reds blew saves in five games during the month of July and came back to win all of them. Take that, Pythagorean Theorem! The stretch reached 6 games total before the double-blown save special on August 9th.
5)Most blown saves in a month happened twice - June and August. (Although the double-disaster on 8/9 actually gives the nod to June)
6)Least blown saves in a month - April. Heady bullpen days, my friend.
7)Of the 26 games in which a save was blown, the Reds offense rallied in 8 of them - 30.8%.

I remember April. Saarloss pitched so well we thought we stole a great set up guy from the A's. Unfortunately after ~3 weeks our great pen when into the dump ( and Matt Belisle soon followed ).

757690
09-20-2007, 03:53 PM
Weathers is tied for 6 BS with 15 other guys in blown saves so he's basically your average closer.

Weathers is 31 for 37. Of the 9 MLB relievers with 30-40 SVO, he is dead last with 6 blown saves. Five have 2 or 3, three have 4 and Weathers has 6.
Also, of the 15 relievers with 30 or more saves, Weathers ranks 12 in ERA with 3.79, and is a whole half a run higher than the next best, Gregg with 3.25. 11 have ERA's under 3.00, which is what a solid closer should have.

I still think he has been outstanding this year, and I can't imagine how the Reds would have been without him. But it seems that he is not a top level reliever, and if ran the Reds, I would not feel comfortable with him as the closer going into next year.

He would be a great set-up man, who could close when needed, but he just doesn't seem to be the lights out guy needed to win the big games.

Then again, the Cubs and Indians are in first with Ryan Dumpster and Joe Borowski as their closers, so maybe a lights out closer is not as important as most people think.

ThirdBaseCoach
09-20-2007, 04:44 PM
........

Then again, the Cubs and Indians are in first with Ryan Dumpster and Joe Borowski as their closers, so maybe a lights out closer is not as important as most people think.

Your last sentence says it all, 7......

It's too easy to overthink this game.

Jay Bruce
09-20-2007, 09:03 PM
Well, all the afore-mentioned stats and tweaking of such, doesn't change the fact that out of all relievers besides Weathers, there is only one save opportunity,(Bray the other day) that wasn't blown.


The Reds actually have 55 holds on the year, so there have been more than just the one non-Weathers save opportunity that wasn't blown.