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View Full Version : What is a shot at a ring worth?



Red Heeler
09-18-2007, 11:49 AM
Who would think that a team with the Reds' record could be close to World Series contention? What would it take to push the Reds into a true power broker? Not that much, really.

The Reds have scored 737 runs compared to 798 given up. The Reds Pythagorean record would be .460 (one game off their real record).

Replacing the games started by a not-yet-ready or injured Homer Bailey and the ne'er will be's Elizardo Ramirez and Phil Dumatrait with someone who can put up a 5.40 ERA (not a very high bar) would save the Reds 24 runs for a WP of .475.

Now, replace the stink infested innings of Todd Coffey, Kirk Sarloos, and Gary Majewski with a motley bunch with an ERA of 5.40. For reference, the much maligned Victor Santos managed a 5.19 ERA during his tenure. That would save the Reds another 22 runs. WP now stands at .490.

With only the addition of a pedestrian 5th starter and two non-disaster relievers, the Reds would be within sight of good teams.

Now, how to go from slightly below .500 to a champion? Be bold! Damn the torpedos and full speed ahead! Trade Josh Hamilton and Homer Bailey to the Minnesota Twins for Johan Santana.

Why it works for the Twins: no one will offer more.

Why it works for the Reds: Santana would take up the IP by Kyle Lohse, Bobby Livingston, and Eric Milton, saving the Reds another 53 runs, good for a WP of .526 and 1st place in the NL central.

Yea, but Hamilton has contributed to those 737 runs scored. I'll take my chances that a rookie Jay Bruce can duplicate Josh's production.

But Homer is the next... Clemens? Maybe. Todd Van Poppel? Could be. The Reds have Harang and Arroyo for 3 more years. Barring injury, Homer might be a force at some point in those 3 years. Barring injury, Santana will be the best pitcher in baseball next year.

Highlifeman21
09-18-2007, 11:58 AM
Love the spirit!

Unfortunately, the Twins are chock full of young pitching; arms that are more accomplished and developed than Homer Bailey.

Fortunately, Josh Hamilton might be exactly the type player that might interest the Twins, with them seemingly on the verge of letting Torii Hunter walk.

Unfortunately, Josh Hamilton and Homer Bailey won't net us a year of Johan Santana, as the Reds would never be able to afford to keep Johan Santana.

I would love for the Reds to send a message to the fans that they are serious and committed to winning by casting off our young, unproven talent for proven talent.

I just don't see it happening within the next 10 years.

Red Heeler
09-18-2007, 12:07 PM
Unfortunately, the Twins are chock full of young pitching; arms that are more accomplished and developed than Homer Bailey.

Unfortunately, Josh Hamilton and Homer Bailey won't net us a year of Johan Santana, as the Reds would never be able to afford to keep Johan Santana.


Santana is signed for next year at right about what Milton and Lohse cost the Reds this year, so they can add him without affecting payroll at all. I'd be willing to put all my eggs into the 2008 basket and let him walk at the end of the year. However, if the Reds so choose, they could split Jr's salary slot for raises to Santana and Dunn in 2009 and beyond.

The Twins may not NEED Bailey, but they would certainly WANT him. If nothing else, he could be flipped for the bat that they do need.

Highlifeman21
09-18-2007, 12:45 PM
Santana is signed for next year at right about what Milton and Lohse cost the Reds this year, so they can add him without affecting payroll at all. I'd be willing to put all my eggs into the 2008 basket and let him walk at the end of the year. However, if the Reds so choose, they could split Jr's salary slot for raises to Santana and Dunn in 2009 and beyond.

The Twins may not NEED Bailey, but they would certainly WANT him. If nothing else, he could be flipped for the bat that they do need.

I'm not sure if I'm so willing to put all my eggs into the 2008 basket, even with 1 year of Johan Santana.

Santana and Harang? That's a great 1-2, but after Arroyo we would still have 2 more question marks. And the bullpen? Do we have a magic pill to cure all of that group?

Also, if we trade Hamilton, are we counting on Bruce to be ready to pick up the slack? I have a feeling we'd need to trade away more offense than just Hamilton to the Twins to obtain Santana.



I just don't think the benefits of a winning season in 2008 would outweigh the potential negatives of putting all our eggs in the 2008 basket.

RedLegSuperStar
09-18-2007, 01:34 PM
It would probably take Bruce and Bailey just to start negotiating with the Twins. Santana would be an upgrade.. no doubt. But his 30 HR's he has given up scares me in a place like GABP. His ERA, K's, and Win Total's are among the League Leaders and no doubt would he put a lot of focus on the Reds organization.. I just don't think the Reds have what it takes to compete with packages the Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Boston, Arizona, or even Tampa Bay could throw at the Twins.

Now I do like the idea of obtaining someone like Santana because that would pursway others to coming to the organization.. which would lead to ticket sales, revenue, endorsements, etc.. and hopefully a team that would compete year after year.

Red Heeler
09-18-2007, 06:29 PM
It would probably take Bruce and Bailey just to start negotiating with the Twins. Santana would be an upgrade.. no doubt. But his 30 HR's he has given up scares me in a place like GABP. His ERA, K's, and Win Total's are among the League Leaders and no doubt would he put a lot of focus on the Reds organization.. I just don't think the Reds have what it takes to compete with packages the Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Boston, Arizona, or even Tampa Bay could throw at the Twins.

Now I do like the idea of obtaining someone like Santana because that would pursway others to coming to the organization.. which would lead to ticket sales, revenue, endorsements, etc.. and hopefully a team that would compete year after year.

Who else has a .922 OPS outfielder making peanuts and the best pitching prospect in baseball (at least at the beginning of 2007) to offer? Sure, maybe somebody else could offer quantity, but Hamilton and Bailey should trump any quality other teams could throw their way.

Red Heeler
09-18-2007, 06:33 PM
I'm not sure if I'm so willing to put all my eggs into the 2008 basket, even with 1 year of Johan Santana.

Santana and Harang? That's a great 1-2, but after Arroyo we would still have 2 more question marks. And the bullpen? Do we have a magic pill to cure all of that group?


If you add Santana, all you to come up with is two relievers and one starter who can post 5.40 ERA's to lead the division this year. If the Reds front office can't manage that simple task, then there is no hope of ever being competetive.

Hoosier Red
09-18-2007, 06:43 PM
I'm all for it, I'd do it Encarnacion/Hamilton or Cueto/Bailey. They can pick one of each.
Encarnacion would replace Nick Punto.
Hamilton as said could replace Hunter.
They get one of the top two pitchers in the minor leagues to give their farm even more dazzle.

RedEye
09-18-2007, 07:26 PM
I'm not sure if I'm so willing to put all my eggs into the 2008 basket, even with 1 year of Johan Santana.

Santana and Harang? That's a great 1-2, but after Arroyo we would still have 2 more question marks. And the bullpen? Do we have a magic pill to cure all of that group?


I think quite a few contending major league teams have question marks in the 4 slot... and most of them have questions in the 5 slot, or at least unproven talent.

A top-of-the-line SP like Santana would make this rotation one of the best in baseball, no question. I think you do that trade in a heartbeat, especially if you can get some indication that Santana is willing to discuss an extension.

No, Bruce is not a guaranteed replacement for Hamilton... but decent OF talent is a lot better to acquire off the scrap heap than great starting pitching.

Highlifeman21
09-18-2007, 08:45 PM
If you add Santana, all you to come up with is two relievers and one starter who can post 5.40 ERA's to lead the division this year. If the Reds front office can't manage that simple task, then there is no hope of ever being competetive.

Therein lies the problem.

We might have the starter (Belisle) that will put up the 5.40, but we're still 2 relievers shy.

And I'm not so convinced that Bruce would immediately be able to replace Hamilton's numbers, in which case we're improving the pitching while sacrificing offense, which could have an ill-intended impact.

I definitely don't think we'd be able to re-sign Santana, so we're giving up Hamilton for 1 year of Santana, and I don't think Santana would even be enough for us to have postseason success for 2008.

Red Heeler
09-18-2007, 11:23 PM
Therein lies the problem.

We might have the starter (Belisle) that will put up the 5.40, but we're still 2 relievers shy.

And I'm not so convinced that Bruce would immediately be able to replace Hamilton's numbers, in which case we're improving the pitching while sacrificing offense, which could have an ill-intended impact.

I definitely don't think we'd be able to re-sign Santana, so we're giving up Hamilton for 1 year of Santana, and I don't think Santana would even be enough for us to have postseason success for 2008.

My original post assumes that Belisle will fill the 4th spot at his current level, so the Reds would need 1 more starter and 2 more relievers who could handle the monumental task of maintaining a 5.40 ERA. If you don't trust Krivsky & Co. to come up with those 3 pitchers, then why in the world would you want them running the franchise?

I will give you that Bruce may not replicate Hamilton's 2007 numbers. Then again, Hamilton may not replicate Hamilton's 2007 numbers. You assume that Bruce would have to replace Hamilton to start 2008. Hamilton has 298 ABs for the year. Brandon Phillips has 258 since the AS break. That would give Jay three months to get some seasoning either with the Reds or with Louisville before getting a full time gig.

The goal with a Santana, Harang, Arroyo rotation would be to simply get into the playoffs. They don't have to win 100+ games. The Diamondbacks have already shown that two dominant starters is enough to bring home a ring.

AtomicDumpling
09-19-2007, 12:29 AM
Another option is to keep Hamilton and Bailey (or trade them for someone else) and go after Johan Santana next offseason on the free agent market.

Wait a second before you scream "The Reds can't afford to pay Santana!!!!!!!!".

Wait a second.

The Reds can afford to pay Santana. It is just a matter of preference. Pay him and maybe win the division and break even on money. Or don't pay him, lose the division (again) and make a big profit. The Reds always choose option #2, but there is no reason why they couldn't choose option #1. If we Reds fans are so willing to let them choose profit over winning then that is what they will continue to do every year.

The Reds have about $80 million this season wrapped up in player salaries, deferred money and dead money being paid to players no longer on the team. They have $15-20 million coming off the books this winter, some of which will go to salary increases/raises for current players. They made a profit of $22 million last year and presumably are making a similar amount this season. The value of the franchise is rising steadily.

Do the math and you can see that a payroll of $100 million would still allow the Reds to break even financially while the value of the franchise continues to rise. If the increased payroll leads to improved team performance and a playoff spot the team will reap millions more dollars in profits.

This option doesn't only apply to Santana. The Reds could sign Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard or any other big-time stud when they become a free agent. Just because the Reds have historically always chosen profit over winning doesn't mean the new ownership will do the same.

It remains to be seen whether Castellini is just a business man or whether he is a competitor. Does he want to win? We shall see.

I know what Mark Cuban (Mavericks and maybe Cubs soon) would choose. He would spend the money and win. So would Daniel Snyder (Redskins). Castellini has plenty of money to spend. If he doesn't want to spend the money to win then I hope he sells the team to someone who does want to win.

The Reds are not the Montreal Expos or the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Cincinnati is a strong, healthy baseball market and the Reds have plenty of revenue to support a winning team. This is not a team doomed to lose perpetually due to lack of resources. All too many Reds fans have bought into the "we can't afford to have any good players" mantra. We as Redszoners and as informed fans should use our unified voice to educate casual fans to not accept a losing team as an inevitability. Reds fans need to demand a winner -- or else we will never have a winning team. No excuses.