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Krusty
09-19-2007, 10:55 AM
Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason:

1. Pete Mackanin.
Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?

3. Adam Dunn.
Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?

4. Jared Burton.
Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?

5. Wayne Krivsky.
This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?

westofyou
09-19-2007, 11:05 AM
It's only Krivsky's 2nd off season, he was hired in February 2006

Chip R
09-19-2007, 11:07 AM
Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason:

1. Pete Mackanin.
Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?

3. Adam Dunn.
Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?

4. Jared Burton.
Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?

5. Wayne Krivsky.
This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?


1. I try to go after someone like LaRussa or someone with a good track record that the players will play hard for and other teams respect. If no one fits the bill, I have no problems re-signing Mackanin to a 1 year contract. If it was good enough for Walter Alston, it should be good enough for most managers.

2. Gonzo and ideally Keppinger is your top utility guy. However Castro fouls that scenario up.

3. You pick up his option. You don't actively shop him but if someone offers you something special, you have to listen if only to gauge his value. Of course since he has a no-trade clause it's ultimately up to him. And you don't put Hamilton in LF. You put Jr. there.

4. Keep things the way they are but try to trade Weathers and when he is traded, you put Burton in that role.

5. It's really his 2nd offseason since he really didn't get started until right before ST after he was hired. I'm hesitant to have a revolving door of GMs here since when you bring a new guy in, you have a new philosophy and you bring in new people and it's essentially a wasted season.

bucksfan2
09-19-2007, 11:22 AM
1. NO. You give him a chance to interview but you can not extend him without interviewing other candidates.

2. I lean towards Keppy but both will be back next season. I think that Gonzo is going to have some trade value because he has a very friendly contract.

3. Absolutly. You have to pick up Dunn and then decide which direction to go. It would be a shame to see Dunn sent packing so Jr. could finish as a red.

4. No. Burton has to earn it. Remember Hot Todd Coffey? If he continues to pitch well you give him the opportunity but by no means do you just hand him the job.

5. I give him until the end of next season and then look at the club. You never know what both him and Cast agreed to when Krivsky was hired.

Other questions I would ask would be

What to do with bad contracts?
Freel, Coffey, and Stanton all have contracts for next year and have shown that they can not produce better that cheaper, younger replacements.

Jay Bruce and Cueto?
How do you handle these guys. The reds have brought their prospects along at a slow pace. You can't argue with the impact that Keppy and Votto have had in their time in the bigs. You also don't know if their extended time in AAA actually helped their development.

What do you do about the log jams?
Encarnacion, Keppinger, Freel, Gonzo, Phillips, Cantu, Votto, Lopez, and Hatty all play infield and all have shown that they all have their pros and cons. In the outfield you have Dunn, Hamilton, Griffey, Hopper, Ellison?, and Freel who each bring in an individual skill set. Who do you keep, who do you trade, who do you send to AAA.

Kc61
09-19-2007, 11:23 AM
So the Reds have an 8th inning, 9th inning combo that seems to be working pretty well. Let's just switch guys around, maybe we can mess it up!

Seriously, unless they get a better reliever in the off-season, the Reds should go into next year with the current Burton/Weathers combo. They will also need a couple of other late inning relievers because these guys can't pitch every day. Bray is a possibility although his numbers fell off late in the season. Guardado, if healthy and signable. A new guy (righty) would help too.

If Weathers falls off next year, then Burton should be given the full shot at closer. But he is young and I think Reds should first let him become established in the 8th inning for awhile.

Guys to shop: Griffey, Gonzo, Freel, Stanton, Coffey.

westofyou
09-19-2007, 11:28 AM
Contracts to dump: Griffey, Gonzo, Freel, Stanton, Coffey.

I fixed that for you.

Though I'll say this, Keppinger ain't the answer at SS

Johnny Footstool
09-19-2007, 11:30 AM
Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason:

1. Pete Mackanin.
Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

Hire someone with a track record of success. The Reds' second half success could be due to simple normalization after their awful first half.


2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?

Do your best to trade Gonzalez (Toronto?). His defense is overrated.

I'd try to make a separate deal for one of the Angels' SS prospects -- they have so many they don't know what to do with them.


3. Adam Dunn.
Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?

You definitely pick up his option -- it would be lunacy to let him go for a draft pick.

As with everyone, you shop him around and see what kind of return he would bring.


4. Jared Burton.
Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?

You bring in more arms (Wuertz, etc.) and let them compete. Weathers' ego won't be bruised.


5. Wayne Krivsky.
This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?

Two words: Bull Pen.

If Krivsky is finally able to bring in some real bullpen help, I think the W/L record will sort itself out. If the Reds' 2008 bullpen isn't at least three-quarters of an ERA point better than the 2007 version, Krivsky should be searching the Help Wanted section of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

dfs
09-19-2007, 11:50 AM
....I think most of those questions are answered.
#1 The reds are going to interview candidates. There's no rush to appoint a manager. They will try and match the guy to the job. Pete could be part of that.

#2 You trade your excess for pitching. After you've done that, you worry about finding slots for your talent.

#3 Dunn's coming back.

#4 You don't make ANY promises to relief pitchers based on 40 innings.

#5 Krivsky isn't going anywhere any time soon. The gutting of the minor league department tells us that.

The big question the reds have during the offseason is how to convert the excess positional hitting talent the reds have into pitching. The organization needs three starting pitchers and probably two decent arms that can be slotted in relief. More would be good. Some of those guys can be Bobby Livingston/Jared Burton type pickups, but some of them HAVE to be of the quality that you can plug them right onto the 25 man roster and not be embarressed.

RedsManRick
09-19-2007, 12:00 PM
1. Pete Mackanin.
Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

I go through the full interview process, but likely end up retaining Petey Mac. In baseball, there are no managers who truly make significant positive differences, only ones who screw things up through poor strategic decision making or clubhouse mismanagement. So far, Mac seems to keep people happy and motivated and doesn't screw up many decisions on the field. Sure, I'd love to have Terry Francona, or some other like minded manager. But that sort of manager would only be hired by that sort of ownership/management team, which we decidedly do not have. For God's sake, no Tony LaRussa or Joe (Destroyer of Young Arms) Girardi, please!



2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?
If I can deal Gonzalez for something of substance, I do. But I don't just ditch him for the sake of it. Their offensive output is likely similar and I don't think his defense is worth 10.5MM more than Keppinger over the next 2 years. With Freel back, we don't need Keppinger as a MI backup[/quote]



3. Adam Dunn.
Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?

Yes, I pick up Dunn's option. But barring a trade offer that would be impossible to refuse (say, Broxton and Kemp), I make every effort to sign him to a 4 year, 60M deal. If he just won't sign, or wants significantly more dough, then I start shopping him. I'm worried about losing both Dunn and Junior. However, Junior needs to go after 2008, whereas Dunn should be an offensive force for a number of years yet. Move Dunn in 2008 and you have a hole in the OF in 2009, even with Hamilton and Bruce here. You simply cannot replace the production that Dunn can provide. Given the choice of Dunn/Bruce/Hamilton or XXXX/Bruce/Hamilton for 2009, I take the former. And given that Junior is the only other offensive player with a substantial contract, and that the contract will be off the books soon, the money is there to retain him.[/quote]



4. Jared Burton.
Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?

Nope, I think the current setup is better for a variety of reasons. Firstly, you have to get through both innings anyways, so the order is less relevant than it seems. Secondly, Burton is the guy I want coming in with men on base - to use him to protect a 3 run lead is a waste. Thirdly, thinking ahead, even mediocre closers fare much better in arbitration than do top set up men. Weathers can be our closer. Burton is the fireman.



5. Wayne Krivsky.
This will be Krivsky's (2nd) offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?
Not necessarily - there's more to it than that. My criteria is one of improvement and direction. Is the franchise measurably stronger than it was? Do we have a growing identity of what Reds baseball is? Should we be winning more games? Wins themselves in any given year can be fickle. But there has to be a clear positive momentum.

I'm definitely not a fan of change simply for changes' sake. If he is going to be replaced, I would hope that Castellini has a clear idea of what Krivksy did wrong, or what he didn't do right. Barring some really obvious failures, I think any GM should get a minimum of 3 full seasons before a definitive evaluation. Krivsky is tasked with directing an entire organization of 100's of employees. Significant change takes time.

While nobody likes to hear that we're in a rebuilding phase, 5 year plan, etc, there is merit to the concept. The problem is in the execution. Done right, and you have situation like the Brewers. Done wrong, and you simply are stuck in a perpetual state of rebuilding. This will be offseason #2 and season #3 for Krivsky. It's time to start seeing the fruits of his labor.

RedLegSuperStar
09-19-2007, 12:27 PM
Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason:

1. Pete Mackanin.
Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

I think Mackanin has done a good job.. not great.. but good. With that said I do think you have to go with someone who has a track record. I would heavily push for La Russa or Torre (If he isn't brought back with New York). La Russa has ties with Bob Castellini and Torre has ties with Ohio with his wife being from here. I would want the Reds to bring back Mackanin in some role though.


2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?

First off Gonzalez has had a decent year at the plate and has been shacky in the field. With that said I feel a lot of it has to do with his ailing son. Can you really focus on your job when you know your child is suffering? I give the job to Gonzalez. Keppinger will see playing time next year especially if La Russa is the manager. Keppinger can play 2B, SS, 3B, and OF.. so he is much like Freel.. a super sub.


3. Adam Dunn.
Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?


At the deadline I was so for trading Dunn. Since then I've realized the offensive numbers this team has is due to Dunn. His strikeouts are down from a year ago.. though 162 is nothing to be ranting and raving about. Other stats that are up from a year ago; Average, Hits, Runs, Doubles, Triples, RBI's, Total Bases, Stolen Bases, OBP., SLG., and OPS. with still 11 games to be played. Josh Hamilton still starts I have to believe for the 2008 Reds and during Spring Training the Reds will get a look at Jay Bruce. However I think if you are the Reds you have to pick up the 2.5 million dollar raise to Dunn. Bruce will start in AAA.. if he continues to put up the monster numbers he put up in '07 then I think you look for offers for Dunn. The start of '08 outfield should consist of Dunn in LF, Hamilton in CF, Griffey in RF, and Freel and Hopper on the bench.


4. Jared Burton.
Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?


Weathers has been the most consistent arm in the pen and has done it all year. Weathers is the closer for next year at least until the deadline. Burton should see some save chances though both the remainder of this season, spring training, and next season.


5. Wayne Krivsky.
This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?

If the rumors are true and Walt Jockerty is leaving St. Louis.. I think you have to try to bring in both La Russa and Jockerty. Krivsky has done well with trading.. just his free agent signings and bullpen reconstruction have not went so well. If Jockerty isn't brought in to start 2008 and Krivsky is the GM and finishes above .500 (which would be close to the top of this division).. I might bring him back for a year or two. Now if it's at .500 or below then I think you have to weight my options and see what is available.

nate
09-19-2007, 12:34 PM
1. Pete Mackanin.
Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

I like the way Pete seems to be handling the club and it _seems_ that the players also like it. I make him part of the people interviewed for the job next year.

Actually, I think the field manager is the least of the organization's problems. Fix the scouting and minor league developmental staff, post haste.


2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?

Gonzales.

I love Kep getting some spot starts around the infield and as a RH contact hitter off the bench though.

If you can trade Gonzales, you have to find a good defensive replacement there.


3. Adam Dunn.
Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?

I pick up his option and try to sign him to another multiyear deal.

Griffey is the one who needs to be traded, IMO.


4. Jared Burton.
Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?

I stop assigning pitchers "roles" and use the best pitcher available for crucial late-inning situations.


5. Wayne Krivsky.
This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?

Actually, its his second but next season is where I would expect to see some fruit on the trees he's planted.

M2
09-19-2007, 01:03 PM
1. I like Mackanin and it's got nothing to do with the W-L. Still, the Reds should do a full manager search.

2. Maybe none of the above. I don't know that either Gonzalez or Keppinger is the answer at SS.

3. The Reds should be contracted if they don't pick up Dunn's option. Technically, if they do pick it up, they can't trade him until June. Though that just means Dunn gets a say in where he goes. I assume that means a trading partner would have to overwhelm the Reds before they broached the subject with Dunn. Oddly I could see someone giving it a shot, which would only make the lack of offers this summer more baffling. Never let it be said that the wisdom of the industry makes sense. Anyway, barring something extraordinary, Dunn's coming back and that's a good thing.

4. The Reds could stand to add some more bullpen arms. Until you know who the new faces are it's impossible to say where Burton should pitch.

5. If Jocketty's available then Krivsky's job might be forfeit. If not, then he'll be back and he'll need to answer the eternal question of rebuild or load up. If he shoots once again for a non-existent middle path then I'd argue he fundamentally doesn't understand the club's predicament.

Krusty
09-19-2007, 02:07 PM
I'll give my shot at my own questions.

1. I would bring Mackanin back on a one-year deal. Maybe it's me but I'm not that fascinated with LaRussa as the manager. Without better pitching, the results would probably be the same as Mackanin as manager. And LaRussa hasn't worked miracles in St. Louis this season with the injuries and subpar pitching.

2. I keep Gonzalez as the shortstop with Keppinger as the utility player. The guy I'm putting on the trading block is Ryan Freel.

3. You pick up his option and try to sign him to an extension. Not everyone can score 100 runs, hit 40+ HRs and 90+ RBIs consistently the past three seasons. Dunn has his faults but there has been improvement this season. The guy the Reds need to move is Griffey because they can't afford both Dunn and Griffey's contracts and afford a solid pitching staff.

4. Burton's stuff is so nasty that it reminds me of Rob Dibble. Eventually Dibble became the Reds closer and I see the same thing for Burton if Weathers struggles early in the closer role come 2008. But if Bill Bray is healthy from the start of the season he could also be a factor.

5. A few more contract signings like the Cormier and Stanton deals and Krivsky's performance as a GM could come under scrutiny. But he has shown the ability to find those hidden gems like Burton, Hamilton, Keppinger and even Cantu. But the likes of Votto, Bruce, Bailey and Cueto were the results of Dan O'Brien's watch as GM in drafting them. Until I see the players obtain in the amateur draft under Krivsky's watch reach the majors, I'll reserve grading him.

KronoRed
09-19-2007, 02:13 PM
1. Give him an interview but make a real search, interview a bunch of people, no need to punt on this like the last two opportunities.

2. Keppinger is not an everyday SS, he should be the new IF supersub, ready for anyone getting hurt.

3. Keep Dunn, no need to actively shop him, unless someone makes a ridiculous offer it's best to keep him long term.

4. Closer is so overrated, keep Burton in a position to get 3 outs when it's really important, 7th 8th...whenever.

5. I think Wayne has to produce a + .500 season next year or he's gone.

johngalt
09-19-2007, 04:49 PM
Jay Bruce and Cueto?
How do you handle these guys. The reds have brought their prospects along at a slow pace. You can't argue with the impact that Keppy and Votto have had in their time in the bigs. You also don't know if their extended time in AAA actually helped their development.


What Keppinger and Votto have done should have no bearing on any decisions regarding Bruce and Cueto. Their situations are completely different.

Keppinger is 27 and has been splitting time between AAA and the majors since the second half of 2004. Votto dominated AA in 2006 and then dominated AAA for a full season before coming up this year.

With Bruce and Cueto, you have two kids who started this season in High A ball. They certainly have more talent, but they've had nowhere near the experience in the upper minors that Keppinger and Votto had before playing well in the bigs.

Highlifeman21
09-20-2007, 08:15 AM
I fixed that for you.

Though I'll say this, Keppinger ain't the answer at SS

Keppinger is a big upgrade over Juan Castro.

Jeff's role should be IF sub/back-up. I wouldn't mind seeing him and Votto split some time at 1B, but that's about all the regular playing time I want to see Keppinger get for the Reds.

All things equal, Keppinger definitely isn't an everyday player, and we shouldn't mistake him as one. We've made that mistake recently with the likes of Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, Juan Castro, Quinton McCracken, Tony Womack and David Ross.

Raisor
09-20-2007, 08:18 AM
Keppinger is a big upgrade over Juan Castro.

.


Unfortunatly, I'd wager that Castro will be on the roster next year.

camisadelgolf
09-20-2007, 08:19 AM
Keppinger is a big upgrade over Juan Castro.

Jeff's role should be IF sub/back-up. I wouldn't mind seeing him and Votto split some time at 1B, but that's about all the regular playing time I want to see Keppinger get for the Reds.

All things equal, Keppinger definitely isn't an everyday player, and we shouldn't mistake him as one. We've made that mistake recently with the likes of Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, Juan Castro, Quinton McCracken, Tony Womack and David Ross.

I agree with you in principle on what you said, but I don't think Ryan Freel belongs in that category, and I have no idea how you could say that mistake has been made with Norris Hopper. Also, I think David Ross is the starter because they don't have anyone else. As for Juan Castro, Quinton McCracken, and Tony Womack, they have started only when others were injured or being given a day off.

Raisor
09-20-2007, 08:22 AM
. As for Juan Castro, Quinton McCracken, and Tony Womack, they have started only when others were injured or being given a day off.

Womack, until his release, was the starting 2b after O'Brien TRADED for him.

Castro was being started by Narron over Eddie E for a couple of weeks last year.

membengal
09-20-2007, 08:49 AM
Unfortunatly, I'd wager that Castro will be on the roster next year.

please. no.

Raisor
09-20-2007, 08:54 AM
please. no.

I feel your pain

GAC
09-20-2007, 08:57 AM
1. Pete Mackanin.
Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

Unless this FO knows of a veteran manager who is attainable - and does anyone really know that? - then you give him a 1 yr deal with no guarantees. Mac will jump at it.


2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?

I really like Keppinger; but I am apprehensive at handing him the SS position on a daily basis. He could turn out to be the next Jack Wilson. Go into the season with both. And if someone shows an interest in Gonzo for something in return, then you have to serious consider it. But don't say I didn't warn you. ;)


3. Adam Dunn.
Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?

You have to sign this guy long term in the off-season. If they can't resign Adam Dunn, and realize his importance to this team, then this organization isn't serious about winning and discussing the rest of these points is, well....... pointless. ;)


4. Jared Burton.
Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?

I listened to a Weather's interview earlier this year inwhich he said that he is actually uncomfortable as a closer and has spent the majority of his career in set-up, which he says he's best suited for.

At some point, and very soon, we are going to have to find that arm for the closer role. Burton or Bray? I don't know. But we are going to have to give someone esle a try and see what's there.

I know it ain't Coffey!


5. Wayne Krivsky.
This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?

Everyone has already shown you it's only his second; but you can't have this "revolving door" every couple of years in the GM position. He's made alot of moves. Some good, some bad/questionable.

My overall evaluation of WK is not based on his picking up "peripheral" players like Conine, Castro, and several others. Players like this were picked up because we have no immediate answers in our farm system. But this team's long term viability is based on the farm system and player development. And looking at this condition of our farm system, especially in the area of pitching, that is not something that can be turned around in two years.

I'm no more gonna label him a good GM for solid finds like Phillips, Hatteberg, Hamilton, Keppinger, and maybe Cantu (we'll see), resigning Harang... then I'm gonna label him a terrible GM for the trades/acquistions he made last year in trying to fix the BP (Majewski, Bray, Cormier, Stanton, etc), or acquring players like we've all have scratched our heads about on this forum.

Too early to really evaluate WK properly IMHO.

redsmetz
09-20-2007, 08:58 AM
Unfortunatly, I'd wager that Castro will be on the roster next year.

I know when he had the surgery, Castro said he thought he'd be back by spring training, but what little I've read, Tommy John surgery generally takes about a year to recover from, at least. Is that right? Then I don't think Castro is an issue anyway until mid-season next year.

GAC
09-20-2007, 09:00 AM
Castro was being started by Narron over Eddie E for a couple of weeks last year.

Because EE was hurt (ankle). If that is the timespan you're referencing. But lets not get into a huge debate on that "controversy" again. I got a headache over that one. :lol:

Besides - we can all agree that we're glad Narron is gone.

Highlifeman21
09-20-2007, 09:27 AM
I agree with you in principle on what you said, but I don't think Ryan Freel belongs in that category, and I have no idea how you could say that mistake has been made with Norris Hopper. Also, I think David Ross is the starter because they don't have anyone else. As for Juan Castro, Quinton McCracken, and Tony Womack, they have started only when others were injured or being given a day off.

Freel and Hopper aren't everyday players. Freel could be a platoon player, but it seems is more better suited and utilized as a super sub, given that we have better everyday players at the positions he can play. Hopper is a 4th OF, at best. We have better everyday options in the OF than Hopper. Also, neither of these two should ever bat lead off. Freel and Hopper are not lead off men, but that's another topic for another thread.


I agree about David Ross, he's the best of the worst, but unfortunately he shouldn't be an everyday player. I'd rather see the Reds go out and get a Brad Ausmus type player (above average D, handles pitchers well, calls a good game) and attempt to help the pitching staff while we've already determined we're going to put an offensive blackhole behind the plate.

15fan
09-20-2007, 09:42 AM
I think there are really only two questions that need to be asked.

1) How / Where are the Reds going to get better starting pitching?

2) How / Where are the Reds going to get better relief pitching?

None of the other stuff really matters if they don't have answers to 1 & 2.

schroomytunes
09-20-2007, 09:56 AM
Well here is my answers to your questions:

1) I would bring Mackanin back and sign him to a 2 year deal with the second year being a team option. The team has performed well in his stint as interim manager.

2) I still like Gonzo as the SS, I think he provides stability and pop to the position but would rather have him batting 7-8 in the lineup. Keppenger becomes our #1 bench infielder.

3) Dunn to me is a no brainer, how many guys hit 40+hrs 100 rbi 100 walks 100runs, the strikeouts ehh who cares.

4) I like burton as the set-up guy right now let Weathers pitch the 9th but give Burton the occasional save to break him in.

5) Krivsky deserves at least another 2 years to let his draft picks pan out and time to mold the team to fit his plan, we gotta be more consistant here!

But here is some of my questions:

1) Who do we keep among our infielders?
- Cantu, Votto, Freel, Keppenger, Valentin, Ross, Hatteberg

2)Who is going to be the 3rd starter?

3)How are we gonna address the bullpen?

My answers:
1)i think Freel became the odd man out with the play of Hopper this year, and with the aquisition of Cantu. I think Freel will be packaged with a bullpen arm(Coffey) and sent packing for prospects.

2) I think we go out in the FA market and aquire an innings eater starter, not a world beater but a guy that can go 180 innings @5 era, and 10-12 wins. I'm thinking a Josh Fogg type, and sign a veteran coming off injury to an incentive contract (John Thompson,Matt Clement) to add to the mix.

3) I think the front office will make a splash in the FA market by signing a solid middle reliever to help bridge the gap in the pen, but I'm not expecting them to sign but 1-2 guys.

Chip R
09-20-2007, 10:42 AM
I know when he had the surgery, Castro said he thought he'd be back by spring training, but what little I've read, Tommy John surgery generally takes about a year to recover from, at least. Is that right? Then I don't think Castro is an issue anyway until mid-season next year.


That's for pitchers. Since Castro's an IFer, he doesn't make his living throwing 90 pitches every 5 days. Raisor's right. If healthy he'll be on the roster next year unless he retires.

westofyou
09-20-2007, 10:49 AM
That's for pitchers. Since Castro's an IFer, he doesn't make his living throwing 90 pitches every 5 days. Raisor's right. If healthy he'll be on the roster next year unless he retires.

You keep saying that Chip, but I'm saying the opposite.

He's done.

BRM
09-20-2007, 10:50 AM
You keep saying that Chip, but I'm saying the opposite.

He's done.

Do you think he'll retire or will Wayne just cut ties with him?

Chip R
09-20-2007, 10:51 AM
You keep saying that Chip, but I'm saying the opposite.

He's done.


We'll see.

GAC
09-20-2007, 11:58 AM
I think there are really only two questions that need to be asked.

1) How / Where are the Reds going to get better starting pitching?

2) How / Where are the Reds going to get better relief pitching?

It's gonna be tough. Especially when I've seen the list of potential FA pitchers. Worse then last off-season IMO.

If they overpay, due to the market, for another Milton-type after we're just getting that off the books... then they have learned nothing.

And every other team in MLB is going to doing your two points. That is really driving the price of average to mediocre pitchers crazy. But it's making alot of agents smile.

I figure they are going to go into next season with Harang, Arroyo, and Belisle. I'd just soon they go after another low risk Lohse-type player, or take a risk on a Shearns or whoever in our system, then a Suppan-type contract.

There's a risk with both obviously. But one is a far greater risk/investment then the other.

And lets no forget or write off Homer. I'm not saying he'll necessarily start with the club next year. But at some stage over the next year he could start to contribute. Fingers crossed and it's still low risk.

IslandRed
09-20-2007, 12:05 PM
I tend to agree with WOY on this one. Ignoring for the moment whether Castro ever should have been on the roster anyway, the perceived need for a defensive caddy has pretty much vanished. The middle infield is solid and Encarnacion has steadied defensively. Keppinger's solid enough as a backup for second, short and third. We'll be carrying another first baseman, maybe two if Hatteberg stays as a pinch-hitting specialist, and a couple of extra outfielders and a catcher. If we continue to carry 12 pitchers, that's all the spots there are.

GAC
09-20-2007, 12:11 PM
You keep saying that Chip, but I'm saying the opposite.

He's done.

I'm with you on this one.

Roster spots are invaluable, and I can't see even WK, looking at what he has available now, giving one to Castro.

AVG .180 | HR 0 | RBI 5 | OBP .211 | SLG .236

How anyone can look at those numbers and give this guy a roster spot is beyond me.

Is it possible to waive Castro and if no one picks him up, ask him to take a minor league assignment for further rehabilatation? If he says No,then release him and eat that .9 mil. We've eaten bigger contracts.

Chip R
09-20-2007, 12:24 PM
I'm with you on this one.

Roster spots are invaluable, and I can't see even WK, looking at what he has available now, giving one to Castro.

AVG .180 | HR 0 | RBI 5 | OBP .211 | SLG .236

How anyone can look at those numbers and give this guy a roster spot is beyond me.

Is it possible to waive Castro and if no one picks him up, ask him to take a minor league assignment for further rehabilatation? If he says No,then release him and eat that .9 mil. We've eaten bigger contracts.


He's not on the roster for his offense. He isn't called Golden Hands cause he trains with Moises Alou.

You can release him and if no one picks him up and both parties are amenable, he can go to AAA. Now if he's hurt, they can send him there on a rehab assignment but for only so long before they either have to bring him back up, keep him on the DL or get rid of him.

M2
09-20-2007, 12:48 PM
He isn't called Golden Hands cause he trains with Moises Alou.

Brilliant line.

GAC
09-20-2007, 12:48 PM
He's not on the roster for his offense.

True.

But as someone else has already noted - with some of the other younger players who have either improved (EE), or we have acquired (Keppinger,Cantu), as well as guys like Hopper, there's no need or roster space for him.

I'd like to see who they are gonna keep off the roster to give Castro that spot. They'll have one heck of a time justifying that. ;)

And I really don't think he'll be ready for ST.

I bet he starts the season, at least, on the DL.

Falls City Beer
09-20-2007, 12:55 PM
Wayne's done nothing to earn the right for fans to *assume* he'll do the right thing vis. the 25th man on the roster, or any other spot on the roster for that matter. If Castro is healthy, fully healthy, I see no reason NOT to assume he'll be on the roster next season. I really have no idea where this benefit of the doubt is coming from.

His management of the major league roster has been nothing less than stygian. A total embarrassment.

Chip R
09-20-2007, 12:59 PM
True.

But as someone else has already noted - with some of the other younger players who have either improved (EE), or we have acquired (Keppinger,Cantu), as well as guys like Hopper, there's no need or roster space for him.

I'd like to see who they are gonna keep off the roster to give Castro that spot. They'll have one heck of a time justifying that. ;)

And I really don't think he'll be ready for ST.

I bet he starts the season, at least, on the DL.


I agree. If it were up to me, I'd never have got him in the first place. But Wayne not only got him but he gave him a multi-year deal because he's got the reputation as a good defensive player. If it comes down to keeping Castro or Keppinger, they will probably keep Castro, especially if Keppinger still has options. And if they want to keep both, they are going to have to do something about Ryan Freel. As for eating contracts, this isn't the New York Yankees. They may eat one or two contracts a year but they aren't going to make it a habit.

Who do they need to justify it to? The media has bought into the "Golden Hands" stuff hook, line and sinker and most fans take what they hear from the media as gospel.

He's a SS, not a pitcher. Guardado was ready in less than a year, why wouldn't Castro be ready by ST?

RichRed
09-20-2007, 01:16 PM
Castro's never been able to hit but Krivsky went and got him anyway. I'd like to think he won't get a roster spot but I'll believe it when I (don't) see it.

KronoRed
09-20-2007, 01:30 PM
If Castro is playing baseball anywhere he'll be on our the 25 man roster IMO.

GAC
09-20-2007, 01:32 PM
If it comes down to keeping Castro or Keppinger, they will probably keep Castro, especially if Keppinger still has options. And if they want to keep both, they are going to have to do something about Ryan Freel.

This "crowded" roster is whats making it harder for WK to keep him on the roster. Didn't have the options he does now. That's why he got Golden Hands to begin with. Situation has changed.


Who do they need to justify it to? The media has bought into the "Golden Hands" stuff hook, line and sinker and most fans take what they hear from the media as gospel.

If they send Keppinger down, after his performance in the second half, and the fact he too has become somewhat of a "darling" of the fans/media, then yeah, WK will have to justify such a ridiculous move.

I hope like hell that Castellini asks him to justify such a move now that we have better options on hand.


As for eating contracts, this isn't the New York Yankees. They may eat one or two contracts a year but they aren't going to make it a habit.

Eating .9 mil ain't that big of a deal. Even for the Reds.

But Wayne is going to avoid all of the above by insuring Juan is on the DL at season's start, and stays on it as long as possible until other options are available (and more palatable) to him. ;)

RedsManRick
09-20-2007, 01:34 PM
Castro's never been able to hit but Krivsky went and got him anyway. I'd like to think he won't get a roster spot but I'll believe it when I (don't) see it.

When Castro was acquired, Felipe Lopez was our starting SS and EE was throwing balls in the visiting dugout with frightening regularity. We had no plus defenders at either 3B or SS in the majors or the upper part of the system.

Since then, we've signed a plus defender at SS and EE has made big strides. I don't think the 2 year contract made any sense at all, but the initial reacquisition is at least defensible.

Krusty
09-20-2007, 01:39 PM
With the emergence of Keppinger, I think Castro's days as a Red have ended. With Gonzalez set at short and Phillips at second along with the defensive improvement of Encarncion, the Reds need to have a backup infielder with a better bat. Keppinger fits that category.

IslandRed
09-20-2007, 01:47 PM
When Castro was acquired, Felipe Lopez was our starting SS and EE was throwing balls in the visiting dugout with frightening regularity. We had no plus defenders at either 3B or SS in the majors or the upper part of the system.

Since then, we've signed a plus defender at SS and EE has made big strides. I don't think the 2 year contract made any sense at all, but the initial reacquisition is at least defensible.

Exactly. Castro was signed to fill the role of late-inning defensive specialist, and the need for that has largely evaporated. What the team needs from a backup infielder now is almost to a tee what Keppinger provides -- the ability to spot start at all three infield positions without torpedoing the team's chance to win that day.

OK, the multi-year extension was ridiculous, but so was Cormier's, and he ate that one.

bucksfan2
09-20-2007, 02:16 PM
I think Castro will be around next season but I think is more likely that he ends up on the 60 day DL to start the season. I would be willing to bet that a deal is made at some point to keep Castro in the organizatoin as a coach. I doubt that he sees the field at any point next season. However I have seen stranger things happen.

redsmetz
09-20-2007, 03:34 PM
I think Castro will be around next season but I think is more likely that he ends up on the 60 day DL to start the season. I would be willing to bet that a deal is made at some point to keep Castro in the organizatoin as a coach. I doubt that he sees the field at any point next season. However I have seen stranger things happen.

I don't know how these things happen, but I could see him being some type of "roving instructor" - we'll have to pay him anyway, might as well get him going on a coaching career.

Stormy
09-20-2007, 03:43 PM
Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason:

1. I'd sign Pete to a 1 year extension, and completely forego the interview process. He's handled most every aspect of the team well, from an improved handling of the bullpen, to better protecting Harang/Arroyo, to getting the most from his youngsters EdE, Hamilton, and a nice start for Votto. Playing 6 over .500 ball with this group, is impressive. He has good leadership and player relation skills, a good eye for evaluation, solid grasp of in-game strategy, and a feel of the big picture which few managers possess. If 2008 doesn't pan out, it's time for a new GM to pick a new manager, anyway.

2. I'm not a Gonzo fan at all, but feel this Keppinger/Gonzo scenario is a no lose situation. If a team buys into Gonzo's inflated offensive numbers, and his reputation as an elite gloveman at SS, and offers a great deal for him, make the move. Otherwise, hold onto him, and use Keppinger's versatility to get him his 4 starts a week in the former Stynes/Freel mode of rotating between 2B, 3B, SS etc... solidifying the bench in the process.

3. Adam Dunn: Pick up his option, and try like hell to extend him for 5 years. He's the foundation of this team, build around him with the youngsters. Desperately try to move Griffey for anything of value, and use the savings towards defraying Dunn's salary in the first years of his extension. Dunn, Hamilton, Bruce, Votto, EdE, BP is some kind of solid young nucleus for an elite offense.

4. Leave Burton where he is. If we want to contend in 2008, we must add 1 above league average Starter, and 1 elite reliever. If the elite reliever displaces Weathers as closer, or Burton as primary setup man, so be it. Otherwise, leave that tandem as it is.

5. Whether by default or by design, Krivsky has a team on the precipice of being able to contend in the 2008 NL Central. If they show signs of progressing in that direction, he definitely deserves to stay. Further missteps which cause us to falter in 2008 would be cause to start reviewing whether he's the answer or not. I'm confident that if he a.) adds the right couple of arms, b.) gets the Dunn extension right, and c.) doesn't meddle with the young core via trades or blocking them with deadweight vets... that he should have an NLC contender on his hands next year.

lollipopcurve
09-20-2007, 03:51 PM
a.) adds the right couple of arms, b.) gets the Dunn extension right, and c.) doesn't meddle with the young core via trades or blocking them with deadweight vets

I don't think you can get the kinds of arms you're talking about without dealing from the young core and/or letting Dunn go in order to reallocate $$$ for good pitching.

MartyFan
09-20-2007, 07:11 PM
Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason:

1. Pete Mackanin.
Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

Sign him to a one year deal with a team option. That way if he is as good as his record has shown so far the Reds have first shot to take him for an extended time.


2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?

Gonzo...Keppinger as a SUPER SUB to replace Freel.


3. Adam Dunn.
Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?

Pick up his option and keep him in LF UNLESS the offer is overwhelming.


4. Jared Burton.
Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?

Yes.


5. Wayne Krivsky.
This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?

It's Special K's second offseason with the Reds.

I'd say that 2009 is the year this team will start to win over .500 and be a contender.

If I could suffer through Marge Schott and Jim Bowden and then Carl Lindner for 10+ years, I am willing to give Special K and Mr. C all the time they need...5 years max...after 5 years I would be a bit frustrated...frustrations for me left when Mr. C purchased this team...He and Special K will turn it around.

RedEye
09-20-2007, 08:41 PM
Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason

1. Pete Mackanin.
Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

I conduct a full search and consider Mackanin one of the candidates.



2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?


Ideally, neither. Realistically, Gonzalez. I think Kepp is best suited as a bench player/Ryan Freel type.



3. Adam Dunn.
Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?


I pick up his option and then try to work out a long term extension. If he's not interested or won't sign for a reasonable price, then I trade him or let him walk for draft picks after the season.



4. Jared Burton.
Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?



I give him a set-up man role going into the season with the understanding that we are still grooming him to close. I choose spots carefully during the season to give him a taste of closing before throwing him in there. We must try to avoid Todd Coffey syndrom with this kid!



5. Wayne Krivsky.
This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?

It will be his second full offseason, I think. At any rate, I don't think his job evaluation should be solely based on the W-L record. If Bruce, Votto, Bailey, and Cueto are all promoted next year, the team could take lumps for awhile in that department. What I do evaluate him on is his work acquiring complementary pieces of the puzzle. My eyes will be particularly trained on the bullpen next year. It is crucial that K take a different tack and turn it around soon, fixing his errors last off-season.

RedsBaron
09-21-2007, 07:54 AM
1. I'd sign Pete to a 1 year extension, and completely forego the interview process. He's handled most every aspect of the team well, from an improved handling of the bullpen, to better protecting Harang/Arroyo, to getting the most from his youngsters EdE, Hamilton, and a nice start for Votto. Playing 6 over .500 ball with this group, is impressive. He has good leadership and player relation skills, a good eye for evaluation, solid grasp of in-game strategy, and a feel of the big picture which few managers possess. If 2008 doesn't pan out, it's time for a new GM to pick a new manager, anyway.

2. I'm not a Gonzo fan at all, but feel this Keppinger/Gonzo scenario is a no lose situation. If a team buys into Gonzo's inflated offensive numbers, and his reputation as an elite gloveman at SS, and offers a great deal for him, make the move. Otherwise, hold onto him, and use Keppinger's versatility to get him his 4 starts a week in the former Stynes/Freel mode of rotating between 2B, 3B, SS etc... solidifying the bench in the process.

3. Adam Dunn: Pick up his option, and try like hell to extend him for 5 years. He's the foundation of this team, build around him with the youngsters. Desperately try to move Griffey for anything of value, and use the savings towards defraying Dunn's salary in the first years of his extension. Dunn, Hamilton, Bruce, Votto, EdE, BP is some kind of solid young nucleus for an elite offense.

4. Leave Burton where he is. If we want to contend in 2008, we must add 1 above league average Starter, and 1 elite reliever. If the elite reliever displaces Weathers as closer, or Burton as primary setup man, so be it. Otherwise, leave that tandem as it is.

5. Whether by default or by design, Krivsky has a team on the precipice of being able to contend in the 2008 NL Central. If they show signs of progressing in that direction, he definitely deserves to stay. Further missteps which cause us to falter in 2008 would be cause to start reviewing whether he's the answer or not. I'm confident that if he a.) adds the right couple of arms, b.) gets the Dunn extension right, and c.) doesn't meddle with the young core via trades or blocking them with deadweight vets... that he should have an NLC contender on his hands next year.

Well said. I fully agree with all points. :thumbup:

RFS62
09-21-2007, 09:12 AM
Well said. I fully agree with all points. :thumbup:


I agree. I believe Stormy nailed it.