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View Full Version : Odds of Dunn being a Red past 2008



flyer85
09-19-2007, 12:41 PM
just wondering if there was a consensus on this board

gonelong
09-19-2007, 12:53 PM
Depends on who the GM is in 2008.

GL

RFS62
09-19-2007, 12:54 PM
I think Krivsky understands and will try to get him long term.

flyer85
09-19-2007, 12:58 PM
Depends on who the GM is in 2008.

GLI don't see any evidence that it won't be Krivsky(especially with the recent canning of Naehring, etc).

flyer85
09-19-2007, 01:00 PM
I think Krivsky understands and will try to get him long term.even if he does I wonder if Dunn has an interest. I think two things will be pushing Dunn out the door: 1) Reds Radio 2) late inning defensive replacement(Pete now does it every game when he has a lead).

Krusty
09-19-2007, 01:09 PM
The Reds are better off signing him to a contract extension and look to move Junior to the AL.

KronoRed
09-19-2007, 01:10 PM
Low, the Reds are still "budget conscious"

Chip R
09-19-2007, 01:24 PM
even if he does I wonder if Dunn has an interest. I think two things will be pushing Dunn out the door: 1) Reds Radio 2) late inning defensive replacement(Pete now does it every game when he has a lead).


Perhaps. Or Dunn might want to stay here just to tick Marty and his pals off.

flyer85
09-19-2007, 01:42 PM
Perhaps. Or Dunn might want to stay here just to tick Marty and his pals off.in the end we can only speculate. From a players POV I would think the on-the-field issues are a lot more important than the other stuff.

pedro
09-19-2007, 01:43 PM
I think Dunn will stay if the Reds offer him a fair extension.

redsmetz
09-19-2007, 01:43 PM
Despite the fact that Dunn said an extension was not discussed, I think this was the purpose of "the lunch" - my guess is that Bob C. wants to convey a "don't listen to the chowderheads" message and was setting the stage for discussions later about an extension.

flyer85
09-19-2007, 02:25 PM
I think Dunn will stay if the Reds offer him a fair extension.I guess "fair extension" is the real crux of the matter. If I was the Reds I would not go beyond 3 years and a club option for a 4th year.

Chip R
09-19-2007, 02:31 PM
I guess "fair extension" is the real crux of the matter. If I was the Reds I would not go beyond 3 years and a club option for a 4th year.


I'd say that's very, very fair.

flyer85
09-19-2007, 02:36 PM
I'd say that's very, very fair.I expect the $$$ will be more important than the years.

Raisor
09-19-2007, 03:00 PM
The Reds are better off signing him to a contract extension and look to move Junior to the AL.



What changed your mind about him?

RedsManRick
09-19-2007, 03:06 PM
If I were Dunn, there's not a chance I'd sign a contract before hitting the market unless I really really wanted to stay in Cincy. But I'd certainly negotiate with the Reds to get a sense of the market, as the Reds would be offering against an imagined FA.

That said, I said 25-49%. I think the Reds will make him an offer, but that most likely that offer will lowball him (3/40 or 4/50) and he'll either be traded or will pursue FA. If the Reds came out and offered 4/60, I think there's a better than even chance he'd sign it. But I don't think they'll do that.

IslandRed
09-19-2007, 03:07 PM
Despite the fact that Dunn said an extension was not discussed, I think this was the purpose of "the lunch" - my guess is that Bob C. wants to convey a "don't listen to the chowderheads" message and was setting the stage for discussions later about an extension.

I'd go along with that. I know it was fashionable among baseball writers earlier this summer to say the Reds were trying to dump Dunn, but I've seen little hard evidence that he isn't valued by the people who matter. We can nitpick his place in the batting order, sure, but that's a managerial decision. We can nitpick whether a true star would be so often replaced for late-inning defense, or whether it's even worth it to replace guys for late-inning defense, but it's hard to argue that it's being done on any basis other than trying to win. Was he on the trading block this summer? Sure. But from all reports, it was on a "he's available if you're overpaying" basis, which is not how you approach it if you really want a guy off your team. And it seems to be a foregone conclusion now that his option will be picked up.

I don't know if he'd even want to re-sign, but I suspect he'll get a fair offer if he does. But it's also easy to construct scenarios where he'll be traded (and not in a dump move). Who knows.

puca
09-19-2007, 03:14 PM
I'd say that's very, very fair.

Fair for the Reds. Not so sure whether it would be 'fair' for Dunn. As a free agent is he's probably looking at 5-6 years minimum.

Chip R
09-19-2007, 03:23 PM
Fair for the Reds. Not so sure whether it would be 'fair' for Dunn. As a free agent is he's probably looking at 5-6 years minimum.


Not a lot of guys are getting those kind of deals. If he can get 5-6 years out of someone, God bless him, but I wouldn't do that.

RedsManRick
09-19-2007, 03:27 PM
If I'm Adam Dunn's agent (and I'm not), here's my starting point. Then I make the case that Dunn is 2.5 years younger at the time of the contract and has been more productive. I happen to believe the Astros overpaid Lee by about 10M relative to the market, but remember, it only takes one team to make an offer; ask Tom Hicks.



Carlos Lee OF
6 years/$100M (2007-12)

* signed as a free agent 11/06
* $3M signing bonus
* 07:$11M, 08:$12M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$18.5M
* full no-trade clause, 2007-2010
* contract includes nominal weight clause
* agent: Adam Katz
* ML service: 7.150

puca
09-19-2007, 03:32 PM
Not a lot of guys are getting those kind of deals. If he can get 5-6 years out of someone, God bless him, but I wouldn't do that.

This past offseason Carlos Lee signed for 6 years, Soriano signed for 8 years. Both were already in their 30's. Dunn is younger and a better hitter than either. Someone will offer him 6+ years if he hits the market.

Chip R
09-19-2007, 03:48 PM
This past offseason Carlos Lee signed for 6 years, Soriano signed for 8 years. Both were already in their 30's. Dunn is younger and a better hitter than either. Someone will offer him 6+ years if he hits the market.


That's what I mean. Not a lot of players like that are getting those deals. Lee had some pretty good RBI totals and I think that is what got him his deal. I love Dunn but his RBI total compared to Lee's isn't as good. I know that RBIs is a stat dependent on guys getting on base ahead of you but a lot of baseball people put a lot of stock in those numbers. They will claim that Dunn either walks or strikes out too much to ever get Leeesque RBI totals.

As for Soriano, he has power and speed and is a better defender than Dunn although that's damning him with faint praise. He can lead off or hit lower in the order. He is more versitile as well.

Granted, both players are older and I'd say Dunn's better than Lee but HOU and the Chubs were desperate for those players so they overpaid. Can you see someone overpaying for a guy like Dunn?

jojo
09-19-2007, 03:50 PM
I'll be pretty surprised if Dunn and the Reds agree to an extension. Unloading Griffey for '08 will be problematic and I think the Reds will get sticker shock if they try to negotiate an extension for Dunn especially with the youngsters they've got in the pipeline. They've got Hamilton controlled for 5 more years. It makes no sense for Bruce to not be on the active roster next season. If he's on the active roster, it makes no sense for him to ride pine. Then the Reds have Stubbs in the pipeline though I know his ETA (or even if he'll arrive) are points of contention among some in the ORG.

My take hasn't really changed I guess. Pick up Dunn's option which really isn't a poor risk then let him go and collect draft picks as someone else assumes the risk of his next contract.

Sea Ray
09-19-2007, 04:02 PM
Granted, both players are older and I'd say Dunn's better than Lee but HOU and the Chubs were desperate for those players so they overpaid. Can you see someone overpaying for a guy like Dunn?

If the trade market this summer was any indication, no. Teams are not willing to commit to a 6-8 yr deal for Dunn. If someone loved him that much you'd think WK would have dealt him to that team. Of course there's always Jim Bowden...

puca
09-19-2007, 04:16 PM
If the trade market this summer was any indication, no. Teams are not willing to commit to a 6-8 yr deal for Dunn. If someone loved him that much you'd think WK would have dealt him to that team. Of course there's always Jim Bowden...

By that logic no one wanted Soriano last year since he wasn't traded a the deadline. Yet that didn't stop the Cubs from signing him to a ridiculous contract in the offseason.

By all reports Wayne was asking for a kings ransom for Dunn (and rightfully so). That doesn't mean that there aren't plenty of teams that would welcome Dunn on their team. I'm guessing that if Dunn hits the market there will be no shortage of teams trying to sign him. We will probably know the answer soon enough, but there are always a few teams that think they are a big bat away from the promised land, and Dunn will be one of the biggest bats on the market whether he hits free agency this year or next.

RedsManRick
09-19-2007, 04:21 PM
If the trade market this summer was any indication, no. Teams are not willing to commit to a 6-8 yr deal for Dunn. If someone loved him that much you'd think WK would have dealt him to that team. Of course there's always Jim Bowden...

It just means that teams didn't want to give up a king's ransom for a rent-a-player, and rightly so. Signing the guy in free agency, which requires just draft pick compensation, is a whole other ball of wax.

Ltlabner
09-19-2007, 04:41 PM
Krivsky's first major order of business as GM (IIRC)? Signed Dunn to a deal.

Jr will either be traded, or he'll work out a deal where he sticks around to hit #600 and then retires. Of corse I said the same thing when he broke his wrist in the offseason, so what do I know.

Dunn's rasied his BA (perception is everthing), he's put in a good August and September and obviously worked to be a better hitter/fielder. To a "baseball guy" those are some golden things (oh yea, the 100 runs, 40 homers and 100 walks are nice too).

He'll be signed to a deal.

dougdirt
09-19-2007, 05:17 PM
Krivsky's first major order of business as GM (IIRC)? Signed Dunn to a deal.

Jr will either be traded, or he'll work out a deal where he sticks around to hit #600 and then retires.

Jr is 7 HR away from #600. He had all of 2008 left on his contract and a 4.5 million dollar buyout for 2009. Why would he retire?

registerthis
09-19-2007, 05:56 PM
Pick up Dunn's option which really isn't a poor risk then let him go and collect draft picks as someone else assumes the risk of his next contract.

If the Reds have no intention of re-signing him, then it doesn't make sense to pick up the otion unless they're going to trade him. This team isn't exactly WS caliber, and unless there's a complete overhaul of the pitching staff this offseason they won't be next year, either. You might as well get something of value for Dunn if you're certain he won't be on the team come 2009.

RedEye
09-19-2007, 05:59 PM
Despite the fact that Dunn said an extension was not discussed, I think this was the purpose of "the lunch" - my guess is that Bob C. wants to convey a "don't listen to the chowderheads" message and was setting the stage for discussions later about an extension.

If that's the case, my estimation of Bobby C just went up immensely.

RedEye
09-19-2007, 06:05 PM
If the Reds have no intention of re-signing him, then it doesn't make sense to pick up the otion unless they're going to trade him. This team isn't exactly WS caliber, and unless there's a complete overhaul of the pitching staff this offseason they won't be next year, either. You might as well get something of value for Dunn if you're certain he won't be on the team come 2009.

Absolutely agree. I have to think that Krivsky has a game plan for this all mapped out... something like this:

1) pick up his option
2) try to trade him between June 15 and July 1 -- demand top pitching/hitting prospects in return. If no trade, then...
3) try to work out a reasonable extension
4) check out the trade options again -- demand a slightly lower price but remain firm with suitors.
5) try to work out a reasonable extension
6) weigh any offers received against the strength of the potential prospects available as supplemental picks if he leaves as a FA in 2009
7) make a decision between letting him go and trading him before the July 31 deadline

jojo
09-19-2007, 07:07 PM
If the Reds have no intention of re-signing him, then it doesn't make sense to pick up the otion unless they're going to trade him. This team isn't exactly WS caliber, and unless there's a complete overhaul of the pitching staff this offseason they won't be next year, either. You might as well get something of value for Dunn if you're certain he won't be on the team come 2009.

It makes perfect sense. They would have a left fielder for '08. They'd be paying him roughly what he's worth. If he walks after '08, the Reds get two draft picks which history suggests are pretty valuable. There is also always the chance the Reds could trade him.

IslandRed
09-19-2007, 08:26 PM
Absolutely agree. I have to think that Krivsky has a game plan for this all mapped out... something like this:

1) pick up his option
2) try to trade him between June 15 and July 1 -- demand top pitching/hitting prospects in return. If no trade, then...
3) try to work out a reasonable extension
4) check out the trade options again -- demand a slightly lower price but remain firm with suitors.
5) try to work out a reasonable extension
6) weigh any offers received against the strength of the potential prospects available as supplemental picks if he leaves as a FA in 2009
7) make a decision between letting him go and trading him before the July 31 deadline

Picking up the option also buys time to see how a couple of other things work out -- namely, will Hamilton come back after an offseason hale, healthy and hitting; and can Jay Bruce play an acceptable center field. I can see a scenario where they'd go straight to the extension strategy, and trade him later only if they couldn't get a contract done. I can also see a scenario where they don't really make an effort to sign him long-term and he's traded for the best offer on the table. I can also fantasize that he walks for draft picks because we were in a pennant race and couldn't afford to trade him even though he planned to test the market. Lots of variables, but I agree that by June 15 they should know whether "extend" or "trade" is the primary goal.

Ltlabner
09-19-2007, 08:55 PM
That BC even took the time to have lunch tells me he/they are making an effort to test the waters and at the very least court one of the most valuable players on the team for the future.

Guys who run big companies don't normally have lunch with the underlings just because they love cloth napkins.

RedsBaron
09-20-2007, 06:39 AM
Assuming that Dunn draws one more walk to reach 100 on the season, he will have his third season in the last four with at least 40 HRs, 100 runs scored, 100 RBI and 100 base on balls. He is the only player in Reds history to have even one such season. He is also the only Reds player to ever hit at least 40 HRs in a season four consecutive years; for that matter, he is the only Reds player to ever have 4 40 HR seasons, consecutive or not.

Highlifeman21
09-20-2007, 06:42 AM
My heart says 75+, my brain says 0 after watching how Dunn's treated by both the FO and the local media that covers him.

All signs point to him being run out of town. I just hope we get a better return than the Phillies did when they ran their best player (at the time) out of town a few seasons ago.

camisadelgolf
09-20-2007, 06:51 AM
Are we doing odds or percentages?

dfs
09-20-2007, 08:09 AM
I put myself in the 25-49 category and I think the chances are closer to 25% than 49%.

The reds SHOULD want to bring him back. I don't think it's clear they feel that way, but that's the way they should feel. That's part of the uncertainty.

There are two sides here. The reds may or may not want to play ball, but if you're Adam Dunn...why the heck would you consider signing even for market value with this franchise? The stability of management? How they've treated his friends? The warmth of the local media? ....I mean....Adam is financially set for life at this point. He rewarded the team that brought him up with a decent value long term contract. This is his chance to make silly major league money. Why turn that down? What have the reds done for him that would make him THINK of signing a "fair" deal? Cincy Chily?

lollipopcurve
09-20-2007, 11:45 AM
I still feel it's unlikely, not that I don't want to see it happen. Dunn has weathered a lot of unfair criticism in Cincinnati, and free agency in 08 is probably the best shot he'll have at a monster payday.

RedEye
09-21-2007, 12:37 AM
I put myself in the 25-49 category and I think the chances are closer to 25% than 49%.

The reds SHOULD want to bring him back. I don't think it's clear they feel that way, but that's the way they should feel. That's part of the uncertainty.

There are two sides here. The reds may or may not want to play ball, but if you're Adam Dunn...why the heck would you consider signing even for market value with this franchise? The stability of management? How they've treated his friends? The warmth of the local media? ....I mean....Adam is financially set for life at this point. He rewarded the team that brought him up with a decent value long term contract. This is his chance to make silly major league money. Why turn that down? What have the reds done for him that would make him THINK of signing a "fair" deal? Cincy Chily?

I think you're right. If I were Adam Dunn, this is how I would feel. Perhaps he'll try to sign with Houston or Texas?

pedro
09-21-2007, 04:01 AM
I think you're right. If I were Adam Dunn, this is how I would feel. Perhaps he'll try to sign with Houston or Texas?

It's a job.

Right now I don't think Adam hates his so why wouldn't he stay in Cincinnati?

IMO changing teams is dicey business if your not already unhappy. Most players don't seem to be inclined to do it unless they are very unhappy where they are. I don't see Dunn that way. I think he likes Cincinnati.

GAC
09-21-2007, 04:56 AM
Absolutely agree. I have to think that Krivsky has a game plan for this all mapped out... something like this:

1) pick up his option
2) try to trade him between June 15 and July 1 -- demand top pitching/hitting prospects in return. If no trade, then...
3) try to work out a reasonable extension

But from what I have followed earlier this year, and even a thread posted on ORG a few months back.... "Dealing Dunn: Not Coming Easy"..... http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=60207&highlight=Trade+Offers+Dunn

WK was attempting to accomplish item #2. Teams were making very underwhelming offers. You'll still be in the same boat next year that you were this year. Why, if you were that team even interested in Dunn, would you trade away top prospects for a guy who is a pending free agent? What has changed?

Maybe the market will be better around the trading deadline next year, but I doubt it. I really think we've seen an "evolution" in this market where team's GMs are getting smarter, avoiding the high priced FAs and hoarding their young, inexpensive talent.

Alot more are attempting to do what WK is trying to do. That makes it alot tougher. I sympathize with trying to be a GM in today's game. You got to be on your toes.


4) check out the trade options again -- demand a slightly lower price but remain firm with suitors.

Again - if we can't even get top prospects for Adam in this current market, then how much lower do we go?

The guy is coming off a very solid year. That may change things somewhat. But shouldn't we be trying to capitalize on that and selling high? That is what I have always been told.

And I'm not advocating that either.

SIGN THIS GUY WAYNE! If you can't see the value and worth he brings to this team and resign this guy, let alone get something of worth in return if trying to trade him, then you Wayne need to be gone.

But I personally think they are following the same approach this organization has always taken.... no negotiations while the season is still going. Take care of it in the off-season. I bet they sign him.

Chip R
09-21-2007, 09:24 AM
I think you're right. If I were Adam Dunn, this is how I would feel. Perhaps he'll try to sign with Houston or Texas?


HOU needs him like they need a hole in the head. Unless HOU switched leagues or the NL adopts the DH, he doesn't have anywhere to play.

KronoRed
09-21-2007, 01:16 PM
HOU needs him like they need a hole in the head. Unless HOU switched leagues or the NL adopts the DH, he doesn't have anywhere to play.

Rangers don't really have a spot for him either.

Chip R
09-21-2007, 01:42 PM
Rangers don't really have a spot for him either.


He can take Shammy's spot.

KronoRed
09-21-2007, 01:48 PM
He can take Shammy's spot.

Nah, they need the veteran experience

Chip R
09-21-2007, 01:55 PM
Nah, they need the HGH


Fixed that for you.

KronoRed
09-21-2007, 01:57 PM
Excellent

puca
09-21-2007, 02:53 PM
It's a job.

Right now I don't think Adam hates his so why wouldn't he stay in Cincinnati?

IMO changing teams is dicey business if your not already unhappy. Most players don't seem to be inclined to do it unless they are very unhappy where they are. I don't see Dunn that way. I think he likes Cincinnati.

I'm not so sure. It has been a long time since I heard Adam say he would like to stay in Cincinnati. He has not exactly been embraced by the fan base or much of the media in the time he has spent here.

I think he is biting his tounge and biding his time until he can see what other gigs might be available. I don't see him signing long-term with the Reds until he has a chance to see what his market value is. And if I'm his agent, I keep showing him the numbers and dollars that the older, less talented Carlos Lee signed for.