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View Full Version : Prospect: NL Pitchers for 2008 - Cueto #1



kheidg-
09-20-2007, 12:29 AM
Johnny Cueto RHP Reds One of the fastest rising prospects of the season, Cueto gives the Reds four legitimate top 20 prospects by teaming with Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, and Joey Votto. A diminutive right-hander signed out of the Dominican Republic, Cueto showed up on prospect radars after an encouraging 2006 campaign split between Single-A Dayton and High-A Sarasota. However, Cueto looked even better this season, getting off to a fast start for Sarasota and eventually moving to Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville. The results were impressive throughout, as Cueto finished with a 3.07 ERA and 170/34 K/BB ratio in 161 1/3 innings. That he had little problem adjusting to new levels and was succeeding at Triple-A at the age of 21 made for quite the impression.

Cueto's impressive debut is fully backed by his repertoire of pitches. His fastball sits in the low-90s but can reach as high as 96 and he commands the pitch exceptionally well. Cueto also has a very good slider and a changeup that's already a plus pitch despite learning to throw it only two years ago. The right-hander is listed at just 5'10' and there are thus some concerns about his durability, but it hasn't been an issue thus far. Cueto should settle in as a fine No. 2 starter, and I wouldn't rule out a career as a true ace. His three-pitch repertoire is that impressive, and his command is also exceptional.

Holding Cueto back is that he's a flyball pitcher who gets punished hard when he makes a mistake. It's a style that could be ill-suited for Great American Ballpark, but that he'll be pitching in the National League should help even things out. Since he's had just four starts at the level, the Reds will likely send Cueto back to Triple-A Louisville to begin the 2008 campaign. However, the Reds lack depth in their rotation and a quick start should get Cueto promoted in short order. Based on his combination of talent, readiness for the majors, and proximity to a full-time gig, he's the NL's best pitching prospect for 2008.

From rotoworld

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=3&articleid=29001

RedsMightWin
09-20-2007, 12:40 AM
Trade him!

Kinda kidding

Screwball
09-20-2007, 12:59 AM
Wow, I love hearing this kind of stuff.

I wonder when the last time was that the Reds simultaneously had the best pitching and position player prospects in baseball. Finally, there's light at the end of the tunnel.

RedEye
09-20-2007, 01:02 AM
Nice link! I guess Homer doesn't still qualify as a prospect since he's already had a cup of coffee or two... otherwise, I think you could legitimately say the Reds have the best position player and the TWO best pitching prospects in the game. Wow is right!

kheidg-
09-20-2007, 12:15 PM
Yes, I agree. Cueto and Bruce will likely start next season in AAA but by the end of the year I can see all 4 of the Reds top prospects with the club. A 2009 rotation of...

Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Cueto

would be very nice. Although, I could see Arroyo getting traded sometime next year, his salary increases significantly after next season.

JaxRed
09-20-2007, 01:01 PM
Nice link! I guess Homer doesn't still qualify as a prospect since he's already had a cup of coffee or two... otherwise, I think you could legitimately say the Reds have the best position player and the TWO best pitching prospects in the game. Wow is right!

Homer does count as prospect and article states Reds have 4 Top 20's including Homer....

dthomas24
09-20-2007, 01:33 PM
I think you could legitimately say the Reds have the best position player and the TWO best pitching prospects in the game.

Big change from years past and great to see. Are all of these guys products of the Dan O'Brien era?

RedEye
09-20-2007, 01:33 PM
Homer does count as prospect and article states Reds have 4 Top 20's including Homer....

Ah yes, I missed that line of the article...

Anyway, would it be an exaggeration to say that the Reds have the top two P prospects in baseball? Who would the others be in the conversation? Chamberlain? Kennedy? Gio Gonazalez? Clay Bucholz?

fearofpopvol1
09-20-2007, 01:48 PM
Big change from years past and great to see. Are all of these guys products of the Dan O'Brien era?

I'm kind of interested to into how he was acquired? I'm sure someone can shed some light.

redsmetz
09-20-2007, 03:41 PM
I'm kind of interested to into how he was acquired? I'm sure someone can shed some light.

I believe we signed him out of one of the Latin American camps.

RedsManRick
09-20-2007, 04:22 PM
From today's BP chat with Bryan Smith. (yes, RedsManRick = TheRedsMan)



TheRedsMan (Chicago): Let's say that Bailey doesn't do anything noteworthy tonight or the rest of the year -- in either direction. Does Johnny Cueto pass him up on the prospect rankings?

Bryan Smith: Not for me. I really liked Bailey when he had that "down" year in Dayton, and I really, really liked him after last season. This year was discouraging, certainly, but I don't think Cueto is there yet. I wouldn't gamble that Bailey ends up with the better career, but his ceiling is still higher, and I give him the edge.

lollipopcurve
09-20-2007, 05:44 PM
I'm kind of interested to into how he was acquired? I'm sure someone can shed some light.

Johnny Almaraz get credit for Cueto.

GoReds33
09-20-2007, 05:47 PM
Johnny Almaraz get credit for Cueto.Almarez signed him after he went and saw him pitch after someone gave him a tip on Cueto. I wish the Reds would hire whoever that was.:)

OnBaseMachine
09-20-2007, 06:55 PM
Johnny Cueto.

What a cool name. It just sounds like a dominant pitcher.

Prf15
09-20-2007, 07:45 PM
Johnny Cueto.

What a cool name. It just sounds like a dominant pitcher.

And Homer Bailey is the opposite......

dougdirt
09-20-2007, 07:48 PM
And Homer Bailey is the opposite......

I bet Bailey has a good game tonight, regardless of his name.

Superdude
09-20-2007, 10:37 PM
Anyway, would it be an exaggeration to say that the Reds have the top two P prospects in baseball? Who would the others be in the conversation? Chamberlain? Kennedy? Gio Gonazalez? Clay Bucholz?

Clayton Kershaw.

Eric_Davis
09-20-2007, 10:46 PM
They suspect that he may have durability issues because he's listed at 5'10"? What a bonehead statement. I imagine that half of the Hall-of-Fame pitchers and 70% of the pitchers before 1940 were 5'10" or less.

Height has nothing to do with durability in any sport. I can't believe they said that.

What is encouraging is that we have a 21 year old at the AAA level who's threw for 170 innings last year and performed well, regardless of how many pitches he has.

The organization doesn't have many starters at the High-A Level and above that have thrown for a lot of innings and performed well. Cueto is a Diamond in this organization.

edabbs44
09-20-2007, 11:26 PM
Yes, I agree. Cueto and Bruce will likely start next season in AAA but by the end of the year I can see all 4 of the Reds top prospects with the club. A 2009 rotation of...

Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Cueto

would be very nice. Although, I could see Arroyo getting traded sometime next year, his salary increases significantly after next season.

Wayne is the one who signed him to that salary increase. I can't see him getting traded because of it.

mlbfan30
09-20-2007, 11:35 PM
Considering how high the Free agent market is, I think we should do what the Tigers did. Let all the kids play whether they are good or not. Then next off season when some of the bigger FA's are out we can sign some of those and get a very competitive team for 2009.

2008 Rotation :
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Cueto
Malony

1B - Votto
2B - BP
SS - Keppinger (Trade Alex)
3B - EE
LF - Griffey
CF - Bruce
RF - Dunn
C - Ross

If we don't lock Dunn longterm we trade him mid season to allow Hamilton to play everyday. If Dunn is signed longterm then Hamilton is the 4th OF (he's never healthy anyway) and will start in 2009 when Jr's not here.

EddieMilner
09-21-2007, 09:28 AM
If we don't lock Dunn longterm we trade him mid season to allow Hamilton to play everyday. If Dunn is signed longterm then Hamilton is the 4th OF (he's never healthy anyway) and will start in 2009 when Jr's not here.

I would rather have Hamilton down in Louisville if he isn't going to play everyday. It seems like he needs to get regular at bats with only 1 full season in the past 4 or 5 years. Can Hamilton play in Louisville next year since he was a Rule 5? I think the rule is that he only had to be on the Major League roster for the 2007 season.

JaxRed
09-21-2007, 12:00 PM
Hamilton will be playing everyday.

BEETTLEBUG
09-21-2007, 01:23 PM
That is True JAX RED he will play every day either in Cincy or Triple AAA. Rule 5 was just 2007.

mlbfan30
09-21-2007, 02:08 PM
I wasn't sure whether he could play at AAA or not.
Bruce NEEDS to play everyday at the ML level.
Dunn is obviously not someone who should get benched.
Griffey is still productive and you can't sit him.
Hamilton has no starting spot for this year unless someone gets injured, but he will be starting in 2009.
Hamilton at SS? just a thought....
If he can go from A to ML after sitting for 4 years, then why not see if he can learn SS in 6 months?

texasdave
09-21-2007, 02:14 PM
I wasn't sure whether he could play at AAA or not.
Bruce NEEDS to play everyday at the ML level.
Dunn is obviously not someone who should get benched.
Griffey is still productive and you can't sit him.
Hamilton has no starting spot for this year unless someone gets injured, but he will be starting in 2009.
Hamilton at SS? just a thought....
If he can go from A to ML after sitting for 4 years, then why not see if he can learn SS in 6 months?

Lefties don't play SS, do they? I can't recall ever seeing one.
Of course most days, by noon, I can't recall what I had for breakfast. :)

nate
09-21-2007, 02:25 PM
Lefties don't play SS, do they? I can't recall ever seeing one.
Of course most days, by noon, I can't recall what I had for breakfast. :)

Only two southpaw-throwing players have ever done it...and for a combined 11 games.



Cnt Player Year Age Tm
+----+-----------------+----+---+---+
1 Milo Netzel 1909 23 CLE
2 Russ Hall 1901 29 CLE

kheidg-
09-21-2007, 03:02 PM
Hamilton will be starting in the outfield if healthy. Bruce will start the season in AAA.

GoReds33
09-21-2007, 04:53 PM
I wasn't sure whether he could play at AAA or not.
Bruce NEEDS to play everyday at the ML level.
Dunn is obviously not someone who should get benched.
Griffey is still productive and you can't sit him.
Hamilton has no starting spot for this year unless someone gets injured, but he will be starting in 2009.
Hamilton at SS? just a thought....
If he can go from A to ML after sitting for 4 years, then why not see if he can learn SS in 6 months?If the Reds have the faith that I do in Hamilton they will trade Junior. Then we would be much better defensivly, and not that much worse offensivly. 19 homers in 298 ABs isn't bad whatsoever. I understand his durability issues, but with a full offseason of training he should be much more durable. I could see him hitting .280 with 35 homers next year. If he did that he would be equal or better than Griffey offensivly too.

kheidg-
09-21-2007, 05:30 PM
If the Reds have the faith that I do in Hamilton they will trade Junior. Then we would be much better defensivly, and not that much worse offensivly. 19 homers in 298 ABs isn't bad whatsoever. I understand his durability issues, but with a full offseason of training he should be much more durable. I could see him hitting .280 with 35 homers next year. If he did that he would be equal or better than Griffey offensivly too.

People, this thread was originally about Johnny Cueto. Bring the Junior talk to one of the other 100 threads dedicated to him.

This thread is about Johnny Cueto and his chances in 2008. Eeeeek.

kheidg-
09-21-2007, 05:32 PM
I bet Bailey has a good game tonight, regardless of his name.

Good call. But I think I'd also have to say that Bailey will have a better career than Cueto. Yet, anything can happen and I haven't seen Cueto pitch much.

dougdirt
09-21-2007, 06:08 PM
Good call. But I think I'd also have to say that Bailey will have a better career than Cueto. Yet, anything can happen and I haven't seen Cueto pitch much.

I would take Bailey's career over Cueto's as well. Nothing against Cueto, I just think Homer is on a slightly different level than Johnny is.

SMcGavin
09-21-2007, 08:39 PM
So, I assume Cueto starts in AAA next year? What are the chances of him getting the call at some point in 08? Barring a major shakeup of the rotation this year I'd say it's pretty likely Cueto sees the Reds rotation by the trading deadline. Thoughts?

RedsMightWin
09-21-2007, 08:50 PM
Rick Sweet said it could be a Bailey type situation. Half a year in AAA and up to the majors.

kheidg-
09-21-2007, 11:08 PM
So, I assume Cueto starts in AAA next year? What are the chances of him getting the call at some point in 08? Barring a major shakeup of the rotation this year I'd say it's pretty likely Cueto sees the Reds rotation by the trading deadline. Thoughts?

I'd have to agree with you that Cueto will start the year in AAA.

However, the Reds could do worse by signing someone along the likes of Kyle Lohse to take a spot in the rotation.

I wouldn't be opposed to having him start in the rotation but I'd have to think that he will be one of the first call ups in case of injury, unless he struggles to start the year.

GoReds33
09-21-2007, 11:12 PM
People, this thread was originally about Johnny Cueto. Bring the Junior talk to one of the other 100 threads dedicated to him.

This thread is about Johnny Cueto and his chances in 2008. Eeeeek.
I'm sorry. It was just the first thing that popped into my head.

How bout that Cueto though? He's a beast.:)

AmarilloRed
09-22-2007, 04:06 PM
I'd have to agree with you that Cueto will start the year in AAA.

However, the Reds could do worse by signing someone along the likes of Kyle Lohse to take a spot in the rotation.

I wouldn't be opposed to having him start in the rotation but I'd have to think that he will be one of the first call ups in case of injury, unless he struggles to start the year.

What about Carlos Silva? Should we try and see if we can get him to a 1-2 year deal?

RedsMightWin
09-22-2007, 04:15 PM
Silva for a 2 year deal might be alright. Depends on if hes going to get 4 to 5 million or 8 to 9. He has been a innings eater the last few years so thats nice.

PuffyPig
09-22-2007, 10:47 PM
They suspect that he may have durability issues because he's listed at 5'10"? What a bonehead statement. I imagine that half of the Hall-of-Fame pitchers and 70% of the pitchers before 1940 were 5'10" or less.

Height has nothing to do with durability in any sport. I can't believe they said that.



If you look at the stats of shorter pitchers over the last 20 or so years, you'll find that they are less durable.

Before 1940 everyone was shorter

dougdirt
09-23-2007, 02:42 AM
If you look at the stats of shorter pitchers over the last 20 or so years, you'll find that they are less durable.

Before 1940 everyone was shorter

Thats not true. THT did a study on this. What they came to the conclusion of, is that skinny pitchers tend to break down more often than thicker pitchers, but that height had very little to do with anything.

kheidg-
09-23-2007, 11:03 PM
A big enthusiastic NO to Silva. He is horrible.

Put Cueto in the rotation if we are that desperate.

gedred69
09-24-2007, 07:54 PM
Thats not true. THT did a study on this. What they came to the conclusion of, is that skinny pitchers tend to break down more often than thicker pitchers, but that height had very little to do with anything.

Pedro is listed as being 5'11", 170 lbs. Having seen him up close I'd be surprised if 5"11" is accurate, in fact, I was stunned by how "diminuitive" he is. Until the last two years he has been durable. It's a technique as well as a physical thing, some guys pitch so as to not hurt themselves, or are just put together in such a way as to be durable. If Cueto could be another Pedro for anything similar to 15 years, I would wear a smile so big for so long that my face would hurt :):)

Will M
09-25-2007, 02:36 PM
A big enthusiastic NO to Silva. He is horrible.

Put Cueto in the rotation if we are that desperate.

I agree. plus Silva will get a deal like Marquis, Meche, etc.

If the Reds want to compete in 2008 they need to turn their excess outfielder/1B players into a #3 starter who is as good as Arroyo. Then Bailey-Belisle-Shearns-etc can fill out the 4/5 slots. Cueto starts 2008 in AAA.

Note - The only free agent starter on the market who fits this mold is Schilling and I can't see him coming to the Reds.
However I would be happy to see the Reds give him a one year deal at say $15M rather than pay Silva 4 yrs/$40M.
Lieber is another guy who would likely take a 1 year deal.
The Reds will have to overpay to get quality free agents to come here but overpaying on a 1 year deal beats overpaying on a 3-4 year deal.

podgejeff_
09-25-2007, 05:07 PM
^^^I agree. I'd much rather overpay for one year of Curt Schilling (and the fans he'd bring to the ballpark) as opposed to overpaying for multiple years of a lesser pitcher. This would also allow us to give Cueto and maybe Bailey (if needed) a little more time as opposed to rushing them up. If they don't need the time then they can take Shearn and Belisle's spots.

RedsMightWin
09-25-2007, 06:16 PM
^^^I agree. I'd much rather overpay for one year of Curt Schilling (and the fans he'd bring to the ballpark) as opposed to overpaying for multiple years of a lesser pitcher. This would also allow us to give Cueto and maybe Bailey (if needed) a little more time as opposed to rushing them up. If they don't need the time then they can take Shearn and Belisle's spots.

I think everyone that mentioned Silva would take Schilling for 1 year no matter what the cost.

WebScorpion
10-04-2007, 10:40 AM
I'm very excited by everything I hear about Johnny Cueto. It sounds like he's the total package, raw stuff, control, AND a pitcher's head. This makes me even more anxious to sign Greg Maddux...if Cueto can add a plus circle change to his repertoire from working with Mario Soto, I'd love to see what he can learn from Maddux. He sounds as if he has the tools to become a Maddux-type pitcher. No matter what, I'm looking forward to my first sight of this kid on the mound...sounds like it will be a special treat. :thumbup:

fearofpopvol1
10-08-2007, 08:46 PM
How long do you think before he's with the Reds? Any chance he makes the rotation out of ST?

Degenerate39
10-08-2007, 10:19 PM
How long do you think before he's with the Reds? Any chance he makes the rotation out of ST?

I think the Reds could bring him up mid-season. If they don't sign any free agents in the offseason then I think he has a good chance of starting the year off with the Reds. At least I hope he starts the year out with the Reds.

AmarilloRed
10-08-2007, 10:42 PM
I expect he will be in spring training, start in AAA and spend half a season there, and then join the Reds shortly after the All-Star Break.

kheidg-
10-13-2007, 01:59 PM
They likely will not want to "rush" him but he would probably be a better option than anyone else they are going to throw out there for the 5 spot.