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WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 12:53 AM
Folks, this just isn't working.

Tonight with the game 0-0, Pete brings in Bill Bray. I know there's a lot of folks on this board and none other than Wayne Krivsky who think Bray is the bomb. Same with Gary Majewski. He followed Bray after he allowed two hits and an intentional walk. After a hard line drive went for an out, the next batter gets a broken bat single to win the game for the Giants. That was just before George Grande said that Krivsky expects Bray and Majewski to "anchor" the bullpen next year. God help us.

In the last 10 games they've pitched in, they have collectedly pitched 14 innings, giving up 19 hits and 15 earned runs. Wow. It's either Krivsky ego refuses to admit that his prized pick-ups are not that great (remember when we got Bray and Guardado back we would be fine), or he is no judge of talent. Whatever.

I don't want Kearns or Lopez back, but Kearns playing right might be better than Ellison or Coats, but that's neither here nor there. There's a lot of work to be done on our bullpen and I hope Krivsky isn't hoping that the answer is Bray and Majewski. If he thinks that we are more than doomed.

pedro
09-23-2007, 01:20 AM
Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.

Aronchis
09-23-2007, 01:22 AM
Bray's successes in the minors had more to due with a crafty than a electric arm. His location has been horrid since his return.

I saw Ty Pelland on tv pitching late in the year with the Bats, he had a clearly more electric arm.

Bray's got some work to do over the Holidays.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 01:43 AM
Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.

Heck, I don't know anything about pitching other than the results. The results are clearly not good and this is over a period of time. His career in Cincinnati has been spotty and you can't take minor league statistics as proof of success in the major leagues. The truth is, he is very hittble and has horrible location so far. Tonight, he and Majewski were laying it over the middle of the plate with the obvious results. And this against a team who simply is clueless about hitting MLB pitching. What separates Bray from Stanton? Not much because the results are basically the same.

It matters not, the point of my post was to say that if these two guys are the anchors of the bullpen, I don't want to see the other relievers Krivsky will bring in. You can argue "potential" or "mechanics" or whatever in the world you want, but what happens between the lines is all that matters. On that point, these guys stink up the place and I don't expect much better because all I've seen is what we saw tonight.

Patrick Bateman
09-23-2007, 01:53 AM
Heck, I don't know anything about pitching other than the results. The results are clearly not good and this is over a period of time. His career in Cincinnati has been spotty and you can't take minor league statistics as proof of success in the major leagues. The truth is, he is very hittble and has horrible location so far. Tonight, he and Majewski were laying it over the middle of the plate with the obvious results. And this against a team who simply is clueless about hitting MLB pitching. What separates Bray from Stanton? Not much because the results are basically the same.



Again, it's 12 innings. You can't look at a sample of that size and make a fair comparison to a guy like Stanton who has been putrid for quite some time.

You say he's hittable, but in his 12 innings he has a K/9 of 9.00, in the minors 13.74. I wouldn't call that hittable. He has a K/BB of 3.00. I'm not suggesting Bray is all god worthy right now or anything, but he hasn't been bad so far. His BAPIP now is over .380, so his struggles are mainly due to bad luck and bad defense. Provided a bigger sample size, it's a virtual lock that his numbers could be credible, and even above average.

I agree with Aronchis that Bray isn't really electric. His success is mainly because he does have 2 good pitches. Nothing that completely wows you, but good enough to get swings and misses. However, his stuff needs to be complimented with reasonable control to be effective. And I think that's his key in the long run. I don't think he has good enough raw stuff to basically get by on that alone. That's the main reason I see him as a set-up man, and not a closer down the road, but he is promising.

M2
09-23-2007, 02:07 AM
Bray's young and lefty and he can make hitters miss a bit. I don't know that he'll ever be a stud, but he's certainly worth keeping around for the time being. Majewski needs to go away, permanently.

fearofpopvol1
09-23-2007, 02:15 AM
I think it's too early to call either a complete bust. Neither have had an entire season where they've been healthy pitching for the Reds.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 02:17 AM
Again, it's 12 innings. You can't look at a sample of that size and make a fair comparison to a guy like Stanton who has been putrid for quite some time.

You say he's hittable, but in his 12 innings he has a K/9 of 9.00, in the minors 13.74. I wouldn't call that hittable. He has a K/BB of 3.00. I'm not suggesting Bray is all god worthy right now or anything, but he hasn't been bad so far. His BAPIP now is over .380, so his struggles are mainly due to bad luck and bad defense. Provided a bigger sample size, it's a virtual lock that his numbers could be credible, and even above average.

I agree with Aronchis that Bray isn't really electric. His success is mainly because he does have 2 good pitches. Nothing that completely wows you, but good enough to get swings and misses. However, his stuff needs to be complimented with reasonable control to be effective. And I think that's his key in the long run. I don't think he has good enough raw stuff to basically get by on that alone. That's the main reason I see him as a set-up man, and not a closer down the road, but he is promising.

AK, I think we agree somewhat. My only point is there is the lack of performance in the situation a player gets in . Yes, bray has only pitched 12.1 innings this year, but he's allowed 16 hits in that time. That's unbelievable. The statistics on his K/9 mean nothing when he actually comes into a game and allows 1.3 hits per inning pitched and something like a run. All the fancy statistics in the world will not mask that you do not bring this guy in with runners on. they're going to score (of course, he let his partner from Washington do that for him tonight). I look more at what he's trying to do while he's pitching. While he's [pitched, he allows grat numbers to get on base and since he's allowed 10 earned runs in those innings (and against the Giants, no less), it jut says to me that he is no savior no matter what Wayne Krivsky says about him. He's young and will get better (I hope), but for now, I think it's safe to say that he is a below averae pitcher who may never get any better. Of course, that's opinion, but I'm not one to look at horse manure and call it barbeque. No matter what some statistics says. Unlucky or lucky doesn't matter. The turth is he allowed 10 runs in 12 innings and that's winand losses which is all that matters. Yes, he has a lot of work to do, but I don't see him improving.

Of course, that's purely opinion and not based on statistics other than his record as a Red.

Kc61
09-23-2007, 02:18 AM
Bray's year has been a washout. Never really had spring training, constant injury, basically rehabbing most of the year. I think he deserves a winter off to get healthy and a full spring training before we form any conclusions. Right now he's ineffective, but it's hard to judge him after all the injuries this year.

I'd be surprised if Krivsky was really counting heavily on either of these guys for next year. Frankly, I think the Reds need to re-sign Guardado. Guardado seems to be returning to good form, based on his last few outings. Besides Eddy, Burton, and Weathers, all the Reds relievers are question marks IMO.

The Reds have a lot of relievers and will acquire more. A critical part of having a winner next year is for the team to evaluate them properly and keep those who will be effective. It shouldn't matter how they were acquired, what their contract is, how they did for other teams in the past.

The Reds should also consider promoting Pelland, Roenicke, Viola or Guevera if they show well this winter and spring. Again, there is much quantity in the pen, the trick is identifying the effective guys, and being bold enough to say goodbye to those who aren't working out.

RedsManRick
09-23-2007, 02:30 AM
es, bray has only pitched 12.1 innings this year, but he's allowed 16 hits in that time. That's unbelievable.

Actually, that's fully believable. In fact, that's the entire point of the sample size issue. Within a given stretch of 12.1 IP, nearly anything is believable. And that thing which happens tells us very little about all the other innings that pitcher has or will pitched.

In one 12 inning stretch, JJ Putz had an ERA over 6.00 and a WHIP over 1.40. Not a big deal perhaps until you consider his ridiculous 1.34 ERA and 0.672 WHIP for the season.

I agree, I don't think Bray is great shakes. However, you can't accept the premise that it's only 12 IP and then use the numbers he put in that the time against him. I guess maybe it's enough to make us second guess the scouting evaluation, but it really tells us nothing about how he's going to pitch over the long haul. It's frustrating, but we just can't extrapolate from that sample.

Just a standard case of confirmation bias. I'm not saying he's going to be good, just that this year's 12 IP doesn't tell us much of anything at all.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 02:38 AM
Bray's year has been a washout. Never really had spring training, constant injury, basically rehabbing most of the year. I think he deserves a winter off to get healthy and a full spring training before we form any conclusions. Right now he's ineffective, but it's hard to judge him after all the injuries this year.

I'll give you that. But what I noticed tonight (and this was really the first time I was in the frame of mind to do this), was his location was horrible. Pitches that might have been out pitches in AAA were hit hard. He needs big-time instruction and I'm not sure he can get it with our current "teaching" staff.


I'd be surprised if Krivsky was really counting heavily on either of these guys for next year. Frankly, I think the Reds need to re-sign Guardado. Guardado seems to be returning to good form, based on his last few outings. Besides Eddy, Burton, and Weathers, all the Reds relievers are question marks IMO.

I totally agree ecept the part about Krivisky not counting on those guys. If he is not, he's lying and I don't appreciate that. I'll agree that Eddie needs to come back, but not at the salary he expects. His velocity is improving and for what's it worth, he's a rah-rah guy sorely needed on this team.


The Reds have a lot of relievers and will acquire more. A critical part of having a winner next year is for the team to evaluate them properly and keep those who will be effective. It shouldn't matter how they were acquired, what their contract is, how they did for other teams in the past.

That's the problem, IMHO. The evaluation seems to be less than adequate. Krivsky seems to look at past performance and no matter what happens afterward, he sticks with it. What sane manager would put Stanton in a game with is performance in the present? If not for ego, Majewski might have been DFA'd and the same goes for Cromier and Santos. Given the fact that he acquired them, what other explanation is there? Macklanin seems like a thinking man's manager, and I find the use of Stanton and the others a little suspect. Call me paranoid.


The Reds should also consider promoting Pelland, Roenicke, Viola or Guevera if they show well this winter and spring. Again, there is much quantity in the pen, the trick is identifying the effective guys, and being bold enough to say goodbye to those who aren't working out.
But will they? I look at Krivsky as a trash can guy. He picks guys off the trash heep and hopes they do well. In my business we call it throwing at the wall to see if it sticks. How else can you explain the acquisition of Coats and Ellison when Jay Bruce waits in the minors? He can identify a Beandon Phillips, Josh Hamilton, or a Branson Arroyo, but can't see how hopeless a Mike Stanton or a Majewski is. It's a real concern to me.

Topcat
09-23-2007, 06:22 AM
Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.


According to some you can though Pedro ;)

GAC
09-23-2007, 06:57 AM
Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.

Yep.


Heck, I don't know anything about pitching other than the results.

Not denying Bray's struggles at times in this second half, but the game was won on broken bat single. Don't know if I want to fault Bray for that. Dumb luck?

He's 24 yrs old and only been back with the team about 5 weeks.

Lets don't label him a complete wash as of yet.


I don't want Kearns or Lopez back, but Kearns playing right might be better than Ellison or Coats

Respectfully, you're not making sense here WV. If we had retained Kearns, who is making 3.5 Mil/yr, where was Griffey, who is our RFer, gonna play? You're gonna pay Kearns that kind of money to sit the bench maybe, and hope to get playing time?

And you actually believe that WK entertains visions or Ellison or Coats being regular starters in our OF? Ellison has spent his career as a utility player/backup in SF (for Bonds) and then in Seattle. He was serving the same role in those places, then released, that he is serving in Cincy. And the reason why WK picked him up off the waiver wire at all was because two of our OFers were fighting injury (Freel and Hamilton).

And I bet Ellison is released after the season. And, to the best of my understanding, we aren't paying Coat's salary this year. The Cubs are.

That is the only reason they are here - they came very cheap and we needed the backup. Nothing more.

mth123
09-23-2007, 07:37 AM
I'm actually more concerned about Weathers crashing down than the guys in the middle. A bullpen is only as good as its 8th and 9th inning guys IMO and I'm still not convinced that Weathers will do it again. This year the trouble was mostly from Coffey's collapse and the team being left with too many 6th and 7th inning guys (a couple of whom were/are well past the expiration date) trying to fill the 8th inning (or more appropriately key out) role. I think Coffey was being counted on for that role

The problem is more one of subtraction IMO. Majewski, Saarloos and Stanton and the wretched innings they give must go. Coffey needs to shape up (in many senses of the word) or he needs to go too. (I am actually hopeful that Coffey can still be a 7th and 8th inning plus).

I'd like to see Weathers sent off in a package for young starting help, a top closer who can be the anchor for the next 3 or 4 years signed and one other underutilized bat misser (Wuertz for example) acquired in a deal somehow.

A solid closer with Burton, New Bat Misser, Bray, Coutlangus and one of the starter pack who is kept around for long relief should be ok. The last spot should be a competition between McBeth, Salmon, Coffey if he shapes up, Pelland, Roenicke, Guevara etc.

I could also see Sean Watson converted back to relief and he could come fast if so. I haven't lost hope at all as far as he is concerned.

Ltlabner
09-23-2007, 07:47 AM
Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.

Sure you can Pedro. It's fun!

But in all serriousness, with Bray's K rate, I'm really not going to fret after 12 whole innings. I don't think he'll be God-like, but I think he can be effective.

Majic...well.....I guess ditching the John Wilkes Booth look didn't do the trick.

Ltlabner
09-23-2007, 07:54 AM
Wow. It's either Krivsky ego refuses to admit that his prized pick-ups are not that great.

Or it could be that Weathers is usually saved for the end of the game (right or wong).

Or that Burton can't pitch every inning of every save situation.

Or that Cooter was over-pitched early in the season so he you can't really bring him out for every other at bat.

Or that Stanton and Sarrloos are disasters.

Or that Coffey's been unable to get the job done.

Or that they want Bray to get more innings in since he's only had 12 innings this year.

edabbs44
09-23-2007, 08:00 AM
On 9/3, a thread was started on this board asking "Are you as impressed with Bray as I am", or something to that effect. Since then, he has let up 8 ER in 3 innings.

Just thought that was funny, since that thread was cool to talk about after 9 innings.

You are allowed to evaluate how someone is performing even after one AB, inning or relief appearance. If they don't impress you, they just don't impress you. Bray hasn't really given Cincy fans anything to be happy about. It's pretty sad up to this point.

oneupper
09-23-2007, 08:16 AM
Really. The REDS are fighting for what? Third place? Perhaps?

Perfect time to throw guys like these into a game, even in a "tight" situation. It doesn't matter. Better to find out if they suck now than in April 2008.

They're still minimum or slightly above salary guys, I believe with options left. So no big deal.


On the other hand:

Felipe Lopez: $3.900.000
Austin Kearns: $3.500.000 in 2007. $5.000.000 in 2008. $8.000.000 in 2009

Getting rid of those salaries while putting BETTER and Cheaper players on the field:

PRICELESS

Falls City Beer
09-23-2007, 10:08 AM
Actually, that's fully believable. In fact, that's the entire point of the sample size issue. Within a given stretch of 12.1 IP, nearly anything is believable. And that thing which happens tells us very little about all the other innings that pitcher has or will pitched.

In one 12 inning stretch, JJ Putz had an ERA over 6.00 and a WHIP over 1.40. Not a big deal perhaps until you consider his ridiculous 1.34 ERA and 0.672 WHIP for the season.

I agree, I don't think Bray is great shakes. However, you can't accept the premise that it's only 12 IP and then use the numbers he put in that the time against him. I guess maybe it's enough to make us second guess the scouting evaluation, but it really tells us nothing about how he's going to pitch over the long haul. It's frustrating, but we just can't extrapolate from that sample.

Just a standard case of confirmation bias. I'm not saying he's going to be good, just that this year's 12 IP doesn't tell us much of anything at all.

I think it's confirmation bias that so many have listed Bray as a lock for next year--what is that based on? It certainly can't be based on his MLB performance to date, and not just this season either.

I see a guy who's prone to injury, has one very good pitch that he can't throw regularly for a strike, and a decent fastball, and whose success at retiring hitters has been spotty to say the least.

If you aren't a total agnostic about Bray's abilities then you are really biased--you believe that Bray MUST represent something because of what the Reds surrendered to get him.

I see a mammoth question mark. And that's being kind.

Falls City Beer
09-23-2007, 10:10 AM
Really. The REDS are fighting for what? Third place? Perhaps?

Perfect time to throw guys like these into a game, even in a "tight" situation. It doesn't matter. Better to find out if they suck now than in April 2008.

They're still minimum or slightly above salary guys, I believe with options left. So no big deal.


On the other hand:

Felipe Lopez: $3.900.000
Austin Kearns: $3.500.000 in 2007. $5.000.000 in 2008. $8.000.000 in 2009

Getting rid of those salaries while putting BETTER and Cheaper players on the field:

PRICELESS

I can't argue that the Reds have gotten cheaper. But better? Come on.

RedsManRick
09-23-2007, 10:54 AM
I think it's confirmation bias that so many have listed Bray as a lock for next year--what is that based on? It certainly can't be based on his MLB performance to date, and not just this season either.

I see a guy who's prone to injury, has one very good pitch that he can't throw regularly for a strike, and a decent fastball, and whose success at retiring hitters has been spotty to say the least.

If you aren't a total agnostic about Bray's abilities then you are really biased--you believe that Bray MUST represent something because of what the Reds surrendered to get him.

I see a mammoth question mark. And that's being kind.

I'm not sure if this is directed to me or anybody else in particular, but I don't believe Bray is a "lock". I believe he's a guy who's major and minor league record of performance, age, and scouting reports suggest will likely be a productive part of a bullpen.

I not handing him the keys and walking away, but when I consider all the evidence available for all the of the bullpen candidates we'll be considering, I think it's very likely that Bray will be in our pen next year.

You can use whatever sample you want to evaluate a player. But the larger the sample size you use, the more likely it is that your sample will accurately help you project the future correctly -- I don't mean that strictly in terms of statistics, but any evidence of any kind.

Bray definitely has a lot of room to improve, particularly in terms of control. He may leave an impression based on some he's done this year, but that doesn't mean your impression should play a large role in making a decision about his future. This isn't black or white, we don't have to either coronate or dismiss him. If all you are doing is saying how confident or not-confident you feel in him, then by all means use whatever evidence you want. But if you're trying to make a decision about whether or not he's on the roster, I would recommend using a bit more.

westofyou
09-23-2007, 11:00 AM
Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.

Sure you can, if you avoid every level of astute examination of the game and its numerous nuances.

It's tre Redszone.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2007, 12:31 PM
I've seen enough of Majewski to know that he stinks. It wouldn't bother me one bit if they released him tomorrow. Billy Bray, however, I like him. Yeah he has struggled but I still like his stuff. Like M2 said, he's young, lefty, and he can make hitters swing and miss at a nice rate. I don't think he'll ever be BJ Ryan or Billy Wagner but I do think he can and will be a solid reliever for years to come.

pedro
09-23-2007, 12:41 PM
This is from today's NY Times.

I hardly think the Reds are alone in their difficulties with relief pitching
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
September 23, 2007
On Baseball
Relievers Are Specialists, All Right ... in Shoddy Finishes
By MURRAY CHASS

As if a new curse had infected the Red Sox’ relief corps, the cream of the Boston bullpen imploded three times in six days and cost the Red Sox victories they needed to stay comfortably ahead of the belated charge by the dreaded Yankees.

In a game at Fenway Park nine days ago, the Yankees erupted for six runs in the eighth inning — four against Hideki Okajima, two against Jonathan Papelbon — wiped out a 7-2 deficit and won, 8-7.

On Tuesday night, the Red Sox were in Toronto and leading, 2-1, when Eric Gagné, their prized pickup at the July 31 trading deadline, gave up three runs in the eighth inning, and the Blue Jays won, 4-3.

The next night, Russ Adams whacked a grand slam against Papelbon in the eighth inning, sealing a 6-1 Blue Jays victory.

The Red Sox’ relief corps has not been alone in performing dreadfully. There has been an epidemic of bullpen failures, with closers not immune, prompting the thought that relievers are worse than ever.

Whether they are is difficult to quantify, but one development is obvious. As starting pitchers make it through fewer and fewer innings, relievers are called on more often for more innings and are subjected to greater exposure than ever before.

Bullpens are the weak link even on pitching staffs with strong starters. Teams always try to upgrade their bullpens, but they make their moves knowing there are no guarantees and knowing most of the relievers will break their hearts.

Many were broken last week. In one game after another, relievers squandered leads, many having implications for playoff races, including those three Red Sox games.

Pat Gillick, whose role with Philadelphia is his fourth as a general manager, said relief pitching was “as bad as I’ve seen.” Starting pitching, too, he said, but that’s another story.

“A lot of it is our own fault,” Gillick said of the decline in relief pitching. “We came up with all these different situations: six-inning quality starts, situational pitchers, left-handed specialists, setup guys, closers.”

Then there’s a problem with how relievers are used. “You get them up, and they don’t pitch,” he said. “You get them up again. You wear them out.”

Mark Shapiro, the Cleveland Indians’ general manager, agreed about the fatigue factor “where fewer guys have to carry a larger proportion of the load because there are so few guys that you can count on.”

Relief pitching, Shapiro added, “is the most volatile since I’ve been around.”

Mets relievers, among others, have been volatile. They were instrumental in five losses in a seven-game stretch through Thursday.

On Aug. 9, the Mets’ relief corps had a 3.41 earned run average, the National League’s second lowest. From Aug. 10 through Thursday, the bullpen E.R.A was 5.53, dropping the Mets’ relievers to seventh in the league at 3.97.

Relievers were the losing pitchers in all three games in the Phillies’ recent sweep of the Mets at Shea Stadium.

Aaron Heilman gave up the game-deciding run in the 10th inning in the first loss. Pedro Martínez left the second game after six innings with a 3-1 lead, only for Pedro Feliciano and Jorge Sosa to give up four runs in the seventh and eighth in a 5-3 loss.

The next day, the score was 5-5 after five innings, but the Phillies erupted for five runs in the sixth against Guillermo Mota and Sosa.

Changing opponents but not bullpen disasters, the Mets went from a 4-4 tie with Washington to a 12-4 loss as Aaron Sele allowed one run, Scott Schoeneweis three, Sosa one, Willie Collazo one and Joe Smith two.

Another geographical change did not change the culprits. The Mets, thanks to a four-run ninth inning against Kevin Gregg, Florida’s closer, took a 7-4 lead, but the Marlins scored three runs against Sosa in the 9th and 10th and won, 8-7, on Thursday.

The bullpen epidemic hasn’t missed the Phillies, who have been relentlessly pressing the Mets.

Philadelphia had an 11-3 lead against St. Louis on Monday night, but the Cardinals scored five runs against Clay Condrey, one against José Mesa and two against Antonio Alfonseca for an 11-11 tie. The Phillies had built their lead with the help of five runs against reliever Anthony Reyes in an inning and a third.

The Phillies won that game, and they won the next night, too, even though their closer, Brett Myers, gave up the tying run in the 10th inning. Myers also gave up a run in the 10th inning the next night, and this time it was the game-losing run.

There were many other bullpen failures the past week, too many to chronicle here, but Jonathan Broxton figured prominently in two consecutive Dodgers losses to the Rockies, Scott Hairston’s three-run ninth-inning home run against Matt Capps gave San Diego a 5-3 victory over Pittsburgh, and Joel Zumaya squandered a 5-2 Detroit lead over Cleveland by allowing three eighth-inning runs.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2007, 12:48 PM
A guy I'd like to see the Reds target this offseason is Cla Meredith of the Padres. He's had a subpar year compared to last year but he's a guy I would love to see the Reds grab. His sidearm delivery makes his stuff nasty and he reminds me of Scott Sullivan. The Padres are loaded with relievers so they probably would trade him. I know they have always been high on Ryan Freel, so maybe the Reds can start there and add in a prospect to get him.

Patrick Bateman
09-23-2007, 12:53 PM
On 9/3, a thread was started on this board asking "Are you as impressed with Bray as I am", or something to that effect. Since then, he has let up 8 ER in 3 innings.

Just thought that was funny, since that thread was cool to talk about after 9 innings.

You are allowed to evaluate how someone is performing even after one AB, inning or relief appearance. If they don't impress you, they just don't impress you. Bray hasn't really given Cincy fans anything to be happy about. It's pretty sad up to this point.


There's a difference between not being "impressed" and having "seen enough" of a guy. Nobody is saying you can't make a stance on a guy until they reach a set sample size, but it's completely unfair to talk abput ditching a guy based on 12 innings of work.

I could totally understand people not being impressed with Bray to date. It's easy to see why that's possible. But c'mon.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 02:20 PM
There's a difference between not being "impressed" and having "seen enough" of a guy. Nobody is saying you can't make a stance on a guy until they reach a set sample size, but it's completely unfair to talk abput ditching a guy based on 12 innings of work.

I could totally understand people not being impressed with Bray to date. It's easy to see why that's possible. But c'mon.

I agree and I wasn't suggesting he be DFA'd when I started this thread. I just think he needs more seasoning.

OTOH, I am advocating that for Majewski or at least trading him for anything somewhere out of the NL Central. I think Jim Bowden knew what he was doing when he traded those two to us. I imagine he jumped for joy for hours after Wayne said, "OK."

Patrick Bateman
09-23-2007, 02:26 PM
OTOH, I am advocating that for Majewski or at least trading him for anything somewhere out of the NL Central. I think Jim Bowden knew what he was doing when he traded those two to us. I imagine he jumped for joy for hours after Wayne said, "OK."

Majewski definitely needs to go. He predictably stunk when he came here, and gets beat like a rented mule every time he takes the ball.

The Reds have seen enough of him to make an educated decision, and whatever they saw in him clearly hasn't worked, and won't in the future. It's sad that he's still being run out there in key situations like last night. He has nothing, and if it wasn't obvious when they got him, it should be now.

RedsManRick
09-23-2007, 03:19 PM
Majewski has not been good at all, but he's also been horribly unlucky. Keeping all the aforementioned sample size issues in mind...

- He's allowed just 1 walk (and 2 HBP) in 21 IP, which is obviously excellent.
- However, his 8 SO are pathetically low. There are no successful major league pitchers with a sub 4.0 K/9.
- So, given that, we can see he's put a ton of balls in play, which leads us to HR rate and BABIP.
- He's allowed 2 HR in 21 IP, or .85 HR/9, a very reasonable rate. So the problem must be with the non-homers. He's must be getting killed, right?
- Yes, his .417 BABIP is ridiculously high. This is either the result of horrible luck, or really poor pitching which is leading to him getting hit hard.
- So, is he getting hit hard? Well, his 18.2 LD% is pretty much average and his 1.77 GB/FB ratio is solid.

So, the Gary Majewski story looks like this: He's not missing any bats, but he's not walking anybody either, so lots of balls are getting hit in to play. He is keeping the ball in the yard, and the hit types against him doesn't suggest that he's being hit unusually hard. Basically, he's been really unlucky, largely due to a bad defense and a small sample size.

He absolutely needs to strikeout more guys if he's going to be effective. However, he simply isn't this bad and should not take the full blame for the amount of hits he's allowed. A more normal BABIP would put his WHIP in the 1.50 range. I wouldn't want to count on any middle reliever who relies so heavily on his defense, but given our set of options, I don't think he should necessarily be tossed on the scrap heap either. I'd go so far as to say that he and David Weathers are cut from the same cloth in terms of stuff. A look at Weathers' career numbers tells you about what you can expect long term from Majewski. Sometimes he'll have years like this, and sometimes he'll have years like Weathers' 2006/7 -- or his own 2005.

Patrick Bateman
09-23-2007, 03:28 PM
Majewski has not been good at all, but he's also been horribly unlucky. Keeping all the aforementioned sample size issues in mind...

- He's allowed just 1 walk (and 2 HBP) in 21 IP, which is obviously excellent.
- However, his 8 SO are pathetically low. There are no successful major league pitchers with a sub 4.0 K/9.
- So, given that, we can see he's put a ton of balls in play, which leads us to HR rate and BABIP.
- He's allowed 2 HR in 21 IP, or .85 HR/9, a very reasonable rate. So the problem must be with the non-homers. He's must be getting killed, right?
- Yes, his .417 BABIP is ridiculously high. This is either the result of horrible luck, or really poor pitching which is leading to him getting hit hard.
- So, is he getting hit hard? Well, his 18.2 LD% is pretty much average and his 1.77 GB/FB ratio is solid.

So, the Gary Majewski story looks like this: He's not missing any bats, but he's not walking anybody either, so lots of balls are getting hit in to play. He is keeping the ball in the yard, and the hit types against him doesn't suggest that he's being hit unusually hard. Basically, he's been really unlucky, largely due to a bad defense and a small sample size.

He absolute needs to strikeout more guys if he's going to be effective. However, he simply isn't this bad. I don't know how that squares with the scouting report. I wouldn't want to count on any middle reliever who can't miss bats, but given our set of options, I don't think he should necessarily be tossed on the scrap heap either.


This is all true. Nobody is really this bad. Even Majewski.

With equal luck, Majewski should probably be putting up ERA's around 5.00. The amount of balls in play are going to lead to way too many homers (even though he gets a decent amount of groundballs), and until now Maj has never really illustrated great command. Even now he's seemingly just aiming for the middle of the plate (pitch to contact!).

He's really no better than all of the other crap being thown out there. He can compete for the las few spots with the other guys of his kind, but the Reds can't be thinking about him as anyhting more than depth. That's all he is. It really shouldn't be difficult to find relievers better than him.

edabbs44
09-23-2007, 05:13 PM
This is from today's NY Times.

I hardly think the Reds are alone in their difficulties with relief pitching

They are alone in one sense, however, since they have the worst bullpen ERA in the NL by a rather wide margin.

Going into today, the Reds bullpen ERA is 5.16. The next worst is Houston with a 4.65.

Ouch.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 05:26 PM
So, the Gary Majewski story looks like this: He's not missing any bats, but he's not walking anybody either, so lots of balls are getting hit in to play. He is keeping the ball in the yard, and the hit types against him doesn't suggest that he's being hit unusually hard. Basically, he's been really unlucky, largely due to a bad defense and a small sample size.

I seem to remember (though I couldn't find it) where when Majewski was obtained that he was "lucky" with Washington. So, he is now unlucky. Sounds like rationalization to me (just kidding).

The result is the same. Lots of hits and allowing runs in a role where you are not supposed to. And the small sample size is there because that's all it is. To keep him around except as part of the back of the bullpen to be used when everyone is worn out would be contrary to building a contending team. Unless you want to justify a big trade, but I wouldn't think we'd do that. :rolleyes:

Kc61
09-23-2007, 05:31 PM
This is all true. Nobody is really this bad. Even Majewski.

With equal luck, Majewski should probably be putting up ERA's around 5.00. It really shouldn't be difficult to find relievers better than him.

The bullpen is where the Reds have to show if they want to win. This year, Stanton, Coffey, Maj and Saarloos have very poor numbers. If the Reds have them back, it raises questions.

As of now, I see a back end of Weathers, Burton, Guardado, and a new righty reliever. The front end (three middle guys) should come from McBeth, Salmon, Bray, Coutlangus, possibly Shearn, new guys, or Reds prospects like Pelland, Roenicke, or Viola.

RedsManRick
09-23-2007, 06:05 PM
I seem to remember (though I couldn't find it) where when Majewski was obtained that he was "lucky" with Washington. So, he is now unlucky. Sounds like rationalization to me (just kidding).

The result is the same. Lots of hits and allowing runs in a role where you are not supposed to. And the small sample size is there because that's all it is. To keep him around except as part of the back of the bullpen to be used when everyone is worn out would be contrary to building a contending team. Unless you want to justify a big trade, but I wouldn't think we'd do that. :rolleyes:

I'm not married to the idea of Majewski in our pen. But the idea that he should be DFA'd or excluded from the competition for spots based upon his performance to date as a Red is stupid. My simple point is that Majewski, in ability and expected performance moving forward, is not really better/worse than our other options for pitchers #9, 10, 11, etc.

The bullpen absolutely needs to improve, but swapping out one cheap replacement-level reliever for another isn't improvement. It's just change for the sake of it. Give me a demonstrably better alternative and I'd have no problem taking him.

mth123
09-23-2007, 06:21 PM
Maj should be on the trade bait list with Griffey, Freel, Stanton, Dumatrait, Saarloos (if he isn't DFA'd for 40 man reasons), Castro and Hatte.

They may not get what they need for these guys, but I'd be pushing them first. If the Reds need to trade younger/cheaper/better to get the necessary pitching then some portion of the above group acts as backfill for the guys moved out. The others are throw ins or DFA candidates.

Patrick Bateman
09-23-2007, 06:31 PM
The bullpen is where the Reds have to show if they want to win. This year, Stanton, Coffey, Maj and Saarloos have very poor numbers. If the Reds have them back, it raises questions.

As of now, I see a back end of Weathers, Burton, Guardado, and a new righty reliever. The front end (three middle guys) should come from McBeth, Salmon, Bray, Coutlangus, possibly Shearn, new guys, or Reds prospects like Pelland, Roenicke, or Viola.

I like Weathers, Burton, and Bray for 3 spots. After that all hell breaks loose. It should really be a wide open competition after that. But I expect a lot of new faces in the competition next year. It would be nice to add a guy to the first 3.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2007, 07:39 PM
Brad Salmon should be in the Reds bullpen next season. He's pitched well in his limited time with the Reds. Right now would be the perfect time to get him some more innings to see what he's got but, unfortunately, the Reds are letting him rot away on the bench. Here are Salmon's numbers with the Reds this season:

22.2 IP, 18 H, 3 HR, 10 BB, 21 K, 1.24 WHIP, 3.57 ERA, .658 OPSA

The guy is hard to hit AND he can make hitters swing and miss at a pretty good rate.

Marcus McBeth has also looked good since his return. In 7.1 innings in September, McBeth has allowed only 5 hits while striking out 8 batters and posting a 3.68 ERA. I think both he and Salmon could be solid relievers next season. Those two guys, along with Billy Bray, Weathers, and Burton and throw in another power arm like Tyler Pelland from the left side and maybe Josh Roenicke and the Reds have the makings of a potentially solid pen.

Patrick Bateman
09-23-2007, 07:45 PM
Ya I'd definitelyput McBeth and Salmon a step ahead of the others. They show bat missing ability, and are at the stage where they won't likely improve a whole lot. The Reds should be seeing what they can do in the majors. All things equal, I' have them in the 4 and 5 spots, and Coffey number 6. After that it's a blur.

flyer85
09-23-2007, 07:59 PM
I'd be surprised if Krivsky was really counting heavily on either of these guys for next year. Frankly, I think the Reds need to re-sign Guardado. Guardado seems to be returning to good form, EG is old with a bad arm and is an injury waiting to happen. He is exactly the wrong kind of pitcher to sign. Let someone else have the huge injury risk.

M2
09-23-2007, 08:02 PM
Just thinking out loud here, but I'd love to see what Daniel Cabrera could do as a short reliever. I was reading a recent Jason Stark column and it sounds like the Orioles and a lot of others are down on him. Might be a chance to buy cheap.

One thing to add about Majewski, Pete Mackanin hasn't used him for a full inning since 8/30. I read that as a supreme vote of no confidence. Majewski now mostly gets used when the team needs somebody quickly (e.g. when the pitcher on the mound has suffered a sudden meltdown) and Mackanin's hoping for a groundball. Last night's a good example. Bray came unglued and Majewski was the short notice option, who did himself no favors by giving up the game losing hit. I'm thinking if Mackanin sticks around then Majewski is gone.

Patrick Bateman
09-23-2007, 08:09 PM
Just thinking out loud here, but I'd love to see what Daniel Cabrera could do as a short reliever. I was reading a recent Jason Stark column and it sounds like the Orioles and a lot of others are down on him. Might be a chance to buy cheap.


Hell, even if he fails as a reliever, he would still be arguably our third best starter, if not 4th. And he's actually a good fit for our park.

Knowing his good stuff, he might thrive as a reliever, but either way the Reds could easily find a spot for him. If the price is right, I'd be willing to give Cabrera a shot somewhere.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 08:47 PM
I'm not married to the idea of Majewski in our pen. But the idea that he should be DFA'd or excluded from the competition for spots based upon his performance to date as a Red is stupid. My simple point is that Majewski, in ability and expected performance moving forward, is not really better/worse than our other options for pitchers #9, 10, 11, etc.

The bullpen absolutely needs to improve, but swapping out one cheap replacement-level reliever for another isn't improvement. It's just change for the sake of it. Give me a demonstrably better alternative and I'd have no problem taking him.

I totally agree. But is that not what Krivsky has done since he's been here? Scrap heap city. And my argument is not that Majewski and Bray are that much worse than what we already have, but saying they are quality pitchers and using "small sample size" as an argument is a little ridiculous.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 08:49 PM
Maj should be on the trade bait list with Griffey, Freel, Stanton, Dumatrait, Saarloos (if he isn't DFA'd for 40 man reasons), Castro and Hatte.

They may not get what they need for these guys, but I'd be pushing them first. If the Reds need to trade younger/cheaper/better to get the necessary pitching then some portion of the above group acts as backfill for the guys moved out. The others are throw ins or DFA candidates.

I wouldn't put Griffey on that list (and neither would Krivsky or Castillini), but otherwise, i agree.

RedsManRick
09-23-2007, 09:08 PM
I totally agree. But is that not what Krivsky has done since he's been here? Scrap heap city. And my argument is not that Majewski and Bray are that much worse than what we already have, but saying they are quality pitchers and using "small sample size" as an argument is a little ridiculous.

Speaking solely of Majewski, who on this board has deemed him a "quality pitcher"? I must have missed that.

Small sample size is an argument against any conclusion based on that sample, not for one versus another.

mth123
09-23-2007, 09:08 PM
Just thinking out loud here, but I'd love to see what Daniel Cabrera could do as a short reliever. I was reading a recent Jason Stark column and it sounds like the Orioles and a lot of others are down on him. Might be a chance to buy cheap.


I've wondered this as well. With the talk of Tejada to 3B and Mora to the OF, I wonder if they would be interesetd in Gonzalez. They have soured on Cabrera IMO and maybe he could be had for relatively little. If they want an arm for the mix give one of the pack of the fringe pitchers vying for the 5th spot or the pen. Mazzone might fix 'em.

GAC
09-23-2007, 09:09 PM
I think Jim Bowden knew what he was doing when he traded those two to us. I imagine he jumped for joy for hours after Wayne said, "OK."

When has Jim Bowden ever known what he was doing? :lol:

I really don't think Bowden exactly made out on that deal either, looking at the performance of Lopez and Kearns, and what they are paying them. Let alone their own team's performance in '07.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2007, 09:20 PM
When has Jim Bowden ever known what he was doing? :lol:

I really don't think Bowden exactly made out on that deal either, looking at the performance of Lopez and Kearns, and what they are paying them. Let alone their own team's performance in '07.

Come to think of it, you have a point. I just looked up Kearns and Lopez' stats and find them to be interesting. Hamilton, the closest thing to Kearns' replacement is batting 30 points higher than Austin, has 5 more HR's, and his OBP and SLG percentages are far and away better. And Austin's played in 155 games while Josh has played in only 90!

Same with Lopez and his replacement (one-half year later) Alex Gonzalez. 30 points higher average, more homers, higher OBP and much higher SLG. And Gonzo has played a little more than 100 games while FeLo has played over 140. Hmmm.

Both teams got the shaft IMHO

(and I know you can't compare Washington's stadium to GABP)

mth123
09-23-2007, 09:23 PM
I wouldn't put Griffey on that list (and neither would Krivsky or Castillini), but otherwise, i agree.

Obviously Griffey or Hatte or even Freel wouldn't be on the DFA list like some of the others, but he/they should be shopped. The Reds have an excess of outfielders and a shortage of pitching. Shop the High Dollar, older guy who isn't really a part of the future first. If you can't get what you need for him, then maybe a Hamilton needs to go while Bruce assumes CF and Griffey comes back in RF. But the trade options for the aging and still useful vets should be explored before the young players who can make up the future core are marketed. Somebody who can throw some solid innings needs to be added and some one will need to be dealt to get him.

WVRedsFan
09-24-2007, 12:02 AM
Obviously Griffey or Hatte or even Freel wouldn't be on the DFA list like some of the others, but he/they should be shopped. The Reds have an excess of outfielders and a shortage of pitching. Shop the High Dollar, older guy who isn't really a part of the future first. If you can't get what you need for him, then maybe a Hamilton needs to go while Bruce assumes CF and Griffey comes back in RF. But the trade options for the aging and still useful vets should be explored before the young players who can make up the future core are marketed. Somebody who can throw some solid innings needs to be added and some one will need to be dealt to get him.JMO, but I would first have to be sure we could replace Griffey's production before shopping him. I watched the last four games and for my money, this team is fangless without Dunn and Griffey. If the pitching improves, we could win some games, but without the punch Dunn and Griffey provide this is undoubtedly the most boring club in the majors.

As for Freel, I'd trade him for a bucket of balls--maybe even a half bucket. This team has not missed him one bit and that means he's expendable if we can get roughly anythig for him.

mth123
09-24-2007, 02:31 AM
JMO, but I would first have to be sure we could replace Griffey's production before shopping him. I watched the last four games and for my money, this team is fangless without Dunn and Griffey. If the pitching improves, we could win some games, but without the punch Dunn and Griffey provide this is undoubtedly the most boring club in the majors.

As for Freel, I'd trade him for a bucket of balls--maybe even a half bucket. This team has not missed him one bit and that means he's expendable if we can get roughly anythig for him.

Bruce and Hamilton aren't playing right now. An OF of Dunn, Bruce and Hamilton should offer plenty of production and I'm not worried about replacing him. If they don't get a solid pitcher somehow it doesn't matter anyway. It should also help the pitchers already here because the OF defense should be vastly improved. The current version of Griffey may be the worst defensive regular OF I have seen in a Cincinnati uniform with the exception of Kal Daniels of the late 80s - and that includes Adam Dunn. After 2008, Griffey will be gone anyhow and instead of getting something in return, the team would have to pay $4 Million just to let him go.

The real problem is that they probably can't get the pitcher they need for Griffey and will probably be forced to keep him in RF while trading some one like Hamilton instead for the needed pitcher. Of course after 2008 Griffey will be gone too and then your offensive concerns will be more real. The best way to avoid that problem is to work out a deal involving Griffey for a rotation anchor so that the next generation of offensive production can be retained. If it means that the Reds need to pay part of the salary and include a prospect or two as sweetener they should do it.

GAC
09-24-2007, 08:02 AM
(and I know you can't compare Washington's stadium to GABP)

You're right. You can't. Yet he went out and acquired two ballplayers that may have been helped by the GABP factor without considering how they might/would perform at spacious RFK (park factor).

WebScorpion
09-26-2007, 09:49 AM
How'd this go from Bray and Majewski to Outfielders? Don't answer that... :p:

A guy I'd like to see the Reds target this offseason is Cla Meredith of the Padres. He's had a subpar year compared to last year but he's a guy I would love to see the Reds grab. His sidearm delivery makes his stuff nasty and he reminds me of Scott Sullivan. The Padres are loaded with relievers so they probably would trade him. I know they have always been high on Ryan Freel, so maybe the Reds can start there and add in a prospect to get him.

I've always thought a bullpen (or even a starting rotation) should contain guys who throw from different arm slots. I think it adds another level of complexity to what the opposing batters have to face. Many of the Reds best bullpens contained a sidearmer. Stan Belinda, Scott Sullivan, etc... I know there were more, but I can't think of them right now. Anyway, I think somebody like Cla Meredith would be a great pickup. Heck, I was hoping the Reds would take a shot at Cory Gearrin in this last draft...sidearmers are pretty rare, but a sidearmer who hits the mid-90's?...fogeddaboudit! Here's the sidearmers who could consistently throw in the 90's off the top of my head:
Walter Johnson
Ewell Blackwell
Dennis Eckersley

A nice list, eh?

BuckeyeRedleg
09-26-2007, 09:54 AM
I just don't understand how a guy like Guevara never gets a chance and yet they keep marching Majewski out there.

Even if Guevara was unlucky as well, he could not do worse than Majewski. I guarantee that much.

Lucky or unlucky, Gary doesn't miss many bats and Guevara does.

KronoRed
09-26-2007, 01:07 PM
Lucky or unlucky, Gary doesn't miss many bats and Guevara does.

Missing bats just isn't fair to the other team :D

RedlegJake
09-26-2007, 02:43 PM
Too much is made of what a manager says about guys currebntly on his staff. What do you realistically expect Mac to say? "These guys really stink but I keep running them out there because everyone sucks" or "No way we can count on Bray and Majewski they really aren't much good". If he ever says anything that honest to a reporter then he needs to be fired immediately.

Bray basically needs better command and he hasn't had the innings to accomplish that this year. Majewski ... well, if someone wants him for anything at all send him... if not send him anyway - home.

Falls City Beer
09-26-2007, 02:54 PM
I think it's fair to say that the reason Majewski is on the MLB roster is for Wayne to squeeze some value out of him so Krivsky can save some face. It's okay, Wayne. We don't forgive you, but you can stop punishing us with Gary Majewski anytime you wish.

M2
09-26-2007, 03:44 PM
I think it's fair to say that the reason Majewski is on the MLB roster is for Wayne to squeeze some value out of him so Krivsky can save some face. It's okay, Wayne. We don't forgive you, but you can stop punishing us with Gary Majewski anytime you wish.

Good point, the only thing Wayne can really prove in regard to Majewski is that he has the good sense to walk away.