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lollipopcurve
09-25-2007, 04:10 PM
Fine, I'm a glutton for punishment. But I maintain that the Reds should give a nice juicy contract to Carlos Silva this offseason.

My man Carlos, among the top 50 innings-eaters in the majors:

2nd in walks (behind Maddux, tied with Sabathia and Shields)

13th in ground out/fly out ratio

22nd in HR allowed

25th in on-base percentage against (.319)

30th in innings pitched

36th in ERA

Not just the AL, it's both leagues.

I know it's risky. I know there are going to be some undervalued arms out there (for everyone to sign). But come on, Silva is a rock. Do the Reds have a single groundball pitcher in the rotation? Umm, no. So let's get one. Eh?

PuffyPig
09-25-2007, 04:16 PM
He may be the best FA pitcher available (probably neck and neck with Lohse) but that doesn't mean he's any good.

He's had a nice year, but it's been built on a HR-rate that's half what it was last year (with a corresponding HR/FB rate which is half what it was last year). I would suggest that he gave up more HR's last year than he should have, and less this year. Figure in the middle for a normal year.

He's likely a 4.75-5.00 ERA in GABP.

He strikes out no one, and isn't likely to get any better.

Someone will pay him more than us, and we should be glad they do.

I'd rather have Lohse, he has more upside, but that doesn't mean I want him.

RedsManRick
09-25-2007, 04:37 PM
It's all a function of how much gold. 3 & 20? Ok, I guess. 5 and 50? No thanks! Somebody is going to give him the latter. I hope it isn't us.

flyer85
09-25-2007, 04:46 PM
His had a 6 ERA last year and 4.3 this year. WHich is the real Silva? Let someone else pay to find out, the extremely low K rate makes him dependent on a good defense and the vagaries of BABIP. Let someone else take the risk. I am more than content for the Reds to spend the money elsewhere and go with Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle and ????.

M2
09-25-2007, 04:48 PM
101 ERA+, not that there's anything necessarily wrong with that, but a guy who does that shouldn't be a big money pitcher

1.33 WHIP

3.95 K/9

Currently enjoying a fluke season where his HR/9 has been halved.

Put them in similar circumstances and I'd expect Matt Belisle to pitch better in 2008. Let someone else waste their money on Silva.

RedsFan75
09-25-2007, 04:56 PM
Silva might sound good, but for Great American, I want one of those rare, hard to find Extreme Ground Ball, High Strikeout pitchers!... Fact is, I'll take 3 or 4 of em.

BuckeyeRedleg
09-25-2007, 04:59 PM
I'd rather take Lohse.

RedsManRick
09-25-2007, 05:04 PM
There's a very interesting article on BP today about the success of the Rockies. One of the points they made is that instead of looking for guys who could abuse the affects of Coors, they've been looking for guys whose natural skills sets are enhanced by Coors -- contact hitters with gap power, good defenders, power & pitchability pitchers rather than movement and pinpoint control. It's sort of a "take the wave" mentality in which you don't swim straight against or with it.

It was just one point among many. However, there's an interesting parallel. Pitchers who succeed in GABP aren't the ones who don't give up any homers (they don't exist). They're the ones that succeed even with they give up a homer or two. The hitters who benefit aren't the Adam Dunn's and Wily Mo Pena's who hit the ball 475 feet, but rather Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez. GABP isn't so much the issue with Silva. It's having one of the worst defenses in baseball and not seeing any reason to expect significant improvement.

Patrick Bateman
09-25-2007, 05:15 PM
I think PP, M2, and RMR hit the nail on the head.

The only thing seperating Silva from being a below average pitcher is pure luck. When that averages out you are looking at an unappealing pitcher. Toss him in front of a team that is ill suited for Silva's game and you have a disaster.

Teams with great defenses may consider Silva a good gamble because they can stretch his skills to the max, the Reds can't do that. Instead find pitchers who control their own destiny (high walk, high K, low in play) that won't be hurt as much as because of the team around them. M2 mentioned Cabrera as a possibility yesterday (albeit as a reliever) but that's the type that won't be killed by defense. He's not a great pitcher, but his problems won't be compounded because of the defense.

RedsManRick
09-25-2007, 05:23 PM
It's sort of counter-intuitive, but it would seem to me that hitter friendly parks demand better defenses, and pitcher's parks allow for worse defense. A "free" baserunner is more likely to turn in a run GABP than nearly anywhere else in baseball whereas a "free' baserunner in Pecto is still likely to be stranded.

Given that outs are at more of a premium in hitter's parks (because they are naturally less frequent), having a defense that creates more of them is significant advantage.

lollipopcurve
09-25-2007, 05:32 PM
The only thing seperating Silva from being a below average pitcher is pure luck. When that averages out you are looking at an unappealing pitcher. Toss him in front of a team that is ill suited for Silva's game and you have a disaster.

Teams with great defenses may consider Silva a good gamble because they can stretch his skills to the max, the Reds can't do that. Instead find pitchers who control their own destiny (high walk, high K, low in play) that won't be hurt as much as because of the team around them. M2 mentioned Cabrera as a possibility yesterday (albeit as a reliever) but that's the type that won't be killed by defense. He's not a great pitcher, but his problems won't be compounded because of the defense.

Isn't his low BB rate a skill? He's suppressing HRs pretty well now, too, and that's in the AL. Also, the Reds defense is much improved with EdE playing well, Phillips at 2nd, and, by 09 at the latest, Griffey gone.

I think folks are underestimating the importance of having 6-7 guys who can start at the major league level. Silva gives you that solid 3rd guy, while Belisle, Bailey and Cueto, the only in-house options, remain question marks. So, you're at 5 -- without even acknowledging the possibility of injury.

Highlifeman21
09-25-2007, 05:35 PM
The only price I'd pay for Carlos Silva is in the ballpark of less than 3 Million a year. I'd also only lock him up for a maximum of 3 years.

So yeah, no more than 9 Million over 3 years.

He'll get much more than that this offseason, so let someone else overpay for Mr. Silva's services.

I'd much rather us try to get Kyle Lohse back via FA for a similar 9 over 3 contract, but I have a feeling someone will overpay for him as well.

RedsManRick
09-25-2007, 05:38 PM
League average HR/FB is around 10.5% Silva career average is 11.1%. The trick is that he just doesn't allow as many FB as most. That HR/FB rate is what we'll see increase in GABP. FWIW, in his disaster season last year (5.94 ERA) his HR/FB spike to 16.1% and his GB/FB ratio dipped to a career low 1.28. He allowed more FB than usual, and more HR on those FB which he allowed. His 2006 likely wasn't due just to bad luck. He got legitimately hit harder - I have no idea why.

lollipopcurve
09-25-2007, 05:45 PM
So yeah, no more than 9 Million over 3 years.

He'll get much more than that this offseason, so let someone else overpay for Mr. Silva's services.

I'd much rather us try to get Kyle Lohse back via FA for a similar 9 over 3 contract, but I have a feeling someone will overpay for him as well.

You're dreaming if you think you're going to get league-average pitching for those prices these days -- unless you're counting on that thing you decry so much in evaluating Silva -- luck. The only way the Reds run into cheap league-average pitching from outside the system is to get a highly unpredictable performance from somebody on the scrap heap.

I'll take the expensive league-average bird in the hand over the cheap ones out there in the bushes.

M2
09-25-2007, 05:46 PM
There's a very interesting article on BP today about the success of the Rockies. One of the points they made is that instead of looking for guys who could abuse the affects of Coors, they've been looking for guys whose natural skills sets are enhanced by Coors -- contact hitters with gap power, good defenders, power & pitchability pitchers rather than movement and pinpoint control. It's sort of a "take the wave" mentality in which you don't swim straight against or with it.

It was just one point among many. However, there's an interesting parallel. Pitchers who succeed in GABP aren't the ones who don't give up any homers (they don't exist). They're the ones that succeed even with they give up a homer or two. The hitters who benefit aren't the Adam Dunn's and Wily Mo Pena's who hit the ball 475 feet, but rather Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez. GABP isn't so much the issue with Silva. It's having one of the worst defenses in baseball and not seeing any reason to expect significant improvement.

Great points. On the pitching front, I wouldn't shy away from a low cost guy who might be asking for extra leather support, but I don't recommend shelling out big bucks for one in advance of building the support system he'll need. If the Reds are intrigued by some of what Silva brings to the table (he's got a solid GB rate) I'd urge them to find someone who's like Silva from four years ago rather than pony up for the Silva 2007 model. He's got too much of a chance of falling flat on his face for my tastes.

Crosley68
09-25-2007, 05:54 PM
I have no problem over paying for very good pitching. I am very against over paying for slightly above replacement level pitching .........which is what I compare Silva to.

M2
09-25-2007, 05:55 PM
I'll take the expensive league-average bird in the hand over the cheap ones out there in the bushes.

<begin mixed metaphor>

But that's the trapdoor the Reds keep falling through. Don't shell out for guys with average ceilings. Their basements will kill you.

I'm a big fan of birds in hand, but that's not enough bird.

<end mixed metaphor>

RedsManRick
09-25-2007, 05:57 PM
<begin mixed metaphor>

But that's the trapdoor the Reds keep falling through. Don't shell out for guys with average ceilings. Their basements will kill you.

I'm a big fan of birds in hand, but that's not enough bird.

<end mixed metaphor>

:clap::beerme::clap:

A very interesting way to summarize a great point.

Develop guys with high ceilings. Sign guys with high floors.

M2
09-25-2007, 06:01 PM
Develop guys with high ceilings. Sign guys with high floors.

That's better phrasing than I put to it. Yeah, do exactly that.

redsfan4445
09-25-2007, 06:05 PM
i say go after Willis in a trade.. we need a lefty and he would fit in between Harang and Arroyo

lollipopcurve
09-25-2007, 06:07 PM
I understand the risk involved. But I think it's a good risk because if Silva pitches reasonably close to the way he pitched this year, the Reds are right there to win the division, provided the rest of the pitching holds.

I think there is a lot of bias against signing free agent pitchers in the wake of the Milton debacle. Lost in that are some of the particulars of why Milton was a really poor risk, though those particulars were bandied about ad infinitum here -- his flyball tendencies, his chronic health issues. Silva is a groundball pitcher and he's been very durable.

I like the FA market. All you lose is owner's money -- and the Reds are looking at having a lot of money to spend over the next few years, while the young offensive core is in place. The scrap heap -- you're lucky to find anything. The trade market -- say goodbye to some of your best talent.

To me, Silva is the kind of risk a team that wants to win takes.

RedsManRick
09-25-2007, 06:11 PM
The one thing Milton did reasonably well that Silva is horrible about is miss bats. That means a lot more balls are subject to three things: luck, the natural park affects of wherever he's pitching, and team defense. If Silva was a Red, two of those three things would be working against him.

lollipopcurve
09-25-2007, 06:13 PM
Sign guys with high floors.

Silva has had one bad year. Every other year he has been solid. If you're looking for flukes in his performance, it's the bad one, not the others.

Say you sign him to 4 years. Say you get two good years, two not so good. My contention is that in those 2 years in which he pitches well, the Reds are very likely to be contending for the division title in September. You gotta take that shot.

RedsManRick
09-25-2007, 06:23 PM
Again Lillipop, consider the conditions in which he's had success. Minnesota has been among the leaders in defensive efficiency during his tenure. I don't disagree with your basic premise, but as M2 rightly pointed out, he's league average in a best case scenario. Given the Reds horrible defense, committing significant money to a mediocre at best upside, and disastrous downside isn't too smart. There are legitimate reasons to believe he would not likely match his Twins' success as a Red.

It's one thing to commit to a guy like that for a year or two, or at minimal financial risk (think Matt Belisle). However, with limited resources, you need something that more closely resembles a sure thing in this environment.

M2
09-25-2007, 06:24 PM
I understand the risk involved. But I think it's a good risk because if Silva pitches reasonably close to the way he pitched this year, the Reds are right there to win the division, provided the rest of the pitching holds.

I think there is a lot of bias against signing free agent pitchers in the wake of the Milton debacle. Lost in that are some of the particulars of why Milton was a really poor risk, though those particulars were bandied about ad infinitum here -- his flyball tendencies, his chronic health issues. Silva is a groundball pitcher and he's been very durable.

I like the FA market. All you lose is owner's money -- and the Reds are looking at having a lot of money to spend over the next few years, while the young offensive core is in place. The scrap heap -- you're lucky to find anything. The trade market -- say goodbye to some of your best talent.

To me, Silva is the kind of risk a team that wants to win takes.

I'd love to agree with you. I'm all for the Reds spending money and getting 200 IP of good pitcher. It's just I don't think Silva fills the bill.

It's not the what (free agency) for me, it's the who (Silva). Unfortunately I don't see any whos in the what for this offseason.

lollipopcurve
09-25-2007, 06:24 PM
The one thing Milton did reasonably well that Silva is horrible about is miss bats. That means a lot more balls are subject to three things: luck, the natural park affects of wherever he's pitching, and team defense. If Silva was a Red, two of those three things would be working against him.

k/9 2005-2007

Milton (05-07): 5.94, 5.31, 5.17
Silva (05-07): 3.39, 3.49, 3.89

So, let's say Milton averages out to 5.5 k/9, Silva to 3.5. That may be 1.5 outs over the course of the 6-7 innings they'd normally throw. Given all the other parameters of their performance, HR rate, BB rate, ability to take their turn in the rotation, not to mention the near-certainty that Silva would be pitching with a better defense over the life of his contract, I think Milton's better K rate puts little in his favor.

PuffyPig
09-25-2007, 06:28 PM
Pitchers who succeed in GABP aren't the ones who don't give up any homers (they don't exist). They're the ones that succeed even with they give up a homer or two. The hitters who benefit aren't the Adam Dunn's and Wily Mo Pena's who hit the ball 475 feet, but rather Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez.

I agree with you completely, but, for some reason, Phillips and Gonzalez aren't fitting that mold (even though you would expect them to).

Both Phillips and Gonzalez have hit better on the road this year than at home. It's especially a surprise with Gonzalez. Randa was a creature of GABP. Hatteberg is an extreme example.

But your premise is correct. Hitters with the more marginal power (but good general overall skills and a good eye) should be gold at GABP.

PuffyPig
09-25-2007, 06:32 PM
k/9 2005-2007

Milton (05-07): 5.94, 5.31, 5.17
Silva (05-07): 3.39, 3.49, 3.89

So, let's say Milton averages out to 5.5 k/9, Silva to 3.5. That may be 1.5 outs over the course of the 6-7 innings they'd normally throw. Given all the other parameters of their performance, HR rate, BB rate, ability to take their turn in the rotation, not to mention the near-certainty that Silva would be pitching with a better defense over the life of his contract, I think Milton's better K rate puts little in his favor.


OK, you've convinced me that Silva can be as good as Milton.

Now what?

KronoRed
09-25-2007, 06:41 PM
No thanks, he may be the "best" available but he's not what this team really needs, and because he's the "best" then he's going to be really expensive.

RedsManRick
09-25-2007, 06:42 PM
That's not an apples to apples comparison. We have to compare Silva to what we knew about Milton when we signed him. Here are Milton's numbers in the year's preceding the Reds signing him:

1999: 206.1 IP, 7.11 K/9
2000: 200.0 IP, 7.20 K/9
2001: 220.2 IP, 6.40 K/9
2002: 171.0 IP, 6.37 K/9
2003: 17.0 IP, 3.71 K/9
2004: 201.0 IP, 7.21 K/9

That's the pitcher the Reds thought they were giving a contract to. Namely, a durable starter with above average strikeout ability and good control, but with strong flyball tendencies. He pitched 201 innings in 2004, indicated (wrongly) to Reds brass that he was healthy again after missing most of 2003.

3 fewer Ks per 9 is an inning per game that Silva relies on his defense relative to the average pitcher. Given BABIP rates, that's a hit per game, based just on his non-strikeouts. Given the high hit rate in Cincy (due both to HR frequency in GABP and the Reds low DER ), that's a recipe for a step back in performance.

If Silva is going to be as good as Milton, who similarly had league average upside even when completely healthy, I would hope we've learned our lesson.

Highlifeman21
09-26-2007, 11:32 AM
You're dreaming if you think you're going to get league-average pitching for those prices these days -- unless you're counting on that thing you decry so much in evaluating Silva -- luck. The only way the Reds run into cheap league-average pitching from outside the system is to get a highly unpredictable performance from somebody on the scrap heap.

I'll take the expensive league-average bird in the hand over the cheap ones out there in the bushes.

Overpaying for a #4 or #5 SP makes little sense for the Reds, when they'll get similiar and cheaper results from the likes of Belisle, Bailey, Cueto and possibly Gosling, Livingston, Saarloos, and Shearn.

Now if Carlos Silva was more capable of an ERA closer to 4 than 5, and a K:BB better than 3:1, and a K/9 above 5, and could handle a pitch load closer to 100/GS, rather than the 87/GS he's averaged over his career, then I might consider him worth more than 3 Million a year. Unfortunately, his ERA is a deceiving number, his K:BB is closer to 2 than 3, his K/9 is under 4, and he doesn't go deep into ball games, which would mean we'd see a lot more of the bullpen on games he started. None of those things excite me for over 3 Million a year.

Puffy
09-26-2007, 11:53 AM
Carlos Silva signing with the Reds would cause a loathing from me akin to the Randa signing (for different reasons - Randa because he was a supposed luxury the Reds did not need at the time with equal in house replacements and money that could have been spent elsewhere - Silva because he's not that good and will be overpaid in this market)

kheidg-
09-26-2007, 12:32 PM
IMO the only two things worse than giving Silva a juicy 4 year contract would be giving Milton another juicy 4 year contract or Castro a juicy 4 year contract.

Silva is good when he is lucky. Gives up lots of hits and doesn't strike anyone out. If we are that desperate put Shearn in the rotation.

Heath
09-26-2007, 04:22 PM
So, if not Silva, who is available that can fit that GABP model of Starting Pitching?

Hey, Tom Shearn's done it with smoke and mirrors. Why not Shearn for the #5 <end wishful thinking>

RedsManRick
09-26-2007, 04:26 PM
So, if not Silva, who is available that can fit that GABP model of Starting Pitching?

Hey, Tom Shearn's done it with smoke and mirrors. Why not Shearn for the #5 <end wishful thinking>

In Free Agency, nobody. Sucks huh?

Heath
09-26-2007, 04:28 PM
In Free Agency, nobody. Sucks huh?

The double suck is that BCast, in an effort to appease the masses, will think he HAS to sign one in FA.

RedsManRick
09-26-2007, 04:30 PM
The double suck is that BCast, in an effort to appease the masses, will think he HAS to sign one in FA.

Exactly, the only thing worse than not adding a starter via FA this year would be adding a starter via FA.

KronoRed
09-26-2007, 04:38 PM
The double suck is that BCast, in an effort to appease the masses, will think he HAS to sign one in FA.

Then we'll see him for 34 starts

Yahoo..Milton2

lollipopcurve
09-26-2007, 04:41 PM
I'll take the heat if Silva stinks in the years ahead. But if he produces, be prepared for many an annoying I-told-you-so, especially if the Reds don't get him and are still pitching starved. Be prepared!

In the meantime, feel free to step up and start a thread pimping a pitcher you'd like to see ride into Cincy in 08, and how you'd get him there.

Heath
09-26-2007, 05:04 PM
I'll take the heat if Silva stinks in the years ahead. But if he produces, be prepared for many an annoying I-told-you-so, especially if the Reds don't get him and are still pitching starved. Be prepared!

In the meantime, feel free to step up and start a thread pimping a pitcher you'd like to see ride into Cincy in 08, and how you'd get him there.

Brandon Webb. With Guns.

kheidg-
09-26-2007, 05:05 PM
I'll take the heat if Silva stinks in the years ahead. But if he produces, be prepared for many an annoying I-told-you-so, especially if the Reds don't get him and are still pitching starved. Be prepared!


You better be ready to take some heat.

lollipopcurve
09-26-2007, 05:46 PM
You better be ready to take some heat.

Oh yeah. Makes it fun.

RedsManRick
09-26-2007, 06:15 PM
I'll take the heat if Silva stinks in the years ahead. But if he produces, be prepared for many an annoying I-told-you-so, especially if the Reds don't get him and are still pitching starved. Be prepared!

In the meantime, feel free to step up and start a thread pimping a pitcher you'd like to see ride into Cincy in 08, and how you'd get him there.

Johnny Cueto, acquired via promotion from Louisville. :-P