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View Full Version : Dontrelle Willis -- would you?



Matt700wlw
09-26-2007, 03:28 PM
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/marlins/content/sports/epaper/2007/09/25/a1c_marlins_0925.html

I think it's worth a look...

Value is down after this year, but he can still be great..... and he's only 24.

RedsManRick
09-26-2007, 03:49 PM
Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole given what he's going to cost. Give me a reason to believe his decline hasn't be due to a change in ability or significant health concern and I'd rethink it. Otherwise, he's a mediocre at best pitcher that will cost top dollar.

RedlegJake
09-26-2007, 03:49 PM
Yes I would but the price is going to be astronomical. Still the "sign guys with high floors" theory that was posted earlier (a GREAT line by the way - develop high ceilings and sign high floors)fits Dontrelle to a tee. At his poorest he is a notch above anything after Harang. Young, a chance to be great, and already good enough to be a staff anchor - well that's exactly why I want him (despite I think he is overrated - it's a good kind of over rated in that he isn't as great as the media builds him but he is still good) and exactly why he is going to be hard to afford. If I felt he was the final key then I'd just jump on it and damn the price.

IslandRed
09-26-2007, 04:01 PM
At his poorest he is a notch above anything after Harang.

His poorest would be 2007, and he wasn't as good as Arroyo this year. It wasn't particularly close, either. He was better than Belisle, but not by a lot.

Now, was his bad 2007 a fluke or, combined with 2006 when some of his peripherals regressed, a trend? And if it's a trend, can it be reversed? I don't doubt for a minute that someone will pay him as if it was a fluke. The multi-million dollar question is whether they'll be right.

Krusty
09-26-2007, 04:05 PM
His pitching mechanics is a pitching coach's nightmare.

camisadelgolf
09-26-2007, 04:16 PM
This would be my offer to the Marlins, but I wouldn't be willing to give up much more since Maloney might become more than the back-of-the-rotation starter the scouts say he will: Matt Maloney, Pedro Lopez, and Chris Heisey.

redsfan4445
09-26-2007, 04:27 PM
YES i would take a look.. We need a lefty and he had a bad year. Much like Coffey.


why not offer Coffey, Belisle, Stubbs and travis wood?

A rotation of Harang, Willis, Arroyo, Bailey and if Cueto isn't ready yet, Shearn/Livingston for the #5 spot isn't bad
then the Reds can fix the pen..

lollipopcurve
09-26-2007, 04:27 PM
No way. Look at the trend from 05 to 06 to 07 -- ERA way up (5.27 now), WHIP (1.6), hits/9 (now over 11) and HR/9 (1.33) -- and remember he's pitching in a park that's real big and in a division with several big parks (DC, Atlanta, Shea). Dontrelle has thrown a ton of innings on a young arm, and he's got real ugly mechanics. I love his persona and I like that he's a lefty, but I foresee a major injury soon -- or at best, continued shellacking.

KronoRed
09-26-2007, 04:37 PM
I'd take a one year chance on him, if he tanks we're only out the salary for that one year.

That won't happen of course

M2
09-26-2007, 04:41 PM
In the current market a team like the Reds can't trade for a pitcher. What they can trade for is a question mark. I'll remind folks that no one held a parade when the club dealt for Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo, yet they've worked out quite nicely.

Willis has had a bad season, no two ways about it. He's currently pitching with a career-high .326 BABIP, which hurts. His K/BB was 2.38 heading into this season and now it's 1.76. His HR/9 was 0.72 heading into this season and now it's 1.29. His doubles allowed have jumped up to 52 as well. It's pretty much all gone wrong. Yet there's a baby who had four good seasons in row in that bathwater.

If you give him a .310 BABIP while his K/BB climbed back above 2.00 and his HR/9 dropped below 1.00, you'd probably have a good pitcher. I'm not saying that will happen (the GAB won't help with the homers), but if we're holding out for someone perfect then we'll be holding out forever. He'll be 26 next year he's durable. If you could get him for, say, Stubbs and Maloney, I'd roll the dice.

Johnny Footstool
09-26-2007, 05:10 PM
It all depends on the cost to acquire him. Based on his recent trends, it would have to be pretty low. Two medium prospects would be great.

RedsManRick
09-26-2007, 05:17 PM
Let's not forget that Willis will cost something in the $8-9M range and will be a free agency in 2009. One year of Willis at $8-9M is not worth any B or better prospects.

M2
09-26-2007, 05:20 PM
According to Rotoworld, he's not a free agent until 2010. Might have been a super 2 based on his 27-start rookie campaign.

Rojo
09-26-2007, 05:25 PM
I'd like to give it a shot. The Marlins like young pitching and up-the-middle guys back in trades, though. Hamilton?

Patrick Bateman
09-26-2007, 05:26 PM
A guy I like from the Marlins is Scott Olsen. Of course the guy's an immature jerk, but he's also a young lefty with really good pure stuff. He even had a pretty good year in '06. If someone can get his attitude in place at all, they might have a gem on their hands.

The Marlins seem to be souring on him, and as such he's a pitcher that the Reds should be able to acquire without sacrificing a whole lot. He's a gamble, but the payoff is quite nice, and a risk I'd like to see the Reds take.

dougdirt
09-26-2007, 05:26 PM
Not a chance. First off, the Marlins are going to want top prospects, with an S, as in multiple. The Reds can't afford to give up top prospects for a guy who would be at best a 3/4 for 1 season before walking. Secondly, the guy is in a big decline this year and something doesn't seem right. Mix the two together and its a deal that I want no part of.

bucksfan2
09-26-2007, 05:29 PM
YES i would take a look.. We need a lefty and he had a bad year. Much like Coffey.


why not offer Coffey, Belisle, Stubbs and travis wood?

A rotation of Harang, Willis, Arroyo, Bailey and if Cueto isn't ready yet, Shearn/Livingston for the #5 spot isn't bad
then the Reds can fix the pen..

Willis had a bad year but the Marlins wouldn't excpet that trade. They will probably look for and/or get a top notch minor league prospect for Willis. Organizations who have a history of being able to trade for and develop good young players don't take a deal like this. We all have watch the reds and all seen how Coffey and Belisle have struggled and most on this board want nothing to do with Stubbs and want him traded ASAP. These other teams have scouts, its not like they are blindly going to accept a trade. Here is the value I assign to each reds player in this trade has.

Coffey- Negative. He really possessed no trade value and would have to be a throw in on a trade. He does nothing to increase the value of the trade rather IMO decreases it.

Belisle - No Value. He is a dime a dozen fifth starter. Not good enough to hold down a spot all year in the reds rotatoin and during his year in the pen wasn't good enough to do anything other than be a long reliever. Does nothing in a trade, more a filler than anythign.

Stubbs - Highest in this trade, however most people here don't like him on this board. He possesses a tremendous amount of upside and has shown glimpses of becoming a good player. He is still a long way away from the bigs and I would imagine the marlins would want a major league ready impact player in this deal a la Hanley Ramirez for Beckett.

Wood - Undervalued. If there was ever a time not to trade him this is. He was hurt this year so his value is probably the lowest it has been during his entire career. He is not close to making an impact and again the marlins would want more.

Sorry I just don't see the Marlins even giving a thought to this idea if it were proposed.

M2
09-26-2007, 05:40 PM
The Marlins have an absolute organizational void in CF and have supposedly been asking for one in every set of trade talks for the past two years.

They like tools, so Drew Stubbs might be right up their alley. They also don't like spending money, so moving Willis' contract (which I'm thinking will be low $7Ms next season) might be a priority there too. Obviously you'd have to want Willis before you offered Stubbs, but if the Reds did want Willis, Stubbs might be the right bait.

WVRedsFan
09-26-2007, 06:51 PM
The Marlins have an absolute organizational void in CF and have supposedly been asking for one in every set of trade talks for the past two years.

They like tools, so Drew Stubbs might be right up their alley. They also don't like spending money, so moving Willis' contract (which I'm thinking will be low $7Ms next season) might be a priority there too. Obviously you'd have to want Willis before you offered Stubbs, but if the Reds did want Willis, Stubbs might be the right bait.

Hopper? Sell high. He's always hit well, but has no punch, but would they accept him?

RedsManRick
09-26-2007, 06:58 PM
M2, make 'em take Stanton to help balance out the cash a bit and now we're talking!

pedro
09-26-2007, 07:40 PM
Belisle - No Value. He is a dime a dozen fifth starter. Not good enough to hold down a spot all year in the reds rotatoin and during his year in the pen wasn't good enough to do anything other than be a long reliever. Does nothing in a trade, more a filler than anythign.

Actually Belisle has some value. His ERA stinks this year but his peripherals are good and he's cheap. I think he could put up a 4.5 era in that park easily.

Rojo
09-26-2007, 08:08 PM
Ryan Dempster was had for Ryan Snare, Juan Encarnacion and Wilton Guerrero. Of course that didn't work out, but it was worth the shot. Stubbs, Hopper and a pitching prospect?

RedEye
09-26-2007, 08:53 PM
Brandon Phillips for Dontrelle Willis and a minor league infielder. You heard it here first.

RedsManRick
09-26-2007, 09:00 PM
And BP plays where in Florida? CF? They move Uggla to LF?

Highlifeman21
09-26-2007, 09:01 PM
Brandon Phillips for Dontrelle Willis and a minor league infielder. You heard it here first.

I'd hope we'd do much better than Dontrelle Willis for Brandon Phillips.

Matt700wlw
09-26-2007, 09:07 PM
Brandon Phillips for Dontrelle Willis and a minor league infielder. You heard it here first.

They need outfielders and pitchers

OnBaseMachine
09-26-2007, 09:10 PM
Like Ak, I also like Scott Olsen. He's cheaer and can probably be had for a lot less than Dontrelle. Stubbs and a prospect might get it done.

Patrick Bateman
09-26-2007, 09:13 PM
I'd hope we'd do much better than Dontrelle Willis for Brandon Phillips.

Me too. The Reds either need to take advantage of Phillips' cheap years where he is a bargain, or he needs to be dealt for a really good package of cheap pitching.

Dealing him for a year of Willis doesn't do that. I'm not opposed to dealing for Willis provided we can get him to a reasonable long term deal. He would be an interesting gamble. I just wouldn't want to give up someone like Phillips for him. That's just an ill advised long term move, which is what the Reds should be focusing on right now.

KronoRed
09-26-2007, 09:28 PM
If we can get a decent pitcher for Stubbs and Hopper then I'd mail Krivsky a poem of love

Blitz Dorsey
09-26-2007, 09:39 PM
I'm not even going to speculate on who might be included in this fantasy of a deal... but I will say this:

A Reds' starting rotation of:

1. Harang
2a. Arroyo
2b. Willis
4. Bailey
5. Belisle

... would look pretty damn good for next year.

Keep in mind one thing: If we do in fact add a legit #3 or #2 starter this offseason, we will either have to overpay for him on the free agent market, or trade some players we don't want to trade (Hamilton, Phillips, etc.). There is no possible way we're going to be lucky enough to use Drew Stubbs as the centerpiece of a trade for a good pitcher.

Personally, I say forget about a trade and go out and sign someone on the FA market. Just don't swing and miss like we did with Milton three winters ago. But like I said, we will have to overpay for whoever we get. But that's better than giving up a couple good young players and it's the only way we're even going to compete. Even the Royals went out and signed Gil Meche for 5 yr/$55 mil and I laughed about it at the time. Now I wish we had Meche for that deal. I am done worrying about how much these guys make. I just want a better starting rotation, period. Castellini is willing to spend the money on announcers I am hoping this is the winter he will spend some $$ on pitching as well.

RedEye
09-26-2007, 09:48 PM
Keep in mind one thing: If we do in fact add a legit #3 or #2 starter this offseason, we will either have to overpay for him on the free agent market, or trade some players we don't want to trade (Hamilton, Phillips, etc.). There is no possible way we're going to be lucky enough to use Drew Stubbs as the centerpiece of a trade for a good pitcher.

Personally, I say forget about a trade and go out and sign someone on the FA market. Just don't swing and miss like we did with Milton three winters ago. But like I said, we will have to overpay for whoever we get. But that's better than giving up a couple good young players and it's the only way we're even going to compete. Even the Royals went out and signed Gil Meche for 5 yr/$55 mil and I laughed about it at the time. Now I wish we had Meche for that deal. I am done worrying about how much these guys make. I just want a better starting rotation, period. Castellini is willing to spend the money on announcers I am hoping this is the winter he will spend some $$ on pitching as well.

Agree with your first point, which is why I keep banging the "trade Phillips" gong, much to everyone's chagrin. The reason I keep doing so is that there is almost NO ONE on the free agent market that I'd want the Reds to sign. Acquiring a primo SP (meaning someone who is on par with Harang or even Arroyo... most probably someone to slot between them) is going to require a gutsy move like trading Phillips.

The only FA SP that interests me remotely is Randy Wolf because he is a lefty and because he gets decent K rates. However, he has had injury issues in the past, so that might be an ill-advised route as well.

REDREAD
09-26-2007, 09:51 PM
Not a chance. First off, the Marlins are going to want top prospects, with an S, as in multiple. The Reds can't afford to give up top prospects for a guy who would be at best a 3/4 for 1 season before walking. Secondly, the guy is in a big decline this year and something doesn't seem right. Mix the two together and its a deal that I want no part of.

That's my thought too. I'd love to have Willis. But Willis was considered an elite pitcher just last year. Sure, he had a bad year, but some rich contender will still give a king's ransom for him.

If we could get him for a handful of B prospects, sure, it's a no brainer.. but he's going to go for much more than that.

I'd love to have Willis, but I doubt we could win the bidding war.

Highlifeman21
09-27-2007, 03:48 PM
If we can get a decent pitcher for Stubbs and Hopper then I'd mail Krivsky a poem of love

I'd get down on 1 knee and deliver it to him personally.

As an added bonus, I'd even recite it.

15fan
09-27-2007, 04:03 PM
If the Marlins are trying to compete in 2008, it makes sense for them to keep Willis.

If the Marlins are rebuilding, then it makes sense for them to trade him. For young talent.

By the same logic, if the Reds are trying to compete in 2008, it makes sense to trade for a guy like Willis. If competing in 2008 isn't part of the plan, then trading for Willis makes little sense.

I had a sense of deja vu and did a search. This thread from last summer (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49199&highlight=Dontrelle+Willis) makes some interesting reading.

I'll also point out my rather astute observation exactly 14 months ago today.

If a shiny version of Willis for a shiny version of Bailey made sense (or didn't make sense) 14 months ago, does a less shiny Willis for a less shiny Bailey change the fundamental decision in any way?

Highlifeman21
09-27-2007, 04:06 PM
If the Marlins are trying to compete in 2008, it makes sense for them to keep Willis.

If the Marlins are rebuilding, then it makes sense for them to trade him. For young talent.

By the same logic, if the Reds are trying to compete in 2008, it makes sense to trade for a guy like Willis. If competing in 2008 isn't part of the plan, then trading for Willis makes little sense.

I had a sense of deja vu and did a search. This thread from last summer (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49199&highlight=Dontrelle+Willis) makes some interesting reading.

I'll also point out my rather astute observation exactly 14 months ago today.

The Reds shouldn't pretend to compete in 2008. They are just too far away from being legitimate.

2009, I'll buy. I might be able to wrap my head around thinking we could put together a better club by then, top to bottom.

But as for 2008, we'd need too many guys having career years, and would need too much of a shake up of the organization to really have a chance.

15fan
09-27-2007, 04:09 PM
I disagree.

Another starter like Arroyo, and another reliever like Jared Burton or David Weathers over a full season, and the Reds are right in the Central. There are no dominant teams in the division and none that show any promise of turning into a Yankees/Red Sox/Angels powerhouse in the next 12 months.

pedro
09-27-2007, 04:14 PM
I think Dontrelle is getting ready go all "Steve Avery"

Highlifeman21
09-27-2007, 04:19 PM
I disagree.

Another starter like Arroyo, and another reliever like Jared Burton or David Weathers over a full season, and the Reds are right in the Central. There are no dominant teams in the division and none that show any promise of turning into a Yankees/Red Sox/Angels powerhouse in the next 12 months.

The problem with Arroyo is that we don't know which Arroyo will show up in 2008. Will he resemble the 2006 version, or the 2007 version? If he resembles the 2007 version, then we have a #1 SP (Harang) and then a #3 with Arroyo, and then we're still left with 3 question marks for the rotation. If he resembles the 2006 version, then we have a #1 and a #2.

I'm not overly convinced that adding another Burton or Weathers magically cures the bullpen either. One arm isn't going to turn the bullpen around, IMO. One thing you have to take into account is that to improve the rotation and the bullpen, chances are we won't be dealing off spare pitching to get better pitching, but rather offense to gain pitching. To be able to compete in the NL Central by giving away offense, we'll need to add another pitcher more resembling Harang than Arroyo to make up the difference.

Now if Krivsky is willing to trade away someone like Travis Wood, or Matt Maloney or pick another unknown crapshoot pitching prospect, for some legitimate established MLB caliber pitching, then by all means.

PuffyPig
09-27-2007, 04:34 PM
The problem with Arroyo is that we don't know which Arroyo will show up in 2008. Will he resemble the 2006 version, or the 2007 version?

The only real difference between the 2006 Arroyo (very lucky) and the 2007 Arroyo (very unlucky) is different luck (relating to BABIP).

Other than that, he's pretty much the same pitcher.

A betting man would wager than the 2008 Arroyo will have average luck, putting the 2008 Arroyo squarely between those earlier versions.

KronoRed
09-27-2007, 05:14 PM
I think Dontrelle is getting ready go all "Steve Avery"

Maybe, but a one year try isn't going to lead to disaster if he does.

pedro
09-27-2007, 05:53 PM
Maybe, but a one year try isn't going to lead to disaster if he does.

no, I just wouldn't want to give much for him.

RedsManRick
09-27-2007, 09:11 PM
I disagree.

Another starter like Arroyo, and another reliever like Jared Burton or David Weathers over a full season, and the Reds are right in the Central. There are no dominant teams in the division and none that show any promise of turning into a Yankees/Red Sox/Angels powerhouse in the next 12 months.

Reds are on pace to score 792 and allow 856. To get to .500 we'd need to allow about 64 fewer runs.

Over 247.2 IP, Burton and Arroyo have allowed 120 RA (108 ER) for a collective 4.36 R/9IP (3.89 ERA). If we acquired another copy of those guys, we'd have to replace guys with a collective 6.69 R/9IP to save 64 runs. I'm not sure I see those innings out there. However, it could be close if you replace a collection, of Dumatrait, Majewski, etc.

Even with another Arroyo and another Burton, we're still below .500. But we are close. Assuming we score 790+ runs again.

dougdirt
09-27-2007, 09:17 PM
Maybe, but a one year try isn't going to lead to disaster if he does.

No, but if you trade away the wrong piece it could be a disaster.

GAC
09-27-2007, 10:15 PM
What else is out there folks?

The Marlins will demand much due to the market..... and some team, whether it's the Reds or whover, will ante up.

The question with the Reds is..... do we have the ante in comparison to the competition that will also be looking at Willis? ;)

RedLegSuperStar
09-27-2007, 10:27 PM
Heck yeah I go after Willis.. 24 year old who has already won 22 games in a season. He has the ability to strikeout a lot of hitters and he can hit pretty well to boot. Now as long as it doesn't cost us top tier prospects(Bailey, Votto, or Bruce) which no doubt it will.. I go after him.

Aronchis
09-27-2007, 10:37 PM
Reds are on pace to score 792 and allow 856. To get to .500 we'd need to allow about 64 fewer runs.

Over 247.2 IP, Burton and Arroyo have allowed 120 RA (108 ER) for a collective 4.36 R/9IP (3.89 ERA). If we acquired another copy of those guys, we'd have to replace guys with a collective 6.69 R/9IP to save 64 runs. I'm not sure I see those innings out there. However, it could be close if you replace a collection, of Dumatrait, Majewski, etc.

Even with another Arroyo and another Burton, we're still below .500. But we are close. Assuming we score 790+ runs again.


You are forgetting the Reds may very well score more runs next year, maybe much more. I would say a 900 run season isn't out of the question with whats coming in the future.

KronoRed
09-27-2007, 11:31 PM
No, but if you trade away the wrong piece it could be a disaster.

Perhaps, or the traded pieces may never do anything on the major league roster, not suggesting we trade Bruce for him but pretty much anyone else sure.

Hoosier Red
09-28-2007, 01:37 AM
Maybe he's just had a bad year, but his ERA, strikeouts, Whip, and Innings pitched have all gone down the last two years.

This year, he's basically Matt Belisle.

Imagine how excited you'd be if the Reds traded Edwin Encarnacion, Sam Lecure, and Travis Wood for Matt Belisle.

dougdirt
09-28-2007, 11:07 AM
Perhaps, or the traded pieces may never do anything on the major league roster, not suggesting we trade Bruce for him but pretty much anyone else sure.

While I agree with some of that (I think that you don't trade Cueto or Bruce unless something stunning comes along for Cueto, but Bruce isn't moving for anyone in baseball short of maybe Matt Cain/Cole Hamels). Of course, I am not up for trading a lot for Willis becuase at this point, he seems to be heading in the wrong direction as is, in a huge ballpark where he is throwing up numbers that are #5 starter on the Reds staff like.

registerthis
09-28-2007, 11:12 AM
Brandon Phillips for Dontrelle Willis and a minor league infielder. You heard it here first.

That's precisely the type of deal the Reds should be avoiding. And Florida wouldn't want Phillips anyway.

registerthis
09-28-2007, 11:17 AM
The Reds shouldn't pretend to compete in 2008. They are just too far away from being legitimate.

I don't agree with this. The Central will remain a weak division, barring some explosive moves by the Cards or Cubs in the offseason. The Reds will likely have a very balanced offense, a solid front end of their rotation, and a solid back end to their bullpen with Burton and Weathers. If the Reds can acquire another solid (read: average-to-above average) starter and a couple middle relievers, that team will be able to compete. There's no doubt in my mind.

If you believe the Reds shouldn't make an effort to be competitive in 2008, I'd argue that you've become too cautious. The Central is one of those divisions that is pretty much consistently begging to be won by someone, and by adding a few pieces in the right places there's no reason the Reds can't be right there. This team isn't light years away, though they do play like it sometimes.

KronoRed
09-28-2007, 02:41 PM
I don't think you can depend on the central continuting to be winnable with 83 wins, if the Brewers stay healthy and don't get crumble like they did this year they can win a lot more then 83.

PuffyPig
09-28-2007, 02:57 PM
I don't think you can depend on the central continuting to be winnable with 83 wins, if the Brewers stay healthy and don't get crumble like they did this year they can win a lot more then 83.

The Brewers will start getting more expensive too, so they will eventually have to make choices like all small market teams do.

Alot depends on Sheets. Unless he stays healthy enough to have that one big year, they'll have similiar pitching woes to us.

I;m more concerned about the Cubs, who have the starting rotation, lineup and money to compete for awhile.

Highlifeman21
09-28-2007, 04:54 PM
I don't agree with this. The Central will remain a weak division, barring some explosive moves by the Cards or Cubs in the offseason. The Reds will likely have a very balanced offense, a solid front end of their rotation, and a solid back end to their bullpen with Burton and Weathers. If the Reds can acquire another solid (read: average-to-above average) starter and a couple middle relievers, that team will be able to compete. There's no doubt in my mind.

If you believe the Reds shouldn't make an effort to be competitive in 2008, I'd argue that you've become too cautious. The Central is one of those divisions that is pretty much consistently begging to be won by someone, and by adding a few pieces in the right places there's no reason the Reds can't be right there. This team isn't light years away, though they do play like it sometimes.

We have too much pitching ground to make up, while not sacrificing offense, to compete in 2008. I fully expect the Cubs and the Brewers to be the top teams in the NL Central in 2008. The Cardinals lacked pitching this year, and look where they are. They're a team very closely resembling us, now.

I would love for the Reds to make an effort to be competitive in 2008, but I want them to have long term planning in mind to not put all our eggs in the 2008 basket. If I had to pick between the 2008 basket and the 2009 basket, I say put em all in the 2009 basket while using 2008 as a year to accurately evaluate some of our minor league talent, while structuring the organization towards the future.

We have some useless spare parts and some bad contracts on this team to shed before I feel we are making an effort to be competitive. As long as Juan Castro and Mike Stanton are cashing checks from the Reds, I refuse to believe we are serious about competing.