PDA

View Full Version : BA: Midwest League Top 20 (2 REDS)



New Fever
09-28-2007, 11:56 AM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/264934.html

10. Drew Stubbs- if he continues like he was in the second half this year he will breakout in 2008. big time bat speed. A lot of positives.

15. Juan Francisco- best power hitter, too pull happy, has mobility/arm to stick at 3rd

dougdirt
09-28-2007, 12:12 PM
Very interesting about the Stubbs bat speed comment. Someone, who I don't recall currently, said that after watching Stubbs a few times that he was swinging a slow bat and wouldn't be able to catch up with any bigtime fastballs.

I figured Stubbs would fall somewhere in the 8-12 range on this list. I am surprised that someone like Sean Watson or Chris Valaika were not somewhere on the back end of the list....

M2
09-28-2007, 12:16 PM
With Edwin Encarnacion in the majors and Todd Frazier and Brandon Waring in the minors, I'd so trade Juan Francisco while his stock is high.

Prf15
09-28-2007, 12:30 PM
With Edwin Encarnacion in the majors and Todd Frazier and Brandon Waring in the minors, I'd so trade Juan Francisco while his stock is high.

Frazier and Waring can still be busts, it isn't a given they will preform in the big leagues.

New Fever
09-28-2007, 12:35 PM
Doug, Callis said in his ESPN chat that Sean Watson just missed and Valakia was also in the running. The MWL looks like a pretty deep league this year.

AdamDunn
09-28-2007, 12:36 PM
With Edwin Encarnacion in the majors and Todd Frazier and Brandon Waring in the minors, I'd so trade Juan Francisco while his stock is high.

Not a big fan of his plate discipline... and if I recall correctly his defense is suscpicious as well. Can anyone get some stats on that?

dougdirt
09-28-2007, 12:45 PM
Francisco made a lot of errors at third this year, but Brandon Waring made 16 in about half as much time. Neither are error proof, but Francisco has a very strong arm.

lollipopcurve
09-28-2007, 01:43 PM
With Edwin Encarnacion in the majors and Todd Frazier and Brandon Waring in the minors, I'd so trade Juan Francisco while his stock is high.

I wouldn't be eager to. He's got high ceiling LH power to all fields, and that's huge in GAB. By the time the young LH sock in the Reds lineup is getting expensive, he might be ready. He may end up at 1B, who knows, so EdE or Frazier or whoever could stay at 3B.
The only other LH bat with a modicum of power in the system is Dorn, and he's really a line drive hitter. If Waring and Frazier both develop, those are the two who are redundant, in my opinion, given that they're both righty sticks.

Kc61
09-28-2007, 02:22 PM
I wouldn't trade Juan Francisco. You have to consider his youth. This kid could stay at Dayton two more years and still be on track. He obviously has several major issues, but his power potential is extremely high based on performance so far. Ignore the "logjam" at particular positions. Not an issue this low in minor league chain.

Have to say that I am pleased Reds did well on BA's Rookie League lists, but disappointed with Midwest list and expect further disappointment as we go up the chain. Tendency is to focus on Reds prospects, but when listed with other teams' kids you realize that Reds system is pretty good but certainly nothing special. Thought Reds had a super pitching staff at Dayton in first half, yet none of those pitchers are top twenty for the League. (Some moved up pretty early, could appear on High A or AA list.)

lollipopcurve
09-28-2007, 02:36 PM
Have to say that I am pleased Reds did well on BA's Rookie League lists, but disappointed with Midwest list and expect further disappointment as we go up the chain. Tendency is to focus on Reds prospects, but when listed with other teams' kids you realize that Reds system is pretty good but certainly nothing special. Thought Reds had a super pitching staff at Dayton in first half, yet none of those pitchers are top twenty for the League. (Some moved up pretty early, could appear on High A or AA list.)

Don't fret. When it comes to having a farm system that's "special," you're really looking for those few "special" players, and the Reds have their share of those. A glowing review of Johnny Cueto means more than 3 lukewarn write-ups, in my opinion.

I'm also a little disappointed that we didn't see anyone else from Dayton in the top 20, but I think the kind of guy we may have hoped for -- Valaika, Turner (at least for me) -- is not the kind of player to light up these lists. Solid grinders. Chris Buckley has always liked this kind of position player, so far as I can tell, so I plan on getting used to having a system that tends more to the functional than the occasionally spectacular.

dougdirt
09-28-2007, 02:38 PM
The MWL was pretty strong this year, prospect wise.

As we go further up the chain, I would not be surprised to see the following guys in the FSL - Bruce and Cueto are locks. Then I could see Dorn being on there, as well as maybe a guy like Daryl Thompson, Sean Watson or someone else rounding off toward the end of the list. I also would think Travis Wood would be on there if he were to be eligible, although I don't know how many innings one has to throw to be eligble for the list.
SL - We will probably not see a whole lot here outside of Cueto with maybes from Rosales or Roenicke (if elgible).
IL - Votto, Bruce, Bailey are locks. Matt Maloney is a maybe?

It will be interesting to see where things come out though.

M2
09-28-2007, 02:44 PM
I wouldn't be eager to. He's got high ceiling LH power to all fields, and that's huge in GAB. By the time the young LH sock in the Reds lineup is getting expensive, he might be ready. He may end up at 1B, who knows, so EdE or Frazier or whoever could stay at 3B.
The only other LH bat with a modicum of power in the system is Dorn, and he's really a line drive hitter. If Waring and Frazier both develop, those are the two who are redundant, in my opinion, given that they're both righty sticks.

.301 OB. I'd punt while I had the favorable field position.

If he ends up at 1B, the Reds already have Votto. Plus, I don't want a low OB hitter at 1B or an OF corner, so he'd pretty much have to progress as a 3B for me to have an ounce of interest in him (or learn how to catch). The Reds have got Frazier, whom I prefer exponentially. I'd find someone else who was willing to construct a fantasy around Francisco and deal him for someone I really liked.

Don't get me wrong, I like that Francisco had a season that got some attention. It's just that I don't subscribe to the notion that the organization should obsessively cling to every kid in the system because you never know. Place bets on your favorites, use the rest in talent acquisition.

lollipopcurve
09-28-2007, 02:52 PM
.301 OB. I'd punt while I had the favorable field position.

Definitely a legitimate position to take. He's got some work to do.

Kc61
09-28-2007, 03:40 PM
The MWL was pretty strong this year, prospect wise.

As we go further up the chain, I would not be surprised to see the following guys in the FSL - Bruce and Cueto are locks. Then I could see Dorn being on there, as well as maybe a guy like Daryl Thompson, Sean Watson or someone else rounding off toward the end of the list. I also would think Travis Wood would be on there if he were to be eligible, although I don't know how many innings one has to throw to be eligble for the list.
SL - We will probably not see a whole lot here outside of Cueto with maybes from Rosales or Roenicke (if elgible).
IL - Votto, Bruce, Bailey are locks. Matt Maloney is a maybe?

It will be interesting to see where things come out though.

Starters -- Bailey, Cueto, and possibly Maloney (at AA) are the only starters I'd expect to see. BA doesn't usually reward numbers like Watsons' at High-A, or even Thompson's, which are a bit better. Can't see them going with Wood this year, but who knows?

Relievers -- At the AA level, the Reds have real strength in the bullpen -- Roenicke, Pelland (since promoted), Viola, Guevera (not the type for BA). Perhaps one or two of them get mention at AA, or perhaps on High-A list. They should. Roenicke was BA's top Florida State League reliever on its best tools list.

Positions -- Combining all remaining levels, the only position players with a shot would seem to be Votto and Bruce (locks if eligible) and possibly Dorn. Sleeper -- Miguel Perez hit very well after injury.

M2
09-28-2007, 04:04 PM
As we go further up the chain, I would not be surprised to see the following guys in the FSL - Bruce and Cueto are locks. Then I could see Dorn being on there, as well as maybe a guy like Daryl Thompson, Sean Watson or someone else rounding off toward the end of the list. I also would think Travis Wood would be on there if he were to be eligible, although I don't know how many innings one has to throw to be eligble for the list.

Got to figure Bruce and Cueto will be top five selections.

I'd be shocked if Watson made the list. He didn't make it in the MWL and he got his head handed him to him in the FSL.

Sure things for the FSL list should include:

Will Inman
Jason Donald
Josh Outman
Tyler Colvin
Steve Tolleson
Oswaldo Sosa
Jeff Manship
Cameron Maybin
Allen Craig
Adam Ottavino
Austin Jackson
Jose Tabata
Jacob McGee
Wade Davis

Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain would be locks, but I don't know if they threw enough innings to qualify.

So that's 16 guys counting Bruce and Cueto, potentially 18. Then you've got guys like Alcides Escovar, Jay Rainville, Colin Curtis, Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Thompson and Greg Golson. I'd be surprised if anyone else from the Sarasota club makes it, but if I had to pick a sleeper from the Reds organization here, I'd go with Jose Castro.

lollipopcurve
09-28-2007, 04:21 PM
Got to figure Bruce and Cueto will be top five selections.

I'd be shocked if Watson made the list. He didn't make it in the MWL and he got his head handed him to him in the FSL.

Sure things for the FSL list should include:

Will Inman
Jason Donald
Josh Outman
Tyler Colvin
Steve Tolleson
Oswaldo Sosa
Jeff Manship
Cameron Maybin
Allen Craig
Adam Ottavino
Austin Jackson
Jose Tabata
Jacob McGee
Wade Davis

Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain would be locks, but I don't know if they threw enough innings to qualify.

So that's 16 guys counting Bruce and Cueto, potentially 18. Then you've got guys like Alcides Escovar, Jay Rainville, Colin Curtis, Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Thompson and Greg Golson. I'd be surprised if anyone else from the Sarasota club makes it, but if I had to pick a sleeper from the Reds organization here, I'd go with Jose Castro.

Nice rundown. Carlos Carrasco will definitely be on the list -- he's a BA fave. My choice for sleeper is Roenicke, though I'm fully expecting Bruce and Cueto only.

M2
09-28-2007, 04:43 PM
Nice rundown. Carlos Carrasco will definitely be on the list -- he's a BA fave. My choice for sleeper is Roenicke, though I'm fully expecting Bruce and Cueto only.

Carrasco probably will make it. He was a mid-season All-Star in the FSL and he made the Futures Game. Did Roenicke pitch enough to qualify? If he did, so did Kennedy and Chamberlain, so that could be a double-edged sword in terms of him making the list.

lollipopcurve
09-28-2007, 04:56 PM
Did Roenicke pitch enough to qualify? If he did, so did Kennedy and Chamberlain, so that could be a double-edged sword in terms of him making the list.

Ah, good point. He's got about as much of a chance of making the list over those guys as I do. You know, we debated Kennedy last year and it looks like he's a lot better than I thought he'd be. Chamberlain, well, an arm like that should never have dropped out of the first round -- it wasn't like he was asking for big money.

dougdirt
09-28-2007, 05:52 PM
Ah, good point. He's got about as much of a chance of making the list over those guys as I do. You know, we debated Kennedy last year and it looks like he's a lot better than I thought he'd be. Chamberlain, well, an arm like that should never have dropped out of the first round -- it wasn't like he was asking for big money.

His arm wasn't like it is now during his final season in college. Thats why he dropped.

M2
09-28-2007, 08:48 PM
His arm wasn't like it is now during his final season in college. Thats why he dropped.

Yeah, there was some injury concern on him that caused him to drop late, but he definitely tumbled too far. Bet the Red Sox wish they had grabbed him instead of Kris Johnson with the pick right before the Yankees took him.

Identifying him as a reliever and using him in that role from the get-go was inspired development too.

lollipop, I think it's fair to say Kennedy's been better than everybody thought he'd be.

dougdirt
09-28-2007, 09:27 PM
M2, you aren't talking about Chamberlain being identified as a reliever and using him from the get go as one are you? He started 15 games this year in the minors.

M2
09-29-2007, 02:00 AM
M2, you aren't talking about Chamberlain being identified as a reliever and using him from the get go as one are you? He started 15 games this year in the minors.

Geez, my bad. I knew that and then forgot it. Good catch.

KittyDuran
10-02-2007, 01:33 PM
Very interesting about the Stubbs bat speed comment. Someone, who I don't recall currently, said that after watching Stubbs a few times that he was swinging a slow bat and wouldn't be able to catch up with any bigtime fastballs.

I figured Stubbs would fall somewhere in the 8-12 range on this list. I am surprised that someone like Sean Watson or Chris Valaika were not somewhere on the back end of the list....Are there any other requirements to be included on this list - as in time spent playing in the Midwest League? Watson was promoted on 6/22 and Valaika was promoted on 7/3 to Sarasota...

lollipopcurve
10-02-2007, 02:14 PM
Are there any other requirements to be included on this list - as in time spent playing in the Midwest League? Watson was promoted on 6/22 and Valaika was promoted on 7/3 to Sarasota...

I think there are requirements for the number of ABs and innings pitched, but I don't know what the numbers are specifically.

Kitty, you see lots of Dragons games, right? What did you think of the higher profile guys -- Stubbs, Francisco, Watson, Valaika? Any of these guys impress you?

KittyDuran
10-02-2007, 02:29 PM
I think there are requirements for the number of ABs and innings pitched, but I don't know what the numbers are specifically.

Kitty, you see lots of Dragons games, right? What did you think of the higher profile guys -- Stubbs, Francisco, Watson, Valaika? Any of these guys impress you?
Unfortunately for Stubbs he played in Dayton after Bruce, and Dragons fans, including myself, tended to compare the two with Drew obviously paling against Jay. He tended to be even in his offensive and defensive abilities - he batted at various positions in the lineup including leadoff.

Francisco is a junior EE - fantastic power that needs to be channeled, and very rough around the edges defensively.

Watson - cannot comment on him too much only saw him pitch once and wasn't paying too much attention to get a read.

Valaika... later (I have to work right now!) ;)

dougdirt
10-02-2007, 05:49 PM
Valaika and Watson were both eligible for this list, and both barely missed making it (likely in the 21-25 range).

KittyDuran
10-03-2007, 08:19 PM
Valaika... later OK... later is NOW! Even tho' Stubbs was the 1st pick, the real hype IMHO with this year's Dragons team was Valaika... the achievement in Billings the previous year (hitting streak) made him worth watching - AND he didn't disappoint offensively. To be honest, I didn't really pay too much attention to his defense so I would assume it was pretty adequate (for low A ball). I still maintain that I am against promotions from low A to high A ball in the middle of the season - maybe pitchers - but definately not hitters. I don't have any stats to back this up it just seems as if the players (the players I care about) seem to suffer. Or maybe it's just that I'm selfish as a Dragons fan. Dunn, Kearns, Pena, Encarncion, Votto (1/2 2003 - 1/2 2004) and Bruce all spent full seasons at low A ball. Low A ball is the first time many of these position players have played a "full" season of professional ball - starting in April and going thru to the end of August. Rookie ball is usually 3 months.

Sorry of the rant - back to Chris V... it was more than a little disappointing to see him promoted - tho' I am sure he was thrilled.

Back with some more thoughts...:)

KittyDuran
10-03-2007, 09:14 PM
OK - more thoughts on Chris...at Sarasota he struggled with numbers of .253/.310/.332. Hopefully, he will rebound and I will be looking forward to seeing him in ST next March.

lollipopcurve
10-04-2007, 10:20 AM
thanks KD -- good stuff -- I think the Reds want to keep the Dragons competitive -- that's why a guy like Turner stayed there all year

the big question for next is will they have Frazier and Cozart there, or will they be bumped to Sarasota?

M2
10-04-2007, 11:49 AM
the big question for next is will they have Frazier and Cozart there, or will they be bumped to Sarasota?

Cozart's probably ticketed for Dayton. He certainly didn't show anything that would lead a person to believe he should move up a level.

Frazier's placement will be interesting. You'd have to think that the Sarasota IF would be Parker, Turner, Valaika and Francisco in a universe without Frazier.

Does Frazier have bat enough to play in AA next year? He might. And how long does he stay at SS? He's a fascinating complication.

lollipopcurve
10-04-2007, 03:22 PM
Does Frazier have bat enough to play in AA next year? He might. And how long does he stay at SS? He's a fascinating complication.

My guess is that Frazier starts in Dayton if Valaika is still around. I really think the Reds will err on the side of conservatism when it comes to where they put guys in A ball -- they want to have a good team in Dayton -- it's really their signature minor league affiliate and squarely inside Reds country -- plus it's a great place to play. So, while Frazier may be overqualified to play there (and I think you may be right that he could survive in AA), he's going to have a lot of fun excelling in front of 8000+ there every night for part of the year. In this scenario, he stays at SS.

Ultimately, I'd love to see him get a shot at 1B -- with his athleticism and size, he could turn out to be a heckuva defensive asset over there.