PDA

View Full Version : My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)



Wheelhouse
10-03-2007, 02:34 AM
1) Hire the top manager available. Any saavy baseball man can see the Reds have great talent and are on the uptick--so a top name can be attracted to Cincy. GIVE THE NEW MANAGER FREE REIGN TO HIRE HIS COACHES. No keeping Hume or whatever insider nonsense has happened recently. If you are getting a top manager, let him freely shape his own staff.

2) Here's the real biggie. The financial position the Reds are in dictates one thing: they need to free up cash to get a #3 starter, two quality relievers, and a catcher. These were the brutal weaknesses of the club. How is it done? Those players are out there on the free agent market this year. Let's assume for arguments sake they can get one of the relievers through trade. The cost to buy the rest? It ain't pretty:
The #3 starter will cost $12 mil a year.
The other reliever $6 million
The catcher $12 million.
I may be overestimating the cost, but am I?
Teams are not trading pitching on that scale, and the best catchers in the game are the ones that could be free agents this year. These players must, and can, be BOUGHT this year.
So-------
the Reds need to clear around $30 million to make these moves. Unavoidable conclusion: Dunn and Griffey must go. I believe Seattle would take a Griffey who is in the last year of his contract and nearing 600 home Runs. And I think Jr. would agree to it. I don't like losing Dunn as he cut his errors in half, brought his average up 30 points and shaved 30 Ks off his total this year. But in order to serve the very weakest elements of the club, he must go. As must Gonzalez and Hatteberg. Now I'm sure a great wail will rise from the center of Redszone, "Then how do you replace that production?" Here's the explanation:
Griffey can not only be replaced, but eclipsed by Hamilton in production and defense. If Jay Bruce (Baseball America AND Sporting News Minor League Player of the Year) starts for the Reds and lives up to HALF the hype, CF will have juiced up production next year. After that, I'm willing to risk that Hopper, Freel, and/or Cantu can give the adequate boost to the team to make the outfield production comparable to this year. Not to mention the addition of an OF the VERY tradeable Hatteberg or Gonzalez could bring. Keppinger must replace Gonzalez, to free money. Votto must replace Hatteberg to free money. How much does that free up?
With these moves, and Saarloos and Milton off the payroll the Reds free up over $35MM. Then consider a $2 million dollar cost of releasing Stanton and you've got $33 million. See Brandon Phillips getting around $2.5-$3 million in arbitration and there you have it.
Around $30 million to fill the Reds desperate needs in a decent free agent season. As much as we hate to see Griff and Dunn go, imagine a lineup with Jorge Posada or Ivan Rodriguez in it, while giving Bruce and Hamilton more playing time? Then imagine a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, and Carlos Silva? Add Shawn Chacon to the Reds' bullpen? Then the Reds would really have a team of BALANCED quality.

RedsBaron
10-03-2007, 03:08 AM
Shawn Chacon might be good to have.
Carlos Silva had a poor 2006 but pitched okay in 2007. However, his strikeouts to innings pitched ratio has been poor for years. He averaged 3.40, 3.50 and 3.97 strikeouts per 9 innings over the last three seasons. That is a K rate that scares me.
As for Jorge Posada or Ivan Rodriguez, the former had a terrific season season in 2007 and the latter is a future Hall of Famer. Each one will be 36 years old next season. I'm not thrilled by the prospect of the Reds building their lineup around a 36 year old catcher.
These suggested moves somewhat strike me of another round of "here's the guys I want to get rid of." I'm not that concerned if the Reds don't have Griffey back, but they can afford, and should keep, Dunn.

schroomytunes
10-03-2007, 06:15 AM
Well here is my theory on some offseason moves to help us improve for next year. Feel free to pick them apart:

With the emergence of Hopper and Keppinger I think they have enabled us to have a pretty solid bench in 08, and it allows us to explore the pitching side alot more aggressively! So I begin the offseason this way:

1) Have a solid manager and coaching staff in place before FA starts! If I had my choice it would be Bob Brenly,Ken Macha, and Joe Girardi in that order.

2)Address the pitiful state of the bullpen!
-Sign Scott Linebrink to a 3yr contract to shore up middle relief
-Sign Shawn Chacon to a 2-3yr contract to be the 5th starter/Long reliever.

3)Gain Salary Relief!
-Trade Ryan Freel to anyone looking for a UTL guy....and get a prospect for him.

-Decline the option on Hatteberg...while a good player Votto/Cantu are much cheaper and more of a part of the future.

-Look at trade options for David Ross...someone will be looking at a catcher this offseason and do a David Ross/Todd Coffey offer for prospects and throw in some cash to get the deal done!

4)Starting Pitching!
-we need a 3/4 starter, why not go after Jason Jennings this offseason he had a terrible 07 and will not command the same $ this FA period and he will likely be @8 million per. He would win 10-16 games with this offense.

5)Garbage Pile Pickups!
-see who's left before Spring training and offer them the veteran minimum, someone's always left after the music stops.

LoganBuck
10-03-2007, 06:43 AM
Well here is my theory on some offseason moves to help us improve for next year. Feel free to pick them apart:

With the emergence of Hopper and Keppinger I think they have enabled us to have a pretty solid bench in 08, and it allows us to explore the pitching side alot more aggressively! So I begin the offseason this way:

1) Have a solid manager and coaching staff in place before FA starts! If I had my choice it would be Bob Brenly,Ken Macha, and Joe Girardi in that order.

2)Address the pitiful state of the bullpen!
-Sign Scott Linebrink to a 3yr contract to shore up middle relief
-Sign Shawn Chacon to a 2-3yr contract to be the 5th starter/Long reliever.

3)Gain Salary Relief!
-Trade Ryan Freel to anyone looking for a UTL guy....and get a prospect for him.

-Decline the option on Hatteberg...while a good player Votto/Cantu are much cheaper and more of a part of the future.

-Look at trade options for David Ross...someone will be looking at a catcher this offseason and do a David Ross/Todd Coffey offer for prospects and throw in some cash to get the deal done!

4)Starting Pitching!
-we need a 3/4 starter, why not go after Jason Jennings this offseason he had a terrible 07 and will not command the same $ this FA period and he will likely be @8 million per. He would win 10-16 games with this offense.

5)Garbage Pile Pickups!
-see who's left before Spring training and offer them the veteran minimum, someone's always left after the music stops.

Jennings is probably going to miss most of 08 with elbow surgery

David Ross is worth more to the Reds then trading him will bring back.

Linebrink will be very expensive based on reputation, and his peripherals were sliding at the time of his trade.

Chacon- no thanks.

RedLegSuperStar
10-03-2007, 08:05 AM
I'd like to sign Freddy Garcia on a incentive based contract (2 years for 14 million w/ chance at 8 million in incentives over those 2 years and a team option for 2010 at 12 million w/ 1 million dollar buyout). Then I would look at signing Jeremy Affeldt as the 4th starter.

That would give us a rotation of:

Harang
Arroyo
Garcia
Allfeldt
Bailey

The 2 starter signings places Belisle in the pen for long relief and as a spot starter. I would maybe make a run at one bullpen arm.. maybe Jorge Julio. Burton and Weathers are sure bets for the 8th and 9th. Stanton is signed and if doesn't pan out the first month then I would look at letting the veteran go. I think guys like Salmon, McBeth, Coutlangus, Bray, Pelland, Majewski, Coffey, Gosling, Dumatrait, Gardner, Mallett, and Roenicke will battle it out for the remaining slots.

Belisle - LR
Julio - MR
Bray - MR
Pelland - MR
Stanton - MR
Burton - SU
Weathers -CP

I think with the emergence of Hopper and Keppinger that Freel becomes expendable. I'd look to deal him for a prospect. Dunn's option should be picked up. I also think Bruce should get a chance in spring training but start the season in AAA. Javy and Ross at catcher are fine with me.. they know the staff and hopefully Ross can rebound. If this team stays healthy and do the little things to move runners along and score runners that are on 2nd and 3rd with less then 2 outs more frequently and the pitching staff pitches as well as it looks on paper and bullpen can have a below 5.00 ERA combined then we just might have a contender amongst us.

PuffyPig
10-03-2007, 08:40 AM
"Then how do you replace that production?" Here's the explanation:
Griffey can not only be replaced, but eclipsed by Hamilton in production and defense. If Jay Bruce (Baseball America AND Sporting News Minor League Player of the Year) starts for the Reds and lives up to HALF the hype, CF will have juiced up production next year. After that, I'm willing to risk that Hopper, Freel, and/or Cantu can give the adequate boost to the team to make the outfield production comparable to this year.

Replacing the production of Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey with Hamilton/Bruce/Hopper will not be pretty.

RedLegSuperStar
10-03-2007, 08:56 AM
Replacing the production of Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey with Hamilton/Bruce/Hopper will not be pretty.

Agreed.. considering Bruce has half a season at Louisville and Hamilton.. can he stay healthy? Face it.. Dunn and Griffey are needed to provide this pitching staff some run support if contending is something this team wants to achieve.

Wheelhouse
10-03-2007, 08:58 AM
Replacing the production of Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey with Hamilton/Bruce/Hopper will not be pretty.

I understand your concern, but keep in mind that Catcher would be replaced by a much higher producing hitter (and yes for only a short term deal, as Posada and Rodriguez are at the back ends of their careers). And this, while satisfying an immense need for pitching on the club. The Reds are in a terrible position, and they need to make moves that may sting a little bit for some fans, IMO.

RedLegSuperStar
10-03-2007, 09:20 AM
I understand your concern, but keep in mind that Catcher would be replaced by a much higher producing hitter (and yes for only a short term deal, as Posada and Rodriguez are at the back ends of their careers). And this, while satisfying an immense need for pitching on the club. The Reds are in a terrible position, and they need to make moves that may sting a little bit for some fans, IMO.

Both Posada and Rodriguez can not be expected 140+ games like Dunn. I think New York retains Posada and their is rumors floating that the Tigers may now decline the option for Pudge.. but their were rumors prior saying they would pick it up. Pudge does have a 3 million dollar buyout.

pahster
10-03-2007, 10:04 AM
I understand your concern, but keep in mind that Catcher would be replaced by a much higher producing hitter (and yes for only a short term deal, as Posada and Rodriguez are at the back ends of their careers).

I'm not at all convinced that Rodriguez would be anything more than a trivial offensive upgrade. Keep in mind that he had a .294 OBP this year. He hasn't been much with the stick over the last three years and it's unlikely that he would come cheap. Sounds like a waste of resources to me.

bucksfan2
10-03-2007, 10:07 AM
I dont think the reds are as bad off at C as most people think. Ross is an adequate C good at throwing out runners yet a poor offensive player. I don't mind him hitting 8th in the order and realize that every player is not going to be a top tier offensive and defensive player. Here are my thought for this offseason. I think this is a VERY important offseason for the future of the reds organizatoin.

1. Manager. I dont really want Larussa because I don't know how much fire he will have. He is a good manager but his ego and age don't work for me with this club. I like a guy like Girardi but wonder about his 1 season as a manager.

2. Get rid of dead weight
-Coffey must go. He has shown that his trips down to AAA have not helped him become a better pitcher.
-Freel must go. His value isn't that high that you can't replace him. Maybe trade him to Atl who may be looking for a flexible guy to play CF since Jones won't be back.
-Hatty must go. He did nothing to hurt his stock as a red. However he is old and the reds have a better replacement.
-Stanton gets a month. If he doesn't improve you DFA him like Frenchie.
-Valentine is gotten rid of. Either by not picking up his option or picking it up and trading him. His real value is as a swing for the fences PH.
-Gonzo must be floated as trade bait. Gonzo had a decent season when you consider what he was dealing with. However his only value is as a starter. He has a friendly contract which may increase his value and is a good defensive SS with some pop. I just don't know how you keep Keppy out of the lineup if he continues to hit in the .330's. You also have Lopez as a defensive player if Keppy doesn't pan out.

3. Outfield decisions.
Hamilton/Dunn/Jr. are the outfielders right now. Hamilton should be in the lineup every day. Dunn's option should be picked up and Jr. should be shopped. I don't think Jr. goes to Seattle because that is a long way from home. He was a great salesman when he was there this year but I just don't see it. The Yanks or Mets may be places but don't know if he goes. Dunn's option is only not picked up if the reds plan on going after Hunter or Jones. I dont see it so Dunn will be back. Bruce will have a chance to earn a spot in spring training but I don't think he forces anyone out.

4.Pitching
Do you go outside or do you promote from within. The only starters I forsee as locks are Harang/Arroyo/Bailey. Shern will have a leg up on the competition in the spring and I think Belisle is looking at the pen. I tell Belisle that I want him for 1+ innings and I want him to be max effort in those innings. I look for a starter in the FA market but I don't know if there is an upgrade out there. I give Cueto and Maloney a shot to make the team in the spring but think both will end up in AAA. The pen will be improved with Burton and Weathers at the end.

5. Trades
Who gets traded and for what? This is what I think will be most important in this offseason. Over the past 2 years not only has Krivsky improved the depth of the team he has also made several player expendable who have major league contracts. If the reds do trade does it help the reds now or in the future.

6. FA/ Rule V
I have no clue what happens here. I don't know who they go after, what, or even if they sign anyone. I would love to se some wheeling and dealing and getting a guy like Jones or Hunter but don't see the ownership opening up their pocket books. Also what is the pay roll going to be? Does management give the fans something and spend more or do they stay thrifty for next season? Also as long as Krivsky is GM I would expect to see at least one Rule Ver make the team.

M2
10-03-2007, 10:19 AM
There is no #3 starter in the free agent market. Some might argue Silva, but that would be like throwing good money down a rabbit hole, IMO.

Jorge Posada's not coming to Cincinnati. Outside of Posada (who's no spring chicken), there's probably not a single catcher in all of baseball who's worth and needs to be paid (due to service time) $12M. There certainly isn't a catcher other than Posada worth any sort of major investment in the free agent market.

The reliever market for free agency is incredibly thin as well. Francisco Cordero is pretty much the lone ranger (or perhaps I should say Brewer).

So you can't buy the talent in this area. You have to trade for it. And if you're looking for an established starter, established relievers and an established catcher then what it's going to take to trade for them is prospects and inexpensive major leaguers. Teams usually only trade established talents in rebuilding schemes.

What I'm saying here Wheelhouse is that you've built this plan on faulty premises. What you've basically got is a plan for the team to perform self-mutilation (not picking up Dunn's option) and then blowing huge sums of money on what would be an even worse team.

BuckeyeRedleg
10-03-2007, 10:21 AM
Wayne's to-do list


1. Pick up Dunn's option and feel stupid if you were even not considering it.

2. Pick up Javy's $1.3M option for '08. Between he and Ross ($2.5M), you got a solid catching platoon for under $4M.

3. Try to deal Gonzo somewhere closer to home (for him). If you can't deal him, don't sweat it. Just see what you can get.

4. Harang is untouchable. Repeat this over and over to yourself each morning. Do not even entertain the thought of trading him.

5. If the deal is right, consider dealing Arroyo. It has to be real good though.

6. You screwed up paying Coffey. Get over it. Stuff happens. Hope he figures it out and makes an impact in the 'pen in '08

7. Congrat's on Brandon Phillips. He's a bona fide super-duper star. Be fair to him in arbitration. Watch him closely in '08 and consider a long-term deal after if he's, indeed, the real deal.

8. Find yourself some bullpen help in Free Agency. If ownership loosens it's pursestrings, consider a closer. Francisco Cordero would be nice although probably unrealistic.

9. Avoid an expensive Free Agent starter. Belisle will be cheap and decent. He will improve. Harang is an ace. Arroyo is solid. Hopefully Bailey is ready to take the next step. Cueto could be a bonus. Shearn can hold down #5 at worst case, however, if you can get Lohse cheap, bring him back.

10. LET GO:

-Buyout Hatteberg's option for '08 and say "thanks and goodbye." ($150K)

-If Guardado wants to stay he can sign a minor league deal with incentives if he makes the big club. No 1-year, $3M deal.

-Bye bye, Kirk Saarloos. Be kind to us when you are lighting it up pitching out of the pen in St. Louie. You stink as a Red.

-Bye bye, Jason Ellison. I believe he's arb eligible and even if he wasn't he wouldn't be worth a roster spot.

-If Gary Majewski is deemed arb eligible (he had 2.039 yrs service coming into 2007), let him go. If not, pay him the minimum.

-Bye bye, Phil Dumatrait. Do not leave him on the 40-man. If he's taken in the Rule V, so be it.

-Same with Ryan Hanigan and our boy Keymastur (Jorgensen).


11. TRY TO TRADE:

If they could somehow deal Freel ($7M over '08 & '09), Stanton ($3.5M including '09 buyout), Castro ($1.075 including '09 buyout), and Griffey (16.5M including '09 buyout) I would be thrilled. Griffey and Freel are the only two (of the above) that are realistic from a trade perspective. I wouldn't expect much in exchange for either, unless the Reds can throw some cash with them. Castro will remain the highest paid bench coach in baseball, that just happens to occupy a roster spot. Stanton should do everyone a favor and retire.

RedEye
10-03-2007, 11:21 AM
I understand your concern, but keep in mind that Catcher would be replaced by a much higher producing hitter (and yes for only a short term deal, as Posada and Rodriguez are at the back ends of their careers). And this, while satisfying an immense need for pitching on the club. The Reds are in a terrible position, and they need to make moves that may sting a little bit for some fans, IMO.

While I agree that the Reds may need to make some deals that "sting" a little bit, I sure hope that they don't choose to make the deals that you predict.

IMO, they just can't trade both Griffey and Dunn and hope to have an offense worth beans. Sure, I wouldn't mind giving Bruce and Hamilton a chance to shine, but I don't think it's prudent to put too much faith in a rookie and an injury-prone guy in his second year. Hopper is a bench player. Period.

Ross isn't great, but we haven't really had a great offensive catcher for awhile (and really there are very few of them in the majors right now... Mauer, Martin, Posada, maybe I-Rod although he never walks). I'm content with a platoon of Javy and Ross because of that... unless we can trade for a YOUNG catcher like Jeff Clement (currently stuck behind Johjima in Seattle).

I do whole-heartedly agree with you about the pitching, so I might be willing to part with Griff or Dunn for the right deal. If one of them is traded, however, we absolutely need to get back at least a reliable innings-eater. Again, I'm not sure how many of them there are out there, but I sure hope Wayne is hitting the phones yesterday.

dfs
10-03-2007, 11:36 AM
So you can't buy the talent in this area. You have to trade for it. And if you're looking for an established starter, established relievers and an established catcher then what it's going to take to trade for them is prospects and inexpensive major leaguers. Teams usually only trade established talents in rebuilding schemes.


Quoted for truth.

The reds need to fix the starting pitching. Anybody and everybody is on the table to that end. They have enough talent, and enough diverse talent, that everybody is available for the right deal.

The facts are .....
Given his injury status and contract, Junior is probably not tradable.
Given his contract status Dunn is not tradable.

Just a thought with the option picked up is Scott Hatteberg worth anything in the trade market? I would think given the price he could be a nice throw-in part of a deal.

Highlifeman21
10-03-2007, 11:44 AM
Unavoidable conclusion: Dunn and Griffey must go.

This caught my attention. But then you lost me when you suggested
After that, I'm willing to risk that Hopper, Freel, and/or Cantu can give the adequate boost to the team to make the outfield production comparable to this year.

Hopper is a 4th OF who made the most of his opportunity this year, but unfortunately has a very limited skill set in an OBP very largely driven by AVG, and his AVG is based largely on his speed. Hopper can't SLG his way out of a wet paper bag, so while his OBP was encouraging this year, I can't imagine he'd duplicate, maintain, and or improve on that number going forward if he was forced to double his PA, which would be a direct result of trading both Griffey and Dunn over the offseason.


Unfortunately, I think you're completely off base with holding Carlos Silva in high regards.


Then imagine a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, and Carlos Silva?

If Carlos Silva is our #3, making presumably #3 money, then we've substantially hurt our team financially going forward. That would be a Milton-esque contract, with predictably similar to slightly better results in terms of production.

Tom Servo
10-03-2007, 12:08 PM
The main focus Wayne should have this offseason is pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Definatly keep Dunn, shop Griffey if you can get a good haul otherwise keep him. But the rotation and bullpen need a lot of work.

remdog
10-03-2007, 12:13 PM
The Reds already have a #3 starter. His name is Bronson Arroyo. We need a #2.

Rem

RedsManRick
10-03-2007, 12:20 PM
Rem, who is an example of a guy who is distinctly worse than Aaron Harang and distinctly better than Arroyo?

redsmetz
10-03-2007, 12:23 PM
The main focus Wayne should have this offseason is pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Definatly keep Dunn, shop Griffey if you can get a good haul otherwise keep him. But the rotation and bullpen need a lot of work.

This would be my approach. If nothing worthwhile surfaces for Griffey, start the season with him and see what the trade market looks like as the year progresses towards the trade deadline. Bruce starting in Louisville doesn't hurt and allows him to move up if we trade Junior.

jojo
10-03-2007, 12:34 PM
The first thing the Reds need to do in their annual off season *taking stock* meetings is to estimate as accurately as possible how many wins it will take to win their division next season. IMHO, 87 seems like a reasonable goal based upon recent history.

Next they need to determine just how many wins they can expect next season if they maintain the status quo. For the sake of argument (because I haven't spent enough time thinking about this yet to really feel confident about an estimate), lets say hypothetically their '07 pythag would be a reasonable expectation for next year (i.e 75 wins).

Assuming those estimates are reasonable, they're 12 wins away from where they need to be. So the next thing they need to determine is how likely is it that they can close this gap in one year. This is the painful decision IMHO but it's a vital one and how accurately they answer it and how their answer colors their off season decisions could effect the health of the organisation for the next half decade.

It's very unlikely that forays into this upcoming free agent market will result in a 12 win improvement (really it's probably unlikely for any team to improve themselves by 12 wins solely via free agency). Spending $30M to get to 80 wins is a collossal waist of money from a return perspective as it's almost certain to result in lost revenue (whereas spending $30M to get from 83 to 88 wins in the above scenario is a very wise move given both the immediate and future payoff reaped from a playoff appearance).

My first impression before more serious contemplation is that their best course for next year is a youth movement. Votto, Hamilton, EE, Bruce in the field and Bailey, Maloney, Belisle in the rotation with Cueto either making the rotation 6 deep or auditioning for a role as a high leverage bullpen arm (which makes a lot of sense).

Gone should be Jr, Weathers, Stanton, Guardado, Saarloos etc. If Dunn can be traded for a return that clearly helps the Reds future, then I guess Jr can be the obligatory third outfielder (though it's clear Jr plays no part in the Reds future while keeping Dunn buys the Reds ore time to decide if he should be). BTW, Seattle doesn't want Jr.

It's possible the Reds might accomplish more by reducing payroll than by raising it this off season.

KronoRed
10-03-2007, 12:45 PM
Dunn shouldn't go anywhere for now, didn't we all see down the stretch how bad the O can be without him and JR?

There will be plenty of cash available even with Dunn and JR back, move JR and even more is there, but throwing cash at marginal free agent players because that's the best there is Eric Milton all over again, save it for the trade market.

dfs
10-03-2007, 02:31 PM
Dunn can't be traded. They either pick up the option or let him go. If they pick up the option, they can't trade him till June and then he can say where he will and won't go.

Likewise with Junior's injury history I don't think Junior is going to bring much in return.

On the other hand, the reds could probably get value for Hamilton or Bruce, but that's not a winning game.

Again, the reds can't focus on "who they want to get rid of." They need to listen to offers for everybody and make good decisions.

bucksfan2
10-03-2007, 02:44 PM
The first thing the Reds need to do in their annual off season *taking stock* meetings is to estimate as accurately as possible how many wins it will take to win their division next season. IMHO, 87 seems like a reasonable goal based upon recent history.

Next they need to determine just how many wins they can expect next season if they maintain the status quo. For the sake of argument (because I haven't spent enough time thinking about this yet to really feel confident about an estimate), lets say hypothetically their '07 pythag would be a reasonable expectation for next year (i.e 75 wins).

Assuming those estimates are reasonable, they're 12 wins away from where they need to be. So the next thing they need to determine is how likely is it that they can close this gap in one year. This is the painful decision IMHO but it's a vital one and how accurately they answer it and how their answer colors their off season decisions could effect the health of the organisation for the next half decade.

It's very unlikely that forays into this upcoming free agent market will result in a 12 win improvement (really it's probably unlikely for any team to improve themselves by 12 wins solely via free agency). Spending $30M to get to 80 wins is a collossal waist of money from a return perspective as it's almost certain to result in lost revenue (whereas spending $30M to get from 83 to 88 wins in the above scenario is a very wise move given both the immediate and future payoff reaped from a playoff appearance).

My first impression before more serious contemplation is that their best course for next year is a youth movement. Votto, Hamilton, EE, Bruce in the field and Bailey, Maloney, Belisle in the rotation with Cueto either making the rotation 6 deep or auditioning for a role as a high leverage bullpen arm (which makes a lot of sense).

Gone should be Jr, Weathers, Stanton, Guardado, Saarloos etc. If Dunn can be traded for a return that clearly helps the Reds future, then I guess Jr can be the obligatory third outfielder (though it's clear Jr plays no part in the Reds future while keeping Dunn buys the Reds ore time to decide if he should be). BTW, Seattle doesn't want Jr.

It's possible the Reds might accomplish more by reducing payroll than by raising it this off season.

JoJo I agree and disagree with you assesment. I agree that the reds need to "take stock" I just disagree with the methods you suggest. I would be hard pressed to believe that Krivsky would put much stock into someone's pythag win loss prediction. I think they need an honest evaulation with where they are, which direction they are going, and what they can accomplish this year. I think its important that throughout the offseason and spring they do their best to keep the best 25 players on the active roster.

The reds won 72 games this year and were a disappointment. I don't think its that hard to expect that with a little tinkering they could have been .500 this year. I also dont think its that hard to think that with better management, a more experienced bullpen, the influx of young talent, and a better bench to think that the reds are a much improved team even at the end of the season then they were at the begining. Here is the thing. Burton is now a much better reliever than he was at the beginning of the season. Both Votto and Bailey have shown flashes when given the opportunity. A bench with Keppy and Cantu sure beats anything the reds started with.


I think Wayne has shown the ability to improve his organization time after time. Some of his moves are contraverisal however they all are done with purpose. He has been able to flip overvalued minor league players for talented players who have seem to fall out of organizatoinal favor for one reason or another. The key to this offseason is WK's ability to get rid of some dead weight while seing what he does, if anything, in the FA market esp if he signs a more expensive free agent. A Miltonesque contract with Milton's production would be very very bad for this ball club.

RedsBaron
10-03-2007, 02:51 PM
And this, while satisfying an immense need for pitching on the club.

Unfortunately, I doubt that Carlos Silva and Shawn Chacon would satisfy the Reds need for pitching.

jojo
10-03-2007, 02:56 PM
I would be hard pressed to believe that Krivsky would put much stock into someone's pythag win loss prediction.

I wasn't suggesting that Krivsky use the Red's '07 pythag record as part of the process.

BRM
10-03-2007, 02:59 PM
Dunn can't be traded. They either pick up the option or let him go. If they pick up the option, they can't trade him till June and then he can say where he will and won't go.


That's not entirely accurate. Assuming the option is picked up, Dunn would have a full no-trade clause until June 15th. After the 15th, he has a limited no-trade that allows him to specify 10 teams he would accept a trade to.

The Reds could trade Dunn this winter if they really wanted to. It would just require him to approve the deal by waiving his no-trade clause.

dfs
10-03-2007, 04:03 PM
That's not entirely accurate. Assuming the option is picked up, Dunn would have a full no-trade clause until June 15th. After the 15th, he has a limited no-trade that allows him to specify 10 teams he would accept a trade to.

The Reds could trade Dunn this winter if they really wanted to. It would just require him to approve the deal by waiving his no-trade clause.
There's no reason Dunn would waive that clause without significant cash payout. That means you're dealing away Adam Dunn on a one year deal and you're paying cash for the privlige of doing so.

The reds would have to be overwhelmed with the deal. This falls into the "I listen to offers for everybody" pile, but effectively Dunn and Junior not tradable. The reds front office can't afford to deal away specific players. They have to make the best deals to fill the holes they have.

Hoosier Red
10-03-2007, 04:11 PM
I sign Livan Hernandez and give him the same instructions Arizona did, pitch 7 innings a game, come hell or high water.
This will enable the bullpen(with two new arms) to come in and save Bailey and Belisle when necessary in the 5th or 6th inning without being over run.

You lose some games like that by giving up early, but as Arizona proved it may be beneficial in the long run.

bucksfan2
10-03-2007, 04:33 PM
There's no reason Dunn would waive that clause without significant cash payout. That means you're dealing away Adam Dunn on a one year deal and you're paying cash for the privlige of doing so.

The reds would have to be overwhelmed with the deal. This falls into the "I listen to offers for everybody" pile, but effectively Dunn and Junior not tradable. The reds front office can't afford to deal away specific players. They have to make the best deals to fill the holes they have.

I disagree. Dunn will become a FA next offseason unless he decides to sign before then. If a team came along that Dunn either wanted to play for or a team that was a legit post season contender I could see Dunn waiving the no trade clause. It basically protects Dunn from being traded to a situation in which he doesn't want to bo in.

Razor Shines
10-03-2007, 05:19 PM
The catcher $12 million.
I understand your concern, but keep in mind that Catcher would be replaced by a much higher producing hitter (and yes for only a short term deal, as Posada and Rodriguez are at the back ends of their careers).

I'd rather keep the catchers we have and spend the money to keep Dunn. Then we don't have to hope that an aging catcher can replace Dunn's production Spending 12 mil on Pudge would be a complete waste IMO. Jorge's a nice player but he's old and no way he'd come here. Even if Jorge was going to have another season like he had this year, I'd still take Dunn for a myriad of reasons not the least of which is age.

remdog
10-03-2007, 09:15 PM
RMR: Arroyo was a #3 this year. Feel free to research it, write a tome and publish it here on Redszone. I know you love to do that stuff. I, on the other hand, don't want to waste the valuable breaths I have left on this earth to do that exercise simply to duplicate something that my eyes have already shown me. Not blowing you off, I'm just not interested in the exercise. (famous shrug).

OK, so we need a #2 (which I don't think we'll get) but maybe we can get a #3 without giving up a King's ransom. If so, we've got a #1, 2 #3's and two guys named 'hope' and 'prayer' to fill out the back end. My 'hope' is that Homer is the #4 or even a #3. My prayer is that Belisle, Shern or some guy named scrapheap fill in the #5 spot until Cueto or someone else from the farm steps up around All-Star break. At this point, that's the best I see the Reds doing in starting pitching.

In the bully I'm willing to move Weathers if it helps get us that #3 mentioned above. I'm willing to roll the dice on Burton, Salmon, McBeth, Bray and so on in the bullpen to find one guy that can match Weathers' performance in '07. In my opinion, that's doable. Everyday Eddie can come back only if he goes with an incentave laden contract.

Anyone even thinking about not picking up Dunner's option should be wearing an 'S' on his chest----and that doesn't stand for Superman. (Hint: it's a six letter word meaning 'not too bright'.) Trade Griffey if ya' can but I don't think it'll happen so I'm taking comfort in watching Jr.'s 600th HR come in a Cincinnati uniform. I just hope it's in early May rather than late July. I personally think that Hamilton will put durability issues to rest next year with an offseason designed around conditioning along with the confidance that comes from knowing that, not only can he play the game at the MLB level, but that he can be a standout. If that outfield can provide the bulk of the playing time it's a strength that few other teams can match offensively. Defensively, well.....

I'd release Hatterberg and go with Votto and Cantu at first with Votto getting the bulk of the playing time unless he proves he can't handle it. Phillips and EdE are set. Keppinger makes a great addition to the bench but I wasn't too happy with Gonzo at SS in '07. Maybe his outside issues and injuries clear up over the offseason and he rebounds but if I can move him to get that #3 pitcher I'll take my chances with Kepp as the starter at SS.

Freel and Hopper make the bench better but, again, if one of them has to go to swing a trade for a pitcher, I'm willing to pull the trigger.

Valross sucks as the catcher but, honestly, there's very little in the way of good catching in the majors right now and I'll echo others' thoughts that it's not worth wasteing millions of dollars to take a long-shot on Pudge or Jorge. We're probably going to have to live with what we've got and hope one of them plays the season unconscious.

Darn! The season's over but there are some good topics on the board. Just my luck to have to jump on a plane again in the morning. :thumbdown

Rem

RedsManRick
10-03-2007, 10:49 PM
RMR: Arroyo was a #3 this year. Feel free to research it, write a tome and publish it here on Redszone. I know you love to do that stuff.

I think I should have more clearly stated my point. I'll concede that Arroyo was a #3 this year - in so far as he was about the 3rd best starter on an average team. Of course, he was an ace last year. So which is he? The idea that he's "a #3" as some definitive statement, as if it were the same as "he's a man" or "he's a righty" is just as silly as asserting last year that he's "an ace". He's the same guy -- namely a guy who will put up an ERA around 4.00.

If Harang is a #1 with an ERA of 3.75 and Arroyo is a #3 with an ERA of 4ish, that doesn't leave very much room for a #2. And if you're going to tell me Arroyo is a 4.25 guy and a #2 is around 4.00, I'd say that the distinction of a quarter of a run of ERA isn't meaningful in terms of trying to predict what a given pitcher is going to do in a given year.

My point was that the dinstinction between Harang (a clear ace) and Arroyo is not such that we can find somebody who is better than Arroyo and Harang. We need another guy who's not a back of the rotation starter. Check. I agree. But the assignment of him as a #3 and the assertion that we need a #2 (ie. somebody better than him, but not as good as Harang) is just sort of nonsensical to me.

Or maybe you can give an example of a pitcher you can consider a #2 so I can write my tome on why he's really not that different from either Harang or Arroyo. Or maybe you want to go down the "Harang isn't really an ace" hole.

remdog
10-03-2007, 11:39 PM
RMR: I think we are prety much on the same point. Whether it's designated as #2 or #3 I think we agree that we need some pitching at the top of the rotation---Arroyo is what he is. As for an ERA of 4.00 or 4.25, this is where stats get in the way for me. Statistically, .25 ERA is relatively insignificant. But the difference between Harang and Arroyo, in a pure pitching sense, isn't.

I'm not knocking stats. I just think that most people here recognize a need (shrug, not even famous), stats or not.

I'm sitting here watching the D'backs and the Cubs go at it and I'm frustrated that the Cubs can go from last to the Division Title while the Reds continue to tread water in the second division.

Rem

Wheelhouse
10-03-2007, 11:58 PM
RMR: I think we are prety much on the same point. Whether it's designated as #2 or #3 I think we agree that we need some pitching at the top of the rotation---Arroyo is what he is. As for an ERA of 4.00 or 4.25, this is where stats get in the way for me. Statistically, .25 ERA is relatively insignificant. But the difference between Harang and Arroyo, in a pure pitching sense, isn't.

I'm not knocking stats. I just think that most people here recognize a need (shrug, not even famous), stats or not.

I'm sitting here watching the D'backs and the Cubs go at it and I'm frustrated that the Cubs can go from last to the Division Title while the Reds continue to tread water in the second division.

Rem
The Cubs went and got the best manager available and spent heavily on pitching. The only way the Reds can do that is to shed their biggest salaried hitters and hope their talented young players pick up the slack.

remdog
10-04-2007, 12:06 AM
The Cubs went and got the best manager available and spent heavily on pitching. The only way the Reds can do that is to shed their biggest salaried hitters and hope their talented young players pick up the slack.

That's wrong. The way that the Reds can do that is for the owner to suck it up and realize that doing some 'investment spending' now will pay dividends for years to come.

To paraphrase, 'if ya' wanta' run with the big dogs ya' gotta' get off the porch'.

Rem

Chip R
10-04-2007, 12:33 AM
The Cubs went and got the best manager available and spent heavily on pitching. The only way the Reds can do that is to shed their biggest salaried hitters and hope their talented young players pick up the slack.


The Cubs did get the best manager available and did spend highly on pitching. But they also spent a lot of money on Soriano and had already extended Ramirez' contract along with paying Dereck Lee a nice amount of money. So let's not make anyone think that the Cubs are doing it with pitching and just paying everyone else peanuts.

RedsBaron
10-04-2007, 06:14 AM
The Cubs went and got the best manager available and spent heavily on pitching. The only way the Reds can do that is to shed their biggest salaried hitters and hope their talented young players pick up the slack.

The Cubs drive in September to win the NL Central was lead by Alfonso Soriano, who hit 14 HRs that month. Soriano was signed by the Cubs prior to this season to an 8 year contract worth about $136,000,000, or roughly $17,000,000 a season.
If you want to believe that the Reds can win a championship only if they get rid of their best hitters, have at it--but the 2007 Chicago Cubs do not help that argument.

Wheelhouse
10-04-2007, 07:09 AM
The Cubs drive in September to win the NL Central was lead by Alfonso Soriano, who hit 14 HRs that month. Soriano was signed by the Cubs prior to this season to an 8 year contract worth about $136,000,000, or roughly $17,000,000 a season.
If you want to believe that the Reds can win a championship only if they get rid of their best hitters, have at it--but the 2007 Chicago Cubs do not help that argument.

Agreed! The Cubs spent heavily on Soriano, and his performance was a big part of their drive to win the division. There is no way the Reds can muster those kind of dollars. The Cubs sellout every year and have a National TV contract. The Reds have to gamble that their young players will blossom into the franchise players they have been touted to be (Hamilton, Bruce, Votto) in order to shed the payroll to afford to shore up their horrid weaknesses. The gamble may work next year. It may not. It's a gamble. But spending $20+ million dollars on Jr. and Dunn when you have two of the best young outfield prospects in the game, and gaping deficiencies in the pitching staff, is the path to another sub-.500 finish. Thems the hard facts.

bucksfan2
10-04-2007, 08:35 AM
Agreed! The Cubs spent heavily on Soriano, and his performance was a big part of their drive to win the division. There is no way the Reds can muster those kind of dollars. The Cubs sellout every year and have a National TV contract. The Reds have to gamble that their young players will blossom into the franchise players they have been touted to be (Hamilton, Bruce, Votto) in order to shed the payroll to afford to shore up their horrid weaknesses. The gamble may work next year. It may not. It's a gamble. But spending $20+ million dollars on Jr. and Dunn when you have two of the best young outfield prospects in the game, and gaping deficiencies in the pitching staff, is the path to another sub-.500 finish. Thems the hard facts.

True. The cubs spent a pretty penny on Soriano for the now and it will haunt them in the future. They also forked over a lot of money for average to less than average starting pitching which will help them now but will cost them in the future. Basically they mortgaged the future for the now. I would love to see the reds do that but I just dont think it is practical. On the other hand the reds could serve to up the payroll. I dont know by what exact number but they do have a TV deal that televises every game that isn't a day game, a radio network, and a large (although shrinking) fan base. They aren't going to sell out like the cubs because lets face it GABP can't hold a candle to the atmosphere and actual park that Wrigley is. However I think they can sell quite a few more tickets and average more fans if they put a good club on the field.

The problem with the reds and spending money is that they can't miss. They can sign the Eric Milton's of the world. They can't extend the Danny Graves or Sean Casey. They need to realize when a player has reached his peak value and when it is time to discard guys. They need to stay away from high dollar contracts that will pay players well into their unproducive years. Most importantly they need to throw loyality out the window and become a cut throat organizatoin thats main goal is putting a competitive team on the field.

RedsBaron
10-04-2007, 09:01 AM
Agreed! The Cubs spent heavily on Soriano, and his performance was a big part of their drive to win the division. There is no way the Reds can muster those kind of dollars. The Cubs sellout every year and have a National TV contract. The Reds have to gamble that their young players will blossom into the franchise players they have been touted to be (Hamilton, Bruce, Votto) in order to shed the payroll to afford to shore up their horrid weaknesses. The gamble may work next year. It may not. It's a gamble. But spending $20+ million dollars on Jr. and Dunn when you have two of the best young outfield prospects in the game, and gaping deficiencies in the pitching staff, is the path to another sub-.500 finish. Thems the hard facts.

Yet you are advocating on this thread that the Reds spend the money to acquire a 36 year old catcher. Reports are that Pudge wants $13,000,000 from the Tigers or he will go elsewhere.

RedEye
10-04-2007, 09:31 AM
I'd much rather the Reds keep Adam Dunn for $13 million than sign Pudge Rodriguez for the same. I agree that the Reds need to give their young prospects a place to play and that they need to try to get more pitching. I just don't think they should give up both of their best hitters to do so. Frankly, it's unlikely that they will get quality pitching for Dunn and Griffey anyway--or at least not pitching that will be quality in the short term. That's why I've been advocating trading Brandon Phillips. Much as I love BP, that's the sort of "sting" that might actually bring the Reds back some quality pitching for next year. It's also the kind of move that takes a gamble on a player's highest value.

RedlegJake
10-04-2007, 02:11 PM
Here's my take - maybe I'm way off base but folks keeping harping on the money Dunn will make, the money Junior makes, even the money Gonzo makes as if getting rid of these contracts will magically produce the silver armed studs that take the Reds over the top. The contracts for players who produce are NOT the contracts that kill your team. Had Eric Milton pitched like a $10 million dollar pitcher the Reds would have had a rotation of 2 Harangs and an Arroyo this season. Had Ross and Valentin hit enough to merit their increase the catching tandem would've produced much more offense - both were putrid the first half and merely adequate the second. Had Stanton earned his money, Coffey his raise and Maj merely pitching league average the bullpen would have been much much better all year long, and youngsters like Burton, Bray and MacBeth backing them up would have people talking about what a great pen the Reds have. Not even mentioning eating Cormier's contract dollars for nothing. Dunn at 13 million is nothing compared to his production. Look at the players who cost their team's even more and we have a heckuva bargain. The Reds don't need to sell off their offense and pray that Hammie can play more than 100 games or that a wet-behind-the ears kid can replace Dunn or Junior's numbers in his rookie year. Small market teams like Cincy CAN afford Dunn and still afford good pitching. What they can't afford is big contracts for BAD pitching. Or big contracts for BAD offense. In other words - it ain't the horses who run the race that eat too much oats- its the nags who never leave the paddock what cost too much. It's not the right contracts that have been killing the Reds - its the wrong ones.

RedsBaron
10-04-2007, 03:38 PM
In other words - it ain't the horses who run the race that eat too much oats- its the nags who never leave the paddock what cost too much. It's not the right contracts that have been killing the Reds - its the wrong ones.

:clap::thumbup: Getting rid of Adam Dunn because the Reds pitching stinks is roughly equivalent to the the Bengals realizing that their defense stinks and deciding to get rid of Carson Palmer.

KronoRed
10-04-2007, 06:01 PM
:clap::thumbup: Getting rid of Adam Dunn because the Reds pitching stinks is roughly equivalent to the the Bengals realizing that their defense stinks and deciding to get rid of Carson Palmer.

Another good one from RedsBaron :clap:

Highlifeman21
10-04-2007, 06:45 PM
:clap::thumbup: Getting rid of Adam Dunn because the Reds pitching stinks is roughly equivalent to the the Bengals realizing that their defense stinks and deciding to get rid of Carson Palmer.

The analogy to trump all analogies.