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ChatterRed
10-03-2007, 03:59 PM
Josh Hamilton is our best trade bait.

He's a 5 tool player, good defensively and on the basepaths, and he's still very cheap. He has been chronically injured his entire career and my gut feeling is that he will be for most of his career.

I see no takers for Griffey. I'd try and trade Griffey first, but when that failed, I'd move to seeking trade offers for Hamilton. Why? Because we have his replacement in triple AAA, Jay Bruce.

I believe Hamilton could bring a #2 or #3 starter and would solidify the rotation.

SP - Harang
SP - Arroyo
SP - pitcher acquired in trade for Josh Hamilton
SP - Bailey
SP - Cueto or a free agent signing

That rotation doesn't look too bad, does it?

Will M
10-03-2007, 04:08 PM
Josh Hamilton is our best trade bait.

He's a 5 tool player, good defensively and on the basepaths, and he's still very cheap. He has been chronically injured his entire career and my gut feeling is that he will be for most of his career.

I see no takers for Griffey. I'd try and trade Griffey first, but when that failed, I'd move to seeking trade offers for Hamilton. Why? Because we have his replacement in triple AAA, Jay Bruce.

I believe Hamilton could bring a #2 or #3 starter and would solidify the rotation.

SP - Harang
SP - Arroyo
SP - pitcher acquired in trade for Josh Hamilton
SP - Bailey
SP - Cueto or a free agent signing

That rotation doesn't look too bad, does it?

IMO - no way do I trade Hamilton. Griffey ( or Dunn ) goes to make room for Bruce. A small market team like the Reds needs the young cheap players. Plus the Reds defense improves with Hamilton and Bruce in the OF.

HalMorrisRules
10-03-2007, 04:21 PM
I loved every minute that Hamilton was on the field, but if we can get a #2 or #3 for him, he has to be dealt. But other teams will not give up a #2 or #3 because they would be leery of his injury history. And Griffey isn't bringing ANYTHING back let alone a #2 or #3. Besides, after seven years as a Red, I would feel cheated to see him hit #600 as a member of another team, with the possible exception of the Mariners.

stevekun
10-03-2007, 04:31 PM
NO WAY!!! Hamilton is our future....

podgejeff_
10-03-2007, 04:39 PM
How could we say no to a legit #2 or #3 starter for a guy who we picked up practically for free? While I think Hamilton is awesome and definitely someone who should have a high price tag, he's had several injuries already. That might mean nothing, or it might mean he's going to be an injury prone outfielder that'll spend half his time on the DL. His value is really high right now because of his potential, low cost, and initial results.

The Reds organization produces star outfielders like nobody's business. And we all pretty much agree we could use a proven #2 or #3 pitcher. I could see saying no to an older pitcher who we'd only have for a little bit, but if that starter is young and cheap I say we take him every day of the week for Hamilton.

GoReds33
10-03-2007, 04:42 PM
They won't trade Hamilton unless it is for a terrific pitcher. I emphasize the terrific. He would have to be a number one starter, or a bullpen guy like Chad Cordero.

Carolina Red
10-03-2007, 04:51 PM
Hamilton and Philips are the last players I would trade. As hot a commodity as pitching is I seriously doubt anyone is going to want to trade a great young major league pitcher, even for a player as good as Hamilton. Everyone needs pitching. Our best bet is to continue to let Wayne do his thing. He will get us pitching. We still have the FA market and we will have Milton's money and maybe Dunn's to work with. We also have Homer and Cueto still developing. The Reds are still a couple of season's away. Right now the most important thing they need to do is hire a great manager who will be here for the long haul.

Degenerate39
10-03-2007, 04:55 PM
If Dunn can't get the Reds a 3rd Starter then Hamilton sure as heck isn't.

Screwball
10-03-2007, 05:18 PM
If Dunn can't get the Reds a 3rd Starter then Hamilton sure as heck isn't.

Good point.

Degenerate39
10-03-2007, 05:20 PM
While I'm thinking of it Jay Bruce is Griffey's replacement not Hamilton's.

ChatterRed
10-03-2007, 05:28 PM
Wow. So we'll have a good outfield but nobody that can get anybody out in the pitching department.

Gee, sounds like this year.

ChatterRed
10-03-2007, 05:33 PM
While I'm thinking of it Jay Bruce is Griffey's replacement not Hamilton's.

Well, since Griffey is untradeable, meaning no other team wants him, you mean another year of waiting in terms of the Reds winning anything? That's the way I see it.

Nobody wants Dunn or Griffey. We have 4 LH power hitting outfielders if yo include Bruce.

Who are the most desirable players on the Reds that would bring something in return? Probably Phillips and Hamilton.

Degenerate39
10-03-2007, 05:38 PM
Well, since Griffey is untradeable, meaning no other team wants him, you mean another year of waiting in terms of the Reds winning anything? That's the way I see it.

Nobody wants Dunn or Griffey. We have 4 LH power hitting outfielders if yo include Bruce.

Who are the most desirable players on the Reds that would bring something in return? Probably Phillips and Hamilton.

Who ever said he was untradeable? I'm sure Seattle would give something pretty good for him. And Bruce is not going to be the missing piece that suddenly makes the Reds win.

redsfanmia
10-03-2007, 06:00 PM
Other than JB, Harang and Phillips he probably has the most value so if the right deal comes up you have to deal him. I still wonder about his ability to take the day in and day out grind of the season.

ChatterRed
10-03-2007, 06:02 PM
No Bruce isn't. But the pitching acquired for Hamilton, our most tradeable option, will help us win. But I guess you can't see this.

When making trades, you look at your most tradeable option, look to see if you have someone of quality to replace him, and seek what your missing (pitching).

DannyB
10-03-2007, 06:03 PM
No matter how bad a team needs a good outfielder they won't give up a #2.

Degenerate39
10-03-2007, 06:06 PM
No matter how bad a team needs a good outfielder they won't give up a #2.

Exactly you'd probably be pretty lucky if you'd get a #3.

GoReds33
10-03-2007, 06:59 PM
Exactly you'd probably be pretty lucky if you'd get a #3.Nah, I know you could get a solid three. I wouldn't take one though. This team needs bullpen help. The starters will come. Maybe Carlos Silva. Maybe we will fill the vacancies from within. I think that Bailey and Cueto already guaranteed themselves, barring an injury, starting rotation spots next year. That leaves one spot. Maloney may end up with that. That's why I would only take a one or two starter, or a terrific bullpen pitcher.:)

Doro
10-03-2007, 08:14 PM
Your not going to get a whole lot for Hamilton. Hes played one good major league season and was injured through most part of that.


and name 1 team that wants to trade their #3

FlightRick
10-03-2007, 08:22 PM
If Dunn can't get the Reds a 3rd Starter then Hamilton sure as heck isn't.

I may concede that it's getting tougher and tougher to pry away front end pitchers using OF as trade bait, but I'm not sure I agree with this "If, then" statement.

Dunn, right now, gives a potential new team only one year of guaranteed service, at a price tag of $13 million. To retain him for the four years after that will cost (roughly) another $60 million.

Hamilton, right now, gives a potential new team five (5) years of guaranteed service, with the first two coming at the league minimum pay-out (let's round up and say $1 million total for those two years) before entering three years of arbitration (let's be generous and say that a productive Hamilton, if a team doesn't buy out his arb years in favor of a long term deal, will get about $15 million over those three years).

So you can take Dunn, almost certain to post .260 / 40 HR / 100 RBI / .900 OPS numbers, given his past, at a cost of $73 million over 5 years (with only the first year guaranteed to come as a member of your team). Or you can take Hamilton, who has shown .280 / 30 HR / 80 RBI / .850 OPS promise in his one season of major league ball, at a total cost of $16 million over five years (all five of those years guaranteed to be for your team).

It's different strokes for different folks, all because of the wildly different financial models that exist throughout MLB... but methinks that Hamilton is, at least to a few teams, a significantly MORE attractive piece of trade bait than Dunn. Of course, those are likely the same teams that will value their talented, young, cheap pitching a lot more than a team with the money to go after Dunn, too, so perhaps it all evens out?



Rick

The Cowboy
10-03-2007, 08:55 PM
n

The Cowboy
10-03-2007, 08:59 PM
No way you trade the stud that is Josh Hamilton unless you get an awesome 2nd starter and a stud right hand hitting prospect.. Hammy is already unreal so think if he plays 50 games more and gets extra seasoning!? You cant trade Roy Hobbs....



sorry about the other post.. i dont know what happened

foxfire123
10-03-2007, 09:21 PM
CAN Josh be traded? I thought he was rule 5 and had to stay with the club?

Personally? I say keep him.

Degenerate39
10-03-2007, 09:23 PM
CAN Josh be traded? I thought he was rule 5 and had to stay with the club?

Personally? I say keep him.

You just have to keep him on the roster for a year then you can do what you want with him.

foxfire123
10-03-2007, 09:50 PM
Thanks! Thought it was 3 years.... :)

HokieRed
10-03-2007, 11:04 PM
A problem I see. You want to trade a position player for a #2 or 3 starter because, in your view, a #2 or 3 starter is more valuable than nearly any position player. You must think this because you're going to give up a very promising young player who will be cheap for several years. But any team that trades you their #2 or 3 starter for Hamilton will now have what we have--Hamilton and a big hole in the rotation. Why would some other team want the problem we now have?

redrum
10-03-2007, 11:49 PM
Your not going to get a whole lot for Hamilton. Hes played one good major league season and was injured through most part of that.


My take exactly.

Not to mention that the second the Reds seem willing to trade Hamilton his value drops. It will take 2-3 of injury and drug free years before his value tradewise comes anywhere near his potential.

Marge'sMullet
10-04-2007, 01:01 AM
This team can't win with the bullpen they have. Fix that and you win 15 + more games. You can fix a bullpen a lot easier and cheaper than acquiring a true ""#3"".

Either way I wouldn't trade Hamilton, he's is too good and he's too cheap for too long to trade him at this time.

AmarilloRed
10-04-2007, 02:02 AM
Dunn and Griffey are not guaranteed past 2008. Hamilton is our only outfielder who is guaranteed past 2008. We have a big starting outfielder gap once you get past Griffey and Dunn. If we had the outfield depth to trade Hamilton, we might do it. But we don't.

ChatterRed
10-04-2007, 07:52 AM
A problem I see. You want to trade a position player for a #2 or 3 starter because, in your view, a #2 or 3 starter is more valuable than nearly any position player. You must think this because you're going to give up a very promising young player who will be cheap for several years. But any team that trades you their #2 or 3 starter for Hamilton will now have what we have--Hamilton and a big hole in the rotation. Why would some other team want the problem we now have?

Because they're a small market club trying to keep their payroll down and decide they can't afford their #2 or #3 and need to unload them for equal CHEAP SALARIED return. Hamilton fits that mold perfectly. He is GOOD RETURN at a BASE PRICE.

I agree it will take the right circumstances, but I think it can be done.

And trading a position player does not leave us with a huge hole. Bruce is ready by all accounts of those who have seen him play.

HokieRed
10-04-2007, 10:14 AM
I didn't say anything about our having a hole in the outfield after you trade Hamilton. Whoever trades us a #2 or 3 starter will have a hole in their rotation similar to the one we have now in our rotation. What too few people are willing to admit is that there is a very small number of pitchers out there who will really fill the bill for what we want. There's almost no team that can afford to give up the kind of starter we need and still remain competitive.

durl
10-04-2007, 11:42 AM
The Reds should keep Hamilton. Sure, injuries might be a problem but I wonder how much of that is due to not playing for several years. I would expect his conditioning to be a little below someone who's played consistently over the past few years.

If I recall correctly, Hamilton is locked up with the Reds for 5 years. His contract is extremely inexpensive for what he can provide. A team like the Reds HAS to keep a guy like Hamilton. He's going to be a 35-40 HR/100+ RBI guy that will cost FAR below an experienced player putting up the same numbers.

Hey Meat
10-04-2007, 12:00 PM
I would trade Dunn before I would trade Hamilton. However, the question has arisen whether Hamilton can stay healthy for a full season.

sig
10-04-2007, 09:31 PM
Why wouldn't a team trade for Dunn? The Braves traded for Texeira and will be a FA after 2008.

GoReds33
10-04-2007, 09:43 PM
Dunn and Griffey are not guaranteed past 2008. Hamilton is our only outfielder who is guaranteed past 2008. We have a big starting outfielder gap once you get past Griffey and Dunn. If we had the outfield depth to trade Hamilton, we might do it. But we don't.Outfield depth should never be the Reds problem. They have Griffey, Dunn, Hamilton, Hopper, Gil, Ellison, Dickerson, Bruce, Freel, not to mention Stubbs who will be here in a couple years. I think this team is pretty set on outfielders. If they somehow do find themselves low on outfield depth they could play Votto out there, and keep Cantu at first.:)

AmarilloRed
10-05-2007, 01:45 AM
Outfield depth should never be the Reds problem. They have Griffey, Dunn, Hamilton, Hopper, Gil, Ellison, Dickerson, Bruce, Freel, not to mention Stubbs who will be here in a couple years. I think this team is pretty set on outfielders. If they somehow do find themselves low on outfield depth they could play Votto out there, and keep Cantu at first.:)

The problem is that all of those outfielders are reserves; they are not starting outfielders. I should have made it clear that I meant we are thin in starting outfielders. Hopper and Freel are platoon players at best, and Stubbs and Dickerson have yet to prove anything. Griffey and Dunn are not guaranteed past 2008 and until we see more starting outfielders appear on the horizon, I would be very cautious about trading any of our outfielders.

ChatterRed
10-05-2007, 08:48 AM
How do you know Hopper is only a platoon player?

AmarilloRed
10-05-2007, 02:21 PM
He has the potential to be a starting outfielder for a few years; however his lack of power and low OBP have always limited him to platoon status at best. Keppinger and Hopper should both be watched next year, and see if they can duplicate their remarkable success they had this year. Hopper had a good OBP this year, but that was largely dependent on his high BA and a lot of bunt hits. We had a fairly good discussion on the Hopper thread on whether or not he should be a starting outfielder, but with our 3 outfielders and Jay Bruce coming up, he will most likely have to be satisfied with platoon status unless he shows he can consistantly hit .330.

jmac
10-05-2007, 03:26 PM
The Reds should keep Hamilton. Sure, injuries might be a problem but I wonder how much of that is due to not playing for several years. I would expect his conditioning to be a little below someone who's played consistently over the past few years.

If I recall correctly, Hamilton is locked up with the Reds for 5 years. His contract is extremely inexpensive for what he can provide. A team like the Reds HAS to keep a guy like Hamilton. He's going to be a 35-40 HR/100+ RBI guy that will cost FAR below an experienced player putting up the same numbers.
Hamilton had injury problems in his early years in Tampa. Not one major but several little things that kept him out of lineup or on DL quite often.

INRedsFan
10-05-2007, 11:42 PM
IMO, you don't trade Hamilton. He is a person that you build your organization around in the future. I don't buy the injury prone arguement. Yes, he had a tough year from that perspective this year. His minor league injuries were mostly from his car wreck with his mother. He gives you long term insurance.

You have to remember, he was cutting trees with his brother when he got the call that he was picked up in the Rule 5 draft. He didn't have the time and experience to get prepared for a long season. I believe that he will work hard in the off season and come back prepared for next season.

With his pitching background, maybe we work him there in the offseason. I say that tongue in cheek because you give up too many tools with him as a pitcher but it is fun to think about.

I would be extremely disappointed if the Reds traded Josh. He was one bright spot in a very long year.