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Matt700wlw
10-04-2007, 04:31 PM
Free agents, arbitration

From Rob Butcher:

Arbitration eligible
Phillips
Belisle
Cantu
Saarloos
Ellison

Free agents
Milton
Guardado (option)
Hatteberg (option)
Dunn (option)
Valentin (option)
Bellhorn


ARBIRTRATION
Phillips - duh...
Belisle - shouldn't command much, I guess I'd keep him around, but wouldn't be heartbroken if they didn't
Cantu - keep him. I like his stick; servicable on the field.
Saarloos - no thanks...go far far away
Ellison - no thanks...go far far away


FREE AGENTS
Milton - FINALLY!!! Off the books!!!
Guardado's option - I wouldn't touch it...not $3 Million
Hatteberg's option - I'll take my chances with Votto and Cantu - thanks for everything Hatte!
Dunn's option - they'd be pretty stupid not to pick it up
Valentin's option - I guess so....he can at least hit..I'll be fair, he became a better catcher with some consistant PT - how much is it?
Bellhorn - nice knowing you...actually, it really wasn't.

redsmetz
10-04-2007, 04:54 PM
Valentin's option is $1.3 Million ($75,000 buyout).

I think we ought to pick up Hatte's option - very affordable and then consider moving him. We might as well get something for having the rights. I can't say for sure this will pay off, but I think it's a low risk gamble ($1.85 Million option, $150,000 buy out).

pedro
10-04-2007, 04:57 PM
The Reds would have to be absolute morons to not offer Belisle Arb.

Benihana
10-04-2007, 04:58 PM
Valentin's option is $1.3 Million ($75,000 buyout).

I think we ought to pick up Hatte's option - very affordable and then consider moving him. We might as well get something for having the rights. I can't say for sure this will pay off, but I think it's a low risk gamble ($1.85 Million option, $150,000 buy out).

agreed. Move the Hatte for whatever we can get for him, but don't let him go for free. Worse case scenario, we got a high OBP guy and good veteran clubhouse presence coming off the bench.

Matt700wlw
10-04-2007, 05:05 PM
Valentin's option is $1.3 Million ($75,000 buyout).

I think we ought to pick up Hatte's option - very affordable and then consider moving him. We might as well get something for having the rights. I can't say for sure this will pay off, but I think it's a low risk gamble ($1.85 Million option, $150,000 buy out).


Didn't think of that, not a bad option....but I think they would ask Hatteberg that if he were to be a bench guy, would he want to stay?

He deserves that respect. He may rather retire or try to find a starting or platoon role with another team, than stay here and sit on the bench.

RedsManRick
10-04-2007, 05:10 PM
Hatteberg is basically $1.6 more to keep him. Trade him and he costs nothing. Trade him midseason and you only pay the pro-rated salary. While the bench will be tight, I think it would be smart to maximize the return on an asset.

Strikes Out Looking
10-04-2007, 05:13 PM
I look for Saarloos and Ellison to be non-tendered.

And don't be surprised if Eddie Guardado's option is picked up.

redsmetz
10-04-2007, 05:19 PM
Didn't think of that, not a bad option....but I think they would ask Hatteberg that if he were to be a bench guy, would he want to stay?

He deserves that respect. He may rather retire or try to find a starting or platoon role with another team, than stay here and sit on the bench.

I think there was a report near season's end where he told one reporter that he'd prefer they not pick up the option if he's going to be a back-up (which I think he presumes he would be). He made clear though that he understands that he signed the contract he did and was willing to accept that should it come to that.

RedsManRick
10-04-2007, 05:35 PM
I think there was a report near season's end where he told one reporter that he'd prefer they not pick up the option if he's going to be a back-up (which I think he presumes he would be). He made clear though that he understands that he signed the contract he did and was willing to accept that should it come to that.

Saw that too. I wonder if there's anybody out there who wants him cheap and would flip us a C level prospect for him.

- Boston if they let Lowell walk. Though I imagine they'd set their sights higher.
- Giants. Maybe he can platoon with Aurilia again.
- Mets. No way they exercise Delgado's option.
- Rangers. Have Salty and Laird and have stated they aren't looking for mediocre options.
- Tigers. Looking for a replacement for Casey.
- Yankees. Nobody wants Giambi playing everyday, but he hits better there and they have 4 OF for 3 spots as it is.

PuffyPig
10-04-2007, 05:42 PM
Belisle is a no brainer, he's out third baest starter. A DIPS ERA around 4.50 is pretty good for the money. Should improve.

Hatteberg is a no brainer also, even if its just to trade him.

Cantu..depends on what he might get, buy probably.

JaxRed
10-04-2007, 05:56 PM
I think Cantu is a no-brainer also. He'll be pretty cheap considering he spent most of year in minors. He'll also settle before going to hearing.

Matt700wlw
10-04-2007, 05:59 PM
Belisle is a no brainer, he's out third baest starter.

That's the problem, and will be one next year if he still is by default...becuase that would mean the Reds didn't do squat to bolster their rotation.

Stick him back in the bullpen....he may have more consistantcy there.

reds44
10-04-2007, 06:01 PM
If the Reds don't offer Belisle arbitration, then something is wrong.

He's the biggest no brainer on that list next to Phillips and Dunn.

Mario-Rijo
10-04-2007, 06:07 PM
Saw that too. I wonder if there's anybody out there who wants him cheap and would flip us a C level prospect for him.

- Boston if they let Lowell walk. Though I imagine they'd set their sights higher.
- Giants. Maybe he can platoon with Aurilia again.
- Mets. No way they exercise Delgado's option.
- Ragners. Have Salty and Laird and have stated they aren't looking for mediocre options.
- Tigers. Looking for a replacement for Casey.
- Yankees. Nobody wants Giambi playing everyday, but he hits better there and they have 4 OF for 3 spots as it is.

Actually the way I read it, sounded to me like Hatte was a good short term solution for Texas. 1.85 Million seems to be right up there alley here until Mayberry and/or Chris Davis may be ready. 1.85 isn't bad for a starting 1B who actually has some value as a consistent performer.


The philosophy makes it more likely the Rangers will pursue a center fielder on a long-term deal and that right field and first base, two other holes identified by manager Ron Washington and Daniels, would either be filled from within or on inexpensive short-term deals.

But the Rangers don't necessarily feel the need to get a long-term answer at either spot, with John Mayberry Jr. and Chris Davis (who could move back from third to first) excelling in the minor leagues. David Murphy, perhaps a Rusty Greer starter kit, might present the best cost-effective option. Nelson Cruz, who failed two auditions this season but who has fewer than 500 career at-bats, could also get a longer look.

Cyclone792
10-04-2007, 06:09 PM
Dunn (option), Phillips (arbitration), Belisle (arbitration), Hatteberg (option), Cantu (arbitration), and Valentin (arbitration) are the guys I'd bring back.

Dunn and Phillips are obvious, and I'd actually look to extend Dunn long term beyond the 2008 option (or scrap the 2008 option and sign him long term anyway).

Belisle pitched quite a bit better than the traditional pitching metrics indicate, and that should help keep his salary very much in the bargain range. The Reds should get him fairly cheap next season, and he's a guy I'm looking at possibly putting up numbers similar to an average MLB starter.

Cantu should be cheap, and even though I loathe his offensive game (lack of walks), the team could really use a right-handed bat off the bench who can start a handful of games at first base.

I'm not a big fan of Valentin by any means, but there's a dearth of catchers out there and the only in-house option is well ... David Ross. Perhaps a guy like Hanigan can step up, but I probably wouldn't look to dump Valentin and depend on Hanigan or somebody else popping up. Plus, even though the Reds called up Hanigan, they rarely used him, which to me is an indicator that they don't consider him much more than a third string catcher or possibly a backup at best.

Hatteberg's the interesting one to me simply based off what he's supposedly stated about hoping to get a shot starting somewhere. If I'm the Reds, I'm trying to contact Hatteberg and his agent in an effort to persuade him to stay around beyond his playing years. What I'd like the Reds to do is pick up Hatteberg's 2008 option, start him sparingly/insurance policy for Votto, and let him become one of the NL's premier pinch hitters. If Hatteberg and Cantu are both on the bench, then the bench strength would be significantly improved.

Furthermore, I'd like to know what kind of longterm plans Hatteberg has. He's a guy I'd like to see kept in the organization in some capacity beyond his playing days. The best case scenario would be to transition him from starter (2006-07) to bench player (2008-??) to some front office/coaching position after retiring. Of course, the key would be to get him off the active roster and into a coaching spot/front office spot before he turns into a Juan Castro, but I doubt it'd get to that.

Saarloos, Ellison, Milton, Guardado, Bellhorn ... don't let the door hit you on the way out.

StillFunkyB
10-04-2007, 06:16 PM
I like take "scrap the option, and sign Dunn long term" for 1000 Alex.

:)

KronoRed
10-04-2007, 07:03 PM
And don't be surprised if Eddie Guardado's option is picked up.

Yep, I see them finally giving up on Staton and eating the contract and Eddie being the new old lefty in the pen.

KronoRed
10-04-2007, 07:03 PM
Stick him back in the bullpen....he may have more consistantcy there.

As a 4 or 5 he'd be just fine, better then the other options.

Matt700wlw
10-04-2007, 07:20 PM
As a 4 or 5 he'd be just fine, better then the other options.

That's the problem....the OTHER OPTIONS.

That should indicate it's time to try to change those options this offseason.


Matt Belisle is not the 3rd starter on a team who is trying to win...like he ended up being on this one.

BuckeyeRedleg
10-04-2007, 07:27 PM
So, next year at this time (with the current roster), are EE and Majewski the only two that will be added to Phillips, Belisle, Coffey, and Cantu that are arb eligible (assuming they cut ties with Ellison and Saarloos)?

Phillips - arb eligible '08, '09, '10 (free agent in 2011)
Belisle - arb eligible '08, '09, '10 (free agent in 2011)
Cantu - arb eligible '08, '09, '10 (free agent in 2011)
Coffey - arb eligible '08, '09, '10 (free agent in 2011)

Encarnacion - arb eligible '09, '10, '11 (free agent in 2012)
Majewski - arb eligible '09, '10, '11 (free agent in 2012)

Do I have that right?

Two questions.

1. What would a Cantu expect to receive in arbitration?
2. Is there any scenario that would make sense for Saarloos and Ellison to be offered?

Matt700wlw
10-04-2007, 07:31 PM
2. Is there any scenario that would make sense for Saarloos and Ellison to be offered?

I can't think of one.

KronoRed
10-04-2007, 07:41 PM
That's the problem....the OTHER OPTIONS.

That should indicate it's time to try to change those options this offseason.


Matt Belisle is not the 3rd starter on a team who is trying to win...like he ended up being on this one.

But a team that's trying to win can keep him as a 4th or 5th.

PuffyPig
10-04-2007, 07:47 PM
That's the problem....the OTHER OPTIONS.

That should indicate it's time to try to change those options this offseason.


Matt Belisle is not the 3rd starter on a team who is trying to win...like he ended up being on this one.


This was Belisle's first season as a full time starter. His k-rate and walk-rate were fine, he just tended to have a big inning. He should improve with the experience. His DIPS was more in the 4.50 range which is good.

I can't imagine any reasonable scenario where we will have 5 starters better than him. Whether or not you consider him a #3, #4 or #5 starter, or even a releif pitcher, you have to offer him arbitration.

The fact that you don't envision him as a number 3 is fine, but you still gotta offer him arbitration.

RedLegSuperStar
10-04-2007, 09:14 PM
I'm pretty sure Gary Majewski is part of those who are Arbitration Eligible..

Eric_Davis
10-04-2007, 09:45 PM
You wouldn't want to take Dunn's $13M and sign one of these players (and get a 1st Round and Supplemental pick after the 1st Round in the 2008 draft)?

2008 Free Agent Pitchers:

Players with 2008 options are noted with an asterisk.

Starting Pitchers
Kris Benson * BAL
Paul Byrd * CLE
Shawn Chacon PIT
Matt Clement BOS
Bartolo Colon LAA
Scott Elarton CLE
Josh Fogg COL
Casey Fossum * TB
Freddy Garcia PHI
Livan Hernandez ARZ
Jason Jennings HOU
Brian Lawrence * NYM
Jon Lieber PHI
Kyle Lohse PHI
Rodrigo Lopez COL
Greg Maddux * SD
Wade Miller CHC
Eric Milton CIN
Odalis Perez * KC
Joel Pineiro * STL
Kenny Rogers DET
Curt Schilling BOS
Carlos Silva MIN
Julian Tavarez * BOS
Brett Tomko * LAD
David Wells LAD
Kip Wells STL
Randy Wolf * LAD
Jaret Wright BAL (released 10/01/07)
Victor Zambrano BAL (released 10/01/07)

Relief Pitchers
Jeremy Affeldt COL
Armando Benitez FLA
Hector Carrasco * LAA
Francisco Cordero MIL
Rheal Cormier CIN
Elmer Dessens COL
Scott Eyre * CHC
Roberto Hernandez * LAD
Jason Isringhausen* STL
Todd Jones DET
Jorge Julio COL
Joe Kennedy TOR
Byung-Hyun Kim FLA
Scott Linebrink MIL
Ron Mahay ATL
Trever Miller HOU
Mike Myers * CWS
Joe Nathan * MIN
Chris Reitsma SEA
Mariano Rivera NYY
Rudy Seanez SD
Mike Timlin BOS
Mike Venafro STL
Luis Vizcaino NYY
Bob Wickman ARI
Scott Williamson BAL
Jay Witasick TB
Kerry Wood CHC

pedro
10-04-2007, 10:21 PM
You wouldn't want to take Dunn's $13M and sign one of these players (and get a 1st Round and Supplemental pick after the 1st Round in the 2008 draft)?



Why shouldn't they keep Dunn and sign some pitchers? They've got the money.

Cyclone792
10-04-2007, 10:54 PM
Why shouldn't they keep Dunn and sign some pitchers? They've got the money.

It's the > $x million dollar rule.

The Reds are apparently supposed to compete with no single player making more than a specific dollar amount. No matter how productive the Reds' high-salaried player(s) is, any single player making more than some specific dollar amount simply needs to be shipped out for mediocre to bad players in some fans' eyes. I haven't quite figured out where that salary line is, but it's there and it's several million less than what Dunn will make next season.

Just wait two or three years when Brandon Phillips is making good money. Half the people who currently claim that Phillips is the best player on the team will be trying to run him out of town too for mediocre to bad players, because in two or three years Phillips will supposedly be making too much money to continue playing in a Reds uniform.

Aaron Harang will be a key guy to watch out for too. Everyone loves Harang right now, because his salary this season and next won't be too high. But come 2009 when Harang is making $11 million, there will be some people clamoring to get rid of him ... because he'll be making too much money, or so they'll say.

Eric_Davis
10-05-2007, 12:55 AM
It's the > $x million dollar rule.

The Reds are apparently supposed to compete with no single player making more than a specific dollar amount. No matter how productive the Reds' high-salaried player(s) is, any single player making more than some specific dollar amount simply needs to be shipped out for mediocre to bad players in some fans' eyes. I haven't quite figured out where that salary line is, but it's there and it's several million less than what Dunn will make next season.

Just wait two or three years when Brandon Phillips is making good money. Half the people who currently claim that Phillips is the best player on the team will be trying to run him out of town too for mediocre to bad players, because in two or three years Phillips will supposedly be making too much money to continue playing in a Reds uniform.



Back in May, I said three more years and then trade him (Phillips). I still feel that way, even as much as I've been praising Phillips all year long.

I don't feel any offensive player is good enough to justify spending more than 10-12% of the team's total payroll. I would go up to 15% on one pitcher, though.

WVRedsFan
10-05-2007, 01:19 AM
Free agents, arbitration

From Rob Butcher:

Arbitration eligible
Phillips
Belisle
Cantu
Saarloos
Ellison

Free agents
Milton
Guardado (option)
Hatteberg (option)
Dunn (option)
Valentin (option)
Bellhorn


ARBITRATION:

dfa Saarloos and Ellison (in fact if they don't they're insane) and go to arb with the rest.

FA

Obviously let Milton go. Pick up options on Guardado and Dunn. If you can find another catcher, cut Valentin loose and don't offer the others. It's time to move on.

WVRedsFan
10-05-2007, 01:21 AM
I'm pretty sure Gary Majewski is part of those who are Arbitration Eligible..

Majewski?

Out Damned Spot!

Strikes Out Looking
10-05-2007, 09:07 AM
This was Belisle's first season as a full time starter. His k-rate and walk-rate were fine, he just tended to have a big inning. He should improve with the experience. His DIPS was more in the 4.50 range which is good.

I can't imagine any reasonable scenario where we will have 5 starters better than him. Whether or not you consider him a #3, #4 or #5 starter, or even a releif pitcher, you have to offer him arbitration.

The fact that you don't envision him as a number 3 is fine, but you still gotta offer him arbitration.

Exactly, his first year as a starter was fine--it wasn't his fault that he became the number 3 by default. And he was coming off an injury plagued 2006. They need to pick up his option and let him begin the year in the rotation--probably number 4, hopefully 5.

I think his learning curve is great, I think he's pals with one Aaron Harang and he's low price for someone who can give 30 starts.

redsmetz
10-05-2007, 10:19 AM
Yep, I see them finally giving up on Stanton and eating the contract and Eddie being the new old lefty in the pen.

It occurred to me yesterday that I don't think the Reds cut Stanton loose this year. If he continues to be uneven in his performance, I don't think we want another club deciding his useage and leaving the Reds on the hook for his 2009 option moving to guaranteed after 170 innings over this year and next. We either control him all year or trade him so someone else is faced with being responsible for the 2009 contract.

IslandRed
10-05-2007, 12:07 PM
It occurred to me yesterday that I don't think the Reds cut Stanton loose this year. If he continues to be uneven in his performance, I don't think we want another club deciding his useage and leaving the Reds on the hook for his 2009 option moving to guaranteed after 170 innings over this year and next. We either control him all year or trade him so someone else is faced with being responsible for the 2009 contract.

To get to 170 innings for 2007 and 2008, he'd have to throw 113 innings next year. He's never thrown more than 80 innings in a season. I don't think that will be a factor if it comes to a DFA. Of course, a trade would be preferable, even if we have to toss in money, but it's more for the sake of getting something back as opposed to fear of vesting his 2009 option.

Matt700wlw
10-05-2007, 06:41 PM
This was Belisle's first season as a full time starter. His k-rate and walk-rate were fine, he just tended to have a big inning. He should improve with the experience. His DIPS was more in the 4.50 range which is good.

I can't imagine any reasonable scenario where we will have 5 starters better than him. Whether or not you consider him a #3, #4 or #5 starter, or even a releif pitcher, you have to offer him arbitration.

The fact that you don't envision him as a number 3 is fine, but you still gotta offer him arbitration.


If he's the number 3 starter again, by default....then it will be another long season....if there's better competition in there, and he earns it...then hey, I'm always fine with somebody earning it.


I'd rather still go into camp with the team planning on him being used out of the bullpen (even if they don't make that known publically) and go from there.

That would mean they made some moves this offseason and didn't stand pat...

RedsManRick
10-05-2007, 06:45 PM
If he's the number 3 starter again, by default....then it will be another long season....if there's better competition in there, and he earns it...then hey, I'm always fine with somebody earning it.


I'd rather still go into camp with the team planning on him being used out of the bullpen (even if they don't make that known) and go from there.

While going in to the season with Belisle as my #3 doesn't exactly inspire confidence, neither would going in to the season with Carlos Silva as my #3.

pedro
10-05-2007, 06:49 PM
Dropping a pitcher from the roster b/c you don't think he should be the #3 starter is a sure way to get worse IMO.

KronoRed
10-06-2007, 01:34 AM
Exactly, maybe he's not a 3, but why throw him in the pen? we need 5 starters, he'll make a fine 4 or 5.