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reds44
10-05-2007, 04:17 PM
Cincinnati

CF Josh Hamilton/Ryan Freel
3B Edwin Encarnacion
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
2B Brandon Phillips
LF Adam Dunn
SS Alex Gonzalez
1B Joey Votto/Jorge Cantu
C David Ross/Javier Valentin

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Carlos Silva
Justin Germano
Homer Bailey

David Weathers
Jared Burton
Bill Bray

As usual, the Reds need pitching, preferably two starters and a closer candidate. Unfortunately, there just isn't a lot available in free agency this winter and Cincinnati doesn't have a deep minor league system to deal from. While it's true the Reds have four of the game's top prospects in Jay Bruce, Homey Bailey, Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto, they have to keep those players and they don't have a lot of second-tier guys to use to entice other teams.

So, the Reds could look to free agency first. They need to be in on both Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami, but they're more likely to end up with Carlos Silva. While he'd be overpriced at $8 million per year, he has youth, durability and his ability to get a somewhat above average number grounders on his side. They could also trade for a veteran. Daniel Cabrera would be worth gambling on, or they could go after a veteran like Esteban Loaiza or Julian Tavarez. I have them trading Jeff Keppinger for Justin Germano, adding one more rotation option.

The bullpen isn't quite so desperate of a need with Jared Burton establishing himself as a reliable setup man. David Weathers is less than ideal as a closer, but it'd be very expensive to replace him. The Reds figure to talk to Francisco Cordero, but they'll probably settle for a couple of lesser guys.

The offense should be pretty well set if Adam Dunn's option is picked up. Ryan Freel is expendable, as the Reds can go with a Josh Hamilton/Norris Hopper platoon in center. However, his value is at rock bottom because of injuries. The Reds might as well keep him as protection for Hamilton and Ken Griffey Jr. Scott Hatteberg's option can be picked up, but he needs to be a bench player behind Votto. Jorge Cantu can start at first base against left-handers and serve as a backup elsewhere. The catching situation probably won't be upgraded since both David Ross and Javier Valentin are under contract for next year.

If the Reds foolishly decline Dunn's option, they could go with Votto in left field and Hatteberg at first. They'd have a lot more money to throw at pitchers and they could become the favorites to land Cordero. However, they wouldn't be any better for it. My guess is that they'll exercise the option and then deal Dunn after he loses his no-trade protection on June 15. Either way, third place would seem to be the best-case scenario.


http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=2&articleid=29153

Highlifeman21
10-05-2007, 04:21 PM
$8 Million a year for Carlos Silva?

I guess if we gave $9 Million a year to Eric Milton, we've unfortunately set a precedent....



Keppinger for Germano? I'm failing to see the logic in that move. For whatever reason, I see the Reds moving Alex Gonzalez in the offseason, and handing the SS job to Keppinger. I also don't see Germano returning to Cincinnati as a different pitcher. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Chip R
10-05-2007, 04:25 PM
I wouldn't be surprised.

They could add Tavarez for the pleasure of the female fans. ;)http://images.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/_photos/2005-10-03-inside-tavarez.jpg

Matt700wlw
10-05-2007, 04:25 PM
I wouldn't be surprised.

They could add Tavarez for the pleasure of the female fans. ;)http://images.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/_photos/2005-10-03-inside-tavarez.jpg

And for entertainment value for when he has one of his blowups

reds44
10-05-2007, 06:19 PM
I wouldn't be surprised.

They could add Tavarez for the pleasure of the female fans. ;)http://images.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/_photos/2005-10-03-inside-tavarez.jpg
Better then Ezequiel Astacio.

http://media.scout.com/Media/Image/20/208853.jpg

Highlifeman21
10-05-2007, 06:21 PM
Better then Ezequiel Astacio.

http://media.scout.com/Media/Image/20/208853.jpg

That guy is the definition of the missing link.

RedLegSuperStar
10-05-2007, 07:17 PM
Better then Ezequiel Astacio.

http://media.scout.com/Media/Image/20/208853.jpg

Gulp.. Yikes..

RedLegSuperStar
10-05-2007, 07:27 PM
$8 Million a year for Carlos Silva?

I guess if we gave $9 Million a year to Eric Milton, we've unfortunately set a precedent....



Keppinger for Germano? I'm failing to see the logic in that move. For whatever reason, I see the Reds moving Alex Gonzalez in the offseason, and handing the SS job to Keppinger. I also don't see Germano returning to Cincinnati as a different pitcher. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I'd probably go with Silva at 8 million.. heck Meche got 11 million a year and Silva IMO is better then Meche on top of that he is a year younger.

I can't see the Reds dealing for Germano after a season plus that he was dealt. And I think Kepp is good for this team.. I hate to say it but I agree with you high and try to deal Gonzalez.. unfortunately I think A-Gon's mind was else where this season and caused him to have so many errors.

OnBaseMachine
10-05-2007, 10:36 PM
Hell no to Carlos Silva. Save that money and sign Francisco Cordero instead. Hell, I wouldn't mind seeing them sign Matt Clement to a one-year deal and see if he has anything left. Also, I like the idea of trading for Daniel Cabrera if he could be had cheaply. I believe it was M2 who said the other day that Cabrera could make for a great reliever, and I agree with that. I would love to see the Reds take a chance on him. Ervin Santana is another guy I would target.

Chip R
10-05-2007, 10:45 PM
Better then Ezequiel Astacio.

http://media.scout.com/Media/Image/20/208853.jpg


Wow! I stand corrected. There's actually someone out there uglier than Tavarez.

RedFanAlways1966
10-05-2007, 10:59 PM
Hell no to Carlos Silva.

The non-baseball reasons...

(1) June 13, 2003: The brawl, which occurred during the sixth inning of the Reds' 15-1 blowout, started shortly after Jason LaRue made it a 12-0 game with a two-run homer in the sixth. Carlos Silva began throwing inside on Adam Dunn to ignite the scrum. A warning was issued on a inside toss at Dunn's waist, but Silva threw behind the batter on the very next pitch. Dunn started slowly towards the mound at first, but then made a break for Silva. However, catcher Mike Lieberthal tackled Dunn by the ankles and the big outfielder fell to the ground. Silva took swings (cheap shots) at the fallen Dunn as both benches emptied and a brawl ensued.

(2) Traded to Minnesota from Philadelphia in part for Eric Milton. Helped start the ball rolling for Milton to end up in a Cincinnati uniform for 3 years and $27 million.

Hard to forgive (1). Not really his fault or doing on (2), but (1) makes it easier to find fault for the guy on (2). ;)

RedLegSuperStar
10-05-2007, 11:28 PM
The non-baseball reasons...

(1) June 13, 2003: The brawl, which occurred during the sixth inning of the Reds' 15-1 blowout, started shortly after Jason LaRue made it a 12-0 game with a two-run homer in the sixth. Carlos Silva began throwing inside on Adam Dunn to ignite the scrum. A warning was issued on a inside toss at Dunn's waist, but Silva threw behind the batter on the very next pitch. Dunn started slowly towards the mound at first, but then made a break for Silva. However, catcher Mike Lieberthal tackled Dunn by the ankles and the big outfielder fell to the ground. Silva took swings (cheap shots) at the fallen Dunn as both benches emptied and a brawl ensued.

(2) Traded to Minnesota from Philadelphia in part for Eric Milton. Helped start the ball rolling for Milton to end up in a Cincinnati uniform for 3 years and $27 million.

Hard to forgive (1). Not really his fault or doing on (2), but (1) makes it easier to find fault for the guy on (2). ;)

I thought that was Vicente Padilla.. I stand corrected.. I don't want him..

Cedric
10-06-2007, 01:32 AM
Hell no to Carlos Silva. Save that money and sign Francisco Cordero instead. Hell, I wouldn't mind seeing them sign Matt Clement to a one-year deal and see if he has anything left. Also, I like the idea of trading for Daniel Cabrera if he could be had cheaply. I believe it was M2 who said the other day that Cabrera could make for a great reliever, and I agree with that. I would love to see the Reds take a chance on him. Ervin Santana is another guy I would target.

Santana would be pricey and considering his amazingly bad road splits I would say no. Clement was always overrated. He's just officially toast now.

Cedric
10-06-2007, 01:34 AM
The non-baseball reasons...

(1) June 13, 2003: The brawl, which occurred during the sixth inning of the Reds' 15-1 blowout, started shortly after Jason LaRue made it a 12-0 game with a two-run homer in the sixth. Carlos Silva began throwing inside on Adam Dunn to ignite the scrum. A warning was issued on a inside toss at Dunn's waist, but Silva threw behind the batter on the very next pitch. Dunn started slowly towards the mound at first, but then made a break for Silva. However, catcher Mike Lieberthal tackled Dunn by the ankles and the big outfielder fell to the ground. Silva took swings (cheap shots) at the fallen Dunn as both benches emptied and a brawl ensued.

(2) Traded to Minnesota from Philadelphia in part for Eric Milton. Helped start the ball rolling for Milton to end up in a Cincinnati uniform for 3 years and $27 million.

Hard to forgive (1). Not really his fault or doing on (2), but (1) makes it easier to find fault for the guy on (2). ;)

Little more to the story though. Dunn had ran over Lieberthal earlier in the game when it was a blowout. Nobody on the Phillies liked that much. They must have forgotten how bad our pitching staff was.

fearofpopvol1
10-06-2007, 02:41 AM
What about taking a risk on Kerry Wood? He's due to be a free agent.

Obviously, he could be a mess (both injury wise and his productivity)...but if you could sign him cheaply and try him out as a starter and if doesn't work out, move him to the pen, why not? Maybe a change of scenery would do him good. He has the stuff to be effective. It would be one of those low risk potential high reward signings (assuming he could be signed cheaply).

Aronchis
10-06-2007, 03:56 AM
I suspect the Reds rotation will be Harang,Arroyo,Belisle,Bailey and missing pitcher X. Most likely a lefty.

mth123
10-06-2007, 03:58 AM
Hell no to Carlos Silva. Save that money and sign Francisco Cordero instead. Hell, I wouldn't mind seeing them sign Matt Clement to a one-year deal and see if he has anything left. Also, I like the idea of trading for Daniel Cabrera if he could be had cheaply. I believe it was M2 who said the other day that Cabrera could make for a great reliever, and I agree with that. I would love to see the Reds take a chance on him. Ervin Santana is another guy I would target.

I've been hoping for Cabrera as well. The Orioles have been talking about moving Tejada to 3B and Mora to the OF. Maybe they would take Gonzalez to play SS and a middling prospect/suspect or two along the lines of Lecure, Guevara or even Majewski.

RedLegSuperStar
10-06-2007, 11:41 AM
What about taking a risk on Kerry Wood? He's due to be a free agent.

Obviously, he could be a mess (both injury wise and his productivity)...but if you could sign him cheaply and try him out as a starter and if doesn't work out, move him to the pen, why not? Maybe a change of scenery would do him good. He has the stuff to be effective. It would be one of those low risk potential high reward signings (assuming he could be signed cheaply).

If the Reds sign him.. I'd keep him in the pen. I don't think his arm is strong enough for what the Reds are looking for in a starter(190+ innings). It would be better suited for both Wood and the Reds.. because if he starts and gets hurt.. that just leaves us where we are now..

RedLegSuperStar
10-06-2007, 12:02 PM
I've been hoping for Cabrera as well. The Orioles have been talking about moving Tejada to 3B and Mora to the OF. Maybe they would take Gonzalez to play SS and a middling prospect/suspect or two along the lines of Lecure, Guevara or even Majewski.

I like Cabrera as well and he is still young and pitched 200+ innings this season. Cabrera would probably be our #3 starter but might serve as a better #4.

I also like the Gonzalez offer and would make sense for Baltimore if in fact Tajada moved to 3rd or was traded and Mora moved to the OF if they couldn't resign Paterson.

Gonzalez, Pelland, and Ramirez to the Orioles

Cabrera to the Reds

Cabrera would be a cheaper fill for a much needed void. And perhaps give the Reds the ability to bring in another starter as well as an above average reliever.

PuffyPig
10-06-2007, 12:12 PM
I like Cabrera as well and he is still young and pitched 200+ innings this season. Cabrera would probably be our #3 starter but might serve as a better #4.

.

I'm not sure I understand.

Why would it make a difference if he was our #3 or #4 starter?

Strikes Out Looking
10-06-2007, 12:13 PM
Does anyone know how reliable the Rotoworld projections actually are? It seems to me any one of us could have come up with something similar as a starting point. And I'm not sure how they come to their conclusions--for instance what do they have happening to Matt Belisle? And why would the Reds retrade for Justin Germano who struggled late in the season in a pitcher's park?

PuffyPig
10-06-2007, 12:21 PM
Does anyone know how reliable the Rotoworld projections actually are? It seems to me any one of us could have come up with something similar as a starting point. And I'm not sure how they come to their conclusions--for instance what do they have happening to Matt Belisle? And why would the Reds retrade for Justin Germano who struggled late in the season in a pitcher's park?

They aren't very reliable, and anyone of us could have said lots more just as stupid.

Germano woll not be a Red in 2008.

They basically guess to make good reading. Nothing is based on any real concrete evidence.

blumj
10-06-2007, 04:07 PM
And for entertainment value for when he has one of his blowups
You're totally missing the most entertaining part of the whole Julian Tavarez experience: he has some kind of mental block about throwing to 1st base, so, when he has to field a ball, he rolls it to 1st, like bowling. It's really hysterical, and it actually works more often than you'd think.

Spitball
10-06-2007, 05:07 PM
Cabrera would probably be our #3 starter but might serve as a better #4.

I have mixed feelings on Cabrera. I'm not sure I trust a pitcher in GABP who pitches so consistently behind in the count. He had difficulty in Camden Yards giving up 18 of his twenty-five homers there. He puts himself in the hole way too often, and constantly pitching 3-0 and 3-1 is a formula for failure in a hitters' park.

I believe he would become a major whipping boy around here.

RedLegSuperStar
10-06-2007, 05:23 PM
I'm not sure I understand.

Why would it make a difference if he was our #3 or #4 starter?

I just feel (IMO) that Cabrera would be better suited on this team matched up with the oppositions #4 starter. I think if we can sign a Free Agent for our #3 and use Bailey as our #5. Belisle moving to the 'pen. That Free Agent being either: Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, Bartolo Colon, or even Kenny Rogers.. all of which who have winning records, played in the playoffs, and all but one (Colon) has pitched and won a game in the World Series. I'm sure Colon and Garcia would be the cheaper of the bunch and Livan would probably be the most expensive.

It's not that I don't think Cabrera can get the job done as a #3 starter.. it's much like some were saying Arroyo is our best #3 starter.. it's just an opinion.

mth123
10-06-2007, 06:31 PM
I have mixed feelings on Cabrera. I'm not sure I trust a pitcher in GABP who pitches so consistently behind in the count. He had difficulty in Camden Yards giving up 18 of his twenty-five homers there. He puts himself in the hole way too often, and constantly pitching 3-0 and 3-1 is a formula for failure in a hitters' park.

I believe he would become a major whipping boy around here.

You could be right and that is why I wouldn't go nuts to acquire him. But he does throw hard and may have a future in the pen if he can't step forward in the rotation. He looks better than anything on the free agent market (though I'd take a flyer on Jon Leiber for a short and reasonable deal).

I kind of like getting pitchers from other hitters parks. At least we have a better idea how they would handle GABP and wouldn't be overpaying for park created mirages.

11BarryLarkin11
10-06-2007, 07:24 PM
I'd probably go with Silva at 8 million.. heck Meche got 11 million a year and Silva IMO is better then Meche on top of that he is a year younger.

I can't see the Reds dealing for Germano after a season plus that he was dealt. And I think Kepp is good for this team.. I hate to say it but I agree with you high and try to deal Gonzalez.. unfortunately I think A-Gon's mind was else where this season and caused him to have so many errors.

What makes Silva better than Meche???

Spitball
10-06-2007, 07:45 PM
You could be right and that is why I wouldn't go nuts to acquire him. But he does throw hard and may have a future in the pen if he can't step forward in the rotation. He looks better than anything on the free agent market (though I'd take a flyer on Jon Leiber for a short and reasonable deal).

I agree. He might have the most promise and at the lowest cost of anyone available.


I kind of like getting pitchers from other hitters parks. At least we have a better idea how they would handle GABP and wouldn't be overpaying for park created mirages.

He was pretty bad in his home park. He had a 6.42 ERA and gave up 18 homers. And that was with Leo Mazzone working with him. Of course, he was facing Boston, New York, and those tough AL line-ups.

RedLegSuperStar
10-07-2007, 12:39 AM
What makes Silva better than Meche???

Silva: 55W - 46L (.545 winning %) 4.31 ERA More Stats (http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/silvaca01.shtml)

Meche: 64W - 57L (.529 Winning %) 4.44 ERA More Stats (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mechegi01.shtml)

Aronchis
10-07-2007, 01:39 AM
I doubt the Reds would be interested in Silva, he is a righty. Now, how about soon to be overpaid lefties, something the Reds have a history of doing;)

Caveat Emperor
10-07-2007, 03:05 AM
And why would the Reds retrade for Justin Germano who struggled late in the season in a pitcher's park?

Good question -- makes me wonder if the dude even read anything about Germano other than his season numbers.

Like, for example, the fact that the Reds dumped him for the first warm body in the bullpen that got offered as a return...

11BarryLarkin11
10-07-2007, 02:14 PM
Silva: 55W - 46L (.545 winning %) 4.31 ERA More Stats (http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/silvaca01.shtml)

Meche: 64W - 57L (.529 Winning %) 4.44 ERA More Stats (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mechegi01.shtml)

Personally, I think Carlos Silva is a "pitch to contact" nightmare just waiting to happen and I'd much prefer to see another organization make that mistake.

It's difficult to find many starting pitchers in modern history who have maintained success over any appreciable period of time while striking out less than ~5.0 hitters per nine innings. For his career, Carlos Silva sits at 3.8 K/9.

Carlos Silva does 2 of the 3 defense independent aspects of pitching well. He gets a lot of groundballs, which limits his homers, and doesn't walk many. That said, he more than most would seem to be a product of his environment.

To be successful, Silva needs a strong defense behind him and a pitcher friendly ballpark. In Minnesota, he has both, but in Cincy he'd have neither. If you put Silva in GABP in front of the Reds defense, then I think he's in for big trouble.


Twins Defense Efficiency Ratio
2006: .687
2007: .689

Reds Defense Efficiency Ratio
2006: .684
2007: .679

2004-2006 Park Effects
Twins: 91 (9% harder in Metrodome than AL Parks)
Reds: 119 (19% easier in GABP than NL Parks)


The margin for error on guys like Silva is razor thin and I don't think he'd translate at all well to pitching for the Reds. Even with the advantages of a pitcher's park and a solid defense, he's had some very poor seasons.

Carlos Silva's WHIP
2002: 1.31
2003: 1.48
2004: 1.43
2005: 1.17 <-- epically low BB/9 rate
2006: 1.54
2007: 1.31

Silva's WHIP is already questionable, but if you take him out of his pitching friendly environment and drop him into the GABP meat grinder in front of a suspect defense, then I think he'll be something close to Eric Milton Part Deux.

As for Meche, I'll take him over Silva everyday of the week and twice on Sundays. He's always had tremendous stuff, but injury problems have made him inconsistent. He's show flashes of it and had some very strong 1/2 seasons, but never a full season. In 2007, he was finally healthy and able to maintain his peak level of performance over the entire season, which resulted in a tremendous year.

2007
Gil: ERA: 3.67, WHIP: 1.30, BB/9: 2.6, K/9: 6.5, GB/FB: 1.36
Carlos: ERA: 4.19, WHIP: 1.31, BB/9: 1.6, K/9: 4.0, GB/FB: 1.57

Given our limited resources, handing out multimillion dollar contracts to mid/back of the rotation starters is not a wise idea. Meche has always had top of the rotation upside, while Silva is a back of the rotation pitcher. I'd probably be willing to pay for Meche's upside, but not for Silva and "his pitch to contact"/"team dependent" style.

But, just my $.02.

RedsManRick
10-07-2007, 05:26 PM
First 3 starters for all 8 playoff team and how they were acquired:

BOS
1. Beckett - trade
2. Matsuzaka - expensive FA
3. Schilling - expensive FA

LAA
1. Lackey - drafted & developed
2. Escobar - mid-level FA
3. Weaver - drafted & developed

NYY
1. Wang - undrafted FA & developed
2. Pettite - expensive FA
3. Clemens - expensive FA

CLE
1. Sabathia - drafted & developed
2. Carmona - undrafted FA & developed
3. Westbrook - trade & developed

PHI
1. Hamels - drafted & developed
2. Kendrick - drafted & developed
3. Moyer - trade

CHI
1. Zambrano - undrafted FA & developed
2. Lilly - expensive FA
3. Hill - drafted & developed

ARI
1. Webb - drafted & developed
2. Davis - trade
3. Hernandez - trade

COL
1. Francis - drafted & developed
2. Fogg - cheap FA
3. Jiminez - nondrafted FA & developed

Now, I'm going to say this "proves" anything. However, I think it does underscore the importance of developing your own starting pitching. The cost of FA starting pitching is great, and the yearly variability so high, that it's just really freaking hard to build a staff around a free agent staff.

I know that nobody is arguing we go out and spent $60M on a starter, but with Harang and Arroyo both getting reasonably expensive in 2009 and beyond, I think it would wise to consider the potential limiting effects of spending $8-10M on a guy who's absolute upside is league average and who wouldn't surprise anybody if he was replacement level. To me, that's the case for Eric Milton all over again.

Look at that list and see who spent big money on FA starters -- Boston, New York, and Chicago. They could afford to do so. In fact, both the Yankees and Cubs spent Silva money on FA SP who won't make playoff appearances (Marquis & Igawa).

Falls City Beer
10-07-2007, 05:32 PM
First 3 starters for all 8 playoff team and how they were acquired:

BOS
1. Beckett - trade
2. Matsuzaka - expensive FA
3. Schilling - expensive FA

LAA
1. Lackey - drafted & developed
2. Escobar - mid-level FA
3. Weaver - drafted & developed

NYY
1. Wang - undrafted FA & developed
2. Pettite - expensive FA
3. Clemens - expensive FA

CLE
1. Sabathia - drafted & developed
2. Carmona - undrafted FA & developed
3. Westbrook - trade & developed

PHI
1. Hamels - drafted & developed
2. Kendrick - drafted & developed
3. Moyer - trade

CHI
1. Zambrano - undrafted FA & developed
2. Lilly - expensive FA
3. Hill - drafted & developed

ARI
1. Webb - drafted & developed
2. Davis - trade
3. Hernandez - trade

COL
1. Francis - drafted & developed
2. Fogg - cheap FA
3. Jiminez - nondrafted FA & developed

Now, I'm going to say this "proves" anything. However, I think it does underscore the importance of developing your own starting pitching. The cost of FA starting pitching is great, and the yearly variability so high, that it's just really freaking hard to build a staff around a free agent staff.

I know that nobody is arguing we go out and spent $60M on a starter, but with Harang and Arroyo both getting reasonably expensive in 2009 and beyond, I think it would wise to consider the potential limiting effects of spending $8-10M on a guy who's absolute upside is league average and who wouldn't surprise anybody if he was replacement level. To me, that's the case for Eric Milton all over again.

It could also show that the Reds have no desire to exploit the "Harang/Arroyo" competition window, and they might feel they'd be better served by trading both of those pitchers for the 2011 "rebuild."

There's a serious risk either way. It's a serious decision time for this FO.

RedsManRick
10-07-2007, 06:24 PM
It could also show that the Reds have no desire to exploit the "Harang/Arroyo" competition window, and they might feel they'd be better served by trading both of those pitchers for the 2011 "rebuild."

There's a serious risk either way. It's a serious decision time for this FO.

"Serious decision time" huh? I take that you believe unless a team spends big money in FA, they must not be "serious". I'd say not taking a substantial financial risk on a borderline starter shows just how serious they are. Maybe they feel they've already made their significant fiscal commitments in the rotation and want to leave some money available to solve problems elsewhere -- like the bullpen or extended/replacing Dunn.

You're right, there's serious risk either way. But I'd rather take a risk that leaves me the option to correct a problem later than one that ties me in to that choice for a number of years. If the Reds were to sign Silva, what odds would you put on him having an ERA under 4.75? I'd say less than 50&#37; given our defense and park.

If you don't spend the money on him there are two outcomes:
1.) Team lacks talent and you have to invest the money in talent later -- ie. any time you want to. There are starters of Silva's quality available every year. It's not like he's a 1 time opportunity. Slightly poor decision.
2.) The team has sufficient talent and you have extra money to play with on adding talent elsewhere. Good decision.

If you DO spend the money on him there are two outcomes:
1.) He's puts up 200 IP of 4.25 ERA and the Reds are a .500 team, with limited payflex for the next few years. Good decision.
2.) He's a bust and the Reds a .445 team. with limited payflex for the next few years. Horrible decision.

They more concerned about building a sustainable winner than spending 15% of the payroll on a guy who could very well provide zero above replacement production. I'd be happy that we have a GM who doesn't want to put most of his fiscal eggs in a mediocre SP basket.

You keep saying something to the effect that something drastic needs to be done, some big risk has to be taken or we'll never improve. To that, I ask, what big FA risk did the Twins take? What big FA risk did the A's take? The Padres? The Indians?

Yes, a big financial risk CAN payoff. But it's not a pre-requisite to building a winner no matter how much you assert that it is.

Falls City Beer
10-07-2007, 06:30 PM
"Serious decision time" huh? I take that you believe unless a team spends big money in FA, they must not be "serious". I'd say not taking a substantial financial risk on a borderline starter shows just how serious they are. Maybe they feel they've already made their significant fiscal commitments in the rotation and want to leave some money available to solve problems elsewhere -- like the bullpen or extended/replacing Dunn.

You're right, there's serious risk either way. But I'd rather take a risk that leaves me the option to correct a problem later than one that ties me in to that choice for a number of years. If the Reds were to sign Silva, what odds would you put on him having an ERA under 4.75? I'd say less than 50% given our defense and park.

If you don't spend the money on him there are two outcomes:
1.) Team lacks talent and you have to invest the money in talent later -- ie. any time you want to. There are starters of Silva's quality available every year. It's not like he's a 1 time opportunity. Slightly poor decision.
2.) The team has sufficient talent and you have extra money to play with on adding talent elsewhere. Good decision.

If you DO spend the money on him there are two outcomes:
1.) He's puts up 200 IP of 4.25 ERA and the Reds are a .500 team, with limited payflex for the next few years. Good decision.
2.) He's a bust and the Reds a .445 team. with limited payflex for the next few years. Horrible decision.

They more concerned about building a sustainable winner than spending 15% of the payroll on a guy who could very well provide zero above replacement production. I'd be happy that we have a GM who doesn't want to put most of his fiscal eggs in a mediocre SP basket.

You keep saying something to the effect that something drastic needs to be done, some big risk has to be taken or we'll never improve. To that, I ask, what big FA risk did the Twins take? What big FA risk did the A's take? The Padres? The Indians?

Yes, a big financial risk CAN payoff. But it's not a pre-requisite to building a winner no matter how much you assert that it is.

Where did I say I want them to shell out FA bucks?

Why can't they trade? Has that option been removed?

All I'm saying is that without some kind of push to acquire talent this offseason, they could fritter away their pitching competition window with Arroyo/Harang. That's pretty inarguable, yet you're trying to argue it.

RedsManRick
10-07-2007, 06:57 PM
Where did I say I want them to shell out FA bucks?

Why can't they trade? Has that option been removed?

All I'm saying is that without some kind of push to acquire talent this offseason, they could fritter away their pitching competition window with Arroyo/Harang. That's pretty inarguable, yet you're trying to argue it.

Where have I said that they shouldn't acquire more talent? NOWHERE did I say we shouldn't try to acquire talent in the offseason. I did make a post saying that the Reds shouldn't take on significant fiscal risk to acquire mediocre pitching talent in FA. I'm sorry if you interpreted that as "fritter away the competitive window".

The quickest way to fritter away that window would be to commit nearly all available fiscal resources while still failing to acquire sufficient talent to truly take advantage of said window.

But if Krivsky has shown anything, it's that acquiring talent, even significant talent, doesn't necessarily require major risk. Of course, I might use the Conine or Lohse trades for prospects to restock the system -- a system finally bearing some fruit -- as an example of another way to add talent to the organization, but I know how that conversation goes.

Falls City Beer
10-07-2007, 07:43 PM
Where have I said that they shouldn't acquire more talent? NOWHERE did I say we shouldn't try to acquire talent in the offseason. I did make a post saying that the Reds shouldn't take on significant fiscal risk to acquire mediocre pitching talent in FA. I'm sorry if you interpreted that as "fritter away the competitive window".

The quickest way to fritter away that window would be to commit nearly all available fiscal resources while still failing to acquire sufficient talent to truly take advantage of said window.

But if Krivsky has shown anything, it's that acquiring talent, even significant talent, doesn't necessarily require major risk. Of course, I might use the Conine or Lohse trades for prospects to restock the system -- a system finally bearing some fruit -- as an example of another way to add talent to the organization, but I know how that conversation goes.

You can pick up prospects AND help your MLB team; Beane does it all the time.

RedsManRick
10-07-2007, 07:57 PM
You can pick up prospects AND help your MLB team; Beane does it all the time.

Brandon Phillips doesn't count? Josh Hamilton doesn't count? Did Jeff Keppinger appear out of thin air? What about Jared Burton?

Kyle Lohse and his 4.58 ERA in 195 IP as a Red and he was run out of town by 80&#37; of this board. I don't know what they think they're going to get from a Carlos Silva.

Scott Hatteberg was a low risk FA signing that worked out well.

So, in terms of large financial commitments to players in FA, as per my specific reticence, when is the last time Beane committed 10% or more of his payroll to a single player? How did that work out for him. He spent $8.5M for 309 AB of .717 OPS from his DH this year. How did Esteban Loaiza work out?