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Krusty
10-07-2007, 09:57 AM
Read Hal McCoy's column today and it got me thinking about this trade idea:

Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarncion to the SF Giants for RHP Matt Cain.

Giants are rebuilding. Hamiton is a replacement for Bonds in LF and Encarncion would play 3rd base. Reds would use Keppinger at third base and the Reds would have an outfield of Dunn, Freel/Hopper, Griffey with Bruce waiting in the wings.

The addition of Cain would give the Reds a solid rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Cain, Bailey and ?.

Opinions?

PuffyPig
10-07-2007, 11:14 AM
We give up a lot, and get alot.

If the Giants would move Cain, this is the type of trade that could be made.

I think the Giants will try hard to move Lowry, who simply doesn't have the upside of a Cain.

You'd have to give up a lot for Cain, but you've done that.

RedsManRick
10-07-2007, 11:36 AM
Interesting idea Krusty. Cain's Achilles heel has been his control and he's made up for it by keeping the ball in the yard. He does miss bats, but he's a flyball pitcher with control problems; that scares me just a touch.

And let's be careful not to underestimate Josh Hamilton's offensive value. Only 11 OF with as many PA as Hamilton had a .900+ OPS. I know he can be replaced by Bruce this year, but it leaves a fairly big hole in 2009 and beyond, especially if Dunn leaves via FA.



2007, All OF, 275+ PA, Sorted by OPS
Rk Player TEAM BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Barry Bonds SFO .276 .480 .565 1.045
2 Magglio Ordonez DET .363 .434 .595 1.029
3 Matt Holliday COL .340 .405 .607 1.012
4 Vladimir Guerrero LAA .324 .403 .547 .950
5 Adam Dunn CIN .264 .386 .554 .940
6 Brad Hawpe COL .291 .387 .539 .926
7 Josh Hamilton CIN .292 .368 .554 .922
8 Matt Stairs TOR .289 .368 .549 .917
9 Moises Alou NYM .341 .392 .524 .916
10 Curtis Granderson DET .302 .361 .552 .913
11 Pat Burrell PHI .256 .400 .502 .902

One thing to consider with Hamilton is that because of his age, we're likely to get his peak at dirt cheap prices. If we're going to go after a SP, Cain is a fine target. But let's be careful about not creating another problem in the process. I know you have to give talent to get talent, but trading both of those guys at once makes it a hard trade to "win".

TOBTTReds
10-07-2007, 11:54 AM
I think we have to get another player in return. That is A LOT to be giving up for one pitcher, that has had major problems with is command.

I think when people think about Josh Hamilton, they feel he has reached his peak. He has played one year of MLB since taking 3 years off. He has a chance to be a major stud, as does Edwin. We have no replacement for Edwin either (not Kepp please). We would have to replace him. My first thought was Pedro Feliz, but he will ask for a lot. He has gold glove D and is a righty.

jojo
10-07-2007, 12:00 PM
I think when people think about Josh Hamilton, they feel he has reached his peak.

There's probably a couple of fears with Hamilton...did we just see Kearn's first year will next year be one of disappointed expectations? If Hamilton is for real and we've seen his true performance level, are we looking at JD Drew from an injury standpoint?

Krusty
10-07-2007, 12:01 PM
You got to remember the free agent market for starting pitchers stink. That makes the prices for quality pitchers like Cain go through the roof.

You have to give the Giants a reason to trade a pitcher of the caliber of Cain. They are rebuilding. Hamilton and Encarncion are two players that can help in that rebuilding process.

You don't trade Encarncion unless you have a Keppinger to replace him. While Keppinger might not have the home run power and RBI potential as Encarncion, he is an excellent number two hitter that can put the ball in play.....something we haven't seen since Barry Larkin was at the top of the lineup.

As for Hamilton, I question whether he will be an everyday ballplayer given his track record for injuries. If I'm the Reds, I extend Big Donkey's contract for four years since no team will trade for him without a contract extension. And with a team committing that type of money do you think they will give up significant quantity of young talent in return? I have no problem with a Freel/Hopper combo in CF and batting in the leadoff position. Griffey would be back for one more year and even when he needs a few days off, you got Jay Bruce who you can break in slowly at the major league level.

Trading Cain would bolster the rotation. Problem with the Giants is they didn't score runs for him. With the Reds he could have a breakout season. Acquire him and the Reds rotation looks pretty good. And with Bray, Burton and Weathers closing games next season, I could see the Reds maybe turning this around and having a .500 season or above.

pahster
10-07-2007, 12:26 PM
My first thought was Pedro Feliz, but he will ask for a lot. He has gold glove D and is a righty.

Career (AVG/OBP/SLG) - .252/.288/.433
Career high OBP = .305 in 2004.

No thank you.

RedsManRick
10-07-2007, 12:27 PM
Convince me that Keppinger isn't just Stynes 2.0 and I'd feel a little better about it. Convince me that we won't be left with a 2009 OF of Hopper/Dickerson/Bruce. The idea is right insofar as we'd be trading away 2 guys who we can replace in 2008. But until Frazier is ready, we've got nothing in house in the 3B pipeline and we could potentially be losing both Dunn and Junior in 2009.

Another thing, Cain is a flyball pitcher who allowed just 14 HR last year. How's that work? Well, he allowed just 5 HR in nearly 100 IP on the road. He allowed 9 at home, in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. What will his ERA look like if he allows 22-24 HR instead of 14, with those walk rates.

I wouldn't be dead set against it, because as you point out, good pitching is so expensive and hard to come by. I just wonder if maybe we can't do it with one of those guys and some prospects - say EE and Stubbs.

Krusty
10-07-2007, 12:34 PM
Are you willing to give up Bruce or Votto to get Cain? I'm not and nor should the Reds. As I said, Hamilton's injury history concerns me whether he can be an everyday player. Trading Encarncion hurts but it is easier to find a stopgap third baseman (if Keppinger flops in 2008) than it is to find a pitcher of Cain's caliber.

Krusty
10-07-2007, 12:36 PM
Convince me that Keppinger isn't just Stynes 2.0 and I'd feel a little better about it. Convince me that we won't be left with a 2009 OF of Hopper/Dickerson/Bruce. The idea is right insofar as we'd be trading away 2 guys who we can replace in 2008. But until Frazier is ready, we've got nothing in house in the 3B pipeline and we could potentially be losing both Dunn and Junior in 2009.

Another thing, Cain is a flyball pitcher who allowed just 14 HR last year. How's that work? Well, he allowed just 5 HR in nearly 100 IP on the road. He allowed 9 at home, in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. What will his ERA look like if he allows 22-24 HR instead of 14, with those walk rates.

I wouldn't be dead set against it, because as you point out, good pitching is so expensive and hard to come by. I just wonder if maybe we can't do it with one of those guys and some prospects - say EE and Stubbs.

You think Castanelli and Dunn had lunch for the sake of having lunch? I think plans are in the works to keep Big Donkey here for a long time. Get Dunn signed and ready to pencil Bruce in RF for the next 10 years and go with a combo of Freel/Hopper for now (Freel's trade value is nil right now).

OnBaseMachine
10-07-2007, 12:45 PM
Interesting idea, but I'm against it. I love Matt Cain but the Reds offense would take a big hit by trading Edwin and Hamilton. Those two guys are young, cheap and well above average major league players. I would prefer to hang on to them and deal for a younger pitcher who hasn't put it together yet who could be had for a decent price (i.e., Jonathan Sanchez, Ervin Santana, Cliff Lee).

Falls City Beer
10-07-2007, 12:47 PM
Interesting idea, but I'm against it. I love Matt Cain but the Reds offense would take a big hit by trading Edwin and Hamilton. Those two guys are young, cheap and well above average major league players. I would prefer to hang on to them and deal for a younger pitcher who hasn't put it together yet who could be had for a decent price (i.e., Jonathan Sanchez, Ervin Santana, Cliff Lee).

The problem though is that Ervin Santana and Cliff Lee are bad pitchers.

Kc61
10-07-2007, 12:48 PM
Are you willing to give up Bruce or Votto to get Cain? I'm not and nor should the Reds. As I said, Hamilton's injury history concerns me whether he can be an everyday player. Trading Encarncion hurts but it is easier to find a stopgap third baseman (if Keppinger flops in 2008) than it is to find a pitcher of Cain's caliber.

You wouldn't trade Votto straight up for Cain?

Falls City Beer
10-07-2007, 12:50 PM
You wouldn't trade Votto straight up for Cain?

I agree, you'd have to be out of your mind not to trade Votto for Cain straight up.

But it doesn't matter, Sabean would fart into the phone after hearing that proposal.

OnBaseMachine
10-07-2007, 12:52 PM
The problem though is that Ervin Santana and Cliff Lee are bad pitchers.

With the stuff to improve. If you read my post you would see where I wrote that the Reds should target young, cheap pitchers who have yet to put it together. Ervin Santana and Cliff Lee fit that description.

OnBaseMachine
10-07-2007, 12:53 PM
But it doesn't matter, Sabean would fart into the phone after hearing that proposal.

Would he?

This is the guy that traded Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski.

Falls City Beer
10-07-2007, 12:55 PM
With the stuff to improve. If you read my post you would see where I wrote that the Reds should target young, cheap pitchers who have yet to put it together. Ervin Santana and Cliff Lee fit that description.

Cliff Lee does not fit that description. And I'm just not sure where you're guessing Santana has to go, except for a tea date with Ramon Ortiz.

OnBaseMachine
10-07-2007, 12:58 PM
In 2005, Cliff Lee posted a 3.79 ERA, .697 OPSA, and a 6.37 K/9. If he can be had cheaply then I see nothing wrong with attempting to get another 2005 season out of him.

Falls City Beer
10-07-2007, 12:59 PM
In 2005, Cliff Lee posted a 3.79 ERA, .697 OPSA, and a 6.37 K/9. If he can be had cheaply then I see nothing wrong with attempting to get another 2005 season out of him.

I have no problem inviting him to Spring Training. But the guy will be 30 next season.

Falls City Beer
10-07-2007, 01:03 PM
Back to the original trade proposal: absolutely I'd trade Hamilton and EdE for Cain.

It'd open up CF for Bruce next season; and a third baseman is easier to find than a starter.

mth123
10-07-2007, 01:35 PM
You think Castanelli and Dunn had lunch for the sake of having lunch? I think plans are in the works to keep Big Donkey here for a long time. Get Dunn signed and ready to pencil Bruce in RF for the next 10 years and go with a combo of Freel/Hopper for now (Freel's trade value is nil right now).

If the Reds can't deal some combination of Griffey/Freel/Hatte along with some of the second tier prospects (i.e not top 4 guys) for the pitching they need (and I have doubts that they can), then I think Hamilton is the right guy to deal. The spectre of relapse looms large IMO. History shows that it usually happens and I'd get something while the gettin' is good. I don't see the Giants dealing Cain, but could the Reds get Corriea and Sanchez for a package involving Hamilton and some lesser stuff (Freel? Maloney? Lecure? one of the bullpen pack?)? Would adding Corriea and Sanchez to the Belisle, Bailey, Cueto mix be enough? The Giants will be pushing Lowry and his 3.92 ERA and will probably get a good offensive prospect for him and may end up keeping their other pitchers while they sort through internal options and a few free agents. It will be interesting to see what they do. They have a lot of money freed up with Bonds, Feliz, Klesko, Matheny and Vizquel off the books (Vizquel may be back) and could be a factor in a lot of stuff. They have the money free to take on a guy like Dunn if the he and the Reds are so inclined.


I'm skeptical enough of Cain in GABP for the reasons RMR outlined that I wouldn't deal both Hamilton and EdE for him. As I said above, they probably wouldn't trade him and it may take a deal like the one proposed to get him.

mth123
10-07-2007, 01:44 PM
In 2005, Cliff Lee posted a 3.79 ERA, .697 OPSA, and a 6.37 K/9. If he can be had cheaply then I see nothing wrong with attempting to get another 2005 season out of him.

Lee couldn't make the post season roster in Cleveland and spent much of the year in AAA. He is signed for $3.75 Million in 2008 and $5.75 Million in 2009. I'd take a flyer on him for some one like Freel so that the $ are not a big add to the payroll, and then throw him in the mix for the back of the rotation. The problem I see is this team would look at the $ and write him into the rotation in stone as the number 3 guy.

red-in-la
10-07-2007, 01:55 PM
If I am going to empty the cupboard (so to speak) to get a pitcher, he needs to be an ace, or one in waiting. Maybe Cain is that guy, but I think it should be a pitcher who has already had at least one really good year at the ML level.

RedsManRick
10-07-2007, 01:59 PM
You think Castanelli and Dunn had lunch for the sake of having lunch? I think plans are in the works to keep Big Donkey here for a long time. Get Dunn signed and ready to pencil Bruce in RF for the next 10 years and go with a combo of Freel/Hopper for now (Freel's trade value is nil right now).

Well, I think it takes two to tango and the only thing Cincy has going for it from Dunn's perspective is a nice hitter's environment and familiarity. Frankly, I'd be surprised to see him not test the FA waters.

If I'm the Reds, I wouldn't go above 3 & 45 or 4 & 54. If I'm Dunn, I wouldn't go below 5 & 70. The Reds just can't afford a Carlos Lee like offer. It's the not the per year that kills them, it's the risk. They just can't afford the chance of any player eating up an 8 figure salary and not giving them great production. I'd be worried about his legs over the next few years, particularly if 1B is blocked and there's no DH.

Krusty
10-07-2007, 02:24 PM
You wouldn't trade Votto straight up for Cain?

I would but the Giants wouldn't.

Krusty
10-07-2007, 02:27 PM
In 2005, Cliff Lee posted a 3.79 ERA, .697 OPSA, and a 6.37 K/9. If he can be had cheaply then I see nothing wrong with attempting to get another 2005 season out of him.

And if you're Cleveland, hitting isn't the problem. Why would you deal one of your starting pitchers for something that isn't a pressing need?

11BarryLarkin11
10-07-2007, 02:28 PM
If I'm getting one of the Giants two stud pitchers, then I want Lincecum over Cain. That said, I don't think I'd trade Hamilton at this point. I think he's got MVP potential and one season isn't enough for me to slap the "injury prone" label on the guy.

After years of watching Dunn and Griffey play atrocious outfield defense, I'm looking forward to the future of having Hamilton and Bruce filling 2 of the 3 outfield spots.

Rather than giving up the farm to land Lincecum or Cain, I'd be more than happy to see the Reds acquire Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez in a lesser deal with the Giants. I think either could be a very solid addition to our starting rotation.

PuffyPig
10-07-2007, 03:02 PM
I agree, you'd have to be out of your mind not to trade Votto for Cain straight up.

But it doesn't matter, Sabean would fart into the phone after hearing that proposal.

Well, it would be worth making the proposal just to get that reaction....
:D

Highlifeman21
10-07-2007, 03:09 PM
Are you willing to give up Bruce or Votto to get Cain? I'm not and nor should the Reds. As I said, Hamilton's injury history concerns me whether he can be an everyday player. Trading Encarncion hurts but it is easier to find a stopgap third baseman (if Keppinger flops in 2008) than it is to find a pitcher of Cain's caliber.

I would much rather give up Votto than Hamilton to get Cain. If we give up Hamilton, then RMR's vision of Hopper/Dickerson/Bruce will definitely come true.

That's not a pretty vision if you're a Reds fan.

mth123
10-07-2007, 03:50 PM
I would much rather give up Votto than Hamilton to get Cain. If we give up Hamilton, then RMR's vision of Hopper/Dickerson/Bruce will definitely come true.

That's not a pretty vision if you're a Reds fan.

Hamilton has relapse risk associated with him that the others don't have. You could end up with the Hopper/Dickerson/Bruce scenario and not have Votto as well.

I've seen too many guys seemingly have it licked and then fall off the wagon. I hope he never does and goes on to win that MVP. I'd rather some other team hold the risk. If I could get a good pitcher for him its a no brainer IMO. If both Dunn and Griffey leave after 2008 and Hamilton is no longer here, I'd imagine that there would be plenty o' cash to get a decent bat (maybe 2) who can play OF.

Again, I'd try Griffey, Hatte, Freel and some second tier prospects first, but if I had to include a younger core player, it would be Hamilton.

dougdirt
10-07-2007, 03:58 PM
The odds of Matt Cain being on the market are very low.

That said, if he were, I would absolutely trade Hamilton and Edwin for him. The guy is a stud. Yeah, he walks a few guys, but he strikes plenty of guys out and people don't hit him very hard at all.

RedsManRick
10-07-2007, 04:20 PM
I will say one thing, the middling offensive performance of EE and the below average defense (by every measurement I'm aware of) is making me think that if he can serve as the keystone of a trade for a legit league average or better starter, I'd be willing to take the risk of giving Keppinger a full time job.

EE's approach at the plate has declined since 2005, as it seems like he's trying to kill the ball rather than just put good wood on it. It's showing up in his increasing IF FB$, decreasing LD%, and decreasing HR/FB. He's just turned in to a pop-up machine. I used to think he could be like Mike Lowell, with a solid OBP, 20-25 HR, and a bucket of doubles. Now I'm thinking more like Aaron Boone.

Krusty
10-07-2007, 04:27 PM
You have to give up something in order to get something. If the Giants are willing to part with one of their young arms in order to get a couple of young hitters in their rebuilding process, then you can forget talking about the likes of parting with Freel, Griffey and Dunn.

I think Votto and Bruce are future stars for this team and should be labeled untouchables. That said.....every other young player is available.

Highlifeman21
10-07-2007, 04:46 PM
Hamilton has relapse risk associated with him that the others don't have. You could end up with the Hopper/Dickerson/Bruce scenario and not have Votto as well.

I've seen too many guys seemingly have it licked and then fall off the wagon. I hope he never does and goes on to win that MVP. I'd rather some other team hold the risk. If I could get a good pitcher for him its a no brainer IMO. If both Dunn and Griffey leave after 2008 and Hamilton is no longer here, I'd imagine that there would be plenty o' cash to get a decent bat (maybe 2) who can play OF.

Again, I'd try Griffey, Hatte, Freel and some second tier prospects first, but if I had to include a younger core player, it would be Hamilton.

Relapse is always going to be a risk with Hamilton, but I'd rather us stay by his side while he's still clean, than to pass him off to some other team assuming he won't stay clean. I would hope our loyalty to him, coupled with the willingness to play him at the MLB level would in turn result in his loyalty to the Reds.

Do I think the Reds could get Matt Cain for EE and Hamilton? Absolutely not. While the Giants are an ancient team most probably looking at a long-term rebuild, IMO they could get way more than EE and Hamilton if they chose to trade Matt Cain. Now if we were dangling Votto, and Bailey their way, then they might be more interested, but from the onset, I don't see EE and Hamilton being some of interest for the Giants to pursue.

I'd love to know what pitching help we could feasibly get by moving Griffey, but I have this lingering feeling that he'll be with us for 2008.

mth123
10-07-2007, 05:08 PM
Relapse is always going to be a risk with Hamilton, but I'd rather us stay by his side while he's still clean, than to pass him off to some other team assuming he won't stay clean. I would hope our loyalty to him, coupled with the willingness to play him at the MLB level would in turn result in his loyalty to the Reds.

Do I think the Reds could get Matt Cain for EE and Hamilton? Absolutely not. While the Giants are an ancient team most probably looking at a long-term rebuild, IMO they could get way more than EE and Hamilton if they chose to trade Matt Cain. Now if we were dangling Votto, and Bailey their way, then they might be more interested, but from the onset, I don't see EE and Hamilton being some of interest for the Giants to pursue.

I'd love to know what pitching help we could feasibly get by moving Griffey, but I have this lingering feeling that he'll be with us for 2008.

I understand and I want to feel that way as well. Hamilton missed 4 years due to his problems. Its not an aberration, but a lifelong struggle. He's a super talent and I wanted Freel dealt with CF handed to him in spring, but long term I don't think the Reds should plan around a guy who has repeatedly shown he can not be trusted. To this day he isn't allowed to handle his own money due to the risk of temptation.

I think writing his name into the long term plan is building on an uncertain foundation. The Reds made a shrewd move to acquire him. In 2007 he established a pretty high value and was a huge windfall for the organization. I'd parlay that windfall into something less uncertain and solidify that organizational gain. As is, the next poor choice lurking around the corner may take it all away. Smart lotto winners invest in something stable. Other types end up as stories about how the windfall ended up ruining their life. Trading one of the other core players while counting on Hamilton to fill the void, could be like the guy who quits his job and blows all his winnings and has nothing left when the funds run out.

PuffyPig
10-07-2007, 08:17 PM
Smart lotto winners invest in something stable.

Who's to say that the pitcher we aquire doesn't blow out his arm.

I don't like using the words "pitching" and "stable" in the same sentence.

Form the Reds to contend, they need to take some chances. Hamiltom produced a .900+ OPS as a raw rookie.

I'd take a chance that his trade value will improve unless a guy like Cain is available.

mth123
10-07-2007, 08:23 PM
Who's to say that the pitcher we aquire doesn't blow out his arm.

I don't like using the words "pitching" and "stable" in the same sentence.

Form the Reds to contend, they need to take some chances. Hamiltom produced a .900+ OPS as a raw rookie.

I'd take a chance that his trade value will improve unless a guy like Cain is available.

You're right about pitchers not being stable. Valid point. It doesn't change the logic. If the Reds are going to trade for a pitcher who blows out his arm I'd still rather trade Hamilton than Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Dunn or EdE.

Say you trade Votto, the pitcher blows out his arm and Hamilton relapses. You have no pitcher, no Hamilton and no Votto. Trading Hamilton, you'd at least still have Votto.

PuffyPig
10-07-2007, 09:12 PM
You're right about pitchers not being stable. Valid point. It doesn't change the logic. If the Reds are going to trade for a pitcher who blows out his arm I'd still rather trade Hamilton than Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Dunn or EdE.

Say you trade Votto, the pitcher blows out his arm and Hamilton relapses. You have no pitcher, no Hamilton and no Votto. Trading Hamilton, you'd at least still have Votto.

If we could trade Dunn for a guy like Cain we would do so. That's easy. Buy Dunns' trade value isn't close to cain's.

I'd trade Phillips for Cain also, as while he his good, he's very much overrated offensively .

Hamilton's trade value will likely get higher, EE may or may not.

I'd only trade Hamilton in a deal for a guy like Cain. He simply has too much upside.

Falls City Beer
10-07-2007, 09:15 PM
If we could trade Dunn for a guy like Cain we would do so. That's easy. Buy Dunns' trade value isn't close to cain's.

I'd trade Phillips for Cain also, as while he his good, he's very much overrated offensively .

Hamilton's trade value will likely get higher, EE may or may not.

I'd only trade Hamilton in a deal for a guy like Cain. He simply has too much upside.

Considering their ages and Hamilton's fragility/chemical dependency status, I'd say EdE and Hamilton are about even money bets to get better.

Jpup
10-07-2007, 09:15 PM
as soon as I saw Josh Hamilton's name I stopped reading. Any trade involving him would be a bad idea IMO.

dougdirt
10-07-2007, 09:22 PM
as soon as I saw Josh Hamilton's name I stopped reading. Any trade involving him would be a bad idea IMO.

Josh Hamilton for Johan Santana would be a bad idea? How about for Jake Peavy? Cole Hamels?

There are plenty of people I would trade Josh Hamilton for.

Jpup
10-07-2007, 09:24 PM
Josh Hamilton for Johan Santana would be a bad idea? How about for Jake Peavy? Cole Hamels?

There are plenty of people I would trade Josh Hamilton for.

Both would be bad because the Reds wouldn't pay them the kind of money to keep them. It's just the way it is. Hamilton has too much talent and is too cheap to trade away.

Falls City Beer
10-07-2007, 09:26 PM
Both would be bad because the Reds wouldn't pay them the kind of money to keep them. It's just the way it is. Hamilton has too much talent and is too cheap to trade away.

If the Reds can't afford real talent then they should quit. Seriously.

Jpup
10-07-2007, 09:30 PM
If the Reds can't afford real talent then they should quit. Seriously.

20 million for a pitcher is way too much for any team. Ask the Yankees. Josh Hamilton is real talent and guys like him do not come around very often. The Reds will need offense in the years to come as well. Ask the Padres, pitching alone does not win. Trading Josh Hamilton would be a terrible step in the wrong direction.

mth123
10-07-2007, 10:13 PM
If we could trade Dunn for a guy like Cain we would do so. That's easy. Buy Dunns' trade value isn't close to cain's.

I'd trade Phillips for Cain also, as while he his good, he's very much overrated offensively .

Hamilton's trade value will likely get higher, EE may or may not.

I'd only trade Hamilton in a deal for a guy like Cain. He simply has too much upside.

I'd trade any of them for Cain. If the Giants let me pick which one, I'd trade Hamilton. I didn't say I would give him away. Let me clarify, if it takes dealing a core guy to get the kind of pitcher the Reds need for the future, then Hamilton is the guy the Reds should deal (assuming he can get the pitcher needed in return).

Somebody has to be traded for a pitcher for the team to move forward. When I look at the guys on the team, I'd surely try to unload Griffey, Hatte and Freel first. But IMO those guys won't bring anything back that is as good as Belisle. The Reds need some one who is clearly better than that. Some one of Arroyo's caliber or better. If that means dipping into the young core, then I prefer Hamilton be the one to go to avoid the possibility of him relapsing and the Reds being left with nothing. IMO the possibility of Hamilton regressing is more likely than one of the others developing a career ending or altering injury or some other problem. As a matter of fact anything that could happen to any of the others is just as likely to happen to Hamilton too. But the others don't have a crack addiction hanging over their head. Its as simple as that.

Krusty
10-07-2007, 10:31 PM
20 million for a pitcher is way too much for any team. Ask the Yankees. Josh Hamilton is real talent and guys like him do not come around very often. The Reds will need offense in the years to come as well. Ask the Padres, pitching alone does not win. Trading Josh Hamilton would be a terrible step in the wrong direction.

Hamilton has talent but so did Eric Davis and Junior. And with the injuries, how much did the Reds get for their buck? Up till this season, Hamilton was a forgotten former prospect. You tell me we can flip him now for a pitcher that has the stuff of someone like Cain, I say where do we sign on the dotted line. Outfielders even the likes of Hamilton's potential (see Jay Bruce) are easier to replace than acquiring pitchers of the caliber of Matt Cain and Minnesota's Santana

red-in-la
10-07-2007, 10:35 PM
I would think that Adam Dunn might relieve the sting of Barry being gone. I just cannot see why so many here choose to devalue Dunn in terms of trade bait.

dougdirt
10-07-2007, 10:45 PM
Both would be bad because the Reds wouldn't pay them the kind of money to keep them. It's just the way it is. Hamilton has too much talent and is too cheap to trade away.

Cole Hamels is under control for 4 more years at likely a combined 20 million dollars for them combined (and he made $400,000 this year). I would trade Josh Hamilton for that kind of talent with that kind of deal without blinking once.

For that matter, I would trade Hamilton for a lot of young pitchers (ok, not really a LOT, but at least 10).

dougdirt
10-07-2007, 10:45 PM
I would think that Adam Dunn might relieve the sting of Barry being gone. I just cannot see why so many here choose to devalue Dunn in terms of trade bait.

Becuase his value is very limited on the market?

red-in-la
10-08-2007, 12:07 AM
Becuase his value is very limited on the market?

Why? Because he is eligible for FA after the coming season? So what. Lots of players are eligible after 2008.

The Yankees paid Clemens 24 million dolars for about 24 starts....

Ask the Padres or the Dodgers or even the Mets if they wouldn't want 40 plus HR's on their roster next year.

fearofpopvol1
10-08-2007, 12:49 AM
I think EdE could have a breakout year in 2008. I think 2008 will really determine what he's worth in the long-term picture. With that said, I would do this deal in a heartbeat. I do question Hamilton's ability to stay healthy and I'd take the gamble with Keppinger at 3rd (who is still a right handed bat and a productive player). I don't think the Giants would do it, though. Heck, I'd trade Dunn for Cain straight up as well (even though I know a lot of people wouldn't do that). The kid just turned 23 as well and likely hasn't even hit his peak yet.

RedlegJake
10-08-2007, 05:47 AM
Dunn IS undervalued in many GMs minds - or at least by all reports there are many GMs who simply don't understand his value or think his defense and strikeouts offset much of his offense. There is also the backlash if a GM gives up too much to get Dunn - most fans don't begin to understand his value. If he is extended and plays until June he gets to limit his trade options to 10 teams. How many of those teams will be on the "Donkey is valuable" side of the equation? How many will really need him ewnough to give up a stud pitcher? You may very well end up with a very limited market that undercuts your negotiating stance. I simply think that Castellini should play all that to the Reds advantage in negotiating a LT deal with Dunn. Lunch was a great start. Sounds like Cast made Dunn feel that his opinion was valued - his knowledge and veteran savvy acknowledged. That can go a long, long way. Played right and followed up properly the Reds could get Dunn on a new 4-5 year deal that relative to many other stud hitters is a bargain. And yes - I think $13-15 milllion a year for a guy who has always played regularly, who plays through pain and has a proven record of a high OPS is a steal in todays market. Locking up Dunn gives you freedom to move Votto OR Hamilton OR Bruce. Then Hamilton-EE, or Votto-EE or Bruce straight up for a Matt Cain looks pretty darn enticing because you still have Dunn and 2 of either Bruce-Votto-Hamilton, or Dunn and Votto-Hamilton-EE.

Hamilton's injury risk is real but I give him til the end of next season to really judge that. The guy was out for 3 years doing NOTHING to stay and shape and everything to kill himself. Of course he had problems his first year back with a big league schedule! If he had not been injured it would have been a bigger miracle than his comeback. I'd wait til next year before I condemn him to part time status.

Yes - I'd trade Jay Bruce. Talk about "when the value is highest". But it would have to be a young ace with a ML resume and Cain is probably the lowest denominator that I'd consider and then only if I had Dunn locked in.

Jpup
10-08-2007, 05:47 AM
Cole Hamels is under control for 4 more years at likely a combined 20 million dollars for them combined (and he made $400,000 this year). I would trade Josh Hamilton for that kind of talent with that kind of deal without blinking once.

For that matter, I would trade Hamilton for a lot of young pitchers (ok, not really a LOT, but at least 10).

The last time I checked, Cole Hamels is not available.

dougdirt
10-08-2007, 07:27 AM
The last time I checked, Cole Hamels is not available.

Very true, but you stated he is too productive and cheap to trade away..... and thats probably not true. If the Giants called and offered Lincecum or Cain, or the Phils offered Hamels or the Yankees offered Hughes or Chamberlain.... you listen to those deals, then pull the trigger faster than you can blink.

buckeyenut
10-08-2007, 08:43 AM
I like the idea in theory. I think SF is a good target as they have a lot of young pitching to deal. I also think their GM is vulnerable to the dumb move. But before offering up EE or Hamilton, I'd be exploring options with Jr, Hopper, Keppinger, Gonzalez with Sabean. I would save Hamilton and EE as a last resort, even if it means looking at one of their lesser options.

I'd also be of the position of wanting another flyer arm from the minors if it did come down to the principals you suggest. Pitching is too risky, so I would want a B level SP prospect to offset my risk in dealing two young top of the line players.

bucksfan2
10-08-2007, 08:54 AM
There is really no way I trade Hamilton this year. He showed way too much this past season after being off for 5 years. He is too talented and way too cheap to trade away now. Assuming he stays clean there will always be a market for him. I liken him to JD Drew. Drew has always been injury prone but he has been a coveted product in baseball. He also has a skill set that is very unreplaceable. He would probably be a top notch corner outfielder while playing an average CF. If Cain is on the market I would start with EE and then go from there. I think Keppy could be a suitable repalcement and EE would still have quite a bit of upside for the Giants.

puca
10-08-2007, 08:58 AM
Despite his upside and his production this past season, I can't see that Hamilton has much trade value. He would have to still be viewed as an enormous risk by other GMs. And what signal does it send if the Reds shopped him? It will take 2-3 injury and drug free years before his market value starts to approach his talent level.

Highlifeman21
10-08-2007, 09:49 AM
Seriously, Bailey for Cain, and see what else it takes.

Bailey and Stubbs for Cain? Where does Wayne sign?


I'd much rather have a trio of Harang, Cain, Arroyo and 2 question marks than Harang, Arroyo and 3 question marks.

Falls City Beer
10-08-2007, 10:11 AM
Despite his upside and his production this past season, I can't see that Hamilton has much trade value. He would have to still be viewed as an enormous risk by other GMs. And what signal does it send if the Reds shopped him? It will take 2-3 injury and drug free years before his market value starts to approach his talent level.

I think this is right.

IslandRed
10-08-2007, 11:26 AM
Despite his upside and his production this past season, I can't see that Hamilton has much trade value. He would have to still be viewed as an enormous risk by other GMs. And what signal does it send if the Reds shopped him? It will take 2-3 injury and drug free years before his market value starts to approach his talent level.

That's a good point. We're still at the point where, if the Reds toss out his name so much as once in trade talks, the word will go around baseball in a flash -- "Hamilton must be relapsing, the Reds are trying to dump him." Even if Krivsky is willing to pursue a Hamilton trade, he's got to wait for the other guy to bring it up, or he has to maneuver it so it appears to be the other team's idea. Tricky thing there.

coachw513
10-08-2007, 04:16 PM
Read Hal McCoy's column today and it got me thinking about this trade idea:

Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarncion to the SF Giants for RHP Matt Cain.

Giants are rebuilding. Hamiton is a replacement for Bonds in LF and Encarncion would play 3rd base. Reds would use Keppinger at third base and the Reds would have an outfield of Dunn, Freel/Hopper, Griffey with Bruce waiting in the wings.

The addition of Cain would give the Reds a solid rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Cain, Bailey and ?.

Opinions?


It would kill me and I'd only make this offer as a last-resort to close the deal, but yes, to change this club into something other than an "offensive freak show" we would need to probably make a deal like this one...

I'd rather it be Votto and EE, with Dunn being signed long-term and moving to 1b under the guidance of our new, insightful manager..

Well, actually I'd rather it be Castro, Ellison and Jorgensen...guess that one's off the table, huh?? :D

Krusty
10-08-2007, 04:23 PM
The price would be steep for any young arm that is the caliber of Cain. The free agent market bears very little and any team shopping young arms know teams will overpay given the market.

I really would hate to trade any of the young players like Hamilton, Encarncion, Votto, Burton and Bruce but what's the old saying......you have to give up something to get something?