PDA

View Full Version : Castellini: Krivsky's safe



Matt700wlw
10-08-2007, 04:42 PM
Maybe this goes in the Jocketty thread...I don't know.


Castellini: Krivsky's safe

There's been a lot of speculation nationally about the possibility of former St. Louis GM Walt Jocketty ending up with the Reds, given the that Reds CEO Bob Castellini was once a limited partner in St. Louis and he's known to admire the work Jocketty did with the Cardinals.

But it's not going to happen.

"Wayne Krivsky is our GM. Period," Castellini said Monday through a spokesman.

Krivsky has one year remaining on his contract. The Reds are 152-172 in his two years as GM.

Jocketty was dismissed after the season by the Cardinals.

- Fay

Phil in BG
10-08-2007, 04:43 PM
Maybe this goes in the Jocketty thread...I don't know.


Castellini: Krivsky's safe

There's been a lot of speculation nationally about the possibility of former St. Louis GM Walt Jocketty ending up with the Reds, given the that Reds CEO Bob Castellini was once a limited partner in St. Louis and he's known to admire the work Jocketty did with the Cardinals.

But it's not going to happen.

"Wayne Krivsky is our GM. Period," Castellini said Monday through a spokesman.

Krivsky has one year remaining on his contract. The Reds are 152-172 in his two years as GM.

Jocketty was dismissed after the season by the Cardinals.

- Fay


That doesn't mean Jocketty couldn't come in as president, however remote that may be.

westofyou
10-08-2007, 04:46 PM
The Reds are 152-172 in his two years as GM.

And the five years prior they were


WINS W L PCT
1 Reds 362 448 .447

It's long way to the top if you want to rock n roll.

Heath
10-08-2007, 04:46 PM
Hello, Atlas Van Lines? Wayne Krivsky here.

fearofpopvol1
10-08-2007, 04:55 PM
Assuming this sticks, I for one am glad. I'd like to give Krivsky at least 1 more year before making any final judgments.

WVRedsFan
10-08-2007, 04:57 PM
Maybe this goes in the Jocketty thread...I don't know.


Castellini: Krivsky's safe

There's been a lot of speculation nationally about the possibility of former St. Louis GM Walt Jocketty ending up with the Reds, given the that Reds CEO Bob Castellini was once a limited partner in St. Louis and he's known to admire the work Jocketty did with the Cardinals.

But it's not going to happen.

"Wayne Krivsky is our GM. Period," Castellini said Monday through a spokesman.

Krivsky has one year remaining on his contract. The Reds are 152-172 in his two years as GM.

Jocketty was dismissed after the season by the Cardinals.

- Fay

Not surprising at all.

RedsManRick
10-08-2007, 05:00 PM
And the five years prior they were


WINS W L PCT
1 Reds 362 448 .447

It's long way to the top if you want to rock n roll.

And Jocketty took a team that averaged 96 wins from 2000-2005 and managed to sink it below .500 the last two years. Better to crash the ship or fail to get it off the ground?

Reds
2001-2005: .447
2006-2007: .469

Cardinals
2001-2005: .593
2006-2007: .497

edabbs44
10-08-2007, 05:04 PM
And Jocketty took a team that averaged 96 wins from 2000-2005 and managed to sink it below .500 the last two years. Better to crash the ship or fail to get it off the ground?

2006: Crashed that ship right into a WS championship.

2007: Curious to see how they would have fared if Carpenter wasn't lost for the entire season

westofyou
10-08-2007, 05:07 PM
And Jocketty took a team that averaged 96 wins from 2000-2005 and managed to sink it below .500 the last two years. Better to crash the ship or fail to get it off the ground?

I have no idea where you get the idea I want Walt Jocketty as the Reds GM, I've already said pass numerous times.

In other news


Colorado Rockies owners Charlie and Dick Monfort took their share of heat from the fans on Opening Day when they announced two-year contract extensions for General Manager Dan ODowd and manager Clint Hurdle. The Rockies had enjoyed a winning season in ODowds first year on the job in 2000 but none since. Hurdle had compiled a 352-436 record since replacing Buddy Bell early in the 2002 season.

However, the Monforts look smart now, as the Rockies won 15 of their final 16 regular-season games, including beating San Diego in a tiebreaker, to reach the NL playoffs as the wild card team. The Rockies then swept Philadelphia in the National League Division Series for their first-ever post-season series win and will now face Arizona in the NLCS.

Charlie Monfort, the Rockies chief executive officer, said there was a reason for their decision to extend ODowd and Hurdle--stability. It reached farther than the manager and general manager, Monfort told the Rocky Mountain News. The farm system was good, the scouting was good, and we knew Clint could bring them together at the big-league level. This is gratifying not for ownership but to know that after the slings and arrows that everyone in our organization took maybe we did know what we were doing.

"You have to realize that when you get rid of one person in baseball you get rid of the organization. Dan ODowd is also (scouting director) Bill Schmidt and (VP of baseball operations) Bill Geivett and (player development director) Mark Gustafson. Consistency is what you need. You want people to feel they can do their job and not look over their shoulder after every loss. Consistency is what you need and weve had a system in place for eight years. The players understand who they are going to play for. They know Clint is in charge. They know Dan is in charge. Stability in any business is good.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6802

KronoRed
10-08-2007, 05:21 PM
Part of me hopes Jocketty takes another job so we don't hear all of next season "Fire Krivksy hire Jocketty!"

I don't think Jocketty as president would work, too many cooks in the kitchen and all that.

Falls City Beer
10-08-2007, 05:31 PM
The Reds aren't going to hire some young pup stats guru. Forget it; it's not going to happen. The best we can hope for is 1. Wayne gets a clue or 2. they hire some old school guy who is aggressive (Jocketty/Sabean).

Those of you waiting on the next Shapiro: find a windmill to tilt at.

Unassisted
10-08-2007, 05:39 PM
That doesn't mean Jocketty couldn't come in as presidentOr as a special advisor.

Chip R
10-08-2007, 05:44 PM
Or as a special advisor.


I remember back in the day before the Reds hired Tony Perez as their manager, JimBo brought in Davey Johnson, Jack McKeon and, I think Bobby Valentine in varying roles. Two out of three of them ended up eventually managing the Reds and had the last amount of success the Reds have had to this date.

Team Clark
10-08-2007, 05:50 PM
Maybe this goes in the Jocketty thread...I don't know.


Castellini: Krivsky's safe

There's been a lot of speculation nationally about the possibility of former St. Louis GM Walt Jocketty ending up with the Reds, given the that Reds CEO Bob Castellini was once a limited partner in St. Louis and he's known to admire the work Jocketty did with the Cardinals.

But it's not going to happen.

"Wayne Krivsky is our GM. Period," Castellini said Monday through a spokesman.

Krivsky has one year remaining on his contract. The Reds are 152-172 in his two years as GM.

Jocketty was dismissed after the season by the Cardinals.

- Fay

Does anyone else remember "Dan O'Brien is our GM! Period" like I do? :eek: Same sentence different name. Same person saying it.

Team Clark
10-08-2007, 05:51 PM
The Reds aren't going to hire some young pup stats guru. Forget it; it's not going to happen. The best we can hope for is 1. Wayne gets a clue or 2. they hire some old school guy who is aggressive (Jocketty/Sabean).

Those of you waiting on the next Shapiro: find a windmill to tilt at.

That is the absolute truth with the perfect analogy. :thumbup:

Redsland
10-08-2007, 05:51 PM
"Wayne Krivsky is our GM. Period," Castellini said Monday through a spokesman.
Bob Castellini, May 18, 2007: (http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070518/SPT05/705180338/1027)

"Right now, Jerry Narron is the one whose hide people are going after," said the CEO. "But I'm 100 percent behind him. And it's not just because I like Jerry. It's because he's a winner. There's never been one thought in my mind that we had a problem with the manager or general manager or coaching staff. I still don't feel that way, and I don't anticipate feeling that way.

"There isn't anybody more frustrated than I am. But I have 100 percent confidence in our manager and general manager. I feel much better about this team than I did at this time last year. Our results are putrid. But it's too soon to think this team is not what we thought it was a month ago. It's not time to be calling for radical surgery here."

Team Clark
10-08-2007, 05:52 PM
2006: Crashed that ship right into a WS championship.

2007: Curious to see how they would have fared if Carpenter wasn't lost for the entire season

You're right. I wonder what an extra 10 wins from Carpenter would have done for them? At least a Wild card?

Matt700wlw
10-08-2007, 05:52 PM
Kiss of death

:D

He didn't call him a "winner" though

RedsManRick
10-08-2007, 05:54 PM
Ah, the classic vote of confidence.

Chip R
10-08-2007, 05:59 PM
Difference is this is the off season. It's not like they are going to go on a long losing streak and Bob's going to give him the boot in mid-December.

paulrichjr
10-08-2007, 06:41 PM
I would be real real real disappointed in Cast if he made a move this soon to replace the GM. This is a long-term project...give him time.

Reds4Life
10-08-2007, 08:42 PM
Let the countdown begin, as others have said, the same was said for O'Brien. I doubt anything will be done in terms of a manager until the world series is over. After that, it's game on.

REDREAD
10-08-2007, 09:57 PM
A vote of confidence from the owner is about as useful as one of DanO's gobbly-gook press conference speeches.. means nothing.

jmcclain19
10-09-2007, 02:34 AM
Castellini is striking me as a blind optimist in the last few months. I want optimism, but I want realism too. How can men with so much money and so much business acumen completely lose their sense when it comes to running their toys.

The McClatchey's wouldn't have let a flagging paper go two years with down profits from a publisher not pulling his weight. Yet they seemed perfectly willing to let a decade pass with a laughing stock of a professional team. Carl Lindner was no business slouch, yet the Reds were a constant joke of a baseball team during his years. Castellini didn't make his money letting inept managers throw his money away. Yet the Reds spinning their wheels in the mud for two straight years get nothing but a big thumbs up from the boss. And the list goes on and on.

It boggles my mind that they think that the Cubs & Brewers will remain stagnant while the Reds - still at least 10 wins behind them both, look for "one more piece" - well, it is going to be another long slog next year again won't it.

Seems like everyone has forgotten the Cardinals won the Central with 100+ wins just three years ago. Those days will come again quite soon. The West was a laughing stock 3 years ago when San Diego won it with 82 wins. Now the NL is decidedly stacked in the West's favor. Those who think that the power pendulum won't swing back to the Central in a year or two will be mistaken. And the Reds will be left choking the dust of better run teams once again.

Ron Madden
10-09-2007, 03:14 AM
Castellini is striking me as a blind optimist in the last few months. I want optimism, but I want realism too. How can men with so much money and so much business acumen completely lose their sense when it comes to running their toys.

The McClatchey's wouldn't have let a flagging paper go two years with down profits from a publisher not pulling his weight. Yet they seemed perfectly willing to let a decade pass with a laughing stock of a professional team. Carl Lindner was no business slouch, yet the Reds were a constant joke of a baseball team during his years. Castellini didn't make his money letting inept managers throw his money away. Yet the Reds spinning their wheels in the mud for two straight years get nothing but a big thumbs up from the boss. And the list goes on and on.

It boggles my mind that they think that the Cubs & Brewers will remain stagnant while the Reds - still at least 10 wins behind them both, look for "one more piece" - well, it is going to be another long slog next year again won't it.

Seems like everyone has forgotten the Cardinals won the Central with 100+ wins just three years ago. Those days will come again quite soon. The West was a laughing stock 3 years ago when San Diego won it with 82 wins. Now the NL is decidedly stacked in the West's favor. Those who think that the power pendulum won't swing back to the Central in a year or two will be mistaken. And the Reds will be left choking the dust of better run teams once again.


I'll have to agree.

WVRedsFan
10-09-2007, 03:31 AM
Castellini is striking me as a blind optimist in the last few months. I want optimism, but I want realism too. How can men with so much money and so much business acumen completely lose their sense when it comes to running their toys.

The McClatchey's wouldn't have let a flagging paper go two years with down profits from a publisher not pulling his weight. Yet they seemed perfectly willing to let a decade pass with a laughing stock of a professional team. Carl Lindner was no business slouch, yet the Reds were a constant joke of a baseball team during his years. Castellini didn't make his money letting inept managers throw his money away. Yet the Reds spinning their wheels in the mud for two straight years get nothing but a big thumbs up from the boss. And the list goes on and on.

It boggles my mind that they think that the Cubs & Brewers will remain stagnant while the Reds - still at least 10 wins behind them both, look for "one more piece" - well, it is going to be another long slog next year again won't it.

Seems like everyone has forgotten the Cardinals won the Central with 100+ wins just three years ago. Those days will come again quite soon. The West was a laughing stock 3 years ago when San Diego won it with 82 wins. Now the NL is decidedly stacked in the West's favor. Those who think that the power pendulum won't swing back to the Central in a year or two will be mistaken. And the Reds will be left choking the dust of better run teams once again.

And on't forget the Pirates. They're going to hire a new group to build their team while we flounder on hoping Bray and Guardado come back to save the club. Just like Deno last year when we traded Kearns and Lopez for that wizard at shortstop and those two pitchers who shall remain unnamed.

The Card will rule again because they use good sense to construct a team. and the Cubs are buying it. The Brewers have a good base and the Pirates have new life since they've ridded themselves of what was holding them back. Castellini needs a dose of reality. But, he apparently doesn't do well with reality.

Woe unto us.

camisadelgolf
10-09-2007, 04:49 AM
The Cardinals are going to struggle for the next couple years because Jocketty has badly hurt the team (granted, he did a great job for a long time, and it's only a matter of time before the Cardinals recover because they have the budget to do so). Although the Cardinals won the World Series in 2006, it was easily one of the worst teams to ever make the playoffs.

The Cubs' ridiculous contracts are going to catch up to them sooner than later.

The Brewers have a foundation to build around and should be good for a while.

The Pirates are in worse shape than the Bengals were in the '90s, and the Astros might be worse than the Pirates soon unless they learn to acquire quality minor league players.

Has anyone taken the time to see in what kind of position the Reds were in 2005? To think the Reds had any hope for the future whatsoever was being optimistic. What is making Castellini optimistic? Because he thinks Krivsky will put together a winning team? Well, compare the organization that Krivsky inherited to the organization Krivsky has created, and you can go ahead and call me an optimist, too. In every sense of the word, Wayne Krivsky has improved the Reds organization, and it's a matter of no more than three years before you see the results on the field. The Reds have waited a very long time for a playoff team--and during that time, the organization was run into the ground. Krivsky has taken a baseball team that looked as bad as any other team in baseball and managed to turn it into something that is on the verge of blossoming into one of the best organizations in the game.

If you want objective stats, I can give you that. If you want comparisons to prior Reds teams and other Major League teams, I can give you that, as well. I can't say with 100% confidence that Wayne Krivsky is a "winner", but he knows how to do one thing better than anyone the Reds have ever had: he knows how to prepare an organization for the future.

RedEye
10-09-2007, 10:08 AM
And Jocketty took a team that averaged 96 wins from 2000-2005 and managed to sink it below .500 the last two years. Better to crash the ship or fail to get it off the ground?

Reds
2001-2005: .447
2006-2007: .469

Cardinals
2001-2005: .593
2006-2007: .497

Wait a minute... didn't Jocketty also captain the ship between 2000-2005? I think this is more a case of the crew getting old than anything else.

RedEye
10-09-2007, 10:11 AM
If you want objective stats, I can give you that. If you want comparisons to prior Reds teams and other Major League teams, I can give you that, as well. I can't say with 100% confidence that Wayne Krivsky is a "winner", but he knows how to do one thing better than anyone the Reds have ever had: he knows how to prepare an organization for the future.

A bold claim... how can you give objective stats for something that hasn't even occurred yet?

westofyou
10-09-2007, 10:51 AM
And on't forget the Pirates. They're going to hire a new group to build their team while we flounder on hoping Bray and Guardado come back to save the club.

Yeah, those Pirates... let's envy them... 14 years since they had a winning record and frankly to say they hired a new management group while the Reds did nothing ignores the fact that the Reds hired a new management group 20 months ago.

Woe onto us for having to stomach such a weak comparison.

Ltlabner
10-09-2007, 11:11 AM
And on't forget the Pirates. They're going to hire a new group to build their team while we flounder on hoping Bray and Guardado come back to save the club. Just like Deno last year when we traded Kearns and Lopez for that wizard at shortstop and those two pitchers who shall remain unnamed.

The Card will rule again because they use good sense to construct a team. and the Cubs are buying it. The Brewers have a good base and the Pirates have new life since they've ridded themselves of what was holding them back. Castellini needs a dose of reality. But, he apparently doesn't do well with reality.

Woe unto us.

The Card who are burdened with expensive contracts to ageing vets? The Cubs who just bought their way to 3-and-out? The same Brewers who complement their impressive base of offensive players with just slightly more than zero pitching?

And now the Pirates are magically fixed by getting new owners? While the drumbeat pronouncing the new ownership in Cincy as idoits drones on?

Sorry, but your pronouncment that Castellini doesn't do well with reality, like so many others, rings empty.

camisadelgolf
10-09-2007, 01:12 PM
A bold claim... how can you give objective stats for something that hasn't even occurred yet?

I can give objective stats about how he has improved the team since taking it over.

SteelSD
10-09-2007, 01:25 PM
I can give objective stats about how he has improved the team since taking it over.

Really?

2005 Pythag: 75-87 (O'Brien)

2006 Pythag: 76-86 (Krivsky)
2007 Pythag: 75-87 (Krivsky)

Any talk about "improvement" needs to focus on the future, because the past doesn't show it. Sans impact offseason moves, any projection of future improvement will rely almost entirely on the assumption of future positive MLB contributions from a group of prospects Krivsky didn't draft.

The Reds find themselves entering this offseason with two needs- pitching and defense. They're the same two problem areas Krivsky's been focused on during his tenure and has thus far been unable to adequately address.

RedsManRick
10-09-2007, 01:53 PM
Wait a minute... didn't Jocketty also captain the ship between 2000-2005? I think this is more a case of the crew getting old than anything else.

Yes. And he gets full credit for that stretch. But guys getting older, more injury prone, and less productive is something you can plan for. He didn't.

RedsManRick
10-09-2007, 01:57 PM
2006: Crashed that ship right into a WS championship.

Show me another 83 win World Series champ (or participant) and I'll start giving him props. That an 83 win team made the playoffs says a lot more about the NL Central than the quality of the 2006 Cardinals. He gets full credit for the great stretch of teams that averaged 95+ wins for half a decade.

But in my book the 2006 WS victory was a fluke of a crappy division and the crap-shoot of the playoffs, not something I'm laud a GM for.

BRM
10-09-2007, 02:02 PM
I'd take a "fluke" World Series victory.

remdog
10-09-2007, 02:20 PM
I can't say with 100% confidence that Wayne Krivsky is a "winner", but he knows how to do one thing better than anyone the Reds have ever had: he knows how to prepare an organization for the future.

Well, see, there was this guy named Bob Howsam....

Rem

edabbs44
10-09-2007, 02:30 PM
I can't say with 100% confidence that Wayne Krivsky is a "winner", but he knows how to do one thing better than anyone the Reds have ever had: he knows how to prepare an organization for the future.

How has Krivsky done that? Please don't use Phillips and Hamilton as examples. While Wayne gets credit for making those acquisitions, he might go 50 years before he even gets another opportunity like that. Former #1 DPs in the Rule 5 draft are almost like Haley's Comet, except the comet is more common. Same with teams dumping younger former top 5 prospects.

So Krivsky has had his moments, but I haven't seen anything to show that he "knows how to prepare an organization for the future". If his drafts pan out, then we can talk.

bucksfan2
10-09-2007, 02:48 PM
How has Krivsky done that? Please don't use Phillips and Hamilton as examples. While Wayne gets credit for making those acquisitions, he might go 50 years before he even gets another opportunity like that. Former #1 DPs in the Rule 5 draft are almost like Haley's Comet, except the comet is more common. Same with teams dumping younger former top 5 prospects.

So Krivsky has had his moments, but I haven't seen anything to show that he "knows how to prepare an organization for the future". If his drafts pan out, then we can talk.

I understand your dislike for WK but can you honestly tell me that this entire organization is worse off than when he took over? And why do you discount the Phillips and Hamilton acquisitions? Sure they don't happen much but do you discount the Twins acquisition of Santana? Picking up two once highly though of prospects for next to nothing doesn't happen much, BUT, Krivsky made it happen.

edabbs44
10-09-2007, 03:03 PM
I understand your dislike for WK but can you honestly tell me that this entire organization is worse off than when he took over? And why do you discount the Phillips and Hamilton acquisitions? Sure they don't happen much but do you discount the Twins acquisition of Santana? Picking up two once highly though of prospects for next to nothing doesn't happen much, BUT, Krivsky made it happen.

Of course, but the quote was that he knows how to prepare an organization for the future.

I don't think that anyone can dispute it when I say that the Rule 5 draft is not the way to prepare for the future. Same with trading for players about to be DFAed.

Can I say that the entire organization is worse off? I can't say that. Can I say that it is much better? Not really. The 2007 Reds were one game worse than the 2005 Reds (I believe) and I haven't seen Wayne really do much for the farm system yet. His two drafts have produced lackluster results so far, though long term results are yet TBD.

bucksfan2
10-09-2007, 03:38 PM
Of course, but the quote was that he knows how to prepare an organization for the future.

I don't think that anyone can dispute it when I say that the Rule 5 draft is not the way to prepare for the future. Same with trading for players about to be DFAed.

Can I say that the entire organization is worse off? I can't say that. Can I say that it is much better? Not really. The 2007 Reds were one game worse than the 2005 Reds (I believe) and I haven't seen Wayne really do much for the farm system yet. His two drafts have produced lackluster results so far, though long term results are yet TBD.

No you can't prepare for the future by using Rule V draft picks and DFA's as your primary method. But what I see is that WK was able to identify that talent and bring them to cincinnati. For roughly one low level prospect and <.25M the reds have two possible all stats in their starting lineup as well as their 8th inning guy. You have Cantu who will back up 1st, 2nd, and maybe 3rd who has driven in 100+ runs in a season. Keppinger will also come off the bench and has shown the ability to make contact and hit for a high average. Your bullpen was bad but WK was able to bring in some new arms as well as let others develop. He didn't rush any prospects to the majors rather he was on the other end of the specturm almost painfully slow in promoting his prospects.

The biggest thing I think WK has achieved is that he hasn't given out any bad bad contracts while he has kept his core minor league prospects. The Stanton and Cormier contracts along with the Freel and Coffey extentions were bad but they aren't going to cost this team.

RedsManRick
10-09-2007, 03:53 PM
I don't think that anyone can dispute it when I say that the Rule 5 draft is not the way to prepare for the future.

Johan Santana disagrees....

You're right. In and of itself, the Rule 5 draft is not the way to prepare for the future. It's one way among many to prepare. It's about acquiring talent in any way you can. If there's one thing you can say about WK, it's that he's open to anyway to add talent to the organization.

- He's acquired underutilized talent for cheap: Phillips, Keppinger
- He's used waivers: Coutlangus
- He's signed or traded for veterans and flipped them for prospects: Ward -> Lohse -> Maloney, Key & Moran -> Conine -> Castro & Henry
- He's held on to guys and used their compensatory draft picks: Aurilia -> Frazier, Schoenweiss -> Lotzkar
- And of course, he's participated in the ammy draft and actually signed most of the guys he's drafted.
- He's held on to the highest potential guys in house and we're actually seeing them develop for a change: Homer, Votto, Bruce, Cueto

Lastly, when it comes to the future, there's one thing he's done that gets completely overlooked. He doesn't screw the team over by giving large, long contracts to mediocre players. Yes, Stanton's deal makes me barf too. But it's a lot more palatable than Eric Milton, Danny Graves, or Sean Casey.

While the Reds have yet to translate Krivsky's work in to wins, which is a fair criticsm, anybody who fails to recognize that the organization is in a much stronger position for the future today than in 2005 is ignoring a whole bunch of stuff.

Remember 1999 when we had a bunch of good young, cheap talent like Reese, Williamson, and Casey, supplemented it with a few vets making good money (Larkin, Vaughn), and we had Dunn and Kearns on the horizon? Then we traded for Junior and started getting excited with guys like Basham, Howington, Gruler, etc. over the next few years.

Well, JB screwed it up. We failed to develop anybody else besides Dunn, we botched a draft or three, and we committed our payroll to a bunch of guys who lacked the ceiling to make us a winner.

We're close to that 1999 position again, sans the winning record, insofaras a solid talent base and efficient payroll distribution. Yes, we need more pitching. Yes, we need to lock up our key offensive weapon veteran for some production stability. But we're back to a place where there's not a big mess to clean up first. The talent pipeline looks pretty strong, the financial situation isn't a significant problem, and there's a nice core of cheap production to build on.

Yes, for Krivsky to be a success, we have to actually take those next steps. We have to become a winner over the next 24 months. However, to suggest that all he's done is spin his wheels because the record hasn't changed strikes me as disingenuous.

Matt700wlw
10-09-2007, 03:56 PM
I'd take a "fluke" World Series victory.

I'd take a "fluke" winning season at this point...

camisadelgolf
10-10-2007, 07:24 AM
How has Krivsky done that? Please don't use Phillips and Hamilton as examples. While Wayne gets credit for making those acquisitions, he might go 50 years before he even gets another opportunity like that. Former #1 DPs in the Rule 5 draft are almost like Haley's Comet, except the comet is more common. Same with teams dumping younger former top 5 prospects.

So Krivsky has had his moments, but I haven't seen anything to show that he "knows how to prepare an organization for the future". If his drafts pan out, then we can talk.

First of all, yeah, what RedsManRick said. Second of all, so far, Krivsky's drafts are panning out (Dan Dorn, Josh Roenicke, Chris Valaika, Sean Watson, Derrik Lutz, Chris Heisey, Logan Parker, Justin Turner, Drew Stubbs, Travis Webb, Jordan Smith, Brandon Waring, Todd Frazier, Scott Carroll, Neftali Soto, Kyle Lotzkar, etc.). Third of all, part of building a successful organization is knowing what you have in your system and knowing when to keep it or lose it. Unless you think triples are essential to building a winning club, he has shown he can do that. Here are the stats of the players he's let go compared to the players he's acquired (sorry, but I'm including Brandon Phillips and Josh Hamilton; I even included Jared Burton):


PLAYERS DEPARTED PLAYERS ARRIVED
G 1274 G 1650
AB 3981 AB 4785
R 537 R 647
H 1033 H 1306
2B 225 2B 261
3B 20 3B 19
HR 104 HR 167
RBI 466 RBI 608
SB 64 SB 94
CS 27 CS 30
BB 386 BB 436
SO 888 SO 834
BA .259 BA .273
OBP .325 OBP .334
SLG .404 SLG .440

W 36 W 65
L 41 L 79
G 442 G 629
GS 59 GS 119
CG 0 CG 6
SHO 0 SHO 2
GF 89 GF 129
SV 4 SV 15
IP 744.3 IP 1215.3
H 798 H 1347
R 450 R 676
ER 417 ER 629
HR 83 HR 163
BB 291 BB 407
SO 472 SO 885
HBP 33 HBP 55
WP 27 WP 41
ERA 5.04 ERA 4.66
WHIP 1.46 WHIP 1.44

Going into 2006, the Reds' organizational talent was consistently ranked in the bottom third (Baseball America had them ranked as the worst). Heading into 2008, the Reds are going to be consistently ranked in the top third. That's quite an improvement to make within just two years, and it's not all thanks to the players Krivsky has inherited (of which, very few are still around). Not only are there the drafted players I mentioned above, he has also acquired: Tzu-Kai Chiu, Alex Smit, Ben Jukich, Daryl Thompson, Robert Manuel, Shaun Cumberland, Sean Henry, Jose Castro, Matt Maloney, Marcus McBeth, Jerry Gil, Pedro Lopez, Buck Coats, etc.

On the Minor League level, I think it's obvious that Wayne Krivsky has improved the Reds. On the Major League level, well, we may never agree. I think David Ross is better than Jason LaRue. Scott Hatteberg is better than Sean Casey. Brandon Phillips is better than Rich Aurilia. Alex Gonzalez is equal to or better than Felipe Lopez. Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn, and Ken Griffey are improved from 2005. Josh Hamilton is better than Austin Kearns. Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Lohse, Bobby Livingston, Elizardo Ramirez, and Matt Belisle are better starting options than Brandon Claussen, Eric Milton, Luke Hudson, Dave Williams, and Ramon Ortiz.

The problem is that when Wayne Krivsky got here, he had nearly nothing to work with. This year, I wouldn't have expected anything better than a .500 team (unless major improvements were made mid-season). When you have half your budget locked up in three players (Dunn, Griffey, Milton), it's very difficult to give yourself the flexibility you need to make a great team. Milton's contract is ending, Griffey has one more year, and Dunn will either be signed to an extension or traded for players with a lot of value. When 2009 rolls around, the team will finally be in a position to compete. You can't erase nearly a decade of mistakes in just two years.

If you want to compare the 2005 bullpen (4.75 ERA) to the 2007 bullpen (5.10 ERA), there isn't much difference relative to the rest of MLB, but the 2007 peripheral numbers look better. I've said all along that the reason the bullpen looked so bad was because Jerry Narron didn't know how to use it. After Narron was fired, the bullpen's ERA went up, but the winning percentage nearly doubled--I attribute that to Mackanin actually having some idea of how to use a bullpen. Wayne Krivsky wasn't the guy who hired Jerry Narron, but he was the guy who fired him. My only complaint is that Narron wasn't fired sooner.

Next year, the team will look nearly the same, and the winning percentage will be only a slight improvement. Like I said, you can't erase nearly a decade of mistakes in just a couple years. Feel free not to give him credit for the Reds prospects who were already here when he arrived, but please don't unfairly put the faults from Jim Bowden and Dan O'Brien onto Krivsky either. He hasn't been perfect, but the good he has done has far out-weighed the bad, and as long as he continues to improve the team, it will be a playoff contender within no more than three years.

Team Clark
10-10-2007, 10:37 AM
First of all, yeah, what RedsManRick said. Second of all, so far, Krivsky's drafts are panning out (Dan Dorn, Josh Roenicke, Chris Valaika, Sean Watson, Derrik Lutz, Chris Heisey, Logan Parker, Justin Turner, Drew Stubbs, Travis Webb, Jordan Smith, Brandon Waring, Todd Frazier, Scott Carroll, Neftali Soto, Kyle Lotzkar, etc.). Third of all, part of building a successful organization is knowing what you have in your system and knowing when to keep it or lose it. Unless you think triples are essential to building a winning club, he has shown he can do that. Here are the stats of the players he's let go compared to the players he's acquired (sorry, but I'm including Brandon Phillips and Josh Hamilton; I even included Jared Burton):


PLAYERS DEPARTED PLAYERS ARRIVED
G 1274 G 1650
AB 3981 AB 4785
R 537 R 647
H 1033 H 1306
2B 225 2B 261
3B 20 3B 19
HR 104 HR 167
RBI 466 RBI 608
SB 64 SB 94
CS 27 CS 30
BB 386 BB 436
SO 888 SO 834
BA .259 BA .273
OBP .325 OBP .334
SLG .404 SLG .440

W 36 W 65
L 41 L 79
G 442 G 629
GS 59 GS 119
CG 0 CG 6
SHO 0 SHO 2
GF 89 GF 129
SV 4 SV 15
IP 744.3 IP 1215.3
H 798 H 1347
R 450 R 676
ER 417 ER 629
HR 83 HR 163
BB 291 BB 407
SO 472 SO 885
HBP 33 HBP 55
WP 27 WP 41
ERA 5.04 ERA 4.66
WHIP 1.46 WHIP 1.44

Going into 2006, the Reds' organizational talent was consistently ranked in the bottom third (Baseball America had them ranked as the worst). Heading into 2008, the Reds are going to be consistently ranked in the top third. That's quite an improvement to make within just two years, and it's not all thanks to the players Krivsky has inherited (of which, very few are still around). Not only are there the drafted players I mentioned above, he has also acquired: Tzu-Kai Chiu, Alex Smit, Ben Jukich, Daryl Thompson, Robert Manuel, Shaun Cumberland, Sean Henry, Jose Castro, Matt Maloney, Marcus McBeth, Jerry Gil, Pedro Lopez, Buck Coats, etc.

On the Minor League level, I think it's obvious that Wayne Krivsky has improved the Reds. On the Major League level, well, we may never agree. I think David Ross is better than Jason LaRue. Scott Hatteberg is better than Sean Casey. Brandon Phillips is better than Rich Aurilia. Alex Gonzalez is equal to or better than Felipe Lopez. Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn, and Ken Griffey are improved from 2005. Josh Hamilton is better than Austin Kearns. Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Lohse, Bobby Livingston, Elizardo Ramirez, and Matt Belisle are better starting options than Brandon Claussen, Eric Milton, Luke Hudson, Dave Williams, and Ramon Ortiz.

The problem is that when Wayne Krivsky got here, he had nearly nothing to work with. This year, I wouldn't have expected anything better than a .500 team (unless major improvements were made mid-season). When you have half your budget locked up in three players (Dunn, Griffey, Milton), it's very difficult to give yourself the flexibility you need to make a great team. Milton's contract is ending, Griffey has one more year, and Dunn will either be signed to an extension or traded for players with a lot of value. When 2009 rolls around, the team will finally be in a position to compete. You can't erase nearly a decade of mistakes in just two years.

If you want to compare the 2005 bullpen (4.75 ERA) to the 2007 bullpen (5.10 ERA), there isn't much difference relative to the rest of MLB, but the 2007 peripheral numbers look better. I've said all along that the reason the bullpen looked so bad was because Jerry Narron didn't know how to use it. After Narron was fired, the bullpen's ERA went up, but the winning percentage nearly doubled--I attribute that to Mackanin actually having some idea of how to use a bullpen. Wayne Krivsky wasn't the guy who hired Jerry Narron, but he was the guy who fired him. My only complaint is that Narron wasn't fired sooner.

Next year, the team will look nearly the same, and the winning percentage will be only a slight improvement. Like I said, you can't erase nearly a decade of mistakes in just a couple years. Feel free not to give him credit for the Reds prospects who were already here when he arrived, but please don't unfairly put the faults from Jim Bowden and Dan O'Brien onto Krivsky either. He hasn't been perfect, but the good he has done has far out-weighed the bad, and as long as he continues to improve the team, it will be a playoff contender within no more than three years.

That is a phenomenal post. :clap:

M2
10-10-2007, 11:24 AM
camisa, while I think you give proper credit to Krivsky for collecting minor leaguer talents via methods other than the draft, I wouldn't be too quck to pronounce his drafts as anything eyepopping. The 2006 class didn't crash, but it also didn't set the world on fire. I like that Roenicke has flourished.

As for the comparison of what's come in and what's gone out, Krivsky's acquired three impact players - Arroyo, Phillips and Hamilton. He deserves a ton of credit for finding those three guys.

Yet outside of Arroyo, the pitchers have thrown 764 IP with a 5.21 ERA. Outside of Phillips and Hatteberg, the bats look like this:

AB - 2782
R - 363
H - 727
2B - 162
3B - 11
HR - 97
RBI - 341
SB - 35
CS - 18
BB - 245
SO - 561
BA - .261
OB - .321
SLG - .432

What it rolls up to is that after his first two months on the job, Krivsky has found Josh Hamilton and little else. That's one player in 18 months. The guy had a great start, but he's stagnated since then, particularly on the pitching front. I keep hoping for the guy who came in with guns blazing to return because the guy who's been running the show that last 18 months hasn't been up to the task.

edabbs44
10-10-2007, 11:47 AM
camisa, while I think you give proper credit to Krivsky for collecting minor leaguer talents via methods other than the draft, I wouldn't be too quck to pronounce his drafts as anything eyepopping. The 2006 class didn't crash, but it also didn't set the world on fire. I like that Roenicke has flourished.

As for the comparison of what's come in and what's gone out, Krivsky's acquired three impact players - Arroyo, Phillips and Hamilton. He deserves a ton of credit for finding those three guys.

Yet outside of Arroyo, the pitchers have thrown 764 IP with a 5.21 ERA. Outside of Phillips and Hatteberg, the bats look like this:

AB - 2782
R - 363
H - 727
2B - 162
3B - 11
HR - 97
RBI - 341
SB - 35
CS - 18
BB - 245
SO - 561
BA - .261
OB - .321
SLG - .432

What it rolls up to is that after his first two months on the job, Krivsky has found Josh Hamilton and little else. That's one player in 18 months. The guy had a great start, but he's stagnated since then, particularly on the pitching front. I keep hoping for the guy who came in with guns blazing to return because the guy who's been running the show that last 18 months hasn't been up to the task.

Nice post. And while Hamilton appears to be a winner, he still has a ways to go. At this time last year David Ross was the feather in Krivsky's cap.

paulrichjr
10-10-2007, 11:52 AM
camisa, while I think you give proper credit to Krivsky for collecting minor leaguer talents via methods other than the draft, I wouldn't be too quck to pronounce his drafts as anything eyepopping. The 2006 class didn't crash, but it also didn't set the world on fire. I like that Roenicke has flourished.

As for the comparison of what's come in and what's gone out, Krivsky's acquired three impact players - Arroyo, Phillips and Hamilton. He deserves a ton of credit for finding those three guys.

Yet outside of Arroyo, the pitchers have thrown 764 IP with a 5.21 ERA. Outside of Phillips and Hatteberg, the bats look like this:

AB - 2782
R - 363
H - 727
2B - 162
3B - 11
HR - 97
RBI - 341
SB - 35
CS - 18
BB - 245
SO - 561
BA - .261
OB - .321
SLG - .432

What it rolls up to is that after his first two months on the job, Krivsky has found Josh Hamilton and little else. That's one player in 18 months. The guy had a great start, but he's stagnated since then, particularly on the pitching front. I keep hoping for the guy who came in with guns blazing to return because the guy who's been running the show that last 18 months hasn't been up to the task.



Jared Burton is no slouch in my opinion. I also think Cantu could be something to watch for next year....

Cedric
10-10-2007, 04:28 PM
Love this news. I like the direction of this franchise. Krivsky had to turn around a Hindenburg type disaster of a franchise. He's gonna do it, IMO.

Cedric
10-10-2007, 04:32 PM
camisa, while I think you give proper credit to Krivsky for collecting minor leaguer talents via methods other than the draft, I wouldn't be too quck to pronounce his drafts as anything eyepopping. The 2006 class didn't crash, but it also didn't set the world on fire. I like that Roenicke has flourished.

As for the comparison of what's come in and what's gone out, Krivsky's acquired three impact players - Arroyo, Phillips and Hamilton. He deserves a ton of credit for finding those three guys.

Yet outside of Arroyo, the pitchers have thrown 764 IP with a 5.21 ERA. Outside of Phillips and Hatteberg, the bats look like this:

AB - 2782
R - 363
H - 727
2B - 162
3B - 11
HR - 97
RBI - 341
SB - 35
CS - 18
BB - 245
SO - 561
BA - .261
OB - .321
SLG - .432

What it rolls up to is that after his first two months on the job, Krivsky has found Josh Hamilton and little else. That's one player in 18 months. The guy had a great start, but he's stagnated since then, particularly on the pitching front. I keep hoping for the guy who came in with guns blazing to return because the guy who's been running the show that last 18 months hasn't been up to the task.

He has to have time to develop that talent. That is his way. Right now he is just trying band aids to fix the grand canyon(pitching) until the pitching develops.

There aren't many cheap decent band aids in the pitching market right now. The pitching in our minor league systems has progressed by every measure possible under Krivsky. IMO he deserves to see if Cueto, Bailey, Burton, Maloney, and guys like Roehnike work out.