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View Full Version : Are we similar to the Rockies and DBacks?



icehole3
10-08-2007, 05:46 PM
I look at both lineups, seems like theyre using their minor league studs instead of trading those guys. Maybe Im off base. Just curious as to what the experts on this board think. Are we on the same blue prints as those two ballclubs.

RedsManRick
10-08-2007, 05:51 PM
I look at both lineups, seems like theyre using their minor league studs instead of trading those guys. Maybe Im off base. Just curious as to what the experts on this board think. Are we on the same blue prints as those two ballclubs.

Until we develop pitchers that make significant contributions, no. Francis & Webb, both aces drafted and developed by those organizations and whose value they are getting quite cheaply.

Jose Valverde, Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Brian Fuentes, Manny Corpas. These guys didn't cost an arm and a leg. Some were developed. Some were acquired at a fairly low cost. Either way, the Reds need to channel a lot more of that and a lot less of the Mike Stantons and Rheal Cormiers of the world.

Falls City Beer
10-08-2007, 05:55 PM
No. I think that's what the FO tries to sell us year after year: that the Reds can be that team to scrap its way to the top. But the Reds are nowhere near those clubs.

Falls City Beer
10-08-2007, 05:57 PM
Until we develop pitchers that make significant contributions, no. Francis & Webb, both aces drafted and developed by those organizations and whose value they are getting quite cheaply.

Jose Valverde, Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Brian Fuentes, Manny Corpas. These guys didn't cost an arm and a leg. Some were developed. Some were acquired at a fairly low cost. Either way, the Reds need to channel a lot more of that and a lot less of the Mike Stantons and Rheal Cormiers of the world.

Doug Davis didn't hurt either. My first target of last offseason. Yet that deal goes almost totally unrecognized.

VR
10-08-2007, 06:22 PM
Doug Davis didn't hurt either. My first target of last offseason. Yet that deal goes almost totally unrecognized.


The complete lack of starters on the market makes it tough for the Reds to get a starter of any quality for next year. Davis had some success in the past...but his peripherals the few years say he was very lucky...and still mediocre. But, that kind of an aquisition may be all that is out there.

I'd rather see them mining for some young, quality relievers.

RedsManRick
10-08-2007, 06:29 PM
Doug Davis didn't hurt either. My first target of last offseason. Yet that deal goes almost totally unrecognized.

Davis is a #3/#4 type guy. Sure, I'd love to have him in my rotation over Tom Shearn, but not who I'd cite as an example of why the D'Backs are in the playoffs and we're not. Put him in GABP in front of our defense and see how that 1.588 WHIP translate in to an ERA.

I'm more interested in getting solid production from that $300K draftee or unsigned FA than trading some existing assets for a mediocre starter who isn't cheap anymore.

jojo
10-08-2007, 06:36 PM
Doug Davis didn't hurt either. My first target of last offseason. Yet that deal goes almost totally unrecognized.

Dumping Jason Jennings' sorry arse went a long way too... :cool:

paulrichjr
10-08-2007, 06:37 PM
It seems to me that most all teams are going this way except maybe the Cubs and Mets. There is a tremendous premium placed on players on the farm. Almost no trades of significance were made at the trade deadline (Are the Mets and Brewers thinking that they messed up?) because no one wanted to trade away their future.

Teams have money but instead of going the free agency route they are locking up their players (Harang, Arroyo) before they hit the market. This has caused even fewer premium players to get to free agency which makes it that much more important to lock up your guys.

Say what you want about Bud Selig and revenue sharing but the National League is the most balanced it has ever been in my opinion. Literally any team can add a couple of players from the farm and a couple from free agency and get to the playoffs.

We are looking at a future of Joey Votto (1B), EdE (3rd), Bruce(RF), Cueto (P) and Bailey (P) all coming up soon or already contributing (from our farm) and my bet making us contenders in 2 years.

icehole3
10-08-2007, 06:45 PM
Team salaries that are similar or lower than the Reds

18. Minnesota Twins $ 71,439,500
19. Milwaukee Brewers $ 70,986,500
20. Cincinnati Reds $ 68,904,980
21. Texas Rangers $ 68,318,675
22. Kansas City Royals $ 67,116,500
23. Cleveland Indians $ 61,673,267
24. San Diego Padres $ 58,110,567
25. Colorado Rockies $ 54,424,000
26. Arizona Diamondbacks $ 52,067,546
27. Pittsburgh Pirates $ 38,537,833
28. Washington Nationals $ 37,347,500
29. Florida Marlins $ 30,507,000
30. Tampa Bay Devil Rays $ 24,123,500

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/salaries

Falls City Beer
10-08-2007, 06:48 PM
Davis is a #3/#4 type guy. Sure, I'd love to have him in my rotation over Tom Shearn, but not who I'd cite as an example of why the D'Backs are in the playoffs and we're not. Put him in GABP in front of our defense and see how that 1.588 WHIP translate in to an ERA.

I'm more interested in getting solid production from that $300K draftee or unsigned FA than trading some existing assets for a mediocre starter who isn't cheap anymore.

You're switching terms. I said Davis helped the DBacks; which he did--200 innings of 4.25 ball is exceptionally rare, good defense or not ( Phoenix's ballpark is pretty small, not unlike GAB).

Whether he would have helped the Reds make the playoffs, I don't know. But to suggest that he isn't a HUGE reason why the DBacks are where they are is just silly--it's seeing what you wish to see in the equation.

We all want great arms that cost nothing, but they are even scarcer than the Doug Davises of the world (at least in the rotation).

jojo
10-08-2007, 06:52 PM
The Doug Davis trade was a great one...

TOBTTReds
10-08-2007, 07:06 PM
The Doug Davis trade was a great one...

It was for the DBacks...but like someone else mentioned, I oppose the idea of Doug Davis on the Reds. The DBacks have a pretty good D. Their OF'ers and SS are superior to ours defensively. His massive whip would only be larger at GABP, and with our defense. Though that is not Davis' fault, it is just how it would happen I believe.

fearofpopvol1
10-08-2007, 07:12 PM
No. What the teams have that the Reds don't is balance. Arizona is more balanced with pitching than offense and Colorado has more balance with offense, but both teams have some good pitching and very good bullpens. The Reds do not have a good bullpen.

Which is why I think the Reds should focus their pitching efforts on the bullpen more than starting pitching. It's clear the market for free agent pitching is overpriced and overvalued, but the reliever market (excluding closers) is not (yet). I'd rather grab 2-3 great relievers than 1 okay starter, but that's just me.

paulrichjr
10-08-2007, 11:40 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3054454&name=gammons_peter

Lessons learned this postseasonposted: Monday, October 8, 2007 | Print Entry

You can stop at the Grand Canyon, or maybe Zion on the off-day drive. And while you're out there on the run from Phoenix to Denver, you can think about where the Texas Rangers might be today had Tom Hicks listened to former Rangers GM Doug Melvin instead of talking heads. Or how the Orioles might actually be relevant if Peter Angelos listened to anyone. Or what the Houston Astros might be with rational ownership.

It was Melvin, now the Brewers' GM, who made the point last month that when the Yankees and Red Sox decided to go with young players in the heat of the pennant race that the free agent market might be devalued, and that Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein had built organizations with vast wingspans. But this offseason is about far more than Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. It is about watching the Indians' organization, for instance, rise like the Trump Towers.

And now, it's about watching the Diamondbacks and the Rockies and some of the best young players in the game in this, the Josh Byrnes October, since the current Arizona GM has had a prominent hand in the building of the Indians, Rockies and Red Sox as well as his own team. The Diamondbacks' best young players -- Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Justin Upton, et al -- are really at the point the Rockies' young rocks were two years ago, when Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, Jeff Francis and Garrett Atkins were blossoming without spotlight. That is, all except Troy Tulowitzki, a fellow rookie with his 24 homers and 99 RBIs who is gaining consideration as the best defensive shortstop in the game; Tulowitzki led all major league shortstops in total chances (by 114), double plays and fielding percentage, and an official of one team that closely studies defensive statistics says "the difference between Tulowitzki and the second-place defensive shortstop is greater than the difference between No. 2 and No. 9."

There are lessons that this October should teach us.

First, patience. "When we went through some of our signing fiascos and knew what we had to do, our ownership supported us all the way," says Colorado GM Dan O'Dowd. "It wasn't always easy. Things didn't happen overnight." Even this spring, there were calls for the heads of O'Dowd and Clint Hurdle, but ownership never wavered.

The same situation has existed in Cleveland, where team president Paul Dolan handed the GM reigns to Mark Shapiro, asked him to raze the payroll and rebuild. In Arizona, Byrnes has had the support to let some veterans go and gradually work in the young players.

It hasn't always been true with the Yankees and Red Sox, but Cashman has ascended to an authoritarian role when it comes to signing high-priced amateur talent, and Epstein has apparently won his wars in the same area. Since New Englanders obsess about the Yankees, Epstein had better be allowed to ignore the commissioner's office attempts to artificially rig draft and amateur signing prices, because Cashman's Yankees will spend whatever it takes. And the new ballpark (and the year's exemption from the luxury tax) will add to the Yankees' vault; one man has secured first-row boxes behind home plate in the new park at $2,500 a seat, which, with four seats, means his regular-season total will be $810,000 a year, until the prices go up.

Pittsburgh will have that patience and clarity of direction. When CEO Frank Coonnelly was in the commissioner's office, he was Bud Selig's hawk, but he is highly respected by the young, bright minds across the sport and he will give Neal Huntington every chance to succeed as GM. Yes, it's been since Barry Bonds was a Pirate that they were competitive, but this is an organization that will have the opportunity to sign draft choices and international players and develop them. Baltimore? There are pools on when Angelos will turn on Andy MacPhail, as he did on Pat Gillick and everyone else. Drayton McLane is too erratic, too hands-on and too devoted to the Selig signing laws to succeed in Houston. St. Louis looks like a mess with any new GM caught in-between Internet guru Jeff Luhnow, the likely return of Tony La Russa and the need to succeed, as well as acceding to Scott Rolen's desire to be divorced from La Russa.

Second, scouting and development are vital. Rockies scouting directorBill Schmidt is one of the most underappreciated rocks in the business, and the D-backs are still reaping the benefits of what Mike Rizzo accomplished before moving on to Washington. The Indians, Red Sox and Yankees all have fluid ties between ownership, general managers, scouting directors and scouts.

Think the Padres might like Stephen Drew? Kevin Towers was going to take him, but ownership bowed to the commissioner's office, forcing him to select Matt Bush,who has no fixed team address. It sure was great that the Pirates passed B.J. Upton for Bryan Bullington. Houston became an embarrassment this year by refusing to sign any high picks above the price-fixing slots.

Third, if you want to build from within, you have to have the right manager. Bob Melvin and Hurdle haven't received their dues for bringing along young players and standing behind them. Hurdle has suffered through some frustrating seasons to get here, but never backed off the kids, while Melvin has broken in close to 10 young players the last couple of years. Hurdle has gone with Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales and Manny Corpas in a pennant race, and Melvin has nurtured Drew, Upton, Micah Owings, Young, et al.

Eric Wedge has been a constant, solid, development manager. Terry Francona brought along kids from Pedroia to Clay Buchholz. Look at the Yankees and see Torre's patience -- where would they be without Melky Cabrera in center, Robinson Cano at second, Chamberlain and Hughes? Oh yes. While developing those kids and changing the future of the franchise, Torre is the only manager to be in the postseason in 2006 and 2007.

Fourth, if you want to play young players, you'd better have the right veteran players to support them. Look at what happened with the Dodgers down the stretch. Hmmm. Luis Gonzalez raised a ruckus in Arizona when Carlos Quentin arrived, and his refusal to accept that times they are a-changin' ran him out of that franchise and into a similar mess in L.A. The Diamondbacks' veterans like Tony Clark, Eric Byrnes, Orlando Hudson and Livan Hernandez have been support nets for all the young teammates, as Trot Nixon, Casey Blake and Paul Byrd have done in Cleveland. Monday night, Johnny Damon acknowledged "our season started to turn when Melky got in there every day."

To get here is a long process. It requires Curt Schilling admitting he reported to spring training out of shape, working and accepting John Farrell's advice. It requires Asdrubal Cabrera and Franklin Gutierrez stepping in for the Indians midway through August, and Wedge being willing to send Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers back to Triple-A Buffalo.

It requires the time to handle all the ups and downs those remarkable young players in Arizona and Colorado have endured to get here, and now they are about to give us what promises to be a remarkably entertaining NLCS. These teams have paid a lot more than free agent money, and the price of competence, patience, diligence and detail are being rewarded.

Kc61
10-09-2007, 02:00 AM
Not to raise a sore subject -- but is signing Adam Dunn long term for $15 million per year consistent with the Arizona and Colorado models?

Would the Arizona and Colorado programs allowed for around $25 million devoted to Dunn and Griffey next year?

Dunn had a truly fine year and has become a very productive outfielder. But do the Reds need high priced sluggers to become a good team?

Let's put aside the attachment we have to exisiting Reds players. Are the Reds really focusing on the things they need to win?

jmcclain19
10-09-2007, 02:24 AM
Colorado has Helton at 20 mil and the Dbacks have Randy Johnson at essentially 13 mil the next two seasons.

"The Arizona or Colorado" model certainly isn't filled with high salaries. It's getting production out of the slots that are earmarked for $300k.

Folks in this thread seems caught on Doug Davis - but that seems to forget that the Dbacks also got 200IP of league average pitching from Livan Hernandez and 150 from a slightly above average Micah Owings - and their 5th starter for most of the year - Edgar Gonzalez, outperformed the Reds comparable 3rd/4th starter - Matt Belisle.

The Rockies got 658 from their top 4 - Francis, Cook, Fogg & Hirsch, and are ready with Ubaldo Jiminez & Franklin Morales next year with Josh Fogg remembers he's Josh Fogg. Those two are fine as your fifth starter - and to show the Reds comparables - the Reds will likely go into next year with their two young stud arms as the 3 & 4 starters, not fighting for the 5th.

And something the Dbacks & Rox have done that the Reds certainly can't seem to do - build a killer bullpen from within their own system and pickups off the scrap heap.

Those are the types of differences between 90 wins & 75. Gaps that look unlikely to be closed anytime soon.

puca
10-09-2007, 11:03 AM
Not to raise a sore subject -- but is signing Adam Dunn long term for $15 million per year consistent with the Arizona and Colorado models?

Would the Arizona and Colorado programs allowed for around $25 million devoted to Dunn and Griffey next year?

Dunn had a truly fine year and has become a very productive outfielder. But do the Reds need high priced sluggers to become a good team?

Let's put aside the attachment we have to exisiting Reds players. Are the Reds really focusing on the things they need to win?

A GM cannot afford to play it a year at a time. What seems best for 2008 could cripple a team in 2009 and beyond.

Seems to me that Colorado signed Helton long term while still paying a lot of money for Larry Walker. I'm guessing at the time the Rockies were paying a pretty heathy chunk of money to that pair. Good thing they understood that Helton would be valuable long after Walker was gone.

Sea Ray
10-09-2007, 03:47 PM
I recall Arizona coming to town this summer and I think our Reds matched up very nicely with them. If I recall, we swept them fairly easily. Things fell into place for Arizona. It is a fluke when a team gives up more runs than it scores, yet they have the best record in the league. Has that ever happened before?

jojo
10-09-2007, 04:54 PM
I recall Arizona coming to town this summer and I think our Reds matched up very nicely with them. If I recall, we swept them fairly easily. Things fell into place for Arizona. It is a fluke when a team gives up more runs than it scores, yet they have the best record in the league. Has that ever happened before?

I don't know but Seattle was 14 games over .500 despite being outscored by 19 runs on the season.