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mth123
10-13-2007, 12:49 PM
Frequently we've had threads about the top 10, top 40, top 20 pre-season, mid-season, off-season etc. Much of the discussion ends up being a debate of relievers versus other players, low minors players with a limited track record versus higher level players and stats versus tools. To try and limit the side issues and to help focus the discussion on the players themselves, I've created my list going into the winter by separating the players into four categories: Starting Pitchers, Relievers, Position Players and Below A Ball level players. I've rated the top dozen of each. No real reason for choosing a dozen but here they are:




Rank Starters Relief Pos Players Below A
1 Bailey Roenicke Bruce Frazier
2 Cueto McBeth Votto Lotzcar
3 Maloney Viola Rosales Waring
4 Fisher Pelland Dorn Soto
5 Jukich Salmon Griffin Chiu
6 Smit Guevara Francisco Cozart
7 Wood Ruzic Valaika E. Del Rosario
8 Lecure Rojas Stubbs Mesoraco
9 Thompson Geronimo Dickerson K. Jones
10 Ondrusek Asadoorian Perez McKennon
11 Avery Lutz Tatum Ef. Rodriguez
12 Gonzalez Medina Coats Menchaca

dougdirt
10-13-2007, 01:37 PM
Couple of questions I have that I would be interested in hearing a reasoning for:

Mesoraco as the 8th best prospect below A ball?

Travis Wood behind Jukich and Smit? or even for that matter Maloney or Fisher (although at least I could listen to an argument for those two).

Stubbs at 8 in the position players?

No Sean Watson in the top 12 starting pitchers but you have James Avery?

mth123
10-13-2007, 04:31 PM
Couple of questions I have that I would be interested in hearing a reasoning for:

Mesoraco as the 8th best prospect below A ball?

Travis Wood behind Jukich and Smit? or even for that matter Maloney or Fisher (although at least I could listen to an argument for those two).

Stubbs at 8 in the position players?

No Sean Watson in the top 12 starting pitchers but you have James Avery?


Good questions:

Didn't have much to go on with Mesoraco. In his limited time he strikes me as a defensive back-up. Maybe I'm suffering from flashbacks to Dane Sardinha. I like Frazier, Lotzcar, Soto and Waring clearly more at this point from the draft. Cozart advanced and even though he seems to be touted as a utility guy he gets the nod for the higher level. Chiu intrigues me and based on the limited pitching he has done I went with him. Probably wishful thinking on Del Rosario but he seemed pretty effective and I took lack of information as a bigger positive than poor performance.

Watson was purely an oversight. I actually intended to include him on the relief list as the number 2 guy. I don't think the Reds intend for him to be a starter long term, but are trying to get him innings to speed his development. Since he was a starter in 2007, I simply blew it. But I'd put him at number 2 on the relief list and push everyone else down a notch.

Stubbs is some one I am very skeptical about. I know Stubbs is a good defender and has speed, but speedy outfielders really have no where to go if the bat doesn't develop. His lack of IF skills precludes him from being a valuable super sub type and the bar for offense is much higher in the OF than in the IF. Its possible that Stubbs could be more skilled than a lot of guys but unable to contribute because he may not have the bat for the OF and doesn't play the positions where his bat could pass. Dorn's bat seemed to take a step forward in 2007 and he has surpassed Stubbs IMO. I'm skeptical of Griffin, Valaika and Rosales ever being regulars but in general guys who can or have played MI have a decent chance at being very useful in a multi-position supersub role along the lines of Mark DeRosa if the bat is decent. These three seem to have a chance at that and don't have to develop into starters to help the big league team - making their downside less a problem. Stubbs, on the other hand, has to hit or he becomes Dewayne Wise. I like Francisco better on the basis of his power, but I'm skeptical there as well. I think another big power year could make him valuable trade bait, but I'd really be surprised if he turns into a starter in the big leagues unless he really changes his approach.

As for the starting pitchers, Wood is two years removed from being a top guy IMO. He showed some problems in 2006 and was sideleined a lot in 2007. He needs to make a big comeback. I agree with you on Maloney. I don't have high hopes of him being a plus starter in the major leagues, but he was acquired for a guy (as much as I don't like Kyle Lohse) who clearly is worthy of a back of the rotation spot and did nothing but pitch well after that. On that basis, I have to conclude that his trade value is pretty decent right now and ranked him at number 3 as a result. I hope that he is flipped in a deal (probably as a part of a package) for some one who really can be a middle of the rotation guy. Fisher has been my sleeper for about a year now and was looking good for about 2 and a half months. He seemed to wear out and IIRC openly complained of a tired arm. After skipping a turn, he pitched pretty well again for a while. In his case, I think he either gets past it and becomes an option for the 4th or 5th spot down the road or he simply needs a lighter load and seems to be a possibility as a good middle reliever. Jukich pitched well after a rough start and seemed to take a step forward. He is my choice as sleeper prospect who increases his value most in 2008. Smit and Wood are pretty similar in that they are both guys whose stock has dropped. I went with Smit simply because he was actually pitching. I view Wood in a similar fashion to Maloney. I am skeptical that he'll ever be a good major league starter, but he has some reputation and could be trade bait. Missing so much time last year killed that and dropped him on my list. I am hopeful that he can rebound and move back up.

Aronchis
10-13-2007, 05:29 PM
McBeth shouldn't even be on that list.

dougdirt
10-13-2007, 05:30 PM
McBeth shouldn't even be on that list.

Disagree completely. He has good stuff, he just needs to figure it out a little bit more.

Aronchis
10-13-2007, 05:48 PM
Disagree completely. He has good stuff, he just needs to figure it out a little bit more.

Not that way. I don't consider him a prospect anymore. Neither really, Bailey either.

Kc61
10-13-2007, 06:12 PM
Good list. A little depressing, though. The deepest list seems to be below A ball. And those types sometimes aren't so highly rated when they move up a few levels.

I thought McBeth, Rosales, Fisher, Smit and Griffin were a bit high. I thought Francisco, Stubbs and Wood were too low.

dougdirt
10-13-2007, 06:13 PM
Not that way. I don't consider him a prospect anymore. Neither really, Bailey either.

Gotcha. :thumbup:

Technically though, until they no longer qualify for ROY, they are prospects.

icehole3
10-14-2007, 09:27 AM
Luis Montano was Billings MVP along with Waring and he's not on the list, dude you couldve gone to minor league.com and saw that.

mth123
10-14-2007, 10:04 AM
Luis Montano was Billings MVP along with Waring and he's not on the list, dude you couldve gone to minor league.com and saw that.

6-0, 180 age 22, meh. Didn't blow me away, but neither did any of the bottom 4 or 5 on that list. I do think I'd drop Del Rosario down a bit if I were to do it again. That list should probably only have been about 6 deep or 7 with Mesoraco in 7th.

New Fever
10-14-2007, 11:45 AM
Justin Reed, Scott Carroll, and Phil Valiquette should all be on the below A ball list

mth123
10-14-2007, 12:00 PM
Justin Reed, Scott Carroll, and Phil Valiquette should all be on the below A ball list

Missed Valiquette. I agree on him but his leave of absence concerns me. Carroll seems kind of old for Billings but I like his size and he seemed to do well. Reed seems like a little, speedy lead-off type and I'm not big on those types of players but he did OK and he is young.

Anyone below Mesoraco didn't stand out and are pretty hard to project for me. I went 12 deep mostly for the other three lists and admit I'm not knowledgeable enough to rank the below A guys that far.

I didn't post this to be definitive but more to spur some discussion of Reds prospects. This part of the board is pretty dead these days and I wanted to try to get some discussion of the prospects going.

M2
10-14-2007, 04:14 PM
mth, I like the idea of breaking it up into separate groups.

Betterread
10-14-2007, 04:44 PM
I like your attempt to stratify the way prospects are perceived but I'm not sure of the reason for having a separate category for the Rookie-level league players. Here are the names I think are missing from your lists:
For the Starters: Jordan Smith should be in the top 12 - but I'm not sure the Reds have 10 legitimate starting pitching prospects
For relievers: Sean Watson and Terrell Young all throw harder than everyone on your list except for Mcbeth, Pelland and Roenicke. Jamie Arneson is another name to add. 5 names on your list are really reaches to describe as prospects. I think you were reaching because the Reds don't have 10 legitimate relief pitching prospects.
For position players: Justin Turner, Jose Castro and Sean Henry (the two Mets prospects we received for Conine) all make the top 12
For below A: Justin Reed, Charles Snowden are missing

GoReds33
10-14-2007, 05:05 PM
The below A list reminds me of a few years ago when we had all the talent we have now, except they were all youngsters. I hope all of these guys pan out very well. I hope that Brandon Waring lives up to his potential as well. He had a monster year.

mth123
10-14-2007, 05:14 PM
I like your attempt to stratify the way prospects are perceived but I'm not sure of the reason for having a separate category for the Rookie-level league players. Here are the names I think are missing from your lists:
For the Starters: Jordan Smith should be in the top 12 - but I'm not sure the Reds have 10 legitimate starting pitching prospects
For relievers: Sean Watson and Terrell Young all throw harder than everyone on your list except for Mcbeth, Pelland and Roenicke. Jamie Arneson is another name to add. 5 names on your list are really reaches to describe as prospects. I think you were reaching because the Reds don't have 10 legitimate relief pitching prospects.
For position players: Justin Turner, Jose Castro and Sean Henry (the two Mets prospects we received for Conine) all make the top 12
For below A: Justin Reed, Charles Snowden are missing

Yeah. I had Watson at number 2 on my relief list when I started this a long time ago. After Medlock was dealt I revised the list and took him off inadvertantly. I had him on my starters list and removed him with the intent of putting him on the relief list. By the time I got back around to it, I simply spaced it. He's number 2.

You're right about the non-prospects on some of the lists. In order to go deep enough on the position player list to spur the discussion of some of the players I wanted I had to include some other non-prospects on the other lists.

Upon review I'd add Jordan Smith at 9 and bump Gonzalez from the Starters list.

I like Jose Castro. He wasn't in the organization when I started this and I went back and added 1 player from the guys acquired later and chose Coats since he was in the majors.

I'm not big on Reed or Henry. They seem to lack the necessary power for the OF for my taste. Kind of intrigued by Turner but he's behind Griffin, Valaika, and Rosales as MI/supersub types.

I need to see Young do something. He seems behind the top 10 in relief. You could probably make a case for him over Lutz.

Snowden strikes me as too small at 6-1, 150 LBS. His 25 Innings look pretty good and he's only 19. I'd like to see him fill out a little.

AmarilloRed
10-15-2007, 01:30 AM
It seems once we get past Bailey and Cueto; the Reds have a real weakness at starting pitcher in the minors. Maloney ranked third? I hope we can address this in the future.

camisadelgolf
10-15-2007, 03:16 AM
Here are my rankings:

Rank Starters Relief Pos Players Below A
1 Bailey Roenicke Bruce Frazier
2 Cueto McBeth Votto Lotzkar
3 Maloney Viola Stubbs Soto
4 Wood Pelland Valaika Chiu
5 Watson Guevara Dorn Waring
6 Fisher Asadoorian Turner Hildebrandt
7 Smit Rojas Francisco Menchaca
8 Thompson Ramirez Heisey Snowden
9 Carroll Geronimo Parker Gianchou
10 Smith Manuel Cozart Cabrera
11 Webb Pauly Coats Honeycutt
12 Gonzalez Lutz Hanigan Mendez
I decided to include Sean Watson as a starter until his transition becomes official. For the 12th starter, I was torn between Jordan Smith and Evan Hildebrandt (who has yet to pitch professionally), but I'm not too impressed with Smith, so I went with Hildebrandt, who the Reds were willing to pay above slot money.
For the relievers, I decided not to include Brad Salmon since I believe he is no longer a rookie. And just to be clear, the Ramirez I selected as the reliever is Ramon Ramirez, who has flown under a lot of people's radar and been particularly impressive since switching to the bullpen.
Zack Cozart spent the year in Dayton, so I put him in the position players category. I haven't heard much about Jamie Gianchou except that he received the highest signing bonus ever for an Australian (when Krivsky shells out $100,000 for a teenager, I figure the guy must have some pretty good worth). Not much is expected of Charles Snowden, but I like what I've seen so far. Angel Cabrera might have already reached his ceiling, but in limited playing time since being drafted in '05, his numbers are very impressive. I think Harris Honeycutt will impress a lot of people next year. I think Carlos Mendez could break out, too, even though his overall numbers weren't all that great this year--I'm a big fan of his ability to avoid strikeouts, though.

dougdirt
10-15-2007, 08:20 AM
Mesoraco isn't in your top 12 prospects below A ball.... in the REDS system?!

I understand he played pretty poorly, but wow... talk about putting way too much stock into 200 at bats.

camisadelgolf
10-15-2007, 08:27 AM
Mesoraco isn't in your top 12 prospects below A ball.... in the REDS system?!

I understand he played pretty poorly, but wow... talk about putting way too much stock into 200 at bats.

:doh: Oops. I feel stupid. I thought I had included him. I can't edit it, but I'd put him between Lotzkar and Soto.

dougdirt
10-15-2007, 08:49 AM
:doh: Oops. I feel stupid. I thought I had included him. I can't edit it, but I'd put him between Lotzkar and Soto.

Ok.... you have restored all of my faith in you.

Now I wish someone could restore my faith in the Reds.....

texasdave
10-15-2007, 08:59 AM
How often do players from either the Dominican or Venezuelan Summer Leagues actually make it to the majors? Are those leagues equivalent to rookie leagues? Low A leagues? There are 3 or 4 players down there that have put up pretty good statistics. Should they be considered in these rankings?

dougdirt
10-15-2007, 09:07 AM
Personally, I think these leagues are below the competition level of the GCL. There are reasons outside of performance that so few guys are brought over to play here, but guys who perform well there don't always perform so well here. Unless a guy is 16 or 17 and playing incredibly well, I would be very hesitant to rank them anywhere in the top 40 prospects of the Reds.

HokieRed
10-15-2007, 10:16 AM
No Adam Rosales anywhere in the position players?

bucksfan2
10-15-2007, 10:23 AM
Couple of questions for all you minor league nuts
How do you get all your minor league info?

I am curious to Mesorasco's status as a reds prospect. In my mind the only reason he would be ranked high as a prospect now is due to his draft spot. He really had a lackluster first season and I am not down on him but I am curious as to why many people are very high on him.

dougdirt
10-15-2007, 11:02 AM
I get my info from all over the place. Baseball America. Scouts for several teams. Reading tons of newspapers around the country. Several other prospect related websites.

As for Mesoraco, he played with two injured thumbs this season. I don't put much stock into 200 at bats in a guys first season, especially coming out of high school. He has good tools, plays a premium position, is very skilled defensively and has lots of upside.

edabbs44
10-15-2007, 11:07 AM
It seems once we get past Bailey and Cueto; the Reds have a real weakness at starting pitcher in the minors. Maloney ranked third? I hope we can address this in the future.

You can say that again.

kaldaniels
10-15-2007, 11:36 AM
It seems once we get past Bailey and Cueto; the Reds have a real weakness at starting pitcher in the minors. Maloney ranked third? I hope we can address this in the future.

Cueto stormed out of nowhere the past year and 1/2. All we need is 1 of those type players (starters) to break out every 2 years if you ask me. Anything more is being greedy. I'd say it's safe to say no matter how good the pipeline is....you aren't going to get a Hughes/Bailey/Lincecum/Cueto type etc each year. Lets see if any low minors pitchers bust out this year. I'd say the majority of teams would be extremely pleased with a 1-2-3 in the minors of Bailey,Cueto,Maloney.

texasdave
10-15-2007, 01:47 PM
Personally, I think these leagues are below the competition level of the GCL. There are reasons outside of performance that so few guys are brought over to play here, but guys who perform well there don't always perform so well here. Unless a guy is 16 or 17 and playing incredibly well, I would be very hesitant to rank them anywhere in the top 40 prospects of the Reds.

Thanks. There may be one player that qualifies using that criteria. Henry Rodriguez is listed as 17. He plays the middle infield (2b). The league average obp/slg/ops is .352/.346/.698. Rodriquez' line is .361/.427/.788. A middle infielder who is OPSing almost a hundred points over the league average at the age of 17 appears to be someone to keep an eye on.

TRF
10-15-2007, 02:20 PM
I have a quick question. Looking at their stats alone, Cueto and Maloney had very similar results, with Cueto having a slightly better ERA.

So what is it that makes Cueto the much better prospect? Out pitch? Repertoire? Velocity? Maloney seems to know how to pitch to his strengths and has very good K numbers. Why no love for him?

dougdirt
10-15-2007, 02:32 PM
Well for starters, Maloney can't hit 90 MPH on his absolute best day, while Cueto has hit 98 MPH before. Cueto also has several plus pitches with his slider and his fastball, while Maloney, at least as of the most recent scouting reports I have seen, have him with 4 average pitches with good control of them (which will get you good results in the minor leagues). Guys like Maloney don't see much success at the major league level without outstanding stuff. You can only fool people so much while working in the 85-88 MPH range.

TRF
10-15-2007, 02:45 PM
ok, a followup. If Maloney is sitting in the Dumatrait range as far as velocity goes, why do you think he was so much more successful a getting K's. Maloney's K/9 at Louisville was sick. Dumatrait never had any kind of stretch where he was K'ing 9 per 9 innings. In fact he never had that success at AA either, but Maloney did in 2 leagues.

Superdude
10-15-2007, 03:09 PM
Dumatrait has the better arm of the two, but has no command or control or pitchability or whatever you want to call it. Maloney has a mediocre arm, but has a good idea of what to do with it. He's made it to AAA without his stuff failing him, so that's a good sign.

dougdirt
10-15-2007, 03:50 PM
What superdude said basically. Good movement and 4 different pitches combined with control of them will get you far in the minor leagues.

AmarilloRed
10-15-2007, 11:22 PM
If Maloney hits 85-88 with his fastball and has 4 average pitches with good control of them, could he be successful as a back -end starter for the Reds? It does not seem as if he has good enough stuff to dominate as a starter, but he could be a good 4th or 5th starter if he has 4 pitches with good movement, and control of them. We could use another 4th or 5th starter who can actually pitch.

camisadelgolf
10-16-2007, 03:19 AM
No Adam Rosales anywhere in the position players?

Next year will tell me a lot about how I feel about Rosales. He's playing first base now, so it's important that he produce offensively (which he did this year), but his K-rate is unimpressive, and that's something I put a lot of faith in. If he duplicates his numbers next year between AA and AAA, he'd most likely be in the top-ten.

mth123
10-16-2007, 05:43 AM
Next year will tell me a lot about how I feel about Rosales. He's playing first base now, so it's important that he produce offensively (which he did this year), but his K-rate is unimpressive, and that's something I put a lot of faith in. If he duplicates his numbers next year between AA and AAA, he'd most likely be in the top-ten.

I really think the 1B stuff for Roales was a chance to let his arm heal and to give the IF spots to other players. I don't believe that the Reds envision him as a 1B long term. If so, then I agree he belongs down on the list or completely off the list. I see his role as Ryan Freel with power. That is why I rated him as high as I did.

I value guys like that can have real value to a major league team as opposed to a guy like say Stubbs who needs to develop a reliable bat in order to become an everyday CF. If that doesn't happen he becomes a speedy defensive replacement in the Dewayne Wise mold. Stubbs value is based entirely on him being able to do something that he hasn't really done in 2 years in the organization, while Rosales has already played multiple positions and his bat seems ok.

I guess I just place more value on probability of contribution than on a dream of what could be. If Stubbs hits he'll be a better player than most of the guys on this list. Its too big an if for my tastes. Stubbs primary value to the Reds IMO as tradebait while Baseball America and the like are still touting him. OTOH, I think Rosales will be ready for a bench role before 2008 is over.

camisadelgolf
10-16-2007, 07:18 AM
I really think the 1B stuff for Roales was a chance to let his arm heal and to give the IF spots to other players. I don't believe that the Reds envision him as a 1B long term. If so, then I agree he belongs down on the list or completely off the list. I see his role as Ryan Freel with power. That is why I rated him as high as I did.

I value guys like that can have real value to a major league team as opposed to a guy like say Stubbs who needs to develop a reliable bat in order to become an everyday CF. If that doesn't happen he becomes a speedy defensive replacement in the Dewayne Wise mold. Stubbs value is based entirely on him being able to do something that he hasn't really done in 2 years in the organization, while Rosales has already played multiple positions and his bat seems ok.

I guess I just place more value on probability of contribution than on a dream of what could be. If Stubbs hits he'll be a better player than most of the guys on this list. Its too big an if for my tastes. Stubbs primary value to the Reds IMO as tradebait while Baseball America and the like are still touting him. OTOH, I think Rosales will be ready for a bench role before 2008 is over.

That's fair. When Rosales' arm heals, what do you see as his primary position? It seems as if he has a heck of a bat for a shortstop. One thing I didn't mention is that in 2006, Rosales didn't look very good. When I have the time, I'll check the BABIP differentials between '06 and '07. If I can expect more of the 2007 numbers, like I said, I'll rank him higher.

As for Stubbs, he walks a little more than Rosales, and his K/BB ratio is nearly the same, so to say Rosales is above Stubbs in prospect status at this juncture is difficult for me to accept.

HokieRed
10-16-2007, 08:03 AM
I think I remember from the box that Rosales played SS in his first AFL game.

dougdirt
10-16-2007, 09:44 AM
I value guys like that can have real value to a major league team as opposed to a guy like say Stubbs who needs to develop a reliable bat in order to become an everyday CF. If that doesn't happen he becomes a speedy defensive replacement in the Dewayne Wise mold. Stubbs value is based entirely on him being able to do something that he hasn't really done in 2 years in the organization, while Rosales has already played multiple positions and his bat seems ok.
Drew Stubbs had an .880 OPS from July until the end of the season, a stretch that was 250 plate appearances. While he hit poorly for the first part of the year, something obviously changed (and no, I don't think it was the choking up thing, as in his previous 125 plate appearances he had an OPS of .925). Obviously he needs to carry that forward, but he has shown the ability to do it. As for Rosales, I have heard that his arm is doing better now, although I don't know the reliability of that fully. I don't know if he will ever play shortstop for more than a fill in type at a major league level, but I would bet he could play another position up there.



I guess I just place more value on probability of contribution than on a dream of what could be. If Stubbs hits he'll be a better player than most of the guys on this list. Its too big an if for my tastes. Stubbs primary value to the Reds IMO as tradebait while Baseball America and the like are still touting him. OTOH, I think Rosales will be ready for a bench role before 2008 is over.
Guess thats where we disagree on Stubbs. I take a lot more out of his most recent 250 plate appearances, than his first or second, which came a while ago.

Benihana
10-16-2007, 11:16 AM
My list goes something like this (if you're still rookie-eligible you are eligible for the list):

POSITION PLAYERS

1. Jay Bruce OF
2. Joey Votto 1B/OF
3. Drew Stubbs CF
4. Daniel Dorn OF
5. Juan Francisco 3B/OF
6. Adam Rosales INF
7. Chris Valaika 2B/SS
8. Justin Turner 2B
9. Chris Dickerson CF
10. Craig Tatum C

STARTING PITCHING

1. Homer Bailey R
2. Johnny Cueto R
3. Travis Wood L
4. Matt Maloney L
5. Sean Watson R
6. Sam LeCure R
7. Daryl Thompson R
8. Ben Jukich L
9. Carlos Fisher R
10. Alexander Smit L

RELIEF PITCHING

1. Jared Burton (still rookie eligible I believe)
2. Josh Roenicke
3. Pedro Viola
4. Tyler Pelland
5. Carlos Guevara

BELOW A BALL

1. Todd Frazier SS/3B/OF
2. Brandon Waring 1B/3B/OF
3. Kyle Lotzkar RHP
4. Devin Mesoraco C
5. Neftali Soto SS/3B/OF

I only listed 30 guys (5 only for relief and rookie level) because after the Top 30, everyone else kind of lumps together. Until guys like Cozart, Reed, Ravin, Chiu, etc. start doing something to really differentiate themselves, I'll focus on the Top 30 guys in the organization.

dougdirt
10-16-2007, 11:21 AM
My list goes something like this (if you're still rookie-eligible you are eligible for the list):

POSITION PLAYERS

1. Jay Bruce OF
2. Joey Votto 1B/OF
3. Drew Stubbs CF
4. Daniel Dorn OF
5. Juan Francisco 3B/OF
6. Adam Rosales INF
7. Chris Valaika 2B/SS
8. Justin Turner 2B
9. Chris Dickerson CF
10. Craig Tatum C

STARTING PITCHING

1. Homer Bailey
2. Johnny Cueto
3. Travis Wood
4. Matt Maloney
5. Sean Watson
6. Sam LeCure
7. Daryl Thompson
8. Ben Jukich
9. Carlos Fisher
10. Alexander Smit

RELIEF PITCHING

1. Jared Burton
2. Josh Roenicke
3. Pedro Viola
4. Tyler Pelland
5. Carlos Guevara

BELOW A BALL

1. Todd Frazier
2. Brandon Waring
3. Kyle Lotzkar
4. Devin Mesoraco
5. Neftali Soto

GREAT list IMO. :thumbup:

mth123
10-16-2007, 07:54 PM
Drew Stubbs had an .880 OPS from July until the end of the season, a stretch that was 250 plate appearances. While he hit poorly for the first part of the year, something obviously changed (and no, I don't think it was the choking up thing, as in his previous 125 plate appearances he had an OPS of .925). Obviously he needs to carry that forward, but he has shown the ability to do it. As for Rosales, I have heard that his arm is doing better now, although I don't know the reliability of that fully. I don't know if he will ever play shortstop for more than a fill in type at a major league level, but I would bet he could play another position up there.


Guess thats where we disagree on Stubbs. I take a lot more out of his most recent 250 plate appearances, than his first or second, which came a while ago.

Stubbs 2nd half is what got him on my list at all. I had dropped him off prior to that. I'm actually pretty excited about his progress in the second half and hope he shows us why everyone has him rated so highly. I acknowldege that if Stubbs hits, he is probably number 3 on the list. But until we see a break out year, I can't put him ahead of a guy who was .140 OPS points better and 2 levels higher.

His "get on the list free" card expired after 2 below average OPS seasons in a row. I need to see it first at this point. I think where we disagree is that you have him high on the list for his ceiling and I have him ranked based on his floor.

gedred69
10-16-2007, 08:31 PM
Frequently we've had threads about the top 10, top 40, top 20 pre-season, mid-season, off-season etc. Much of the discussion ends up being a debate of relievers versus other players, low minors players with a limited track record versus higher level players and stats versus tools. To try and limit the side issues and to help focus the discussion on the players themselves, I've created my list going into the winter by separating the players into four categories: Starting Pitchers, Relievers, Position Players and Below A Ball level players. I've rated the top dozen of each. No real reason for choosing a dozen but here they are:




Rank Starters Relief Pos Players Below A
1 Bailey Roenicke Bruce Frazier
2 Cueto McBeth Votto Lotzcar
3 Maloney Viola Rosales Waring
4 Fisher Pelland Dorn Soto
5 Jukich Salmon Griffin Chiu
6 Smit Guevara Francisco Cozart
7 Wood Ruzic Valaika E. Del Rosario
8 Lecure Rojas Stubbs Mesoraco
9 Thompson Geronimo Dickerson K. Jones
10 Ondrusek Asadoorian Perez McKennon
11 Avery Lutz Tatum Ef. Rodriguez
12 Gonzalez Medina Coats Menchaca


In the below A category, How do you rank Lotzcar and Frazier above Waring!? Waring has given every appearance of an absolute monster. He wins Billings triple crown, Pioneer league HR, 3rd in RBI's, 15th in BA. What about Bartles as well? Early on in the GCL--- which he dominated, and then did extremely well when moved up to Billings.

mth123
10-16-2007, 09:09 PM
In the below A category, How do you rank Lotzcar and Frazier above Waring!? Waring has given every appearance of an absolute monster. He wins Billings triple crown, Pioneer league HR, 3rd in RBI's, 15th in BA. What about Bartles as well? Early on in the GCL--- which he dominated, and then did extremely well when moved up to Billings.

Frazier was the best combination of pedigree and performance in the Reds draft. Mesoraco had the Pedigree but didn't perform. Waring performed, but has a lesser pedigree (7th round pick I believe). The short season leagues are filled with guys who are dominant at that level and go on to be nothing special.

Lotzkar (I misspelled it) is a 6-4, 200 LB, 17 year old who did pretty well and throws upper 90s. He had 1st round (sandwich pick) pedigree as well.

remdog
10-16-2007, 09:11 PM
Guys like Maloney don't see much success at the major league level without outstanding stuff. You can only fool people so much while working in the 85-88 MPH range.

Not trying to dump on you here DD but it's just a bit ironic to read that statement while watching Paul Byrd slog through the Red Sox with average velocity around 80 mph. :)

Of course, Byrd has had years to pefect his act which Maloney hasn't had yet. I used to follow the minors closely but don't have the time anymore. I have wondered about Maloney's high rateing as well since I really don't think that Lohse was worth much. If Maloney really is a bright prospect I'd have to put that trade into the 'plus' side of the ledger for Krivsky. Personally, that would be great with me and maybe the Reds can use someone that can come in and throw four solid pitches over the plate consistantly. (famous shrug)

Rem

dougdirt
10-16-2007, 10:29 PM
In the below A category, How do you rank Lotzcar and Frazier above Waring!? Waring has given every appearance of an absolute monster. He wins Billings triple crown, Pioneer league HR, 3rd in RBI's, 15th in BA. What about Bartles as well? Early on in the GCL--- which he dominated, and then did extremely well when moved up to Billings.
In the minor leagues, numbers are not always the name of the game. Lotzkar and Frazier, and for that matter Soto and Mesoraco are all likely better prospects than Waring. Bartles looks very solid and for how he has performed so far looks to be an absolute steal for the lower half of the draft.

gedred69
10-17-2007, 08:36 PM
Frazier was the best combination of pedigree and performance in the Reds draft. Mesoraco had the Pedigree but didn't perform. Waring performed, but has a lesser pedigree (7th round pick I believe). The short season leagues are filled with guys who are dominant at that level and go on to be nothing special.

Lotzkar (I misspelled it) is a 6-4, 200 LB, 17 year old who did pretty well and throws upper 90s. He had 1st round (sandwich pick) pedigree as well.

Okay, so much for the stat sheet. Have you seen these guys play? I was hoping someone had seen then actually "in the arena", and could make some observations 1st hand. And, what does pedigree mean? Aren't those guys, frequently big disappointments?

dougdirt
10-17-2007, 08:56 PM
Okay, so much for the stat sheet. Have you seen these guys play? I was hoping someone had seen then actually "in the arena", and could make some observations 1st hand. And, what does pedigree mean? Aren't those guys, frequently big disappointments?

Everyone on the whole is a big disappointment if you just look at how few draftees make it to the big leagues. As of right now, I doubt there are more than 3 people on the board who have seen anyone drafted this year play in person, becuase they have all played (outside of Frazier and Waring who played a combined 10 games in Dayton or so) in either Montana or in the GCL Rookie League where no one is ever in attendence, and I do mean no one. At this point all you have to go by are stats and scouts opinions.... and especially at this point, scouts opinions count a lot more than stats do. At least in my mind.

mth123
10-17-2007, 09:42 PM
Okay, so much for the stat sheet. Have you seen these guys play? I was hoping someone had seen then actually "in the arena", and could make some observations 1st hand. And, what does pedigree mean? Aren't those guys, frequently big disappointments?

I haven't seen them play and admit I'm no expert at all. I just wanted to get some discusion started about Red's prospects and see what everyone else had to say. Doug had it right, not many of the board members have seen these guys.

As for prospects below A Ball, stats can be tricky. A three year college player like Waring should be expected to accumulate impressive stats in a league mostly designed for 18 and 19 year olds. The disparity of preparation levels is largest at the lowest levels. It becomes more reasonable to be more stat focused as the levels increase. Its the main reason I separated Below A from other prospects. I do look at the stats, but those are more to identify who isn't performing than who is. BTW, I gave Waring plenty of credit for his big year. As a 7th Round Pick out of a draft where the Reds had all their regular picks and several extra picks ahead of him (Including a couple sandwich picks at the end of round 1), his season jumped him to third on my list ahead of a number of players that scouts (guys who have seen them play and are paid to rate these guys) rated ahead of him only 4 months ago.

Will M
10-17-2007, 09:48 PM
I haven't seen them play and admit I'm no expert at all. I just wanted to get some discusion started about Red's prospects and see what everyone else had to say. Doug had it right, not many of the board members have seen these guys.

As for prospects below A Ball, stats can be tricky. A three year college player like Waring should be expected to accumulate impressive stats in a league mostly designed for 18 and 19 year olds. The disparity of preparation levels is largest at the lowest levels. It becomes more reasonable to be more stat focused as the levels increase. Its the main reason I separated Below A from other prospects. I do look at the stats, but those are more to identify who isn't performing than who is. BTW, I gave Waring plenty of credit for his big year. As a 7th Round Pick out of a draft where the Reds had all their regular picks and several extra picks ahead of him (Including a couple sandwich picks at the end of round 1), his season jumped him to third on my list ahead of a number of players that scouts (guys who have seen them play and are paid to rate these guys) rated ahead of him only 4 months ago.

I only get excited about prospects ( especially pitchers ) when they do well at AA. A lot can happen between rookie ball or low A and the major leagues.

RedsManRick
10-18-2007, 09:02 PM
From a Baseball Prospectus chat today:

ericmilburn (San Francisco ): Bryan, So if Longoria is the #2 prospect in baseball, does that make Jay Bruce the #1?

Bryan Smith: Yes, Bruce should be the uncontested #1 on all lists, in my mind.

dougdirt
10-19-2007, 12:02 AM
I tried to talk some sense into Bryan Smith at the end of last season with Bruce.... he was unsure about him at that time.