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View Full Version : Twins offer Silva a 3-year deal. Can the Reds offer a 4-year deal at that amount?



ChatterRed
10-24-2007, 06:23 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors;_ylt=Arghc6.jjEn77bs61H_GBzQRvLYF

$7 million per year? Can the Reds offer a 4-year deal at that amount?

Problem is, with Bailey and Cueto developing, do we need him? Part of me thinks we could use him. He's still young enough that his better years are possibly ahead of him.

What do you think?

AmarilloRed
10-24-2007, 06:29 PM
I don't think that offer will be enough. Silva seems to want a fourth year in his contract. I suppose it all depends on how quickly Bailey and Cueto develop. I think he could be a good no.3, and I would love it if we could keep it at 7 million , instead of 9 or 10 like I have been hearing. Here are his recent stats:

Year Team G GS W L CG IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2005 MIN 27 27 9 8 2 188.3 212 83 72 25 9 71 3.44 1.17 .291
2006 MIN 36 31 11 15 0 180.3 246 130 119 38 32 70 5.94 1.54 .324
2007 MIN 33 33 13 14 2 202 229 99 94 20 36 89 4.19 1.31 .287

Career M 55 46 945 1122 489 453 117 171 395 4.31 1.37 .299

Judge for yourself if you want that sort of pitcher in our rotation

GoReds33
10-24-2007, 06:31 PM
7 mil would be fine for him. I think he'll get more. Hopefully it's from the Reds.

Bip Roberts
10-24-2007, 06:39 PM
Id rather have Schilling for 13 a year for 2 years than Silva for 7 for 4

ChatterRed
10-24-2007, 06:55 PM
Id rather have Schilling for 13 a year for 2 years than Silva for 7 for 4


I agree with that.

HalMorrisRules
10-24-2007, 09:12 PM
That .BAA in GABP could be scary.

BearcatShane
10-24-2007, 09:23 PM
I wouldn't be opposed to giving Silva a 3 year 27 million dollar deal.

rotnoid
10-24-2007, 09:57 PM
I wouldn't be opposed to giving Silva a 3 year 27 million dollar deal.

nobody would. He's going to get much more than that. He's at least as good as some of the guys that got ridiculous deals last year (Meche and Suppan for example) and he's younger. At 26, he's probably going to get 4/42 at least. It doesn't help that there aren't many young top tier pitchers available this year.

AmarilloRed
10-24-2007, 10:26 PM
Silva is younger than any of them and his fine 2007 sets the bar at four years, $40MM. Stretching that to $42-44MM would not be ridiculous.

It looks like 4-40 will be the minimum with 42-44 being a possibility. It seems unlikely anyone will get him for only 7 million.

stevekun
10-25-2007, 02:01 PM
When can we offer him?

AmarilloRed
10-25-2007, 03:40 PM
There is a 15-day filing period for free agents after the World Series is over. The Twins have exclusive negotiating rights with Silva for those fifteen days. After that period, Silva can negotiate with any other team.

Bip Roberts
10-25-2007, 03:49 PM
There is a 15-day filing period for free agents after the World Series is over. The Twins have exclusive negotiating rights with Silva for those fifteen days. After that period, Silva can negotiate with any other team.

I thought it was 10 days :dunno:

nyjwagner
10-25-2007, 04:54 PM
Schilling is never coming to Cincy. Not close enough to winning, and not a big enough media market.... gotta let go of that idea.

Degenerate39
10-25-2007, 08:51 PM
Schilling is never coming to Cincy. Not close enough to winning, and not a big enough media market.... gotta let go of that idea.

Schilling said he would go to Tampa Bay because of all the young guys. Tampa doesn't have a big enough media market not are they close to winning.

Will M
10-25-2007, 11:15 PM
That .BAA in GABP could be scary.

I don't want Silva. By May 15th we could realize we have another Miltonesque disaster on our hands.

PLUS with Belisle, Bailey & Cueto we might have a great rotation by 2009. IMO we need a one year starter ( Schilling! , Lieber? ) and then see how the above three perform in 2008.

AmarilloRed
10-26-2007, 12:56 AM
I thought it was 10 days :dunno:

Close of 2007 World Series
The day after the end of the World Series marks the beginning of the 15-day period during which eligible players may elect free agency or demand a trade. Former club retains exclusive negotiating rights until 15-day filing period expires. A player who has filed for free agency may engage in general discussions with other clubs but may not discuss contract details or sign with them until the filing period ends Nov. 11. CBA, Article XX (B).

I read that as a 15 day filing period.

Bip Roberts
10-26-2007, 08:41 AM
Close of 2007 World Series
The day after the end of the World Series marks the beginning of the 15-day period during which eligible players may elect free agency or demand a trade. Former club retains exclusive negotiating rights until 15-day filing period expires. A player who has filed for free agency may engage in general discussions with other clubs but may not discuss contract details or sign with them until the filing period ends Nov. 11. CBA, Article XX (B).

I read that as a 15 day filing period.

K

*BaseClogger*
10-26-2007, 09:35 AM
I think even a 3-year deal is pretty risky for a pitcher who is so un-dominant and rellies on letting the hitters put the ball in play... especially in GABP and with our defense...

Orenda
10-26-2007, 12:16 PM
I think even a 3-year deal is pretty risky for a pitcher who is so un-dominant and rellies on letting the hitters put the ball in play... especially in GABP and with our defense...

What isn't risky anymore? Silva may not be the type of pitcher the reds need to take a chance with, however I'd like their odds with him more than Belisle's. The BAA is concerning, but he might see some of that success that Arroyo and others have seen while switching leagues. You should also keep in mind that Homer Bailey and Johny Cueto may still be another year or two away from developing into consistent major league pitchers and they will have setbacks. If the reds had a 1-4 of Harang, Arroyo, Silva, Belisle, it could help alleviate the growing pains of Bailey and Cueto both being forced into the rotation too soon.

AmarilloRed
10-26-2007, 12:54 PM
I read that he is a sinkerballer pitcher, and gets a lot of ground outs. We need that sort of pitcher in GABP. He seemed to make a certain amount of progress between 2006 and 2007. and there is a reasonable chance he will make some more improvement in 2008. Everything I have heard seems to indicate he will be the best starter on the FA market in 2008. I know that is not saying much, though.

Bip Roberts
10-26-2007, 12:58 PM
I just dont like offering guys long deals

AmarilloRed
11-04-2007, 06:25 PM
CARLOS SILVA? The best fit for the Reds as far as a free agent starter seems to be Carlos Silva, a 28-year-old right-hander.

Silva is 55-46 with a 4.31 ERA in his career - all with Minnesota. He was 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA last season.

He made $4.35 million last year. But given the thinness of the market, he'll probably get a fortune as a free agent.

E-mail jfay@enquirer.com

Fay seems to be suggesting the Reds may be interested in signing Carlos Silva in FA.

Degenerate39
11-04-2007, 06:26 PM
I hope not he'll get way too much money and I don't think he'll even do that good in Cincinnati.

AmarilloRed
11-04-2007, 06:30 PM
Silva posted a solid 4.19 ERA in 202 innings, a performance more in line with his career marks. As a result he's arguably the best available free agent starter this winter and stands to snag a contract of at least four years and $40MM (with no cost in draft picks). La Velle E. Neal III says the Twins want him back, and Bill Smith is already talking about the intangibles the team offers for him. The Twins may balk at even $8MM annually.

Neal notes that the Diamondbacks, Braves, Cubs, Mets, and Phillies had interest in trading for Silva this summer. That pretty well sums it up. We can probably add the Reds to the mix. Looking at Nick Cafardo's recent summary, the Devil Rays, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Cardinals, and Dodgers all seek to add veteran starting pitching. Silva typically ranks in the top 20 for groundball rate, so he may try to avoid stadiums with artificial turf.

He seems to get a lot of groundballs and he posted a low ERA. I would definitely think about it if we can get him at $10 million.

Screwball
11-04-2007, 06:50 PM
He won't walk a lot of batters, but with a career K/9 rate of 3.76, Silva doesn't miss nearly enough bats. Pitching to contact in GABP with the Reds' defense behind him scares the bejeezus out of me. He may be the best FA pitcher available, but with a price tag ~8-10 million, I'd stay far, far away.

AmarilloRed
11-04-2007, 07:03 PM
He doesn't have to miss bats if he can get ground-ball outs. The Reds have a pretty good infield defense now, and he would work in GABP. I would rather the Reds go after a ground-ball pitcher then a fly-ball pitcher. Bailey and Cueto are not cant-miss prospects, and Silva would be insurance if either of them failed. I would like the Reds to go after Silva.

Screwball
11-04-2007, 07:20 PM
His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) the last couple years has been 5.81, 4.20, and 4.60 - very average to way below average numbers. I'm just not comfortable committing $40 MM and 4 years to a guy who needs great defense behind him and will be giving up a lot of contact in GABP. Save that money for someone better.

GoReds33
11-04-2007, 07:45 PM
Personally I'm intrested in anybody better than what we have. With Silva, that means that we would be getting somebody with atleast a semblence of consistency. That would be better than our current 4 and 5 starters. For the right price he should defenitly be looked at.

Jay Bruce
11-04-2007, 07:50 PM
His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) the last couple years has been 5.81, 4.20, and 4.60 - very average to way below average numbers. I'm just not comfortable committing $40 MM and 4 years to a guy who needs great defense behind him and will be giving up a lot of contact in GABP. Save that money for someone better.

Just as an additional point, his GB/FB ratio since becoming a starter in 2004 are 1.6, 1.58,1.28 and 1.41. Sure he is more likely to give up a GB than a FB, but he is not the spectacular groundball pitcher that some believe. In addition, his HR/9 has been 1.02, 1.19, 1.90(!), and 0.89 each year since he came a starter. So, even with his groundball tendencies, he is still prone to the homerun. If the Reds were to put his abilities into GABP, it could get ugly. Screwball is right, save the money for someone better, even if he isn't available this year.

*BaseClogger*
11-05-2007, 12:59 PM
I'd rather we go after Jason Jennings for much cheaper...

BLEEDS
11-05-2007, 06:21 PM
I'd rather we go after Jason Jennings for much cheaper...

and much brokener...

Give me a guy with a 4.31 career ERA playing 50% of his games in Hanky Stadium, and facing 9 batters every night. I'll be okay with it even if he gives up the occasional uncatchable fly ball. He didn't get a CAREER era of that by giving up many HR's with runners on base me-thinks...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

ChatterRed
12-10-2007, 09:49 PM
I'm going to let out a huge laugh at whatever team signs this guy for like 4 or 5 years at $10 million per.

The Reds went down that road with Milton. So it will be funny to watch some other team do it. I hope it's a team in our division. :p:

Bip Roberts
12-10-2007, 09:52 PM
These words will come back to haunt

Hondo
12-10-2007, 10:04 PM
Why would WK waste the Money?

thanks

*BaseClogger*
12-10-2007, 10:04 PM
I'm going to let out a huge laugh at whatever team signs this guy for like 4 or 5 years at $10 million per.

The Reds went down that road with Milton. So it will be funny to watch some other team do it. I hope it's a team in our division. :p:

couldn't agree more... your paying for the demand that the market dictates, not his actual ability... we might be able to get Derek Lowe for close to the same price next offseason, and he is a much better version of Carlos Silva...

TheBigLebowski
12-10-2007, 10:14 PM
Carlos Silva would be a disaster.

stevekun
12-11-2007, 12:03 PM
I guess I am the only one who would kinda like Silva here...why does everyone hate this guy?

The Cowboy
12-11-2007, 12:16 PM
I guess I am the only one who would kinda like Silva here...why does everyone hate this guy?

I dont know.. Hes a groundball pitcher and thats what we need.. It was this time last year when this site (which i was not a member of at the time) scolded the cubs signing of Ted Lilly and that worked out nicely for them.. Silva has been a decent pitcher in the a.l. and that would probably mean he would be a good ptcher in the nl.

AmarilloRed
12-11-2007, 12:45 PM
He does have a low strikeout rate, and a tendency to give up home runs. This is slightly balanced by his very low BB/9 rate, and the fact that he does get a lot of ground balls. We might need to sign someone like Silva if we do end up trading Bailey or Cueto (or both) for the likes of Bedard, but right now he will be getting more money than he is worth because he is the best(except for maybe Kuroda) starting pitcher free agent in a weak year.

Hondo
12-11-2007, 01:17 PM
Does anyone else feel really uncomfortable with giving Silva any Money whatsoever? Let other teams overpay for this guy. The Reds could use that Money to sign Bedard and Santana to LTC if they can Trade for them. Silva will be Milton allover again...

Thanks

ChatterRed
12-11-2007, 02:01 PM
Heck, sign Lieber for $4 million per year. He's about the same as Silva.

Handofdeath
12-11-2007, 03:27 PM
nobody would. He's going to get much more than that. He's at least as good as some of the guys that got ridiculous deals last year (Meche and Suppan for example) and he's younger. At 26, he's probably going to get 4/42 at least. It doesn't help that there aren't many young top tier pitchers available this year.

As good as Suppan? Maybe better. Better than Meche? No. Meche knows how to miss bats, Silva doesn't. And I have my doubts that Silva is any kind of groundball specialist. Check out his 2006 season, 38 homers allowed. He's very hittable and history shows that those type pitchers don't do well for the Reds. Silva is also 28, not 26. If I'm the Reds I wouldn't even take phone calls from his agent.

Bigredfan#1
12-13-2007, 09:25 AM
I don't think that offer will be enough. Silva seems to want a fourth year in his contract. I suppose it all depends on how quickly Bailey and Cueto develop. I think he could be a good no.3, and I would love it if we could keep it at 7 million , instead of 9 or 10 like I have been hearing. Here are his recent stats:

Year Team G GS W L CG IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2005 MIN 27 27 9 8 2 188.3 212 83 72 25 9 71 3.44 1.17 .291
2006 MIN 36 31 11 15 0 180.3 246 130 119 38 32 70 5.94 1.54 .324
2007 MIN 33 33 13 14 2 202 229 99 94 20 36 89 4.19 1.31 .287

Career M 55 46 945 1122 489 453 117 171 395 4.31 1.37 .299

Judge for yourself if you want that sort of pitcher in our rotation

I DON'T!! I would rather go with the young guys than give him any kind of contract over a year!

Hondo
12-16-2007, 08:37 PM
Do not even want any part of Silva... Pay a Real Pitcher. It is absurd how the DBacks get Haren and the Reds do nothing...

If the Reds want to WIN... Not COMPETE... Trade some parts for Santana and overpay for him...

Look what the Detroit Tigers had to do when they overpaid for Magglio Ordonez...

That had to be legit to get Free Agents to come there...

Pudge, Rogers, etc...

Then Look what happened...

Cordero was a good start... But The Reds need to get serious and Grab Santana like the DBacks grabbed Haren... Under the Radar... Ya know... I just want the Reds to win so bad and it upsets me after all the Miltons and all...

Why waste 8-10 Million on a Pitcher that Might be good in GAB? Go ahead and overpay Santana for 7 years and 140 Million and get a Cy Young Candiate that is going to win 15-22 Games, Pitch 200+ Innings, and Go Deep in Games the next 7 years...

Then go get Bedard and do the same thing, just don't pay him 140 Million over 7, I'd say 5 Years and 75 Million...

Thanks

Bip Roberts
12-16-2007, 09:08 PM
I like silva just not for the money and years he is expected to make