2008 breakout minor leaguer of the year

[TRF]

Since Doug has completed his top 40 list now would be a good time to start making predictions for next year. Who is your breakout candidate?

And for the fourth year in a row, I pick: Tyler Pelland. He made HUGE strides forward after being converted to a reliever.K rate up, walks down. lower WHIP, and he is still a flamethrower from the left side to boot. He could see time in the Reds pen by July or make for a fine trade chip as the reds pen is overloaded with LH's (Bray, Stanton, Cout, Guardado) Though I'd love to see him replace Stanton. He's able to pitch longer as he was a starter his entire professional career for the most part. Huge upside IMO and your breakout player of the year for 2008.

[OesterPoster]

Drew Stubbs, plain and simple.

[TRF]

Stubbs is a good candidate, IF he can keep his 2007 second half production going. But the FSL isn't a hitters league is it? He'll be tested, but if he hits, he's certainly got the defensive rep that says he'll be fine after that.

I also wonder if LeCure starts the season in AA or AAA. If its AA and he dominates the league, he makes for a nice trading chip. If it's AA he could be a breakout player.

[chicoruiz]

He's able to pitch longer as he was a starter his entire professional career for the most part.

I agree, and I hope it turns out that way, but there's some sort of institutional mass hypnosis in MLB today that 95% of all lefty relievers are viewed as LOOGYs. The multiple-inning lefty reliever is definitely on the endangered list.

[dougdirt]

I agree, and I hope it turns out that way, but there's some sort of institutional mass hypnosis in MLB today that 95% of all lefty relievers are viewed as LOOGYs. The multiple-inning lefty reliever is definitely on the endangered list.

Yeah, but how many lefites out of the bullpen are junk pitchers compared to guys with actual stuff? Pelland actually can throw, unlike most of these 'Loogy' guys around the league.

[TOBTTReds]

Yeah, but how many lefites out of the bullpen are junk pitchers compared to guys with actual stuff? Pelland actually can throw, unlike most of these 'Loogy' guys around the league.

Correct, most Loogy's are either washed up pitchers, or a guy with a slider and nothing else.

[Superdude]

Travis Wood. I predict he comes back healthy, dominates the FSL for a month or so, and then does much of the same in AA to claim the title of the next sweet Reds pitching prospect.

[Benihana]

Travis Wood. I predict he comes back healthy, dominates the FSL for a month or so, and then does much of the same in AA to claim the title of the next sweet Reds pitching prospect.

Travis Wood will either be spectacular this year or he will be drowned in injuries. There will be no middle ground.

[dougdirt]

Travis Wood will either be spectacular this year or he will be drowned in injuries. There will be no middle ground.

Well, given that he is healthy right now, I hope spectacular is the word we can use this time next year when referring to his 2008 season.

[RedsManRick]

I'll go with Pedro Viola. Lefties who can miss bats like that just don't stay secrets for long. Another year in the states can't hurt. Not that he'll be an ace closer or anything, but I think he'll find himself on the radar of a lot more people next summer.

[dougdirt]

Well, I am going to go ahead and just go with Miguel Perez. He showed something with his bat this year that he hasn't shown since he was in Billings. He is still quite young, he just has been around for a while.

[Blue]

I think Stubbs will break out and finish the season in AA.

I don't know if Kyle Lotzkar qualifies for this, but I expect he'll be seen as a top prospect one year from now.

[Prf15]

I am going to go with Adam Rosales. I think he is going to have a strong year this upcoming year and will be promoted up to Louisville and might get a chance next spring or in September. He improved a ton this year over last year and I think he will just continue improving and be one of the Reds best prospects.

[GoReds33]

I think Paul Janish will come on strong. I really think he underperformed last year. He had a terrible season. I just think that this young man will be a much better hitter next year. He is already one of the best defensive players in minor league baseball. I just hope that next year his hitting will come around, and he will make it up to the big club.

[gedred69]

I think Paul Janish will come on strong. I really think he underperformed last year. He had a terrible season. I just think that this young man will be a much better hitter next year. He is already one of the best defensive players in minor league baseball. I just hope that next year his hitting will come around, and he will make it up to the big club.

I went to several ST games in March, and the Reds must feel there is something to this guy as they gave him ample playing time. He started or at least played in every game I was at.

[gedred69]

And another thing. we keep talking about Bruce, and then Stubbs, and continue to omit Dan Dorn. This guy did Billings with Stubbs, skipped low A right to high A where he did Okay, got promoted to AA and turned it up several notches. Why does he stay under the radar? Am I missing some info?

[OnBaseMachine]

Travis Wood. I predict he comes back healthy, dominates the FSL for a month or so, and then does much of the same in AA to claim the title of the next sweet Reds pitching prospect.

Agreed. Good choice.

[Blue]

And another thing. we keep talking about Bruce, and then Stubbs, and continue to omit Dan Dorn. This guy did Billings with Stubbs, skipped low A right to high A where he did Okay, got promoted to AA and turned it up several notches. Why does he stay under the radar? Am I missing some info?

No. He's a good bet to be on everyone's radar mid way through this season.

[camisadelgolf]

My obvious choice is Josh Roenicke, but you could argue that he already had his breakout year. If you don't count him, I think this is the year Justin Reed puts it all together. My sleeper picks include Carlos Mendez, Brandon Menchaca, Angel Cabrera, Jordan Wideman, and Juan Rafael.

[mth123]

Carlos Fisher was my man last year and I'm sticking with him. The board is a lot more aware of him now and maybe he no longer qualifies, but I expect him to get it together with an offseason to rest his arm, dominate AA for a few weeks, pitch well at AAA and at some point make an appearance in Cincy. He may end up as a pen guy or hopefully has the goods for a number 4 rotation spot, but I'm guessing he appears in Cincy by the end of 2008.

My second choice is way off the board and that is Ben Jukich. I've been critical of WK in the past, but he does have a scouting ability to find guys who are completely off the radar just before they are ready to step forward. Jared Burton is a good example. I think WK acquired Jukich for a reason and Jukich put together a pretty good run after a rocky start in the organization. Its possible (likely) that its just a guy with pedestrian stuff fooling younger hitters at a level that was low for his age, but I'm guessing WK knows something.

How is that for some faith in the GM from one of his critics?

[Topcat]

Derrick Lutz is my Candidate and yes he is my adopted propsect so I am Bias but I just see him moving up fast.

[dougdirt]

Derrick Lutz is my Candidate and yes he is my adopted propsect so I am Bias but I just see him moving up fast.

I don't think it makes you biased at all.... he is a real good pick. He could be a fast mover next season with success.

[texasdave]

The player that I am hoping breaks out in a big way in 2008 is Devin Mesoraco, because he showed nothing at all in his first go-round. I understand that the first half season can be rough on players, but a .580 OPS is not exactly a confidence builder.

[dougdirt]

The player that I am hoping breaks out in a big way in 2008 is Devin Mesoraco, because he showed nothing at all in his first go-round. I understand that the first half season can be rough on players, but a .580 OPS is not exactly a confidence builder.

Defensively the reports were very good on him. He also was hitting with two injured thumbs..... not the easiest thing to do. I just hope he shows up healthy in February.

[M2]

I'll go with Luis Montano (over Justin Reed). Though I think Todd Frazier's the guy who's going to be grabbing the most headlines.

[dougdirt]

I'll go with Luis Montano (over Justin Reed). Though I think Todd Frazier's the guy who's going to be grabbing the most headlines.

I just hope he isn't grabbing them in Dayton, although I fear that is what will happen.....

[M2]

I just hope he isn't grabbing them in Dayton, although I fear that is what will happen.....

Trading Juan Francisco would certainly clear the deck for him and Waring. :devil:

My theory is if Frazier's bat is as ready-made as it seems, then he won't play at any level for too long.

[dougdirt]

Trading Juan Francisco would certainly clear the deck for him and Waring. :devil:

My theory is if Frazier's bat is as ready-made as it seems, then he won't play at any level for too long.

Valid point. I just envision him starting in Dayton and not getting a promotion until they move Valaika up as well....

[TRF]

So if we all agree, and we probably all do, that the top four are Bruce, Bailey and Cueto with Votto 4, who in the Reds org. has the talent AND baseball IQ of these guys.

In other words, who is the next Bruce in the system, the next Votto, the next Bailey or Cueto?

[lollipopcurve]

In other words, who is the next Bruce in the system, the next Votto, the next Bailey or Cueto?

there's no uber-prospect-to-be on the horizon -- the current wave is rare

[mth123]

So if we all agree, and we probably all do, that the top four are Bruce, Bailey and Cueto with Votto 4, who in the Reds org. has the talent AND baseball IQ of these guys.

In other words, who is the next Bruce in the system, the next Votto, the next Bailey or Cueto?

If it all works out I'll go with Frazier on offense and Kyle Lotzkar on the mound. But those guys have a far way to go. The Reds have a number of pitchers with number 4 starter potential which is quite an improvement over the last 20 years, but no one in any level above rookie leagues that looks like a Bailey or Cueto. If Lotzkar's stuff is as advertised, its him. He gets my nod by default though I usually reserve judgement on guys who haven't at least had a year at Dayton.

[Blue]

"In other words, who is the next Bruce in the system, the next Votto, the next Bailey or Cueto?"

I think the next Homer Bailey is Kyle Lotzkar. As for the rest, I don't think there is anyone with comparable skill sets. There are some players with really nice skill sets, IMO, but none that I would compare to these guys.

[Mario-Rijo]

I will go with Billy Rojo.......:rolleyes::D. This guy needs to go in the worst way to make room for the next stud IF of:

1B - M. McKennon
2B - Z. Cozart
SS - T. Frazier (His bat may play at A+ but his defense is YTBD)
3B - B. Waring

Ok seriously my breakout player is:

Rubin Medina RHP 21 yrs- Chattanooga (I am assuming he plays here, we'll see)

It's a bit of a stretch but I like what I see in the #'s.

[Red Daddy]

I'll go with Sean Watson and Devin Mesoraco. Watson was dominate until he moved up. He'll dominate that league this year. Mesoraco had 2 bad thumbs and will prove to be worth his pick.

Like others already predicted, I, too, think Stubbs will be great next year.

[gedred69]

I will watch Waring and Bartles, but still think the player to expect to pick up where he left off after moving up to AA is Dorn. Don't forget, he skipped Dayton going high A and ended up strong at AA. You could say that's like a 3 level jump in 1 season, ala Bruce. Truth is, it's great to be throwing all these guys out there. The future may well be extremely bright.

[Superdude]

I'll go with Sean Watson and Devin Mesoraco. Watson was dominate until he moved up. He'll dominate that league this year. Mesoraco had 2 bad thumbs and will prove to be worth his pick.

I like the Watson pick. I think he'll dominate Sarasota this time around. The mid 90's heater and filthy knuckle-curve give him plenty of upside as long as he keeps on developing his command and secondary stuff.

[klw]

My pick is Daryl Thompson, another year awaay from surgery will help him. Needs to cut down on the HR's though. Second choice is Carlos Guevara though my fear is that he will breakout in some other MLB team's pen.