Projected Starters Debate

[icehole3]

It's March 31 2008 and it's like a chinese fire drill down in Florida and the Reds are trying to get their minor league rosters set. Who goes where and more important who gets the coveted starting positions and youre the Minor leaguer coordinator and your job is on the line, who starts? This just a hypothetical pick by yours truly...thought I'd take a crack at it. Feel free to smack me in the head I can take it.


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Dayton Dragons Starters

LF Bartles_CF KJones _RF Phipps
3B Waring_SS Frazier _2B Soto _1B McKennon
C Mesoraco _ACE Lotzkar _2SP Montano _3SP Del Rosario _4SP Chiu _5SP Machuca _CLR Valiquette

Sarasota Starters

LF Heisey _CF Stubbs _RF Kainer
3B Francisco _SS Cozart _2B Turner _1B Parker
C Kroski _ACE Gonzalez _2SP Smith _3SP Webb _4SP Guerrero _5SP Gressick _CLR Geronimo


Chattanooga Starters

LF Strait _CF Holden _RF Dorn
3B Cruz _SS Valaika _2B DeJesus _1B Piepkorn
C Tatum _ACE Thompson_2SP Manuel _3SP Fisher _4SP Vazquez _5SP Ondrusek _CLR Lutz


Louisville Starters

LF Coats _CF Dickerson _RF Bruce
3B Griffin _SS Janish _2B Bolivar _1B Rosales
C Hanigan _ACE Cueto _2SP Maloney _3SP Lecure _4SP Avery _5SP Gardner _CLR Roenicke

some guys will get shorted but get advanced to their respected levels just not starters, I pretty much based everything on stats to start the debate.

[mth123]

Good thread idea. Using your framework as a starting point, here is what I would change.

1. I'd flip flop Frazier and Cozart. Frazier looks like a fast track bat and a jump to A+ probably wouldn't hurt him. and Cozart had only a partial season at Dayton and it wouldn't hurt him to start there again.

2. I think the Reds will have at least one journeyman vet in the AAA rotation probably Shearn or maybe a 6 year free agent. LeCure probably need more time in AA and Manuel probably stays in the pen. They may add a 2nd vet and turn Gardner loose as well.

3. Vasquez needs to be on the 40 man and won't make it. Rule 5 loss?

4. Smit and Jukich fit in the AA rotation. There is a glut there. Some one goes in a deal. I'm guessing Ondrusek. He's pitching in fall leagues. Possibly to up his value???

[Kc61]

I would think Brandon Waring will get a spot somewhere, no? Justin Reed?

[icehole3]

Had to edit the Dayton lineup I forgot about Waring, who I like as the Prospect to watch in 2008.

[icehole3]

good eye KC

[icehole3]

mth, just looking at the starters, what postion is the strongest thru the minors?

[Kc61]

Also, most of the Reds minor leagues use a DH rule, at least in some games. Makes sense to add a player at each level for the DH spot.

[mth123]

mth, just looking at the starters, what postion is the strongest thru the minors?

Probably OF. Bruce alone makes that happen IMO. I also think Frazier and maybe Waring and Francisco will eventually end-up there. Behind them you have Dorn, Stubbs and Dickerson and even Rosales, Valaika and Griffin as probable multi position guys who play some OF and that pretty much represents all the best position players in the system.

[OnBaseMachine]

Todd Frazier should be in Sarasota, at worst, to begin the 2008 season. And Drew Stubbs should be in Chattanooga. He'll be 23 years old, no need to keep him in a very pitcher friendly league at age 23.

[dougdirt]

Todd Frazier should be in Sarasota, at worst, to begin the 2008 season. And Drew Stubbs should be in Chattanooga. He'll be 23 years old, no need to keep him in a very pitcher friendly league at age 23.

I agree completely, but I bet neither happens.

[mth123]

Todd Frazier should be in Sarasota, at worst, to begin the 2008 season. And Drew Stubbs should be in Chattanooga. He'll be 23 years old, no need to keep him in a very pitcher friendly league at age 23.

Agree on Frazier. Disagree on Stubbs. Stubbs hasn't shown enough with the stick to justify skipping a level.

[mth123]

Looking at this again and I don't see Travis Wood. He starts out in A+ IMO.

If Sean Watson isn't in a rotation, he's a closer someplace.

[Kc61]

Agree on Frazier. Disagree on Stubbs. Stubbs hasn't shown enough with the stick to justify skipping a level.

Agree. (Fact that FSL is a pitchers league doesn't justify skipping the league -- it didn't seem to bother Jay Bruce very much.)

The Frazier/Cozart thing is interesting. Maybe because he signed early, Cozart played in the more advanced league this year. He's also the better fielding shortstop. Yet it's hard to see keeping Frazier's bat at the Midwest level for the next year. He just appears to be too advanced.

[dougdirt]

Agree. (Fact that FSL is a pitchers league doesn't justify skipping the league -- it didn't seem to bother Jay Bruce very much.)

The Frazier/Cozart thing is interesting. Maybe because he signed early, Cozart played in the more advanced league this year. He's also the better fielding shortstop. Yet it's hard to see keeping Frazier's bat at the Midwest level for the next year. He just appears to be too advanced.

Comparing other prospects to Jay Bruce isn't really a good way to look at things. Since 2000 began Jay Bruce is just 1 of 2 guys 20 or younger to OPS over .900 in that league and no one was within 40 points of him.

[icehole3]

I felt Chattanooga's rotation would go something like this

Thompson
Manuel
Fisher
Vazquez
Ondrusek
Wood
Watson

some sort of a combination of 7 guys

[mth123]

Rotations:

AAA - Cueto, Maloney, Shearn, Minor League FA, Minor League FA.

AA - Thompson, Fisher, Lecure, Avery, Jukich

A+ - Wood, Watson, Gonzalez, Smit, Ondrusek

A- - Guerrero, Carroll, Arneson, Smith, Del Rosario

Probably a lot of guys in and out at A-.

Not sure if Gardner or Vazquez fit anywhere but maybe keep Vazquez. You could make a case for both at AA. Ondrusek, Smit and Wood may have a shot at AA as well. There is a crowd of guys in that area - either repeating A+ or going to AA. There will be a lot of movement IMO. Depending on what he Reds do, you may see Bailey in AAA as well.

[icehole3]

Do you guys agree with my ACE's?

[mth123]

Comparing other prospects to Jay Bruce isn't really a good way to look at things. Since 2000 began Jay Bruce is just 1 of 2 guys 20 or younger to OPS over .900 in that league and no one was within 40 points of him.

I agree that he isn't Jay Bruce. He really doesn't have to be. Still, what possible reason could there be to skip this kid a level? He needs to start showing some dominance on the field. I know he had a good second half at A-. IMO a good half after such a poor start in a league that he's kind of advanced for isn't something that screams fast track. If he'd ripped the ball out of the gate, I'd be more inclined to say challenge him until he struggles. He's already struggled - a lot. Now he needs to prove it at each level IMO. I'd sooner start Frazier at AA.

[bucksfan2]

I think Shern may be the #5 starter for the reds when they break camp. He isn't going to set the world on fire but I wouldn't doubt if he gets the nod and Belisle ends up back in the pen. I want to see what Belisle can do when he focuses on one inning.

[mth123]

I think Shern may be the #5 starter for the reds when they break camp. He isn't going to set the world on fire but I wouldn't doubt if he gets the nod and Belisle ends up back in the pen. I want to see what Belisle can do when he focuses on one inning.

I doubt it. I think the Reds invested a year in Belisle to get his innings base under him and let him take his lumps (something almost all starters need to do - especially when coming off of a few years not working as a starter). Now is the time to really find out what he can do IMO. Shearn is rightfully viewed as an insurance policy to be stashed at AAA until he's needed when all the preferred options are unavailable.

[OnBaseMachine]

Travis Wood needs to be in Sarasota. If Sean Watson begins next season as a starter then I think he should get about 8-10 starts in Sarasota and then get a promotion to Chattanooga if he earns it. OTOH, he should begin the season in Chattanooga if he is converted back to a reliever.

[camisadelgolf]

Personally, I'd put Ondrusek, Vazquez, Avery, Gressick, Del Rosario, Drew Bowman, Brandon Rice, Steve Otterness, Luis Montano, etc. in the bullpen until the rookie leagues start up. I'm too lazy to try to project the lineups, but here is what I'd like to see for the starting rotations:

AAA
Johnny Cueto
Matt Maloney
Tom Shearn
Carlos Fisher
Sam LeCure

AA
Daryl Thompson
Sean Watson
Alex Smit
Ben Jukich
Travis Webb

A+
Travis Wood
Juan Rafael
Rafael Gonzalez
Jordan Smith
Jamie Arneson

A
Kyle Lotzkar
Evan Hildebrandt
Scott Carroll
Tzu-Kai Chiu
Josh Ravin/Harris Honeycutt

[icehole3]

Fisher at AAA? He got slammed to hard after a truly impressive start. I like him still as a huge prospect. What about him at AA with a quick advance? I also think that our young South American prospect pitchers are going to do some damage in Dayton

[camisadelgolf]

Fisher at AAA? He got slammed to hard after a truly impressive start. I like him still as a huge prospect. What about him at AA with a quick advance? I also think that our young South American prospect pitchers are going to do some damage in Dayton

I think that would be ideal, but I prefer letting young players who might actually have an impact on the Reds take up minor league roster spots over AAAA journeyman who are already way past their primes.

[Kc61]

Comparing other prospects to Jay Bruce isn't really a good way to look at things. Since 2000 began Jay Bruce is just 1 of 2 guys 20 or younger to OPS over .900 in that league and no one was within 40 points of him.

My point is that if all prospect hitters skip the FSL, what's the point of the Reds being in that league. High-A ball serves the purpose of giving a hitter some exposure to tougher pitching before the big jump to AA. Somebody like Stubbs should be able to benefit from that.

The reference to Bruce is just to show that it is possible to hit well in the FSL. A top prospect should be able to handle it.

[OnBaseMachine]

Stubbs is no spring chicken. Dude is 23 years old, he doesn't need to be babied.

[mth123]

Stubbs is no spring chicken. Dude is 23 years old, he doesn't need to be babied.

I don't want to hold him back to baby him. I want to make him earn his promotions. He hasn't really done much yet.

[Aronchis]

I would baby Lecure and move Fisher. Fish's late start in pitching cost him last year when he got exposed by the AA guys. Honing up his stuff may move him along faster. Lecure, on the otherhand needs to improve his fastball command more than Fisher.

[Mario-Rijo]

I'll give it a shot, although I am not the best on the pitchers mainly at the lower levels and especially in the pen. This is what I think will happen not necc. my preference. But I would agree with most of it.


Billings:
C - J. Bour
1B - E. Contreras
2B - K. Feiner
SS - N. Soto
3B - B. Bartles
OF - B. Menchacha
OF - J. Reed
OF - M. Jones

Dayton:
C - E. Rodriguez
1B - M. McKennon
2B - Z. Cozart
SS - T. Frazier (His bat plays at A+, but his Def. needs assessed)
3B - B. Waring
OF - K. Maunus
OF - K. Jones
OF - D. Phipps

Sarasota:
C - C. Kroski
1B - L. Parker
2B - J. Turner
SS - C. Valaika
3B - J. Francisco (Needs refinement but may advance)
OF - C. Heisey
OF - D. Stubbs
OF - C. Kainer

Chattanooga:
C - M. Perez (If Re-Signed, if not C. Tatum)
1B - T. Gutierrez
2B - D. Andersen
SS - Jo. Castro (Not Juan but should be)
3B - M. DeJesus (?)
OF - D. Dorn
OF - S. Henry
OF - S. Cumberland

Louisville:
C - R. Hanigan
1B - A. Rosales
2B - L. Bolivar
SS - P. Janish
3B - M. Griffin
OF - B. Coats
OF - C. Dickerson
OF - J. Bruce

[HokieRed]

Nobody's mentioning Bobby Livingston. What do we know about his condition? Is there any chance he's trying a rehab by spring? if so, seems to me you've got to figure him in somewhere.

[Superdude]

Fish's late start in pitching cost him last year when he got exposed by the AA guys.

Didn't that have to do with a tired arm or was that just a Redszone.com theory? If I remember right, Fisher dominated AA for a while before imploding towards the end of the season.

[dougdirt]

Fisher did talk about having a tired arm in one of the Chattanooga newspapers and after that point, he got roughed up a bit the rest of the way.

[mth123]

Nobody's mentioning Bobby Livingston. What do we know about his condition? Is there any chance he's trying a rehab by spring? if so, seems to me you've got to figure him in somewhere.

Torn Labrum. Has to be viewed as unavailable until he proves otherwise.

[Superdude]

Fisher did talk about having a tired arm in one of the Chattanooga newspapers and after that point, he got roughed up a bit the rest of the way.

I'm still high on Fisher for that exact reason. Before the crap at the end of the season, Fisher was basically putting on a clinic towards every aspect of pitching. He was missing plenty of bats, keeping the ball on the ground, and throwing it over the plate. If he can get back to doing that, he might be the guy anchoring the middle of our rotation in the near future.

[JaxRed]

I don't know if it's indicative of "tired arm", (I know it's not indicative of being "exposed") but after Fischer's hot start of 7 games, he wasn't always mediocre.

He would bounce back and forth between hot/cold.

cold - Jun 16, 21, 27, Jul 2, Jul 7
Hot - July 18, 24, 29 ( 3 games with ERA about 1.90)
Cold - Aug 3, 9, 15, 21
Hot - Aug 26 and 31 (2 games ERA about 2.25)

At any rate, seing what Fisher brings (almost certainly to AA) will be one of the interesting questions for next year.