PDA

View Full Version : Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?



UPRedsFan
11-10-2007, 01:06 PM
With all the trade possibilities discussed involving Bailey and Cueto I have to know how many really believe it's smart for a small market team to trade away blue chip pitching prospects.

Pitching wins championships - I think most agree on that point (except for those people suggesting we trade Bailey for Cabrera!). I understand you have to give up talent to get talent and we need more pitching talent. But pitching is extremely expensive - note the $8 million we're all familiar with for EM. We're a small market team with limited ability to buy and keep expensive pitching. I believe if Castellini wants to make the Reds a long term contender - not a one or 2 year splash - he needs to make Bailey and Cueto untouchable unless a similarly young - talented arm is coming back in return. Trade any 2 or 3 of Votto, Hamilton, EE, Dunn, Gonzo for pitching. (As a fan I'd rather see Griffey retire here with a championship). But don't trade Bailey and Cueto.

AdamDunn
11-10-2007, 01:32 PM
Don't trade Votto, Bailey, Cueto, or Bruce unless it's a ridiculous deal you can't refuse. They will be good and cheap for years to come.

hippie07
11-10-2007, 02:53 PM
I'm so glad you started a "small market economics" thread because I've been wanting to do it for a while, but didn't want to bore everyone w/ my calculators and horn-rimmed glasses.

I'm an economics major - fiscal conversative and I'm all for the Reds trading Bruce, Cueto,and Bailey as long as the return means top-tier pitching ace(s) ...read Bedard, Kazmir, Peavey, Santana. Although, I don't think Santana would be the wisest economic move because I think he's only under contract for one more year. The other pitchers would be a decent choice for our economic status.
1. Bedard: Under Contract through 2009 - got paid $3.4 mil in 2007 but is eligible for arbitration the next 2 years - still would be very reasonable for an Ace pitcher
2. Kasmir: Under Contract through 2010 - got paid $0.4 mil in 2007 but is eligible for arbitrarion from here on out - still really reasonable!!!
3. Peavey: Under Contract through 2009 - '08 gets $6mil and '09 club option, he gets $8mil ... I think we can all agree that that's a bargain by today's standard

Yes, even though all three of these guys are more expensive than Bruce, Bailey, & Cueto they are ready NOW and can really contribute NOW, whereas our prospects aren't and won't be for a couple years. We've got Harang & Arroyo now and may not by the time Bruce, Bailey, Cueto have reached their full potential.

If we could manage landing two of (Bedard, Peavey, Kazmir) for some combo of Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, and some throw ins, then we definitely should. We need to spend some $$$ on a closer and maybe another reliever and then we have an excellent chance at winning the division - maybe more!!! The mix of our expensive players (Dunn, Griffey) w/ these cheaper Aces (specifically Bedard and Kazmir) and WINNING ... we will fill GABP for the next 2 years and will create amazing revenue that by the time we start having to cough up more money for these newly acquired starters we might actually be able afford them and maybe not have to worry so much about "small market economics" afterall.... it's called turning around an organization, my friends :-)

Doro
11-10-2007, 03:15 PM
I agree with the above posters.... unless you can get a proven starting pitcher (that isnt at the end of his career) I would hold onto them. I would be more likely to move Votto or Bruce but thats just because we seem to cycle offensive players pretty regularly here and not so much pitchers.

BEETTLEBUG
11-10-2007, 03:16 PM
NO

ChatterRed
11-10-2007, 04:54 PM
I don't want to trade Bailey and Cueto for some unproven major league pitcher with potential like Garza.

But if you can get someone with a 4-7 year track record of success like Bedard, Kazmir or Peavy........that's a whole 'nother story. I'm still not sold on Bailey anyway.

AmarilloRed
11-10-2007, 07:08 PM
I think both Bailey and Cueto have the potential to be top of the rotation starters. However, Bailey needs to work some more on his off-speed pitches and Cueto needs to spend some more time at AAA. I would only trade either pitcher if we could get a proven top of the rotation starter who can win now.

Vada Pinson Fan
11-10-2007, 08:13 PM
UPR- Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

NO. If the Reds trade any of the up and coming young players named Bruce,Votto, Bailey, Cueto and Maloney we will soon regret the trade(s) for years to come.

I want the Reds to be smart and pay fairly for pitching. Not overpaying for it. We have several players other teams want. It's time for WK to show his poker face, be patient (but not overly so) and be the competent GM I think he can be. This is Krivsky's chance to make an incredible mark on this team the way Bob Howsam did in the late 1960's and early 70's as the Reds General Manager.

UPRedsFan
11-10-2007, 08:42 PM
Agreed. But I'd let Votto go for pitching talent.

redsfanmia
11-10-2007, 09:35 PM
Deal them both before they are revealed as frauds IE all the Reds pitching prospects since Tom Browning.

AdamDunn
11-10-2007, 10:12 PM
Deal them both before they are revealed as frauds IE all the Reds pitching prospects since Tom Browning.

Yes... and while we're at it, let's add a rule that the Reds are not allowed to have a winning season for the next ten years.

GoReds33
11-10-2007, 10:13 PM
As some have already said, the futures of these players is too high to deal them, unless the deal is rediculious.

redsfanmia
11-11-2007, 10:44 AM
Yes... and while we're at it, let's add a rule that the Reds are not allowed to have a winning season for the next ten years.

Current ownership and management will take care of that no need for a rule.

steig
11-11-2007, 11:03 AM
You should never rule a player to be untouchable. It seems that no team in baseball is willing to deal away top prospects no matter what the deal is offered. The refusal to deal top prospects make the prospects value higher than it may ever be again in their career. So, if a deal came for a big time pitcher, a number one, for a couple of top prospects and you could lock up the pitcher to a long term deal then the team should go for it. The only time a team shouldn't consider trading a top prospect is if they feel the player could be a once in a generation type of player. A player of the Griffey, Pujols, or Pay-Rod level. For that I don't think Bruce should be traded for any player. But Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Hamilton, etc; I would trade them for a big time pitcher like Santana :pray:. I wouldn't deal prospects of their caliber for a pitcher like Dontrelle Willis who has had more than one 'off' year.

ChatterRed
11-11-2007, 04:00 PM
Bob Howsam not only grew some good players in our farm system, but he also traded for some good players too. The Big Reds Machine wasn't just Pete Rose and Johnny Bench.

And I agree with whoever said the Reds track record of developing starting pitchers isn't that good. We could be overvaluing Bailey and Cueto and passing up a deal for better pitching before they reveal they aren't that good. Their stock will never be higher than now, unless they pan out.........and that remains to be seen.

hippie07
11-11-2007, 07:59 PM
Bob Howsam not only grew some good players in our farm system, but he also traded for some good players too. The Big Reds Machine wasn't just Pete Rose and Johnny Bench.

And I agree with whoever said the Reds track record of developing starting pitchers isn't that good. We could be overvaluing Bailey and Cueto and passing up a deal for better pitching before they reveal they aren't that good. Their stock will never be higher than now, unless they pan out.........and that remains to be seen.

Thank you!!! I just have this sinking feeling about Reds pitching prospects .... lets trade them now while they have an excellent value ... while none of their weaknesses have been exposed or injury overtakes them... SELL HIGH! Granted, only trade them for an excellent SP return, but if you can get that, trade them!

I remember a few years again being incedibly excited about the Red's minor league player of year - a pitcher who had just blow away the competition the previous season - I went running to score his autograph and proudly kept it in a safe place... who was this guy? .... Richie Gardner... wow!!

Please Reds, don't feel pressured by the sentimental folks that suffer from trade-phobia ... if you can get excellent starting pitching in return- trade them! Someone made the point that everyone's been asking for top prospects and no one is willing to trade them.. we can benefit from this market: high demand, low supply - capitalize on it Wayne... you know you want to!!!

AmarilloRed
11-11-2007, 11:26 PM
I do not want to. The Reds have had a bad history of developing pitching in their minor league system, but that is because Marge Schott gutted the minor league system and the Reds refused to pay draft picks what they were worth. With the proper management in place, there is simply no reason why Bailey and Cueto cannot be the top of the rotation starters the Reds have been looking for a cheap price for a long time to come. By 2009 we could have Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto and Belisle all in our rotation all with the potential to be good for a long time.

hippie07
11-12-2007, 12:37 AM
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush ....
I'd rather have Bedard or Kazmir than Bailey & Cueto ...

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
11-12-2007, 01:46 AM
Current ownership and management will take care of that no need for a rule. If you are so bitter and obviously have no hope for a turnaround for this team or it's front office then why bother following the Reds. If I were under the impression that the big wigs that ran the company that I worked were idiots and there was no hope, I would probably find another job, and I definately wouldn't linger on the company website. Your worse than the guy in Major League who insists they'll blow it in the playoffs, your the guy that says they'll never make it there in the first place.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
11-12-2007, 01:48 AM
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush ....
I'd rather have Bedard or Kazmir than Bailey & Cueto ...

Unless the two birds in the bush can save you enough money for a bird in the hand down the road.

hippie07
11-12-2007, 02:18 AM
Unless the two birds in the bush can save you enough money for a bird in the hand down the road.

Lol - I don't really understand your post, but I guess I get the gist of it.

I'm not talking about trading Bailey or Cueto for like a 3rd cather or something like that, I'm talking about only trading them for an excellent starting pitcher. Take Kazmir for example. Check out his line http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=431148
Everytime I check out his profile I drool ... he'd be like having a left-handed Aaron Harang on the team... and that's "now and actual" and not "potential and maybe." If the Rays would take Bailey straight-up for Kazmir... I just think you gotta do that deal. Kazmir is cheap and under control for the next three years. I don't see the downside.

I would be elated if WK worked out a deal for Kazmir including Bailey and 2 prospects that wouldn't hurt too bad ... I can't see how people could be upset about that.. but, I guess everyone's entitled to their own opinion

UPRedsFan
11-12-2007, 04:21 PM
It's a short term vs. long term question. If you are only concerned about short term 08 and 09, then absolutely yes, Wayne should trade them both right now for Kazmir or Bedard or better.

But that may not be the best decision longer term. If Castellini is committed to bringing year in, year out winning records and playoff contention teams then you don't trade 2 Ace potential prospects this close in their development path to the majors. You keep them until they're too expensive to sign like the Twins did with Santana and the Padres with Peavy.

Don't forget, Wayne will also have to pay big contracts in a few years to keep Phillips, Votto, Bruce, Encarnacion, Hamilton, Dunn - whoever he decides to keep and not trade, that is.

Vada Pinson Fan
11-12-2007, 09:42 PM
Bob Howsam not only grew some good players in our farm system, but he also traded for some good players too. The Big Reds Machine wasn't just Pete Rose and Johnny Bench.

And I agree with whoever said the Reds track record of developing starting pitchers isn't that good. We could be overvaluing Bailey and Cueto and passing up a deal for better pitching before they reveal they aren't that good. Their stock will never be higher than now, unless they pan out.........and that remains to be seen.

Chatterred- Man don't I know it. Bob Howsam traded away my favorite player of all-time for Bobby Tolan and Wayne Granger. Begrudgingly, I had to give Mr. Howsam credit for a good trade (albeit I did that 10 years later, :censored:, LOL!!!)

Remember RHSP Wayne Simpson? I thought Wayne was going to be the next Bob Gibson. History has taught us there simply isn't a "next" anyone. Which brings me to Bailey, Cueto and Maloney. To the extent these guys eventually turn out, is a roll of the dice. It looked like Dumatrait was going to be good BEFORE he was called up and then he pitched like a bum while in Cincinnati. Too bad the front office and the scouting department didn't recognize Dumatrait's shortcomings and we could have gotten something for him instead of having Pittsburgh claim him with zero in return.

I have to believe with the turnover in Reds ownership and front office people occurring, on average, every 8-10 years since the Williams Brothers/Howsam era to the present day, the recognition of better college pitching (I wouldn't draft high school pitchers) should be improving for this ownership. At least I hope so.

If Lindner/Allen?/Bowden hadn't screwed up so badly- Kazmir should of been a Red instead of Gruller(sp?), if memory serves correctly.

In closing, I think we all agree the Reds haven't had this kind of pitching talent (quality and quantity) in many, many years.
Despite what happened with Dumatrait, I keep Bailey, Cueto, Maloney as well as Bruce, Votto and possibly Hamilton unless Hamilton+ brings a Bedard or Kazmir. Santana would be a Christmas present beyond dreams. I would trade Griffey, Freel, Hatteberg, maybe Hamilton, Todd Coffey, Majewski and possibly Belisle in any offers if it gets us the pitching we need.

Can't wait until the Winter Meetings to see what shakes out!

Best Wishes,
Vada Pinson Fan